Monday, August 24, 2015

September 1, 2015 The latest FBI email server dump of Hillary Clinton's server revealed 150 more documents flagged extremely serious handling of classified information. The FBI "A-team" is leading the investigation. This news comes on top of earlier FBI revelations that at least 300 classified documents passed through her private, email server, which intelligence officials are almost certain was easily hacked multiple times by Iran, Russia, China, ISIS, and others. At least two messages found in Clinton's system were already deemed top secret (the highest level of classification) when she received them. But it really does not matter whether a document was classified secret before or after Hilary Clinton read it. The server must be secure specifically because many documents are classified secret after they are received. Hilary Clinton even knew that all White House and foreign correspondences were classified even before they were stamped. Hillary Clinton is beginning to look stupid as well as corrupt. It is time for her to take her ill gotten gains and retire from politics. Hilary Clinton’s stupidity and corruption is a destabilizing force for the Obama administration and for confidence in the economy.

We do not expect an immediate second plunge of the stock market until at least next week.  Most investors do not recognize that the US economy has peaked and do not believe China can pull the US down.   We have a DJI floor of 15871 and other floors under the other averages that will not be broken today.  Too many investors still think the “stupid party” has turned the economy around and they do not understand that QE is what flooded the stock market with cash and it will take time for the market to lose all that cash.
            Walmart cut employee hours to save money and avoid Obama’s socialist health care program costs.  Their big ego socialist CEO favors forcing church marriages for NAMBLA members over freedom of religion.  He works for what has now become a corrupt crony capitalist company that avoids social responsibilities that decent and moral corporation boards insist upon.
          Construction spending finally reached the level it had during the Bush administration ten years ago in 2005.  The Obama administration has falsely claimed there has been a US economic recovery while blaming China and Europe currency moves for the flat lined data.  You have to be stupid to believe the stupid party.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction
         The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in August to its weakest in over two years, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).   Its index of national factory activity fell to 51.1 from 52.7 the month before, marking the lowest reading in twenty seven months. The reading was lower than expected give all the Obama hype about his imaginary American recovery.
            August 31, 2015   When something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.  Funds, which typically promised low interest rates but safety amid turmoil, have mostly failed to deliver prompting investors to pull their money out.  These funds, grew rapidly in the face of growing fears of rising interest rates in 2013, but have lost 0.7 percent in the past month and 1.4 percent in the past year, according to Morningstar Inc. data.   As for reliable U.S. government bonds they a gained 0.2 percent during August, while stocks globally plunged 5.9 percent.
            This current rally will probably last another week.   We estimate there will be about four more bear market intervals with three as much as -15% each before a new bull market begins.   Suddenly most of the commentators are flip-flopping negative.  Jim Cramer has suddenly become very pessimistic and is doing his best to rationalize why he did not see a bear market coming.   Consumer sentiment is not as high now as it was when the last bear market began in 2007.
            In China the communists are now rounding up people who have negative views of the Chinese economy.  We who live in the free-world are so fortunate.   Like a field worker, when an economy works hard it perspires waste and gets filthy with waste.  It must take a pause for a bath, to rest, and to plan for another day.  Some make fatal errors and long for the days when everyone foraged each day and did not wear themselves out.  Corporations need to take a bath now.
            Bulls minus bears is approach zero meaning more people are still joining the sellers all the time so it is getting less likely any rally will be significant.
            It is unlikely that gold will begin to rebound for one or two years.  China and India have vast stockpiles to unload at higher prices.
            Developing countries are now suffering historic losses.
            August 28, 2015   We examined earlier rallies in bear markets typically they rise 5% to 7% over two to three weeks.  This however has been a relatively short but dramatic decline so investors may be inclined to think this first decline of the new bear market may not be over.  That is why the first rally in a bear market could last another week or two and not even wipe out the first decline.  In the mean time the Obama administration continues to release economic nonsense.  The FED must slightly raise their rates soon or lose all credibility because raising rates will allow them to reload their ammunition to fight recession.  Therefore the new economic optimistic nonsense of a 3.7% 2nd Quarter GDP rate should allow the FED to claim victory and raise rates just before the next leg of this bearish Stock market kicks in.
     Durable Orders Jul 2.0% fell -3.5% from 3.4% last month.
     Continuing Claims Aug rose to 2269K from 2254K
     Pending Home Sales Jul recovered 0.5% of the -1.8% loss last month but is still down 1.3% from May.
