Thursday, July 30, 2015

July 29, 2015 As Obama slowly dismantles the Ex-Im Bank, Boeing becomes one of the first considering moving part of its operations overseas the satisfy the Stupid Party wishes. Obama will use the Ex-Im money to cover additional welfare but not the cost of all the American jobs that will be lost. No need to worry though because Obama agrees with Putin that more people on a government handout will strengthen the central government and increase voter turnout. The “stupid party” says that it is self evident in countries like Iran and Russia where up to 98% vote, that most of them vote for the government’s socialist leader. The US Constitution requires the American President to present his requested budget to Congress for approval. So obviously all a President and his Stupid Party Congressional members need to do is to do nothing as usual when they think welfare not jobs bring in more votes than jobs do. Trump claims that stupid fascist socialist attitude is another example of gross incompetence of this administration.

 
Pending Home Sales Jun -1.8% after stupid-party commentators said it was at least 1.5%.
     Stupid party FOMC Rate Decision July; was nothing as usual.
     Stagnation and unemployment is happening as usual now for the last six years.
     Jul 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q2 2.3% after -0.2% last month for a 1% annual rate.
            July 28, 2015  Consumer confidence plunged in July and the Conference Board's index of consumers' perceptions fell sharply from June’s 99.8 to 90.9 mostly because of a sharp deterioration in their short-term economic outlook?  Probably not!  More likely it is due to the growing incompetence of the Federal administration when it comes to monitoring the economy and the reports because good news is politically correlated with speeches and the news has to be corrected later.
       Analysts optimistically predict the Shanghai Composite Index will sink only another 8.5 percent after plunging Monday.  That would extend the decline to 38 percent.   It is optimistic none-the-less because none of the analysts are looking at daily 1929 market lows they are using daily or weekly 1929 market averages.  The absolute daily low during FDR’s Great Depression was 95% below the absolute daily high at the peak before the depression.   In reality we are now seeing all major world markets begin to decline together.  The NYSE broad market first saw cash leaving last October.   Now we are seeing opportunities evaporating and people wisely reducing Stock Market investments until this is over.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/demark-sees-14-china-plunge-as-stocks-mirror-1929-u-s-crash
      Brent oil price shrank to a new five year low.
      Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.8% up from -0.1%
      Case-Shiller 20-city Index May flat at 4.9%
          The “stupid party government” analyzes Trump’s assets in an attempt to identify all his holdings so that their brown shirt supporters can continue to demonstrate and create havoc such that Trump businesses lose money.  Of course all the loses are blamed on Trump’s candidacy in order to economically destroy him because he is planning to clean house in Washington and launch the biggest investigation into criminal government activities in US history.   Hitler’s Brown Shirts are the model for the “Stupid Party” demonstrators.
         Massive hacks have occurred.  The evidence has already been downloaded overseas, and will provide the proof of and timing of the current administration’s ongoing destruction of government records that the proof of the deliberate criminal harassment of opponents of the “stupid party.”  Obama and Hilary have now requested that all the NSA records be destroyed but apparently copies were saved to support an honest and thorough US government investigation once the current corrupt government is replaced.  US NATO allies, Korea and China are a lot smarter than incompetent Washington officials think.  They know how dangerous fascist socialists are.   Fascists are socialists that allow and use capitalists to corruptly control wealth.  It is called crony capitalism.   That is how Obama milks banks and other industries threatening lawsuits and fines.  Copies will make it easy to identify the material requiring analysis because the incriminating Washington records have been the primary records being destroyed so far.  They are destroying records not to protect the innocent victims of the administration but to protect the corrupt government officials who ordered the illegally taping the State Governments of Wisconsin and New Jersey as well as contributors to groups opposed to the corrupt government or groups just standing up for the American Constitution.  Every fascist government controls the press and attempts to destroy good and honest people with their stupid fascist party’s hoodlum demonstrations and planted hecklers.
http://www.wired.com/2015/07/nsa-destroy-phone-records-illegally-collected/

Monday, July 20, 2015

July 24 2015 The next two weeks look to be a probable test period for the world stock market bubbles. It is a time to keep vigilant. When over-reactions occur in certain strong company stocks they create opportunities to buy. But as a bear market matures, usually it is better to sit it out until the final collapse. Normally a bear market recovers after a sharp sell off. But unless America elects a competent administration in 2016 this will likely go down as Obama’s Great Depression. Books will be written about the incompetence and corruption prevalent in the Stupid Party and others today.

If you have followed us you were primarily in cash and may have shorted some stocks already or have gone into a few bearish ETFs.  We do not make specific recommendations.  
          July 23, 2015    The world governments are in reflation mode, but it is obvious from the decline in commodity prices that reflation is failing and every major world economy is headed for depression mode instead on the horizon.  Reflation plus depression was the Weimar Republic’s and the Zimbabwe’s recipes for hyperinflation.  But that kind of disaster would require someone like a Hilary Clinton to accomplish.  Trump is the only one who apparently can cut through all the Clinton-Obama political bullshit.  But it will unfortunately take a crashing stock market before the majority listens to him.  
         Hilary Clinton is now off defending Planned Parenthood’s policy of selling aborted baby body parts to criminal doctors.  One Planned Parenthood doctor said on camera that there is a high demand for baby livers as she crunched on a salad and discussed her work experience “crunching” living fetuses.  Are the leaders of Planned Parenthood and their political supporters sick or what?  Hilary supports throwing away tax money on sick Planned Parenthood doctors even though Obama’s new law already pays for abortions.  So far Hilary still makes no sense at all but Bernie Sanders has come to her party’s rescue to set her straight.  So far, everyone who has attacked Donald Trump has done far greater damage to their own credibility than to his.  He started with nothing and has legally amassed one of the greatest individual world fortunes ever in spite of every political effort stop him all along the way.  His only failure has been his inability to teach others how to accomplish what he has done.  That is because other people give up too easily and Donald Trump does not.   Trump is not 99% bullshit like the current administration.

