According to a report by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, GE’s president, Obama’s advisor Jeffrey Immelt, not only exported the highest percentage of jobs, GE runs the Indian firm “Infotech” which was set up to take away American Engineering Jobs, and GE has paid little or no income taxes. Obama’s only corporate advisor is Jeffrey Immelt. All of Obama’s other advisors are leftist lunatics.
Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to go through in about 7 years and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone who owns US Treasuries with a 50% haircut. The USA needs to throw out the socialists who believe in spending beyond our means and on giving welfare instead of an education in American work ethics.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
ECB meeting in Frankfurt is believed likely to be ready to stimulate European economies by cutting the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 1 percent. This is bullish for the EU.
Singapore faces a collapse in housing prices as Asian chaos grows.
Japan’s trade balance fades as lower manufacturing costs and junk from China undermines Japan’s sales. It is reminiscent of the 1950’s when Japanese junk undermined the American and European economies. Junk is very costly because it usually causes damage to other dependent products and is a waste of money, time and energy.
Brazil’s November inflation increased to a 6.2% annual rate.
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos received parliamentary approval for a financial plan that aims to nearly halve next year’s deficit shortfall and possibly allow Greece to remain a member of the EU. The pressure on debtors has declined significantly.
China’s recession risk increased significantly.
Geithner risks USA economy and our children’s future to bail out Europe with US taxpayer dollars. China will benefit from doing nothing to help other countries as they dump inferior products on the world. Chinese computer batteries are said to sell for half the price of American batteries but last 10% the US battery life.
German industrial production rose for the first time in three months as the debt crisis threatens to tip Germany’s large economy into recession.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
The US economy may not dip as Americans increasingly hope that the Obama Regime will be thrown out of office so Americans can change back to an honest free enterprise system.
Holiday consumer spending is up about 5% in the USA and all income bands predict they will purchase much more in 2012 (10 to 40% more). Yet most Americans think Obama is doing a terrible job because he does nothing that helps the American pie grow. Instead American education is run by union leftists who are trying to educate people to pay them higher teacher salaries when the teachers should instead be teaching students how to think intelligently and get off their duffs and make something of themselves. Today’s teachers inspire laziness and incompetence and give students the sense that there is no value in the American values that made America great. Today’s public schools and public employees need an education in the American work ethic so they know how to teach the lazy that work is useful and grows the pie even if they have to start with minimum wage because they got a terrible education. The lazy and incompetent American government workers need a haircut not a full pension when they have worked only 10 years. They often get state pensions after just 10 years and then want to retire! .
This Week
So far
Factory Orders in Oct, -0.4%, down significantly from last month’s +0.3%
ISM Service Sector Nov, 52.0 down from 52.9 last month
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 12/03 12.8% a tremendous improvement from -11.7% last month.
Crude Inventories 12/03 1.336M down from 3.932M means higher fuel prices and fossil fuel stock recovery.
Consumer Credit Oct $7.6B up slightly from $7.4B reported last month is mostly due to student debt.
Today
Dec 8 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/03
Dec 8 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/26
Dec 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct
Coming
Dec 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance Oct
Dec 9 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Dec
The Obama lies
Unemployment Rate Nov 8.6% Obama communist style lies say unemployment down from 9.0%. That is because Obama thinks he will not get re-elected if unemployment is greater than 9%
Market outlook December 8, 2011
Stocks still hover near recent highs. The US and the world economy may not slip back into a recession in spite of Obama incompetence. Real estate has possibly turned the corner but will not take off until Americans are confident that Obama and his leftist supporters will be thrown out of office.
Market vector is predicting the same type of short term rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the market index you want. Things could improve if Obama is persuaded not to run for office, as Lyndon Johnson was when he faced guns & butter stagnation. America has always been decisive in the past. The American Revolution and the World Wars were over in 4 years of American involvement. Americans hate wars but love a good victory over tyranny. Five or more years of war are the American definition of incompetence in leadership. That goes for Republicans as well as Democrats.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
The short squeeze will probably come within 60 days and it is good to take profits in stocks with good runs and buy into stocks and sectors/indexes that are low and that will benefit from a good year end run-up in sales. The sales gains will be reported in January and will probably result in the peak of this intermediate trend rally. Obama is an economic bummer for the USA and it will continue that way because he is such a socialist to the very core. Since the collapse of the USSR communist empire and China’s venture into capitalism only morons still believe in the socialist “welfare state.”
