High dead cat bounce as socialists throw more money in the raging fire
Socialists give up on the idea of stimulating growth with a tax cut and spending cuts and instead throw another $Trillion to the Greek Communists who burned three bank workers alive last week. Throwing money into the raging world communist fire will only reward those tyrants who rise to lead the growing unemployed underclass and further burn down free enterprise to temporarily keep warm. When they run out of businesses to consume then they start throwing the creative and productive entrepreneurs in the Gulags.
World Markets:
Hewey, Dewey, and Louie were having a lovely time swimming in money yesterday. Throwing money at problems is however no way to contain a raging fire of incompetence and the growth of an unemployable underclass led by leftist radicals.
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less extreme and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
As we have been saying:
We had a high one-day dead-cat-bounce. Now we await a partial confirmation of recent market lows. Then we expect the market to advance to close to previous highs. That is because the raw indices have not given a head-and-shoulders sell signal. Only our volume-adjusted index gave the warning we have been talking about since the divergence between the two started last October. Beware now especially of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate.
Economic Calendar
Late last week
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March only because buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. Now people are beginning to walk away and default on all those banks that refused to negotiate. This double dip in housing could be limited primarily to overdeveloped areas in the South where seniors once liked to retire. Now many seniors are broke or cannot retire so those high end houses in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are down as much as 50% now and people (especially younger) people are walking away and renting for five years until their credit is clear again. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. View two years of the following:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
The Unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%. GE/MSNBC/Pravda and other national socialist propaganda machines did not like reporting that so perhaps 90% of Americans are not even aware of this news yet.
Consumer Credit showed Americans went $2 Billion more in debt last month reversing the good trend towards credit solvency. Now Americans are becoming more like the Greeks.
Economic Calendar this week
Yesterday
Jim Cramer lied again about China leading an economic recovery… claiming once again that trade is up. Here is the Baltic Dry Index blip from which he seea his world trade recovery. It is the third blip in a flat trend of worldwide socialist stagnation brought about by a free lunch for leftists and hefty income taxes on productive individuals. Socialism makes unemployment, beautiful trail hiking, and balmy beach combing an attractive life style for a growing younger underclass of socialists who have no work ethic.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009. It also decided to leave unchanged its program of buying government bonds and other assets to revive the economy. That program currently stands at £200 billion, or $296 billion.
Tuesday, May 11:
Wholesale Inventories
Wednesday, May 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 11, 2010
Volume dropped 38% relative to Thursday last week as the markets bounced upward yesterday. The average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market held and the next high can be higher than the last. We had a higher than expected dead cat bounce and now anticipate a buying opportunity as the lows are tested. Then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (when we want to sell everything) but fail to have a new high. That advance will happen probably by early summer. Then we expect a second downward market plunge. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night; Shanghai down -1.9%, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -1.1%, and Japan down -1.1%.
European markets are wildly volatile today in the range from -2% to +4%this morning about half way through their day. But they now have a sell signal and America has one that only our readers know about.
US pre-market futures are down 1% today but manipulated as usual.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
Even dead cats bounce when they thrown them off high buildings. But they don't usually land on their feet.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
As we have been saying:
It is time for a dead-cat-bounce and another confirmation of closing market lows (a buying opportunity). Then we expect the market to advance to close to its previous highs (a selling opportunity). That is because the raw indices have not given a head-and-shoulders sell signal like ours did. Only our volume-adjusted index gave the warning that the bull market topped (we have been talking about this since the divergence between the two started last October). Beware now especially of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China will likely default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Late last week
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. Now people are beginning to walk away and default on all those banks that refused to negotiate. People who are not underwater have recently been encourage by sales. The double dip in housing could be limited primarily to overdeveloped areas in the South where seniors once liked to retire. Now many seniors are broke or cannot retire so those high end houses in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are down as much as 50% and people (especially younger people) are walking away and renting for five years until their credit is clear again. That hyped houing market advance was actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Friday's reports:
The Unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%. GE/MSNBC/Pravda and all the other national socialist propaganda machines did not like reporting that fact so perhaps 90% of Americans are not even aware of this news yet. The socialists have taken over all the national broadcast companies.
Non-farm employment was adjusted down from the 230K previously reported to 162K just before this report so that was so that the lying socialists had 68K they could add to the latest report (68K= 230-162). Remember how last week we showed that adjustments that always occur in a favorable direction are either incompetence (they don't know how to count) or they are lying just to deceive the public (they are common lying leftists like Hitler's Goerbbels). The lying leftists reported non-farm employment improved to 290K from which we subtract the lying change of 68K they took from last month to inflate this months numbers. Those leaves 222K first reported for this month vs. 230K first reported last month. Therefore non-farm employment actually decreased (-8K) and the Obama leftists lied again and reported a whopping increase (+28K). Lying leftists can only get away with it until the market gets so distorted it corrects itself automatically as it did last week. The more the leftists lie the bigger the correction and the more their economic incompetence turns America into a banana republic dictatorship or Greek style communist street riot dictatorship.
Consumer Credit showed Americans went $2 Billion more in debt last month reversing the good trend towards credit solvency. Now Americans are becoming more like the Greeks.
Economic Calendar this week
Monday, May 10:
Bank of England rate
Tuesday, May 11:
Wholesale Inventories
Wednesday, May 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 10, 2010
Volume remained high as the markets dropped on Friday. The market manipulators held the old exchange closing lows but our volume adjusted prices show the old resistance levels continued in a substantial collapse. Therefore the average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market held and the next high can be higher than the last. We expect an immediate dead cat bounce and then a buying opportunity as the average investor waits to test the recent low again. Then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market wile rise close to the previous highs (when we sell everything) but fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance will happen probably in early summer. Then we expect a second downward market plunge.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night; Shanghai up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 2.5%, India up 3.4%, and Japan up 1.6%.
We expect the Chinese experiment to temporarily fail this year as the Russian experiment failed in the 1990's. Demand for oil, coal, metals, cement and other materials should then plummet. This will keep inflation low and allow Obama to dangerously increase American debt. Then when inflation starts rates will spike upward and America will have a socialist planned debt crisis that will require higher taxes. Then as the crisis ends the leftists will keep the higher taxes and redistribute the wealth to buy the votes of their permanent new voting underclass. They will try to follow their heroes like Chavez, Ortega, and Castro in making the constitutional changes to convert the USA into a banana republic socialist state. Then their permanent underclass majority that the wealth of the productive minority and squander all of America's accumulated wealth.
