The Federal Reserve asked a U.S. appeals court to block a ruling that for the first time would force the central bank to reveal secret identities and the special favors to financial firms that might have collapsed without the largest government bailout in U.S. history. Likewise they do not want Americans to know how the administration blackballed BOA with regard to their resistance to the FED forced Merrill merger.
Bernacki's approval is now on hold by four Senators, and Geithner is seen as an arrogant dishonest fool on capital hill. But unemployment continues to rise as the favored administration banking criminals take bonuses instead of jail sentences for selling worthless derivatives to trusting investors. Ignorance of what they were selling is no excuse and certainly nothing to be rewarded with a bonus.
Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported fourth-quarter loss that topped analysts’ estimates by a factor of six. The net loss of $277 million, or 28 cents a share however narrowed from the loss of $1.19 billion, or $1.49, a year earlier before major layoffs. Sales fell another 4.5 percent in 2009 to $5.43 billion. Higher energy prices and the dollar's decline hurt profits. John Stephenson, who helps manage at First Asset Investment Management said, “This quarter was disappointing, especially with the energy costs, and having to buy primary aluminum on the open market,” The miss on earnings was “significant,” he said.
Electronic Arts Inc., the world’s second-largest video-game publisher, reported preliminary third- quarter earnings and revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates after poor holiday sales.
World Outlook
China's exports increased for the first time in over a year. European share indices shed 1.2 percent by their midday as commodity issues and banks dropped sharply on news China has raised its banks' reserve requirements, in a tighter monetary policy. Mines led the blue chip retreat as metal prices fell further following the move by China, with the sector already under pressure after disappointing fourth-quarter results overnight from U.S. Alcoa
Market Week News:
Treasury bill auctions show rising rates. Yield on the benchmark 91-day paper, the rate used as reference by banks for their short-term loans, rose to 3.914 percent from 3.887 percent in the December auction. The 182-day bill rose to 4.129 percent from 4.095 percent and the 364-day paper increased to 4.582 percent from 4.562 percent. Excess liquidity in the financial system capped the rise despite forecast of increasing inflation and a wider budget deficit. Total tenders for the 8.5 billion offering, which was awarded in full, reached 23.39 billion.
Confidence among small businesses declined in December to the lowest level in five months as the outlook for sales remained dim, according to the National Federation of Independent Business optimism index. It declined to 88 in December from 88.3 in November.
Tuesday, Jan. 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Wednesday, Jan. 13:
FED's Beige book outlook
Thursday, Jan. 14:
Continuing claims
Unemployment initial claims
December Retail Sales
Friday, Jan. 15:
Consumer Price Index
NY Manufacturing Index
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment
Market forces January 12, 2010
The US market continues relatively flat for six weeks while Asian markets have declined since August.
Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market implies the government has been investing in American stocks and artificially caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds. It is similar to when Alan Greenspan flooded the market in 1986 to stop the October stock panic. The more government props up unhealthy institutions with clearly ignorant and piggish bank derivative investment executives the greater the moral hazard grows.
Asian markets were mixed over night; Shanghai up 1.9%, Hong Kong down -0.4%, India down -0.6%, and Japan up 0.8%.
European markets are down sharply with the average in a range from -1% to -1.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about 0.6% today at 8:00 AM EST.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
Socialist gravy train infusion is coming to an end.
Treasury bonds, not the US dollar, were the biggest losers of the year. The greenback was off a modest 4% on the year while Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index lost 21.4%. But the end of the liquidity gravy train will likely be the main driver in coming weeks, with the fear of swelling supply for sale as the second. And with sentiment polls showing bullishness at levels similar to those late 2007 it is a high perch from which to fall. The change in market tone from joy to fear can easily flip-flop stocks and Treasury bonds, again.
All commodities as measured by the Reuters-CRB index of 17 commodities futures prices were up over 30% in 2009. This index is the original formulation of the CRB index and has a heavier agricultural commodity component. Having it up by as much as it was tells us that it was more that just the two big guns—gold and oil—that rallied.
The Obama leftists are not going to be happy when they find out they are propping up Wall Street. Wall Street is toasting leftist economic incompetence with new bonuses for the Obama secret windfall stock profits that Trim Tab thinks identified as likely from the government.
World Outlook
China's exports increased for the first time in over a year.
