Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Markets continue a high risk, low reward situation.

It is a fact that socialists individually contribute the least toward charity at home. They think that is not their job it is government's job. In northern European socialist countries the government collects a stipend from every member of the church and gives it to the churches. That is like automatic tithing and is doing wonders to get people not to go to Christian Churches. Socialists also tend to be atheists and are the biggest cheaters to avoid paying taxes. Even Obama's Treasury Secretary had to come clean on his tax evasions when he was advised he would not pay any penalties if he cleaned up before he was audited. Socialism leads to corruption and underground economies as honest people find themselves taxed to starvation. Greece and southern Italy are perfect examples of underground economies and Mafia like local justice.

The Euro fell as Germany announced production had stalled in February. Even so the cost of Greek debt rose sharply against the cost of selling German debt as socialist government workers continue to demonstrate against government spending reductions.

World Outlook
A 20% improvement in sales after an 80% drop still leaves a company 76% lower this year. But the market prices the stocks much higher because the growth rate makes the stocks PEG seem like a great buy. It can be a very slow growth company that looks good only because the investors are short sighted and believe the stock hype Jim Cramer and others give them. The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND


Economic Calendar
Finally American jobs are being created faster than they are being lost. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

However, below that chart is another chart that shows the high unemployment rate. What is not shown is that there are a greater percentage of Americans who have been unemployed now for more than a year than in any period since the Great Depression. That block of unemployed Americans will take a long time to re-absorb into the economy.
ISM non manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53% last month indicating services are expanding at an increased pace.
US Treasury prices slid on Monday with benchmark yields touching 4 percent for the first time in 10 months as inflation is anticipated. Inflation is better now than deflation.
Pending home sales- the National Association of Realtors said Monday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements rose 8.2 percent from January to a February reading of 97.6. January's reading was revised slightly downward to 90.2 to make the current month look better. This is still a good sign.
FOMC minutes were once again positive. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the liquidity meltdown. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close June 30.


Yesterday
Markets are skeptical over Greek ability to repay bonds they continue to sell more of to pay off debt and go ever deeper into debt as welfare recipients and government workers demand a free lunch and put it on the tab of private workers.
Buyers have returned in force to Treasury 10-yr note auction. The $21 billion auction stopped out at 3.900 percent just under recent highs of 4%. Retail demand was very strong with direct and indirect bidders taking down 59 percent of the auction vs. an average of 51 percent. The continuing trouble in socialist Greece has increased the value of the dollar and is giving a boost to U.S. Treasuries. Treasury prices are extending gains.

Thursday, April 8:
Unemployment claims
BOE rate announcement
ECB announcement
Treasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year bonds.

Friday, April 9:
Wholesale Trade Report



Market Outlook April 8
The market closed down on sharply increased volume confirming the topping of the American stock markets. We do not expect more than a 10% decline in this first round but it is likely to cascade downward until the socialists in Congress are thrown out of office so that spending on unions and state and federal loafing lifers can be cut.

Obama and the democrat-socialists have set the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in and attack American markets. It is very hazardous right now because individual popular stocks like PALM show just how badly an investor in Jim Cramer's favorite growth sector can be savaged. Other stocks such as Boom are being savaged internally with management literally buying Boom stock at 0$ per share and selling it to hide mushrooming Administrative salary increases by diluting the value of the stock. The management of BOOM is milking that company dry.

The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime. The new chairman of the Republican Nat. Comm. Is another big spender and is destroying the Republicans from the inside as contributors are turned off by GOP big spending on nude bar scenes.

World Markets
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -1.4%, and Japan down -1.1%.

European markets are currently down in the range from -0.9% to -1.5 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are down in a range -0.2% to -0.4% at 7:30 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

The Markets are now in a high risk, low reward situation.

This week John P. Hussman, Ph.D. reported an Unpleasant Skew. See:
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc100405.htm

In summary John said, "The first crucial observation is that high risk market conditions like we observe at present come with an "unpleasant skew." If you look at overvalued, overbought, overbullish, hostile yield conditions of the past, you'll find that the most likely market outcome, in terms of raw probability, is a continued tendency for the market to achieve successive but slight marginal new highs. While this movement tends to be fairly muted in terms of overall progress, it can be somewhat excruciating for investors in a defensive position, because the market tends to pull back by a only a few percent, followed by bursts that recover that lost ground and achieve minor but widely celebrated new highs. That is the "unpleasant" part.