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom. Many are predicting a real estate come back next year.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron and has to manipulate the government statistics just like all communists do to pretend things are getting better.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical upside resistance level now and it needs a breakout so the advance resumes and triggers a short squeeze that could rum stocks up close to previous highs of this year. That will be the time to get back into cash. Complacency has not set in at all yet. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced once over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 95% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were down last night. China down -0.3%, Hong Kong down –0.7%, India down 0%, and Japan down -0.7%.
European markets are mixed today in a range –0.5% to 1% half way through their day.
American market futures are flat about -0.2% at 7:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Obama's advisor Jeffrey Immelt, not only exported the highest percentage of jobs, GE runs “Infotech” which was set up to take away American Engineering Jobs
According to a report by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, GE’s president, Jeffrey Immelt, not only exported the highest percentage of jobs, GE runs the Indian firm “Infotech” which was set up to take away American Engineering Jobs, and GE has paid no income taxes. Obama’s only corporate advisor is Jeffrey Immelt. All of Obama’s other advisors are leftist lunatics.
Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to go through in about 7 years and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means on giving welfare instead of an education in American work ethics.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos received parliamentary approval for a financial plan that aims to nearly halve next year’s deficit shortfall and possibly allow Greece to remain a member of the EU. The pressure on debtors has declined significantly.
China’s recession risk increased significantly.
Geithner risks USA economy and our children’s future to bail out Europe with US taxpayer dollars. China will benefit from doing nothing to help other countries as they dump inferior products on the world. Chinese computer batteries are said to sell for half the price of American batteries but last 10% the US battery life.
German industrial production rose for the first time in three months as the debt crisis threatens to tip Germany’s large economy into recession.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Holiday consumer spending is up about 5% in the USA and all income bands predict they will purchase much more in 2012 (10 to 40% more). Yet most Americans think Obama is doing a terrible job because he does nothing that helps the American pie grow. Instead American education is run by union leftists who are trying to educate people to pay them higher teacher salaries when the teachers should instead be teaching students how to think intelligently and get off their duffs and make something of themselves. Today’s teachers inspire laziness and incompetence and give students the sense that there is no value in the American values that made America great. Today’s public schools and public employees need an education in the American work ethic so they know how to teach the lazy underclass that work is useful and grows the pie even if they have to start with minimum wage because they got a terrible education due to incompetent leftist teachers in all levels of American education. The lazy and incompetent American government workers need a haircut not a full pension when they have worked only 10 years. They often get state pensions after just 10 years and then want to retire! At least that is true in New England.
Last week
The good
Consumer Confidence Nov 56.0 up sharply from 39.8
FHFA Housing Price Index Sep +0.9% great improvement from -0.1%
Construction Spending Oct 0.8% improved from 0.2%
ISM Index Nov 52.7 good inc in manufacturing from 50.8
Pending Home Sales Oct 10.4% -great improvement from -4.60%
Chicago PMI Nov 62.6 manufacturing pick up from 58.4
Crude Inventories 11/26 3.932M inventory good for lower prices -6.219M
The Bad
Auto Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit 4.27M
Truck Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit A 5.84M
Hourly Earnings Nov -0.1% down from 0.2%
ADP Employment Change Nov 206K fewer got jobs down from 110K
Initial Claims 11/26 402K more loosing jobs from 393K
Continuing Claims 11/19 3740K more unemployed from 3691K
Productivity-Rev. Q3 2.3% down from 3.1%
New Home Sales Oct 307K down from 313K
Challenger Job Cuts Nov -12.8% unchanged 12.6%
The indifferent
Average Workweek Nov 34.3 no change from 34.3
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 120K a few more jobs created 80K amid massive layoffs
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov 140K private jobs created 104K
MBA Mortgage Index 11/26 winter slowdown from -1.2%
Unit Labor Costs Q3 -2.5% unchanged -2.4%
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep -3.6% down less than -3.80%
This Week
So far
Factory Orders in Oct, -0.4%, down significantly from last month’s +0.3%
ISM Service Sector Nov, 52.0 down from 52.9 last month
Today
Dec 7 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/03
Dec 7 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/03
Dec 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Oct
Coming
Dec 8 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/03
Dec 8 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/26
Dec 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct
Dec 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance Oct
Dec 9 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Dec
The Obama lies
Unemployment Rate Nov 8.6% Obama communist style lies say unemployment down from 9.0%. That is because Obama thinks he will not get re-elected if unemployment is greater than 9%
Market outlook December 7, 2011
Stocks still hover near recent highs. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Real estate has bottomed out but will not take off until 2013 provided Obama and his leftist supporters are all thrown out of office.