Market Week News:
Monday, Jan. 11
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Jan. 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Wednesday, Jan. 13:
FED's Beige book outlook
Thursday, Jan. 14:
Unemployment Claims
December Retail Sales
Friday, Jan. 15:
Consumer Price Index
NY Manufacturing Index
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment
Market forces January 11, 2010
The US market has been relatively flat for six weeks while Asian markets have declined since August. Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market implies the government has been investing in American stocks and artificially caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds.
Asian markets were up over night; Hong Kong up 0.5%, India down -0.1%, South Korea down -0.1%, Taiwan up 0.5%, and Japan up 1.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.5% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up about 0.25% today at 8:30 AM EST.
All commodities as measured by the Reuters-CRB index of 17 commodities futures prices were up over 30% in 2009. This index is the original formulation of the CRB index and has a heavier agricultural commodity component. Having it up by as much as it was tells us that it was more that just the two big guns—gold and oil—that rallied.
The Obama leftists are not going to be happy when they find out they are propping up Wall Street. Wall Street is toasting leftist economic incompetence with new bonuses for the Obama secret windfall stock profits that Trim Tab thinks identified as likely from the government.
World Outlook
China's exports increased for the first time in over a year.
Market Week News:
Monday, Jan. 11
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Jan. 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Wednesday, Jan. 13:
FED's Beige book outlook
Thursday, Jan. 14:
Unemployment Claims
December Retail Sales
Friday, Jan. 15:
Consumer Price Index
NY Manufacturing Index
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment
Market forces January 11, 2010
The US market has been relatively flat for six weeks while Asian markets have declined since August. Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market implies the government has been investing in American stocks and artificially caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds.
Asian markets were up over night; Hong Kong up 0.5%, India down -0.1%, South Korea down -0.1%, Taiwan up 0.5%, and Japan up 1.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.5% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up about 0.25% today at 8:30 AM EST.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Obama Government supporting miracle stock market rally with taxpayer money?
It is becoming clear that the FED is not disclosing to the Congress much of the government's manipulation of the economy. Democrat Cummings says treasury secretary Timothy Geithner should testify before Congress about efforts by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to limit American International Group Inc.’s disclosures of payments to banks. That is correct… that the FED has been doing secret payments that could explain the markets.
All the money seems have been leaving the US stock market and going into the bond and foreign markets. So where has the money come from to sustain the 50% rally in US stocks? Did the FED buy into the US stock market?
Facts:
1.OUTFLOWS from U.S. stock funds occurred all 0f 2009
2.RECORD AMOUNT ($311 billion) of new stock offerings (includes IPOs, secondaries, and converts, but particularly a large offering of secondaries in the second half of the year);
3.Announced cash Mergers &Acquisitions, as well as corporate stock buybacks, AT THE LOWEST LEVELS FOR ANY YEAR THIS DECADE.
And
1.U.S. stock funds: $32 billion Outflows
2.U.S. ETFs: $18 billion OUTFLOWS
3.International stock funds: $26 billion INFLOWS
4.International ETFs: $35 billion INFLOWS
5.U.S. bond funds: $370 billion INFLOWS
6.U.S. bond ETFs: $39 billion INFLOWS See:
http://www.forexhound.com/article/Stocks/Stocks/Charles_Biderman_of_TrimTabs_Claims_US_Government_Supporting_Stock_Market/174316
Trim Tab thinks the US government could be buying US index funds to prop up the balance sheets of the banks. Banks with greater than 20:1 leverage can be completely wiped out by a 5% loss. The average US stock lost 50% to 75% by March 2009 before the miracle rally on wall street that occurred while the private sector sold US stocks to but treasuries, Foreign stocks, and corporate bonds.
See Warning: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucZBrQVCzBc
The Obama leftists are not going to be happy if they find out they are propping up Wall Street and Wall Street is toasting leftist economic incompetence with new bonuses for the Obama secret windfall stock profits.
World Outlook
China raised their central bank interest rate to try to stem rampant inflation of domestic prices as China shifts towards more of a consumer society. Asian economies seem to be stagnating. If the malaise continues a sharp market correction is anticipated.
