May 5, 2016 This is a difficult year to plan anything with a stock market bubble and no obvious economic shock in sight. But the pressure is building with the BRICS slowly entering bankruptcy. Puerto Rico is also entering bankruptcy and the wealthy Chinese are putting all the money they can into offshore accounts. Gold is now rising as an indication of the fear of either an economic collapse or of accelerating inflation. The glut of oil continues to increase as most major economies struggle to grow. It is similar to the situation President Herbert Hoover faced, but he and FDR did not have all the economic tools we have today. But the tools don’t seem to work as the debt bubble expands and interest rates approach zero and turn negative even in the best of economies. That is another reason people are starting to buy gold again as hyperinflation becomes a possible world problem. That happens to countries that get too debt ridden and the whole world is falling deep into debt.

China has been a bellwether in recent years with their protectionist policies and high tariffs on competitive imports.  But that could come to a quick end next year.  Hillary says she will follow Obama’s economic and world leadership with a continuation of his same disastrous policies if she is elected.  Now we know the Obama-Hillary administration has been the most incompetent administration in American history.  And Hilary has been the Secretary of State primarily responsible for the disintegration of democracy and the growth of terrorism in Moslem ruled areas while she and Obama refused to even say the words Islamic terrorism.

 

Trump is competent and he says he will threaten to retaliate dollar for dollar for the tariffs and restrictions that China, Mexico and others put on American products.  He claims he is so intelligent and persuasive that he will convince all our trade partners to reduce their tariffs as a condition for no American tariffs on their products.  But he makes an exception for American companies that sold out to greed and moved out of America for cheaper labor.  Those company products will have tariffs until those companies move back to America.   Even if it proves impossible it is the thought that counts and the lesson the deserters will learn.

 

The point is that the whole coming year is impossible to predict due to the uncertain American Fall election.  Mid-June+ 2016 probably will not be the final market bottom now unless Trump starts beating Hillary in all the election polls and then wins the election.   So at this time we cannot hazard to say that the next bottom will be the bottom for this economic cycle.  In fact it could get so bad that a major recession starts and takes a full year to turn around.  However, as long as we can, we will try to estimate when the next tops and bottoms occur and the risks involved.  Giving the Obama-Hillary team the boot would be the best thing that Americans can do for the entire world at this point.

April 29 2016 The probable climax of the current Obama bear market has begun. The plunge into the second Obama recession is accelerating with the fear that corruption and incompetence could accelerate again under a Hilary Clinton presidency.

The very last economic growth area, home construction, appears to have topped.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction

Home prices have topped.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case

 

Retail sales have stagnated.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=retail_sales

 

Labor costs are inflating giving the FED ammunition to raise rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=hourly_eci

 

But the greatest threat to the American Economy is now Hillary Clinton who is favored in national polls.  So Hillary Clinton joins Obama now as the greatest danger to the economy and the stock market.  If they are rebuked by the electorate then the US economy and stock market will be unleashed and growing again in December just in anticipation of change.  But right now we expect the economy and stock market will now decline faster even than it has so far this year.  The bottom will probably move out to at least Election Day in November because Clinton is beginning to scare people.  Trump appears to be a White Knight this year.  He is calling attention to the Clinton-Obama incompetence and that is frightening people who did not realize how incompetent and corrupt the administration has been.  Under an honest American Government Hilary Clinton would already be facing charges for email violations of national security.

 

Looking back at Democrat Lois Lerner’s IRS harassment of Conservative sympathetic organizations in 2012, it is amazing that the Obama administration has not yet been sued for their illegal NSA and IRS harassment of innocent Americans.   Back then my wife and I were told by the IRS that we owed about $14000 with all the penalties they were adding and would have to appear in a DC court within three months.  I recomputed our taxes and told the IRS that they owed us $17 (we overpaid).   They ignored us so I then went to H and R Block and they computed that the IRS actually owed us $19.  Then the IRS stopped harassing us.  Friends of ours reported similar Obama-Holder-Clinton harassment.  Apparently a storm was brewing because of Obama/Holder/Lerner deliberate unconstitutional abuse of power.

 

Obama and his Justice Department and IRS were corrupt and harassing my wife and I for this blog and for belonging to a Historical Society.   Other historians were also harassed.   Federal personel attended TNT rallies and took down the names and addresses of people attending that asked for information at tables they had set up.  Even friends of ours in fundamentalist church organizations were also planning to take the IRS and Obama to court.  But Obama’s persecution was still not as bad as the Clinton Administration was when Clinton started monitoring Church pastors and ordered that when pastors criticize his corrupt government they be threatened with the church loss of its tax exempt status.  Back then their administration killed the family of a Green Beret recluse at Ruby Ridge and massacred over 70 men women and children of a Mormon sect in Wako Texas.  We don’t need another Clinton in power.  Obama and the last Clinton were bad enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsDBAixXJdM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9-Ih4H70MM

 

