Aug 16 Fed-MSNBC economic statistics fraud becomes obvious and China has begun to phase out purchases of US debt! China is now beginning to face a credit crunch and recently cut their buying of American debt by over $40 billion per month. Obama’s QE is buying up $85 billion a month and may never end. Cutting QE would make it worse. Japan cut buying too and others will follow as the world sees that America has become a ship sinking under Obama’s welfare entitlements and that Americans are fleeing the repressive regime that is spying on and harassing Americans who historically have loved and fought for American freedom.

Reagan supporting democracy in Central America was a big scandal for the press in 1987 unlike the Obama government spying on Americans; the Obama IRS harassment of suspicious groups that like what liberty or the Founding Fathers or Patriots stood for; and the Obama government ran guns into Mexico causing over 30,000 civilian deaths. No, the liberal press wanted to impeach Reagan in 1987 for driving communists out of the jungles of Central, South America and Africa. After that attempt to impeach Reagan, Reagan went on to bring freedom to the Soviet Union and all of Eastern Europe. Finally the leftists then fell silent.

Aug 15 Baron’s and the WSJ reported that billionaire corporate raider Carl Icahn revealed that he has taken a "large position" in Apple at about $460-470/share. The 77-year-old is known for his often contentious black mail battles with big companies. Mr. Icahn now wants Apple borrow money at short term rates and buy back shares right now, likely starting around $525 a piece.   Mr. Icahn says it would send shares to $625, without taking into account any possible earnings growth. That would make him a quick 35% profit when he sells everything and leaves Apple in debt just as interest rates are beginning to rapidly rise. He says of his investment, "This is a no brainer." How is that behavior different from stock manipulation and fraud?
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/08/13/aapl-should-borrow-at-3-buy-more-shares-icahn-tells-wsj/

Aug 14 Rick on Squawk Box MSNBC is one of the few honest reporters they have and he went ballistic at the corruption and phony government statistics we get these days. Inflation is not being reported as high as it really is because they take out the high cost of living of food and energy and put in declining costs such as housing which investors benefit from but almost no consumers see. This stock market is beginning to look more like what preceded the Panic of 1987 when nothing seemed to be going right for the administration and stocks suddenly plunged 20% in its first dip due to a lack of upticks thus freezing some markets that were hitting trading limits on the way down. It was not a flash crash but still one where many investors could not even execute their orders fast enough. This is how the calm looks before the storm. A crackdown of the "Payola" corruption of the television networks is needed.
This Ronald Regan video has gone viral. Ronald Regan’s critics always claimed he was too old and senile. Yet he stood out as much brighter than the socialist alternatives and he still does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=wrRTau5jusU

Aug 12 America before Obama (ABO) was a wonderful time when immigrants with skills were lured to America by the possibility of better economic opportunity for their nurturing families. Each year, thousands of Americans now pack up and move permanently to stable coherent nations to escape Obama’s high taxes, government harassment, family/societal destruction, and the hard times that only hard working people face in America.
Obama is now creating a banana republic. People seldom go to jail for taking drugs they go to jail for pushing drugs. They get arrested for drug possession but they need to be a danger to themselves or others and have saleable quantities to go to jail because drug addicts get their money committing crimes like theft, burglary and mugging people. Obama now wants to release between 20,000 and 40,000 thieves who are in jail for pushing drugs.

They say the US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess. Now Americans leave to find better opportunity and immigrants with no education or skills come to America for quick enrolment in welfare entitlements plus free phone and texting devices that most working Americans still have not found a good reason to buy. The families of about 60% of the people on American welfare have been destroyed leaving single parent homes that are the factor that has the highest correlation with poverty, ignorance and crime in America.
http://rt.com/usa/us-tax-income-pay-244/

Last week the WSJ reported State Department statistics that showed in the first half of 2013 more Americans renounced their citizenship to leave America than recorded in the history of "America before Obama" (ABO). In those six months it was twice the number as in the previous year so the rate is still accelerating. It is in the thousands per year now. Atlas is apparently shrugging.
Last week the WSJ also reported that thousands of small-business owners have received harassing letters from the Internal Revenue Service suggesting they are underreporting their business income. It is a harbinger of a broader initiative aimed at boosting federal tax receipts with the use of fear to squeeze mom and pop corporations that are barely making a living.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323838204579003093483824248.html
U.S. and European utilities now struggle to cope with the competition caused by taxpayer subsidized renewable energy suppliers that don’t have to pay their own costs. So in addition to the US going deeper into debt, the money is wasted because the renewable energy business is not sustainable without subsidies.  
According to statistics from the US State Department, more Americans are now either working or studying overseas, which Gallup says is the largest number ever for such statistic.
http://rt.com/usa/leaving-us-america-country-289/

For some people, it is best to simply to pack up and leave.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303879604577410021186373802.html
Corporate earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Major indexes finished Friday with their worst week since June, as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.
http://www.sify.com/finance/us-stocks-futures-slip-pointing-towards-worst-week-since-june-news-art+and+culture-nijrElhggga.html

The Wall Street Journal said Friday, "Stocks start to look overvalued."
http://worldnewsandwire.com/stocks-start-to-look-overvalued/
America’s opportunity to withdraw safely from QE may already have passed and pundits may still be talking about withdrawal long after Bernanke retires. Normally there is only two ways to withdraw from flooding the world with dollars: cold turkey or bankruptcy. A series of cascading stock market declines is on the horizon as long as socialist government officials think we can spend our way out of debt and into prosperity. We have not yet seen the bottom of Obama’s growing economic depression and will not see it until welfare and immigrant entitlements are solved. Japan has not been able to end their Quantitative easing since they started it in 1990.

