2015 year end report: On Friday Dec 18 before many people left for the holidays there was an unusually large outflow of money from all the American stock markets. It was much larger than that time last year. Yet the year end decline overall has taken about two months longer than we estimated. And Jim Cramer has said to sell a few times but has not said sell-sell-sell like he did when he panicked in 2008 after the market was already plummeting. With that, there are two possibilities. Either this decline will be as great as we estimated but will take a few months longer to evolve, or else the economy and the bottom of the market will soon fall faster than estimated.

             So far we have seen the near complete collapse of the pharmacy stocks and energy stocks.  But all of the sectors have many similar excesses to unwind.  Therefore while the decline began in earnest in late August (within the date range for which we estimated) it has not yet followed through as fast as expected.  We estimated the panic mode would set in at least a full month earlier.  This means the recession will likely last longer than we estimated.  That means the bottom could be as late as June unless the panic mode begins in earnest in early January. 

           How this all ends will depend a great deal on the November 2016 election outcome.  If a dynamic and honest entrepreneur is elected we could have an historic period of economic growth beginning in 2017.  If another stupid, incompetent, corrupt socialist is elected, the USA will continue to descend from being the preeminent world economy it had been for almost 130 years of leadership based on the philosophy, Constitution, and laws of the Founding Fathers of the American Revolution.  They provided a system free from and against the tyranny of stupid, incompetent, and unjust socialist systems that take from the producers to buy the allegiance of a majority voter base of ignorant government dependents.   

            Ayn Rand was the American philosopher who best described the true free enterprise system.  She also knew religious oppression so she became an atheist because many Christians confuse socialism with kindness and charity which are personal helping hands not a government right.  Socialism results in a dependent underclass that usually votes 98% for the aspiring socialist dictator.  Ayn Rand called her philosophy Objectivism.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/ayn_rand.html

http://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/books/16-inspiring-quotes-by-best-selling-author-ayn-rand-on-her-birthday/

12-29-2015  The fools in the leftist press and the incompetent socialists playing with the American economy think the American public is stupid.  Today they said:   

New York Times – 12PM EST

Home Prices and Consumer Confidence Show Strength, Reports Say:

Steady job growth, low mortgage rates and tight inventories helped spur rising home prices in October, and a stronger job market lifted consumer confidence in December, separate reports showed on Tuesday.

         Case-Shiller 20-city Index Oct 2015 5.5% flat from 5.5% ….No improvement

         Consumer Confidence Dec 2015 96.5 up from 92.6   …..Half of what it was in 1999.

During the Dotcom bubble Consumer Confidence was 182 and one year after Obama first took office it was down to 26.  Yes, now it is almost back to the level before the Liar Loan derivative scheme imploded.   The housing market imploded due to the Dodd-Frank-Obama Liar Loan scam that was the basis of liar loan mortgage loan derivatives that were sold world wide for investments.   It was a “good socialist thing” that was supposed to get minorities settled in their own homes.  The Dodd-Frank-Obama scheme collapsed and caused the world wide recession just before Obama was elected.  Dodd and Frank took the fall for Obama and disappeared off the radar.  Two huge socialist housing mortgage agencies were created for it and they still exist today.

Definition of a liar loan

A low or no documentation loan, often in the form of a mortgage, provided to a borrower with no assets, no income (NINA). "Liar" refers to the borrower indicating a level of income that is not correct, for instance saying that he or she earned $50,000 while in fact being unemployed. Because physical documentation is rarely required, the borrower is able to obtain the loan. Low documentation loans were originally designed for borrowers with high credit scores but who wished to keep personal income private.
http://www.investorwords.com/7157/liar_loan.html
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case

Dec 28, 2015 The second Obama recession has begun in earnest and should be over by summer. Therefore the accelerating steep stock market decline should be over before then. We estimate the stock markets are now less than one third of the way down and at least two major short declines still lay ahead. The BBC has done a marvelous job diverting world attention from the incompetence of the Obama administration both socio-economically and militarily. The BBC staff created the expansion of ISIS and the resulting massive migration and human crises. Notice that since someone told the BBC to shut up, the BBC no longer spends so much time showing the chaos of terrorism and the mass migration and slaughter the BBC has exploited as their primary news profit center. The BBC behavior has been despicable and gives the world freaks the publicity they crave. The BBC has drowned out the incompetence of world leaders and given ISIS their publicity and political platforms.

