Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric, blasted the Obama administration and Congressman Barney Frank telling a banking audience that the Democrats’ actions to restructure the entire economy are “insane.”
He said, “I hope that the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s race will put some realism into this administration,” Welch told an enthusiastic crowd at the Bank Administration Institute convention at Boston’s Convention and Exhibition Center. “I hope it will cause them to pause and not just jump into anything they encounter.”
Welch was referring to the races on Tuesday where two incumbent Democrats thrown out of office, a sign that Americans are fed up with President Barack Obama’s socialist policies.
“I desperately want more thought so we don’t throw out some of the great things we have in this country,” Welch said to more than 1,000 bankers. “Right now, Barney Frank has the floor. He can send us down paths that might be bad for us. That’s frightening. I hope the elections in those two states will slow the speed at which we are attacking climate change, financial regulations and health care. We can’t just pile up deficits and restructure the entire economy in 12-18 months. It’s not doable. It’s insane.”
Market Outlook
The Congress took two weeks beyond the expiration of the last unemployment extension to once again extend the unemployment compensation period. That means that many of the unemployed were no longer listed as unemployed when they exceeded the first extension. That could make the unemployment statistics optimistic and then pessimistic again as the unemployed are de-listed and then re-listed. Therefore if the figures become very good in the next week we would accelerate getting out of the market and into cash because they will only get worse again.
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
FED released Nov 9 2009 quarterly loan officer survey results on Bank Lending Practices
The survey also included three sets of special questions: The first asked banks about the reasons for the decline in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the first eight months of 2009, the second asked banks about the status of commercial real estate (CRE) loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, and the third asked banks about potential changes in credit card lending due to implementation of the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (Credit CARD) Act.
The banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. In response to a special question on the sources of the decline in C&I lending this year, the two sources domestic banks cited most often as being "very" important were decreased originations of term loans and decreased draws on revolving credit lines. In response to a second special question, banks indicated that, of the CRE loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, more loans had been extended than refinanced. In response to special questions concerning the Credit CARD legislation passed in May 2009, a majority of banks reported that they had yet to fully comply with the new law. Banks indicated that they expected to tighten many of the terms and conditions of credit card loans as a result of the legislation, with the notable exception of penalty fees and the length of the grace period for payments. These tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 10
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established at least 1.9 % higher than the last one we expect a few months of declines will follow. The new high must be higher because transaction volume is lower than normal indicating a weakness in this rally. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates as this market rallies.
Asian markets were slightly higher last night; China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India down -0.4%, Japan up 0.6%, Seoul up 0.4%and Taiwan up 0.8%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from 0.2% to -0.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,200 again. The U.S. stock-index futures decline indicates the market six-day run may be broken today just when all the GE/MSNBC/Pravda/socialist bears turned bullish again last night.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stocks could drop very sharply if they do not improve earnings. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1.8% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Investment risks will likely rise higher this month.
Market Outlook
Longer term:
Cash is now slowly draining out of the market even as it continues to rise. It appears to be in a quarterly topping phase yet the uncertainty of the Xmas season should protect the market until investors decide at the end of December if consumers are finally re-engaging and becoming more optimistic. If consumers are re-engaging even with the expected high unemployment figures, then the market consolidation could end early in January and the cyclical bull market will likely resume. If sales remain low while unemployment levels are peaking, then we expect a sharp selloff in early January and sideways movement for six to nine months before the cyclical bull market resumes.
Shorter term:
Stronger stocks should rally over the next few weeks and stocks with poor earnings will no longer be good even for speculation but will become poison. Many of Jim Cramer's recommended wireless revolution stocks and speculative pharma and health care stocks will likely tank just as the solar energy stocks tanked this past month. Strength is in, and weakness and doubt are out. We expect to be taking profits and put cash on the sidelines for at least a month. Even if the socialists pass nationalized health care this year we expect the socialists to be thrown out of office before the plan goes into effect.
Today,
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
This week,
Monday, Nov 9
FED releases quarterly loan officer survey results.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 9
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established that is at least 1% higher than the last one, then we expect a few months of declines will follow. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates and cash as the market rallies.
Asian markets were higher last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 1.7%,
India up 2.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 1%.