It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen that indicated the polarized pump and dump terminal phase of a bull market. In that phase the hedge funds select stocks that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give technical buy signals. They then dump those stocks when other investors get on board. Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in technical sell signals. That is what causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal number of stocks at new highs and new lows. Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last bear market, again when funds are very selective causing a sharp rise is certain stock while most are at new lows. That results in a polarization of the market at the end of the bear market.
Then on July 8 we pointed out that net cash was now flowing out of the stock market even though small investors were putting their money in. That is because the Obama pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being parked on the sidelines as risk increases.
It will take many years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty. Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock. The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
A 1% growth rate in Europe is the latest claim that their recession is over. China is girding itself now with cash as bank failures loom. They will have to dump USA debt to bail out their banks and that will trigger the next big increase in America’s interest rates. QE has become an impotent tool and will soon inflict an uncontrollable contraction that will last decades just as Japan experienced. The only difference is Obama and Bernanke knew about Japan’s experience when they stuck the QE knife into the American economy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel denounced tax increases as "poison" promising to remain in office for the full four-year legislative period if she wins another term.
Polish economic growth accelerated from a four-year low while Czech Republic recovered from a record- long recession in the second quarter boosted by increased demand for eastern European exports as the euro zone halted its slump.
Cathay Pacific Airways, Asia’s largest international carrier, reported cargo revenue dropped and yields declined in North Asia. The slump in world trade has become worse but that benefits the balance of trade for America which is running the largest deficit in the history of the world. The Obama administration could leave America with the highest taxes, owing more money than the debt of all the American Wars including the American Revolution, and with more Americans leaving than to find safer places to live in Asia and Central America than seeking entrance to the USA. The only thing working to reduce Obama deficits are the delays in implementing Obama programs.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost Quantitative Easing decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth. Corporate cannibalism appears like growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is one dead fish remaining. That one mouth is communism where all the data is fabricated.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline rapidly. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC has been literally openly lying about almost every statistic. The actually said initial unemployment claims were at a 4-month low when it was up 2% from the previous week!
Aug 8
Initial Claims 08/03 333K up from 326K -
Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K --
Then Monday the monthly budget increased almost 50% and they said the deficit was decreasing.
Aug 12
Treasury Budget Jul -$97.6B deficit increased from -$69.6B ---
Aug 13
Retail Sales Jul 0.2% down from 0.4%
Export Prices ex-ag. Jul 0.0% flat after -0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil Jul -0.4% dropped again from -0.3% --
Business Inventories Jun 0.0% flat from 0.1% ++
Aug 14
MBA Mortgage Index 08/10 -4.7% fell sharply from 0.2% ---
PPI Jul 0.0% erratic 0.8% -- manipulated
Core PPI Jul 0.1% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Crude Inventories 08/10 -2.812M down again -1.320M –
Aug 15
Initial Claims 08/10 320K down from 333K ++ This news was leaked out by Jim Cramer of MSNBC last week and we called him out last week as lying because the public numbers were actually poorer. This week we got the numbers he knew already last week and obvious case of government-MSNBC corruption.
Continuing Claims 08/03 2969K meaningless data 3018K
CPI Jul 0.2% erratic 0.5% -- manipulated
Core CPI Jul 0.2% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Empire Manufacturing Aug 8.6 down from 9.46 --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun -$66.9B trade deficit doubled -$27.2B ---
Industrial Production Jul 0.0% sharply lower 0.3% --
Capacity Utilization Jul 77.6% down 77.8%
Philadelphia Fed Aug 9.3 sharp drop 19.8 ---
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 59 dropped 57 --
Natural Gas Inventories 08/10 65 bcf down 96 bcf –
Housing stocks soared Thursday on an obvious leak Thursday of the government statistics released Friday. Also this week’s unemployment numbers were leaked last week when MSNBC mistakenly gave them out. Last week the unemployment news was bad and we called them out as lying. It turns out that MSNBC accidentally gave out this week’s numbers last week before they were made public. The Obama Administration is cooking the books.
Aug 16
Housing Starts Jul 896K up from 836K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Building Permits Jul 943K up from 911K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% up from 0.5% Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Unit Labor Costs Q2 1.4% up from -4.3% sloppy Government-MSNBC crony fraud
Mich Sentiment Aug 85.1 no change 85.1

The Markets Aug 16, 2013
The Obama government economic statistic fraud is getting very sloppy. Last week Cramer accidentally gave out this week’s unemployment statistics that are much better than the ones the Fed actually issued last week. We caught him on that. In the mean time "Big Brother" quibbles about the sentiment figures that some people pay $2,000000 for just one-day advance notice. Yesterday housing stocks surged and the rest of the stock market tanked obviously because they corrupt Obama government Fed gave them today’s numbers. Yesterday, Cramer also accidentally leaked that the mineral numbers were being fraudulently manipulated higher and he hesitated to push them seeing the whole market is now beginning to collapse.
A new round of layoffs at UTC and other major companies is beginning. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. It may not be a sharp drop but more like a sideways movement similar to the lost decade of Jimmy Carter in the 1970’s.
In the 1960s there was a crackdown with "Payola" corruption of the radio networks. Record companies were paying announcers and radio stations to play their records to increase sales. It is becoming increasingly obvious that favorable stock market reports on MSNBC are being bought. No announcers could be so corrupt twisting the news and financial statics on their own with no financial incentive. I can remember when Jim Cramer said the single family housing market turned up in July of 2008 almost a full business cycle before it bottomed out. Television and in particular MSNBC and certain announcers like Cramer seem to be taking money to twist the financial and perhaps even the political news. Why would the also turn a blind eye to the administration’s gun running in Mexico to get people to want government to disarm patriots and spy on them. Why do they say nothing unless it is because they are getting political payoffs? How can this inept government possibly own so many people at one company like MSNBC?
The USA has three manipulated indices with the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which also are at what looks to be the end of this bull market run-up. The broader US NYSE is more difficult to manipulate and is indicating that American industry is no better positioned than the dismal European indices which say we are in an economic malaise.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Aug 9 There is good news because Obama has proposed a “wind down” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two gigantic socialistic crony government mortgage-finance companies were privileged and run by government appointees. Private enterprise banks were run out of the business. The Bush administration had tried to cork them in 2006 but the democrat controlled congress thought the lax credit rules would increase home ownership beyond the traditional 66%. Instead, home ownership has dropped to less than 62% and credit markets froze and bankruptcies surged. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged the liar loan business to boom when private enterprise firms were vigorously prosecuted because they did not approve loans to a few credit worthy minorities who did not give sufficient proof of being credit worthy. That trumped up harassment of anyone conducting due diligence forced all levels of the RE market to drop credit standards to avoid harassment by socialists.

The liar loans quickly ballooned and worked their way into CDOs and other derivatives and insurance paper.  The discovery of worthless mortgage backed paper triggered the financial freeze-up and the current seven year recession.  The socialist Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agencies were then bailed out by the government when they failed.  The harassment of prudent RE ventures and the concentration of the mortgage business in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had made a recovery almost impossible.  The government appointees running them make fantastic salaries, get great benefits, and retire like kings.  It is good news if Obama truly ends these socialistic quasi-government institutions that made mortgage fraud a government policy. 

 

Earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current prices.

 http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 

Major indexes are on track for their worst week since June, as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.

http://www.sify.com/finance/us-stocks-futures-slip-pointing-towards-worst-week-since-june-news-art+and+culture-nijrElhggga.html

 

The Wall Street Journal today said, “Stocks start to look overvalued.”

http://worldnewsandwire.com/stocks-start-to-look-overvalued/

 

Aug 8   The Obama Quantitative Easing (QE) addiction comes with a price.  There is no such thing as a slow withdrawal or phasing out of an addiction, even the addiction of over spending.  It comes with a price, either the current slow present death of the economy failing, or sudden economic heart failure from an overdose with subsequent damaging collapse of the financial system.  The traditional free enterprise quick recovery requires that the nation bites the bullet and faces “cold turkey” in order to let non profitable business and socialist concepts fail so there can be lasting economic recovery.  Japan got addicted to socialistic quantitative easing in 1990 and has paid the price ever since then.  It is so bad that their stock market has declined ever since 1990. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

America’s opportunity to withdraw from QE may already have passed and they may still be talking about withdrawal after Bernanke retires.  Normally there is only one safe way to withdraw: cold turkey.  A series of cascading stock market declines are on the horizon as long as socialist government officials think we can spend our way out of debt and into prosperity.  We have not yet seen the bottom of Obama’s growing economic depression and will not see it until entitlements are addressed. 

 

Aug 6   Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock.  It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen which indicated the polarized pump and dump ending phase of a bull market.  In that phase the hedge funds select stocks that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give technical buy signals.  They then dump those stocks when other investors get on board.  Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in technical sell signals.  That is what causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal number of stocks at new highs and new lows.   Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last bear market.  Then on July 8 we pointed out that net cash was flowing out even though small investors were putting their money in.  That is because the Obama pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being parked on the sidelines as risk increases. 