The FED issued a warning yesterday to banks telling them to prepare now for higher interest rates. Higher long-term rates are outside FED control because they depend on the market. And the FED also warned that short-term rates would rise when they begin draining the cash out of the economy. This has an immediate negative effect for the stock market. Banks are going to be reluctant to give housing and other longer-term loans. This will dry up mortgage loans and refinancing very rapidly.
Market Outlook:
Monster Worldwide, an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index fell in December to the lowest level in five months. The index was 119 in November and 115 in December and is 12% below the 131 mark a year ago. The Monster figures came a day after the ADP National Employment Report that showed an 84,000 loss of private sector jobs in December.
Since November, commodity prices have risen even while the dollar has appreciated in value indicating that price inflation is beginning to kick in. The difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened to within 4 basis points, the most in at least 20 years as the Federal Reserve signaled it will hold its target interest rate at a record low. The much higher future rate indicates future inflation risk is higher than perceived future deflation risk. But there is a long way to go before inflation kicks in. For that reason precious metals and commodity prices will bounce upwards and fall back many times before the climax is hit and the FED tightens down rigorously similar to when they popped the bubble in 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9. 50% means as many $orders rose as declined. Anything less than 50% is a contraction in manufacturing. The Christmas season accounts for almost 50% of annual non-commercial sales.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Service related employment declined again in December. FOMC minutes of last month debated increasing and extending asset purchases anticipating a weakening economy as stimulus ends and new taxes begin..
Yesterday:
New unemployment claims filed last week increased to 434,000.
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report: The overall jobless rate held at 10 percent. The report was that 85,000 jobs were lost in December, considerably worse than expected. However the number of workers who have been unemployed longer than 6 months rose by 229,000 to 6.13 million.
Market forces January 8, 2010
The NYSE just reached its previous high but did not establish a new high and still can be interpreted as a head and shoulder sell signal if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The modified MACD indicator still has a sell signal. The US market has been relatively flat for six weeks.
Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market says the government has been investing in American stocks and artificially caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds. Socialists are known for taking ownership to get the changes they demand. It is likely the US government would buy the market index funds so as not to distort individual stock prices. It means the stock market recovery will be capped until the US government sells what they have bought. By draining money out of the economy the government may be planning to take the 50% profit from the stock market rally beginning very soon. If it were done rapidly the stock market would collapse. So instead we should expect a general long-term cap on the markets.
Asian markets were up over night; Hong Kong up 0.1%, India down -0.4%, South Korea up 0.7%, Taiwan up 0.5%, and Japan up 1.1%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from 0.6% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.2% today at 9:00 AM EST.
All the money seems have been leaving the US stock market and going into the bond and foreign markets. So where has the money come from to sustain the 50% rally in US stocks? Did the FED buy into the US stock market?
Facts:
1.OUTFLOWS from U.S. stock funds occurred all 0f 2009
2.RECORD AMOUNT ($311 billion) of new stock offerings (includes IPOs, secondaries, and converts, but particularly a large offering of secondaries in the second half of the year);
3.Announced cash Mergers &Acquisitions, as well as corporate stock buybacks, AT THE LOWEST LEVELS FOR ANY YEAR THIS DECADE.
And
1.U.S. stock funds: $32 billion Outflows
2.U.S. ETFs: $18 billion OUTFLOWS
3.International stock funds: $26 billion INFLOWS
4.International ETFs: $35 billion INFLOWS
5.U.S. bond funds: $370 billion INFLOWS
6.U.S. bond ETFs: $39 billion INFLOWS See:
http://www.forexhound.com/article/Stocks/Stocks/Charles_Biderman_of_TrimTabs_Claims_US_Government_Supporting_Stock_Market/174316
Trim Tab thinks the US government could be buying US index funds to prop up the balance sheets of the banks. Banks with greater than 20:1 leverage can be completely wiped out by a 5% loss. The average US stock lost 50% to 75% by March 2009 before the miracle rally on wall street that occurred while the private sector sold US stocks to but treasuries, Foreign stocks, and corporate bonds.
See Warning: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucZBrQVCzBc
The Obama leftists are not going to be happy if they find out they are propping up Wall Street and Wall Street is toasting leftist economic incompetence with new bonuses for the Obama secret windfall stock profits.
World Outlook
China raised their central bank interest rate to try to stem rampant inflation of domestic prices as China shifts towards more of a consumer society. Asian economies seem to be stagnating. If the malaise continues a sharp market correction is anticipated.