European markets are up sharply with the average in a range from 1.6% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again. The U.S. stock-index futures advance indicates the market may rise for a sixth day.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stock could drop very sharply if they do not improve. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Longer term:
Cash is now slowly draining out of the market even as it continues to rise. It appears to be in a quarterly topping phase yet the uncertainty of the Xmas season should protect the market until investors decide at the end of December if consumers are finally re-engaging and becoming more optimistic. If consumers are re-engaging even with the expected high unemployment figures, then the market consolidation could end early in January and the cyclical bull market will likely resume. If sales remain low while unemployment levels are peaking, then we expect a sharp selloff in early January and sideways movement for six to nine months before the cyclical bull market resumes.
Shorter term:
Stronger stocks should rally over the next few weeks and stocks with poor earnings will no longer be good even for speculation but will become poison. Many of Jim Cramer's recommended wireless revolution stocks and speculative pharma and health care stocks will likely tank just as the solar energy stocks tanked this past month. Strength is in, and weakness and doubt are out. We expect to be taking profits and put cash on the sidelines for at least a month. Even if the socialists pass nationalized health care this year we expect the socialists to be thrown out of office before the plan goes into effect.
Today,
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
This week,
Monday, Nov 9
FED releases quarterly loan officer survey results.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 9
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established that is at least 1% higher than the last one, then we expect a few months of declines will follow. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates and cash as the market rallies.
Asian markets were higher last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 1.7%,
India up 2.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 1%.
European markets are up sharply with the average in a range from 1.6% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again. The U.S. stock-index futures advance indicates the market may rise for a sixth day.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stock could drop very sharply if they do not improve. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Friday, November 6, 2009
US stocks rise and put the DOW near the high point for 2009. Government socialists have lost their timing.
Some policy makers are concerned that the ECB’s emergency lending to banks could fuel inflation once the economic recovery gathers steam. Treasuries were mixed after the FOMC's decision Wednesday to leave rates unchanged at 0%-0.25% and maintain stimulus plans. The U.K. boosted its economic stimulus, while the European Central bank left rates unchanged.
The dollar index was lower. Gold futures were higher, pushing toward $1,100 an ounce. Crude oil futures were lower. Central banks around the world are starting to wind down some of the measures introduced to stave off a second Great Depression. The Bank of England said today it will slow the pace of bond purchases and the Federal Reserve yesterday outlined the conditions needed for it to raise interest rates. The phasing out of long-term loans is likely to be the first step in the ECB’s exit strategy by winding down liquidity operations. Some policy makers have expressed concern that the economy remains fragile and may want more evidence of a recovery.
This week,
U.S. stocks were higher Thursday following reports that weekly initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, while continuing claims fell 68,000 to 5,749,000; and that third-quarter nonfarm productivity soared by a more than expected 9.5%. We are cautious though because the unemployment compensation bill has not passed and many unemployed have fallen off the records over the last two weeks. That makes the continuing claims deceptive and if the bill passes we will see a spike upward with the unemployed from two skipped weeks coming back on board. The socialist politicians have lost their timing touch. Their little unemployment deception effort was two days late and therefore two late to help their disaster in the elections this week. The figures should spike in two weeks or approximately one week and two days after they pass the Unemployment Compensation Extension bill.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Major retailers reported same-store sales for October benefited from the recovering economy.
Worker productivity improved again.
Today Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 6
The market rally started but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.6%, Japan up 0.7%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 0.6%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% again today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 0.5% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The buying window has shut again for us but if a substantial new high is made and the next decline is less than 5% we will go long again. If however the next low show continued cash flow erosion we may stay in cash.
The dollar index was lower. Gold futures were higher, pushing toward $1,100 an ounce. Crude oil futures were lower. Central banks around the world are starting to wind down some of the measures introduced to stave off a second Great Depression. The Bank of England said today it will slow the pace of bond purchases and the Federal Reserve yesterday outlined the conditions needed for it to raise interest rates. The phasing out of long-term loans is likely to be the first step in the ECB’s exit strategy by winding down liquidity operations. Some policy makers have expressed concern that the economy remains fragile and may want more evidence of a recovery.