After severe losses last week where head-and-shoulders breakdowns occurred in some European markets (unlike American Markets except when corrected for trading volume), European markets are up today in the range from 5% to 8% this morning about half way through their day. But they now have a sell signal and America has one that only our readers know about.
US pre-market futures are up 3% to 4% today. Investors are in cash waiting for new opportunities to short the market. Since most think the American markets held resistance levels and did not yet give a sell signal we expect a dead cat bounce then a retest (buying opportunity) followed by a rising market and a failed test of the previous high (a selling opportunity. Both our first and second (volume adjusted) necklines did not hold so we are not done with this correction. The unadjusted neckline did hold so that is why we expect there will be a dead cat bounce.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
As we have been saying:
It is time for a dead-cat-bounce and another confirmation of closing market lows (a buying opportunity). Then we expect the market to advance to close to its previous highs (a selling opportunity). That is because the raw indices have not given a head-and-shoulders sell signal like ours did. Only our volume-adjusted index gave the warning that the bull market topped (we have been talking about this since the divergence between the two started last October). Beware now especially of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China will likely default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Late last week
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. Now people are beginning to walk away and default on all those banks that refused to negotiate. People who are not underwater have recently been encourage by sales. The double dip in housing could be limited primarily to overdeveloped areas in the South where seniors once liked to retire. Now many seniors are broke or cannot retire so those high end houses in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are down as much as 50% and people (especially younger people) are walking away and renting for five years until their credit is clear again. That hyped houing market advance was actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Friday's reports:
The Unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%. GE/MSNBC/Pravda and all the other national socialist propaganda machines did not like reporting that fact so perhaps 90% of Americans are not even aware of this news yet. The socialists have taken over all the national broadcast companies.
Non-farm employment was adjusted down from the 230K previously reported to 162K just before this report so that was so that the lying socialists had 68K they could add to the latest report (68K= 230-162). Remember how last week we showed that adjustments that always occur in a favorable direction are either incompetence (they don't know how to count) or they are lying just to deceive the public (they are common lying leftists like Hitler's Goerbbels). The lying leftists reported non-farm employment improved to 290K from which we subtract the lying change of 68K they took from last month to inflate this months numbers. Those leaves 222K first reported for this month vs. 230K first reported last month. Therefore non-farm employment actually decreased (-8K) and the Obama leftists lied again and reported a whopping increase (+28K). Lying leftists can only get away with it until the market gets so distorted it corrects itself automatically as it did last week. The more the leftists lie the bigger the correction and the more their economic incompetence turns America into a banana republic dictatorship or Greek style communist street riot dictatorship.
Consumer Credit showed Americans went $2 Billion more in debt last month reversing the good trend towards credit solvency. Now Americans are becoming more like the Greeks.
Economic Calendar this week
Monday, May 10:
Bank of England rate
Tuesday, May 11:
Wholesale Inventories
Wednesday, May 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 10, 2010
Volume remained high as the markets dropped on Friday. The market manipulators held the old exchange closing lows but our volume adjusted prices show the old resistance levels continued in a substantial collapse. Therefore the average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market held and the next high can be higher than the last. We expect an immediate dead cat bounce and then a buying opportunity as the average investor waits to test the recent low again. Then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market wile rise close to the previous highs (when we sell everything) but fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance will happen probably in early summer. Then we expect a second downward market plunge.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night; Shanghai up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 2.5%, India up 3.4%, and Japan up 1.6%.
We expect the Chinese experiment to temporarily fail this year as the Russian experiment failed in the 1990's. Demand for oil, coal, metals, cement and other materials should then plummet. This will keep inflation low and allow Obama to dangerously increase American debt. Then when inflation starts rates will spike upward and America will have a socialist planned debt crisis that will require higher taxes. Then as the crisis ends the leftists will keep the higher taxes and redistribute the wealth to buy the votes of their permanent new voting underclass. They will try to follow their heroes like Chavez, Ortega, and Castro in making the constitutional changes to convert the USA into a banana republic socialist state. Then their permanent underclass majority that the wealth of the productive minority and squander all of America's accumulated wealth.
After severe losses last week where head-and-shoulders breakdowns occurred in some European markets (unlike American Markets except when corrected for trading volume), European markets are up today in the range from 5% to 8% this morning about half way through their day. But they now have a sell signal and America has one that only our readers know about.
US pre-market futures are up 3% to 4% today. Investors are in cash waiting for new opportunities to short the market. Since most think the American markets held resistance levels and did not yet give a sell signal we expect a dead cat bounce then a retest (buying opportunity) followed by a rising market and a failed test of the previous high (a selling opportunity. Both our first and second (volume adjusted) necklines did not hold so we are not done with this correction. The unadjusted neckline did hold so that is why we expect there will be a dead cat bounce.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Friday, May 7, 2010
Is the Obama administration continually lying with their economic statistics or are they just incompetent or stupid?
Is the Obama administration continually lying with their economic statistics or are they just incompetent or stupid?
Suppose a company you invested in reported earnings were up every quarter by 10%. But then at the end of the year you noticed that since last year it was only up 10%? Wouldn't you be suspicious as to why it wasn't up at least 40% for the year? How come it did not go up 10% compounded four times or 46.41%? Would you look more carefully at their data?
Oh! Now you notice that in the last month of each quarter they restated (corrected) the earnings. They quietly announce they had no increase last quarter but they loudly predicted earnings would be higher by at least 10% at the end of the present quarter. Your stock doesn't go down it goes up again because the 10% expected increase is good news again.
But you look and see that they do the same thing over and over again. They give four optimistic forecasts and four excellent earnings increases each year but nothing is really getting any better. Wouldn't you realize then that the management was either deceiving investors or was incompetent? It has to be one or the other because errors occur randomly not almost always in one convenient direction. That is the game Obama's people are playing with the US economic statistics over and over again. The Soviet Union always lied that way until it collapsed. And GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Jim Cramer are also either stupid or just going along with the economic and corporate lies. That is why we always like to look at what the revisions do to the announced data and report that as well.