 

We have a proprietary market cash flow analysis (MCFA) and found and fixed a problem so it can now handle long term variations in stock market volume.   It is not a service and we give no advice but share our observations from time to time just as we do for other indicators we watch, none of which are completely reliable.  It often gives a month and sometimes longer to pick a time to sell out.  And sometimes it gives very little warning at all to sell.  Often it is too quick and inaccurate picking the exact bottom.   MCFA also finds corrections that last only a year.   But the Hindenburg Omen would imply we are entering a long bear market not a short one, and both stocks and bonds are about to cascade downwards causing loss of equity and forced selling and panics.  At the same time industries that are irresponsibly leveraged with debt will collapse when they are downgraded and their 30 day debt interest rate skyrockets.

 

It will take years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty.   Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock.  The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity now exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost Quantitative Easing decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat.  The decline will accelerate and as risk grows money will flow out of the economy into shelters or cash.  Ultimately that will cause a credit squeeze, bankruptcies and possibly China’s first uncontrolled panic.  The Chinese and American governments have been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth.  Corporate cannibalism makes it look like growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow.  No one notices all the dead fish that way.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= 

 

American Economy

It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, so MSNBC/Pravda this week has literally been openly lying and actually said initial claims were at a 4 month low when it was up 2% from last week!

 

Aug 5

ISM Services Jul 56.0 53.1 53.2 52.2 -

 

Aug 6

Trade Balance Jun -$34.2B trading deficit continues -$45.0B --

JOLTS - Job Openings Jun 3.936M flat and part time increasing  3.828M  --

 

Aug 7

MBA Mortgage Index 08/03 0.2% stagnant or worse -3.7% - -

Crude Inventories 08/03 -1.320M NA NA 0.431M -

Consumer Credit Jun $13.8B declined from $19.6B --

 

Aug 8

 Initial Claims 08/03 333K up from 326K -

Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K  --

Pravda/MSNBC was blatantly lying about these statistics this morning.

Natural Gas Inventories 08/03 96 bcf up from 59 bcf +

 

The Markets Aug 9, 2013

The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

 

The broader US indices like the NYSE that are difficult to manipulate are saying American industry is no better positioned than the dismal European indices.  The USA has three manipulated indices with the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which are at what looks to be the end of this bull market.  The NYSE is a broader and hence more difficult American index to manipulate. 

 

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.

 

 World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Aug 2 Privacy is at risk not just from the government. A new study from app analysis firm Appthority finds 95% of top free applications spy on users and can leak private Data. Such activity could be used to plant routines to shut down communication during a crisis similar to how Iranian nuclear centrifuges were sabotaged. It is conceivable that home and business security systems could also then be hacked and sabotaged allowing access to other equipment, assets, and files. It is conceivable that the Obama government could also exploit these private security breaches.

UPS CEO Scott Davis weighed in on the state of the U.S. economy Thursday saying that a lack of clarity on fiscal and tax policy from Washington, D.C. is still crippling the economy.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Thursday, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi suggested the euro region is past the worst after euro-area manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in July for the first time in two years.

U.S. crude oil prices surged 2.8% on Thursday with no significant increase in demand. Banks are now speculating with investments in materials inventories as new tax avoidance loopholes are exploited.

While the Obama Depression started with a sharp market drop the day after he was elected in 2008 and has now gone on for five years the economic damage of socialism has advanced even faster in Western Europe with the exception of Germany and Switzerland.

The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell formation after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Kenya is one of the strongest socialist countries in Africa and the situation is far worse. Kenya now has little room left to stimulate the economy further by cutting interest rates further this year as the inflation outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy further deteriorates, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said Monday. The benchmark interest rate has been cut by 9.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began last year and sits at 8.5 percent this month. "There is very little room if any left for more monetary easing because inflation is already picking up," Rotich said in an interview today in the capital, Nairobi. Annual inflation is already at 4.9 during the recession according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. New taxes only fan inflation, according to Deloitte.

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy
Jul 29
Pending Home Sales Jun -0.4% down sharply from 6.7% ----

Jul 30
Case-Shiller 20-city Index May 12.2% virtually unchanged from 12.1% -

Consumer Confidence Jul 80.3 down from 81.4 --

Jul 31
MBA Mortgage Index 07/27 -3.7% sharply lower from -1.2% --

ADP Employment Change Jul 200K up from188K --

GDP-Adv. Q2 1.7% -down from 1.8% -

Employment (*US labor) Cost Index Q2 0.5% inc from 0.3% --

Chicago PMI Jul 52.3 improved drom 51.6 +

Crude Inventories 07/27 0.431M improved from -2.825M +

FOMC Rate Decision Jul 0.25% 0no change from 0.25%

Aug 1
Challenger Job Cuts Jul 2.3% down from 4.8% +

Initial Claims 07/27 326K down from 343K +

Continuing Claims 07/20 2951K down from 2997K +

ISM Index Jul 55.4 up from 50.9 ++

Construction Spending Jun -0.6% down sharply from 0.5% ----

Natural Gas Inventories 07/27 59 bcf up from 41 bcf +

Aug 2
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 162K declinedfrom 195K ---

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 161K down sharply from 202K ---

Unemployment Rate Jul 7.4% unchanged other than by excclusion of data 7.6% -

Hourly Earnings Jul fell -0.1% -

Average Workweek Jul 34.4 down from 34.5 -

Personal Income Jun 0.3% down from 0.5%

Personal Spending Jun 0.5% up from 0.3%

PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.2% up from0.1% -

Factory Orders Jun 1.5% down from 2.1% --

The Markets Aug 2, 2013
The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

The broader US indices that are difficult to manipulate are no better positioned than the dismal European indices. The USA has three manipulated indices the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which is quoted now at what looks to be the end of this bull market. The NYSE is a broader and hence more difficult American index to manipulate.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 26: Six out of ten American doctors say they will retire when the Unaffordable Care Act takes effect. The percentage of American students training in American university medical schools has dropped to 10%. However medical students from India, Russia, and Bangladesh do not mind it if a government bureaucrat in Washington making six figures dictates how they must treat patients and limits how much they can earn. Currently many hospitals are opting out and shutting down in large cities especially Christian hospitals. Charity is being replaced everywhere by entitlements on the low end and clinics will replace individual doctors on the high end. In Europe there is nothing left in the middle. You have entitlements in European hospitals and you pay for service in clinics. A typical American tourist in Finland will first seek a clinic or go to the hospital, say they are an American tourist and with a valid credit card and they get sent upstairs to get the help they need. If in an accident in France and they tell the police they are American the police normally automatically send Americans to the clinics. Under socialism the middle class slowly disappears. In France doctors get paid about as much as an average engineer which is half what they earn in America. There French doctors belong to a union and must disclose in the local newspapers a week before they plan to go on strike.

In the USSR in the early 1990’s we knew a head doctor in a small city who in the best of times made less than $40 per month and had cars but no gasoline to use them.  They were “privileged” and were told when a truck of raw vegetables would be dumped in a local warehouse in the middle of the night so the “privileged” could get some fresh turnips and other vegetables.  Doctors and engineers were trying to get out of the USSR and were willing to do any kind of work if they could.   Before Obama, America attracted the hardest working people from around the world and they initially waited at tables and cleaned houses and told us how bad socialism is.  Now American welfare is what attracts the most immigrants and they tell us how hard it is to find work here and refuse to work for the minimum wage when welfare or unemployment are options.  Today many have children just for the sake of the extra welfare they can get, and their children learn disrespect of teachers and authority figures.  The most notorious is “Octomom” and after already having six children on welfare, California paid for her fertility treatments so she could have eight more on welfare.  Search on Octomom to see just how irresponsible the American welfare system has become and why illegal immigrants are flocking to our shores.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadya_Suleman

 

The U.S. filed criminal charges Thursday against SAC Capital in the biggest blow yet to one of the biggest stock manipulation and insider trading empires. 