Market vector is predicting the same type of short term rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the market index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
There was tremendous cash flow into the market the last two weeks. The coming short squeeze will probably come within 60 days and it is good to take profits in stocks with good runs and buy into stocks and sectors/indexes that are low and that will benefit from a good year end run-up in sales. The sales gains will be reported in January and will probably result in the peak of this intermediate trend rally. But Obama is an economic bummer for the USA and will continue that way because he is an socialist to the very core.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom. Many are predicting a real estate come back next year.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Today Obama had one of his idiot-economists arguing against three businessmen on Squawk Box trying to claim that the bounce in 2009 was due to Obama not the bounce that every comes with every recession. Obama knows how to create corruption with his green spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is not too clever when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama manipulates the government statistics just like communists do to pretend things are getting better.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical upside resistance level now and it needs a breakout so the advance resumes and triggers a short squeeze that could rum stocks up close to previous highs of this year. That will be the time to get back into cash. Complacency has not set in at all yet. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced once over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 95% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were up last night. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.4%, and Japan up 1.7%.
European markets are up today in a range 0% to 1.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to go through in about 7 years and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means on giving welfare instead of an education in American work ethics.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos received parliamentary approval for a financial plan that aims to nearly halve next year’s deficit shortfall and possibly allow Greece to remain a member of the EU. The pressure on debtors has declined significantly.
China’s recession risk increased significantly.
Geithner risks USA economy and our children’s future to bail out Europe with US taxpayer dollars. China will benefit from doing nothing to help other countries as they dump inferior products on the world. Chinese computer batteries are said to sell for half the price of American batteries but last 10% the US battery life.
German industrial production rose for the first time in three months as the debt crisis threatens to tip Germany’s large economy into recession.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Holiday consumer spending is up about 5% in the USA and all income bands predict they will purchase much more in 2012 (10 to 40% more). Yet most Americans think Obama is doing a terrible job because he does nothing that helps the American pie grow. Instead American education is run by union leftists who are trying to educate people to pay them higher teacher salaries when the teachers should instead be teaching students how to think intelligently and get off their duffs and make something of themselves. Today’s teachers inspire laziness and incompetence and give students the sense that there is no value in the American values that made America great. Today’s public schools and public employees need an education in the American work ethic so they know how to teach the lazy underclass that work is useful and grows the pie even if they have to start with minimum wage because they got a terrible education due to incompetent leftist teachers in all levels of American education. The lazy and incompetent American government workers need a haircut not a full pension when they have worked only 10 years. They often get state pensions after just 10 years and then want to retire! At least that is true in New England.
Last week
The good
Consumer Confidence Nov 56.0 up sharply from 39.8
FHFA Housing Price Index Sep +0.9% great improvement from -0.1%
Construction Spending Oct 0.8% improved from 0.2%
ISM Index Nov 52.7 good inc in manufacturing from 50.8
Pending Home Sales Oct 10.4% -great improvement from -4.60%
Chicago PMI Nov 62.6 manufacturing pick up from 58.4
Crude Inventories 11/26 3.932M inventory good for lower prices -6.219M
The Bad
Auto Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit 4.27M
Truck Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit A 5.84M
Hourly Earnings Nov -0.1% down from 0.2%
ADP Employment Change Nov 206K fewer got jobs down from 110K
Initial Claims 11/26 402K more loosing jobs from 393K
Continuing Claims 11/19 3740K more unemployed from 3691K
Productivity-Rev. Q3 2.3% down from 3.1%
New Home Sales Oct 307K down from 313K
Challenger Job Cuts Nov -12.8% unchanged 12.6%
The indifferent
Average Workweek Nov 34.3 no change from 34.3
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 120K a few more jobs created 80K amid massive layoffs
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov 140K private jobs created 104K
MBA Mortgage Index 11/26 winter slowdown from -1.2%
Unit Labor Costs Q3 -2.5% unchanged -2.4%
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep -3.6% down less than -3.80%
This Week
So far
Factory Orders in Oct, -0.4%, down significantly from last month’s +0.3%
ISM Service Sector Nov, 52.0 down from 52.9 last month
Today
Dec 7 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/03
Dec 7 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/03
Dec 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Oct
Coming
Dec 8 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/03
Dec 8 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/26
Dec 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct
Dec 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance Oct
Dec 9 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Dec
The Obama lies
Unemployment Rate Nov 8.6% Obama communist style lies say unemployment down from 9.0%. That is because Obama thinks he will not get re-elected if unemployment is greater than 9%
Market outlook December 7, 2011
Stocks still hover near recent highs. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Real estate has bottomed out but will not take off until 2013 provided Obama and his leftist supporters are all thrown out of office.