The FED issued a warning yesterday to banks telling them to prepare now for higher interest rates. Higher long-term rates are outside FED control because they depend on the market. And the FED also warned that short-term rates would rise when they begin draining the cash out of the economy. This has an immediate negative effect for the stock market. Banks are going to be reluctant to give housing and other longer-term loans. This will dry up mortgage loans and refinancing very rapidly.
Market Outlook:
Monster Worldwide, an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index fell in December to the lowest level in five months. The index was 119 in November and 115 in December and is 12% below the 131 mark a year ago. The Monster figures came a day after the ADP National Employment Report that showed an 84,000 loss of private sector jobs in December.
Since November, commodity prices have risen even while the dollar has appreciated in value indicating that price inflation is beginning to kick in. The difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened to within 4 basis points, the most in at least 20 years as the Federal Reserve signaled it will hold its target interest rate at a record low. The much higher future rate indicates future inflation risk is higher than perceived future deflation risk. But there is a long way to go before inflation kicks in. For that reason precious metals and commodity prices will bounce upwards and fall back many times before the climax is hit and the FED tightens down rigorously similar to when they popped the bubble in 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9. 50% means as many $orders rose as declined. Anything less than 50% is a contraction in manufacturing. The Christmas season accounts for almost 50% of annual non-commercial sales.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Service related employment declined again in December. FOMC minutes of last month debated increasing and extending asset purchases anticipating a weakening economy as stimulus ends and new taxes begin..
Yesterday:
New unemployment claims filed last week increased to 434,000.
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report: The overall jobless rate held at 10 percent. The report was that 85,000 jobs were lost in December, considerably worse than expected. However the number of workers who have been unemployed longer than 6 months rose by 229,000 to 6.13 million.
Market forces January 8, 2010
The NYSE just reached its previous high but did not establish a new high and still can be interpreted as a head and shoulder sell signal if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The modified MACD indicator still has a sell signal. The US market has been relatively flat for six weeks.
Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market says the government has been investing in American stocks and artificially caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds. Socialists are known for taking ownership to get the changes they demand. It is likely the US government would buy the market index funds so as not to distort individual stock prices. It means the stock market recovery will be capped until the US government sells what they have bought. By draining money out of the economy the government may be planning to take the 50% profit from the stock market rally beginning very soon. If it were done rapidly the stock market would collapse. So instead we should expect a general long-term cap on the markets.
Asian markets were up over night; Hong Kong up 0.1%, India down -0.4%, South Korea up 0.7%, Taiwan up 0.5%, and Japan up 1.1%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from 0.6% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.2% today at 9:00 AM EST.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Socialists in congress flee their sinking ship like
World Outlook
Asian economies seem to stagnating. If the Asian malaise continues a sharp market correction is anticipated.
Good news… Senator Dodd and others will be bailing out and there is still a good chance the damage the socialists plan to inflict after the 2010 and 2012 elections will be safely defused by throwing them out of office. That is good news for the world because free enterprise and creativity would get a new lease on life.
Market Outlook:
Zale Corp., the Texas-based jewelry chain, said December sales at stores open at least a year fell 9.2 percent. But Macys is raising their profit estimates 2%.
Since November, commodity prices have risen even while the dollar has appreciated in value indicating that price inflation is beginning to kick in. The difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened to almost 4 percent, the most in at least 20 years as the Federal Reserve signaled it will hold its target interest rate at a record low. The much higher future rate indicates future inflation risk is higher than perceived future deflation risk. But there is a long way to go before inflation kicks in. For that reason precious metals and commodity prices will bounce upwards and fall back many times before the climax is hit and the FED tightens down rigorously similar to when they popped the bubble in 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Factory Orders showed 1.1% growing demand in November for a wide range of U.S. factory products, signaling the potential for stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Demand beat forecasts.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Yesterday:
The decline in December service related employment was the smallest since March of 2008. Employment losses are now diminishing and, if recent trends continue, service related employment could begin rising within the next few months. FOMC minutes of last month debated increasing and extending asset purchases anticipating a weakening economy as stimulus ends and new taxes begin..
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 7, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 0.2% from yesterday's close to just equal the previous high and not be interpreted as a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market has been flat for six weeks and it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market says the government has been investing in American stocks and caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds. Socialists are known for taking ownership to get the changes they demand.