 

July 25:  Investors who are cashing out of bonds are not plunging into stocks now as the manipulators hoped and said they would.   The WSJ reported Thursday that former bond holders are buying money market mutual funds like they did in the late 1970’s when the stock market plummeted, gold soared, and money market rates topped 16% annual interest.  This means bond holders are not foolish enough to jump into the over extended stock market built on what amounts to investment cannibalism.  Investment cannibalism (mergers and acquisitions, M&A) occurs when the stock market (i.e. general economy) is not growing but the DJI and other easily manipulated stock indexes continue to rise because those carefully selected stocks take market share from the market as a whole through mergers and acquisitions that leave the economy and total stock market income stagnant and garner multiples that imply prosperity.  The Hindenburg Omen which we described June 11, 26, and July 17, reflects this polarization of the stock market when the select DJI and other index stocks distort the peaking market with M&A and resulting market share concentration.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323971204578625900935618178.html

 

And as far as Obama/Bernanke and QE3 are concerned their methods had been implemented by Japan since 1990 and have failed miserably.  QE3 is economic addiction to debt by the deliberate government manipulation of the treasury markets to drop national interest rates to allow higher lethal doses of debt leading as it did with Greece and then to a lethal overdose of debt that ultimately leads to bankruptcy such as Cyprus and Detroit are experiencing now.  Japan’s stock market is lower today in American dollars than it was in 1990.

 

The market manipulators pick and chose stocks to manipulate, stocks like Netflix, HP, Microsoft, and Apple which have had their day and continue to be the favorites of a few and can catch fire when pumped, and then get dumped again.  The pumping and dumping eventually shows up in the market polarization that then gives the classic Hindenburg Omen.  However, that Omen is a caution that manipulation is going on it is not the market peak itself.  It occurred in the run-up in August 2010 after the stock market bottomed in 2009.  So in that case it said it was time to buy because the hedge funds were loading up on the index stocks not to intentionally manipulate the index but because the stocks in the index are selected to be the safest and most likely to advance.  And it is because they are among the best that they outperform the stock market.  And because they outperform they are quoted by the market manipulators to pretend the market can still rise even after the average stock and the economy have stagnated.  So now you see the whole cycle.   

 

The last market bottom was in March 2009.  The market blowout could be the end to this business cycle with the 4.5 year advance.  The previous advance was 5.5 years but the average advance is less than 4 years.  The average decline at the end of a business cycle is about a year and is -25% to -60%.  It is also possible that if significant real economic improvement materializes now there could be a smaller 20%-30%.   The last collapse in 2008 was not due to high FED rates but rather it was high Bush Administration War debt and monetized US real estate fraud with the creation of Liar Loan derivatives (tranches) that were marketed world-wide.  This bear market collapse may be attributed to welfare- food stamp -student loan-and other entitlement fraud, plus the collapse of in-debt cities and states due to a collapse in the municipal bond market that bond holders are now just beginning to abandon.

 

July 23: A sharp crack appeared in the edifice of stock market manipulation yesterday.  Stock market manipulators suppressed the reporting of the Dow Jones Transportation Average which plunged 0.95% while the other 30 Dow Stocks were still supported.  Transportation revenue has been going nowhere since the Obama Depression began.  The advances in the markets have been based on the few companies in the averages cannibalizing the companies that are not followed.  The Dow Jones Transportation average has begun to straddle and cross below its 50 day moving average support line.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJT&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e50&a=m26-12-9&c=

 

Prior to 1963 the vast majority of financial aid went to reward qualified students who had worked hard and demonstrated a competence and an ability to complete college.  Scholarships and grants were then a reward to motivate students to study harder.  Today under the advance of socialist professors and unions in our educational system, education does not reward students who work hard.  The healthy two parent families that pay most of the USA taxes and raise the most competent children are penalized since their children get no recognition for their hard work.   The priorities of universities however are different from those of the Obama socialized educational system where teachers and students are rewarded on Karl Marx’s basis of need not competency.  Federal Pell grants, which must be paid back specifically, target students who are not committed and they ignore better-qualified students.  Fewer than 50% of these students typically finish college.  The money is therefore used for half these students to brag and party and the problem of dropping out due to pregnancy is increasing.  Wedlock and welfare affects a significant portion of these students.  Since those grants are government backed loans the universities are willing to loan more on the basis of need rather than likelihood of a successful completion because the taxpayer is hammered not the college. This year, 63 percent of applying families earning less than $35,000 a year received an average of $6,170 in such grants.    Only 19 percent went to middle income families who normally finish college and they each received a smaller amount.  College scholarships, though, were given based on anticipated student successful completion rate because they invest in the students who are likely to complete college and pay back more in donations from their successful careers.  Thirty-five percent of low-income families got an average of $7,237 in scholarships, while 36 percent of better prepared students got an average of $10,213 in scholarships. Sixty nine percent of the scholarships for investment in these students come from the schools themselves rather than nonprofit or public sources.  This confirms the results of a recent study by the New America Foundation that found that schools are increasingly using aid to lure more intellectually qualified students rather than targeting those most in need as pure socialism requires.  So better prepared and more committed students and parents are still getting a helping hand because they are expected to still pay back everything plus more in future donations to their alma mater.  That makes the socialists who have infiltrated the American educational system very unhappy.

 

July 23: Yesterday's sell off in Yahoo (YHOO) has smart money saying that now is the time to sell holdings. Dan Loeb decided to sell two-thirds of his holdings affirming the smart money is taking profits now while they still can. Now no one will notice when he sells the rest and the pundits pretend it is only YHOO that is maxed out in price.

 

In anticipation of weak sales, US Treasuries fell in advance of the coming sale of $35 billion of two- year notes. A growing number of economists surveyed by Bloomberg speculate the Federal Reserve will trim the Fed’s monthly bond buying to $65 billion from the current pace of $85 billion by this September.

 

July 22: The WSJ reported that the Group of 20 nations agreed to place growth before austerity amid mounting fears that the global recovery remains perilously weak, unstable, and uneven. The long-anticipated acceleration in the U.S. economy was just more disappointing economic and corporate-earnings reports that have dashed the last hopes that the U.S. was at last entering a phase of solid, self-sustaining growth. Economists are predicting no rebound yet but continued unemployment, higher prices and higher interest rates putting severe cost pressure on the corporations that became highly leveraged when loans were cheap. Many on Squawk now predict a sharp drop in stock and bond prices as high debt is shed. The consensus this morning is it will be after Labor Day but we have already gotten a sell signal July 8 and that normally gives no more than a single month or less warning.

 

There also are signs that consumers—whose spending has helped prop up the economy for much of the past year—are beginning to tighten their belts. Retail sales grew a paltry 0.4% in June, Commerce Department figures showed, and would have been even worse if higher gasoline prices hadn't forced drivers to spend more at the pump.