The "skew" part is that although the raw probability tends to favor slight successive new highs, the remaining probability tends to feature nearly vertical drops, typically well over 10% over a period of weeks. Frankly, I thought we had begun that process in the decline from the January highs, but much like we observed in early 2007, that initial decline was quickly recovered and followed by a restoration of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, hostile yield conditions. Eventually, of course, the outcome for investors was very bad, but that in no way rescued us from discomfort as the market approached its final peak in 2007. I suspect something similar is at work at present, but we will take our evidence as it comes.

Asset values have been written up over the past year, but the underlying cash flows clearly continue to deteriorate. Delinquency rates remain at record highs, while foreclosure rates have lagged, creating a massive shadow inventory of bad but unforeclosed mortgages in the U.S. financial system. "


World Outlook
A 20% improvement in sales after an 80% drop still leaves a company 76% lower this year. But the market prices the stocks much higher because the growth rate makes the stocks PEG seem like a great buy. It can be a very slow growth company that looks good only because the investors are short sighted and believe the stock hype Jim Cramer and others give them. The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND


Economic Calendar
Finally American jobs are being created faster than they are being lost. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

However, below that chart is another chart that shows the high unemployment rate. What is not shown is that there are a greater percentage of Americans who have been unemployed now for more than a year than in any period since the Great Depression. That block of unemployed Americans will take a long time to re-absorb into the economy.
ISM non manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53% last month indicating services are expanding at an increased pace.
US Treasury prices slid on Monday with benchmark yields touching 4 percent for the first time in 10 months as inflation is anticipated. Inflation is better now than deflation.
Pending home sales- the National Association of Realtors said Monday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements rose 8.2 percent from January to a February reading of 97.6. January's reading was revised slightly downward to 90.2 to make the current month look better. This is still a good sign.

Yesterday
FOMC minutes were once again positive. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the liquidity meltdown. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close June 30.


Wednesday, April 7:
Treasury 10-yr note auction

Thursday, April 8:
Unemployment claims
BOE rate announcement
ECB announcement

Friday, April 8:
Wholesale Trade Report



Market Outlook April 7
While the NYSE could be setting new highs this week the NYSE adjusted for volume being higher on recent declines than advances now has to rise about 1.6% just to reach the highs of last October and December. We agree with John Hussman from our stock market cash flow perspective that uses stock volume. In 2007 we saw as now that the slow ascension of new market highs were not supported by market volume. When corrected for lower volume on advances the market cash flow index was as now showing first flat and then declining lows and highs.

Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up slightly over night; Shanghai down -0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.1%.

European markets are currently down in the range from 0% to -0.5 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are down in a range -0.2% to -0.4% at 8:00 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Social Security failed because leftists use it to even pay for things like Ritalin and hearing aids.

Social Security was intended to be a safety net to provide for seniors who worked all their lives. Instead the leftists use it for disabilities most of it goes to fraud. The 60 Minutes show once staged a fake bus accident in a ghetto area in New Jersey. When passing deadbeats heard the bus was in an accident they got on the bus and swore they were injured in the accident. It was a popular accident fraud scheme and they normally would collect for a fake injury and then apply to Social Security for disability payments for life.

Most teachers know of other teachers who get special disability payments and retire early with full state and local benefits. In one school in Connecticut a teacher completely retired on disabilities after being kicked in the shin of one leg by a grade school student. I knew an Army veteran who was retired with full disability in his late 20's. He was the best water skier in his town in upstate New York.

Almost everyone knows someone involved in fraud and the worst fraud is in Medicare. The government hires imbeciles because they are in special favored ethnic and racial groups who need a job where they can get by and do nothing. 60 Minutes showed that the Government workers do not check companies first before paying fraudulent claims. By the time these incompetent government workers are pressured into shutting down the fraud, the criminals have been forewarned and are gone. With crooks in paid government jobs how can America expect any government program to work. They are all going bankrupt due to corruption and incompetence of government workers. Medicare fraud is now more lucrative than drug dealing so organized crime prefers Medicare fraud because with imbecilic leftist government slackers it is virtually risk free.