Asian markets were down over night; China holiday, Hong Kong down -0.7%, India down -0.5%, South Korea down -1.3%, Taiwan down -1.1%, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
Asian economies seem to stagnating. If the Asian malaise continues a sharp market correction is anticipated.
Good news… Senator Dodd and others will be bailing out and there is still a good chance the damage the socialists plan to inflict after the 2010 and 2012 elections will be safely defused by throwing them out of office. That is good news for the world because free enterprise and creativity would get a new lease on life.
Market Outlook:
Zale Corp., the Texas-based jewelry chain, said December sales at stores open at least a year fell 9.2 percent. But Macys is raising their profit estimates 2%.
Since November, commodity prices have risen even while the dollar has appreciated in value indicating that price inflation is beginning to kick in. The difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened to almost 4 percent, the most in at least 20 years as the Federal Reserve signaled it will hold its target interest rate at a record low. The much higher future rate indicates future inflation risk is higher than perceived future deflation risk. But there is a long way to go before inflation kicks in. For that reason precious metals and commodity prices will bounce upwards and fall back many times before the climax is hit and the FED tightens down rigorously similar to when they popped the bubble in 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Factory Orders showed 1.1% growing demand in November for a wide range of U.S. factory products, signaling the potential for stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Demand beat forecasts.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Yesterday:
The decline in December service related employment was the smallest since March of 2008. Employment losses are now diminishing and, if recent trends continue, service related employment could begin rising within the next few months. FOMC minutes of last month debated increasing and extending asset purchases anticipating a weakening economy as stimulus ends and new taxes begin..
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 7, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 0.2% from yesterday's close to just equal the previous high and not be interpreted as a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market has been flat for six weeks and it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Research, a firm that keeps track of liquidity flows into and out of the market says the government has been investing in American stocks and caused the recent rally to create the illusion of a recovery. Biderman said, “We cannot identify the source of new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast." He says the money didn’t come from companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds, or pension funds. Socialists are known for taking ownership to get the changes they demand.
Asian markets were down over night; China holiday, Hong Kong down -0.7%, India down -0.5%, South Korea down -1.3%, Taiwan down -1.1%, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Market in Asia stagnated and now is breaking new lows.
Just a reminder, I was quite bullish on Obama as were most Americans when he was elected because he was well spoken and the Republicans could not find qualified candidates to run against him. But by the end of his first month in office he showed us his communist advisors and demonstrated his complete ignorance of economics. Remember Obama did not even know the function of the stock market or what a PE ratio was. By the end of February I lost all faith in the Obama administration. Now most Americans wonder why they ever thought he any good.
World Outlook
China was going flat since August but the most recent low was lower that the previous low and the current high is also lower than the previous high indicating the market rally is about over. Asian markets have recently led the Western markets upward and will likely lead us flat and back down.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=000001.SS&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=
Good news… Dodd plans to announce he will not run for senate this year. It would be wonderful if Rankle (or is his name rancor) would resign this year too so we would be rid of the two on the Senate Banking Committee that enabled liars and cheats to get government backed home mortgages that subsequently brought down the entire world economy. It was reported that 60% of public pension plans lost so much due to Senate condoned home mortgage fraud that they have a huge shortfall of funds needed to meet future pension requirements of public employees including teachers, firemen, local and state government employees. No the Terminator wants a private sector taxpayer bail out.
Market Outlook:
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low still has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today). The current recovery appears to be far less than expected for the trillions of dollars the Obama socialists have squandered on ACORN criminals and the socialist welfare class they hope to cultivate to control American elections in the future. Obama was the first to achieve critical mass of indigents and self-loathing Americans who truly relish living the good "don't worry" life of third world citizens. America, the last bastion of "true liberty" creativity, scientific research, advanced medicines, and free enterprise traded "nationalist socialism/world communism" for a brief moment of about six months before the "Tea Parties" showed that most Americans have already had their fill of totalitarianism. Socialist totalitarianism exploits crises to build a voter base of indigents and then buys off the indigent to maintain a voting block. For every government job created for an incompetent political hack the private sector loses 1.6 private sector jobs. The people in make-work government jobs are not counted as unemployed. So in countries like France there is usually at over 20% unemployment when you include the unproductive patronage jobs and the short work-week that people who pretend to work prefer.