July 22, 2015    We warned months ago that the run up in stock prices in China were manipulated by the Communist government.  They gave up reporting accurate volume as well to make it more difficult to detect their fabricated stock values so that you could not tell that the price increase was not due to buying pressure.  Volume is essential to investing because if the price jumps 10% on a few communist government shares exchanged it is obvious the market is fixed.  In addition china’s ETF’s in the US began using fake volumes for the bull and bear ETF’s.  They went to a phony fixed ratio of volumes for YINN and Yang traded on May1, 2015 right after the Communists began their hyper-ridiculous-manipulation.  The manipulation is now so great it makes the Communist Party look ridiculous.  Buy communist party manipulated stocks at your own risk.  Russia is no better than China.
         Giant investment hedge fund Bridgewater Associates LP, has declared that China is no longer a safe place to invest.
         The socialist Japanese Toshiba Corp. accounting scandal is about padding pretax profit by at least $1.2 billion over six years.  All the top executives at the Japanese industrial conglomerate, which makes everything from faulty refrigerators to faulty nuclear reactors, apparently are in on it. Padding the books is how most socialist run companies get their stock prices to the current market bubble level but it is usually done legally making stupid but legal assumptions.  When the stock market collapses suddenly the executives get smart, sell their holdings and take the corporate losses to create at new bottom price so that they can buy back in low and restart padding of corporate income during the next bull market.  The socialists’ governments are so dumb the crooks go to the bank and never go to jail.
         Surprise-surprise!  Prices of homes are now higher than at any other time, including at the peak of the 2007 bubble just before the housing and stock market collapses.
         Beware again; the first downward leg of the new recession market could be very soon.  Early July is when much of the world goes on vacation and is oblivious to the news.  Declines in that period can be very steep and can be a buying opportunity if one gets out before the next decline.
 
        July 22, 2015    The Wall Street Journal today reported: the Chinese say that on July 7 they were only controlling only 96.8% (100-3.2% uncontrolled) of their stock prices in their market.  Otherwise it was a free market.  American housing is now being destabilized as it was in 2007 with low payment mortgages that kick in later.   Hackers have now demonstrated they can take control of self guided motor vehicles.  Hedge funds have introduced new ways to bet against markets when the stock market collapses that make more money than just directly shorting stocks.  These are all news today.
       Until now, when markets collapsed the US Treasury and FED never broke the buck as more socialist countries have at times.  But that can now happen if a major brokerage or other non-bank firms go bankrupt since they have limited insurance.
       We are approaching the most risky two weeks of the summer when major declines have occurred.  These declines happened twice during the Obama administration but are small compared to the next Obama economic decline we anticipate later this year.   We are now seeing corporations biting the bullet and honestly reporting recent sales/earnings declines instead of cooking their books and that is an indication that the stock market balance sheet bath is just beginning.  All the DOW indicators (stocks, rails, utilities) are in decline and only the fringe unproven/untested concept technology stocks have pushed higher.  That is the end game pattern for a bull market.  The FED is now actively trying to skinny down overextended banks.
 
       July 21, 2015   Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the new stress test goal is to force banks either to shrink or to hold substantially more capital to reduce risk of a meltdown.  The FED has assigned a higher capital holding requirement for larger banks.  It is evident the FED sees the imminent risk of a financial meltdown and depression not inflation.
        The new deal Obama gave Iran will Iranian their oil output this year increasing the pressure on the oil cartel to further lower prices.
Commodities are most vulnerable as currencies become volatile and recession and deflation hits the BRICS.
The DJI and DJR have joined the broadest NYSE market in beginning to roll over and decline.  Only the NASDAC, the most volatile index has hit new highs in recent months and it has the most hyped and manipulated earnings statement companies of all. 
IBM, the world's largest technology services company continued to see revenues fall for the 13th consecutive quarter.
       July 20, 2015   Just five days ago we warned that gold was still historically high in its multi decade cycle.  It peaked with both stupid party presidents Jimmy Carter and Hussein Obama.  Gold bugs know that political dunces throw hard earned money at everything and don’t understand how anyone makes an honest living.  Gold prices just plunged 4 percent to $1,088.05 an ounce their lowest in more than five years today as sellers in China dumped some of the metal.  India will soon start doing the same.  Gold could drop about 30% before it bottoms.   The Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes soared to a record.  It broke its support levels so there is more to follow.   Gold rises during inflation and plunges during recessions and the looming depression.  FDR blamed Herbert Hover for his Great Depression and Obama is still blaming Bush for Obama’s evolving Great Depression.  The sale of gold is a precursor to anticipated deflation or depression.
              Donald Trump is under attack from the establishment.  Senator McCain referred to Trumps 15000 person speech (to what included thousands of veterans in McCain’s home state) as a turnout of a bunch of "crazies."   Yes, McCain called veterans who voted for Senator McCain "crazies."   Trump responded that McCain may be a war hero but Trump prefers the “heroic heroes” because all combat veterans are probably as heroic as Senator John McCain.   Both politicians McCain and John Kerry were great heroes according to themselves but McCain had no witnesses.   John Kerry’s boasting of heroism was refuted in a book written by all the men who witnessed and served with him.   If every American would read John Kerry’s book about Vietnam they would throw this entire administration out.  Read what Kerry wrote that his co-soldiers did to Viet Cong nurses with dynamite sticks.   Then you will ask how could a person like Kerry be allowed to negotiate with enemies sworn to kill Americans?  So far the stupid party media has been doing its best to slander Donald Trump but it has helped Trump’s ratings soar.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

July 17 2016 Obama and his “Stupid Party” continue to violate the public trust and use millions of dollars of taxpayer money to illegally infiltrate, monitor, and harass political opponents. Obama and Rahm Emanuel started first harassing several vocal media opponents which included Rush Limbaugh who had to commit himself to pain drug detoxification at a rehab facility before he shook them off. They went after the hunters with Fast and Furious which was first blamed on American gun owners and cost the lives of 30,000 innocent Mexicans in an armed drug war. They had the IRS attack tens of thousands of Americans in religious groups and American historical societies who the Stupid Party despises because they love God and Country. They used the NSA and tapped the lines of FOX newsmen because FOX is a bigger an enemy to the stupid party than ISIS which Obama says is not an Islamic terror group. They used the NSA supercomputer to analyze the recorded conversations of the illegally tapped lines of Governor Christy’s entire administration to (in just two weeks) pair up two random conversations of the Governor’s staff to smear their names and cause them to lose their jobs and to simultaneously smear Governor Christy’s name. Governor Scott Walker was continually illegally harassed by stupid party Democrats and today the Supreme Court ordered the stupid Democrats of the Stupid Party to no cease and desist further harassment of Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Americans are fed up with creeps in the stupid party illegally using our National Security agencies while keeping confidential information on their personal computers to thwart National Security analysis. The WSJ had a less partisan article than the NYSE.