But now Obama and Hilary are even worse because they have been illegally using the NSA to tap the lines of political critics and reporters like James Rosen, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and a former West Virginia Governor.  The governors were illegally spied on, attacked, and temporarily discredited by the Clinton-Obama Administration so they would not run for President in 2012.   The two NJ State employees who were illegally framed for Bridgegate continue to this day to deny the fabricated Clinton-Obama charges and the case against then has been suspended for years.  Obviously Hilary Clinton and Obama illegally use the National Security Agency to sabotage people who expose the administration’s illegal harassment of political critics.  It was obvious they used the NSA super-computer to create the “Bridge-Gate” incident by piecing together random NSA phone and Internet records in a record two weeks time.   It is obvious from that speed that it was done that it was all illegal harassment and false federal accusations.   If there was any truth to the charges the trial would have already taken place.  But they know that a trial will expose the Hilary-Obama corruption.   American security has been compromised and NSA has helped Hilary and Obama make the world a more dangerous place.  Why didn’t they tap terrorist conversations instead and save American lives?  Why did Hilary and Obama first overtly lie and accuse an American-Jewish film maker of causing the Islamic terrorist riots and the murder of Americans in Libya. 

 

By illegally diverting NSA and the FBI to harass American critics Clinton and Obama have used them similar to the KGB.   Perhaps that is why the FBI has not charged Hilary Clinton yet for her home computer security violations.  Former Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama are responsible for the diversion of American National resources away from exposing corruption, and Islamic Terrorism, to their political harassment of Americans, and even to their fast and furious gun running to Mexican drug lords that resulted in the deaths of an estimated 30,000 innocent Mexicans.  Would Hillary spill the beans if she were prosecuted? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/justice-departments-scrutiny-of-fox-news-reporter-james-rosen-in-leak-case-draws-fire/2013/05/20/c6289eba-c162-11e2-8bd8-2788030e6b44_story.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-20825061
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/230367-mexico-amb-fast-and-furious-qpoisonedq-mexico-public-opinion-of-us

April 15, 2016 Less than a decade ago, the world economy sank into Obama’s Great Recession: beginning the deepest and most widespread downturn since the Great Depression of 1929-1936. Since the stock market fell in 2008, recovery has been long and slow, marked by persistent bumps in the road along the way. Nonetheless, a small fragile economic recovery has indeed taken place. The S&P 500 index rose more than 92% over the past five years until market volatility kicked in during the second half of 2015. So far in 2016, every one of the six major US stock indices has remained below the levels set in May of 2015. And still everyone on Wall Street is blind to the evidence that the world is now in chronic economic decline and rising social disorder. Evidence exists that the 2016 stock market blowout is now about to start!

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp

Abbot and Costello explain Obama and Hillary

COSTELLO:  I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject.  Terrible Times.  It’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO:  That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%. 

 

COSTELLO: You just said 5.6%.

ABBOTT:  5.6% Unemployed.

COSTELLO:  Right 5.6% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.

 

COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO:  WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?

ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed.  23% are out of work.

 

COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT:  No, Obama said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed.  You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

 

COSTELLO:  What point?

ABBOTT:  Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed. 

COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work. 

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

 

COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.

 

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number? 

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo. 

 

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Democrat.

COSTELLO:  I don’t even know what the hell I just said! 

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like Obama and Hillary.

April 6, 2016 Tesla’s Ludicrous Model X P90D—an electric all-wheel-drive luxury SUV—comes loaded with pollution and dangerous technology.

            The liquid-cooled lithium-ion battery pack (90kWh nominal) has safety issues as well as energy conversion and transmission issues that have been blatantly ignored.   Tesla Motors Model S electric cars are known to have caught fire after their lithium-ion battery packs were damaged.  The batteries are the largest component of the 2.5 ton Ludicrous P90D car weight.  MIT reported that the Electric-vehicle’s battery packs are made of hundreds to thousands of battery cells, each of which contains a flammable liquid electrolyte.  The lithium metal itself is inherently unstable especially if it gets in direct contact with water and creates dangerous flammable hydrogen gas and intense heat.  But the most Ludicrous stupid oversight of all the environmental idiots who claim Ludicrous is environmentally friendly is the fact that those stupid environmentalist apparently don’t know that coal and oil are burned to generate most of the electricity to recharge the Ludicrous batteries.  And when you consider the electrical transmission, AC-DC conversion, and charging losses that add 50% to the thermal and chemical pollution, the Ludicrous is much more polluting than a modern gasoline or diesel engines.   But then everyone knows the entire EPA bureaucracy is biased and not very bright.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/521976/are-electric-vehicles-a-fire-hazard/

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/lithium_ion_safety_concerns

April 4, 2016 The cyclic collapse of the US stock market is now imminent. An update is now relevant after another year of unprecedented manipulation of the economy by the US FED and many national banks.

            The world money supply has been increased so fast that it makes the US FED look cautious in comparison.  In spite of the $21+ Trillion Obama US debt expansion, the US economy is now faltering.   Worldwide there have been large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), referred to as quantitative easing (QE).  Despite lowering bank discount rates close to zero additional measures were needed to achieve a pitifully small 2% growth target.   Negative interest rates will initially occur if we enter an economic depression. 