The leftists are slowly destroying western world freedoms with corruption at all levels of government. While most American scientists and engineers acknowledge the natural glacial cycle only the loony scientists and left wing imbeciles say the evidence proves it is man made. The natural cycles have actually occurred at least ten times in the last million years, long before there were humans. Over 31000 scientists and engineers have signed a petition saying Global Warming is not likely man made as opposed to 10000 ignorant or corrupt loony scientists who signed a petition claiming the evidence proves global warming is man made.
http://www.petitionproject.org/index.php

This leftist global warming fraud is just one of ways leftists infiltrate everything. They are destroying science at universities and large religious organizations from the inside. The same leftists who love little choirboys are the ones seeking gay marriage recognition and gay priests and bishops. They all hate the Catholic Church because the Catholic Church learned its lesson and is stopping this process which the ELCA Lutheran Church in America and the Anglicans have only just started to encourage. Well folks, this is nothing new. They have been doing their thing in secret for centuries and they want to do it openly in the future with public approval. This is an ancient life style incompatible with the work ethic or American protections of individuals from predators, and the tyranny of the leftist corrupt growing majority. It goes back to Sodom and Gomorrah when Lot was forced to surrender his children to it because the predators were in the majority.


World Outlook
The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND


Economic Calendar
Finally American jobs are being created faster than they are being lost. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

However, below that chart is another chart that shows the high unemployment rate. What is not shown is that there are a greater percentage of Americans who have been unemployed now for more than a year than in any period since the Great Depression. That block of unemployed Americans will take a long time to re-absorb into the economy.

Yesterday
ISM non manfg index rose to 55.4% from 53% last month indicating services are expanding at an increased pace.
US Treasury prices slid on Monday with benchmark yields touching 4 percent for the first time in 10 months as inflation is anticipated. Inflation is better now than deflation.
Pending home sales- the National Association of Realtors said Monday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements rose 8.2 percent from January to a February reading of 97.6. January's reading was revised slightly downward to 90.2 to make the current month look better. This is still a good sign.

Tuesday, April 6:
FOMC minutes

Wednesday, April 7:
Treasury 10-yr note auction

Thursday, April 8:
Unemployment claims
BOE rate announcement
ECB announcement

Friday, April 8:
Wholesale Trade Report



Market Outlook April 6
The VAT tax is a good idea. This is how it works. It places a tax on the value added at every stage of production and distribution. It amounts to about 20% except the tax is 0% for exports. So they forfeit the 20% on exports so that business can make the 80% tax-free. This is an enormous benefit to business and is the primary reason a small partially socialist country such as Germany has such a good economy and high exports. It is curious that if the United States is against the VAT at home that no one ever took the VAT to the Trade Board and complained that it is effectively a -20tarrif and therefore dumping and unfair. If America accepts the VAT for Europe it makes sense competitively to use the VAT in America.

While the NYSE could be setting new highs this week the NYSE adjusted for volume being higher on recent declines than advances now has to rise just 1.6% just to reach the highs of last October and December.

Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai 0%, Hong Kong closed, India up 0%, and Japan up 1%.

European markets are currently up in the range from 0% to 0.5 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are down in a range 0.2% to 0.4% at 8:30 AM EST.


We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Monday, April 5, 2010

The risk of a tyranny of the Majority is why the American founders chose the American Republic form of government

The risk of a tyranny of the Majority is why the American founders chose the American Republic form of government where the established law of the land and not the majority determines justice.

