http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/figure1.html
We are believed to be in the fifth great “Ice Age” which started almost 2.6 million years ago with the Earth being about 4.9 billion years old.
The contention that global warming
is caused by humans burning fossil fuels is hotly contested.
More than 30,000 scientists
including Edward Teller say global warming is natural not man made.
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2008/07/01/30000-scientists-sign-petition-global-warming
The problem is that the FED has not
begun cutting it’s buying of US
The US
The US America
Obama will provide arms and
ammunition to the al-Qaeda rebels who now lead the opposition to the Syrian
state after saying Bashar al- Assad’s forces used chemical weapons in the civil
war against the al-Qaeda rebels.
Once again we warn that if you
check your ETFs against the underlying commodities or sectors you will find
many have no correlation. We have heard
ETF advocates say the lack of correlation is due to the false values of the
commodities and the “true market assessment” is from the ETF traders. That ETF claim is not just delusional; an
eventual collapse of the ETFs will show that those ETF claims are overt
fraud. If your ETF does not correlate
with the underlying stocks or if the ETF does not give you a method for weighting
the values of the components then you are at extreme risk that the ETF is
either managed incompetently or fraudulently and you had better beware. We predict these popular derivatives will
underlie a future financial crisis.
The stock market will rapidly lose
value as interest rates rise because the return on market risk will be dropping
two ways. First the risk free rates will
be higher. Secondly all the low interest
debt accumulated since 2007 will be rotating into higher interest debt. That is what killed Greece
Stocks suffer three ways with
higher interest rates; debt cost and inflation on profit margin, competition
from new bonds offering higher returns and low risk, and the end of the bull
market that always comes with higher interest rates and a decelerating
economy. We in 2013 are entering a
situation similar to the end of Jimmy Carter’s last term. We may have a sharp recession before the dust
settles. But world currencies will also
come under attack again and George Soros will no doubt lead the attacks. Then he will switch back to gold. The stock market is now tightening the noose
around the FED’s neck. The Fed stands to
lose 60% or more of the value of their QE3 balance sheet assets sharply
increasing American national debt.
Two weeks ago the Hindenburg Omen
was confirmed. A Hindenburg Omen
predicts a rising chance of a stock market crash because when a market has
reached beyond its grasp. The major fund
market manipulators begin to reinforce one another to gain additional profits
by signaling which sectors are hot and which sectors will soon be
abandoned. Right now they say dump
dividend stocks and by the cyclicals.
That happens when there are
insufficient funds to float all the boats so they informally signal which
overextended sectors will be sunk. This
is when the market is churned.
Consequently they polarize the market and crush the small investors
caught in the downdraft that wipes out previous profits and other investors who
have no idea the market is being orchestrated.
So the Hindenburg Omen is an indication that the market is contrived not
necessarily illegally but in large part because of a type of group-think that
evolves. Suddenly a particularly large
wealthy group acts systematically and abandons some stock groups in favor of
others.
The Hindenburg Omen is not
predictable (or at least not in the past) because the manner in which the
wealthy reach a consensus is not given in any text book. Jim Cramer is currently a primary agent in
the creation of stock market group-think and he is the ultimate Hindenburg
Omen. When Jim Cramer ever becomes bearish
you know the stock market is up in flames.
The Hindenburg Omen is a complex
set of conditions that all must be met for an occurrence to be valid:
The number of New York Stock
Exchange 52-week highs and lows must both be greater than 2.5% of the total
issues traded that day. This is market
polarization into the haves and have-nots.
The smaller of the 52-week highs
and lows must be greater than or equal to 79.
The NYSE's 10-week moving average
must be rising. This is market extreme
polarization of the market.
The McClellan Oscillator, a measure
of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and
declining stocks, must be negative saying the haves have peaked and the average
is falling.
The number of 52-week highs cannot
be more than twice the number of new 52-week lows. Otherwise the market is not divided enough
and money is still flowing into the market.
The first occurrence of a
Hindenburg Omen must be matched by at least once more within 36 trading days
for there to be "confirmation" of the signal. This is a confirmation that it is persistent
and therefore probably running out of steam.
Once a Hindenburg Omen signal has
been confirmed, the probability of a market downturn within the next several
months of 5% or greater is 67.8%. There
is then a likelihood of progressively more severe drops.
Bloomberg reported that Gold
traders are the most bullish in two months since the retreat in equities from
an almost five-year high and a weakening dollar spurred demand for bullion.
Jim Cramer on the morning show June 6 indicated the best
thing for the market right now is to have FED thinking polarized and indecisive
with the job numbers not strong so the FED does nothing… yet not weak so
investors do not sell. He got his wish
and the market erased half the recent losses.
World Economies
Euro-area bonds fell after negotiations among the 27-member
bloc’s finance ministers stalled over the weekend in Luxembourg
FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level
reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached
previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.
The NYSE is similar
to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of
15% inflation since then and no similar market advance.
The SandP is
parabolic at old inflation adjusted resistance levels which were set in 2000
and 2007 and at this level it has not even matched inflation. Simple mathematics says that after a 66.6%
drop in value it has to go up 300% from the low to get back to breaking even. The market (accounting for inflation) was
lower in 2007 than in 2002 and is lower now in 2013 than in 2007. And MSNBC/Pravda says we are recovering
because we are at the same stock market level we had in early 2000 before the Clinton
American Economy
Jun 17
Empire Manufacturing Jun 7.8 better than -1.4 ++
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr negative --
NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 52 better than 44 +
Jun 18
CPI May 0.1% erratic -0.4% - -
Core CPI May 0.2% deflationary 0.1% - -
Housing Starts May 914K up from 853K ++
Building Permits May 974K contracting from 1017K ---
Jun 19
MBA Mortgage Index 06/15 -3.3% bad decline 5.0% ---
Crude Inventories 06/15 0.313M contracting from 2.523M -
FOMC Rate Decision Jun QE# is out of control and a stimulant
like opium not an economic stimulus. ------
Jun 20
Initial Claims 06/15 354K worse than 334K ---
Continuing Claims 06/08 2951K manipulated 2973K ---
Existing Home Sales May 5.18M improved 4.97M +++
Philadelphia Fed Jun 12.5 manipulated -5.2 ---
Leading Indicators May 0.1% worse 0.6% ---
Natural Gas Inventories 06/15 91 bcf down 95 bcf -
The Markets June 24, 2013
The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock
market is about to be shattered. The
great increase in wealth exists in paper like shares of stocks and bonds. When the bull market ends the wealth effect
ends. This Bernanke QE3 is not
sustainable it is another bubble phenomenon that pops when it deflates..
Anyone getting into the stock market at these inflated
values will take a hair cut soon.
This market appears to be both polarized and topping due to
systemic churning of small investors by market manipulators like MSNBC’s Jim
Crammer who is their primary cheer leader.
They rotate in and out telling small investors to buy and then sell
right after they do.
Volume on the latest market advances was extremely low. The volume is now 30% higher on
declines. So far the markets failed to
break the previous highs of 2000 and 2007 and investors will know they are late
selling when Jim Cramer says to sell.
The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance
or topping. It is still a bearish sign
that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to
0% short term interest rates.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long
The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or
even 70 before the bear market ends.
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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