            Trump should announce that any illegal alien who tries to vote illegally will be deported and never allowed back into the USA.  This warning is needed because the “stupid party” helps register illegal immigrants to vote.  Anyone illegally in the USA who commits the crime of illegally voting or helping others in that crime should be deported and never allowed citizenship.  Just one generation ago all American criminals in prison were denied the right to vote as part of the punishment while serving time for their crimes.   But the stupid party knew the criminals would vote for them so they let felons vote now.  Trump already promised to make the “stupid party” sanctuary cities for criminals illegal in the USA.  The penalty for not obeying the laws of the land should be the loss of the right to vote and the penalty for not supporting the Constitution should be the loss of citizenship.  That way Americans would not have to worry that religious terrorists will ever rule sections of America as they do sections of Paris, Syria, and Turkey.

            Industrial production is still lower than when Obama was elected.  In fact it plunged the moment he was elected in November and is still lower than it was back in 2007 under Bush some eight years ago.  Obama has ruined the economy, ruined world peace, and now has the people rioting in corrupt Chicago where his former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel rules with an iron hand.  A teenager was gunned down in cold blood last year and Rahm Emanuel refused to release the video evidence until he was recently forced to by a federal court.  Even the illegal immigrants are now leaving because they think it is better in Mexico than under Obama. 

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=industrial

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/19/news/economy/more-mexicans-leaving-us-than-coming/

            Finally the market Bears have overtaken the Bulls as they did when Obama was elected and during market corrections of his administration when Americans lost confidence with his administration.  The governor of NJ will never get to be president because he hugged Obama after hurricane Sandy hit NJ a week before the 2012 election.  That made it clear to the “stupid party” just how prominent Governor Christie was.  To destroy Christie the “stupid party” illegally had the NSA supercomputer used to match random short conversations between Christie’s staff to fabricate the Obama story that Christie played dirty tricks while Governor.   Even the Democrat mayor of the city with the Washington Bridge traffic jam said the Obama investigation was nonsense.  The two staff workers have both vehemently denied the Obama’s totally fabricated NSA bridge traffic evidence.  The “stupid party” continues to use taxpayer money and to misuse NSA to harass Governor Christie four years after the Christie hug that got Obama elected.  That is because the “stupid party” is too stupid to know that the Christie hug of Obama was the kiss of death for Christie’s national Republican aspirations.

“But studies show there's no evidence that the oft-cited NSA random information analysis is accurate.”

http://www.propublica.org/article/claim-on-attacks-thwarted-by-nsa-spreads-despite-lack-of-evidence

 http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

http://www.wsj.com/articles/prosecutors-press-on-with-bridge-probe-tied-to-chris-christies-office-1411341880

 

Dec 24, 2015 United States domestic shale oil production at a real cost of less than $40 per barrel has nearly doubled over the last six years, pushing out foreign oil. The plunging crude oil prices are now bankrupting the Moslem, socialist, and communist nations putting many of the United States' adversaries under great stress. The socialist and Moslem nations have been gouging the free democracies for decades using a cartel to limit production, so the oil that costs the cartel less than $20/barrel to produce had been selling over $105 per barrel. South American communist and socialist dictators are being ousted, Cuba is now a friend, and Putin is becoming a rational world leader. This is all happening in spite of the incompetence of the Obama administration that up to this time has been clueless to this change. But this blog is read by several hundred democrats who sometimes go viral and pass on the information. Then we can expect the incompetent “stupid party” will claim it was Obama’s “intelligent” foreign policy not cheap American oil that changed the situation. But Americans are a lot smarter now and want someone like Trump who has consistently supported fracking, coal burning, and the Canadian pipeline all of which the “stupid party” vehemently still oppose.

           Instead the stupid party hurts the American economy and coal is exported to China where they even don’t bother to remove the pollutants before their coal or oil combustion products enter the atmosphere.   If we had clean coal burning, China would have less coal and would be forced to use cleaner fuels.

            Instead the “stupid party” subsidizes solar panels which cost more energy to produce and recycle than they make in their less than ten year average life cycle.  The fools who buy the panels think they are smart until they have leaks, low output, and the roof starts to rot.  Then it costs them an average or $25000 to get rid of them and repair the roof.  Then they hate the businesses that took advantage of them not the “stupid party” that taxed them to pay for the subsidy.   They voted for the “stupid party” because though they are stupid they actually think they are smart because they got a socialist subsidy.  Any time the government has to subsidize consumers it is a clear indication that the product is less than worthless.  That’s right it means the “stupid party” costs taxpayers and consumers more than anything they subsidize is worth.  Nothing they have to subsidize is worth the cost, inconvenience, ugly deteriorated installations, damage, and the removal, repair, and recycling costs.

