http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html
He has yet to start his domestic army to turn America
Reports showed Dec. 28 commodity contracts outstanding across the members of the GSCI are headed for the biggest monthly contraction since last June. Commodity speculators reduced net-long positions across futures and options by 11 percent last week, the lowest since the summer. Gold holdings reached a four-month low, while copper dropped for the first time in five weeks. Natural gas hit the lows of last May.
World Economies
Bolivian army and police seized buildings occupied by Spain
The pound strengthened against the euro after data business confidence for 2013 improved this month, indicating the control on spending is working.
Stocks in the fastest developing markets are lagging behind global equities for a third year as faster economic growth does not outweigh the losses from government interference in corporate management and markets. The shares in Brazil , Russia , India and China China
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
American Economy
The US dollar is starting to fall under pressure as it is expected tax revenue falls off in 2013 and the 2014 projected deficit explodes.
This week
Dec 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/22 not given-suspected very bad as the -12.3% last time.
The Mortgage Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from the previous week to while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. See
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Oct 4.3% year over year up from 3.0%
Continuing Claims 12/15 3206K 3200K 3200K stable 3225K
New Home Sales Nov 377K up slightly from 368K
Consumer Confidence Dec 65.1 down sharply again from 73.7
Dec 28
Chicago PMI Dec 51.6 up slightly from 50.4 where anything below 50 is a contraction.
Pending Home Sales Nov 1.7% down sharply from 5.2% last month.
Crude Inventories 12/21 -0.6M down again from -.96M
Next Week
Jan 2 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/29
Jan 2 10:00 AM ISM Index Dec
Jan 2 10:00 AM Construction Spending Nov
Jan 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Dec
Jan 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Dec
Jan 3 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Dec
Jan 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Dec
Jan 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/29
Jan 3 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/22
Jan 3 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/29
Jan 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Dec
Jan 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec
Jan 4 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Dec
Jan 4 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Dec
Jan 4 8:30 AM Average Workweek Dec
Jan 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Nov
Jan 4 10:00 AM ISM Services Dec
Jan 4 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 12/29
Markets January 2, 2012
The market will likely have a sigh of relief today. Many think this is another opportunity to take profits because the Fiscal Cliff still looms in 60 days.
Retirees are moving money from IRAs to Roth IRAs to avoid higher taxes on accumulated income. Consumers are already spending most of their disposable income so higher taxes translate directly into reduced consumer consumption. We are already seeing deflationary pressure and are tip toeing around a great double dip Obama depression like the on the socialist FDR had. He is not considered a socialist today but was considered one in his time. It just shows the USA
But by April 15, tax revenue will be increasing because people are taking profits now before the tax increase. Taxes on those profits come due next year. So the benefits of the surge in tax revenue will sharply reduce deficits because it will be exaggerated two fold in 2013 mostly because people are taking profits before 2013 begins. But that extra tax in 2013 will not be available in future years and the extreme increase in taxes next year will cause people to try to postpone taking 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 profits. That will make 2014 a disaster because deficits will rise sharply in a likely deeper 2013-16 recession. The USA will look much like Greece
So at present many are taking profits before the new taxes but it may not be advisable to re-invest profits right now as they are doing. We know that because volume is up but the market is just churning. What Obama is doing will make things progressively worse. He is not bright enough to know the revenue in 2013 is not his policy but the negative reaction to his negative policy (which is a positive tax windfall). That revenue will be wasted again and tax revenue will plummet in 2014 because there will be few corporate profits in 2013.
The DJ Rails continue to contradict the DJIndustrials and there still no DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. But evidence is that the two are now converging and it is a matter of there being another rally.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last 3-month shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal. But bulk trade is rising and October looks like a turn around beginning.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The USA VIX is possibly setting up for a major sell signal. It seldom has stayed low this long. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. Volume indicated churning in December most probably profit taking before tax rates rise.
Stock market update:
No comments:
Post a Comment