     Yet, GDP – The Second Estimate for Q2 was raised to +3.7% from +2.3%.  Therefore we predict the FED will act in September.  So far Quantitative Easing did little but make the rich richer and the poor and uneducated, poorer and more unemployable.  Nationalist Crony Capitalist Socialists and Communists have used work concentration camps that make slaves of the poor and lazy to punish that behavior.   Liberal national crony capitalist socialists encourage more fatherless families with their welfare system.  Socialism is gradually rotting America and the West morally and ethically.
            August 25, 2015   Yesterday the Dow was down 1000 points and today it was down another 200 after buyers got nervous again.  We estimate that all the money that went into the American stock markets since February 2, 2013 flowed back out in this past week.  That is based on our Market Cash Flow analysis.  But so far this panic gave a smaller percentage decline and smaller cash outflow than the panic in July of 2011.  And that will be exactly what many pundits will be saying in a few weeks when there will be a small rally.  But don’t believe them.  The coming rally may recover 50% to 75% of the decline and fool many investors.  But the short sellers will be out in force again and that small rally will likely be the only significant rally until sometime between January and April 2016. 
          When the current rally ends we expect the next new low that is hit this year will be the one when Jim Cramer and others say sell-sell-sell.  The current decline will quite likely be followed by three or four larger declines before the truth comes out that we are in another “Obama Recession.”  Of course Obama will blame it on someone else but everyone in the world knows this administration has been the most incompetent in American history and has shown no leadership and given no hope of continuing world peace.  Given another year in office Obama could even turn the recession into a depression or precipitate WWIII.  
            Today it became evident that Donald Trump’s message is getting stale and he is losing his audience after 15 minutes to boredom.  After 15 minutes most were not paying attention and many were talking to each other.  Trump is getting over exposed and needs more ideas or fewer national speeches.
         Alibaba has lost about half its market value since the IPO.  If China wants to truly advance and join the US and Europe they need to give Hong Kong their democratic self government back.  It is interesting and a very good sign that China has stopped building islands that encroach on the free international water channels.  The Chinese are wonderful people and have done well in America.  Perhaps this recent bad experience China has had manipulating their stock market will encourage their government to give self-determination back to Hong Kong!  Then China probably would not stagnate but would likely have the spirit necessary to be successful with free-enterprise economics.
           Obama does not have a Teflon coat and that is why he uses court orders to hide his past.   He seems to hate the American founding fathers and that tells a lot about his lack of intelligence and character.  Most Americans are just ignorant of our American foundation in laws but apparently Obama thinks the worst about the founders.  Obama acts like he doesn’t know that slavery and genocide are still rampant in Africa today.   Before 1830, during British slave trade, the tribes in Africa sold their neighboring tribal prisoners to the British instead of just decapitating them or burning them alive as many of their religion still do to their neighboring enemies today.  The British saved many Africans from certain death until 1830 when they stopped the trade.  Slavery in America was better than living in Africa and better than even living today in Africa, Syria or Pakistan as virtual religious slaves.  The “stupid party” members are mentally slaves and too ignorant to know how lucky we are to live in a free western country like America.   It is a failure of universities that are run by socialists.   They are still a minority in America and if we are going to continue our free-enterprise system of our founding fathers we must take back our country from the stupid party socialists in 2016.
            August 24, 2015   At the present moment many investors have come to realize a bear market is in place.  But mental conditioning has started again.  The DJI was down over 1000 points this morning scaring the pants off of investors but it recovered most of that already.   The options market was frozen early in the morning as margin calls wiped out many investors.  It is predictable that when this selloff is over many investors will be conditioned to think it was only a correction and the Bull market is still in place.  That will give the big funds another chance to unload more stocks and to go short.   But the run up this time will likely be perhaps only one to three weeks and the next selloff will be much longer and deeper.  Again it is likely that the broad NYSE will end down 60% to 90% off its high some time between February and April 2016.  Margin calls will increase.
            By noon this bear was already being downplayed as a flash crash or discounted as a capitulation.  DOW 19,000 this year was being forecast by Siegel and Jim Cramer got a statement from Tim Cook that Apple was having high sales in China so China must be doing well!  What, me worry?  Not mad men and Jim Cramer!  Tim Cook is the last person any intelligent person would listen to.  The people screaming about the FED raising rates are heavily in debt and will be wiped out.  Companies like Apple have used funds to buy back stock to reduce outstanding stock and fool investors into thinking they are sound because they reduced their PE ratio.  Once rates begin to rise the cost of debt is going to weigh down the stocks of incompetent CEO’s who have bought back their stocks and then need to borrow.
            Therefore, we could get a rally of many depressed stocks but we believe the Bull market’s death leap will be short and a dangerous play.   Any rally is a time to get out, not get in, unless you have an exit plan in place.  Even Put and Option trading froze up this morning.
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Sunday, August 23, 2015