 

The Wall Street Journal reported Holder-Obama administration’s U.S. Marshals Service has lost track of at least 2,000 encrypted two-way radios worth millions of dollars and an extreme security risk. The problem was first reported in 2011 and has continued ever since. How many thefts and for how long they have been going on have not even been determined yet. The WSJ quoted a 2011 presentation by the agency's Office of Strategic Technology saying, "It is apparent that negligence and incompetence has resulted in a grievous mismanagement of millions of dollars of USMS property," This follows the Holder-Obama administration discovered harassing political dissidents with IRS delays and audits and taping the phones and computers of journalists and apparently every American citizen. That is because the Holder-Obama administration does not want to single out terrorists because only Christians and White Anglo Saxon Protestants are responsible for the American Constitution, American freedom from the tyranny of the socialist mobs. It is very difficult for the lazy and incompetent to tear down American rights to the fruits of American citizen’s labor and intellect. It has denied the Holder-Obama desire for equality: i.e. equality of poverty under socialism.

 

 Monday, Howard Dean said on Squawk Box that there is nothing wrong with state and city worker unions forcing Republicans and Independents to pay union dues used in union contributions to buy the votes of corrupt politicians who then give the corrupt unions the pay, vacations, and benefits that are now bankrupting our cities and states.

Howard Dean said that was OK because it is no different than corrupt crony capitalism where the corrupt government administrators give contracts and bailouts to corrupt ex-politicians administrators in private companies that then funnel political contributions back to the campaigns of the corrupt politicians. He says if socialist crony business is good so is crony socialist labor.  That is how corrupt the national head of an American political party has become.  The corrupt believe one evil counterbalances the other.

 

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

 http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 

Emerging stocks fall as commodities drop.

 

Emerging-market stocks dropped for a second day and currencies weakened as commodities declined and investors weighed prospects for an end to Federal Reserve stimulus. India’s benchmark index slid to a two-week low.

Bloomberg headline: Jobless Parisians Mean Fewer Peugeots in Slumping France

 

 The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

 The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%

 

5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 American Economy

 Jul 22

 Existing Home Sales June plummeted 2% to 5.08M from 5.18M----

 Jul 23

 FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.7% unch 0.7% +

Jul 24

MBA Mortgage Index 07/20 -1.2% down again after -2.6% ---

New Home Sales Jun 497K up from 476K competing with current abandoned housing ---

Crude Inventories 07/20 -2.825M down again -6.902M  -

Initial Jobless claims rose by 2% to 343,000 last week.

Continuing Claims 07/13 2997K down from 3114K

Durable Orders Jun 4.2% down from 5.2% ---

Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.0% down from 1.0% --

Natural Gas Inventories 07/20 41 bcf down from 58 bcf  -

 

The Markets July 26, 2013

The markets now teeter at the highs.

 

The market highs can no longer be sustained and the smart money is quietly rotating out of the market on higher volume than is going into the market.  We see increasing outflow.  When everyone runs for the exit as we estimate will occur in the next few weeks it will not be a pretty sight.  The real question will be if any of the funds break the dollar or if interest rates abruptly rise.  Gold and silver prices are rising again.

 

 We estimate more than 2% of investor cash has flowed out of the market since May and that the highs for this year will all have been established by

 

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.  This is a blog and presents publicly reported information, observations and opinions only and no advice.

 

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.

 http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

 http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 19 Corrupt politicians and corrupt unions pick the pockets of the citizens of Detroit taxpayers and the hard working retirees who buy the municipal bonds that support the city. Arbitration is the source of the corruption. Corruption is inevitable when the politicians pick the arbitrators and the unions pick the politicians. Detroit sought protection for the Motor City under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code to deal with more than $18 billion in debt and long-term obligations. Will a complete bailout with the unions coming up whole be the Obama solution and the Detroit private debt holders losing everything just as they did with Obama’s GM bailout. If that is the case municipal bond holders will have to re-evaluate risks and financial markets and the fed will see interest rates rising two or three times the current projections.

July 18 The picture the Federal Reserve painted in its beige book snapshot of the economy indicates the economy continues to be an engine running on about half of its cylinders. That's better than it was in 2010, but it expects growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, and federal budget cuts slash the growth that housing and cars. The housing market and car sales were the only sectors improving but now higher interest rates are taking its toll.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/17/july-beige-book-analysis/2525043/
The US corporations that benefited from China’s growth are now being hurt. Two years ago, Nike was so bullish on China it predicted sales there would double in four years. But China sales continues to fall the past five quarters.
Intel profit tumbled 29% on PC sales slump. IBM did not make estimates and revenue growth dropped to only 3%’
The residential real-estate market suffered a setback in June as housing starts fell to the lowest level in almost a year, curbing U.S. economic growth last quarter.
　
July 17 James S. Chanos today predicted the statistical reversion to the mean in stock values. He said that the market and individual stocks such as his latest CAT warning and his other short recommendations foe Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), while making negative comments about Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Herbalife (NYSE: HLF). James S. Chanos said the US stock market has nowhere to go but down now because the stocks are at their historic highs for revenues and financial metrics. Also he pointed out how companies such as CAT had acquired other companies and written their values down so negatively that even if the did not work out the assets would make CAT look good. James S. Chanos said American companies that benefited from China’s building boom would be hurt by China’s decline. CAT dropped continuously while he talked and was down 1.84% by the time that he had finished his presentation.
Tesla shares, which soared to a new all-time high earlier this week had the biggest one-day drop Tuesday that the stock has seen since January 2012. The hedge funds have finished their game of hyping their wares about the "booming" Obama economy and pumping up the valuation of stocks after they have bought in. That plunge in Tesla was the big investors pulling the plug one little known non-index stock at a time so that the DJI and other carefully watched indices do not signal the bear market until most of the little known stocks take a big hit.

Higher interest rates increase the cost of doing business and hurt the stock market. So business income drops as rates rise plus you get the double whammy of bonds and especially dividend paying stocks competing with regular stocks. Note that Gold prices only peaked in 1981 when interest rates peaked at 21%. Money Market CDs gave you 16% risk free interest at that time. That is what is coming and gold prices have a long way to rise. See:   http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TB3MS/
　

The broader NYSE is in agreement with all the European stock markets and they tell us the welfare state with it free wheeling spending like QE3 is killing the economies of the western world. The FTSE rose just as the NYSE and is also overpriced. Select just the last year and you see the second shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal is forming just like it is for the NYSE. The only thing different is we got the sell signal in time to get out on the rise of the second shoulder. When these markets drop it will be sudden and happening all around the world. For many small investors they will be caught off guard. The FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007 just like the NYSE and other broad market indexes. The DJI is an average of 30 stocks and is far too easy to manipulate.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=%5Eftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Only manipulated indexes (such as the DJI which has 30 carefully selected stocks) are not warning that this run-up in prices is over. And sometimes they won’t even let you see "ALL" the data. It is manipulated at least two ways. First the stocks in the index tend to be added when they are in the rapid growth stage and removed when they reach the mature stage. The second way is they are considered safe stocks and get high recommendations that are self fulfilling because they are then well known, trusted and heavily bought.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

American Economy
Jul 15
Retail Sales Jun 0.4% plummeted from 0.6% ---
Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.0% declined again from 0.3% --
Empire Manufacturing Jul 9.46 still below 10—was worse last time 7.8 –

Jul 16
Business Inventories May 0.1% still growing too much, was worse 0.3% ---
CPI Jun 0.5% at a 6% annual rate up from 0.1% or a 1.2% annual rate –
QE@ is supposed to phase out when inflation hits 2.5%
Core CPI Jun 0.2% same 0.2% still a 2.4% annual rate --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows May -$27.2B investment money is leaving the USA -$37.3B ---
Industrial Production Jun 0.3% up from 0.0% +
Capacity Utilization Jun 77.8% flat lined 77.6%
NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 57 was 52 a fluctuation