            With Hilary Clinton and all the gun control people in the Obama administration, how does any Moslem non-hunter get rifle much less automatic weapons?  Only the Moslem community has any supporters of ISIS.  How does any Moslem get approval to buy automatic weapons or explosives?  Only Hilary’s/Obama’s stupid party favors automatic weapons rights for Moslems but not hunters and veterans.
            Just to refresh memories, the cash flow (cf) into the broadest market (the NYSE) peaked in early July 2014.  The DJI cf peaked Dec 5, 2014.   The Std and Poors cf peaked March 24, 2015.   The NASDQ and Russell 2000 cfs peaked June 23, 2015. 
            A Planned Parenthood female doctor was caught on camera discussing how she saved aborted fetus body parts to illegally sell them for profit for Planned Parenthood.  She said she caused breech births to enlarge the birth canal to save the brain for sale.  She discussed how she crushed most organs during the abortion to make sure the baby would be dead.
            July 16 2015    Yellen has now run out of time for significantly raising rates and having a possible future reduction benefit.  The economy will be in decline soon and she won’t be able to raise rates once that happens.  Therefore the FED will be left with no strings to pull and will only be pushing on the string doing quantitative easing.   QE is equivalent to floating more debt to prepare for an eventual a run on the banks.   All the markets will likely be hitting resistance price levels in the coming month and on a cash flow level only the NASDAQ has an appearance of a perhaps a 10% chance of hitting its old high before then.  The rest appear to be over the hill.  It now appears highly probable that many investors will be in panic mode by this time next month.  Short sellers are smarter now and will likely cover their shorts near the bottom but this time they will have the strength to stop the next rally.  That will be the writing on the wall to many investors.  But the perennial bulls will not give up easily.   We now expect a “Sell! Sell! Sell!” capitulation this year… sometime after September.
            The problem with more debt is you encourage more risk taking such as with ridiculous IPO’s like Alibaba.   China has that money and is sitting on it.  We estimate that half the money that went into Alibaba will end up in the coffers of the Chinese Communist Party.  Does China cook the books?  Yes, we pointed that out for a few years and now it is obvious they manipulate not just their economic reports but also try to manipulate individual stocks and their stock market.  The Alibaba IPO was like stealing from clueless American children.
            Gold is still high historically.
            The MBA Mortgage Index 07/11 plunged -1.9% a swing of -6.5% in one month.
            The US international trade balance plunged again as the EURO got weak and the US$ got stronger.  A stronger dollar makes the price of oil drop for American drillers so they will want to pump even more.  It is expected the price of a barrel of oil will drop below $40 in this next downturn.
            For the segment of crooks that fraudulently filed returns and stole USA tax funds, 2015 was the best year in all history.  For the honest taxpayers who required help from the IRS, the filing season was by far the worst in all history.  We need to sweep the stupid party out of all of government and monitor and fire the Obama government employee deadbeats in 2016.  We have an economy that is transitioning from recession to a depression.   If that happens before the 2016 election the “stupid Party” will blame George Bush again.  We need to boot Obama’s stupid party out and get a competent President and a new FED chairperson and turn our economy around.
            July 14 2015    Yesterday’s rally has been weak in volume and off of a low market valuation for starters.  If it were a real rally it would have 50% to 200% higher volume.  China is on the verge of a recession.  The stupid people commenting on the market don’t believe China could have a recession because they think that trends perpetuate themselves indefinitely.  When economic bubbles implode they sink whole sectors of the economy and the malaise lasts 6 months to in Obama’s Stupid Party case, 8 years.
      Sales at U.S. retailers dropped in May were revised downward by 0.2% and fell -0.3% in June.  That is consistent with our assessment that Obama has put the economy on a path toward a deeper recession which could ultimately result in a Great Depression.
      America needs to throw out the “Stupid Party” and all their incompetent officials who are creating sanctuary cities for illegal immigrants.   Before America gained independence from England the State of Georgia was an American colony that took non violent criminals.   Australia was another British colony that took non violent criminals who stole primarily because they were hungry and poor.  Violent criminals did not go to prison or get deported.  They were tried and hung.   Our current stupid and incompetent American administration has sanctuary cities and ICE protects the dangerous illegal immigrants who are set free, deported, and then return and prey on more Americans.   
Bill Reilly proposed a new law, Kate's Law, to throw deported illegal immigrants in jail for five extra years each time they return after they are deported for crimes in America.
       The Stupid Party wants all the illegal immigrants to vote in the next American Presidential election so they are proposing that proof of citizenship not be required at polling places.  That is just how stupid they are and think other Americans are.  It would be a dictatorship of the proletariat.
 