August 22, 2015 If you have read this blog over the last few years you know we use cash flow not price to monitor the market. We called the coming end of the bull market in October of 2014 with its earliest likely appearance being January of 2015, the most probable beginning of the Bear occurring around August 2015, and with Jim Crammer folding and yelling sell-sell-sell by the end of October 2015. We have predicted there will be a 60% to 90% decline in the NYSE index during this bear market that apparently just started this week. Earlier this week we reported that investors were suddenly being mentally conditioned to buy into an imminent bear market because after big early day corrections the bears were allowing the markets to recover so that the average investor would be conditioned to buy into the bear market so the bears could make a bigger killing. We know people from China and other countries have been monitoring this blog because they sometimes have sent questions. We know the corrupt Obama administration monitored this blog and had the IRS harass us just as they harassed thousands of churches, historical societies and others that they could not influence.


            China in 2015 is Japan in 1989.   Cultural socialism and a paternalistic near-sighted government are their common weaknesses.  China and Japan go by the book but books are past wisdom and innovation needs vision.  We believe we have seen the end to China’s spectacular western style industrialization.   Further Western type innovation will require free-enterprise thinking that is out of the sanctioned socialist thinking box.   Socialism is based on copying the technology created by free-enterprise.  At best they usually can only stay 30 to 50 years behind America.

              The death knell for China’s economy was when they were small minded and took away Hong Kong’s democracy.   Paternalistic socialist societies are excellent at cheating and copying.  That is why so many score so high on tests.   Many Americans have witnessed that at universities. Since 1990 (25 years) Japan’s economy and stock market has gone nowhere.   Now China will retrench like Japan because free enterprise requires innovation not copying other people or pirating patents and ideas.  During WWII America allowed Japan to steal naval plans that were doctored so when Japan blindly copied them the centers of gravity of their ships were too high so the ships capsized in storms.  It worked!  They copied the ship plans without thinking!

            If America continues with “stupid party” socialist, the USA will go down the tubes to socialist stagnation along with Japan, Russia, S, Korea, China and most of the world. 

            Since God’s CEO gifts to America sought to repress the Second Amendment, freedom of religion, to try to force churches have to serve NAMBLA needs or lose their US Constitutional protections, their corporation stocks have not been doing very well.

Twitter and Yelp stock are down over 50%

Apple and Gap stock are down over 25%

Walmart and Gap stock are down over15%
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Monday, August 17, 2015

August 21, 2015 Yesterday, the broad NYSE broke below 10660 as we warned and the bear market is now being recognized. All the indices followed suit. This decline should exceed 10% but the next decline will be much deeper if our analysis is correct. Also, the financial sector is again the economy’s weakest link. The Obama administration has bankrupted the American economy creating $18 Trillion of new government debt and flooding the stock market not the economy with Quantitative Easing. That QE cash has been wasted on CEO salaries and low interest rate stock buy-backs which have zero economic benefit and create a smoke screen of income statement value that is all smoke and no value. QE has been nothing but FED economic eyewash. That eyewash hides the fact that the “Emperor has no clothes” the economy is naked and the Financial Sector is nothing but a stock valuation bubble that is about to implode!

