Sometimes truth and honesty wins against political corruption deceit and hubris. Let the Chinese communists shoot the people who are involved in naked shorting. The Gold to silver ratio changes back.
No sooner than we see the divergence of gold from silver prices… silver catches back up. But that means that there is just speculation again not real concerns over currency losses.
Yesterday speculators responded with anger to Germany extending the German ban on naked shorting. Naked shorting is like your neighbor selling your home with the promise to borrow the home from you as soon as they can. You do not have to give them permission to sell it or borrow it, you may have no intention of ever selling it to the naked short seller, or you may even be planning to sell it yourself. Meanwhile the value of your home plummets because there are so many people offering to sell your home. You lose a fortune (it is impossible for you to come out ahead) if you want to sell it and buy a different home that is not naked shorted/sold. Naked shorting is the illegal process in America of selling shares of stock that you do not own. Germany made it illegal a few years ago but like fools they listened to a few wall street highwaymen who said Americans are dumb. So the Germans put an expiration date on their wise law against that form of highway robbery. Yesterday the highway robbers were shorting German stocks in retaliation for extending the German ban on naked shorting. It is impossible to catch all naked shorting. We need a treaty with China to take their dissidents who seek American liberty… in exchange for the communists taking Americans who do naked shorting. The communists would take care of the world's naked shorting problem permanently.
Yesterday CT. Democrat Senate candidate Blumenthal was caught in a John Kerry lying blunder. Near the end of the Vietnam War, starting in 1970, all deferments of military draft eligibility were eliminated and America went to a lottery for drafting men. At that time the only way to avoid active duty in Vietnam was to join the Coast Guard or the Reserves. Only rich kids and political contributions or connections could buy a safe Coast Guard or Reserve position. Former Senator Bayh of Indiana got his son such a position, as did the wealthy father of Dan Quaile. Such intentional avoidance of service or "risk avoidance" (some say cowardice others say shrewdness) is a political liability. Not only did the Democrat Candidate Blumenthal get a cherished appointment to the reserves to avoid having to go to Vietnam, but also he was caught on tape lying and saying he served in Vietnam. Coincidentally the CT Supreme Court unanimously told the very aggressive self-serving lady seeking Blumenthal's abandoned CT Attorney General position that she, by state law, is incompetent to be an Attorney General. That reversed the decision of the lower court political hack judge who first said that she was qualified. Sometimes truth and honesty wins against political corruption deceit and hubris.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline lost momentum. Yesterday the market tested some people dearly again and came close to recent lows. The data still looks like the next three-month bullish cycle has already begun.
People knew about the USA housing bubble back in 2006 but it took until late 2007 for the US housing decline to become evident and for the stock market to even begin to react. It could be some time before the price bubble problem hits China because they have almost a 50% savings rate so they can afford higher housing payments for some time and they have an extreme housing shortage not a glut.
Economic Calendar
This Week
US Net Long-term Treasury International Capital (TIC) Flows rise to $140.5B in Mar vs. $47.1B in Feb. The 90.7 Billion increase is an impressive rebound from the last two months which showed a combined decline of -8 billion. The increase was the highest since April 2008. It seems in June the flow of funds back into the dollar resumed after some moves out in prior months.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index recorded a figure of 19.11 in May compared to a reading of 31.86 the month prior. Any positive value is still goodness but the decline in the number was more than expected.
Yesterday:
Building Permits Apr: Down from 680K last month to 606K. But housing Starts Apr rose from 626K to 672K. This implies that the oversupply rate is declining over time.
The main producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1%, seasonally adjusted. The core rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2%, the Labor Department reported. That is at a 2.4% annual rate that is not inflationary.
May 19
Core CPI Apr
CPI Apr
Crude Inventories
May 20
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims 05/15
Leading Indicators Apr
Philadelphia Fed
Market Outlook May 19, 2010
The markets yesterday tested investors risk tolerance to shake out the weak hands. The buying opportunity was extended another day.
World Markets
Asian markets were down last night, Shanghai down -0.7%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -2.8%, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down today in the range from -1.3% to -2.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down decisively this morning by about -0.7%. As with yesterday and most days U.S. Futures are a snapshot of the moment and do not correlate with what happens by the end of the day. Yesterday it indicated the buying opportunity might be over and today it says this morning there is still an opportunity to buy relatively low.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The Gold to silver ratio is changing
The Gold to silver ratio is changing
In the past we saw silver prices rise faster than gold prices. But that meant that there was just speculation not concerns over currency losses. Now you can see gold finally rising and breaking free of other precious metals. It means currency fears are beginning. But even so, the price is driven by emotions and the emotion fear was high yesterday. So Jim Cramer was wrong again yesterday. He just began recommending gold as an investment when gold is at a relative high and at a resistance level. Jim Cramer is 180 degrees out of sync in his advice and flip flops every week or two on whether things are getting better or worse. Yesterday he was extremely pessimistic just when we had one of our last buying opportunities before the market advances again. Yesterday he finally realized that China has a real estate bubble. We have been warning about Asian bubbles for some time. But when everyone else begins worrying and even Jim Cramer panics like he did yesterday… you know that now is the time to get back into the equities markets and to take profits with gold.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline lost momentum. Yesterday the market tested some people dearly but bounced right back. The data looks like the next bullish cycle has already begun.
People knew about the USA housing bubble back in 2006 but it took until late 2007 for the US housing decline to become evident and for the stock market to even begin to react. It could be some time before the problem hits China because they have almost a 50% savings rate so they can afford higher housing payments for some time and they have an extreme housing shortage not a glut.
Economic Calendar
This Week
Yesterday:
US Net Long-term Treasury International Capital (TIC) Flows rise to $140.5B in Mar vs. $47.1B in Feb. The 90.7 Billion increase is an impressive rebound from the last two months which showed a combined decline of -8 billion. The increase was the highest since April 2008. It seems in June the flow of funds back into the dollar resumed after some moves out in prior months.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index recorded a figure of 19.11 in May compared to a reading of 31.86 the month prior. Any positive value is still goodness but the decline in the number was more than expected.