Jul 17
MBA Mortgage Index 07/13 -2.6% again after -4.0% ----
Housing Starts Jun 836K down from 928K
Building Permits Jun 911K low but slight uptick from 985K -
Crude Inventories 07/13 -6.902M fell again -9.874M ----

Jul 18
Initial Claims 07/13 334K down from 358K ++
Continuing Claims 07/06 3114K up from 2977K ---
Philadelphia Fed Jul 19.8 N.G. statistical outlier from 12.5
Leading Indicators Jun 0.0% down from 0.1% --
Natural Gas Inventories 07/13 58 bcf down from 82 bcf

The Markets July 19, 2013
Today the NYSE collided with its May high but is still 4% below the 2007 high. We estimate 2% of investor cash has flowed out of the market since May.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.  We offer just information and no advice.
The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 12,2013 The amount of USA debt that QE3 puts on the Fed’s balance sheet pales in comparison to the enormous USA debt banks hold. Currently the bank regulators are planning to double the US bank’s reserve requirements which will mean the amount banks can loan will be cut in half. It could be an enormous credit crunch and interest rates will surge even more than the effects of ending QE. The Fed already plans to let rates drift higher and approximately twice as fast as seen in the 1950’s. If a bond pays out 5% per year you get your money back within 20 years so you would be willing to buy stocks with PE’s of 20. If the rate is 10% it takes only 10 years or a PE of ~10. And that higher rates are higher competition and that is why Jim Cramer is confused and does not understand why PE ratios are not going to rise now.

Higher interest rates hurt the stock market and also increase the cost of doing business. So business income drops as rates rise plus you get the double whammy of bonds competing with stocks and especially dividend paying stocks. Note that Gold prices only peaked in 1981 when interest rates and inflation peaked. Gold prices have a long way to rise. See:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TB3MS/

July 11, 2013 U.S. stocks rose and bond yields fell today as Bernanke’s comments reassured investors that the days of loose U.S. monetary policy aren’t over. Bernanke let it be known that the FED would determine its actions from real data not the stuff the administration shovels out through the media. Greenspan earlier had said that the markets would dictate rates not Bernanke. Then on that queue the average U.S. rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was reported today to have risen to 4.51 percent, a two-year high. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The broader NYSE is in agreement with all the European stock markets and they tell us the welfare state with it free wheeling spending like QE3 is killing the economies of the western world.

FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=%5Eftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Only manipulated indexes (such as the DJI which has 30 carefully selected stocks) are not warning that this run-up in prices is over. And sometimes they won’t even let you see "ALL" the data. It is manipulated at least two ways. First the stocks in the index tend to be added when they are in the rapid growth stage and removed when they reach the mature stage. The second way is they are considered safe stocks and get high recommendations that are self fulfilling because they are then well known, trusted and heavily bought.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

July 10, 2013 Less than three months ago MSNBC Pravda told investors that reports REITs could threaten U.S. financial stability were misleading and spun it as though higher bond rates were good when in fact they were due to selling of bond assets. Since then shares of the companies, which borrowed money to make credit market bets, have dropped about 19 percent but the value of their assets has plunged much more as Federal Reserve signaled plans to slow quantitative easing and then liquidate their balance sheets of debt. Now funds are forced to continually sell to maintain the amount of borrowing relative to their net worth. This is only beginning to sink in to the owners of the bonds who happen to be the most risk intolerant of all investors. The panic has not yet begun and the stock market has indicated it is not at a major cyclic resistance level.

High interest rates will ravage the stock market and destroy bond values. Money market bank accounts will become the safe haven for risk intolerant investors as they were at the end of the Jimmy Carter fiasco.

July 8, 2013 Today, Monday July 8, 2012 we got an official stock market sell signal. It was similar to the ones we had in April of 2010 and August of 2011. We estimate that the next good buying point is at lease 8% lower than the July 2 market level and more likely 15% lower. May 21 was probably the high for this year and we are currently about 5% lower than that.   We offer opinion and publicly reported information  only and no advice.  The problem with all information and predictions is that the socialist running our government continuously produces misinformation (they tell lies or make irrelevant comparisons) because socialists are schooled highwaymen, and looters who want to take the money from productive people. It works for about 50 years until as Winston Churchill pointed out the socialists achieve equality of poverty. Then the tyranny of the looter democracy collapses and free enterprise re-emerges as it did in Eastern Europe in 1989. Sometimes the cycle takes 4000 years as it did for China.

Our computations indicate that virtually roughly 40% of the cash that flowed out of the market from 7-19-07 to the 3-9-09 bottom flowed back in by the recovery high of 4-23-10. By 7-6-10 roughly half the money that flowed in at the bottom flowed back out and we were then down roughly 75% of the original outflow from the peak. By 5-2-11 we rallied and were only down only about 50% of the cash of the original outflow that ended 3-9-09. But at the end of July 2011 to about 10-2-11 all the cash that flowed in with the premature announcements of recovery had flowed back out and the cash invested was back down to the 3-0-09 level. That was an excellent time to get 100% into the market. By 5-21-13 half the money that was out of the market on 3-9-09 and again out on 10-2-11 was back in. That being said it appears half the money that left the market since 7-19-07 appears to be used in timing the market and the other half are out completely or have possibly lost virtually everything and so 50% of the cash is being timed in and out and 50% of the cash lost appears lost permanently and will require a new generation of investors to recover. The recent market decline was on a movement of about 25% of the active cash flow that is being used for timing or in other words 25% of the 50% used in recent market timing. Some of that was recovered last week but the market timers will likely sell off soon and we predict the NYSE decline from the recent high could exceed 20% in average market index price if all if all the market timers pull out.

A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. 40 million indigents are about to get all the free heath welfare they can take for nothing. The President announced young employees would not be forced to buy unneeded health coverage that was supposed to force the young to keep the plan solvent. On the other hand there is no system in place to verify the identity of the 40 million legal indigents and keep the other 20 million illegal immigrants and other unqualified indigents from busting the budget. In England and Scandinavia the line of welfare people in waiting rooms is so long it takes two or three hours to see a Doctor. It has become so bad in socialist European countries that professionals like lawyers and doctors have unionized because the labor unions seem to own the streets and the government.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Italian 10-year bond yields 0.02 percentage point, to 4.47 percent Wednesday. That caused the bond value of the 4.5 percent security due in May 2023 to declined 1.25 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 100.63. The yield on similar-maturity Spanish bonds climbed one basis point to 4.82 percent, while Portugal’s 10-year rate increased 13 basis points to 6.90 percent.
The report from the General Administration of Customs in Beijing showed that China’s exports fell 3.1 percent and imports dropped 0.7 percent in June from a year earlier. Both declines are adding to concerns that the slowdown in China is intensifying amid weakness in both external and domestic demand as the government begins restructuring the banking system that is out of control with high risk loans from "government favored" corrupt borrowers who then loan to newly budding crime organizations where the money is laundered and sent overseas. A crackdown on corruption is looming.
Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy
Jul 8
Consumer Credit May $19.6B up from $11.1B
Jul 10
MBA Mortgage Index 07/06 -4.0% down again -11.7% ----
Wholesale Inventories May -0.5% declined from 0.2% ++
Crude Inventories 07/06 -9.874M decreased again -10.347M –
Jul 11
Initial Unemployment Claims 07/06 360K rose sharply from 343K ---
Continuing Claims 06/29 2977K also up sharply from 2933K ---
Export Prices ex-ag. Jun -0.2% declined again after -0.7% -
Import Prices ex-oil Jun -0.3% declined again after -0.3% +
Natural Gas Inventories 07/06 82 bcf improved slightly from 72 bcf
Treasury Budget Jun $116.5B increased with tax receipts from a deficit rate of -$59.7B -
Jul 12
PPI Jun 0.8% o r 9.6% per year, up from 0.5% or 6% per year. That is well over the Fed requirement for ending QE3-----
Core PPI Jun 0.2% does not make much sense again 0.1% -
Mich. Sentiment Jul 83.9 down from 84.1 --