            We expect that after about a 10% decline there will be a rally.  A more serious decline will follow that rally and will likely be followed with a series of market price drops with small and diminishing rallies that will punish investors who in the past profited from the rallies.  That punishment will cause investors to get out and stay out until they are convinced a bottom has been set in place.   We expect the total decline will be between 60% and 90% and banks will be on the rocks again because we have an incompetent administration that may chose to “break the buck” and create huge losses for fixed interest funds especially Pension funds.  That is a “stupid party” socialist way to punish the savers to bail out the government spenders.   After all, investors are thought by the “stupid party” socialists to be the rich and they don’t think it is fair that they have accumulated savings.
            August 20, 2015   Today the business news lied again.  They said Existing Home Sales were at an eight year high.  But if you look at the data it is no higher than last year and four years ago and only half the level of 2006 which was the peak year due to the Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan market where they forced banks to meet percent quotas for home sales to minorities.   Later there were over 2000 defaults in the worst month and squatters ended up burning down thousands of homes in cities like Detroit.  Home ownership in the US declined 4% so far under Obama and his “Stupid Party” socialist crony capitalism.  The Nationalist Socialists Party of Germany was socialist and controlled the economy via crony capitalism, a socialist corruption of free enterprise.
            The Leading Indicators for July fell -0.2% from 0.6% last month forecasting another economic slowdown beginning.  The stock market is always one of the first to decline.
            The business news folks are looking for a reason for the coming bear market and are clueless so they will probably blame the FED.   We can tell you it is clearly the overwhelming incompetence of the Obama socialist crony capitalist administration.  America cannot afford politicians of the ilk of those who are bankrupting Greece and America.  The world cannot afford losing America as the rock for peace and economic stability.  America has never had hyperinflation.  The closest we got to that was in the gold mining towns during the Gold Rush.  America cannot afford the NY and Mass socialists who are the architects of intellectual stupidity and a failed socialist educational system.  America cannot afford to have unions controlling school systems and state and federal government or government institutions.   We need another Ronald Reagan who busted up the air traffic controller’s union.  Prior to 1955 we did not have socialist controlled state and federal unions.  America was number 1 in education from 1945 to 1963.  Now we are number 26 and have schools primarily to babysit the children of socialists who have no desire to work for a living.  The rich crony capitalists love socialism and send their children to private schools because they are a class conscious exclusive society who thinks they are better than people who create and are productive.
            The market has been supported not by real growth but by the $4 Trillion in Obama QE and the $18 Trillion Obama deficit that has provided cash for crony capitalists to buy back their stock thereby artificially raising profits and stock prices.  But the QE has ended and Keynesian economics has failed once more.  We are going to see a severe contraction soon as the market plummets and the artificial wealth evaporates.
            August 19, 2015   A close below 10660 on the NYSE in the near future would confirm the sell warning we gave last October only this time it would indicate the major market decline is beginning.  That decline would cause many bears to get active short selling.  But we expect the bulls to claim another bear capitulation at the bottom and Jim Cramer will again be one of the last to understand the market’s sell message.
            Incompetence at the highest levels of China’s government is causing the largest outflow of foreign funds in the history of China.  The government tried to attract investors by running up China’s stock prices thinking it would increase the wealth of the home population and stimulate their consumer economy to keep growth and employment high.   Instead the egregious upward manipulation of stock prices panicked international investors and they sold out causing a record outflow of foreign currency driving the Yuan lower.  High prices became the best reason for selling off Chinese investments.  The incompetent communist manipulators are now panicking to keep the economy afloat.  We do not expect a recovery for them until the Chinese markets hit at least a two-year record low and investors see value again.
            Hilary Clinton and Obama put an innocent Jewish film maker in prison as part of their Benghazi cover-up.   I viewed the film that was still publicly available on the internet and saw that the film maker was truthful and innocent as far as I could tell.  Yes he showed that Mohammed took a bride who was only 9 years old but Muslims know that is true and to this day they take brides as young as nine years old.  That Jewish man was thrown in Jail without due process because Obama and Hillary out of stupidity and incompetence did not have US embassies on alert that year on the anniversary of the 9-11 attack.
            The airline industry is now overheated and passing its peak.  Oil prices appear to be bottoming out for now but Iranian oil will be ramping up while most other production is being curtailed.  It is still not a good time for energy companies.
            US housing Starts Jul were 1206K up slightly from 1204K.  But building Permits for Jul 1119K down sharply (over 20%) from 1337K.   While permits are down and housing starts are up they are both well below the levels before the Senator Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan fraud that permitted people without the means to buy houses and then default thus precipitating the Obama 7-year recession.
            Wal-Mart will remain an investment disaster until they rid themselves of a CEO who hates the American Bill of Rights. 
 
August 18, 2015   The WSJ reported today that American banks are using a new gimmick to meet bank reserve requirements by using high risk hedging from groups which themselves are at high risk.  
            Once again the “Dog of the Day” is Wal-Mart.  Wal-Mart’s revenue was reported today as declining while costs are increasing.  That is because Wal-Mart’s CEO has taken a position against the Constitutions freedoms in the bill of rights and is interested in NAMBLA’s freedoms.   Walmart’s CEO therefore attacks the religious beliefs of the very consumers that were responsible for Wal-Mart’s past success.
            The computer breach at the IRS in which thieves stole tax information was raised by another 220,000 people.
Citigroup will fork over $180 million to settle charges that it misled investors about the risks of two hedge funds that collapsed during the Obama/Dodd/Frank liar loan mortgage meltdown.
The home price index is still 15% below when Obama took office.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case
Empire (NYC) Manufacturing fell sharply by -14.9 in Aug from a typical level of 3.9 
            It is a growing opinion that the following companies are now part of the organized political and moral corruption of crony capitalism and that the Obama administration probably cleared their attack on American Religious freedom this past spring.   (Apple, Wal-Mart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike).  Their CEO’s deceive themselves into thinking they are Gods gift to America.   We would not touch their stocks at this time based on the corruption implicit in their cronyism with the current corrupt manipulative administration.  Hitler’s gay Stormtroopers thought they were God’s gift to Germany too. 
            August 17, 2015   The “Stupid Party” elite still have their heads screwed on backwards.  They can’t get anything straight.  Today in the WSJ Opinion section on page 9, Mary Anastasia O’Grady attacked Donald Trump’s economics saying that Trump thinks the leaders of China and Mexico are geniuses.  That was not what Trump said at all.  Trump said the problem is that the American government’s leaders are stupid, corrupt crony capitalist socialists.  The leaders of China and Mexico only seem like geniuses by comparison.  Socialists love corrupt capitalists because they cannot control great industrial free-enterprise capitalists who would rather retire than work with the corrupt “Stupid Party” socialists.   Kenneth D. Lewis, the capitalist who built Bank of America is a good example of an honest banker who would not play ball with Obama/Holder.   The Chairwoman of the Democrat Party still cannot explain the difference between the “Stupid Party” and corrupt socialists.  That is obviously because there is no difference.
            Sentiment in America is still 10% lower than before Obama took office and 45% lower than it was before the Clinton Dot-Com bubble broke in March of 2000.
            China’s economy is tanking and losses are mounting due to the socialist manipulation of markets that only work in country’s with free and honest leaders.  Even Alibaba is in sinking sand.
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Monday, August 10, 2015