May 18
Building Permits Apr
Core PPI Apr
Housing Starts Apr
PPI Apr
May 19
Core CPI Apr
CPI Apr
Crude Inventories
May 20
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims 05/15
Leading Indicators Apr
Philadelphia Fed
Market Outlook May 18, 2010
The markets yesterday tested investors risk tolerance to shake out the weak hands. That probably was the best opportunity to buy we will see for the next two or three months.
With last weeks trading gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could occur in from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high will be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fall short of a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the previous lows. We however expect that resistance will be like butter cut by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as before. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible to Jim Cramer GE/MSNBC/Pravda by then as well. When they panic, the new market lows that are likely this summer will probably end up being the best buying opportunities of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night, Shanghai up 1.4%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.1%.
European markets are recovering today in the range from 1.2% to 2.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up decisively this morning by about 0.7%. With last weeks gaps now closed the market downside risk is reduced significantly and the market shook out the weak hands yesterday.
In the past we saw silver prices rise faster than gold prices. But that meant that there was just speculation not concerns over currency losses. Now you can see gold finally rising and breaking free of other precious metals. It means currency fears are beginning. But even so, the price is driven by emotions and the emotion fear was high yesterday. So Jim Cramer was wrong again yesterday. He just began recommending gold as an investment when gold is at a relative high and at a resistance level. Jim Cramer is 180 degrees out of sync in his advice and flip flops every week or two on whether things are getting better or worse. Yesterday he was extremely pessimistic just when we had one of our last buying opportunities before the market advances again. Yesterday he finally realized that China has a real estate bubble. We have been warning about Asian bubbles for some time. But when everyone else begins worrying and even Jim Cramer panics like he did yesterday… you know that now is the time to get back into the equities markets and to take profits with gold.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline lost momentum. Yesterday the market tested some people dearly but bounced right back. The data looks like the next bullish cycle has already begun.
People knew about the USA housing bubble back in 2006 but it took until late 2007 for the US housing decline to become evident and for the stock market to even begin to react. It could be some time before the problem hits China because they have almost a 50% savings rate so they can afford higher housing payments for some time and they have an extreme housing shortage not a glut.
Economic Calendar
This Week
Yesterday:
US Net Long-term Treasury International Capital (TIC) Flows rise to $140.5B in Mar vs. $47.1B in Feb. The 90.7 Billion increase is an impressive rebound from the last two months which showed a combined decline of -8 billion. The increase was the highest since April 2008. It seems in June the flow of funds back into the dollar resumed after some moves out in prior months.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index recorded a figure of 19.11 in May compared to a reading of 31.86 the month prior. Any positive value is still goodness but the decline in the number was more than expected.
May 18
Building Permits Apr
Core PPI Apr
Housing Starts Apr
PPI Apr
May 19
Core CPI Apr
CPI Apr
Crude Inventories
May 20
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims 05/15
Leading Indicators Apr
Philadelphia Fed
Market Outlook May 18, 2010
The markets yesterday tested investors risk tolerance to shake out the weak hands. That probably was the best opportunity to buy we will see for the next two or three months.
With last weeks trading gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could occur in from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high will be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fall short of a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the previous lows. We however expect that resistance will be like butter cut by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as before. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible to Jim Cramer GE/MSNBC/Pravda by then as well. When they panic, the new market lows that are likely this summer will probably end up being the best buying opportunities of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night, Shanghai up 1.4%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.1%.
European markets are recovering today in the range from 1.2% to 2.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up decisively this morning by about 0.7%. With last weeks gaps now closed the market downside risk is reduced significantly and the market shook out the weak hands yesterday.
Monday, May 17, 2010
As kids we worried much more about nuclear annihilation of the human race than about social security.
As kids we worried much more about nuclear annihilation of the human race than about social security.
As kids we saw many people who paid little or nothing into Social Security getting SS. We didn’t begrudge them those benefits. Many of them had risked their lives for us in the two world wars. We worried instead that the world would end in a nuclear holocaust before we could retire. Later we saw liberals giving welfare mothers money from Social Security by having their children deemed damaged goods so they could get free behavior control drugs and extra cash from SS. That was wrong because SS was supposed to be for retirement not for wealth redistribution. Now the acts of the liberals have bankrupted the system. But young liberals today are such babies and they want to rob their parents SS. Old liberals are even worse and they want to bankrupt their grandchildren with debts so their lazy liberal children can get free health care and a house they cannot afford.
Churchill is credited with saying:
If you are under 30 and not liberal you have no heart. If you are over 30 and are liberal you have no brain. Liberals may argue about who actually said it to divert attention because regardless… it is a great truth.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline is losing momentum fast.
However the bursting China bubble is starting first with minor ruptures and will likely combine with Obama's idiotic socialist programs to cause a major economic lapse in America next year when higher Obama socialist wealth redistribution taxes remove the incentives of entrepreneurs. We believe the corrupt socialists are already using entrepreneur programs to funnel taxpayer cash to other incompetent socialists the way millions were funneled to the place Obama's wife worked when Obama first became a Senator. The socialists are already corrupting all their socialist economic programs the way they corrupted the mortgage industry with Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. All the Obama economic programs are corrupt phony programs intended to steal money from taxpayers and redistribute it to their socialist and communist rising gangsters the way the Russian gangsters stole money and whole national industries in the 1990s. Ultimately they will bring to America the murders and kidnappings we already see in our socialist banana republic neighbors in South and Central America. That is why Americans need to throw these socialist bums out as soon as possible. Remember Obama loves Ortega.
Economic Calendar
Last week
Retail Sales - Again they dropped last months number by 0.2% from its original 2.1% increase. Therefore instead of the increase being just 0.2% this month they could lie and report it better by 0.4%. Retail sales actually contracted sharply from a 2.1% increase to a 0.2% increase. That is a rapid slowdown in retail sails growth and not good news. However the GE/MSNBC/Pravda " Obama propaganda machine" ignored the slower growth and just reported it as good news lying and saying retail sales increased 0.4%.
Industrial Production was also slightly distorted but it was still good news. GE/MSNBC/Pravda reported it as up 0.8% and it was probably up about 0.7%.
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.: Definitely improved to 73.3 from 72.2.