The oil leak could be an economic disaster for the gulf coast and up the Mississippi River as well because boats entering the Mississippi will need to be cleaned first.
The European debt crisis is not an inflationary crisis because Greece and Portugal are anchored to the Euro. It is a deflationary or depression type crisis that is why gold and commodities have been generally falling. But yesterday the short 8% plunge in the US stock markets unleashed gold buying and the buying extended a bit into silver as well and other precious metals. That was the result of fear that all currencies could be in danger
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
As we have been saying:
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China could eventually default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010. That is not good.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
ADP employment report showed a 32,000 increase in private sector jobs during April. This is very good but statistically meaningless news even if it is true and not revised down later. Of course about 500,000 new people look for jobs each month and there is 10% unemployment. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for April registered 49.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 49.8 percent registered in March.
ISM non-manufacturing Index: Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 55.4 percent in April, the same percentage as registered in March, and indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 60.3 percent, reflecting growth for the fifth consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased 4.1 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.5 percent.” That seems to contract the favorable ADP employment report.
Yesterday:
Unemployment claims: On the surface it looks like claims declined from 551K to 444K but then we notice they actually revised the last numbers up 3K from 448K. That revision of course must lower the new numbers because otherwise the total number unemployed would be in error. So instead of the reported 7K decline in first claims it is a 4K decline or no statistically significant change but just data scatter. Also Congress will not extend unemployment payments beyond the current record 99 weeks so the unemployed will have a lot less money starting in June. The stimulation package is now running out. Credits for fist home buyers just ended too. Soon we will see the withdrawal effects of the removal of stimulants.
Productivity: Again they downwardly revised last months annualized productivity increase from 6.9% to 6.3% so they could report a productivity increase of 3.6% instead of 3%. That makes a growth slowdown appear less severe. But the media did not even mention 55% slowdown in growth they just hyped that it was still growth.
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 7, 2010
Small caps, the latest touted sector was down over 30% yesterday after the smoke cleared. Volume surged another 56% higher as the markets plummeted yesterday. The market manipulators were in complete confusion. Last week Jim Cramer was scoffing at prudent investors who were going into cash and shorting the market at the top. He said stay fully invested. Then earlier this week Jim Cramer looked like a deer staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck. Yet he said stay put and be spectators as the truck approached but don't buy anything. Then yesterday the truck hit his investors and one of his fans called and said his portfolio took a 10% hit. Jim Cramer then said wait until the market falls further and then buy accidentally high dividend stocks. One caller challenged him and said won't Obama be taxing dividends at 39% net year. Won't that clobber dividend stocks?
The frightened market manipulators are now beginning to spin the news negative. The volume-adjusted NYSE clearly broke the two head-and-shoulder necklines. The real institutional market manipulators did however hold the raw Feb 2, 2010 index necklines to make investors complacent as we predicted. You can check and see that most stocks were not allowed to drop below their lows for this year. There were some however they did not catch and they briefly lost almost 100% before recovering with staggering losses. The volume adjusted Head-and-shoulder sell signal necklines did not hold. We were correct in the assumption that the market manipulators would hold the raw price necklines to make investors complacent.
Since our volume-adjusted H-A-S necklines broke down it is likely we have seen the stock market highs for this year. The smart investors who were 50% short and 50% in cash and holding probably had their short price targets hit and are now 100% cash. It is too risky to start shorting now because the market is very volatile and the manipulators were successful in preserving the raw H-A-S necklines so most investors think the bull market held and probably are about to do bargain hunting. After a few days or weeks of foolish investor bargain hunting as Jim Cramer suggested it is possible the markets could approach the recent highs. Then the shrewd investors will go short again and that time when the market plunges the market manipulators will join in and all the lows will break down and even Jim Cramer may say we are in a bear market though his GE/MSNBC/Pravda listeners will have once again lost their shirts. But then most of them must like Obama because they listen to GE/MSNBC/Pravda nonsense.
The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down again last night; Shanghai down -1.9%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, India down -1.3%, S. Korea down -2.2%, and Japan down -3.1%. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly just as Russia's first bull market failed more than 10 years ago. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world especially China. We expect the Chinese experiment to fail this year as the Russian experiment failed in the 1990's. Demand for oil, coal, metals, cement and other materials will then plummet.
After losses yesterday, European markets are down today in the range from -0.1% to -1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. Investors are in cash waiting for new opportunities to short the market. The second (volume adjusted) neckline did not hold so we are not done with this correction. The unadjusted neckline did hold so we expect there will be a dead cat bounce of a week or more.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported:
That the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
That the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
Global government debt issues are coming home to roost!
Retail Sales in April – Not So Hot!
Suppose a company you invested in reported earnings were up every quarter by 10%. But then at the end of the year you noticed that since last year it was only up 10%? Wouldn't you be suspicious as to why it wasn't up at least 40% for the year? How come it did not go up 10% compounded four times or 46.41%? Would you look more carefully at their data?
Oh! Now you notice that in the last month of each quarter they restated (corrected) the earnings. They quietly announce they had no increase last quarter but they loudly predicted earnings would be higher by at least 10% at the end of the present quarter. Your stock doesn't go down it goes up again because the 10% expected increase is good news again.
But you look and see that they do the same thing over and over again. They give four optimistic forecasts and four excellent earnings increases each year but nothing is really getting any better. Wouldn't you realize then that the management was either deceiving investors or was incompetent? It has to be one or the other because errors occur randomly not almost always in one convenient direction. That is the game Obama's people are playing with the US economic statistics over and over again. The Soviet Union always lied that way until it collapsed. And GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Jim Cramer are also either stupid or just going along with the economic and corporate lies. That is why we always like to look at what the revisions do to the announced data and report that as well.
The oil leak could be an economic disaster for the gulf coast and up the Mississippi River as well because boats entering the Mississippi will need to be cleaned first.