            July 13 2015  Finally there is a successful person who understands what the problem is with America.  We have “stupid people running our government” so Donald Trump has deduced.  We have a president that went to Harvard to meet a quota and he has sealed his records so no one knows he was registered as a foreign student and he has sealed his grades for obvious reasons.   And we have several incompetent CEO’s who put their sex lives above their corporation’s success or even the first Constitutional Amendment, Freedom of Religion.  And the American response is overwhelming so far.   Many Democrats are starting to recognize the “Stupid Party” for what it is and they like Donald Trump for pointing out the stupidity of the leftists.   Trump set up a talk in Phoenix and more than 15000 people signed up so he had to change the venue to larger stadium.
          The six major indices we follow have not had a sustained rally for some time and all will have 65DM averages declining soon showing their price action has now topped.  The broadest indicator, the NYSE Market Cash Flow topped out in July of 2014 and gave the first sell signal October of 2014.   In the past the cash flow falloff has preceded the selling panic by up to a year giving plenty of time to adjust investments.

Monday, July 6, 2015

July 10 2015 Today the WSJ reported today that economic growth throughout the world is now predicted to drop this year to the lowest levels seen since 2009. The contraction has begun already and China for the first time could see RED. Already China has discovered that trying to manipulate their stock market is fraught with danger. If they continue to harass stock sellers and short sellers no one will be willing to buy their stocks and rich entrepreneurs will retire and flee to the Free World. China could soon face a tremendous brain drain.

            We have talked many times about how during a stock market bubble corporations are pressured by some Mad Money stock commentators and hedge funds to distort earnings to artificially reduce their PE not by increasing profits.  Even Apple recently did the legal manipulation.  There are also ways to manipulate PE fraudulently like Enron did but there are legal ways extensively used to deceive and drop the corporation PE by going into debt (at current low interest rates) to buy back shares so that the earnings of each outstanding share increases substantially due to that manipulation.  This has allowed stock prices to reach yr 2000 and yr 2007 bubble levels without a corresponding increase to its P/E because the FED has flooded the stock market with cash to buy back their stock at a record low interest rate.  This is now entirely out of control.  Some American corporations are heavily in debt because the FED has kept interest rates at about a third of what they normally are during a market bubble.  Apple distorted their PE too by using their cash to buy back their stock.  Thus many corporations have completely distorted their PE ratios and could actually go bankrupt when this bubble pops and the economy declines or when interest rates increase.  Once the bankruptcies begin the creditors will see their risk and raise interest rates causing cascading waves of corporate insolvency.
            This Obama administration must now be the most racist administration in the history of America.  Kate Steinle was murdered by an illegal immigrant who had multiple violent crimes and deportations but her name is not even mentioned by Obama because she is not of the “right” color.  Another white man was filmed being beaten unconscious by a mob and again this administration says nothing about this obvious racism which has been put up on national TV.  Those American racist idiots would like to change the American Constitution because some of the signers owned slaves.  Those racists don’t know that it was warring African tribes that collected and sold their enemies as slaves to be shipped out, not the Europeans. 
Donald Trump claimed last night that Mexico is actually sending Mexican criminals to America just like Castro did when Castro emptied his jails.  Trump said the people who served in the Obama administration, including Hilary Clinton are stupid leaders and allow it.
            July 9 2015    The U.S. economy's stumble at the start of 2015 is dragging down the world's growth to the lowest level since the Great Recession, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.  The number of permanently unemployed keeps increasing and the trade balance worsens.  Most of the US stock indices now show their 65 day moving average prices have peaked.  The cash flows for them peaked months ago.
Initial Unemployment Claims 07/04 297K up from last weeks 281K
Continuing Claims 06/27 2334K up from 2264K    
Trade Balance loss May -$41.9B up from -$40.7B last month 
            July 7 2015    Developing countries and emerging markets are taking big hits because the countries and corporations are not economically savvy.  Our analysis shows that the number of shares of stock sold on the Chinese exchange that are given with the long and short ETFs for Chinese stocks are phony numbers as of the end of April.  That means even the ETFs are ripping off investors using the phony fabricated communist investment information.  
            July 6 2015    Wall Street Ouija board market analysts the likes of Jim Cramer are calling for flat earnings to be the definition of corporate success for this quarter again.  By lowering expectations they expect that stupid greedy investors will continue to bid up prices.  This is just one more sign that the world stock markets are all overbought.  But unlike the financially ignorant commissars in China and Russia, Western Wall Street Ouija board market analysts cannot legally manipulate free markets.  Chinese and Russian stock markets are a disaster because communists are used to manipulating everything, and they don’t want let free enterprise run free.
            U.S. service firms grew at a slightly in June, as business activity and new orders increased.  The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its services index edged up to 56 in June from 55.7 in May. Any reading over 50 indicates that services firms are expanding.  Many economists say the economy will expand slightly in the second quarter, after shrinking during the first three months of 2015.  Still, the index's hiring component slipped in June to 52.7 from 55.3 in May, which indicates that the rate of job growth might actually slow.
            Racism photographed by two men while two women with a man attack two other women with a child.  The man with the attacker hops around like an idiot.   No one including the two with cameras helps the woman who is attacked.  This is America under Obama.  What will it be like under Hilary? 
http://godfatherpolitics.com/23347/media-ignores-black-womans-vicious-attack-of-white-woman-with-toddler/#r9lqpmT1ZxMriL2d.99
            July 5 2015    The US FED has been printing money in anticipation of a breakdown of the world credit system and our US national debt more than doubled since 2006.   But the money supply has more than tripled!  Warren Buffet has begun moving his investments into a basket of foreign currencies.    The fear is there will be massive dumping of the dollar if a basket of currencies takes the place of the dollar as Warren Buffet thinks.  Even if the dollar made up 25% of the new trade currency it means foreign government banks would dump 75% of their dollars.   And if any US banks and brokerage firms were shut down the accounts are only insured to a maximum of $200,000 per account and some accounts are not insured at all.  We will lose anything over the $200,000 insured value.  Many accounts aren’t insured by the FED.   Price inflation will negate rising stocks as the world faces a crisis similar to Greece.  The average US citizen already carries far more national debt than the average Greek citizen.
 
            Factory orders in May fell 1% after falling 0.7% in April.  They are still declining year after year and at an all time low for the Obama years of decline.
 