Bolivia now joins Venezuela in scrapping their Constitutional protections in favor of another socialist psychopath dictatorship. The new Bolivian constitution makes the mixed native population the power-base using the principle of a tyranny of the majority where the majority will elect the Supreme Court. Obama too, with his grossly incompetent leftist entourage seeks to change the American Constitution to give his majority of indigents, illegals, felons, government workers, unions, and separatist ethnic groups the tyranny of a majority coalition. And once they have democratically elected their judges they can dispense with all the protections the American Constitution affords. America would no longer be a republic and a land governed by the law of the land. Instead it would become a democracy governed by the whims of the current elected majority. Under Obama's buddy Chavez of Venezuela, the critics of Chavez are imprisoned, flee the country, or simply are murdered in the streets. And we know Obama loves Chavez because Chavez was one of the first psychopaths Obama befriended when he defeated liberal Republican McCain.

American liberty and free enterprise bailed the world out of several economic panics, one FDR socialist Great Depression, several socialist European depressions, two world wars and many attempts of socialist atheistic and Moslem pirate and terrorist groups to slaughter innocents who did not agree with their ideology. Since America rose to world power there has not been another World War or socialist caused depression. Obama wants to scrap the individual freedom, liberty, and free enterprise precepts of the American Constitution for the time proven sick and depraved socialist system which has been the legacy of all the evil men and sick societies of time from Mohammed spreading lies by the sword to Hitler's Arian Race, to the killing fields of Cambodia and to the 911 Moslem terrorists. Obamacare and socialism would turn America into a cradle to grave government run feudal state much like they have in Indonesia and Nigeria Obama's childhood countries. Under Barack Hussein Obama's socialism it is not what you know and achieve that count, but what political organization you belong to and who you know that counts. Under Sadham Hussein if you did not support him he had you thrown off a roof or thrown in a vat of acid. Only the strict adherence to the checks and balances of the American constitution has protected Americans from sick charismatic dictatorial socialists taking over our government.

World Outlook
The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND


Economic Calendar
Finally American jobs are being created faster than they are being lost. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

However, below that chart is another chart that shows the high unemployment rate. What is not shown is that there are a greater percentage of Americans who have been unemployed now for more than a year than in any period since the Great Depression. That block of unemployed Americans will take a long time to re-absorb into the economy.

Monday, April 5:
ISM non manfg index
Pending home sales

Tuesday, April 6:
FOMC minutes

Wednesday, April 7:
Treasury 10-yr note auction

Thursday, April 8:
Unemployment claims
BOE rate announcement
ECB announcement

Friday, April 8:
Wholesale Trade Report



Market Outlook April 5

While the NYSE could be setting new highs this week the NYSE adjusted for volume being higher on recent declines than advances has to rise more than 3% just to reach the highs of last October and December. That implies the market is ready for its biggest correction since March 2009. It is likely to be focussed on specific stocks and sectors. The wannabe Ipods that did not make the cut are one area where sharp selling is likely. Sales of the tablets have also been hyped far beyond reason.

Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong closed, India up 1.4%, and Japan up 0.5%.

European markets are currently up in the range from 1% to 1.5 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are up in a range 0.4% to 0.5% at 8:30 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Barack Hussein Obama trades American liberty for Moslem feudalism

Barack Hussein Obama trades American liberty for Moslem feudalism

American liberty and free enterprise bailed the world out of several economic panics, one FDR socialist Great Depression, several socialist European depressions, two world wars and many attempts of socialist atheistic and Moslem pirate and terrorist groups to slaughter innocents who did not agree with their ideology. Since America rose to world power there has not been another World War or socialist caused depression. Obama wants to scrap the individual freedom, liberty, and free enterprise precepts of the American Constitution for the time proven sick and depraved socialist system which has been the legacy of all the evil men and sick societies of time from Mohammed spreading lies by the sword to Hitler's Arian Race, to the killing fields of Cambodia and to the 911 Moslem terrorists. Obamacare and socialism would turn America into a cradle to grave government run feudal state much like they have in Indonesia and Nigeria Obama's childhood countries. Under Barack Hussein Obama's socialism it is not what you know and achieve that count, but what political organization you belong to and who you know that counts. Under Sadham Hussein if you did not support him he had you thrown off a roof or thrown in a vat of acid. Only the strict adherence to the checks and balances of the American constitution has protected Americans from sick charismatic dictatorial socialists taking over our government.