This week,
U.S. stocks were higher Thursday following reports that weekly initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, while continuing claims fell 68,000 to 5,749,000; and that third-quarter nonfarm productivity soared by a more than expected 9.5%. We are cautious though because the unemployment compensation bill has not passed and many unemployed have fallen off the records over the last two weeks. That makes the continuing claims deceptive and if the bill passes we will see a spike upward with the unemployed from two skipped weeks coming back on board. The socialist politicians have lost their timing touch. Their little unemployment deception effort was two days late and therefore two late to help their disaster in the elections this week. The figures should spike in two weeks or approximately one week and two days after they pass the Unemployment Compensation Extension bill.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Major retailers reported same-store sales for October benefited from the recovering economy.
Worker productivity improved again.
Today Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 6
The market rally started but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.6%, Japan up 0.7%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 0.6%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% again today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 0.5% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The buying window has shut again for us but if a substantial new high is made and the next decline is less than 5% we will go long again. If however the next low show continued cash flow erosion we may stay in cash.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) plans a massive buy back of its stock now at a bargain price.
The maker of the popular BlackBerry email device, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), will spend up to $1.2 billion to buy back about 21 million of its shares, or 3.6% of its total shares outstanding. The buyback starts Nov. 9 because the stock is so undervalued that it is now considered the best investment they can make. Currently RIMM has the greatest market share in hand held devices but Google and Verizon have recently entered the market along with Apple.
Federal Reserve officials signaled a return to economic growth alone does not warrant higher interest rates. An increase instead depends on when the labor market and inflation pick up. For the week the news has been quite good but the bears control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held each day.
The democrat-socialist party never was much for reality and denies that Americans are rejecting them and are beginning to think it is time to throw them all out. The wreckage they are trying to foist on health care does not take effect until 2013 so there is time to throw the socialists out and scrap their plan for socialized American health care. The administration does not speak truth-to-power but rather they speak lies-to-corruption. The come from Chicago the most corrupt city in America and just were thrown out of the governor's office in New Jersey the second most corrupt state. Corrupt unions drain the coffers in many states and large cutbacks of state workers are needed before the economy will prosper again.
This week,
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Today Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 5
Rimm is buying back its own stock showing confidence that it has a good growth plan and believes RIMM to be the best investment they can make at this time.
We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India up 1%, Japan down -1.3%, and Taiwan down -0.7%.
European markets are down slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Federal Reserve officials signaled a return to economic growth alone does not warrant higher interest rates. An increase instead depends on when the labor market and inflation pick up. For the week the news has been quite good but the bears control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held each day.
The democrat-socialist party never was much for reality and denies that Americans are rejecting them and are beginning to think it is time to throw them all out. The wreckage they are trying to foist on health care does not take effect until 2013 so there is time to throw the socialists out and scrap their plan for socialized American health care. The administration does not speak truth-to-power but rather they speak lies-to-corruption. The come from Chicago the most corrupt city in America and just were thrown out of the governor's office in New Jersey the second most corrupt state. Corrupt unions drain the coffers in many states and large cutbacks of state workers are needed before the economy will prosper again.
This week,
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Today Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 5
Rimm is buying back its own stock showing confidence that it has a good growth plan and believes RIMM to be the best investment they can make at this time.
We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India up 1%, Japan down -1.3%, and Taiwan down -0.7%.
European markets are down slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
The Obama socialists were thrown out in Virginia and New Jersey. This is good news for American liberty and for the world's economy.
For a week the news has been quite good but the bears held control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held.
The democrat-socialist party was unceremoniously thrown out of office in Virginia and New Jersey. Mayor Bloomberg won again in NYC. In upstate NY the republican socialist candidate abdicated her party and threw her support to the democrat socialist who then just managed to defeat a camera shy conservative new-by.
Ford showed American free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter while the nationalized GM and Chrysler are rotting on the vine. GM could not even sell its loser, Opel model.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
Warren Buffett just bought a large railroad for $23 Billion indicating his confidence in the American economy.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Hartford Financial Services Group reported quarter losses declined 90% showing insurance companies are recovering too. Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Today Nov 4
Officials today conclude their meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Cisco is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services. Allstate's report today is expected to swing to a profit. Prudential Financial results are expected to increase from a year earlier.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 4
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on the next advance and purchases should have been made on this bottom. This present bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines. In fact we would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 3.3% again, Japan up -0.4%again, Taiwan up 2%, and Seoul up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps a profit taking opportunity as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
The democrat-socialist party was unceremoniously thrown out of office in Virginia and New Jersey. Mayor Bloomberg won again in NYC. In upstate NY the republican socialist candidate abdicated her party and threw her support to the democrat socialist who then just managed to defeat a camera shy conservative new-by.