This Week
May 17
Net long-term TIC Flows Feb
May 18
Building Permits Apr
Core PPI Apr
Housing Starts Apr
PPI Apr
May 19
Core CPI Apr
CPI Apr
Crude Inventories
May 20
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims 05/15
Leading Indicators Apr
Philadelphia Fed
Market Outlook May 17, 2010
The markets dropped on low volume Friday indicating that investors are still very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Most stock and index gaps were closed and Friday was perhaps the best buying opportunity we will see for at least six weeks. For example look at the gaps filled in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. For example EDC, DZK, and TNA had even their gaps closed. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, and that was again the case on Friday (just four days.
Why does that happen? In this particular case the gaps were downward overshoots that were so large that they pulled down the averages at an accelerated rate, so fast that a few days later the 50 day moving average was penetrated triggering computer driven sell-offs down closing the gaps. That usually provides a great buying opportunity
With the gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could occur in from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by socialist GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Jim Cramer to expect a new high… we expect the market will now rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the lows of last week. We however expect that resistance will be like butter cut by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last week. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. The new market lows that are likely this summer probably be the best buying opportunities of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down sharply, especially China last night; Shanghai down -5.1%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, India down -1%, and Japan down -2.2%.
European markets are recovering today in the range from 0.5% to 1.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat this morning. But with last weeks gaps now closed the market downside risk is reduced significantly.
The new danger is the eventual China bubble problem on the horizon.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
Two Choices: Restructure Debts or Debase Currencies
Monetary policy is only as good as fiscal policy. A central bank does not have wealth of its own. It is a zero-sum entity that can only enrich those from whom it purchases debt by debasing the relative wealth of people who hold the existing stock of currency. If a government insists on running deficits, engaging in wasteful spending, and dissipating public resources to bail out private bondholders, it has to find somebody willing to buy its debt. If it does not, the central bank buys it, and dilutes the currency by doing so. The situation is particularly insidious when the central bank buys low-quality debt, because there is no taxing authority behind it to provide a basis for confidence in the currency.
Street Smart this week reports
Saturday, How Not To Create Confidence!
" Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, is quoted by the German Newspaper Der Spiegel, with the quotes spreading globally, that Europe’s economy “is in its most difficult situation since World War II or perhaps even World War I.” And that the current debt crisis is similar to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, after which “the markets didn’t work anymore.”
As kids we saw many people who paid little or nothing into Social Security getting SS. We didn’t begrudge them those benefits. Many of them had risked their lives for us in the two world wars. We worried instead that the world would end in a nuclear holocaust before we could retire. Later we saw liberals giving welfare mothers money from Social Security by having their children deemed damaged goods so they could get free behavior control drugs and extra cash from SS. That was wrong because SS was supposed to be for retirement not for wealth redistribution. Now the acts of the liberals have bankrupted the system. But young liberals today are such babies and they want to rob their parents SS. Old liberals are even worse and they want to bankrupt their grandchildren with debts so their lazy liberal children can get free health care and a house they cannot afford.
Churchill is credited with saying:
If you are under 30 and not liberal you have no heart. If you are over 30 and are liberal you have no brain. Liberals may argue about who actually said it to divert attention because regardless… it is a great truth.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline is losing momentum fast.
However the bursting China bubble is starting first with minor ruptures and will likely combine with Obama's idiotic socialist programs to cause a major economic lapse in America next year when higher Obama socialist wealth redistribution taxes remove the incentives of entrepreneurs. We believe the corrupt socialists are already using entrepreneur programs to funnel taxpayer cash to other incompetent socialists the way millions were funneled to the place Obama's wife worked when Obama first became a Senator. The socialists are already corrupting all their socialist economic programs the way they corrupted the mortgage industry with Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. All the Obama economic programs are corrupt phony programs intended to steal money from taxpayers and redistribute it to their socialist and communist rising gangsters the way the Russian gangsters stole money and whole national industries in the 1990s. Ultimately they will bring to America the murders and kidnappings we already see in our socialist banana republic neighbors in South and Central America. That is why Americans need to throw these socialist bums out as soon as possible. Remember Obama loves Ortega.
Economic Calendar
Last week
Retail Sales - Again they dropped last months number by 0.2% from its original 2.1% increase. Therefore instead of the increase being just 0.2% this month they could lie and report it better by 0.4%. Retail sales actually contracted sharply from a 2.1% increase to a 0.2% increase. That is a rapid slowdown in retail sails growth and not good news. However the GE/MSNBC/Pravda " Obama propaganda machine" ignored the slower growth and just reported it as good news lying and saying retail sales increased 0.4%.
Industrial Production was also slightly distorted but it was still good news. GE/MSNBC/Pravda reported it as up 0.8% and it was probably up about 0.7%.
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.: Definitely improved to 73.3 from 72.2.
This Week
May 17
Net long-term TIC Flows Feb
May 18
Building Permits Apr
Core PPI Apr
Housing Starts Apr
PPI Apr
May 19
Core CPI Apr
CPI Apr
Crude Inventories
May 20
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims 05/15
Leading Indicators Apr
Philadelphia Fed
Market Outlook May 17, 2010
The markets dropped on low volume Friday indicating that investors are still very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Most stock and index gaps were closed and Friday was perhaps the best buying opportunity we will see for at least six weeks. For example look at the gaps filled in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. For example EDC, DZK, and TNA had even their gaps closed. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, and that was again the case on Friday (just four days.
Why does that happen? In this particular case the gaps were downward overshoots that were so large that they pulled down the averages at an accelerated rate, so fast that a few days later the 50 day moving average was penetrated triggering computer driven sell-offs down closing the gaps. That usually provides a great buying opportunity
With the gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could occur in from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by socialist GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Jim Cramer to expect a new high… we expect the market will now rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the lows of last week. We however expect that resistance will be like butter cut by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last week. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. The new market lows that are likely this summer probably be the best buying opportunities of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down sharply, especially China last night; Shanghai down -5.1%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, India down -1%, and Japan down -2.2%.
European markets are recovering today in the range from 0.5% to 1.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat this morning. But with last weeks gaps now closed the market downside risk is reduced significantly.