World Outlook
The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

Markets
Personal Income did not increase in February but Spending was up 0.3%. Both were not as good as expected. Core deflation was zero. We need some inflation to stay out of a Great Depression.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5 from 46.4 in February but taken together looks flat and not improving at all.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm

On the bright side, retail sales have returned to normal and while car sales and new home sales are pathetic, that means that auto and housing stocks can still go a lot higher but retail stocks probably had their run.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_sales.htm

Housing Price Index of 20 U.S. cities rose 0.3 percent in January after a similar gain in December. That is eight consecutive months of gains but there still is along way to go.

Markets this week
As manufacturing now begins to level off it is not a bad sign because it means we have recovered in that sector and manufacturing is beginning to approach capacity so they could begin hiring again very soon.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_mnord.htm

Wednesday, March 31:
ADP Jobs report on non-farm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change of employment from January 2010 to February 2010 were also both revised 20% down, from a decline of 20,000 to a decline of 24,000.

Yesterday:
The March employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008 only because January and February were reduced 20% from as mentioned above. Without the revisions March would have been at least 15% worse than the previous two months. Lack of improvement in employment the first quarter is not consistent with the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter that was due to people dropping off the unemployment compensation rolls. Chicago PM Index: The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer fell to 58.8, lower than anticipated, from a February reading of 62.6 that was the highest since April 2005. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February, while inventories and backlogs climbed by the most in more than a year, a Commerce Department reports showed today. Factory Orders increased slightly in March due to new factory orders.

Thursday, April 1:
Unemployment Claims
Layoff Report
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend

Market Outlook April 1

Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.2%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India up 0.9%, and Japan up 1.4%.

European markets are currently up in the range from 0.5 to 1.1 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are up in a range 0% to 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).


American liberty and free enterprise bailed the world out of several economic panics, one FDR socialist Great Depression, several socialist European depressions, two world wars and many attempts of socialist atheistic and Moslem pirate and terrorist groups to slaughter innocents who did not agree with their ideology. Since America rose to world power there has not been another World War or socialist caused depression. Obama wants to scrap the world freedom, liberty, and free enterprise precepts of the American Constitution to the time proven sick and depraved socialist system which has been the legacy of all the evil men and sick societies of time from Mohammed spreading lies by the sword to Hitler's Arian Race, to the killing fields of Cambodia and to 911. Obamacare and socialism would turn America into a cradle to grave government run feudal state like they have in Indonesia and Nigeria Obama's childhood countries. Under Barack Hussein Obama's socialism it is not what you know and achieve that count, but what political organization you belong to and who you know that accounts. Under Sadham Hussein if you did not support him he had you thrown off a roof or thrown in a vat of acid. Only the strict adherence to the checks and balances of the American constitution has protected Americans from dictatorial socialists taking over our government.

World Outlook
The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

Markets
Personal Income did not increase in February but Spending was up 0.3%. Both were not as good as expected. Core deflation was zero. We need some inflation to stay out of a Great Depression.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5 from 46.4 in February but taken together looks flat and not improving at all.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm

On the bright side, retail sales have returned to normal and while car sales and new home sales are pathetic, that means that auto and housing stocks can still go a lot higher but retail stocks probably had their run.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_sales.htm

Housing Price Index of 20 U.S. cities rose 0.3 percent in January after a similar gain in December. That is eight consecutive months of gains but there still is along way to go.

Markets this week
As manufacturing now begins to level off it is not a bad sign because it means we have recovered in that sector and manufacturing is beginning to approach capacity so they could begin hiring again very soon.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_mnord.htm

Wednesday, March 31:
ADP Jobs report on non-farm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change of employment from January 2010 to February 2010 were also both revised 20% down, from a decline of 20,000 to a decline of 24,000.

Yesterday:
The March employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008 only because January and February were reduced 20% from as mentioned above. Without the revisions March would have been at least 15% worse than the previous two months. Lack of improvement in employment the first quarter is not consistent with the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter that was due to people dropping off the unemployment compensation rolls. Chicago PM Index: The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer fell to 58.8, lower than anticipated, from a February reading of 62.6 that was the highest since April 2005. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February, while inventories and backlogs climbed by the most in more than a year, a Commerce Department reports showed today. Factory Orders increased slightly in March due to new factory orders.