In 1990 the Japanese mocked American free enterprise by calling it "cowboy economics" because American growth requires creative destruction of the outmoded jobs to motivate workers to learn new needed skills. Japan's dream of permanent jobs has resulted in 20+ years so far of deflation and recession.
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Yesterday:
Factory Orders showed 1.1% growing demand in November for a wide range of U.S. factory products, signaling the potential for stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Demand beat forecasts.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 6, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 0.6% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong up 0.6%, India up 0.1%, and Japan up 0.5%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient to suggest that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million new entitlements for illegals and indigents who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money to vote for socialists. In former socialist countries and many current socialist countries (even Iran) if you do not support the regime you cannot have an education or a decent job. Control of government jobs is how dictators stay in power. That is why intelligent people flee socialism. That is why so many British, Canadians, Europeans, and Indians try to become American citizens. They used to call America the land of opportunity and we call the immigrants the world brain drain to America. With Obama socialism that era will rapidly come to an end.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
World Outlook
China was going flat since August but the most recent low was lower that the previous low and the current high is also lower than the previous high indicating the market rally is about over. Asian markets have recently led the Western markets upward and will likely lead us flat and back down.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=000001.SS&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=
Good news… Dodd plans to announce he will not run for senate this year. It would be wonderful if Rankle (or is his name rancor) would resign this year too so we would be rid of the two on the Senate Banking Committee that enabled liars and cheats to get government backed home mortgages that subsequently brought down the entire world economy. It was reported that 60% of public pension plans lost so much due to Senate condoned home mortgage fraud that they have a huge shortfall of funds needed to meet future pension requirements of public employees including teachers, firemen, local and state government employees. No the Terminator wants a private sector taxpayer bail out.
Market Outlook:
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low still has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today). The current recovery appears to be far less than expected for the trillions of dollars the Obama socialists have squandered on ACORN criminals and the socialist welfare class they hope to cultivate to control American elections in the future. Obama was the first to achieve critical mass of indigents and self-loathing Americans who truly relish living the good "don't worry" life of third world citizens. America, the last bastion of "true liberty" creativity, scientific research, advanced medicines, and free enterprise traded "nationalist socialism/world communism" for a brief moment of about six months before the "Tea Parties" showed that most Americans have already had their fill of totalitarianism. Socialist totalitarianism exploits crises to build a voter base of indigents and then buys off the indigent to maintain a voting block. For every government job created for an incompetent political hack the private sector loses 1.6 private sector jobs. The people in make-work government jobs are not counted as unemployed. So in countries like France there is usually at over 20% unemployment when you include the unproductive patronage jobs and the short work-week that people who pretend to work prefer.
In 1990 the Japanese mocked American free enterprise by calling it "cowboy economics" because American growth requires creative destruction of the outmoded jobs to motivate workers to learn new needed skills. Japan's dream of permanent jobs has resulted in 20+ years so far of deflation and recession.
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Yesterday:
Factory Orders showed 1.1% growing demand in November for a wide range of U.S. factory products, signaling the potential for stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Demand beat forecasts.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes - a forecasting gauge of housing-market activity - slid 16% in November. That represents the first decline in the index in 10 month, and more than triple the size of the drop analysts had expected.
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 6, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 0.6% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong up 0.6%, India up 0.1%, and Japan up 0.5%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient to suggest that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million new entitlements for illegals and indigents who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money to vote for socialists. In former socialist countries and many current socialist countries (even Iran) if you do not support the regime you cannot have an education or a decent job. Control of government jobs is how dictators stay in power. That is why intelligent people flee socialism. That is why so many British, Canadians, Europeans, and Indians try to become American citizens. They used to call America the land of opportunity and we call the immigrants the world brain drain to America. With Obama socialism that era will rapidly come to an end.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Stocks Rally as Dollar Falls, Manufacturing Grows, home sales decline, and Oil Climbs Above $80
World Outlook
Starting December 2008 shortly after Obama told workers in Peoria that Caterpillar would be hiring soon, Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts 2010 sales will increase as much as 10 percent. Most of the Caterpillar sales business is overseas in Asia.
Market Outlook:
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today).
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Tuesday, Jan.5:
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 5, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 1.1% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a real rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong up 2.1%, India up 0.7%, Seoul down -0.3%, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures flat at about -0.2% today at 6:30 AM EST.