            After two years of falling prices, the effects have reverberated across the globe, fueling economic discontent in Venezuela, changing Russia's economic and political calculations and dampening Iranian leaders' hopes of a financial windfall when sanctions linked to its nuclear program will be lifted next year.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/business/energy-environment/oil-prices.html?_r=0

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/12/plunging_oil_prices_shake_up_g.html

       Trump should announce that any illegal alien who tries to vote illegally will be deported and never allowed back into the USA.  This warning is needed because the “stupid party” helps register illegal immigrants to vote.  Anyone illegally in the USA who commits the crime of illegally voting or helping others in that crime should be deported never allowed citizenship.  Just one generation ago all American criminals in prison were denied the right to vote as part of the punishment while serving time for their crimes.  He already promised to make the “stupid party” sanctuary cities for criminals illegal in the USA.

         Dec 21, 2015    Sales of existing homes fell sharply in November to its lowest pace in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell 10.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis to an annualized rate of 4.76 million.  That is lower than it was in 2013 and 2007.

         The WSJ quickly went back to the short period 65dma market averages about which data always tracks and which hides the market buy and sell signals.  It will be interesting to see what they do when the market hits its low next year.  Will they hide the 200dma buy signal the way they hide the 200dma sell signal?

         Now Hilary is lying saying Donald Trump is being used by ISIS to insight riots Islamic terrorism against Americans.   Hilary also lied when she also blamed a Jewish film for the death of an American ambassador.   Hilary lied when she said the Benghazi attack on the Libyan embassy was caused by the following movie which the administration foolishly advertized to deflect criticism of the fact that American embassies were incompetently left unguarded that year on the anniversary of 9-11.  The riots and the attack actually occurred because Hilary and Obama had the leader of Libya killed and left a power vacuum.  Hilary lied and denied that American Jewish movie maker of his American rights and freedom.  Clinton is in an ISIS video!

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/09/12/this-is-the-anti-muhammed-movie-that-sparked-deadly-islamist-protests-in-egypt-libya-yesterday/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3369457/Donald-Trump-isn-t-ISIS-recruitment-videos-fornicator-Bill-Clinton-is.html

 

Dec 21, 2015    We have pointed out for several months that the WSJ optimistically distorts the market by showing the least reliable indices such as the Nasdaq, DJI, and S&P with 65 day moving averages and never showing the broader NYSE or Russell 2000 and seldom showing the Nasdaq, DJI, and S&P except with optimistic 65 dma’s.  And whenever they dare to show the 200 dma’s with the DJI and S&P it is usually followed by a steep stock market decline because even though the DJI and S&P are cherry picked indices the 200dma at least tells the truth that we are already in a severe bear market.   Well today in section “C” the WSJ showed the 200dma’s again and will likely trigger the second of the three major declines we have predicted since the major broader indices said the market was topping out the end of last year.  Since October of this year the high end has also topped out and the WSJ has hid that using the 65dma.  But today they are broadcasting the bear market is here so we expect the uninformed to be shocked and they are the majority of the market.  Hence, we expect the second leg down to become clearer today and most of the losses are yet to come.  But there should yet be the final market bottom coming in a few months.  So hang on to your seats for a rocky ride.

         Dec 19, 2015    Dig just a little and you discover that the underemployment rate is still at an unacceptable 12%to 18%, wages are stagnant, debt levels are high, 76% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and 15% of Americans are on food stamps.   This is actually the best of all times since the incompetent Obama government by and for the “stupid party” began.   But the second Obama recession has already started this past October, two months before the FED said it would begin raising rates in January.   The Institute for Supply Management in December showed that for October the PMI manufacturing index was 48.6 percent, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month and the first month of contraction in three years.  A similar contraction occurred at the beginning of the Obama recession after which it plunged to 35.  Growth is anything above 50, and a complete economic collapse is zero.    Raising rates now will not help the economy.   The world economies are addicted to low rates which are like an economic pain killer drug.  The stock market is about to get real ugly for several months of withdrawal.  We will probably be $20 Trillion in debt before we can clean out this corrupt, incompetent, politically correct, government.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=ISM

        It is evident that Warren Buffett, John Paulson, and George Soros know U.S. stocks are in a bubble that is about to burst.   They are dumping their weak assets.  Stocks have a price-to-earnings ratio now which is 71% higher than their 10-year average.   Typically during a recession the price level of stocks drop somewhere between 70% and 90%. 