            We were correct!   The Chinese Communist Party has admitted manipulating their stock market for several months causing a bubble with the hope of drawing in US and EU investors to apparently give foreign investors and Chinese speculators a hair cut and generate a huge profit for the Communist Party.  Pending IPOs in China are now suspended, brokerage firms pledged $19 billion for a market stabilization program and the People’s Daily told people to “have confidence and patience, instead of losing their minds” as the Chinese government looks to stop the worst three-week slide in stock markets in more than two decades. The Shanghai Composite Index has fell 29 percent since June 12 after surging more than 150 percent in a year.  The communists loved the recent bubble and thought they were now geniuses at manipulating capitalist markets.  But they didn’t think it was right that the bubble popped without Communist Party permission.   So they want the people to stop panicking and immediately start buying again so the government can liquidate some of the incredible debt they have run up building cities that have no people in them. 
            Texas wants its gold holdings held in Texas.  They are getting a little nervous about the invisible Obama recovery.
 
Losses will spiral if the Greek default causes a steep increase in borrowing costs for other debt-laden countries, such as Italy, Spain, and many nations other nations in South America, Asia, and Africa.  Interest rates could leap and even China could now be destabilized even as they already manipulating their Stock and financial markets.

Friday, July 3, 2015

July 4, 2015 China’s government in a Freudian slip admitted they are manipulating the Chinese Stock market. The recession cycle has averaged about seven years and the last stock market peaks were in 2000 and 2007. So we are due for a major correction. Chinese stocks tumbled again losing more than 10 percent last week. After a slump of nearly 30 percent in Chinese stocks since mid-June, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regulator said it was investigating suspected illegal market manipulation aimed at heading off a full-blown stock market crash. Only legal Chinese government manipulation is allowed. After market close, a CSRC spokesman said China would cut IPOs to help stabilize prices. It also said China's official speculative margin lending for stock purchases would be quadrupled to $16 billion to expand speculation.


            A flurry of policy moves over the past week, including an interest rate cut and a relaxation of margin lending rules, failed to prevent the sell-off.  The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also provided 250 billion Yuan to ensure adequate liquidity in the system.  Fu Xuejun, at Huarong Securities Co, said that a market crash would be a disaster for the communists trying to control prices.  The Shanghai Composite Index shed 5.8 percent on Friday.  For the week, the CSI300 lost 10.4 percent and the SSEC fell 12.1 percent.  Chinese stocks had more than doubled between November 2014 and mid-June, fuelled largely by small inexperienced retail investors using margin accounts.  Sources said China suspended 19 accounts from short-selling for a month.  The government is encouraging more pension funds to invest in speculative stocks just when the market is at its seven year peak.



 


Sunday, June 28, 2015

July 2, 2015 The untruthful Obama claim of a jobs recovery rewrites the definition of full employment. That is a polite way the Washington Post has of saying that the Obama administration has been the most incompetent, corrupt, and prevaricating administration in the history of the USA and you especially cannot believe anything good he says about the economic Great Depression he is slowly and meticulously creating. At the current rate we will have the Obama depression before the 2016 election cycle. But first we expect a world wide stock market panic.

            It appears the world stock markets are ready to enter the end stage of the Obama economic recovery, and with Obama leading from behind we should enter the first phase of an Obama economic depression.
            When the East Germans were freed from socialism in 1989, the popular quote was, “We pretended to work and the socialists pretended to pay us.  That is how it is in Greece today.  To European socialists, freedom and austerity still have the unpopular connotation of having to get off one’s duff to actually do some work or else be fired and have to find a real job.   Free enterprise is awful for someone raised in a socialist cradle to grave rest home work environment.   They think Germans and Americans are nuts when we say that they should enjoy working for a living.    People with real skills and real intelligence actually do find or make their jobs something they enjoy doing.  Stocks surged on the report Greece was ready to accept demands then fell on the report Greece's Tsipras was against a bailout.  That flip flop was the work of the numerous CNBC and MSNBC commentators like Jim Cramer who always praise corporate idiots who meet their desired targets and ridicule intelligent corporate leaders who give the unwanted truth, especially when the bubble is about to pop.   The regulators have suggested that CEO be fined when they overstate sales, revenue, or profit.  First they need to fire Jim Crammer who has a wall of shame to mock CEO’s who tell the truth.
Initial Unemployment Claims 06/27 281K up from 271K -
Continuing Claims 06/20 2264K up from 2247K
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 223K declined from 280K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 223K declined from 262K
Hourly Earnings Jun 0.0% declined from 0.3%
            Puerto Rico's problems ($71 billion debt) are only 2% of the $3.7 trillion U.S. problematic municipal bond market debt.  California ($778billion debt), Chicago ($63billion debt), Detroit ($20billion debt), NYC ($110billion debt), and Illinois ($127billion debt) are ready to go under next.  While workers paid in for their Social Security retirement benefits, Obama, Clinton, Carter and other stupid party leaders have added millions of people with claimed needs and disabilities and many of the unemployed to the Social Security fund to the extent that in twenty years Social Security will have nothing left for the retired workers who are the only ones who actual paid for their retirement.  Who really believes the Stupid Party cares about workers?  The Stupid Party cares only about buying votes and not even if you are a US citizen when you vote.   On top of the $3.7 trillion municipal debt Obama now has the USA in debt to the tune of $18 trillion.  The Greek debt is only $330 billion or 0.9% of our municipal debt or less than 0.1% of our total US debt.  Greece is about as economically significant as the state of Alabama.  The real problem is the socialists wherever and whenever they are elected.
            The private job growth rate is at the level seen when the economy peaked and turned down in 2007.
The growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector dropped in June, hitting its slowest pace since October 2013.
            July 1, 2015   There is a growing convergence of unsettling news as the 2015 Stock Market Bubble implodes.  We have reached the point where low interest credit no longer helps the economy as all the investment worms and government parasites spread the something-for-nothing economic contagion.  Puerto Rico and Brazil were quick to hold out their hands.   Many of the high flying corporations are shell games with hidden losses, or Ponzi schemes where they load up with debt and pretend it is profit.  But once the bank letters of credit expire many small growth companies will be worthless.
            The US MBA Mortgage Index 06/27 plunged -4.7% indicating home sales will plunge in the coming month. 
            China now admits manipulating their stock market and plans to double down on it as a way to fleece foreign investors and keep floundering corporations in their declining economy afloat.  Of course that is a disaster in the making if the free world withdraws their money and the policy could conceivably even bankrupt China. 
            Obama plans to change overtime rules in another stupid party economic screw-up of American technological industries.  Scientists and Engineers and many great corporate leaders have their minds on their jobs almost every waking hour.  That is because creative people who love their work do not work just for the money.  It is a real pleasure for them.  Edison is an excellent example and he had a cot in his office and took power naps to keep working.  Obama and his “stupid party” obviously do not understand brilliant and creative people at all and his effort to force companies to pay more overtime is something they need in Russia or Moslem Indonesia where Obama grew up.  
            American law requires that a child be born in America not just of an American mother in order to be an American president.  The reason Obama’s birth certificate was challenged was because it was on a modern form not on the form used in Hawaii at the time of his birth.  There was never a question that he was an American.  The question was whether the Hawaiian document was forged so that he could run for president.  CT Senator Lowell Weicher could not run because he was born in Paris.
      A Federal Court ruled that Apple conspired with five publishers to increase e-book prices.  The fine is estimated to be $450 million.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/us-apple-ebooks-decision-idUSKCN0PA1RS20150630
            Nike co-founder resigns as investigations of Soccer bribes continue.
 