August 14, 2015 Trump today said what this blog has been saying for years. The current Presidential administration is filled with stupid and corrupt incompetent people, mostly socialists. Bravo! He also said the same about most of the Republicans and Socialists in Congress. Philip Bump says Trump is not a modern candidate but is actually similar to Ronald Reagan. Bump meant that remark to be derogatory but most Americans want a President like Ronald Regan again. Regan was originally a Democrat who believed free-enterprise is better than socialism so he switched to Republican.

Candidate Dr. Ben Carson said Margret Sanger is the racist who created Planned Parenthood to reduce the population of African Americans who are aborted at a rate three times higher than Whites.  Abortion was opposed until research studies proved that abortions primarily reduce the black population by 3 black to 1 white child.  Only then did it become legal in Texas and many Bible belt states that previously were pro-life.   The courts have now decided it is discrimination to refuse to bake a wedding cake on the basis of the Constitutional right to religious freedom but it is ok to kill the unborn that is 3 to 1 discrimination against a minority.
            Ever notice on TV that when Hilary speaks all the officials behind her are bored out of their minds or falling asleep?
            Industrial Production in July increased 0.4% from the rate in June.  But sales must not have increased because Business Inventories rose 0.8%.
            Both import and export prices declined in July indicating deflationary pressure as the economy slowly falls into a deflationary spiral that could become an Obama depression.
            August 13, 2015   Americans are tired of the “Stupid Party’s” incompetence and corruption and that is why Donald Trump is becoming more popular.  Once they see Donald Trump’s wife, Melania Trump, talk they will realize that Trump’s wife is more intelligent than Hilary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren combined.  But that does not mean Donald Trump will win.  A great leader will naturally draw the support of a highly competent team of advisors.  Eisenhower and Regan attracted and selected highly competent teams.  Donald Trump has yet to start putting together a team for governing America.  Obama has a team of about two dozen idiots he likes to call his Tsars (named after the Russian tyrants).   New leadership is needed to put America and the world back on a path of growth.   Sore loser Senator Lindsey Graham is an example of several professional do nothing Republicans who need to be replaced as well.
            The recent market moves seem to be conditioning investors to let their guard down because each -2% daily decline has been fully recovered in the afternoon so novice investors are conditioned to buy in.  When the manipulators execute a -4% or a -6% plunge all the novices will be sucked in by -2% and then show immediate large losses.  That will likely trigger a panic sell-off and a potential decline steeper than last October. 
            Four of the five indices we follow have given sell signals.   Only the NASDAQ has not shown a topping out of cash flow into that market although that sell signal seems to be forming. 
            The MBA Mortgage Index as of August 8 fell to 0.1% from 4.7% 
            Job Openings as of Jun fell to 5.249 from 5.363M
            The Treasury Budget deficit for July grew 50% to -$149.2B from -$94.6B 
 