           Dec 19, 2015   Martin Shkreli, was arrested Thursday on charges of securities fraud related to a company, Turing Pharmaceuticals, that he ran and which he used to jack up drug prices knowing that Obamacrap was set up so incompetently that it would accept any and all health related price increases.  Obama crap has increased  an average of 14% in cost each year because Obama’s Uncle Sap pays everything and has nobody minding the store.  The whole pharmaceuticals industry is now in a stock market bubble based on passing through price increases that have given the industry obscene profits. 

            In most of America the Independent category of voters is where the people go when they cannot stand the organized political parties.   Trump only gets 42% of the Republican party but gets about 80% of the independents and 20% of the stupid people’s party.  No one has polled the Independents yet and when they do they will find that since the Independents are more than the combined Republicans and “stupid people’s party” Trump will beat Hillary by 55% to her 45% as things stand today.

            Political correctness was created by stupid and incompetent people who figured it was the only way to protect themselves from demanding intelligent people who see through the fraud, incompetence, bullying, and free loading.  Political correctness has become the primary defense of the bullies that want to steal whatever they can and declare themselves entitled people by claiming they are Native Americans, Blacks or whoever the “stupid party” wants to protect.  Sanctuary cities are places created by the “stupid party” to harbor and protect illegal alien criminals that have put the lives of Americans like Kate at risk.

http://dailysignal.com/2015/10/20/sanctuary-cities-bill-blocked-in-senate/

Dec 17, 2015 The market seems to be about to begin the second decline which will likely be slightly worse than the August 24 tumult with most of it occurring in January. Oil stocks are now the most heavily shorted sector in the stock market so we expect they will bottom first and rise early next spring. Gold should stay flat lined until inflation starts to kick in. We still anticipate there will be yet a third and final market panic for the rest of the market in the spring when the house of leveraged cards will finally collapse completely. Already the intelligent investors are getting into cash or going short. There is also always a large group that overextend on the short side and they will collapse and create most of the rallies in between the cascading two major declines we expect before the financial markets stabilize next year.

            The entire politically correct “stupid party” slate is about as popular in debate as are the bottom four GOP candidates who get incredibly low viewer ratings.  The politically correct media tries their best to support the incompetent Obama and politically correct “stupid party” but are failing.   Even Putin agrees the incumbent “stupid party” leaders are incredibly incompetent.  Stupid people demand political correctness because they know they are stupid and deserve to be told the truth and driven out of public office.  The professors at Harvard included one who got her professorship by lying and claiming she was a minority Cherokee Indian.  Most college professors are dunces who could not get jobs in private industry and are so slow they need plenty of vacation time to think about what they are doing.  Consequently the stupidity of students has also been growing with the government subsidies to keep the professors employed with grants and the students preoccupied with date rape and “political correctness” instead of study and critical thinking.

             Dec 16, 2015   The bear market remains intact after several year end rallies that have all failed.  All five major indices that we follow have failed to reach the summer highs and have maintained their sell signals.  The broadest indices are the most bearish.  The Nasdaq is least bearish.

           Bill Ackman continues to stumble since MBI.  MBI is down 93% since 2007.  Bill unfortunately recently bought into the drug companies at the highs before the collapse and he shorted Herbalife just before Carl Icahn bought in and gave Bill another haircut.

         The GOP debate yesterday shows promise that the brightest candidates will be united.  The S.C.  GOP candidate truly belongs in the “stupid party”.  Donald Trump rose further in popularity to 42% of the field that is divided between 10 viable candidates after Trump said that immigration of Moslems should be halted until Obama puts them through valid background checks.  Only the “stupid party” thinks background checks are discriminatory.  Indeed background checks discriminate against terrorists and the “stupid party” is not smart enough to realize that most Americans want to discriminate against terrorists.