June 30, 2015  Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr 4.9% down from 5.0% -
Chicago PMI Jun 49.4, less than 50 means contraction of business in Chicago.
Consumer Confidence Jun 101.4, almost the same as when the last stock market bubble popped on 2007, but 35% lower than when the DotCom bubble popped in 2000.
            Stock markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply Monday, and U.S. shares dropped about 2%, as investors fled to safer investments after the Greek government closed banks Monday and the crisis over the country's membership in the Eurozone reached the end of the line.  France's CAC 40 index was fell 3.7%, while Germany's DAX fell about 3.6%.  Japan's Nikkei was off 2.9% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was off nearly as much.              The contagion is spreading.  Puerto Rico, Portugal, Spain, and Italy could be next.  Economist Larry Kotlikoff warned the Senate Budget Committee that Greece is more solvent than the United States.  The fiscal gap is “the difference between government’s projected financial obligations and the present value of all projected future tax and other receipts.” The projected financial obligations are also known as “unfunded liabilities” such as future Social Security payouts.  Social Security is completely funded by the workers but so much is spent on welfare that Lyndon, Jimmy, Bill, and Hussein have left none of the money for retired people.  We have to borrow more all the time.  At over $210 trillion, the U.S.’s fiscal gap is higher than most of the world’s economic basket cases.
            The only way to stop the fraud that allows manipulators like Jim Cramer and others perpetuate stock market bubbles is to throw the CEO’s who fraudulently report higher revenue or higher income in jail and take away all their ill gotten gains.  As we warned before, the bubble is now popping and as it does we will see how many companies are fraudulently inflating revenues and profits.  Private equity giant Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. will pay $30 million to settle civil charges that it misallocated more than $17 million in expenses and breached its fiduciary duty to its clients.  The settlement just brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission is in an area that the SEC is actively investigating throughout the industry.  The case is centered on "broken deal" expenses relating to the firm's unsuccessful investments.   Expenses, totaling $338 million over a six-year period were incurred by KKR’s investors such as pension funds, endowments and other institutional investors in KKR's flagship private equity funds.  However KKR did not disclose to these fund investors that its own company did not pay a cent of any of these loses even though they were investing in the same companies as the flagship funds' investors.  KKR only took a share of the profits not the losses and therefore their fraud made their books look good to stockholders even though they were poorly run companies of corrupt executives.
            Pending Home Sales in May were at 0.9% down from 3.4% last month.    The Obama administration plays a role in inflating the stock market bubble by faking the economic statistics.  The Obama administration actually reduced the value given last month to make the current month look better than it was. Price increases have also slowed compared to last year, rising 4.1% year-over-year in March.
            June 29, 2015  Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Walmart legally is cheating Americans out of taxes by hiding $78 billion through a web of 78 offshore branches and subsidiaries in Luxembourg and other wealthy nations where they have no Walmart stores at all.  Luxembourg enjoys the highest per capita income in the world thanks to traitor American corporations like Walmart that pay minimal tax protection fees for their services.  Walmart reported $1,300,000,000 in profits from 2010 to 2013 paying less than 1% in taxes by that method.   It is just another reason to avoid Walmart until they replace their CEO who opposes the Bill of Rights freedom of religion.  Obama’s current tax rate is 30% plus fines and penalties.  A Republican administration would reduce corporate taxes to 15% plus interest and that would result in a windfall of back Walmart and other hidden offshore taxes for Americans.
            Greece owes a large debt payment by the end of Tuesday, and has scheduled a referendum for next Sunday on whether to accept the terms of an offer from its creditors to release bailout aid needed to meet its financial obligations.  Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced Sunday night that banks would be closed as of Monday as the ruptured debt negotiations with the nation’s creditors began raising alarm in Washington, Brussels and Berlin.  “There Will Be No Grace Period for Greece,” IMF's Lagarde said.  The emergency measures and unpredictable state of a crisis could now ripple through global financial markets.
            Puerto Rico is struggling with a $73 billion debt load and faltering economy and is facing crunch time this week with a July 1 deadline to make a $655 million payment on its general obligation debt, while its struggling utility PREPA faces a $400 million payment. 
            Low interest rates have put corporations and nations on a borrowing spree and in a precarious situation. Just as falling interest rates have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, the FED normalization will generate losses and Banks' equity capital will shrink.  Corporations that went into heavy debt to buy back shares to push their corporation share prices up into the stratosphere would be facing earnings losses as higher interest rates on their heavy debt takes effect.  PE ratios would plummet and go negative as the low interest rate bubble pops.  But while that happens millions of share holders would scramble to dump their share quickly to try to avoid the losses.  Jim Crammer will then wake up and say, “They’re all crazy, sell, sell, sell.”  So far that scenario is still likely to occur by the end of this year.
            China's central bank cut interest rates again on Saturday and reduced reserves that certain banks must hold just one day after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plunged more than 7 per cent.  Japan’s stock market also appeared to be showing signs of instability Sunday night EST.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