The new danger is the eventual China bubble problem on the horizon.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
Two Choices: Restructure Debts or Debase Currencies
Monetary policy is only as good as fiscal policy. A central bank does not have wealth of its own. It is a zero-sum entity that can only enrich those from whom it purchases debt by debasing the relative wealth of people who hold the existing stock of currency. If a government insists on running deficits, engaging in wasteful spending, and dissipating public resources to bail out private bondholders, it has to find somebody willing to buy its debt. If it does not, the central bank buys it, and dilutes the currency by doing so. The situation is particularly insidious when the central bank buys low-quality debt, because there is no taxing authority behind it to provide a basis for confidence in the currency.
Street Smart this week reports
Saturday, How Not To Create Confidence!
" Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, is quoted by the German Newspaper Der Spiegel, with the quotes spreading globally, that Europe’s economy “is in its most difficult situation since World War II or perhaps even World War I.” And that the current debt crisis is similar to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, after which “the markets didn’t work anymore.”
Saturday, May 15, 2010
As kids we worried more about nuclear extermination than about social security.
As kids we worried more about nuclear extermination than about social security.
As kids we saw many people who paid little or nothing into Social Security getting social security. We didn’t begrudge them that benefit. Many of them risked their lives for us in the two world wars. We worried instead that the world would end in a nuclear holocaust before we could retire. Young liberals today are such babies and they want to rob their parents. Old liberals are worse and they want to bankrupt their grandchildren with debts just so their lazy liberal children can get free health care and a house they cannot afford.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline is losing momentum fast.
Economic Calendar
Last week
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 17, 2010
The markets dropped on low volume yesterday indicating that investors are becoming very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Most stock and index gaps were closed and Friday was perhaps the best buying opportunity we will see for at least six weeks. For example look at the gaps filled in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. EDC, DZK, and TNA had their gaps closed. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, and that was the case on Friday (just four days. Why does that happen? In this particular case the gap is so large that in pulls down the averages so fast that the 50 day moving average is penetrated giving a computer driven sell-off.
With the gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down significantly last night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India down -1.5%, and Japan down -1.6%.
European markets down sharply today in the range from -1.2% to -2.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about 0.7% this morning.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
Evidence of Financial Wrong-Doing Piles Up.
As kids we saw many people who paid little or nothing into Social Security getting social security. We didn’t begrudge them that benefit. Many of them risked their lives for us in the two world wars. We worried instead that the world would end in a nuclear holocaust before we could retire. Young liberals today are such babies and they want to rob their parents. Old liberals are worse and they want to bankrupt their grandchildren with debts just so their lazy liberal children can get free health care and a house they cannot afford.
World Markets:
We believe the worst of the current decline is just about spent. Volume on this last decline was still quite low showing the decline is losing momentum fast.
Economic Calendar
Last week
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 17, 2010
The markets dropped on low volume yesterday indicating that investors are becoming very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Most stock and index gaps were closed and Friday was perhaps the best buying opportunity we will see for at least six weeks. For example look at the gaps filled in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. EDC, DZK, and TNA had their gaps closed. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, and that was the case on Friday (just four days. Why does that happen? In this particular case the gap is so large that in pulls down the averages so fast that the 50 day moving average is penetrated giving a computer driven sell-off.
With the gaps closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down significantly last night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India down -1.5%, and Japan down -1.6%.
European markets down sharply today in the range from -1.2% to -2.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about 0.7% this morning.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
Evidence of Financial Wrong-Doing Piles Up.
Friday, May 14, 2010
The Obama government continues to produce corrupted economic data to hide its banana republic ineptness.
The Obama government continues to produce corrupted economic data to hide its banana republic ineptness.
Below you see the persistent corruption of economic data by first lying by reporting data optimistically and then adjusting the data towards the truth when nobody is looking so that the new data almost always shows an improvement in the economy.
The Obama administration has the lowest representation of intelligent private sector problem solvers in recent history. Now Obama wants to appoint Kagan, a person with no significant judicial experience, to the Supreme Court. All she is credited with is an ability to talk well without intelligent things to say similar to the way Obama talks. Obama says nothing but says it well. She is another banana republic socialist talker with no intelligent things being said or proposed. They are socialists not problem solvers such as good American leaders would be if they came from from the private sector. Kagan has always been and obviously still is being advanced just because she is a woman and a socialist not because she is competent. It has been pointed out that when the country was founded the entire court was composed of protestant men and now the leftist lunatic bigots have gotten the court down to one single protestant man. The leftist lunatics think that is an unbiased representation of America.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less ardent communists and more corrupt the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Housing prices in China are more distorted today than they were in Japan in 1989 just before the Japanese boom went bust. It appears the Chinese housing bubble will burst soon, perhaps this year but not until a recession begins and the Chinese experience rising unemployment as they had in 1997. When unemployment rises the housing bubble will burst and they will experience what Japan experienced since 1990 and America has experience since 2007.
In the past American free enterprise has always provided a stable currency and has always bailed out the world by advancing world wide technology faster than corrupt socialist fascists and Communists could destroy wealth. But with corrupt American socialists now carving up and consuming American free enterprise that era is coming to an end. Americans must rise up in November and throw out the corrupt socialists before it is too late and they create a permanent economic underclass that votes 90% or higher for a corrupt socialist tyranny to take care of them cradle to grave.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network, flat operating income at $1.3 billion, and decreased primetime and news ad revenues were reported optimistically with much fanfare by GE/MSNBC/Pravda.
View three years of the following. Do not be fooled by the three or six months Jim Cramer shows to deceive his viewers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009.
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, but sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in March to the highest level in more than a year. The trade deficit stands to get much worse as the world debt crisis pushes the dollar up against the euro and obviates the need for China to revalue higher. Ultimately Obama's policy will shift the crisis to America and the American currency will collapse. But the American debt crisis will not begin until Obama tax and spending kicks into high gear next year and crushes the American recovery.