The European debt crisis is not an inflationary crisis because Greece and Portugal are anchored to the Euro. It is a deflationary or depression type crisis that is why gold and commodities have been generally falling. But yesterday the short 8% plunge in the US stock markets unleashed gold buying and the buying extended a bit into silver as well and other precious metals. That was the result of fear that all currencies could be in danger
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
As we have been saying:
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China could eventually default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010. That is not good.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
ADP employment report showed a 32,000 increase in private sector jobs during April. This is very good but statistically meaningless news even if it is true and not revised down later. Of course about 500,000 new people look for jobs each month and there is 10% unemployment. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for April registered 49.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 49.8 percent registered in March.
ISM non-manufacturing Index: Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 55.4 percent in April, the same percentage as registered in March, and indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 60.3 percent, reflecting growth for the fifth consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased 4.1 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.5 percent.” That seems to contract the favorable ADP employment report.
Yesterday:
Unemployment claims: On the surface it looks like claims declined from 551K to 444K but then we notice they actually revised the last numbers up 3K from 448K. That revision of course must lower the new numbers because otherwise the total number unemployed would be in error. So instead of the reported 7K decline in first claims it is a 4K decline or no statistically significant change but just data scatter. Also Congress will not extend unemployment payments beyond the current record 99 weeks so the unemployed will have a lot less money starting in June. The stimulation package is now running out. Credits for fist home buyers just ended too. Soon we will see the withdrawal effects of the removal of stimulants.
Productivity: Again they downwardly revised last months annualized productivity increase from 6.9% to 6.3% so they could report a productivity increase of 3.6% instead of 3%. That makes a growth slowdown appear less severe. But the media did not even mention 55% slowdown in growth they just hyped that it was still growth.
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 7, 2010
Small caps, the latest touted sector was down over 30% yesterday after the smoke cleared. Volume surged another 56% higher as the markets plummeted yesterday. The market manipulators were in complete confusion. Last week Jim Cramer was scoffing at prudent investors who were going into cash and shorting the market at the top. He said stay fully invested. Then earlier this week Jim Cramer looked like a deer staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck. Yet he said stay put and be spectators as the truck approached but don't buy anything. Then yesterday the truck hit his investors and one of his fans called and said his portfolio took a 10% hit. Jim Cramer then said wait until the market falls further and then buy accidentally high dividend stocks. One caller challenged him and said won't Obama be taxing dividends at 39% net year. Won't that clobber dividend stocks?
The frightened market manipulators are now beginning to spin the news negative. The volume-adjusted NYSE clearly broke the two head-and-shoulder necklines. The real institutional market manipulators did however hold the raw Feb 2, 2010 index necklines to make investors complacent as we predicted. You can check and see that most stocks were not allowed to drop below their lows for this year. There were some however they did not catch and they briefly lost almost 100% before recovering with staggering losses. The volume adjusted Head-and-shoulder sell signal necklines did not hold. We were correct in the assumption that the market manipulators would hold the raw price necklines to make investors complacent.
Since our volume-adjusted H-A-S necklines broke down it is likely we have seen the stock market highs for this year. The smart investors who were 50% short and 50% in cash and holding probably had their short price targets hit and are now 100% cash. It is too risky to start shorting now because the market is very volatile and the manipulators were successful in preserving the raw H-A-S necklines so most investors think the bull market held and probably are about to do bargain hunting. After a few days or weeks of foolish investor bargain hunting as Jim Cramer suggested it is possible the markets could approach the recent highs. Then the shrewd investors will go short again and that time when the market plunges the market manipulators will join in and all the lows will break down and even Jim Cramer may say we are in a bear market though his GE/MSNBC/Pravda listeners will have once again lost their shirts. But then most of them must like Obama because they listen to GE/MSNBC/Pravda nonsense.
The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down again last night; Shanghai down -1.9%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, India down -1.3%, S. Korea down -2.2%, and Japan down -3.1%. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly just as Russia's first bull market failed more than 10 years ago. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world especially China. We expect the Chinese experiment to fail this year as the Russian experiment failed in the 1990's. Demand for oil, coal, metals, cement and other materials will then plummet.
After losses yesterday, European markets are down today in the range from -0.1% to -1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. Investors are in cash waiting for new opportunities to short the market. The second (volume adjusted) neckline did not hold so we are not done with this correction. The unadjusted neckline did hold so we expect there will be a dead cat bounce of a week or more.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported:
That the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
That the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
Global government debt issues are coming home to roost!
Retail Sales in April – Not So Hot!
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Greek socialism failed and now they want international socialism i.e. communism.
Greek socialism failed and now they want international socialism i.e. communism.
Socialism in Greece has brought the normal socialist economic equality called, "universal poverty." This is the same Greece that was once a world learning center and had the first city to experiment with democracy. But they have become socialist parasites selling bonds to the rest of the world and refusing to live within their means. They apparently want international socialism so they can suck the life out of the stronger European nations and eventually out of America. But with Obama socialists and his 10$trillion deficit to help socialists who have no work ethic, there soon will be no life in the USA to suck out. Obama the socialist will bankrupt America.
Where has the stimulus package gone? Apparently it went down Obama's socialist toilet bowl. Obama is no intellectual. His mind is a socialist toilet bowl like every street thug who thinks he is owed something from society. Our money goes to people whose life style does not include working for a living or even learning foreign languages such as English.
According to Obama, everyone has a right to a house, a car, a wide screen plasma TV, and a welfare check. That is just their life style and we have to accept their socialist life style and give them entitlements that increase every year.
Obama thinks some people have stupid out-dated life styles. Life styles socialists think are out-dated include engaging in difficult educational studies, those that include a work ethic, and those that put children ahead of selfishness, drugs, and self-gratification. If street socialists put their children first then we would have all self-sufficient adults who could speak our language.
Any person who demanded citizenship in Spain or Mexico while refusing to speak Spanish would be seriously insulting Mexicans and Spaniards. Yet democrat-socialist think it is ok to have American citizenship without knowing our language. To socialists around the world it is delightful that so many Americans are still willing to be the slaves of socialism around the world.
As we have been saying:
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China could eventually default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Yesterday:
ADP employment report showed a 32,000 increase in private sector jobs during April. This is very good but statistically meaningless news even if it is true and not revised down later. Of course about 500,000 new people look for jobs each month and there is 10% unemployment. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for April registered 49.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 49.8 percent registered in March.