         It is amazing that while Jimmy Carter was in office the best and brightest environmentalists predicted that the world would run out of oil by the year 2000.  Environmental pseudo-science is now flooded with the dumbest students of all the sciences.   And they are virtually all members of the “stupid party”.  Today there is such a glut of oil that oil is cheaper than it was under Jimmy Carter the environmentalist peanut farmer president who the “stupid party” claimed was a competent nuclear engineer.  That just shows how far colleges have had to be dumbed down to give degrees to environmentalists and other members of the “stupid party”.  The “stupid party” appears to be the party of dummies.

        Dec 15, 2015   The IPO spree has used low interest rates to waste 75%% or more of borrowed money by overpaying for acquired corporations so that the corrupt corporation insiders can legally walk off with the banks money that is guaranteed by American taxpayers.   For example Gilt Inc was overpriced by 300% a few years ago when markup fraud was prevalent and now that the farce has been exposed, Hudson Bay has bought it for 25 cents on the dollar.  The bubble economy of the Obama Administration has been entirely based on corruption of the entire administration and its regulators.  The investment bubble is now popping and is why the stock market and economy are in decline.  The thieves are treated by the press as deal makers and the buyers as sophisticated investors until the banks take possession and then American taxpayers have to bail out the banks.

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/264768/newell-rubbermaid-and-jarden-cook-up-a-15-billion.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hudsons-bay-near-deal-to-buy-online-retailer-gilt-groupe-for-250-million-1450131724

         More and more US firms are now using creative accounting to hide revenue decline and losses as they try to maintain their bubble level stock prices.  This is reminiscent of when the dotcom bubble broke at the end of the Clinton administration which was just as incompetent and corrupt as the Obama administration.  But the Clintons were also responsible for the deaths of many innocent Americans, and the rise of NAMBLA.  According to the Newsmax publication, O'Reilly has repeatedly claimed that Clinton had the Internal Revenue Service audit him.   O'Reilly says that he was audited three times just like Obama audited thousands of his “believed” political opponents.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-expands-at-2-1-pace-in-third-quarter-1448372098

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-companies-returning-to-adjusted-figures-popular-before-the-internet-bust-2015-12-15

http://www.varight.com/news/did-former-president-clinton-forget-ruby-ridge-and-waco/

https://bunkerville.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/let-us-not-forget-waco-ruby-ridge-kent-state/

http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?136388-Kent-State-Ruby-Ridge-Waco

          There is finally a Moslem reform movement starting in the USA led by a brave Moslem woman who was not afraid to show her face and hair on the Judge Jeanine program last week.    They advocate Moslems adopt the western freedoms that even women and non Moslems have in the West.  It comes at a time when the free world is getting a bit pissed off at Islamic infidel terrorists who worship the devil, beat their women, and rape children down to the age of nine.   Fear of a terrorist attack shut down the LA school system today.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/yZZlo0WZ_iU?rel=0

http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/12/10/bill-oreilly-talking-points-memo-donald-trump-should-thank-obama-left-wing-media

Dec 11, 2015 Today the Jimmy Cramer index is very gloomy but not yet sell-sell-sell. The last time the market was down almost 50% of the way before Jimmy said sell-sell-sell. He is late from what we predicted and so is the stock market. The recent rally attempt delayed what we predicted by over a month. But the bear market has now resumed.

         The Fed reported that Americans lost $1.2 Trillion dollars invested in stocks in the 3^rd quarter.  The high yield bond fund, Third Avenue, today barred withdrawals as all junk-bonds are plunging.  Hugh losses are causing calls and forcing the sellout of margin accounts.  This is the beginning of the second leg of this bear market.  The third leg is usually the worst.  That probably will end in February 2016.  But a forth leg could go slightly lower.  We think it will all be over by summer 2016 and possibly as early as March.

           The number of Americans killed at Pearl Harbor was fewer than was the number killed at the Twin Towers.  Yet, Democrat President FDR sent the entire population of the American Japanese citizens on Hawaii and on the west coast into prison camps for the duration of WWII.  And none in the Democrat party had any problem with that.   After Twin Towers fell George Bush went to pray at the Mosque in lower Manhattan and the “stupid party” had nothing nice to say about that.    When President Jimmy Carter of the Democrat Party threw out all the visiting Iranian Moslems in 1979 non within the “Democrat party” had any problem with that.   Today ISIS and other Moslem terrorists are from every ethnic and national background and are far more dangerous than Khomeini ever was.   But times have changed and today we have the “stupid party” of posh socialists who vastly outnumber the intelligent Democrats.   So when Donald Trump said that we need to halt the inflow of Moslems from the terror center of the Mid-East until Obama’s “stupid party” gets its act together and vets the immigrants so that they do not bring Islamic terrorism to American soil, the “stupid party” and the new “stupid leftist media” went ballistic.  The “stupid leftist media” outrage is only an indication of the absolute debt of the stupidity of most of the news media and members of the “Stupid Party.”  They mean well but their brains fell out and they now think that makes them more open minded.