Yesterday
Unemployment initial claims were once again manipulated by the Obama administration. They have about 90% liars rating. The last time they were at 444,000 but that was revised upward by 4,000 so that this time they could cut initial claims from 448,000 down to 444,000. So the truth is initial claims increased 4000 or about 1% from 444K to 448K but Obama lied and increased the last number by 4K while nobody was looking so he could subtract 4K for this announcement. They lied by 2% in order to turn a 1% increase in new unemployment claims into a manufactured lying 1% decrease.
Obama lied on continuing claims as well. The last report said 4,595,000 people were collecting unemployment. Later when no one was looking they increased that number to 4,615,000 or by 20,000 so that they could falsely claim a reduction of 20,000 from the truth. Claims jumped to 4,627,000 from 4,595,000 even after subtracting the 20,000 or over 1%. That is why unemployment is now over 10% even though they lied and said things improved. Many people are being kicked off of unemployment now.
Corporate earnings reports are distorted to look exceptional because after earnings dropped 99% last year (2009) to 1% of 2008 earnings all they have to do is grow to 2% of 2008's earnings and they can report that earnings are up 100% from last year (2009). But anyone with any sense knows that is the same as saying 2010 earnings are still down 98% from 2008. So the 100% improvement this year still stinks because we need a 9900% improvement just to get to a pre-Obama economy. Jim Cramer apparently has not figured that out yet. Or else he is one the folks that sell their clients a bill of goods so they can turn a profit. Does Jim pump his held stocks and then dumps them later?
Remember, until Obama came on the scene all intelligent well intentioned political candidates avoided the "D" word because they knew mentioning the "D" word could cause an economic crisis of confidence in the economy and therefore trigger another Great "D". Obama proved he could win an election by ignorantly, maliciously and irresponsibly claiming GW caused a "D" (depression). The crisis occurred within less than a year of Obama first using the "D" word in speeches. Obama not GW caused this crisis and his Greek socialist tax and spend agenda coupled with loose depression talk will cause a Great Depression if he is not booted out of office ASAP.
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 14, 2010
The markets dropped on very low volume yesterday indicating that investors are becoming very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Many stocks and indices have gapped upward and investors may be cautious until the market retraces and closes the gaps. For example look at the gaps in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. EDC, DZK, and TNA have serious gaps, as do many others. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, But sometimes it takes six weeks or more and until a market breakdown occurs. Investors feel very uncomfortable buying stocks above their gaps when in most cases they can place a limit order and buy nearer the bottom of the gap.
When the gaps have been closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down significantly last night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India down -1.5%, and Japan down -1.6%.
European markets down sharply today in the range from -1.2% to -2.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about 0,7% this morning.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
Evidence of Financial Wrong-Doing Piles Up.
Below you see the persistent corruption of economic data by first lying by reporting data optimistically and then adjusting the data towards the truth when nobody is looking so that the new data almost always shows an improvement in the economy.
The Obama administration has the lowest representation of intelligent private sector problem solvers in recent history. Now Obama wants to appoint Kagan, a person with no significant judicial experience, to the Supreme Court. All she is credited with is an ability to talk well without intelligent things to say similar to the way Obama talks. Obama says nothing but says it well. She is another banana republic socialist talker with no intelligent things being said or proposed. They are socialists not problem solvers such as good American leaders would be if they came from from the private sector. Kagan has always been and obviously still is being advanced just because she is a woman and a socialist not because she is competent. It has been pointed out that when the country was founded the entire court was composed of protestant men and now the leftist lunatic bigots have gotten the court down to one single protestant man. The leftist lunatics think that is an unbiased representation of America.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less ardent communists and more corrupt the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Housing prices in China are more distorted today than they were in Japan in 1989 just before the Japanese boom went bust. It appears the Chinese housing bubble will burst soon, perhaps this year but not until a recession begins and the Chinese experience rising unemployment as they had in 1997. When unemployment rises the housing bubble will burst and they will experience what Japan experienced since 1990 and America has experience since 2007.
In the past American free enterprise has always provided a stable currency and has always bailed out the world by advancing world wide technology faster than corrupt socialist fascists and Communists could destroy wealth. But with corrupt American socialists now carving up and consuming American free enterprise that era is coming to an end. Americans must rise up in November and throw out the corrupt socialists before it is too late and they create a permanent economic underclass that votes 90% or higher for a corrupt socialist tyranny to take care of them cradle to grave.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network, flat operating income at $1.3 billion, and decreased primetime and news ad revenues were reported optimistically with much fanfare by GE/MSNBC/Pravda.
View three years of the following. Do not be fooled by the three or six months Jim Cramer shows to deceive his viewers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009.
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, but sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in March to the highest level in more than a year. The trade deficit stands to get much worse as the world debt crisis pushes the dollar up against the euro and obviates the need for China to revalue higher. Ultimately Obama's policy will shift the crisis to America and the American currency will collapse. But the American debt crisis will not begin until Obama tax and spending kicks into high gear next year and crushes the American recovery.
Yesterday
Unemployment initial claims were once again manipulated by the Obama administration. They have about 90% liars rating. The last time they were at 444,000 but that was revised upward by 4,000 so that this time they could cut initial claims from 448,000 down to 444,000. So the truth is initial claims increased 4000 or about 1% from 444K to 448K but Obama lied and increased the last number by 4K while nobody was looking so he could subtract 4K for this announcement. They lied by 2% in order to turn a 1% increase in new unemployment claims into a manufactured lying 1% decrease.
Obama lied on continuing claims as well. The last report said 4,595,000 people were collecting unemployment. Later when no one was looking they increased that number to 4,615,000 or by 20,000 so that they could falsely claim a reduction of 20,000 from the truth. Claims jumped to 4,627,000 from 4,595,000 even after subtracting the 20,000 or over 1%. That is why unemployment is now over 10% even though they lied and said things improved. Many people are being kicked off of unemployment now.
Corporate earnings reports are distorted to look exceptional because after earnings dropped 99% last year (2009) to 1% of 2008 earnings all they have to do is grow to 2% of 2008's earnings and they can report that earnings are up 100% from last year (2009). But anyone with any sense knows that is the same as saying 2010 earnings are still down 98% from 2008. So the 100% improvement this year still stinks because we need a 9900% improvement just to get to a pre-Obama economy. Jim Cramer apparently has not figured that out yet. Or else he is one the folks that sell their clients a bill of goods so they can turn a profit. Does Jim pump his held stocks and then dumps them later?