ISM non-manufacturing Index: Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 55.4 percent in April, the same percentage as registered in March, and indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 60.3 percent, reflecting growth for the fifth consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased 4.1 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.5 percent.” That seems to contract the favorable ADP employment report.
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 6, 2010
Volume surged another 4% higher as the markets dropped more yesterday. The market manipulators still spin the economic news but are getting a little frightened now. The volume-adjusted NYSE is getting close to breaking the first head-and-shoulder neckline. Note that the neckline is the next resistance point. The second volume-adjusted neckline is a little lower than the first. We are now looking to see if the volume adjusted necklines will hold. It can be assumed that the market manipulators will hold the raw index necklines to make investors complacent. If our volume-adjusted neckline breaks down then the highs for this year 2010 may already have been established. The smart investors would be about 50% short and 50% in cash and holding. It is too risky to start shorting now. A few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health and present new buy opportunities later this year. Only time will tell. The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down much lower last night; Shanghai down 4.1%, Hong Kong down -1%, India down -0.6%, S. Korea down -2%, Taiwan down -1.5%, and Japan down -3.3%. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world.
After losses yesterday, European markets are flat today in the range from -0.3% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. They are attempting now to calm the US markets but that will make the losses worse later. While smart investors are in cash or short positions the market is extremely volatile so inexperienced investors should remain at a distance. If the second (volume adjusted) neckline holds then we are about 50% done with this correction. We do not expect that the adjusted neckline will hold but if the unadjusted headlines hold there likely will be a dead cat bounce of a week or more.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported:
That the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
That the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
Global government debt issues are coming home to roost!
Socialism in Greece has brought the normal socialist economic equality called, "universal poverty." This is the same Greece that was once a world learning center and had the first city to experiment with democracy. But they have become socialist parasites selling bonds to the rest of the world and refusing to live within their means. They apparently want international socialism so they can suck the life out of the stronger European nations and eventually out of America. But with Obama socialists and his 10$trillion deficit to help socialists who have no work ethic, there soon will be no life in the USA to suck out. Obama the socialist will bankrupt America.
Where has the stimulus package gone? Apparently it went down Obama's socialist toilet bowl. Obama is no intellectual. His mind is a socialist toilet bowl like every street thug who thinks he is owed something from society. Our money goes to people whose life style does not include working for a living or even learning foreign languages such as English.
According to Obama, everyone has a right to a house, a car, a wide screen plasma TV, and a welfare check. That is just their life style and we have to accept their socialist life style and give them entitlements that increase every year.
Obama thinks some people have stupid out-dated life styles. Life styles socialists think are out-dated include engaging in difficult educational studies, those that include a work ethic, and those that put children ahead of selfishness, drugs, and self-gratification. If street socialists put their children first then we would have all self-sufficient adults who could speak our language.
Any person who demanded citizenship in Spain or Mexico while refusing to speak Spanish would be seriously insulting Mexicans and Spaniards. Yet democrat-socialist think it is ok to have American citizenship without knowing our language. To socialists around the world it is delightful that so many Americans are still willing to be the slaves of socialism around the world.
As we have been saying:
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks and bonds. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
Also there are many emerging nations in far worse financial trouble than Greece that are still selling low yield bonds to Americans. When the Russian bubble broke in the 90's and they defaulted, it brought down many hedge funds. So beware because China could eventually default. In fact, considering that they are communist we can expect them to default the moment they have extracted what they want from us.
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Yesterday:
ADP employment report showed a 32,000 increase in private sector jobs during April. This is very good but statistically meaningless news even if it is true and not revised down later. Of course about 500,000 new people look for jobs each month and there is 10% unemployment. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for April registered 49.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 49.8 percent registered in March.
ISM non-manufacturing Index: Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 55.4 percent in April, the same percentage as registered in March, and indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 60.3 percent, reflecting growth for the fifth consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased 4.1 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.5 percent.” That seems to contract the favorable ADP employment report.
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 6, 2010
Volume surged another 4% higher as the markets dropped more yesterday. The market manipulators still spin the economic news but are getting a little frightened now. The volume-adjusted NYSE is getting close to breaking the first head-and-shoulder neckline. Note that the neckline is the next resistance point. The second volume-adjusted neckline is a little lower than the first. We are now looking to see if the volume adjusted necklines will hold. It can be assumed that the market manipulators will hold the raw index necklines to make investors complacent. If our volume-adjusted neckline breaks down then the highs for this year 2010 may already have been established. The smart investors would be about 50% short and 50% in cash and holding. It is too risky to start shorting now. A few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health and present new buy opportunities later this year. Only time will tell. The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down much lower last night; Shanghai down 4.1%, Hong Kong down -1%, India down -0.6%, S. Korea down -2%, Taiwan down -1.5%, and Japan down -3.3%. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world.
After losses yesterday, European markets are flat today in the range from -0.3% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. They are attempting now to calm the US markets but that will make the losses worse later. While smart investors are in cash or short positions the market is extremely volatile so inexperienced investors should remain at a distance. If the second (volume adjusted) neckline holds then we are about 50% done with this correction. We do not expect that the adjusted neckline will hold but if the unadjusted headlines hold there likely will be a dead cat bounce of a week or more.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported:
That the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
That the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
Global government debt issues are coming home to roost!
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
God recently has been blessing America with the best of friends and the dumbest of enemies.
God recently has been blessing America with the best of friends and the dumbest of enemies.
The Moslem terrorists are dumber than dirt. The Moslems once had competitive centers of learning called universities. Now they have only centers of ignorance and hate called madrassas.
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
If that sounds high to you consider that about one in three new American corporations survive for five years. Americans have bought tons of stocks in mom and pop Chinese corporations that are now ready to collapse as credit tightens, mom and pop cash out, and stung investors flee future dilution of their bloated issues of stock. We can expect many Chinese firms are essentially Ponzi schemes that have continually sold capital stock just to stay afloat. This contagion is spreading around the socialist world.