http://megynkelly.org/20458/remember-back-when-jimmy-carter-forbade-immigration-from-iran-and-expelled-iranian-students/

http://www.ijreview.com/2015/12/489202-remember-back-when-jimmy-carter-forbade-immigration-from-iran-and-expelled-and-immigrants-from-iran-and-expelled/

Dec 11 Core PPI Nov 0.3% up from -0.3% high inflation that encourages the Fed to raise rates.

Dec 11 Auto Sales auto Nov -0.2% down from 0.0%

Dec 11 Business Inventories Oct 0.0% down from 0.1% not to be confused with high retail inventories.

Dec 11 10:00 Mich Sentiment Dec 91.8 fell from 93.1

Retail sales are continuing downward.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=retail_sales

         Dec 10, 2015  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to a five-month high last week, signaling a massive deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend is counter the normal year end Christmas rally when many people are hired.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to 282,000 for the week ended Dec. 5, the highest level since July.

           The greatest threat that Trump faces is from the few dunces that are still high up in the GOP power structure.  Those dunces are secretly planning how to get rid of Trump.  They are advocating assisting the other candidates hoping several will run in the primaries and get enough delegates so that Trump will not get the GOP nomination on the first ballot.  Then, all the delegates will be free to nominate any one of the top five GOP candidates.  Then they expect to have Jeb Bush selected as the Republican candidate for president.  That would be legal but it is likely that so many Americans will be so disgusted with the Hillary vs. Bush choice that Trump support will surge anyway and he will run and win.  Then when Trump wins, the GOP will be dissolved and a new more nationalistic majority party will emerge and the “stupid party”, the worker’s party, and the socialist’s party will be just three minority parties just like they have in Europe.  Yes, the phenomena we are seeing today in America is a revulsion to Islamic terrorism and the re-emergence of nationalism that has not been seen since WWII and the American total revulsion to National (NAZI) and International (Soviet) socialist war mongers.  After the 2016 election it will be payback time for all international politicians, corporations, and nations currently meddling in the American election process.  America will no longer share technology and wealth with covert enemies.   Some here will advocate that Americans will be defined as those born in America that who swear allegiance to America and the American Constitution.  Non-Americans may be allowed to stay in America but not vote.

         A Bloomberg poll says that 65% of likely GOP primary voters back Trump's Muslim ban.  Why not, it worked when Jimmy Carter did the same thing in 1979 but the “Stupid Party” couldn’t even remember they originated that policy.  And a few stupid GOP candidates joined in with Obama and Clinton who have set the bar for competency at an all time low.  Since the other candidates ridiculed the Trump idea one can assume Trump will get 65% of the primary vote and the other candidates will divide up the remaining 35%.  When he made his statement yesterday Trump’s favorable poll number among all the 14 GOP candidates went up from 30% to 38% and up to 65% for all American voters.   That is much higher than Clinton’s favorability level which has hit an all time low of 42% of the “stupid party” primary voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/185324/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-one-worst.aspx

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-09/bloomberg-politics-poll-trump-muslim-ban-proposal

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-09/trump-s-muslim-travel-ban-idea-drowns-out-obama-s-terrorism-speech

            All the stock indices plunged again today while Cramer was still out claiming the economy is booming and new hiring is great and the Fed will raise rates.  We are very disappointed with Jimmy because we had predicted more than a year ago that he would say “Sell-sell-sell” by November 2015.  Jimmy continues to say that the jobs numbers last month (November) were great.  Jimmy apparently doesn’t know much and just does what he is told.  Of course the jobs numbers are going no where, but Jimmy is clueless.  November 2015 was down 50% from November 2014.  But we agree that the Fed should begin to raise rates.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

            Rahm Emanuel the “stupid party” master of dirty tricks and deceit should resign for his cover-up of the murder of a Chicago black youth because Rahm was afraid it would hurt his campaign for mayor in 2014.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Protesters-Plan-Citywide-Walkout-to-Call-for-Emanuels-Resignation-361231611.html

https://sojo.net/articles/protesters-shut-down-streets-chicago-demand-emanuel-resign

         Dec 9, 2015  The stock market today rose in the morning and then dropped trice as fast through the afternoon.  The DJI is again using the 65DMA and is cutting the plots off below August 24 to deceive novice investors who look at the plots and erroneously conclude we are in a Bull market.   We don’t actually know if it is deliberate (it could be WSJ stupidity) but whenever they show the truth of the 200DMA with an annual plot the stock market plummets.  But they are still deceiving investors either way.