Ford showed American free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter while the nationalized GM and Chrysler are rotting on the vine. GM could not even sell its loser, Opel model.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
Warren Buffett just bought a large railroad for $23 Billion indicating his confidence in the American economy.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Hartford Financial Services Group reported quarter losses declined 90% showing insurance companies are recovering too. Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Today Nov 4
Officials today conclude their meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Cisco is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services. Allstate's report today is expected to swing to a profit. Prudential Financial results are expected to increase from a year earlier.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 4
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on the next advance and purchases should have been made on this bottom. This present bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines. In fact we would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 3.3% again, Japan up -0.4%again, Taiwan up 2%, and Seoul up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps a profit taking opportunity as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
EU interferes with English banking causing stock prices to fall.
The EU wants two large English banks to sell off branches to shrink them because they have become too large to allow to fail. The English are up in arms because the socialists were planning to nationalize them to get their bailout money back. The early EU stock market turmoil caused a late Asian market selloff with the exception of China which is poised now to possibly break out and hit a new high.
The European sell-off today also caused US futures to drop. Usually it is the other way around.
Yesterday's news was good but profit taking reduced the market gains.
Ford showed free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity Monday. — PMI at 55.7% up from 52.6% last month. It shows that manufacturing continues to expand.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_ism.htm
Today Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Hartford Financial Services Group reports
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 3
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -3.1% again, Japan down -2.3%again, and Seoul down -0.6%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -1.7% to -2.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the next monthly rally starts.
The European sell-off today also caused US futures to drop. Usually it is the other way around.
Yesterday's news was good but profit taking reduced the market gains.
Ford showed free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity Monday. — PMI at 55.7% up from 52.6% last month. It shows that manufacturing continues to expand.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_ism.htm
Today Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Hartford Financial Services Group reports
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 3
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -3.1% again, Japan down -2.3%again, and Seoul down -0.6%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -1.7% to -2.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the next monthly rally starts.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Whiplash results for investors as record numbers of PUTs were bought last month by wanna-be stock manipulators.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in free market economies? China does not allow this type of manipulation and had no sell-off.
The use of options as insurance is a way to guarantee that your hedge fund will under-perform. But buying millions of puts in the last month to dramatically profit from increasing volatility and pessimism is what we seem to be seeing now. Remember the surge in oil prices in 2008 could not be explained by demand and was blamed on buyers of oil futures. Options have a similar effect on stocks as futures have on commodities. Those who bought PUTs on specific stocks may be the very hedge funds dumping those stocks and willing to lose something to cash in on as the PUTs on their sold stocks skyrocket. Jim Cramer said he saw many sellers of PUTs bankrupted during the DOT-COM collapse. The sharper the decline the more obscene this type of stock manipulation becomes. Manipulators of commodity futures prices contributed to the massive equivalent energy tax the high oil cost levied on the world and probably contributed to the collapse of world economies in 2008.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in the free market system? Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
New reports came out the morning of Oct. 30 and the DOW fell almost 250 points and 2% for the month. The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer recovered from the September stumble. But Consumer income & spending was down and Consumer Sentiment declined.
Then Ford Motor Co. unions have rejected contract concessions the automaker said it needed to remain competitive with its U.S. rivals. And all week Wall Street waited for CIT Group Inc., a 101-year-old commercial lender, to finally file for bankruptcy underwater by $10 billion. Market manipulators had pumped over 80% of the stocks to new 52 week highs on six months of Pollyanna news and now the manipulators own puts and are trying to depress the stock market as the manipulators succeeded last week.
This week has a very heavy business calendar of the same type of important potential market moving economic reports that have been roiling the market day-to-day in both directions over the last couple of weeks. Wall Street media is likely to describe a stabilizing advertising market after years of declines when they report third-quarter results next week. Viacom reports Tuesday followed a day later by Time Warner that owns the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Broadcaster CBS Corp. reports Thursday.