Thursday, April 1:
Unemployment Claims
Layoff Report
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend

Market Outlook April 1

Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.2%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India up 0.9%, and Japan up 1.4%.

European markets are currently up in the range from 0.5 to 1.1 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are up in a range 0% to 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign and still likes what Obama is doing should be enough cause for every American to vote out the Oba

The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign and still likes what Obama is doing should be enough cause for every American to vote out the Obama regime.

World Outlook
The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

Markets
Personal Income did not increase in February but Spending was up 0.3%. Both were not as good as expected. Core deflation was zero. We need some inflation to stay out of a Great Depression.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5 from 46.4 in February but taken together looks flat and not improving at all.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm

On the bright side, retail sales have returned to normal and while car sales and new home sales are pathetic, that means that auto and housing stocks can still go a lot higher but retail stocks probably had their run.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_sales.htm

Housing Price Index of 20 U.S. cities rose 0.3 percent in January after a similar gain in December. That is eight consecutive months of gains but there still is along way to go.

Markets this week
As manufacturing now begins to level off it is not a bad sign because it means we have recovered in that sector and manufacturing is beginning to approach capacity so they could begin hiring again very soon.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_mnord.htm

Wednesday, March 31:
ADP Jobs report
Chicago PM Index
Factory Orders

Thursday, April 1:
Unemployment Claims
Layoff Report
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend

Market Outlook March 30
The Wilburforce of Boston report:
The Obama debt will be relentless unless we reverse the programs of that spending fool. That is why so many Obama supporters in real life can't rub two nickels together. They are over their heads in debt and since their mama is broke and da papa hasta pimp, they need to rob da rich folk who saved and don't drive dem BMW's or hafta sell drugs and pimp for a livin. ACORN been da federal PIMP agency Obama and da lunatic fringe support. Obama done said yesterday dat da patriots been da real fringe group. Is Obama cool an all there in da head? You gotta vote for da man.

The opposing view:
But rising yields on government debt will drive up American borrowing costs making the worlds largest bond traders drool over the coming collapse. They say this month’s losses in the market for U.S. Treasuries are just the beginning. Obamacare will make America a welfare state by putting the entire nation on welfare. And all the way down George Soros will be making another fortune betting against America. That is why all Americans need to vote out the lunatic socialist left ASAP. Obama's nationalization program that can only end with a world wide Great Depression like FDR caused when he was enamored with the Russian Revolution.

The storm is almost upon us. Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India down -0.4%, and Japan down -0.1%.

European markets are currently flat in the range from -0.1 to 0.2 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are up in a range 0.2% to 0.3% at 8:00 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Unless the loony Obama left is removed from office the Doomsday-Obamacare bomb explodes in 2013

Unless the loony Obama left is removed from office the Doomsday-Obamacare bomb explodes in 2013

World Outlook

Markets yesterday
Personal Income did not increase in February but Spending was up 0.3%. Both were not as good as expected. Core deflation was zero.

Markets this week
Tuesday, March 30:
Housing Price Index
Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, March 31:
ADP Jobs report
Chicago PM Index
Factory Orders

Thursday, April 1:
Unemployment Claims
Layoff Report
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spend

Market Outlook March 30
Obama debt will be relentless. That is why so many Obama supporters can't rub two nickels together because they are over their heads in debt. Rising yields on government debt will drive up American borrowing costs is resonating with the world’s biggest bond traders, who say this month’s losses in the market for U.S. Treasuries are just the beginning. Obamacare will make America a welfare state by putting the entire nation on welfare.
The market sold off yesterday when long term Treasury auctions continued to be weak indicating that China and Japan are too smart to fund Obama's socialism and Obama's extravagant wasteful deficit spending. Obama's nationalization program that can only end with a world wide Great Depression like FDR caused when he was enamored with the Russian Revolution.

The storm is almost upon us. Obama and the democrat-socialists are setting the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in soon and attack American markets and currencies. The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime.

World Markets
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India down -0.7%, and Japan up 1%.

European markets are currently flat in the range from -0.1 to 0.1 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are up in a range 0.2% to 0.3% at 8:00 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).