Remember, until Obama came on the scene all intelligent well intentioned political candidates avoided the "D" word because they knew mentioning the "D" word could cause an economic crisis of confidence in the economy and therefore trigger another Great "D". Obama proved he could win an election by ignorantly, maliciously and irresponsibly claiming GW caused a "D" (depression). The crisis occurred within less than a year of Obama first using the "D" word in speeches. Obama not GW caused this crisis and his Greek socialist tax and spend agenda coupled with loose depression talk will cause a Great Depression if he is not booted out of office ASAP.
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 14, 2010
The markets dropped on very low volume yesterday indicating that investors are becoming very cautious now and reluctant to buy or short the market. Risk is perceived now as very high. Many stocks and indices have gapped upward and investors may be cautious until the market retraces and closes the gaps. For example look at the gaps in these sectors which clearly have many gapped stocks involved. EDC, DZK, and TNA have serious gaps, as do many others. If you examine their price history you see that 90% of the time they close their gaps within 3 to 8 days, But sometimes it takes six weeks or more and until a market breakdown occurs. Investors feel very uncomfortable buying stocks above their gaps when in most cases they can place a limit order and buy nearer the bottom of the gap.
When the gaps have been closed a gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investor (who cannot use volume) thinks the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore expect the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were down significantly last night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India down -1.5%, and Japan down -1.6%.
European markets down sharply today in the range from -1.2% to -2.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about 0,7% this morning.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
Evidence of Financial Wrong-Doing Piles Up.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Is the Obama investigation of Wall Street due diligence or more political corruption?
Is the Obama investigation of Wall Street due diligence or more political corruption?
The democrat-socialists are having a difficult time raising money this year for their election war chest especially when you consider how much money they took in during the credit crunch in 2008 when even city bonding auctions dried up. Corrupt politicians always love to start their dirty political investigations just before elections because corrupt businessmen and drug cartels know that is the time when corrupt politicians collect their dues from the stingy crooks. They also like to investigate honest opponents at that time to drag them trough the mud.
They investigated President Ronald Reagan because he gave the Iranian Ayatollah a Bible and they then made a fool of themselves investigating Col. Oliver North. The evil that the democrat-socialists perceived and wanted to expose was that the US was quietly supporting opponents of Communism in Central America. About 99% of Americans thought supporting opponents of Communism in Central America was a good idea so the corrupt socialists lost that election just as they are being crushed in every local election in the USA this year.
The democrat-socialists expanded their investigation today as they throw out the nets for contributions. Soon we will know if they are actually honestly seeking to stop Wall Street corrupt ethics and practices or whether they are just extorting political contributions to turn off the heat on corrupt contributors and turn up the heat on honest businessmen who do not heed the extortion notice.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and survive similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China. Housing prices in China are more distorted today than they were in Japan in 1989 just before the Japanese boom went bust. It appears the Chinese bubble will burst soon, perhaps even this year but not until a recession begins and the Chinese experience rising unemployment as they had in 1997. When unemployment rises the housing bubble will burst and they will experience what America has experience since 2007.
In the past American free enterprise has always provided a stable currency and has always bailed out the world by advancing world wide technology faster than socialist fascists and Communists could destroy wealth. But with American socialists now carving up and consuming American free enterprise... that era is coning to an end. Americans must rise up in November and throw out the socialists before it is too late and the socialists create a permanent economic underclass that votes 90% to 99%for socialist tyranny to take care of them cradle to grave.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network upstaged a turnaround at its film division and its shares fell 3.5 percent. Revenues in the media networks division, home to cable networks like ESPN and broadcaster ABC, rose 6 percent to $3.8 billion, but operating income was flat at $1.3 billion. Within the division, operating income at Disney's broadcasting networks fell $39 million to $123 million primarily due to decreased primetime and news ad revenues at ABC TV network and higher programming costs.
View three years of the following not three or six months like Jim Cramer shows to deceive listeners.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009. It also decided to leave unchanged its program of buying government bonds and other assets to revive the economy. That program currently stands at £200 billion, or $296 billion.
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, but sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The 0.4 percent gain in the value of stockpiles followed a 0.6 percent increase the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales gained 2.4 percent, the most since November. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
Yesterday
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in March to the highest level in more than a year as the cost of imported oil climbed and companies restocked shelves with goods bought abroad. The trade deficit stands to get much worse as the world debt crisis (especially the European crisis) pushes the dollar up against the euro and obviates the need for China to revalue higher. Ultimately Obama's policy will shift the crisis to America and the American currency will collapse. But the American debt crisis will not begin until Obama tax and spending kicks into high gear next year and crushes the American recovery.
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 12, 2010
The markets climbed on very low volume yesterday indicating that there are very few bulls driving up the market and that the bears have covered themselves already and are not at risk of a short squeeze. The market bounce was quick, the re-testing was quick and partial and now a more gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
Many stocks and stock sectors did not re-test lows but in fact have left gaps near their lows. Technically I have never heard a good reason why markets always seem to close those gaps but I have seen that happen over and over. That technical phenomena alone could cause a retest of the lows within six weeks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night; Shanghai up 2.1%, Hong Kong up 1%, India up 0.4%, and Japan up 2.2%.
European markets flat today in the range from 0% to +0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures appear manipulated as usual.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
The democrat-socialists are having a difficult time raising money this year for their election war chest especially when you consider how much money they took in during the credit crunch in 2008 when even city bonding auctions dried up. Corrupt politicians always love to start their dirty political investigations just before elections because corrupt businessmen and drug cartels know that is the time when corrupt politicians collect their dues from the stingy crooks. They also like to investigate honest opponents at that time to drag them trough the mud.
They investigated President Ronald Reagan because he gave the Iranian Ayatollah a Bible and they then made a fool of themselves investigating Col. Oliver North. The evil that the democrat-socialists perceived and wanted to expose was that the US was quietly supporting opponents of Communism in Central America. About 99% of Americans thought supporting opponents of Communism in Central America was a good idea so the corrupt socialists lost that election just as they are being crushed in every local election in the USA this year.