When Obama is booted out of office it will be difficult for Americans to take back their country. There could be riots like they have every day in Greece where the deadbeats in government, the unions, and on welfare destroy cities and refuse to accept austerity. The weak politicians continually fail to reduce Greek government expenditures to restore financial health. That is why the weak and ignorant liberal GOP politicians such as McCain must also be thrown out of office in America. The Obama $10Trillion disease will either be paid with 50% tax rates on 47% of Americans and handouts to 40+% of Americans or Atlas could shrug and America will have to stop giving handouts and benefits to people who do nothing.
Obama says unemployment is only 9.7%. How can that be when 40% of Americans today pay no taxes and get money back from the government, only 47% of Americans pay all the taxes, and only 13% work tax free the way it was 100 years ago?
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Yesterday:
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 5, 2010
Volume surged 35% as the NYSE dropped more than 2.7% yesterday. Once again the market manipulators will spin the economic news to draw suckers in at over inflated prices. Once again the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues the decline since last fall. Note that the neckline is the next resistance point. We are now looking to see if the volume adjusted neckline will hold. It can be assumed that the market manipulators will hold the raw index necklines. If our volume-adjusted neckline breaks down then the highs for this year 2010 may already have been established. The smart investors would be about 50% short and 50% in cash and holding. It is now too risky to start shorting. A few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health and present buying opportunities later this year. Only time will tell. The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down again last night; Shanghai up 0.8%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, India down -0.3%, S. Korea down -0.2%, Taiwan down -3%, and Japan closed. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world.
After -3% to -5% losses yesterday, European markets are down slightly today in the range from +0.1% to -0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. They are attempting now to calm the US markets but that will make the losses worse later.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
Reported Tuesday that the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
The Moslem terrorists are dumber than dirt. The Moslems once had competitive centers of learning called universities. Now they have only centers of ignorance and hate called madrassas.
Beware now of emerging countries and their stocks. Chinese corporations are beginning to default en-masse on foreigners. The communists can be expected to sting American investors in a professional manner that will cause investment losses two to three times more than their indices indicate. In other words GE/MSNBC/Pravda will once again lie to investors and the pain investors feel will be at least twice what the media reports. Out of the huge investment losses a Chinese tier stock structure will likely evolve with the main indices likely to survive as the Dow's of China while up to 30% of the Chinese firms (mostly over capitalized) can be expected to fail.
If that sounds high to you consider that about one in three new American corporations survive for five years. Americans have bought tons of stocks in mom and pop Chinese corporations that are now ready to collapse as credit tightens, mom and pop cash out, and stung investors flee future dilution of their bloated issues of stock. We can expect many Chinese firms are essentially Ponzi schemes that have continually sold capital stock just to stay afloat. This contagion is spreading around the socialist world.
When Obama is booted out of office it will be difficult for Americans to take back their country. There could be riots like they have every day in Greece where the deadbeats in government, the unions, and on welfare destroy cities and refuse to accept austerity. The weak politicians continually fail to reduce Greek government expenditures to restore financial health. That is why the weak and ignorant liberal GOP politicians such as McCain must also be thrown out of office in America. The Obama $10Trillion disease will either be paid with 50% tax rates on 47% of Americans and handouts to 40+% of Americans or Atlas could shrug and America will have to stop giving handouts and benefits to people who do nothing.
Obama says unemployment is only 9.7%. How can that be when 40% of Americans today pay no taxes and get money back from the government, only 47% of Americans pay all the taxes, and only 13% work tax free the way it was 100 years ago?
Economic Calendar
Earlier this week
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent. With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Yesterday:
Auto Sales were up 20% from a year ago when they were in bankruptcy but down 9% from March 2010.
Factory Orders: Total factory orders, that is with non-durables and durables combined, rose 1.3 percent, the same as for February. This is truly good and not just hype.
Housing stocks have been hyped to record highs. Pending sales of previously owned homes hit a hyped five-month high in March as buyers rushed to sign contracts before a tax credit expired. That five-month hyped high is actually a double dip. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_existinghms.htm
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 5, 2010
Volume surged 35% as the NYSE dropped more than 2.7% yesterday. Once again the market manipulators will spin the economic news to draw suckers in at over inflated prices. Once again the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues the decline since last fall. Note that the neckline is the next resistance point. We are now looking to see if the volume adjusted neckline will hold. It can be assumed that the market manipulators will hold the raw index necklines. If our volume-adjusted neckline breaks down then the highs for this year 2010 may already have been established. The smart investors would be about 50% short and 50% in cash and holding. It is now too risky to start shorting. A few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health and present buying opportunities later this year. Only time will tell. The coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down again last night; Shanghai up 0.8%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, India down -0.3%, S. Korea down -0.2%, Taiwan down -3%, and Japan closed. Communist China is about to see a surge in defaults and bankruptcies that will cost foreign investors dearly. We are avoiding all the emerging markets of the world.
After -3% to -5% losses yesterday, European markets are down slightly today in the range from +0.1% to -0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are too manipulated to be useful today. They are attempting now to calm the US markets but that will make the losses worse later.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
Reported Tuesday that the rising U.S. market (previous weeks) was diverging with the collapsing global markets.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
World credit tightening has begun
World credit tightening has begun
China tightened its monetary policy again over the weekend for the third time this year, raising the amount of cash reserves banks in China must hold. Australia’s market dropped sharply on the news that taxes on mines would go up 40% to reduce their deficit. Obama in his term is running a $10 trillion deficit or at a rate of three times what Bush ran in two terms. The Obama tax increases will be very large each year beginning in 2011 and it will be entirely on productive Americas with illegal immigrants paying nothing, getting free services and sending their cash back home out of America. Yesterday Hispanics were reported by GE/MSNBC/Pravda as saying they would register democrat-socialist because intelligent Americans in the other parties do not support illegal immigration. The leftist democrat socialists can buy the votes of illegal aliens just by allowing them to get American driver’s licenses so they can use them as American IDs and get fraudulent birth certificates and fraudulent social security numbers. Obama still has not released a photocopy of his alleged American Birth certificate.
Economic Calendar
Monday, May 3:
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent.
With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Tuesday, May 4:
Auto Sales
Factory Orders
Pending Home sales
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 4, 2010
Once again the market manipulators will spin the economic news to draw suckers in at over inflated prices. Car sales are still a disaster but will be spun relative to last year when the car industry was in bankruptcy.