            August 12, 2015   Many of China’s corporations are headed for bankruptcy and default.  While government debt is growing, so is corruption.  China is no longer a generator of growth; it is struggling now just to generate any growth. The decision to devalue their currency again over night provides many signals about what ails China.  China and other emerging economies now are struggling to generate any growth at all.  China's decision leaves the America as the only systemically important country willing to accept the strengthening of its currency.  China appears to have abandoned any attempt to be a world economic leader a step in the country’s multiyear journey toward a more efficient and responsive market-determined system.  In the short term, however, it will amplify the challenges to all global growth, and add retaliation and volatility to markets that have lost some of their fundamental anchoring.  Other countries have a choice: devalue, put tariffs on Chinese products, join China in printing more money, or have more imports and fewer exports.   That is Quantitative easing.  This is intense inflationary pressure and tariffs could lead to general depression.  That means it is time to say that Gold will probably begin to form a bottom if other nations join China with devaluations.
            If China bails out losing corporations and continues to manipulate their stock market, Americans and Europeans will withdraw from investing in China.   China will lose its growth in leadership just as Japan did in 1990 when Japan became addicted to Quantitative easing.  Japan has never recovered.   India will then replace China as the fastest growing third world country.
            America is on the same path of mediocrity and corruption that has brought down many leading nations in the past.   We have brain dead socialists running the “Stupid Party” and most universities.   Socialism is destroying America with corruption and layers of bureaucracy designed to facilitate kickbacks and government funding.  We see this administration attacking banks over and over, every time political kickbacks are wanted.  Corruption is what one gets with the incompetence of socialists.  The best American students cannot get A’s from the brain dead socialist professors unless they pretend to be socialist leaning.  The mediocre socialists like Elizabeth Warren get into the best Universities (lying and claiming she was a native Cherokee) and have their poor grades and their lies on their admission papers suppressed (as Obama did) with court orders.
            The American markets have further to fall now.
            August 11, 2015   China's central bank devalued the Yuan 1.9 % Tuesday and switched to a more market-determined benchmark for the currency's daily trading band.  A weaker Yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper and competing exports more expensive.  It is likely to cause other countries to follow suit and make American products look more expensive and cause the Obama economy to decline faster.  Could we be in for a full scale currency war?  We are still moving towards an Obama economic depression.  Only a new hope of economic and business competence and leadership can stop the decline in America.  And as America goes the world goes.   Donald Trump’s popularity grows because Americans know he tells the truth about the stupidity and racism of the current administration.          
            Obama’s second quarter Productivity and Unit Labor Costs showed absolutely absurd improvement swings of 4.4% and 6.2% respectively from the last first quarter release proving the administration remains grossly incompetent when it comes to anything arithmetic much less economic.  The stupid party incompetence has made the Republican Party presidential debates the most popularly viewed programs in political history.  
            The democrat socialist candidate, Bernie Sanders, was shouted down this week by black supporters of Hilary Clinton.  Bernie gets crowds ten times larger than Hilary Clinton’s but he believes all lives are important and Hillary supporters told him he was a racist because only black lives are allowed to be called important.
            Donald Trump’s popularity grows because Americans know he tells the truth about the stupidity and racism of the current administration.
            When asked what the difference was between Democrats and Socialists the chairman of the Democrat Party could not come up with anything. 
            China and Russia have socialist central planning run economies.  America has had free-enterprise since 1776 and gun laws to have a second revolution whenever required.  We have more armed American citizens than the Chinese or Russians have armed soldiers.  Obama-Holder armed American criminals and lunatics with the “Fast and Furious” guns that have worked their way back with the drugs from Mexico.  That is why gun violence has tripled since the Stupid Party took over the American government.
 
August 10, 2015   On incredibly few shares traded most American stocks gapped up over 1% at the opening and then sat there doing nothing all morning.  Today, virtually ¾ of investors are on summer vacation.  In France more than 90% of the population is on vacation all of August.  Airbus industry virtually shuts down for the month.  The low volume makes this month very dangerous because very little negative volume can easily trigger short covering followed by automatic panic limit selling.  A large selling volume could easily cause US and European stocks to plunge.
Consumer debt rose a dangerous 25% last month.
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Monday, August 3, 2015

August 6, 2015 Earlier this year the CEO’s of several corporations (Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike) threatened to boycott Indiana and other states if they passed a law affirming the “Bill of Rights” first right, the freedom of Religion. About 95% of Democrat Party supporters who stopped to answer a question below support the repeal of most or all of the American Bill of Rights. “No one ever said democracy would work if people are stupid. Still, no matter how low your expectations are, this is painful.”



http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/08/hillarys-supporters-want-to-repeal-the-bill-of-rights.php


            In a separate poll they would now support Obama launching a nuclear attack on Russia.   Putin put that video on Russian television to point out the danger of this elected administration and the stupidity of its supporters. 


            Here is a more radical socialist group that is even more stupid that not only believes both dominant American parties want to nuke Russia and thinks Russia is better and says we should join their special socialist stupid party and partner with Russia.


            The Breadth Index (new highs – new lows) is flashing a warning of a bear market.


            Only the NASDAQ has not shown the end signs of this economic cycle.  The flood of IPOs this year was paid for with personal and corporate bank loans that have injected many $billions into the American, European, and China’s stock markets, now making those banking systems much more vulnerable to the crash we anticipate this year.