            The aim of the QE program was the injection of a large monetary stimulus into the major world economies to boost nominal expenditure and thereby increase domestic inflation sufficiently to prevent a great depression.  Since the major world economies did this virtually in unison there has not yet been a great disequilibrium or destruction of national currencies.  But the result has already been stagnation and tens of trillions of national debt that would bankrupt all the major world powers if interest rates were to only hit 5% again (even if no payments were made to reduce national debts).  5% Prime Interest Rate has been the US historic average prime interest rate.  The Prime Interest Bank Rate even hit 16% at the end of Jimmy Carter’s “stupid party” administration when terrorists invaded the American Embassy in Iran and held sixty Americans hostage for 444 days until President Regan was elected on his promise to kick the Ayatollah’s ass.

            America has been taken hostage again this time by the Obama administration and the corrupt stupid-party politicians.  Americans of all incomes have now unified to sweep all the corrupt and stupid politicians out of office regardless of their political party.  But it is too late to stop the impending recession.   It will likely be worse than we warned a few months ago because the FED has delayed the correction too long.  Now it looks as though we will be in a recession for most of the remainder to this year.  Originally we predicted the recession would bottom in April and recover by this summer.

            The decline in the stock market started late in 2015 and is now showing up in all the financial and economic indicators.  That means Obama and his corrupt “Stupid Socialist Party” will be thrown out this year in disgrace.

            U.S. home resales have fallen sharply in a potentially troubling sign for America's economy which had been thought immune to the global economic slowdown.

http://www.cnbc.com/existing-home-sales/

            Factory orders have been declining since the end of 2014.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=factory_orders

            The Leading Economic Indicators have peaked at almost the same levels as before the first Obama recession.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=LEI

            Construction spending seems to have peaked at a level below the Bush Administration peak.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction

            The ISM Manufacturing index appears to be tanking.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=ISM

            The fake under reported Obama caused unemployment rate stands at 5%.  The under reported real unemployment rate stands at about 10% but when the additional under employment caused by Obama’s crappy-care (30 hour part time exclusion for federal medical benefits), the real unemployment rate now approaches 20% for the first time since FDR’s Great Depression of 1933.

            The shrewd businessman, Donald Trump appears to know how to sort out the Obama/Clinton mess.   Trump knows that “Free Trade” is not the same thing as Mexico giving free land and tax breaks and loans for American companies to move manufacturing to Mexico.   Trump knows free trade is not the same as China unilaterally taxing American imports or refusing to import many American products that their people desire.   Donald Trump knows that Americans know that Obama is totally incompetent and Hillary is corrupt to the core.    Trump knows how to build an honest productive organization, a government of competent people, not prevaricating corrupt political hacks.  And Americans now are beginning to like Donald Trump’s ability to distinguish reality from the liberal news media and the Clinton-Obama bullshit.

           

Feb 12 2015 All the five major indices we follow have now broken down and have given sell signals in both their price and cash flows. The DJI was the last to fall.

        One of the turning points in the 2012 presidential campaign was when Republican nominee Mitt Romney privately said that 47 percent of the population -- supporters of President Barack Obama -- were people who are "dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it."  He was correct but it was not politically correct and unfortunately Romney lacked the courage to have the data documented to prove the point.  “PunditFact” a “stupidparty” offshoot not only proved Romney’s point but Louis Jacobson, in his effort to discredit Romney shows how the situation actually is now much worse.  Slowly welfare is creeping in everywhere with socialized education and medicine.  Thus children, seniors, and individuals in many working families are also receiving welfare since the “stupid party” took over.

“PunditFact” posted, “Just because you’re receiving means-tested (welfare) benefits doesn’t mean you’re not working. According to 2012 Census Bureau data, roughly 23 percent of households with at least one working adult received means-tested benefits.

For Medicaid, 28 percent of recipients between the ages of 18 and 64, worked full time, according to the Census Bureau. (Another 15 percent of recipients in that age group worked part time.)

Other means-tested benefits show considerable overlap with the population of working adults. Roughly 60 percent of food stamp recipients who were of working age and weren’t disabled were employed while receiving benefits, according to a Census Bureau sample calculated by the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.”

  Instead of discrediting Mitt Romney, PunditFact proves that the spread of welfare is much worse than Mitt Romney said.  Almost all American families are now partially on the dole today with some sort of aid, scholarship, training, medical, senior or other program.  It is called creeping socialism and it can destroy any economy.  The socialist cure for poverty actually is a creeping contagion of self pity and resentment that drops the entire population into a state of “equality of poverty.”  That is why the Soviet Union collapsed and why the replacement of socialism in the USSR and China with free-enterprise has revived all them and other former communist socialist nations.  That is why Obama’s “stupid party” welfare has destroyed the American economy just as it is destroying the most socialist of European economies.  The American cure is to give the entire Obama-Hillary “stupid party” the boot so that the market economy can re-boot and investments will flourish again.   Socialism is the root cause of the Obama-Hillary induced American.  Giving socialism the boot this year is why Trump and 15 other candidates saw an opportunity in running for President.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jan/28/terry-jeffrey/are-there-more-welfare-recipients-us-full-time-wor/