Three major hedge-fund managers will post third-quarter results as their funds capture their high-water marks. Och-Ziff Capital Management LLC reports Tuesday, is likely to see improvement in all of its funds. Fortress Investment Group and Blackstone Group are expected to swing to the black when they report Friday.
Monday Nov 2
Economic reports out Monday are expected to show a small rise in pending home sales and a small decline in construction spending in September. The Institute for Supply Management reports on manufacturing activity Monday. The Institute for Supply Management reports on the service sector Wednesday.
Tuesday Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 2
Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India down -1% again, Japan down -2.3%, and Seoul down -1.4%. China does not allow manipulation of stock prices with heavy options trading. Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from 0% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the market makes a new high. That depends on whether most the PUT buyers cashed in last Friday.
Some companies apparently are big enough to manipulate the market with options now. This could be as dangerous to the US economy as the mortgage derivative market was. Futures and Options are derivatives of their respective markets and if a company buys enough stock on dips they drive the price higher and causing volatility on the down side to subside. Then they can buy out-of-the-money PUTs at lower stock price levels and then quickly dump their stock and subsequently profit enormously by cashing in their skyrocketing PUTs.
The use of options as insurance is a way to guarantee that your hedge fund will under-perform. But buying millions of puts in the last month to dramatically profit from increasing volatility and pessimism is what we seem to be seeing now. Remember the surge in oil prices in 2008 could not be explained by demand and was blamed on buyers of oil futures. Options have a similar effect on stocks as futures have on commodities. Those who bought PUTs on specific stocks may be the very hedge funds dumping those stocks and willing to lose something to cash in on as the PUTs on their sold stocks skyrocket. Jim Cramer said he saw many sellers of PUTs bankrupted during the DOT-COM collapse. The sharper the decline the more obscene this type of stock manipulation becomes. Manipulators of commodity futures prices contributed to the massive equivalent energy tax the high oil cost levied on the world and probably contributed to the collapse of world economies in 2008.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in the free market system? Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
New reports came out the morning of Oct. 30 and the DOW fell almost 250 points and 2% for the month. The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer recovered from the September stumble. But Consumer income & spending was down and Consumer Sentiment declined.
Then Ford Motor Co. unions have rejected contract concessions the automaker said it needed to remain competitive with its U.S. rivals. And all week Wall Street waited for CIT Group Inc., a 101-year-old commercial lender, to finally file for bankruptcy underwater by $10 billion. Market manipulators had pumped over 80% of the stocks to new 52 week highs on six months of Pollyanna news and now the manipulators own puts and are trying to depress the stock market as the manipulators succeeded last week.
This week has a very heavy business calendar of the same type of important potential market moving economic reports that have been roiling the market day-to-day in both directions over the last couple of weeks. Wall Street media is likely to describe a stabilizing advertising market after years of declines when they report third-quarter results next week. Viacom reports Tuesday followed a day later by Time Warner that owns the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Broadcaster CBS Corp. reports Thursday.
Three major hedge-fund managers will post third-quarter results as their funds capture their high-water marks. Och-Ziff Capital Management LLC reports Tuesday, is likely to see improvement in all of its funds. Fortress Investment Group and Blackstone Group are expected to swing to the black when they report Friday.
Monday Nov 2
Economic reports out Monday are expected to show a small rise in pending home sales and a small decline in construction spending in September. The Institute for Supply Management reports on manufacturing activity Monday. The Institute for Supply Management reports on the service sector Wednesday.
Tuesday Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 2
Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India down -1% again, Japan down -2.3%, and Seoul down -1.4%. China does not allow manipulation of stock prices with heavy options trading. Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from 0% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the market makes a new high. That depends on whether most the PUT buyers cashed in last Friday.
Some companies apparently are big enough to manipulate the market with options now. This could be as dangerous to the US economy as the mortgage derivative market was. Futures and Options are derivatives of their respective markets and if a company buys enough stock on dips they drive the price higher and causing volatility on the down side to subside. Then they can buy out-of-the-money PUTs at lower stock price levels and then quickly dump their stock and subsequently profit enormously by cashing in their skyrocketing PUTs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)