         U.S. wholesale inventories fell in October as businesses stepped up efforts to reduce the stockpile of unsold merchandise, suggesting inventories would again be a drag on growth in the fourth quarter and that it could be accomplished with savings from reduced production expenses and job cuts.   But the benefit will be short lived

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0TS1U520151209#964UPDHWkSkVg209.97

Consumer Credit Oct $16.0B down from $28.9B as the “stupid party” economy now begins to sharply contract.   The “stupid party” has made a mess of everything abroad and at home.   And Hilary makes Obama look intelligent by comparison. 

 

Dec 8, 2015    Yesterday Donald Trump, currently the most popular 2016 US candidate for president, evoked “stupid party” outrage by suggesting that foreign Moslems be banned from America until the mental disease of Islamic terrorism is eradicated.  Trump said, “It is obvious to anybody their hatred is beyond comprehension,” “Where this hatred comes from and why, we will have to determine. Until we are able to determine and understand this problem and the dangerous threat it poses, our country cannot be the victims of horrendous attacks by people that believe only in jihad, and have no sense of reason or respect for human life.”   From the WSJ pg1 today.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-calls-for-ban-on-muslim-entry-into-u-s-1449526104

         A poll released yesterday shows that 51% of Moslems in America already want to live under Sharia Law rather than the American Constitution and government.  25% of Moslems in America today already believe in Jihad (killing Christians, Hindus, and Jews in America).  That was from an Obama government poll.

57% of all hate crimes in America are against Jews.  Where is Hilary on this problem?

https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2015/06/23/nationwide-poll-of-us-muslims-shows-thousands-support-shariah-jihad/

          We believe we are approaching the bottom in the oil market collapse but since we expect the general bear market is about to take over the general market again,  we would use this opportunity to wait and prepare  for other selling opportunities as the stock market declines for another three or four months.  Oil tends to lead up at the beginning and down at the end of the economic cycle.   Crude oil is at a long term low and cannot go much lower for any length of time.  Oil is going to turn around before the overall market.  We expect the market to bottom in a few months but will hit a low somewhere between 50% and 90% down from the 2015 highs.

          Rahm Emanuel is accused of the cover-up of the 16 bullet shooting of a walking non-aggressive 17 yr old black boy in Chicago.  The cover-up was done because Rahm Emanuel was trying to get re-elected mayor at the time of the shooting.   Rahm Emanuel helped organized Obama’s dirty tricks.  He got the IRS to harass Christian corporations, historical societies, conservatives, and vocal opponents.  He is believed to have even had the original idea for Holden’s “Fast and Furious.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-rahm-emanuel-police-task-force-20151130-story.html

http://heavy.com/news/2015/11/laquan-mcdonald-video-chicago-police-officer-jason-van-dyke-shooting-video-released-watch-16-times-protests-dash-cam-youtube-uncensored-full/

         Hilary lied to the American public when she knowingly and falsely accused a Jewish film maker of inciting the terrorists to kill the three Americans at the Libyan Embassy.  On the same day she told her family the truth that it was a terrorist attack.  That was a crime against all Jews and in addition she and Obama told the press the Jewish film maker went to prison.  Hilary and Obama knew it was a lie and a slander against Jews.  She and Obama stuck to their lie until after the election.  Hilary and Obama are similar to Rahm Emanuel because they apparently lied to keep the Obama/Hilary team from being thrown out of office.   Israel knows that Obama and Hilary are enemies of Israel.  Obama and Hilary have no inclination to tell the world that the problem in the Mid East is the virulent Islamic Terrorism of Jihad.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4280316,00.html

         The WSJ is back to a 65DMA that makes it look like a bull market because they only start it after the Aug 24 decline.  Take a look at how it is designed to deceive any unwary investor.  The WSJ is obviously trying to deceive the public.  Such alternating positive deception followed by bearish reality is how the WSJ pumps up volatility and puts small investors at a disadvantage.  The WSJ doesn’t even show the NYSE any more because that is how the total market is moving not the few best performing stocks. 