June 26, 2015 Housing stocks are beginning to take a hit as realism sets in. The leftists’ wishful thinking that there is a housing recovery magically fools them into believing there is a recovery. But the existing housing market remains saturated and the next generation needs full time jobs so that they can afford the current housing. Wages are going down faster than the minimum wage increases because socialized medicine’s corporate payments do not kick in if the company has only part time not full time employees. So in addition to the growing subsidized welfare underclass of Obama socialism, the “stupid party” is creating a large marginalized class of part time poor youth, illegal immigrants, pot smokers, and alternative life style people. Housing will not do well while the “stupid party” governs America.


 
Michigan Sentiment Final for was Jun 96.1 up from 94.6.  It is now at the same level as it was in 2007 just before the current recession began.

         
Here is how the leftist news media is lying to you, telling you how good the economy is under the Obama “Stupid Party” followed by the actual plots of personal income and personal spending.  They are obviously lying and implying that things are better than before Obama was elected when in fact they are only comparing today to the bottom after Obama was elected.   The National and International socialists are opposite sides of the same coin.  Hitler and Stalin were both socialists and socialists strive for government control of everything.   Socialists have large propaganda machines that continually deceive the voters and end up with one political party and put anyone who disagrees in prison once they get power.  That is why we show you all the data so you know just how the leftist press and Obama continually try to deceive Americans.  First we show a web site with the misinformation and then we show the site with a full chart so you can see how bad things are and how they lie and say things are better.  The fact is that the “stupid party” put America into an economic hole and we are trapped until the “stupid party” is thrown out of our government. 
            The socialists are actually making income inequality worse than it ever was under capitalism.  Their trick is to avoid salaries for their dictators.  The rulers like Putin, Stalin, and Hitler never paid a nickel for anything.  They carry/carried no money.  They live/lived in palaces with servants and aides just like the kings prior to the Russian Revolution.  And the American leftists are so stupid they don’t realize the “Communist Party” is the modern aristocracy.  We have had a brief period of personal freedom and free enterprise between the “Old Aristocracy” of military dictators and the “New Aristocracy” of socialist dictators.  
            June 25, 2015   You can see from the following chart that the first term from 2003 through 2006 of George Bush had about 3.7% average GDP growth but it dropped to about 2% in the Dodd-Frank-Obama liar loan period just before the liar loan derivatives broke the banks.  You can also see the Obama recovery is at best averaging 1.25%/yr GDP growth just as the economy is about to enter a second Obama recession.  Remember, Hover had a recession and then Roosevelt had a follow-on recession and a 90% stock market collapse leading to the “Great Depression.”  To this day the leftist who run American Universities falsely claim Hover caused the “Great Depression.”  There was no run on the banks under Hoover.  The original American “stupid party” of FDR had the depression and then went to war against the “stupid party” of Hitler in Germany.
      The bubble is close to popping.  Come June 30 the Obama nuclear appeasement treaty with Iran will be seen as a failure and the economic disaster in Greece will probably only get another band aid.  In Greece the average person goes to on dates until the age of 30, then settles down and begins work at about 30 and retires with a full pension at age 45.  While they only work 30 hr weeks they average 7 weeks vacation per year.  That is the way stupid party socialist reduce the unemployment rate by reducing everyone’s work load thereby sharing what Americans would call part time jobs.  That is why Obama now has the government pick up the health care cost of Americans who work less than 30hrs.  He wants Americans working fewer hours so Obama can hide some of his incompetency dealing with the economy.   That is how the “stupid party” redistributes everyone’s poverty.
     June 24, 2015   Carl Icahn proudly disclosed today that he sold his remaining stake in video streamer Netflix at its recent high bailing out near the top of this equities bubble.
        New Home Sales for May were 546K up from 534K but down from 1390K before Obama’s “Stupid Party” Liar Loan Program intended to help ineligible people own homes.  The home ownership rate now is only 63.9%.  It is the lowest in 25 years.   Yet people are flipping homes now like they did at the peak in 2006.  We now have a glut of housing and record vacancies and house fires.  Housing is down but apartment building is up.  The “Stupid Party Press” said,” New home sales rose to 7-year high in May.”  They believe all Americans are just as stupid as they are because 7 years ago was actually the lowest level in the 15 years, since 2000.  So being the best in 7 years is pathetic!
     FHFA Housing Price Index Apr rose 0.3%.
     Walmart has been kicked out by stockholders from the top ten capitalized corporations in America.   Customers are leaving in droves too.  The current Walmart CEO joined a group of hateful elitist CEOs who said they would boycott individual States that specifically allowed their citizen’s freedom of religion.  Their corporations are now having problems that cannot be solved until their ignorant hateful CEOs leave.   No one told those CEO’s that most of their customers were the people the CEO’s hate.  Once stupid hateful CEO’s get involved with the goals of NAMBLA they can’t seem to keep their minds on their business any more and put their desires ahead of the needs of the corporation.  The employees of Walmart had been subjected to low temperatures, low wages, and difficult schedules indeed.  But by far the very worse thing any CEO’s could do was to put NAMBLA’s needs ahead of their employees and stockholders trying to force NAMBLA age of consent objectives on individual states and Christians and Jews who object.   Family values have been the target of all communist governments, hateful stupid parties, the first Clinton administration, and this Obama administration.  The stupid hateful CEO's of the following companies recently threaten US freedom of religion:   Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Apple, Anthem, and Nike.   We expect all of the corporations listed above will either have new CEO’s or will soon be in continual decline.  What intelligent people would work for such a foolish CEO or buy from them?
 