The democrat-socialists expanded their investigation today as they throw out the nets for contributions. Soon we will know if they are actually honestly seeking to stop Wall Street corrupt ethics and practices or whether they are just extorting political contributions to turn off the heat on corrupt contributors and turn up the heat on honest businessmen who do not heed the extortion notice.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and survive similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China. Housing prices in China are more distorted today than they were in Japan in 1989 just before the Japanese boom went bust. It appears the Chinese bubble will burst soon, perhaps even this year but not until a recession begins and the Chinese experience rising unemployment as they had in 1997. When unemployment rises the housing bubble will burst and they will experience what America has experience since 2007.
In the past American free enterprise has always provided a stable currency and has always bailed out the world by advancing world wide technology faster than socialist fascists and Communists could destroy wealth. But with American socialists now carving up and consuming American free enterprise... that era is coning to an end. Americans must rise up in November and throw out the socialists before it is too late and the socialists create a permanent economic underclass that votes 90% to 99%for socialist tyranny to take care of them cradle to grave.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network upstaged a turnaround at its film division and its shares fell 3.5 percent. Revenues in the media networks division, home to cable networks like ESPN and broadcaster ABC, rose 6 percent to $3.8 billion, but operating income was flat at $1.3 billion. Within the division, operating income at Disney's broadcasting networks fell $39 million to $123 million primarily due to decreased primetime and news ad revenues at ABC TV network and higher programming costs.
View three years of the following not three or six months like Jim Cramer shows to deceive listeners.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009. It also decided to leave unchanged its program of buying government bonds and other assets to revive the economy. That program currently stands at £200 billion, or $296 billion.
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, but sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The 0.4 percent gain in the value of stockpiles followed a 0.6 percent increase the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales gained 2.4 percent, the most since November. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
Yesterday
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in March to the highest level in more than a year as the cost of imported oil climbed and companies restocked shelves with goods bought abroad. The trade deficit stands to get much worse as the world debt crisis (especially the European crisis) pushes the dollar up against the euro and obviates the need for China to revalue higher. Ultimately Obama's policy will shift the crisis to America and the American currency will collapse. But the American debt crisis will not begin until Obama tax and spending kicks into high gear next year and crushes the American recovery.
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 12, 2010
The markets climbed on very low volume yesterday indicating that there are very few bulls driving up the market and that the bears have covered themselves already and are not at risk of a short squeeze. The market bounce was quick, the re-testing was quick and partial and now a more gradual advance to near previous highs could take from 4 to 8 weeks. The average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines during the declines. They therefore the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks.
Many stocks and stock sectors did not re-test lows but in fact have left gaps near their lows. Technically I have never heard a good reason why markets always seem to close those gaps but I have seen that happen over and over. That technical phenomena alone could cause a retest of the lows within six weeks.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (in 4 to 8 weeks when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over 4 to 8 weeks. Then we expect a 1 to 2 week second downward market plunge. The average investor will expect that decline to be supported at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows that are likely this summer will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
World Markets
Asian markets were up last night; Shanghai up 2.1%, Hong Kong up 1%, India up 0.4%, and Japan up 2.2%.
European markets flat today in the range from 0% to +0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures appear manipulated as usual.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
Financial Reform Becomes Sillier As It Proceeds.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
The Euro suffers as the Greek Communist Unions earn 1$Trillion for burning three bank employees
The Euro suffers as the Greek Communist Unions earn 1$Trillion for burning three bank employees
European socialists have now given up on the idea of stimulating growth with tax cuts and spending cuts and instead throw another $Trillion to the Greek Communists who burned three bank workers alive last week. Throwing money into the raging world communist fire will only reward those tyrants who rise to lead the growing unemployed underclass and further burn down free enterprise to temporarily keep warm. When the run out of businesses to destroy is when they start throwing the creative and productive entrepreneurs in the Gulags.
Hewey, Dewey, and Louie had a lovely time swimming in money yesterday. Throwing money at problems is however no way to contain a raging fire of incompetence or the growth of an unemployable underclass led by leftist radicals.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network upstaged a turnaround at its film division and its shares fell 3.5 percent. Revenues in the media networks division, home to cable networks like ESPN and broadcaster ABC, rose 6 percent to $3.8 billion, but operating income was flat at $1.3 billion. Within the division, operating income at Disney's broadcasting networks fell $39 million to $123 million primarily due to decreased primetime and news ad revenues at ABC TV network and higher programming costs.
Jim Cramer lied again about China leading an economic recovery… claiming once again that trade is up. Here is the Baltic Dry Index blip he calls the world trade recovery. It is the third blip in a flat trend of worldwide socialist stagnation brought about by a free lunch for leftists and hefty income taxes on productive individuals. That makes unemployment, beautiful trail hiking, and balmy beach combing an attractive life style for a growing younger underclass of socialists. View two years of the following.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009. It also decided to leave unchanged its program of buying government bonds and other assets to revive the economy. That program currently stands at £200 billion, or $296 billion.
Yesterday
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, and sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The 0.4 percent gain in the value of stockpiles followed a 0.6 percent increase the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales gained 2.4 percent, the most since November. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
Wednesday, May 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 12, 2010
The markets were relatively flat yesterday so the volume did not count for much. The average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines and therefore the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks. We also had a higher than expected dead cat bounce and we and the average investors now anticipate a buying opportunity as the lows are tested.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over several weeks. Then we expect a second downward market plunge that the average investor will expect to be supported and to hold at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
In Europe they have seen their markets break down in their raw price levels while in the USA we only see the breakdown in our volume adjusted price levels. So Europe may lead this next market collapse.
After that, what happens is dependant on whether the US economy will revive in spite of everything Obama is doing to destroy free enterprise and expand his systemic underclass voter base of indigents, unemployables, the ignorant, the poor, and the corrupt city political machines that bring in the vote by redistributing the wealth available from stripping down free enterprise. Communism can last 50 years just by stripping down free enterprise the same way you strip the valuables out of an abandoned house. You rip out the copper plumbing and wiring etc and the mansion becomes affordable housing for the growing underclass. That is what the Russian communists did. When Rome fell they even stripped the marble from the beautiful city to make hovels for their illegal immigrants who were rampaging Goths who went by the name "Vandals." The illegal immigrants who sacked Rome are the people who define the nouns vandal and vandalism, the verb to vandalize. Perhaps we will have new words as well such as an obama, obamaism, and a new verb… to obamaize.