The Markets July 12, 2013
The manipulated stock indexes are even beginning to tread water now. When was the last time MSNBC/Pravda dared show any broad average exchange index like the NYSE? They have not because the broad American indices are just like the broad European indexes and show that the American stock markets stalled out at the same levels they had in years 2000 and 2007.   That said, it means that investors today have gained nothing since the year 2000 because dividends only covered their costs.  And even though the American manipulated market indicators hit their 2000 and 2007 highs, our cash flow analysis indicates there is no more money in the market than there was in the early summer two years ago before the sharp August 2011 decline. Thursday’s opening was only one example of how it is done. To move the market sharply higher the double the share bought at the opening and get a 1% gap-up gain at very little cost. Then as others join in they very slowly sell so that most of the gain is kept for the day and the profit and are back into cash and ready to use the same game again on good news. Sometimes however they get so far from reality the market takes over and the manipulators leave it alone. Ultimately there is a reckoning day for all market manipulation and Greenspan said the market not Bernanke will put an end to QE3+.

We anticipate the current decline started in the last month will be doubled or tripled this summer. The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. 2-yr bonds are about as much as investors should risk.

The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=target

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 5, 2013 Do you long for a trickle down free enterprise economy as opposed to the current government orchestrated fat crony capitalist economy? Under the Obama administration the stock market soared but only the hedge fund hogs profited by buying one market segment at a time and then abandoning them to slow moving pension funds that got on board at the peaks. Under the Obama administration the wealthiest 7% are now 26% richer and the other 93% are 6% poorer. The IRS lady in charge of harassing conservatives and organizations with names that included words like liberty was paid a salary alone of $180,000 per year and she refused to testify on the grounds that it might incriminate her. Obama has made about 6 cronies millionaires by appointing cronies as GM presidents to boost their resumes and make them rich. But there are fewer people employed today in full time jobs than when the socialists were elected. And while civilization for centuries favored the core family of a mother and father, today the dysfunctional octomom family is favored and the dysfunctional family is producing more crime, porn, and poverty. America is in more danger now of rotting from the core than being attacked by communists. Even Putin is worried about the fate of the world’s last peacekeeper.

July 3
A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. The American markets have been limited now on the up side and cash is being removed from the market. We estimate that the next good buying point is at lease 8% lower than the July 2 market level and more likely 15% lower. May 21 was probably the high for this year and we are currently about 5% lower than that. The problem is that the socialist running our government continuously produces misinformation (they tell lies or make irrelevant comparisons) because socialists are schooled highwaymen, and looters who want to take the money from productive people. It works for about 50 years until as Winston Churchill pointed out the socialists achieve equality of poverty. Then the tyranny of the looter democracy collapses and free enterprise re-emerges as it did in Eastern Europe in 1989. Sometimes the cycle takes 4000 years as it did for China.
Hitler and Stalin were hateful humans who held democratic elections and always won democratically. That is what the American Founders warned us could be the "tyranny of democracy" that exists under the socialist exploiters of creative and productive people. Socialism destroys free enterprise when looters first invade corporations and their looting skills and government corruption provides the connections needed to loot the nation through the use the government contracts, spying, and insider information. That is the crony capitalist stage of the downfall of free enterprise. The socialists become the heads of corporations and contribute heavily to other socialist political campaigns just as Bloomberg, Soros and other prominent socialist do. That gets them access to special government treatment, information, contracts, and government harassment of honest people who survive that long.