Market vector is predicting the same type of short term rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the market index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
There was tremendous cash flow into the market the last two weeks. The coming short squeeze will probably come within 60 days and it is good to take profits in stocks with good runs and buy into stocks and sectors/indexes that are low and that will benefit from a good year end run-up in sales. The sales gains will be reported in January and will probably result in the peak of this intermediate trend rally. But Obama is an economic bummer for the USA and will continue that way because he is an socialist to the very core.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom. Many are predicting a real estate come back next year.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Today Obama had one of his idiot-economists arguing against three businessmen on Squawk Box trying to claim that the bounce in 2009 was due to Obama not the bounce that every comes with every recession. Obama knows how to create corruption with his green spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is not too clever when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama manipulates the government statistics just like communists do to pretend things are getting better.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical upside resistance level now and it needs a breakout so the advance resumes and triggers a short squeeze that could rum stocks up close to previous highs of this year. That will be the time to get back into cash. Complacency has not set in at all yet. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced once over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 95% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were up last night. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.4%, and Japan up 1.7%.
European markets are up today in a range 0% to 1.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton
Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to do and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries in about 7 years. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status
European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M
This week
The good
Consumer Confidence Nov 56.0 up sharply from 39.8
FHFA Housing Price Index Sep +0.9% great improvement from -0.1%
Construction Spending Oct 0.8% improved from 0.2%
ISM Index Nov 52.7 good inc in manufacturing from 50.8
Pending Home Sales Oct 10.4% -great improvement from -4.60%
Chicago PMI Nov 62.6 manufacturing pick up from 58.4
Crude Inventories 11/26 3.932M inventory good for lower prices -6.219M
The Bad
Auto Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit 4.27M
Truck Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit A 5.84M
Hourly Earnings Nov -0.1% down from 0.2%
ADP Employment Change Nov 206K fewer got jobs down from 110K
Initial Claims 11/26 402K more loosing jobs from 393K
Continuing Claims 11/19 3740K more unemployed from 3691K
Productivity-Rev. Q3 2.3% down from 3.1%
New Home Sales Oct 307K down from 313K
Challenger Job Cuts Nov -12.8% unchanged 12.6%
The indifferent
Average Workweek Nov 34.3 no change from 34.3
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 120K a few more jobs created 80K amid massive layoffs
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov 140K private jobs created 104K
MBA Mortgage Index 11/26 winter slowdown from -1.2%
Unit Labor Costs Q3 -2.5% unchanged -2.4%
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep -3.6% down less than -3.80%
The Obama lies
Unemployment Rate Nov 8.6% Obama communist style lies say unemployment down from 9.0%. That is because Obama said he should not get re-elected if unemployment is greater than 9%
Market outlook December 2, 2011
Stocks hover near recent highs. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
There was tremendous cash flow into the market this week. The coming short squeeze will probably come within 60 days and it is good to take profits in stocks with good runs and buy into stocks and sectors/indexes that are low and that will benefit from a good year end run-up in sales.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom. Many are predicting a real estate come back next year.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Today Obama had one of his idiot-economists arguing against three businessmen on Squawk Box trying to claim that the bounce in 2009 was due to Obama not the bounce that every recession has. Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron and has to manipulate the government statistics like all communists do to pretend things are getting better.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical upside resistance level now and it needs a breakout so the advance resumes and triggers a short squeeze that could rum stocks up close to previous highs of this year. That will be the time to get back into cash. Complacency has not set in at all yet. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced once over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 95% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were up last night. China down –1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.2%, India up 2.2%, and Japan up 0.5%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.6% to 1.7% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 1% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status
European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M
This week
The good
Consumer Confidence Nov 56.0 up sharply from 39.8
FHFA Housing Price Index Sep +0.9% great improvement from -0.1%
Construction Spending Oct 0.8% improved from 0.2%
ISM Index Nov 52.7 good inc in manufacturing from 50.8
Pending Home Sales Oct 10.4% -great improvement from -4.60%
Chicago PMI Nov 62.6 manufacturing pick up from 58.4
Crude Inventories 11/26 3.932M inventory good for lower prices -6.219M