      June 23, 2015   William Jennings Bryan's famous “Cross of Gold” speech in 1896 was the American version of the Greek crisis today.  JP Morgan made his fortune betting that America would resolve its financial crisis.  For most of the 1800’s, the American banking system consisted of state-chartered banks.  The National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 were the United States federal banking acts that established our present system of national banks by created the United States National Banking System.  It facilitated the development of a national currency backed by bank holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and established the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency as part of the United States Department of the Treasury and authorized the Comptroller to examine and regulate nationally chartered banks.  If an American state went bankrupt like Greece seems to be doing in the EU, would the US State have been expelled from the United States?  Of course not!  Vermont was a problem state in early America, hit hard by the gold standard at every recession.  Why isn’t any state in the USA or in the EU similar?  Neither can print Federal money but if a city or state goes bankrupt why couldn’t some of their state assets be sold off or the city/state use the national currency but not be allowed to print it.   They already have complete worker movement throughout the EU.  Why would any state object to the nation state owning and managing historic sites?  Greece would still have the tourism and jobs without the financial worries.
            The EU or private enterprise might be willing to pay a fortune for some of historic sites in Greece, or their islands.  All the early nations had growing pains and economic panics when they the established Federal Banks. 
            I can sense that you out there reading this blog also sense the broader market has already peaked and now the foam at the top of the rally wave is peaking.  Our first warning was when the cash flow into the broad NYSE peaked.  Only the NASDAQ cash flow peaked again this last time but it was insignificantly higher.
            Existing Home Sales May were 5.35M up from 5.04M but still 50% lower than before Obama came on the scene.  Maybe hearing Obama campaign promises caused the panic?
            Manufacturing is still going down and off the scale lower than before Obama.  Manufacturing durable goods orders in May were down -1.8% even worse than last month’s -1.0%.  Durable Goods -ex transportation May up weakly by 0.5% after a decline last month -0.2%.
            June 22, 2015   Putin and others who murder their critics could be classified as criminally insane.  Countries that enjoy freedom should boycott such nations that are led by the criminally insane just as we boycotted the Russian Olympics after they invaded Afghanistan.  That boycott helped lead to the collapse of the USSR.   The Obama “Stupid Party” earned that label when they declared all Americans “Stupid” as their lame duck defeated representatives voted to pass their legislation that they did not have time to read.  The “stupid party” is about to cave in on Iran and let nuclear proliferation arm the Jihad of the Mid East.  That will take the cake as perhaps the most stupid thing the “stupid party” ever did.  The free world should insist on boycotting all nations led by the criminally insane starting with Russia, and if necessary Iran and even Greece.  In fact if China wants to go back to the impoverishment of “stupid party” leadership then the free world should at that time boycott China.  Hopefully Americans will always reject their “stupid parties” who are always left or right wing socialists.  Democrats pretend the Nazi were not a National Socialist party and they and the Union of International Socialist Republics were run by “stupid party” dictatorships who thought freedom was an evil.
            Iran’s Islamic legislation just voted to deny verification that they are not developing nuclear weapons.  Is Obama going to be so stupid as to allow perpetual extensions of the settlement deadline?
            June 21, 2015   There is very good reason to get out of the high flying pharmaceuticals corporation stocks ASAP.  Sixty Minutes did a special on the corruption of the pharmaceuticals’ business model June 21.  They showed that the industry is completely corrupt.  Prices are determined by the commission of the salesmen and the percent kickback the doctors get for using or prescribing their drugs.  Kickback boosted prices are much higher than the honest costs of research and development because the costs are primarily a reflection of the incompetence and dishonesty of the drug producers.  For example Sixty Minutes compared two drugs of equal curative results where drug A cost twice as much as drug B.  The salesmen make the same average 6% commission on both so the salesmen tend to push the expensive $30,000 product not the $15,000 because they get an $1800 not a $900 check in the mail.  The doctors get a periodic kickback check from the corrupt corporations as well.  That causes drug prices to rise to whatever the market will bear.  Thus Obama’s Stupid Party corrupt socialized medicine spends 40% to 60% more for the same medicines sold to other socialized nations that have rooted out some of the corruption.  As a result many Americans get poorer treatment now with Obama’s Stupid Party corrupt socialized medicine and many Americans die if they are not on welfare and cannot afford the treatment co-pay.  We would get out of this stock sector ASAP. 
            And for that matter all previous bubbles had similar corrupt methods for either cheating customers or as Warren Buffet said, doctoring their revenue and profit numbers.
            Walmart once had greeters at the door to welcome customers.  Then they claimed their employees were stealing so they instead had security people roaming the stores and cameras recording deliveries of ordered goods.  Now the will have employees checking at the exits again because they think customers are stealing again.  Customers will be scrutinized as they leave and taken to a private area if they are suspected of shop lifting.  
            Twitter is incapable of coming up with a business model to profit from the millions of high school students and college dropouts addicted to social media.   Twitter allows the “Walter Mitty’s” of the world pretend they have a real life.   The problem is that Twitter hasn’t been able to fool people the way most IPO candidates have.  No one is nibbling.
            The CEO’s of the following companies threatened to put an end to America’s freedom of religion because Jews and Christians often discriminate against and imprison pedophiles.  NAMBLA homosexuals now say it is just the same as discriminating against all homosexuals.   That is nonsense of course yet it is apparently believed by some CEO’s today.   The following CEO’s said they are committed now to discriminating against states that practice their freedom of religion.  None of the CEO’s said they would discriminate against, stop selling to, or stop investing in and creating jobs in Moslem Nations where homosexuals are systematically stoned or burned alive.  This irrational CEO behavior shows immaturity and a certain disdain for the American Constitution and therefore extremely poor judgment.  Therefore, until these companies instate objective management we would avoid them.  No one can force you to even use the products of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike.  These were once under great management but have lost it.  And when the market bubble bursts stock holders will wish they chose companies with CEO’s who put the company first.