There is a similarity between the 1930 rally and 2009's rally. From the March low the S&P 500 has soared 69 percent in nine months. In doing so it recovered a bit more than 50 percent of its former losses. But it's still 27 percent below its all time high of October 2007. Yes, the market rallied strongly in 2009. But it did the same thing in 1930. History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient to believe that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million new entitlements for indigents and illegals who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money to vote for socialists. In former socialist countries and many current socialist countries (even Iran) if you do not support the regime you cannot have a university education or a decent job. Government jobs are how dictators stay in power. That is why intelligent people flee socialism. That is why so many British, Canadians, Europeans, and Indians try to become American citizens. They used to call America the land of opportunity.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
Starting December 2008 shortly after Obama told workers in Peoria that Caterpillar would be hiring soon, Caterpillar cut about 18,700 full-time jobs and about the same number of temporary workers as the global recession reduced demand. The Peoria, Illinois-based company predicts 2010 sales will increase as much as 10 percent. Most of the Caterpillar sales business is overseas in Asia.
Market Outlook:
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today).
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group.
Spending on construction projects dropped 0.6 percent in November, to the lowest level in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Tuesday, Jan.5:
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 5, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 1.1% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a real rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The modified MACD indicator gave a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong up 2.1%, India up 0.7%, Seoul down -0.3%, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures flat at about -0.2% today at 6:30 AM EST.
There is a similarity between the 1930 rally and 2009's rally. From the March low the S&P 500 has soared 69 percent in nine months. In doing so it recovered a bit more than 50 percent of its former losses. But it's still 27 percent below its all time high of October 2007. Yes, the market rallied strongly in 2009. But it did the same thing in 1930. History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient to believe that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million new entitlements for indigents and illegals who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money to vote for socialists. In former socialist countries and many current socialist countries (even Iran) if you do not support the regime you cannot have a university education or a decent job. Government jobs are how dictators stay in power. That is why intelligent people flee socialism. That is why so many British, Canadians, Europeans, and Indians try to become American citizens. They used to call America the land of opportunity.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Obama administration’s first response was “the system worked really smoothly.”
World Outlook
Janet Napolitano, the secretary of homeland security defended her comments that passengers who risked their lives to extinguished the fire in the Nigerian’s explosive under pants during his attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day showed that Obama's security “system worked really smoothly.”
President Barack Obama's top counterterrorism adviser Brennan said Sunday "There was no single piece of intelligence that said, 'this guy is going to get on a plane." It is not fair to single out African Islamic Arabs trained in Yemen just because their relatives turn them in. That is not due process and we must give terrorists our American rights. Obama believes there are no terrorists any more, just underprivileged people who still hate Bush. He inherited the problem so it is not his fault! Blame Bush. Obama then closed embassy in Yemen where the African Islamic Arab came from. This weekend his spokesman said we shouldn't focus on Islamic Arab terrorists because who knows… they could hold grandchildren hostage to force white American grandma to carry explosives on board. Obama's security advisers are obviously simple minded to think white American grandma is more dangerous than Islamic Arabs from Africa and the Middle East.
Iranian socialist Islamic terrorist state continues to gun down student protestors and Obama administration continues to watch and offer no support to the victims of Iranian Islamic terrorism. American hikers in disputed Iraq-Iran border continue to be held hostage in Iran. Iran steps up their nuclear weapon's program for world nuclear terrorism.
Market Outlook:
One of the most basic technical rules says that sustainable stock market rallies are accompanied by high volume on advances and declining volume on declines. By contrast, bear market rallies are characterized by low and falling activity on advances. Our market cash flow index says this rally is no longer sound. The problem got more pronounced during December. In 2009 the market rose roughly 50 percent from its March low. In 1930, the market rose roughly 50 percent from its 1929 crash low. This current monster rally led many economists, politicians and financial market experts to declare that the worst was over and the recovery had begun. The 1930 rally caused many in universities to claim that communism works better than socialism and that capitalism was a failure.
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the frightening bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today).
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
This Weeks business reports:
Monday, Jan. 4:
ISM Mfg Index
Construction Spending
Tuesday, Jan.5:
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 4, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 3.5% from last Thursday's close to be interpreted as a real rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator just joined the technical sell signals. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The MACD indicator is also poised to give a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India up 0.5%, and Japan up 1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures flat at about 0.5% today at 7:00 AM EST.