            August 5, 2015   Apple fell another 3.2% Tuesday and crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in almost two years.  The close below that level is bearish signaling a likely new long-term downward trend according to followers of technical analysis.  Apple’s Stormtrooper tactics to destroy America’s religious freedoms has caused an enormous backlash that is only beginning to be felt.  Smart investors realize Apple’s stock is going nowhere now until their CEO is replaced.  That is ditto for all the other companies that threaten US Constitutional freedoms.




           The DJI crossed below its 200-day moving average several days ago giving a sell signal.  And the Standard and Poors index 65 dma has just peaked out according to the WSJ.  Next its 200-day moving average will watched for a sell signal.


         Based on a 50% reduction in demand by China for copper it is evident that China’s current growth rate is about half of what it was last year.  Yet China is still making the mistake of throwing away YAUN to prop up their stock market.  That will cause further dislocations in their economy.  China has been pouring money into their stock market and wasting it for over a year.  The Obama depression has cut American demand for Chinese products.   Obama subsidies to Tesla and solar energy cannot survive the Obama depression.  America will export more coal and oil now that Obama is stupidly manipulating EPA regulations because Obama does not understand economics.  American oil and coal will still be burned in China but America will suffer due to high cost of “Stupid Party” regulations. 


          The Wall Street Journal cast some light today on why the Obama administration and the “Stupid Party” are so stupid.  They cheated their way through school and have no useful education.  Not only were many allowed to cheat, but they were encouraged to cheat on exams and their teachers were even proven to be cheating by correcting their answers because the corrupt “Stupid Party” leftist teachers think that gives the corrupt teacher’s union a justification to demand higher wages.  They know it hurts the students!  Prior to the “Stupid Party,” government workers were forbidden to have unions because the unions are at odds with the national interest.  We have proof of the dumbing down of America exemplified by the “Stupid Party.”  And clearly Obama had his school records sealed because he is hiding something about his lack of a real education. 


         Construction Spending in June dropped to +0.1% down from +1.8% last month.  It could be just government incompetence with simple math again. 


         Who is arming the murderers in the cities?  It isn’t the hunters or the retired war veterans or the American police.  Who ran “Fast and Furious” that armed the Mexican Drug Lords so they could slaughter the Mexican police and anyone who opposed them?  That wasn’t the American hunters or the retired American veterans or the American police either.  We know Obama and Holder created “Fast and Furious” with the intent of blaming the hunters, the retired veterans, the American police, and other decent gun owners for all the thousands of inner city criminals with illegal guns that the “stupid Obama party” deliberately put in circulation.  When the first American Border Guard was killed with one of Obama’s guns, Hillary claimed it was American legal gun sellers that were responsible not Obama and Holder.   But then she realized it was Obama, Holder, and her political party behind it.  But Hillary did nothing to expose the evil plan.  The “stupid party” is pretty stupid, but who could have suspected their "fast and furious guns" would still be killing mostly poor Americans in cities.  Obama and Holder are the ones that distributed the thousands of illegal guns that found there way back to America along with cocaine from Mexico.






            August 4, 2015   The price of Oil tumbled again as world economies slowed further and reserves have begun to reach storage capacity limits.   But the stupid party just targeted the energy industry as their enemy while China and India are the world’s biggest polluters by far.   More energy companies will be bankrupted by the “stupid party.”  The energy sector is being forced to sell at any price or sell less.  U.S. factory activity fell in July and consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in four months in June all indicating that the economy continues to lose momentum.  However the weak economic data did not change economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates a tiny bit this year (0.1% to 0.2%) to try to ward off hyperinflation.  But in any event we expect the stock market has already passed its peak valuation and could drop 40% to 90% over the next year depending on just how stupid Obama, Hillary and their stupid party can get. 




          We now have a racist anti-Semitic “stupid party” government and racist street crime has doubled in the last year with rioting in the cities.  But the Stupid Party wants to make things worse by slapping penalties on energy resources, and stopping pipelines possibly causing energy shortages, blackouts, more poverty, and more riots ahead.  The worst rioting was under Lyndon Johnson in 1968.  It died out when his stupid party was voted out of office.  Currently the Obama-Clinton “stupid party” supports Planned Parenthood that sells baby body parts and according to Elizabeth Warren can and should sell whole baby cadavers.  They also support NAMBLA that preys on American children.  We can count on Donald Trump rubbing their noses in their sick policies.  Remember also the killing of a Green Beret’s family at Ruby Ridge and the slaughter of a religious Bible study group of many women and children at Wako…. by the Clinton’s when the Clinton’s got their opportunity.  They also taxed churches when any pastor expressed their freedom of speech against socialist fascists and child molesters.