         Dec 7, 2015    Remember when we said the recent rally was manipulated and that even the WSJ was in on it because they did not even show the 200 day moving averages for the easily manipulated indices, the DJI and the NASDAQ.  Well today the WSJ let loose and are now letting out all the bad news they withheld during their short rally.  Today they finally showed the 200DMA’s and it tells everyone this short rally was not the start of a Bull Market and no new breakout occurred in spite of the WSJ Pollyanna manipulation.

       Let the bankruptcy toll now begin as the oil cartel lets the oil flow unlimited. 

       Let the bankruptcy toll now begin as the corporation earnings plummet due to high leveraged corporate debt.

       Let the bankruptcy toll hit its peak as the interest rates explode upward as they did at the end of the Jimmy Carter “stupid party” fiasco.  Under Jimmy Carter the prime rate tripled quickly from 5% to 15%.  To match that the Fed only has to triple rates from 0.2% to 0.6%

       Let the bankruptcy toll begin as doubled up layered and leveraged corporate debt that circumvented Fed bank stress test safeguards puts the American banks at high risk again.  Debt has been bundled and leveraged up from fly-by-night enterprise companies to fly-by-night investors and hedge funds and finally they became the “dynamite” high profit layered and leveraged holdings of the investment banks.  All of that is about to implode.

        The Fed has found flaws in the way they do bank stress tests and is scrambling to correct the problem of corruption of regulators who are schmoozed or later offered jobs or are given favors.  The bank capital requirements should have increased with the combination of layers of leveraging of investment and money supply.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-finds-fault-with-its-own-stress-tests-1449311404

       US Wheat exports have plummeted to a ten year low and are predicted to hit a 44 year low before the “stupid party” and Obama’s Fed Chairperson can be ejected after 2016.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-dollar-shreds-wheat-exports-1449444757

Start-up crowd funding with Tech’s hometown banks add layers of leverage and risks to the banking system.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valleys-hometown-bank-booms-but-risks-are-on-horizon-1449453294

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-startup-crowdfunding-isnt-all-its-cracked-up-to-be-1449464460

       After Jimmy Carter’s “stupid party” fizzled and conservative President Ronald Regan straightened out the American economy.  The same phenomenon is occurring right now with Donald Trump and the slew of GOP candidates lining up to put the American economy back together after the next election.  So while the bear is about to bite the economy and the stock markets, we should see this as an opportunity to sell out high and buy in low.  We will try to predict interim lows and highs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/world/europe/frances-far-right-national-front-gains-in-regional-elections.html?_r=0

      Hedge Funds brace for losses after the EU raise the value of the EURO.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/macro-hedge-funds-placed-wrong-bets-on-ecbs-move-1449254693

      Global Oil glut is now going into final phase.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/no-end-in-sight-to-global-oil-glut-as-price-tumbles/news-story/e7099647b1a760a01aea2dd0ccb3df70

http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-oil-keeps-falling-nobody-is-blinking-1449446203

      Junk Bonds headed for the worst fire sale loss since Obama took office.  They issue a major sell signal.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-missing-the-warning-from-junk-1449397806

      The latest mass murderer got his guns from a helpful but stupid neighbor who used a helpful but stupid gun dealer.  A good gun-law would be to make the stupid gun seller and stupid neighbor partially liable for the deaths resulting from being a good but stupid neighbor or dealer.  One method would be to immediately take the guns, ammunition, and license to use or sell guns away from any persons that stupidly directly or indirectly put the weapons in terrorist hands.  Therefore to avoid such a penalty, anyone involved would have to immediately report any facilitated or other suspicious gun sale to the FBI and local police.  Hunters and militia men should be able to handle that.  Remember the Founding Fathers gave Americans the right to have guns to rebel against any attempt by a totalitarian leader to take away any of our Constitutional rights or to change our form of government.

       This was the last lie that caused the stock markets to rise its last 1.3% in the first two hours on Friday!

Jobs: Fed gets green light to hike rates.  This is pure bullshit as we showed last week: 

USA TODAY - The Fed didn't need healthy job gains to push ahead with a rate hike in December. But that's what it got. And that's a good thing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0