World Markets
Asian markets were flat last night; Shanghai up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India up 0.3%, C. Korea down -0.4%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets flat today in the range from -0.2% to +1.1%this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are manipulated as usual.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
European socialists have now given up on the idea of stimulating growth with tax cuts and spending cuts and instead throw another $Trillion to the Greek Communists who burned three bank workers alive last week. Throwing money into the raging world communist fire will only reward those tyrants who rise to lead the growing unemployed underclass and further burn down free enterprise to temporarily keep warm. When the run out of businesses to destroy is when they start throwing the creative and productive entrepreneurs in the Gulags.
Hewey, Dewey, and Louie had a lovely time swimming in money yesterday. Throwing money at problems is however no way to contain a raging fire of incompetence or the growth of an unemployable underclass led by leftist radicals.
World Markets:
It is very likely that Chinese capitalism will fail this year as miserably as Russian capitalism failed in the last decade. However, they may become less communist and similar to the way Russia is today with a much reduced growth rate but still much better than under communism. Then it will again be time for Americans to invest in China.
Economic Calendar
This week
Lower ratings and ad revenues, and higher costs at Walt Disney ABC television network upstaged a turnaround at its film division and its shares fell 3.5 percent. Revenues in the media networks division, home to cable networks like ESPN and broadcaster ABC, rose 6 percent to $3.8 billion, but operating income was flat at $1.3 billion. Within the division, operating income at Disney's broadcasting networks fell $39 million to $123 million primarily due to decreased primetime and news ad revenues at ABC TV network and higher programming costs.
Jim Cramer lied again about China leading an economic recovery… claiming once again that trade is up. Here is the Baltic Dry Index blip he calls the world trade recovery. It is the third blip in a flat trend of worldwide socialist stagnation brought about by a free lunch for leftists and hefty income taxes on productive individuals. That makes unemployment, beautiful trail hiking, and balmy beach combing an attractive life style for a growing younger underclass of socialists. View two years of the following.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The British central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, where it has been since March 2009. It also decided to leave unchanged its program of buying government bonds and other assets to revive the economy. That program currently stands at £200 billion, or $296 billion.
Yesterday
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose for a third month in March, and sales climbed even more, a signal companies will need to step up orders to try to meet demand. The 0.4 percent gain in the value of stockpiles followed a 0.6 percent increase the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales gained 2.4 percent, the most since November. The amount of goods on hand compared to sales dropped to the lowest level on record, indicating factories will need to keep increasing production.
Wednesday, May 12:
U.S. Trade deficit
Thursday, May 13:
Unemployment initial claims
Friday, May 14:
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Consumer Sentiment, Mich.
Market Outlook May 12, 2010
The markets were relatively flat yesterday so the volume did not count for much. The average investors (who cannot use volume) think the bull market had successive highs and held above the necklines and therefore the next market high can be higher than the last one. That is what the average investor thinks. We also had a higher than expected dead cat bounce and we and the average investors now anticipate a buying opportunity as the lows are tested.
But then since the average investor will be told by GE/MSNBC/Pravda to expect a new high we expect the market will rise close to the previous highs (when we want to sell everything). The average investor will expect a new high but we expect this time the raw price history as well as the volume corrected history will both fail to have a new high. Our volume adjusted NYSE price information will not likely even come close to its previous high. That advance should happen probably over several weeks. Then we expect a second downward market plunge that the average investor will expect to be supported and to hold at the low price close of last Thursday. We however expect that resistance will be cut like butter by a hot knife perhaps with inter-day low averages as bad as last Thursday. We do not expect the individual stocks will duplicate last Thursday but the averages could. For instance the inverse silver prices actually declined during the day last Thursday but with communism being rewarded in Greece we expect Europeans to turn to gold, diamonds, art and other solid material goods. We expect precious metal ETFs to soar, but because they have no intrinsic value we expect they will then collapse dramatically. The Chinese and Indian industrial shakeout problems should become clearly visible by then as well. Those new market lows will likely be the best buying opportunity of this year.
In Europe they have seen their markets break down in their raw price levels while in the USA we only see the breakdown in our volume adjusted price levels. So Europe may lead this next market collapse.
After that, what happens is dependant on whether the US economy will revive in spite of everything Obama is doing to destroy free enterprise and expand his systemic underclass voter base of indigents, unemployables, the ignorant, the poor, and the corrupt city political machines that bring in the vote by redistributing the wealth available from stripping down free enterprise. Communism can last 50 years just by stripping down free enterprise the same way you strip the valuables out of an abandoned house. You rip out the copper plumbing and wiring etc and the mansion becomes affordable housing for the growing underclass. That is what the Russian communists did. When Rome fell they even stripped the marble from the beautiful city to make hovels for their illegal immigrants who were rampaging Goths who went by the name "Vandals." The illegal immigrants who sacked Rome are the people who define the nouns vandal and vandalism, the verb to vandalize. Perhaps we will have new words as well such as an obama, obamaism, and a new verb… to obamaize.
World Markets
Asian markets were flat last night; Shanghai up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India up 0.3%, C. Korea down -0.4%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets flat today in the range from -0.2% to +1.1%this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are manipulated as usual.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. this week reports:
"Greek Debt and Backward Induction
The bottom line is that 1) aid from other European nations is the only thing that may prevent the markets from provoking an immediate default through an unwillingness to roll-over existing debt; 2) the aid to Greece is likely to turn out to be a non-recourse subsidy, throwing good money after bad and inducing higher inflationary pressures several years out than are already likely; 3) Greece appears unlikely to remain among euro-zone countries over the long-term; and 4) the backward induction of investors about these concerns may provoke weakened confidence about sovereign debt in the euro-area more generally."
Street Smart this week reports
A Trillion Dollars Buys Only a One-Day Bounce?
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