The Bad
Auto Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit 4.27M
Truck Sales Dec too bad for Obama to admit A 5.84M
Hourly Earnings Nov -0.1% down from 0.2%
ADP Employment Change Nov 206K fewer got jobs down from 110K
Initial Claims 11/26 402K more loosing jobs from 393K
Continuing Claims 11/19 3740K more unemployed from 3691K
Productivity-Rev. Q3 2.3% down from 3.1%
New Home Sales Oct 307K down from 313K
Challenger Job Cuts Nov -12.8% unchanged 12.6%
The indifferent
Average Workweek Nov 34.3 no change from 34.3
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 120K a few more jobs created 80K amid massive layoffs
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov 140K private jobs created 104K
MBA Mortgage Index 11/26 winter slowdown from -1.2%
Unit Labor Costs Q3 -2.5% unchanged -2.4%
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep -3.6% down less than -3.80%
The Obama lies
Unemployment Rate Nov 8.6% Obama communist style lies say unemployment down from 9.0%. That is because Obama said he should not get re-elected if unemployment is greater than 9%
Market outlook December 2, 2011
Stocks hover near recent highs. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
There was tremendous cash flow into the market this week. The coming short squeeze will probably come within 60 days and it is good to take profits in stocks with good runs and buy into stocks and sectors/indexes that are low and that will benefit from a good year end run-up in sales.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom. Many are predicting a real estate come back next year.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Today Obama had one of his idiot-economists arguing against three businessmen on Squawk Box trying to claim that the bounce in 2009 was due to Obama not the bounce that every recession has. Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron and has to manipulate the government statistics like all communists do to pretend things are getting better.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical upside resistance level now and it needs a breakout so the advance resumes and triggers a short squeeze that could rum stocks up close to previous highs of this year. That will be the time to get back into cash. Complacency has not set in at all yet. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced once over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 95% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were up last night. China down –1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.2%, India up 2.2%, and Japan up 0.5%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.6% to 1.7% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 1% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton
Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to do and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries in about 7 years. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status
European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
This Week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M
Market outlook November 25, 2011
Stocks hover above recent lows. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
The recent bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status
European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
This Week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M
Market outlook November 25, 2011
Stocks hover above recent lows. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
The recent bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
"Hank" Greenberg just sued the U.S. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"Hank" Greenberg, the former chief executive of American International Group Inc, just sued the U.S. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of Starr International Co. and other AIG shareholders. The lawsuits accused the Treasury Department and New York Fed of wrongly taking control of the insurer and using it as a vehicle to funnel tens of billions of dollars to AIG's trading partners, which included large U.S. and European banks. That means the Democrat Obama Administration used US taxpayer money to illegally bail out EU banks.
MF Global shortfall of organized crime payoffs could top $1.2 Billion in missing cash from customer accounts at MF Global's brokerage unit, more than double the previous estimate for the democrat fraud..
U.S. District Judge Christopher C. Conner said Hussein Obama's plan to require individual Americans to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty (a key pillar of his health-care legislation), is unconstitutional. The 53-page opinion said that the federal government did not give it the authority to compel individual citizens to purchase products against their will. The lawsuit was filed by a married couple against Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, asking that the law be overturned. The couple said they dropped their health-care coverage because of the expense was more than their monthly mortgage payments.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. President Michael C. Woodford disclosed that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. That sounds like the same socialist MOB the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Yesterday
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
Today
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
This Week
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 221, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect a rally today. The bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were stable last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.8%, and Japan down -0.6%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
MF Global shortfall of organized crime payoffs could top $1.2 Billion in missing cash from customer accounts at MF Global's brokerage unit, more than double the previous estimate for the democrat fraud..