There is a similarity between the 1930 rally and 2009's rally. From the March low the S&P 500 has soared 69 percent in nine months. In doing so it recovered a bit more than 50 percent of its former losses. But it's still 27 percent below its all time high of October 2007. Yes, the market rallied strongly in 2009. But it did the same thing in 1930. History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient enough to reason that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million entitlements for indigents who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
Janet Napolitano, the secretary of homeland security defended her comments that passengers who risked their lives to extinguished the fire in the Nigerian’s explosive under pants during his attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day showed that Obama's security “system worked really smoothly.”
President Barack Obama's top counterterrorism adviser Brennan said Sunday "There was no single piece of intelligence that said, 'this guy is going to get on a plane." It is not fair to single out African Islamic Arabs trained in Yemen just because their relatives turn them in. That is not due process and we must give terrorists our American rights. Obama believes there are no terrorists any more, just underprivileged people who still hate Bush. He inherited the problem so it is not his fault! Blame Bush. Obama then closed embassy in Yemen where the African Islamic Arab came from. This weekend his spokesman said we shouldn't focus on Islamic Arab terrorists because who knows… they could hold grandchildren hostage to force white American grandma to carry explosives on board. Obama's security advisers are obviously simple minded to think white American grandma is more dangerous than Islamic Arabs from Africa and the Middle East.
Iranian socialist Islamic terrorist state continues to gun down student protestors and Obama administration continues to watch and offer no support to the victims of Iranian Islamic terrorism. American hikers in disputed Iraq-Iran border continue to be held hostage in Iran. Iran steps up their nuclear weapon's program for world nuclear terrorism.
Market Outlook:
One of the most basic technical rules says that sustainable stock market rallies are accompanied by high volume on advances and declining volume on declines. By contrast, bear market rallies are characterized by low and falling activity on advances. Our market cash flow index says this rally is no longer sound. The problem got more pronounced during December. In 2009 the market rose roughly 50 percent from its March low. In 1930, the market rose roughly 50 percent from its 1929 crash low. This current monster rally led many economists, politicians and financial market experts to declare that the worst was over and the recovery had begun. The 1930 rally caused many in universities to claim that communism works better than socialism and that capitalism was a failure.
This current stock market rise off the March 2009 low has the look of a bear market rally comparable it to the frightening bear market rally and subsequent collapse of 1930. The recovery did not come in 1930, in fact the Great Depression had barely started, and the stock market suffered losses of another 85 percent measured from the interim bear rally high of 1930 (where we are by analogy today).
The final numbers are in. The Obama ‘cash for clunkers’ program last summer resulted in the sale of 320,000 Japanese vehicles in the U.S.
This Weeks business reports:
Monday, Jan. 4:
ISM Mfg Index
Construction Spending
Tuesday, Jan.5:
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, Jan. 6:
ADP Jobs Report
FOMC minutes
Thursday, Jan. 7:
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.8:
December unemployment report
Market forces January 4, 2010
We estimate the NYSE must rise 3.5% from last Thursday's close to be interpreted as a real rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator just joined the technical sell signals. At this point it appears the rally is over. The next sell confirmation will be if the neck resistance level (of the head and shoulders formation) breaks down on the volume adjusted NYSE market cash flow index. The MACD indicator is also poised to give a sell signal.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China holiday, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India up 0.5%, and Japan up 1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures flat at about 0.5% today at 7:00 AM EST.
There is a similarity between the 1930 rally and 2009's rally. From the March low the S&P 500 has soared 69 percent in nine months. In doing so it recovered a bit more than 50 percent of its former losses. But it's still 27 percent below its all time high of October 2007. Yes, the market rallied strongly in 2009. But it did the same thing in 1930. History then tells us that the current stock market rally is not sufficient enough to reason that the worst is over. We have inefficient nationalized medicine on the plate with 50 million entitlements for indigents who do not share the American work ethic, and $trillions of debt burden to give Acorn and other indigent socialist supporters pretend jobs that pay them with real taxpayer's money.
We are now preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to at least the old high where stocks were at the end of May seven months ago. The last two Januarys have been quite ugly although in 2009 the market surged more than 2% on the first January market day.
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