The market was up yesterday but volume collapsed 19% and once again the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues it’s declining since last fall. If the high has now been set for last month's advance then the volume adjusted NYSE has now completed a head and second shoulder sell signal. That would be a sign of exhaustion of buyers as happened in late 2007 and accelerated into the sharp decline at the end of 2008. However, a few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health later this year. Only time will tell. Still the coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night; Shanghai down -1.2%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -1.4%, S. Korea down -0.3%, and Japan up 1.2% after being closed for the low volume advance yesterday .
European markets are down sharply today in the range from -1% to -1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.6% today after a sharp rise on low trading volume yesterday.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
China tightened its monetary policy again over the weekend for the third time this year, raising the amount of cash reserves banks in China must hold. Australia’s market dropped sharply on the news that taxes on mines would go up 40% to reduce their deficit. Obama in his term is running a $10 trillion deficit or at a rate of three times what Bush ran in two terms. The Obama tax increases will be very large each year beginning in 2011 and it will be entirely on productive Americas with illegal immigrants paying nothing, getting free services and sending their cash back home out of America. Yesterday Hispanics were reported by GE/MSNBC/Pravda as saying they would register democrat-socialist because intelligent Americans in the other parties do not support illegal immigration. The leftist democrat socialists can buy the votes of illegal aliens just by allowing them to get American driver’s licenses so they can use them as American IDs and get fraudulent birth certificates and fraudulent social security numbers. Obama still has not released a photocopy of his alleged American Birth certificate.
Economic Calendar
Monday, May 3:
Consumer Income & Spending: Personal income in March rose 0.3 percent, but consumer spending rose by 0.6 percent.
With the unemployment rate, stubbornly at 9.7 percent, forecasters expect unemployment to remain near 10 percent through at least the remainder of this year. That means that if the recovery is to continue, it will have to be largely based on consumption, not new employment. But if consumer spending continues to increase faster than personal income that would suggest that people are once again going into debt. Indeed, the personal saving rate dropped from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, hitting its lowest rate since September 2008. Economists therefore worry that the gains in consumer spending and therefore a recovery are not sustainable while unemployment remains high.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.4 in April, from 59.6 in March. With this index 50 is economic stagnation, less than 50 is economic contraction and greater than 50 is expansion in manufacturing. While the index indicated growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month we are still well below where we were in 2007.
Construction Spending: Construction Spending increased by 0.2% to $847.3 billion during March after falling by 2.1% in February, revised downward from a previously estimated decrease of 1.3%. Without that after-the-fact 0.9% downward revision the current figure would be down 0.7% not up 0.2%. Note that the revision is four times bigger than the reported change and makes the reported number completely statistically meaningless. Revising figures downward after they are reported is one way politicians manipulate data to make the next month look better without the American public knowing it was political manipulation. Year over year, construction spending has declined by 12.3% from the March 2009 estimate. The housing peak was in 2006.
Tuesday, May 4:
Auto Sales
Factory Orders
Pending Home sales
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 4, 2010
Once again the market manipulators will spin the economic news to draw suckers in at over inflated prices. Car sales are still a disaster but will be spun relative to last year when the car industry was in bankruptcy.
The market was up yesterday but volume collapsed 19% and once again the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues it’s declining since last fall. If the high has now been set for last month's advance then the volume adjusted NYSE has now completed a head and second shoulder sell signal. That would be a sign of exhaustion of buyers as happened in late 2007 and accelerated into the sharp decline at the end of 2008. However, a few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health later this year. Only time will tell. Still the coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night; Shanghai down -1.2%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -1.4%, S. Korea down -0.3%, and Japan up 1.2% after being closed for the low volume advance yesterday .
European markets are down sharply today in the range from -1% to -1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.6% today after a sharp rise on low trading volume yesterday.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Obama threatens to sue Arizona for requiring citizenship identification on the border with Mexico.
Obama threatens to sue Arizona for requiring citizenship identification on the border with Mexico.
If you cross the North Korean border illegally you get 12 years hard labor.
If you cross the Iranian border illegally you are detained indefinitely.
If you cross the afghan border illegally, you get shot.
If you cross the Saudi Arabian border illegally you will be jailed and tortured.
If you cross the Chinese border illegally you may never be heard from again.
If you cross the Venezuelan border illegally you will be branded a spy and ultimately disappear.
If you cross the Cuban border illegally you will be thrown into a political prison.
How do they know to stop you? You correctly fit their American capitalist pig profile, so don't try it.
But if you cross the US border illegally you may qualify for a government job, a drivers license, social security card, welfare, food stamps, credit cards, subsidized rent or a loan to buy a house, free education, free health care, a lobbyist in Washington and in many instances you can vote, and you have the opportunity to bring your sick and aging parents and grandparents!
If you are born here, you get to pay for it all.
But if Arizona tries to send an illegal alien back to Mexico Obama says they can't because they fit the profile of an illegal alien with no ID… and Obama says that is discrimination. How very stupid and suicidal for American liberty Obama's logic is. As the uneducated unemployable segment of Obama's permanent socialist underclass grows they eventually gain the majority and can change the constitution to give themselves dictatorial power as Nazis, communists, Hussein… banana republic socialist dictators everywhere did and now Chavez and Ortega are doing it. That is why the "Tea Party" thinks Obama is trying to make America into another banana republic by his inactions.
Economic Calendar
GE/MSNBC/Pravda's corrupt media very seriously distorted the Friday, April 30 reports. But the market declined sharply anyway.
GDP was reported Friday as showing the recovery booming but the data says it is fading. While it was up a good 3.2% this past quarter… it was expanding at a better 5.6% rate in the fourth quarter of 2009. That looks like possibly a double dip recession underway.