U.S. District Judge Christopher C. Conner said Hussein Obama's plan to require individual Americans to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty (a key pillar of his health-care legislation), is unconstitutional. The 53-page opinion said that the federal government did not give it the authority to compel individual citizens to purchase products against their will. The lawsuit was filed by a married couple against Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, asking that the law be overturned. The couple said they dropped their health-care coverage because of the expense was more than their monthly mortgage payments.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. President Michael C. Woodford disclosed that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. That sounds like the same socialist MOB the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Yesterday
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
Today
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
This Week
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 221, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect a rally today. The bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were stable last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.8%, and Japan down -0.6%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Dept
Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Department.
The Republican candidates suggested that three to five government agencies are run by morons and are keeping our economy mired. The Energy Department is the worst on the list because it has really become the US Energy Starvation Department.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. (7733) President Michael C. Woodford admitted that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. Sounds like the same socialist crowd the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices continue to fall and pop the real estate bubble.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Today
Nov 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 21, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about:
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect today is an initial bear attack on the US markets possibly driving prices to this years lows again. Then we expect a bounce with the close down slightly for the day.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –2.6%, and Japan down -0.3%.
European markets are down big again today in a range –2% to –3.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are down about -1.4% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
The Republican candidates suggested that three to five government agencies are run by morons and are keeping our economy mired. The Energy Department is the worst on the list because it has really become the US Energy Starvation Department.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. (7733) President Michael C. Woodford admitted that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. Sounds like the same socialist crowd the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices continue to fall and pop the real estate bubble.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Today
Nov 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 21, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about:
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect today is an initial bear attack on the US markets possibly driving prices to this years lows again. Then we expect a bounce with the close down slightly for the day.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –2.6%, and Japan down -0.3%.
European markets are down big again today in a range –2% to –3.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are down about -1.4% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Friday, November 18, 2011
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed today, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices fall too sharply and pop the real estate bubble.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India. They face possible bankruptcy as unions demand more money and while they lose money. If they hike airline prices people will switch to better run airlines.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain and Italy got some relief from the ECB buying debt. Most European markets are new support levels. Germany declined for 5 sessions.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Gold traders and doomsday survivalists selling gold are scamming many conservative investors. Some gold owners are getting scammed when they sell gold that they inherited. They are told the weight and copper content knocks the value down. That is a lie if you are buying USA minted coins. Those dealers are bald-faced liars who prey on people who inherit gold and do not understand how it is valued.
Past Week
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Housing Starts Oct 628K down from 658K meaningless since it is not seasonally corrected and expected to decline in winter.
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Philadelphia Fed Nov 3.6 declined from 8.7 indicating a slow down…not good
Today
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 18 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We should see downside resistance soon before the advance resumes. The resistance level is about 2% lower than yesterday but it could happen intra day within the week. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –1.9%, Hong Kong down –1.7%, India down –0.6%, and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range –0.1% to –2 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 7:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed today, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices fall too sharply and pop the real estate bubble.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India. They face possible bankruptcy as unions demand more money and while they lose money. If they hike airline prices people will switch to better run airlines.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain and Italy got some relief from the ECB buying debt. Most European markets are new support levels. Germany declined for 5 sessions.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Gold traders and doomsday survivalists selling gold are scamming many conservative investors. Some gold owners are getting scammed when they sell gold that they inherited. They are told the weight and copper content knocks the value down. That is a lie if you are buying USA minted coins. Those dealers are bald-faced liars who prey on people who inherit gold and do not understand how it is valued.
Past Week
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Housing Starts Oct 628K down from 658K meaningless since it is not seasonally corrected and expected to decline in winter.
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Philadelphia Fed Nov 3.6 declined from 8.7 indicating a slow down…not good
Today
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 18 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We should see downside resistance soon before the advance resumes. The resistance level is about 2% lower than yesterday but it could happen intra day within the week. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –1.9%, Hong Kong down –1.7%, India down –0.6%, and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range –0.1% to –2 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 7:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
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