           U.S. District Court judge Emmett Sullivan has ordered Hillary Clinton and two of her top aides at the State Department, Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills, to attest, under penalty of perjury, that they have turned over all official government records in their possession.  Judge Andrew Napolitano said that if Hillary Clinton signed any one of two key documents required of all resigning government officials, she "probably committed perjury" in regards to the email security breach that has dogged her for weeks. 




          Republican President Ronald Regan re-established intelligent government and peace in the world.   And being as idiotic as today’s socialist fascists are in the “Stupid Party,” they called America’s great president Regan stupid many times.  The “Stupid Party” today is once again as stupid as it was under the peanut farmer, “Jimmy Carter” but many times more corrupt.  This corrupt “Stupid Party” is the only American party to spy on and harass everyday Americans just like the Nazi and Communist parties did.  It will only get worse if the fascist crony capitalist socialists stay in power and attack the Christian morality code as socialists historically have done.






          Yesterday Greek stocks lost one sixth of their value as their economy is in free-fall.  But the Greeks are intelligent people and tourists are returning in droves.


           ISIS is infiltrating the Kurds.  Either ISIS or the Kurds will inevitably be annihilated.  The Kurds must decide which it will be.


            August 3, 2015   Chris Matthews a leftist news commentator discovered that the DNC Chairman cannot explain the difference between her “Stupid Party” and socialism showing again the DNC’s stupidity starts at the very top.  The problem is she can’t admit that DNC socialism plus their corporation cronyism with NAMBLA supporting corporate demigods equals fascism in the form of socialism that led to World War II and the repression of opposition religious groups that came to the aid of Jews.  Israel today knows the Obama fascists are a danger to world peace since they unleashed ISIS when he (Obama) completely abandoned Israel and Arab democracies.    NAMBLA was formed with the Boston Priest that was accused of preying on over 60 alter boys during the previous Clinton Administration.  Hilary Clinton supports opening the American Boy Scouts up to allow NAMBLA members to be scout masters. The following corporations are lead by crony capitalists who fund and support Hilary Clinton because they too are against the American Constitutions religious freedom to oppose groups like NAMBLA that want to prey on our children.  No economy of an immoral, stupid, inept, CEO’s with a similar corrupt government can survive bankruptcy. 










            It is an opinion that the following companies are now part of the organized political and moral corruption of crony capitalism and that the Obama administration probably cleared their attack on American Religious freedom this past spring.   (Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike.) Their CEO’s deceive themselves into thinking they are Gods gift to America.   We would not touch their stocks at this time based on the corruption implicit in their cronyism with the current corrupt manipulative administration.  Hitler’s gay Stormtroopers thought they were God’s gift to Germany too. 


One American journalist wrote, "[Röhm's] chiefs, men of the rank of Gruppenfuehrer or Obergruppenfuehrer, commanding units of several hundred thousand Storm Troopers, were almost without exception homosexuals.”






          There are not many Moslems in America but under their Sharia law they decapitate or burn homosexuals alive.  Christians are the vast religious majority in America and have opened their churches to homosexuals to the extent that they are welcome members and there are homosexual priests, cardinals, and pastors.  But the Stormtooper tactics of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike have started a backlash.




          30,000 Mexicans died with “Fast and Furious” which was an Obama-Holder attempt to blame American hunters and veterans for the Obama 2008-15 Mexican gun running deaths.   Next, thousands of Americans were illegally harassed and audited by Obama/Holder’s IRS in 2011-2012 because they had Christians, moral, or had patriotic beliefs. Now the above private industry CEO’s coincidentally joined in a coordinated attack on the very same religious people Obama-Holder and the IRS have targeted. 




         Pending Home Sales June plunged -1.8% from 0.9% last month


Sentiment - Final July 93.1 down from 93.3 and is near the level of the 2007-7 market collapse and about 40% lower than when the Clinton Administration’s 2000 collapse began.




          Blackrock’s Koesterich today predicted higher stock market volatility and lower US growth for the rest of this year.  He said wait a few months for at least a 10% decline.  He does not anticipate a new bear market but would still wait for a decline in stock prices.


          The WSJ now shows the 65 day moving average (DMA) seems to have peaked for most indices and the 200 DMA’s are now peaking.   When the 200 DMA’s have peaked we will be in a publicly recognized bear market.  As we have said since last October 2014, we expected the earliest the bear market would begin is early summer and most people (even Jim Cramer) should recognize it by October 2015.  Our analysis looks at estimated cash flows as opposed the index prices and that is why it predicts earlier than the price movements. 

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