Mich. Consumer Sentiment dropped to 72.2% from 73.6% last month. Most news media reported last month's sentiment falsely (at 71% not 72.2%) to make this news look good. They also distorted the confidence index last week saying it was a record high. But you can see that is without any statistical support whatsoever.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
International trade as indicated by the Baltic Dry index has shown stagnation ever since GE/MSNBC/Pravda's Jim Cramer reported that the last upward blip was a sign of a "V" shaped recovery. Again it looks like the world trade is scraping along the bottom.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Wall Street Corruption distorts the markets so that the managers can get big bonuses at the expense of their clients. When they make a profit they get a phenomenal bonus. When they lose a fortune they get a phenomenal golden parachute. The managers don’t hire accounting firms or rating agencies that don’t help them falsify public information to deceive investors and clients unless the accounting and financial rating firms happen to have stupid, blind, deaf, and dumb "experts" that don't ask embarrassing questions. All the false reporting of corrupt Wall Street has the market seriously overpriced now. So to make money we can expect them to short clients and investors soon just as Goldman did with such delight and efficiency. They think they are so smart and the government's SEC and we are so stupid. Wall Street firms expect this Obama attack will end as soon as they Wall Street fills their quota of political contributions. As America elects more leftists the stench of political and economic corruption grows worse and the danger of losing all our American freedoms becomes ever more real.
Monday, May 3:
Consumer Income & Spending.
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend
Tuesday, May 4:
Auto Sales
Factory Orders
Pending Home sales
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 3, 2010
The market was down sharply on Friday on flat volume indicating the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues declining since last fall. If the high has now been set for this last month's advance then the volume adjusted NYSE has now completed a head and second shoulder sell signal. That would be a sign of exhaustion of buyers as happened in late 2007 and accelerated into the sharp decline at the end of 2008. However, a few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health later this year. Only time will tell. Still the coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -1%, S. Korea down -1.2%, and Japan closed.
European markets are down in the range from -0.2% to -1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures appear highly manipulated and are therefore meaningless/disinformation just like the manipulated trade volumes (one exception, NYSE) reported in spite of computerization which could provide much more accurate information than in the past. We will no longer report data that is so easy to corrupt. It is even worse than the EPA's global warming data, which if believable would have the world in a state of panic.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
If you cross the North Korean border illegally you get 12 years hard labor.
If you cross the Iranian border illegally you are detained indefinitely.
If you cross the afghan border illegally, you get shot.
If you cross the Saudi Arabian border illegally you will be jailed and tortured.
If you cross the Chinese border illegally you may never be heard from again.
If you cross the Venezuelan border illegally you will be branded a spy and ultimately disappear.
If you cross the Cuban border illegally you will be thrown into a political prison.
How do they know to stop you? You correctly fit their American capitalist pig profile, so don't try it.
But if you cross the US border illegally you may qualify for a government job, a drivers license, social security card, welfare, food stamps, credit cards, subsidized rent or a loan to buy a house, free education, free health care, a lobbyist in Washington and in many instances you can vote, and you have the opportunity to bring your sick and aging parents and grandparents!
If you are born here, you get to pay for it all.
But if Arizona tries to send an illegal alien back to Mexico Obama says they can't because they fit the profile of an illegal alien with no ID… and Obama says that is discrimination. How very stupid and suicidal for American liberty Obama's logic is. As the uneducated unemployable segment of Obama's permanent socialist underclass grows they eventually gain the majority and can change the constitution to give themselves dictatorial power as Nazis, communists, Hussein… banana republic socialist dictators everywhere did and now Chavez and Ortega are doing it. That is why the "Tea Party" thinks Obama is trying to make America into another banana republic by his inactions.
Economic Calendar
GE/MSNBC/Pravda's corrupt media very seriously distorted the Friday, April 30 reports. But the market declined sharply anyway.
GDP was reported Friday as showing the recovery booming but the data says it is fading. While it was up a good 3.2% this past quarter… it was expanding at a better 5.6% rate in the fourth quarter of 2009. That looks like possibly a double dip recession underway.
Mich. Consumer Sentiment dropped to 72.2% from 73.6% last month. Most news media reported last month's sentiment falsely (at 71% not 72.2%) to make this news look good. They also distorted the confidence index last week saying it was a record high. But you can see that is without any statistical support whatsoever.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
International trade as indicated by the Baltic Dry index has shown stagnation ever since GE/MSNBC/Pravda's Jim Cramer reported that the last upward blip was a sign of a "V" shaped recovery. Again it looks like the world trade is scraping along the bottom.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Wall Street Corruption distorts the markets so that the managers can get big bonuses at the expense of their clients. When they make a profit they get a phenomenal bonus. When they lose a fortune they get a phenomenal golden parachute. The managers don’t hire accounting firms or rating agencies that don’t help them falsify public information to deceive investors and clients unless the accounting and financial rating firms happen to have stupid, blind, deaf, and dumb "experts" that don't ask embarrassing questions. All the false reporting of corrupt Wall Street has the market seriously overpriced now. So to make money we can expect them to short clients and investors soon just as Goldman did with such delight and efficiency. They think they are so smart and the government's SEC and we are so stupid. Wall Street firms expect this Obama attack will end as soon as they Wall Street fills their quota of political contributions. As America elects more leftists the stench of political and economic corruption grows worse and the danger of losing all our American freedoms becomes ever more real.
Monday, May 3:
Consumer Income & Spending.
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend
Tuesday, May 4:
Auto Sales
Factory Orders
Pending Home sales
Wednesday, May 5:
ADP Jobs Report
ISM non-manufacturing Index
Thursday, May 6:
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Friday, May 6:
Employment Report
Unemployment rate,
Consumer Credit
Market Outlook May 3, 2010
The market was down sharply on Friday on flat volume indicating the volume-adjusted NYSE top continues declining since last fall. If the high has now been set for this last month's advance then the volume adjusted NYSE has now completed a head and second shoulder sell signal. That would be a sign of exhaustion of buyers as happened in late 2007 and accelerated into the sharp decline at the end of 2008. However, a few weeks of exhaustion of buyers could re-establish market health later this year. Only time will tell. Still the coming correction will likely be the most severe correction of the past 12 months.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -1%, S. Korea down -1.2%, and Japan closed.
European markets are down in the range from -0.2% to -1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures appear highly manipulated and are therefore meaningless/disinformation just like the manipulated trade volumes (one exception, NYSE) reported in spite of computerization which could provide much more accurate information than in the past. We will no longer report data that is so easy to corrupt. It is even worse than the EPA's global warming data, which if believable would have the world in a state of panic.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week says:
"Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average,"
This week by Streetsmart's Sy Harding:
Reported that the broader NYSE failed to break above its 21 day moving average last week.
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