The Supreme Court’s decision July 2 to uphold the California governor’s veto of a popular referendum which was a re-affirmation of the social contract of marriage marks the end of the hope of American free enterprise and compassion ever bailing out our allies’ much less fallen future National and International socialist governments. It marks the end of the incentive for American parents had to bond in the interest of a stable family raising intelligent, compassionate, and confident children who are willing to take risks to make the world better. The breakdown of the family in the inner cities has created a generation of uneducated disadvantaged children and that will now grow more rapidly. It comes on the heels of former Cuban refugee supporters of free enterprise who in the last election sided with the socialist crony capitalist looters and joined in support of illegal immigrants.
Every educated intelligent person knows that the stock market becomes irrelevant under socialism because the government makes all the decisions. When we visited Eastern Europe in 1991 we discovered that while government buildings were maintained the living quarters of people had not even been painted for 50 years and people did not have oranges to eat for about 10 years before the collapse. All of the cities and towns in Eastern Europe looked like slums. In the Soviet Union trucks would arrive at appointed buildings and drive inside their garages in the middle of the night so that local government officials could get turnips and basic foods that the other local people never saw. The Berlin Wall fell because the East Germans were literally starving to death and could no longer be placated with government disinformation and shallow promises.
A jump in job cuts in the computer and education sectors drove an increase in layoffs at U.S. firms in June.
The private sector added only 188K jobs in June but normal American free enterprise used to provide almost 1 million new jobs a month. The percentage of Americans working or owning a home has declined under the socialist Obama administration. The socialist corporate looters have infiltrated the health care and alternative energy sectors and their stocks are about 200% overpriced. It was announced last week that one looter in the Obama health care sector will get a $150,000,000 pension when he retires after 20 years work. That is three times higher than the previous highest pension in the history of America.
July 2
When the stock market is rising the 65-day moving average tends to be the lowest level where the market bounces to rise once again. When a market is in decline the 65 day moving average tends to be the highest level where the market hits and bounces down to resume the decline. When you switch from to the other you know the market has reversed. If you look at the market averages shown in the Wall street journal and Barons this week you see that the 65 day moving average says we have begun a bear stock market usually of one to two months and up to 20 to 25% total decline. The markets are already down about 8% but the final leg of the decline is the steepest. This could be just a decline in a one year upward cycle. But it could also be a four or more year bear market, the last one of which in 2008 involved a 55% drop. We are now five years into this bull market and it is getting long-in-tooth (a very old bull market). Four years up and one down is about the average business cycle since WWII.
High interest rates will hurt the stock market and destroy bond values so a maximum of 2-yr bond life is advisable. We believe Obama is even more incompetent than Jimmy Carter was and Jimmy carter gave us a misery index that hit about 24% (inflation rate plus unemployment). The Money Market paid small investors 16% interest and gold had risen from $60 to $1000 by the time Reagan defeated Carter.
The world’s Fed bankers have just two options. The world can continue to have the recession like Japan has had since 1990 with their experiment with socialism. Or governments can bite the bullet and let interest rates rise making debt expensive and have a recovery like the Union of 1989 liberated East Germany with 1945 liberated West Germany unleashed when they dropped socialism in favor of governments that are republics not dictatorships of the majority. Even China has seen the benefits of private enterprise which requires freedom and is stifled by government bureaucracies. China still has a tyranny of the majority but free enterprise is growing while the socialist government has shrinking influence. China has had 4000 years of government tyranny and still has the option of free enterprise and prosperity. But if we are going to have a free enterprise recovery we need to end QE3 and pay down the socialist welfare debt. Therefore by definition gold which is worthless under socialism will rise in price as worthless socialist money declines if the world shifts to free enterprise and prosperity.
It is fashionable argue against the use of market timing and the hawkers of worthless or overpriced investments hate it when investors say prices are historically high vs. the corporate/economic fundamentals. Those people who always say buy "Know nothing" said Jim Cramer in 2008 when it was already 25% too late to bail out. But now with prices much higher they all say stay in, don't sell, and don’t take profits because that is called market timing. The hawkers think it is ok to be wiped out for one reason; their salaries depend on investors buying. Very few of the hawkers actually ever made profits in the investments they hawk.
Our computations indicate that virtually roughly 40% of the cash that flowed out of the market from 7-19-07 to the 3-9-09 bottom flowed back in by the recovery high of 4-23-10. By 7-6-10 roughly half the money that flowed in at the bottom flowed back out and we were then down roughly 75% of the original outflow from the peak. By 5-2-11 we rallied and were only down only about 50% of the cash of the original outflow that ended 3-9-09. But at the end of July 2011 to about 10-2-11 all the cash that flowed in with the premature announcements of recovery had flowed back out and the cash invested was back down to the 3-0-09 level. That was an excellent time to get 100% into the market. By 5-21-13 half the money that was out of the market on 3-9-09 and again out on 10-2-11 was back in. That being said it appears half the money that left the market since 7-19-07 appears to be used in timing the market and the other half are out completely or have possibly lost virtually everything and so 50% of the cash is being timed in and out and 50% of the cash lost appears lost permanently and will require a new generation of investors to recover. The recent market decline was on a movement of about 25% of the active cash flow that is being used for timing or in other words 25% of the 50% used in recent market timing. Some of that was recovered last week but the market timers will likely sell off soon and we predict the NYSE decline from the recent high could exceed 20% in average market index price if all if all the market timers pull out.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Egypt's military on Monday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to the Islamist president Morsi to "meet the people's demands" or it will intervene to put forward a political road map for the country and ensure it is carried out. Morsi was democratically elected and then illegally changed the constitution to create an Islamic Sharia law dictatorship which their Supreme Court immediately rejected. The military ultimatum, it said, was a "last chance." The mass protests on Sunday brought out millions of Egyptians demanding President Mohammed Morsi's ousting as "glorious." The military said protesters expressed their opinion "in peaceful and civilized manner," and that "it is necessary that the people get a reply ... to their calls."
The latest Nokia $76 internet access phones let users connect to speedier third-generation networks.
The European Commission said thirteen banks were charged with blocking Deutsche
Boerse and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from entering the credit derivatives market in the last decade in breach of EU antitrust rules. The group which includes Goldman Sachs shut out from the CDS business between 2006 and 2009. Credit default swaps (CDS) are over-the-counter contracts that allow an investor to bet on whether a company or country will default on its bonds within a fixed period of time. It allows banking institution hawkers to sell junk like "liar loan tranches" and then bet against their own clients.
Chinese companies are no longer in the ranks of the world’s 10 biggest stocks by market value for the first time since 2006 amid a cash crunch, slower growth and hostage taking of an American factory owner for ransom.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/0626/Meet-the-American-factory-owner-held-for-ransom-in-China
Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI+Basic+Chart&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The SandP is parabolic at old inflation adjusted resistance levels which were set in 2000 and 2007 and at this level it has not even matched inflation. Simple mathematics says that after a 66.6% drop in value it has to go up 300% from the low to get back to breaking even. The market (accounting for inflation) was lower in 2007 than in 2002 and is lower now in 2013 than in 2007. And MSNBC/Pravda says we are recovering because we are at the same stock market level we had in early 2000 before the Clinton recession, the Bush election and 911.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
July 1
ISM Index Jun 50.9 up from 49.0 +
Construction Spending May 0.2% down from 0.4%-- This is corrected for the administration subtracting 0.3 from last month and adding it to this month to pretend last month was only 0.1% and this month is 0.5%. Making downward revisions after reporting is how socialist make depressing news look better than it is because the public never sees the final number because it is not news. That is why all during election year they reported 2% to 2.5% growth and predicted this year would be 3% and now they say last year the American economy grew in fact 1.5% last year.
July 2
Factory Orders May up 2.1% up from 1.3% + off a very low baseline.
General Motors saw sales rise by 6%, Chrysler was up 8%, and Ford was up 13%, led by truck sales.
Jul 3
MBA Mortgage Index 06/29 -11.7% sharply down from -3.0% ----
Challenger Job Cuts Jun 4.8% up sharply from -41.2% -----
Rather than make irrelevant comparisons here is what we should compare Obama’s numbers to.
ADP Employment Change Jun 188K very weak should been at least 800K -----
Initial Claims 06/29 343K should be no more than 100K
Continuing Claims 06/15 2933K hides actual unemployed at a record of about 4000K ----
Trade Balance May -$45.0B down from -$40.3B, But should be at least break even at 0% ---
Jul 05
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 195K flat from 195K we need 1million/more for recovery and more than 200k to keep payrolls from declining further as people leave the work force and go on entitlements.
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 202K down from 207K
Unemployment Rate Jun 7.6% flat at 7.6%
Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% up from 0.1% or 4.8% inflation
Average Workweek Jun 34.5 no change 34.5 just inflation beginning
The Markets July 5, 2013
The disappointment of Justice Roberts on the Supreme Court underlines the fact we are now in Obama’s perpetual socialist economic depression. We now have socialist control of all three branches of American government. But remember that JP Morgan made his fortune as America entered a depression. You can also make yours. He left tremendous wealth to a foundation he hoped would further American free enterprise. He would be disappointed if he knew that today his wealth would be in the hands of socialist foundation administrators. That should be a warning to those entrepreneurs who do not restrict the use of their foundation funds to productive rather than destructive ends. A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. Quantitative Easing is en economic opiate and Obama/Bernanke has gotten America hooked.
Our cash flow analysis indicates there is no more money in the market than there was in the early summer two years ago before the sharp August 2011 decline. We anticipate the current decline started in the last month will be doubled or tripled this summer. The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. 2-yr bonds are about as much as investors should risk.
Obama is employing the same near sighted policies that Carter employed but for different reasons. Carter thought we were running out of fossil fuels and Obama thinks we are just burning too much fossil fuel. One thought there was too little and we had to conserve. The other thinks there is too much and we need to cut back. Both have been wrong and apparently understand very little about energy and thus created unemployment and misery during their terms in office.
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/061511-575513-return-of-the-dreaded-misery-index.htm
Carter thought we were running out of fossil fuels. The environmentalists then were predicting we would exhaust the world’s oil resources be 2020. They fabricated their data as they always do and environmentalists are the inventors and perpetuators of "Junk Science." They made a movie entitled Fahrenheit 450 where the atmosphere gets so hot that paper bursts into flame and people must live in air-conditioned bubble cities. The environmentalists can’t help it that they were born stupid and without integrity just like politicians except they are also devoid of any personalities.
It was not until 1990 that the environmentalists finally figured out how to fabricate the historical data needed to claim global warming was caused by humans. They did it by removing the data from the 1800’s during the Industrial Revolution when coal was burned before oil was discovered… because temperatures were lower then even though people actually died in some cities like London due to the asphyxiation from everyone burning coal. Oil burning cleaned up the environment but the normal glacial cycle was still in the warming stage regardless of CO2.
The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=target
The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia