Sept 27, 2013 America has had the best health system in the world since WWII but may soon have Obama’s version of Britain’s socialized medicine. Complacency in America has set in from hearing Obama Administration and Senate Democrats cry wolf every week on something else. This administration negotiates with Syrians, Iranians, and Russians but refuses to negotiate with Republicans to reduce government and get on a path to eventually balance the budget. The only thing that got a quick compromise was the bail out of banks after the collapse of the stock market that occurred shortly after Obama was elected in November 2008. And if you were around at the time the Democrats in Congress were even able to get the infamous ACORN organization funded with taxpayer money that day. So that seems to be the strategy again and again. This time the socialists say the government will shut down in mid October. MSNBC was told this morning that the shutdown would not truthfully happen until early November. They said that if the budget was not resolved by then there could be a panic and a drop in the worldwide USA credit rating was possible as well as a government shut down. But in truth a reduction in government size and spending is exactly what is needed to save most nations in the world not just Cyprus and Greece.

Only just 30 years ago the largest percentage group in graduating classes of doctors was the children of American doctors... and America had the pre-eminent health care system in the world.   Doctors loved their work and encouraged their children to enter the profession.  American doctors are now telling their children to go into something else and many are planning to cut back work and retire early.  In addition to the degradation of the American medical system with socialized medicine, the current generation of American children has been forced out of the medical profession by fraud knowingly perpetrated by socialist supported attorneys who profit from fraud.  We cannot afford 50% of our people with entitlements lying by claiming back injuries and other faked infirmities.  There was a time in America when such people were filmed water skiing and doing strenuous games and the movie clips could be put on television to embarrass the social dirt bags and their dirt bag attorneys that were cheating.  But today such shameless behavior is protected by equally shameless lawyers by making it illegal to keep records of multiple claims made for the same faked infirmity.   For instance a well faked back claim is a gold mine for a dirt bag lawyer today because the fraud is convincing and it can be used over and over because there is no database kept for such fraud because stopping fraud might cause 80% of the socialist lawyers to go out of business for lack of clients.  It is so bad that most Americans now personally know someone benefiting from the big socialist fraud industry that lobbies against records that would prove the frauds.  On the other hand there are many databases on doctors and any time a doctor loses in court to an ambulance chaser… that doctor is hounded out of business with what appear to be fake malpractice claims for faked damages they are accused of.  Therefore in this Obama socialist climate of Octomoms and fraud, fewer than 10% of new medical students are now from established American families.  Most are immigrants or from first generation immigrant Americans.  When you look at a picture of a graduating medical school class today it looks like they are almost all from Asia and Africa.   Honest Americans with ethics and principles are being driven out by government fraud and corruption of our system. The current generation of American children has been forced out of the medical profession by fraud knowingly perpetrated by leftist attorneys who do not allow the creation of databases to identify and stop their most lucrative source of income, faked accidents and injury fraud.  Instead the socialists in government are now keeping records of everything they can of what you and I read, say or write for later use when they can get a court order to use the data to silence us voluntarily or involuntarily.  The system targets good Americans not people like the Boston Bombers.  It is sickening that leftist women are out there demonstrating for the caught bomber that they fallen in love with.

 

 We cannot afford Obama’s socialized medicine paying women to have free fertilization treatments so they can have fatherless children to make more than $100,000 a year in child welfare payments like Octomom and currently more than 90% of women on welfare.   Fertilization treatments are free in the original version of Obama’s socialized medicine.  It is a 70% problem for women in Obama’s entire ethnic population.  Out of wedlock children is now a 20% problem for the entire population of young American women on or off welfare.  It is the biggest women’s issue after free contraception and free abortions.  It is one of the sad reasons that so many people are now in favor of abortions.   Some say they wish all the parents of leftist’s had gotten free abortions.   The socialist welfare class has the highest incidence of abortions.  Abortions were a form of socially accepted genocide in socialist countries and Hitler and Stalin reasoned, why stop aborting lives after birth.  If the people can’t work or support socialism they thought they had no right to live.  The people who gave Hitler, Stalin, Mao and others their absolute socialist powers were the very people that they exterminated first.  They were people who could not or would not work.  Unfortunately liberalism and socialism is a mental disease and soon they kill anyone who does not agree with them.  Read some of the stuff they are discussing now.  When America chooses to eliminate any single one of our Constitution’s Bill of Rights we will know a socialist dictatorship has taken control.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-robert-m-myers/fourth-trimester-abortion_b_3665226.html

 

http://townhall.com/columnists/stevedeace/2013/08/17/are-you-for-4th-trimester-abortions-n1663606/page/full

 

 

Short interest is something many companies report and it tells you whether funds are optimistic or pessimistic concerning individual stocks. See: http://wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html

 

You can see that AAPL rose recently because funds covered their shorts.  You can see BAC is under selling pressure.  You can see that the boost in China’s reported dry shipping caused short sellers to recently bail out of DRYS.  Interestingly BA has short sellers piling on as MSNBC tells people to buy in.  It looks like short sellers are just starting to leave CAT alone.  It has been heavily shorted this year.  See:

http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/short-interest.aspx

 

It is interesting that the sellers stop selling at the NYSE 9700 index level of the previous high.  But the sellers are running out of wiggle room and some point they will stop pretending that there is any support.  That day is likely coming very soon.  See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

Approximately 82% of the NYSE is controlled by fund managers.  The little investors are at a great disadvantage because group-think is influenced by particularly MSNBC and small investors do not understand their language.  It is highly probable that their automated investment criteria are modeled and that they have a good idea when risk is high and what other large investors are planning.  Such group think could lead to the binge of short selling when Obama was elected and the period of suppressed short selling that occurred recently.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NYX

 

JP Morgan Directors should be voted out by share holders for not immediately firing Jamie Dimon for his mismanagement costing many $billions without an end even in sight. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-shows-id-2013-9

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-23/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-defends-his-management-in-a-2009-phone-call

 

Sept 26, 2013  Careful how you use the ARMS or TRIN Index.  It appears to be useful but a longer term predictor.  At the following site only the 89 DMA chart is lined up with the Willshire 5000 index and it shows that our current level is at a high in ARMS and that usually a short term decline of 5% to 10% occurs that precedes a sharp longer term decline later of 15% to 50%.  It shows the main decline occurs four to six months after the peak in ARMS.  That would imply that the first decline we are about to see may be only 5% to 10% and people will see a recovery and think it is over but then the 15% to 50% decline would likely occur near the summer of 2014.

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/volume/arms.htm

 

Sept 25, 2013   Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has warned Congress that the Treasury will be at the end of its ability to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the country from defaulting on its payments by mid-October. 

 

Sept 24, 2013   Nationalized Medicine and then pretty soon Nationalized Banking!  Quantitative Easing took all the individual small bad red ink balance sheets of the banks and put it on one huge Fed red ink balance sheet that American taxpayers now owe!  Those are all opinions publicly expressed this week.  But today, David Darst of Morgan Stanley predicted America will one day create jobs again at the rate of President Regan’s million new hires a month when American voters throw the current bums out of the Presidency and Congress.  Throw out the socialist bums who spy on their own freedom loving people while letting the Moslem Boston Bombers go undetected!  Throw out the bums who target children, nuns, Catholics and Pentecostals for pat-downs and let Moslems go unchecked.  Throw out the bums that use drones on American soil to spy on farmers and hunters who own guns.  Nussel said the people are waiting for Republicans to take economic leadership.  Santelli said the Democrats are like the Borg, all in mind controlled lock step and that everyone knows that Obama’s Nationalized Medicine is not ready for prime time so why not delay it a year and work instead on the $17 trillion deficit Obama is creating even without Nationalized Medicine.  Santelli said even the President and the US Congress have exempted themselves from Obama’s Nationalized medicine. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324665604579080921594857770.html

 

A former FBI official agreed to plead guilty to leaking classified information about a counter- terrorism operation.  Sachtleben was implicated in the leak investigation after authorities recently subpoenaed a reporter’s phone records and compared them with other evidence gathered in the inquiry.  The Justice Department was recently accused of violation of American freedom press when it secretly collected the records from AP reporters and editors over a two-month period in 2012. 

 

Sept 23, 2013  Barron’s (page M 42) reported that the Arms index, also known as the short term trading index (TRIN), predicts stocks are about to fall in price.  It is a number derived by dividing (the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks) by (the volume of advancing stocks divided by the volume of declining stocks).  For that ratio of ratios, a number higher than 1.0 is an indicator of a market turning lower.  The NYSE was at 1.68 and the NASDAQ hit 1.28 on Friday.  The NYSE MKT (the former American exchange of smaller companies) Arms index rocketed up to 5.93.  Worldwide, stocks wavered near their highs of 2007 that occurred when the bubble burst for the Dodd/Obama/Barney Frank liar loan entitlement program that bankrupted many poor and uneducated people enticed by low interest loans the way quantitative easing entices weak minded socialists to go into debt that ultimately bankrupts them or chronically impoverishes them.

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/market-indicators.html

 

World Economies Sept 27 2013

Takeshi Fujimaki, a former noted investment adviser now a member of Japan’s upper house of parliament, said that a fiscal crisis in Japan is inevitable by 2020.

 

Japan inflation accelerated to the 2008 pre recession level.

The new Iranian leader snubbed Obama Wednesday and broke with predecessors Thursday by condemning the Holocaust.

Home prices in Ireland appear to be recovering from the low.  While Britain’s business investment declined over 2% the GDP improved 0.7% as disposable income rose ending the 3.2% decline due to their recent relapse into recession.

 

Iran sees weakness in American leadership as an opportunity.  They have intercontinental missiles which they hope to arm with nuclear weapons and think they can negotiate with Obama.

China’s economy slowed this quarter as growth in manufacturing and transportation weakened contradicting bulk trade and other official signs of an expansion pickup.  Increases in business-investment and real estate revenue also slowed, the survey from New York-based China Beige Book International said based on responses from 2,000 people from Aug. 12 to Sept. 4 as well as 32 in-depth interviews conducted later in September.  The results “show the conventional wisdom of a renewed, strong economic expansion in China to be seriously flawed,” China Beige Book President Leland Miller and research director, Craig Charney said.

 

Markets in Europe continue to waver near their 2007 highest levels as investors now worry about the lack of a positive catalysts going forward.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market hit previous resistance levels and has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

American Economy

Sep 24

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul 12.4% improved from 12.1% ++

FHFA Housing Price Index Jul 1.0% up from 0.7%  ++

Consumer Confidence Sep 79.7 fell 2% from 81.8

Sep 25

MBA Mortgage Index 09/21 5.5% sharply lower 11.2% --

Durable Orders Aug 0.1% flat after plummeting -7.4% --

Durable Goods -ex transportation Aug -0.1% flat after plummeting -0.8% --

New Home Sales Aug 421K 390K down from 394K --

Crude Inventories 09/21 2.635M up this week -4.368M  +

Sep 26

Initial Claims 09/21 305K down 1% from last weeks 309K +

Continuing Claims 09/14 2823K up 4% from last week 2787K ---

GDP - Third Estimate Q2 2.5% flat and low 2.5%  +

GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 0.6% down from  0.8% +

Pending Home Sales Aug -1.6% still declining -1.3%  --

Natural Gas Inventories 09/21 87 bcf NA NA 46 bcf 

Sep 27

Personal Income Aug 0.4% up from 0.2% +

Personal Spending Aug 0.3% up from 0.2% +

PCE Prices - Core Aug 0.1% flat at 0.1%  deflationary --

Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep 77.5 improved from 76.8  +

 

Obama policies have provided no net new jobs created since 2006 leaving the young with high unemployment.  Three out of four Obama jobs are part time jobs.  That means there have been seven lost years due to the mortgage derivative mess caused by the Barney Frank/Obama/Dodd Liar-Loan scandal that was meant to increase minority home ownership.  In fact the unethical socialist liar loan scheme collapsed and reduced overall American home ownership from 66% before liar loans to 62% after the collapse.  This administration has hurt every group that voted for Obama and has given the wealthiest 1% a 26% increase in earnings.  Obama voters are getting equality of poverty.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate

 

The Markets Sept 27, 2013

The sellers are milking every dollar they can out of the market but avoiding breaking down through the previous high to avoid another sell signal.  That can not go on very long.

 

Those stocks owned a large percentage by institutions which are not declining may be more stable in a sharp decline of the market.  Those stocks with few institutions holding them may be shorted more by hedge funds when the shorting begins and the indices.

 

The current market decline is the longest so far this year.

 

Tuesday and Wednesday’s patterns started the same as Mondays. Tuesday it ended with a let loss again.  We expect that pattern will be similar today but soon we expect a sharp downward break when the buyers run out of cash.

 

Monday, there was early selective selling of experienced investors who are raising cash but then they went on the sidelines and allowed the inexperienced to recover market most of the losses.  There is still very little evidence of short selling.

 

Last Wednesday the market ended at a new high but it was not a breakout.  Thursday was a critical day to see if there was a breakout but the run up failed.   Friday the American markets gave a massive short term ARMS (TRIN) sell signal and earlier this year gave the longer term Hindenburg Omen.

 

All the over priced equity markets of the world are the result of QE inflating world debt by making world debt more affordable.  It is unsustainable and has withdrawal symptoms that make it virtually impossible to discontinue QE.   The benefit of QE is equivalent to giving the homeless big discounts on wine and liquor to stimulate retail sales for an Obama bottoms up economic growth program.  All that happens is the rich wine and liquor corporations and their executives get richer.   This Bernanke QE cure is the most stupid economic policy this Obama administration has undertaken and the USA is becoming hooked on it.

 

Ultimately it leads to chronic economic pain as Japan has felt for 23 years or economic death. QE suppresses interest rates and allows individuals, corporations, and governments to eventual choke on debt.

 

If you look at these next two plots it says this bull market is over because prices are about 50% higher than the historical average and the dividends are very low.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 

World trade started to grow as China begins to replenish iron ore stockpiles. Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up again this week.  Be careful because in normal times the BDIY would be well over 10000 and with the recent trade improvement it is still below 2000.  It is still below where we were in 2012 before Obama claimed our economy improved 2% and China claimed theirs grew 7%.  Socialists always have to claim such nonsense as their ship of state sinks.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.  Investors are now as complacent as they were in 2007 at the peak.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Sept 20, 2013 Obama said he will negotiate with Putin and Assad but not with the Republicans who want to save America from his national health medicine. America has had five years of Obama’s economic medicine and is getting pretty sick of it. The way the current QE inflated stock market will likely unravel is by beginning each day on the up-side to bring in all the optimists out of the woodwork. Then when the afternoon approaches the sellers come in to take back most of the gains. Most former short sellers had already covered when they lost influence in the market six months ago. Their covering no loner pushes stocks up as evidenced by the topping out of the markets near 2007 highs in the indices. Then those who are long will begin to cover in earnest and begin even shorting specific stocks again. Then when the buying dries up we will see short selling in earnest and the short sellers will then be in the money. They will cover some of their shorts to take profits and we will see the market seem to recover from time to time as a result. But each time the short sellers will have more cash to work with and after a few days will drive the market lower causing margin calls. That is when it gets ugly and those on margin are hit hard.

The Fed has been spending the future of the USA by borrowing against the future to reduce today’s’ borrowing costs thereby lowering interest rates today to stimulate consumer borrowing today.  They have essentially moved 9% of higher interest rates from the present into the future and if they truly were to unwind the Fed debt it would raise rates and depress growth when they unwind.  It is the same problem that individuals get into when they spend more than they earn and borrow against their future.  Occasionally they get in over their head and go bankrupt like Cyprus or get bail-outs like Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal.

 

WSJ has indicated today that Jamie Dimon is being forced out of JP Morgan.  The Justice Department appears to be continuing to investigate JP Morgan until Jamie either quits or is in jail.

 

Today Squawk Box said American companies were pressured by this administration to buy problem companies like Countrywide.  Warren Buffett indicated it was unwise to talk about it because of the Attorney General’s record of harassment.   Those companies that helped the administration are now being punished by being treated like the criminals who profited from the Barney Frank liar loans when in fact some like Bank of America were forced to take on Countrywide and were literally harassed then and now are harassed again and forced to pay for all of bankrupt Countrywide’s bad behavior and losses.  The conclusion is that the next time… no corporation will cooperate with government again based on the bad behavior of this administration’s leaders.

 

Today the new Apple-s device goes on sale and MSNBC had one but they were told not to try any of the applications.  All it could do was display a pretty picture of the applications.

 

Sept 19, 2013   What America knows about Ben Bernanke is that he knows very little.  What Americans know about Yellen is she knows less than Bernanke.  In the past America had recognized brilliant economists leading the Fed.   The Fed needs new “outside” blood not inbreeding and imbeciles.  The Fed Chairman has now become another political hack presidential appointment under this administration. It takes Bernanke four times as many speeches that are three times as long as former chairman Greenspan’s speeches yet Bernanke tells us little of value. The Fed said on Sept 18 that it will await more evidence that the economy is actually improving before it scales back its US $85billion/month debt-buying program.  Meanwhile the Obama government spends $144 billion/month more than it takes in while the fed inflates a stock market equities asset bubble much worse now than the real estate bubble that Barney Frank and Dodd created with their liar loans backed by Fannie and Freddie.  It was the collapse of a stock market equities asset bubble that caused the Great Depression.  The Fed has already created an equities bubble the size of the 2007 equities bubble that broke when the liar loans collapsed. 

 

The greatest scandal now is the disappearance of both credible American leadership and credible American economic policy which had been the reason for faith in the American Dollar.  Without belief in American acumen the next best reason for China and Japan and all net exporting nations buying American dollars is the even more precarious economic problems now affecting every other major economy.

 

Sept 17, 2013   Yesterday the Dow and NYSE both failed to reach their last highs that occurred after the sell signal in July 8. It was a second opportunity to raise cash near the high.  It then retreated 0.4% after Obama indicated he wants a government shutdown so he can blame someone again for the results of his leading from behind.

 

Scott McNealy, Wayin’s Chairman, was on fire this morning on Squawk CNBC.  He said Obama was almost criminally incompetent. 

He also said unions always have claimed they exist because employees need protection from bad or evil management.  The facts show only 6% of private enterprise workers are unionized but 36% of government workers are unionized.  That should say something about how bad our government has become.

He said 75% of Obama’s job creation claim is in part time jobs.  Now the Obama government claims it is not their fault.  The Obama economist on the show said that it is the wave of the (Obama socialist) future as if he thinks it is inevitable.

https://twitter.com/scottmcnealy

 

Jamie Dimon has cost JPMorgan stockholders at least another $700 million in fines related to the London office trading mistake that has already cost the stockholders more than $6 billion in losses.  The fines are the result of the cover-up or lack of internal investigation by Jamie while it was going on.  Jamie needs to quit before this administration bankrupts the bank.

 

President Obama used the fifth anniversary of the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers to tout his administration’s economic accomplishments.  Funny because the Bush administration handled it not Obama.  Obama has handled the unemployment situation which he now blames on Republicans in the current Congress.

 

Apple’s stock price started to decline again and manipulator Ack---- finished pumping the stock and finishes up dumping what he bought.

 

Sept 16, 2013   The socialist US government is on the brink nearing the end of its fiscal rope and no matter what they do, it will sting.  Eventually the investor will no longer follow Fed interest rates and the Fed will lose control and have to raise rates to regain control.  But with the socialists in control they would not raise rates because the economy would slow even more.  They will likely allow simultaneous inflation and unemployment with the “Misery Index” (inflation plus unemployment) rising higher than the 20+% it hit under Jimmy Carter.  The socialists will lose the state and federal elections and Socialists involved in harassing American patriot (non-socialist) regular citizens will finally be busted and go to jail.

 

The NYSE hit its peak shortly after we gave the sell signal July 8.  We think it is likely to be a market similar to the Carter market.  It will likely move sideways without making significantly higher highs, and once it hits a major low it will not make new lower lows.  Essentially the market will become range bound until we get a government that once again supports the American Constitution and American free enterprise.

 

Summers pulled out of the contest for Fed chairman and markets rose in anticipation that that loose money will continue to help world economies by devaluing their debt denominated in dollars.  Others just think Summers was Obama’s pick and Summers is just not competent enough.

 

A WSJ pole says only 30% of Americans think Obama’s health care is a good idea.  Will people in Tennessee be paying the same as people in California?  If so, how can they afford it?  If they are subsidized by rich states why won’t every retired person move out of the rich states?  But then taxes will rise and California will become poor too.  Exactly, socialism leads to equality, but it is equality of poverty.

 

The pace of growth in New York State’s manufacturing sector slowed in August and the New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index slipped to 6.29 from 8.24.

 

World Economies Sept 20 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 

Markets in Europe continue to waver below their 2007 highest levels.   Guillaume Dumans, co-head of a European research firm said, "Investors are now worrying about the lack of potential positive catalysts going forward."

 

Ten thousand al Qaeda troops from Pakistan and Iraq are now in Syria and have pledged to wipe out Christians and other minority groups including the secular freedom fighters and the government’s minority ruling sect.

 

Japan still reels from their devastating nuclear disaster and the stark evidence of the gross incompetence of their engineering management as well as their government leadership.  At the top of their era of national pride in 1988 they proclaimed they committed no war crimes in China, that America was a barking dog, and that they had a national program to take world leadership in computers.  But their economy as well as all of the Asian economies is based on their expertise in pirating and coping not in creating technology.  And Asian manufacturing is not based on technology either but on slave labor in unsafe facilities.  It is the dismal situation of Asia and the Middle East not the Obama Administration that makes America look like the least terrible of all world evils.

 

The reason for China suddenly buying hard assets like gold and iron ore and also sharply increasing purchases of American debt in July is not an improving economy but they seem to be positioning themselves for a burst of their own bubble by disgorging themselves of their own currency for hard assets and American dollars.  They may be getting ready to devalue their own currency to strengthen their balance of trade by making their products cheaper again.

 

Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as worries about American military involvement in Syria ebbed and output resumed in Libya.

 

China said it would impose preliminary anti-subsidy duties on U.S. solar products, a move that could intensify trade tensions.

 

Industrial production in Germany took a surprising drop of 1.5% in July indicating the recovery may not be real.

 

Canada and USA housing starts posted biggest drops since January.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market hit previous resistance levels and has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

American Economy

Sep 16

Empire Manufacturing Sep 6.3 a 25% drop from 8.6--- per Bloomberg

Industrial Production Aug 0.4% up from 0.0%  Obama contradicts the above.  Who is correct Bloomberg or Obama?  The Obama data is as falsified as China’s data is.

Capacity Utilization Aug 77.8% flat 77.6% 

Sep 17

CPI Aug 0.1% flat from 0.2%

AM Core CPI Aug 0.1% flat from 0.2%

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jul $31.1B improved from -$66.9B +

NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 58 down from 59 ---

Sep 18

MBA Mortgage Index 09/14 11.2% improved from -13.5% ++

Housing Starts Aug 891K down from 896K -

Building Permits Aug 918K down from 943K --

Crude Inventories 09/14 -4.368M got worse -0.219M - -

FOMC Rate Decision Sep 0.25% unchanged    

Sep 19

Initial Claims 09/14 309K up 3% from 292K ---

Continuing Claims 09/07 2787K up from 2871K --

Current Account Balance Q2 -$98.9B still extremely high -$106.1B --

AM Existing Home Sales Aug 5.48M up slightly 5.39M ++

Philadelphia Fed Sep 22.3 another worthless erratic manipulated statistic up from 9.3 - --

Leading Indicators Aug 0.7% up from the downward revision of last months 0.6%

Natural Gas Inventories 09/14 46 bcf down 65 bcf  -

 

If you look at this next plot you must conclude Obama policies have provided no net new jobs created since 2006 leaving the young with 20+% unemployment.  In fact it is much worse because three out of four Obama jobs are part time jobs.  That means there have been seven lost years due to the mortgage derivative mess caused by the Barney Frank/Dodd Liar-Loan scandal that was meant to increase minority home ownership.  In fact the unethical socialist liar loan system collapsed and reduced overall American home ownership from 66% before liar loans to 62% after the collapse.  This administration has hurt every group that voted for Obama and has given the wealthiest 1%  a 26% increase in earnings.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate

 

 

The Markets Sept 20, 2013

Wednesday the market ended at a new high but it was not a breakout.  Thursday was a critical day to see if there was a breakout but the run up failed.  Friday the markets declined.  All the world’s equity markets are the result of QE inflating world debt by making world debt more affordable.  It is unsustainable and has withdrawal symptoms that make it virtually impossible to withdraw.  Ultimately it leads to chronic economic pain as Japan has felt for 20 years or economic colapse as Cyprus and Detroit experienced.  The prospect of America now repeating the mistake of Japan and becoming hooked on Quantitative Easing is extremely high.  In 1989 Japan was on the verge of overtaking the USA as the largest economy and had five of the worlds 10 largest banks.  The foreign markets are up today because they see Quantitative Easing as the end of American world economic leadership just as it put an end to the growth of Japan in 1990.  QE is a national addiction to debt that ultimately leads to a flat-lined socialist economy where all growth is negated by inflation.  QE suppresses interest rates and allows corporations as well as the government to choke on debt.

 

The stock market is testing the resistance level for the third and last time (shoulder 1, head 2, and now second shoulder 3).  If you look at these next two plots it says this bull market is over because prices are about 50% higher than the historical average and the dividends are very low.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 

Probably this is the week stock markets will make critical tests of whether they confirm the developing head and shoulders sell signal with a sharp decline.  When the stock prices give a sell confirmation sell orders can be expected to cascade and a 20% decline could occur in just a day or two selloff.  The WSJ continues to shows the S&P at its critical resistance level and the DJI in a much worse condition.  If the stock market falls 20% on many will be buying stocks again with about 50% of their cash and holding off for the next dip.  Stocks that have fallen 40% or more but which have good balance sheets would have no good reason for being sold down so low. 

 

World trade started to grow as China begins to replenish iron ore stockpiles. Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up again this week. 

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Sept 13, 2013 JP Morgan said Friday it will spend another $1.5 Billion per year just to handle the current administration's new regulations and investigations. This administration has put the American economy into the standard socialist death spiral and it will not end until our citizens restore a government dedicated to free enterprise. The cost of socialism is far more than the cost of the direct government taxes. It is also the cost imposed by all their regulations and fear of harassment. And that is only the beginning.

Socialism eventually infects every branch of government.  Today even churches across the nation are being forced to stop their pot luck diners not because anyone ever got sick but because the kitchens of their individual members have not been inspected by government health officials and many cooks did not wear plastic gloves when preparing the food for the church pot luck dinner.  That is how invasive the government has gotten in the northern states. 

 

A socialist government perverts the Constitution and costs at least four times as much as it directly taxes the citizens because it taxes every stage of private enterprise and adds layers of regulators and inspectors and fines. And it shuts down free enterprise businesses that complain and government agents have known to remove all their records and bankrupt them just in the process of harassing them with unwarranted investigations.  Donald Trump University was harassed into bankruptcy and now he is harassed because he still opposes the socialist tyrants.  Socialist government has the manpower and police power to imprison any innocent person.  And once power drunk socialists are democratically elected as both Hitler and Stalin were democratically elected, no one knows about the gulags, torture, gassing and genocide that go on.  Finally they either are destroyed in wars or they peacefully return to a free enterprise system and restore economic growth as both Eastern Europe and China are trying to do today. 

 

America on the other hand is sliding downward and this administration is the first that now reads and hears everything we write or say or that we even access using the web or other electronic media.  FDR was a socialist but he died and Truman, once a shop owner, did not continue the American slide into socialism.  FDR was a lost decade, Carter was a lost decade and Obama has caused at least one lost decade which thanks to socialized medicine could be a fifty year decline toward economic and intellectual bankruptcy.  That is why this economy is flat lined and already worse than Jimmy Carter had it when Reagan was elected and restored a sane free enterprise economy that reduced our dependency on the Middle East as fracking is helping today.  One can imagine how much worse our economy would be now if the EPA shut down fracking.  But the Bush administration effectively stopped their effort. 

The following is part of the entire Abraham Lincoln speech that is available on the web.

"We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them--they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Their's was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights; 'tis ours only, to transmit these, unprofaned by the foot of an invader, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform. 

 At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by our own hand.                         Abraham Lincoln 

The noble ancestors Abraham Lincoln refers to are our Founding Fathers who American socialists now refer to disparagingly as “Dead white men” or WASPs.

These following Abraham Lincoln quotes are also available and are why the Obama administration wants gun controls and spies on Americans and searches old Nuns and little blond girls while giving Moslems a free pass.  The socialists are still afraid of the American people. see brainy quotes.

Don't interfere with anything in the Constitution. That must be maintained, for it is the only safeguard of our liberties. 

We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.   

 

Sept 12, 2013  Apple hit a recent high and then plunged 8% back to where it was a month ago.  But the market as a whole remains close to the upper resistance level it hit just over three and again one month ago.  This is the potential second shoulder of a stock market head-and shoulders sell signal forming.  If there is no upward breakout soon this will be a major market sell confirmation.  It looks like Apple may be leading the market and this week it is already 8% below the recent high that it hit on an activist’s false rumors of a dividend payout coming soon to shareholders.

 

If one looks at their prospectus, ETF’s and many other marketed securities say they are backed by credit default swaps from banks.  Another financial crisis could make many of the banks fail again and make many securities worthless because they have little or no real physical assets backing their purported value.  The FED is making banks get out of the material commodity business now because strange transfers have been occurring without the movement of inventories.  It makes it appear as though the material stock piles are very large and valuable while all the bank is doing is transferring assets on paper so that they can be counted multiple times.  That is fraud similar to the policy China has been using to exaggerate imports, exports, and growth.

 

As Delta stock shoots up 10% we see how the very definition of being included in a major stock index distorts valuation.  Alcoa and the others plunged 10% after they were removed from indices.  If one stock in the DOW 30 is swapped out each year that is a 3.3% turnover per year or a 0.33% boost in distorted value each year or 33% or one third being an untruthful increase in value per century over and above all the other distortions possible.  The reality is that growing companies are added and over-the-hill companies are removed all the time so the distortion on the Dow is much larger because it only represents the fastest growing companies.  The NYSE is much broader and more representative of the market and that is why we only use it for our buy and sell analysis.  It is now testing its trend line again but on a cash flow basis it already indicated people are now net sellers.

 

"As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.”--- Democrat socialist H.L. Mencken, Baltimore Evening Sun, which appeared in the July 26, 1920 edition.  That was during the roaring twenties and just before FDR’s great depression. 

 

In the 1930s when socialist, FDR set up the Social Security System it was a US Government Pension system for workers who paid into it.  But under the socialists in power today they are saying it is now an entitlement system for anyone with anger management disabilities (Ritalin program), obesity and other disability claims (doubled under current socialists), and physical impairments.  The current administration no longer guarantees Social Security is for the workers who paid for the program because 25% of young workers are unemployed and another 20% of young people are having children out of wedlock and are a growing young population on welfare.  Without productive people paying into the system there will only be enough for entitlements not retired workers.  The welfare, wedlock and obesity problems now affect well over 50% in the current president’s strongest voting block and they are exposed to more than twice the probability of violent crime as in the general population.  NYC police had a policy of searching suspicious street loiters for illegal guns and dropped the NYC crime rate more than 50% but the current administration says that is illegal.

          

Sept 10, 2013 

A possible strike against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad would lead to an escalation in the civil war rather than put an end to it, and Christians are concerned about them becoming a lightning rod for the Muslim radicals at their doorstep.  A compromise, the removal of Syrian poison gas stockpiles may now be possible.

 

World Economies Sept 13 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 
Industrial production in Germany took a surprising drop of 1.5% in July indicating the recovery may not be real.

 

Japan is considering a reduction in corporate taxes.

 

China has started replenishing some of its stockpiles indicating production is no longer declining.

 

Canada housing starts post biggest drops since January.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

 

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

American Economy

Sep 9

Consumer Credit Jul $10.4B down sharply -30% from last months $13.8B, again Obama administration economic reporting appears incompetent at best, manipulated at worst.

Sep 10

JOLTS - Job Openings Jul 3.689M down 10% from 3.936M ---

Sep 11

MBA Mortgage Index 09/07 -13.5% sharply lower from up 1.3% ---

Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.1% up from which is not good -0.2% --

Crude Inventories 09/07 -0.219M bad again means price rises again -1.836M -

Sep 12

Initial Claims 09/07 NG because two states did not report

Continuing Claims 08/31 NG 2871K down from 2951K is No good because 2 states did not report

Export Prices ex-ag. Aug -0.1% down from 0.0%

Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% down again from -0.4%-- bad for exports

Sep 13

Retail Sales Aug 0.2% down from 0.4% --

Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.1% down from 0.6% ---

ProducerPriceIndex Aug 0.3% sharply higher 0.0% a 3.6% annual rate ---

Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell sharply from 82.1to 76.8 the lowest level since April, indicating household spending has not picked up.

If you look at this next plot you must conclude there have been no net new jobs created since 2006.  That means there have been seven lost years due to the mortgage derivative mess caused by the Barney Frank Liar-Loan scandal that was meant to increase minority home ownership.  In fact the unethical socialist liar loan system collapse reduced overall American home ownership from 66% before liar loans to 62% after the collapse.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate

 

 

The Markets Sept 13, 2013

Global bond yields showed investors ignored 56 percent of Moody’s and 50 percent of rival Standard & Poor’s rating and outlook changes last year.  But since SandP downgraded Obama’s deficit debt it is being harassed just as the IRS was used to harass many individual American citizens and groups last year and Donald Trump is being harassed now by New York State.  American freedom is being attacked now from every socialist government angle.

 

The stock market is testing the resistance level for the third and last time (shoulder 1, head 2, and now second shoulder 3).  If you look at these next two plots it says this bull market is over because prices are about 50% higher than the historical average and the dividends are very low.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 

Apple plunged 8% after breaking above $500 on false rumors of a dividend disbursement spread by the same activist who just got out of Dell.  It will be interesting to see if the activist who spread the positive but false rumors of Apple dividends is one of the persons who just sold their Apple sock.

 

Very soon the stock markets will make critical tests of whether they confirm the developing head and shoulders in market price average.  When the stock prices give confirmation sell orders can be expected to cascade and a 20% decline could occur in just a day or too selloff.  The WSJ continues to shows the SandP at its critical resistance level and the DJI in a much worse condition.  If the stock market falls 20% on top of the current decline of 9% from the top then many will be buying stocks again with about 50% of their cash and holding off for the next dip.  Stocks that have fallen 40% or more but which have good balance sheets would have no good reason for being sold down so low. 

 

World trade starts to grow as China begins to replenish iron ore stockpiles. Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up again this week. 

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Sept 6, 2013 Very soon the stock markets will make critical tests of whether they confirm the developing head and shoulders in market price average. The market cash flow already gave that warning on July 8. But when the stock prices give confirmation sell orders can be expected to cascade and a 20% decline could take only a day. Section C of the WSJ today shows the S&P at its critical resistance level and the DJI is in a much worse condition.

Americans seem to reject Obama’s new found war interest by a factor of two to one.  It is not good for American presidents to use the IRS and the American intelligence agencies and other government regulators to harass people.  There are even claims that some in this government use friends in campaign contributing insurance companies and other service industries to harass targeted people by raising rates, and withholding services.   And they even smeared Donald Trump and drove him out of his attempt to create a new enterprise to educate future business entrepreneurs.  Many self made millionaires have established Universities in America but Donald Trump was harassed and not allowed to educate future entrepreneurs.   And the corruption extends into university classrooms where the administration socialist mentality is being forced on students by public university professors who unprofessionally rant racist, anti-Christian, anti-white old men nonsense.  Incompetent leftists still stay in the education business but Trump has been harassed out because he is an old white man and worse yet a Republican who speaks out against government incompetence and corruption.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/09/05/professor-censured-gop-rant/2771991/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20jLo200wiw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im7aeBEQ5w8

 

 

Sept 5, 2013   It was common knowledge that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had poison gas and used it to kill the Kurds.   And Obama must have also known that Saddam Hussein used poison gas in his war against Iran.  There was no doubt that Saddam Hussein used poison gas.   But Obama and Kerry both opposed the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and until recently they seemed to oppose overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.  In 2009 VP Kerry said "Syria is an essential player in bringing peace and stability to the region.”  That was what Obama told him to say anyway.  VP Kerry even met with Assad at least six times, and on one occasion, was photographed, dining together with their wives at the Naranj restaurant in central Damascus.  One has to wonder if Obama or Kerry have any conscience or scruples and just are bringing us to the brink of WWIII because President Obama drew a red line in the sand and the world ignored him and said it was silly because the world (including Obama) knew that Bashar al-Assad had already used gas while killing some of his first 100,000 citizens and now suddenly he crossed a red line?  There is a peaceful option that could get UN support and that is to ask Bashar al-Assad to destroy the remaining chemical agents and give him a chance to back down before they make Bashar al-Assad into an al Qaeda hero or leader.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10283045/John-Kerry-and-Bashar-al-Assad-dined-in-Damascus.html

 

The WSJ explicitly said this week that wage stagnation is Obama’s fault not the fault of American businesses as the Occupy Wall Street leftists liked to shout. It’s actually a product of  Quantitative Easing (massive FED spending to distort interest rates), businesses’ uncertainty about Obama’s new taxes, thousands of pages of new regulations, Obama health care rationing, higher business health care costs for full time employees, and higher employee-benefit costs all of which the Obama administration has caused.  That is why the Wall Street Journal says Obama's economy hits his own voters hardest, that the real median household income "has fallen by 4.4 percent since Obama’s 'economic recovery' began in June 2009." Mr. Obama was re-elected with only 51% of the vote.  The WSJ reported he won the poorest and least educated voters with 60% of the youth vote, 93% of blacks, 71% of Hispanics, and 64% of those without a high-school diploma.  Those under age 25 experienced an income decline of 9.6%. Black households saw their income tumble by 10.9%, while Hispanic households' income fell 4.5%. The incomes of workers with a high-school diploma or less fell by 8%.
 

Obama’s recovery caused the median black household income to fall by just over $4,000, and Hispanic households lost $2,000. The highest jobless rates by far are for the key components of the Obama voter bloc: blacks (12.6%), Hispanics (9.4%), those with less than a high-school diploma (11%) and teens (23.7%).  But that makes sense only if Obama voters are not motivated by being productive and working for a living; they are motivated by a quick buck, entitlements like welfare, free cell phones, food stamps, rent subsidies, plus $2000 per month per fatherless child etc.  And to think Mitt Romney got into so much trouble when he warned that very soon the voters seeking governmental entitlements would soon exceed the number of voters who studied hard, work for a living and pay the taxes.  Romney was right.  Obama got 51% of the vote and America got a socialist style declining economy where the end result is ultimately equality of poverty.  But when the rich got poor in the USSR and Eastern Europe the poor starved. 

"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." - Winston Churchill 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323324904579042830303535934.html

 

Research by University of California shows that since the Obama recovery started in June 2009, the average income of the top 1% grew 11.2% in real terms through 2011 and the bottom 99% saw their incomes shrink by 0.4%.  As a result, 121% of the gains in real income during Obama's recovery have gone to the top 1%. By comparison, the top 1% captured only half the income gains during the Bush expansion, and 45% of the gains under Clinton's expansion.  So it is a big Obama fantasy that socialism helps the poor.  Winston Churchill was right when he said socialism leads to equality of misery except for the ruling class of communists who get their palaces, free dining and entertainment for communist party members.  Putin lives lavishly like a Czar in Russia.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/073013-665705-income-gap-grew-sharply-under-obama.htm

 

Sept 4, 2013   S&P has now accused Attorney General Holden and President Obama of maliciously filing the $5 Billion suit against them in retaliation for its 2001 downgrade of U.S. debt.  Everyone knew that was the situation at the time but it seemed too obvious to be newsworthy.  S&P has to fight to the death now because if the Obama Administration wins the retaliation lawsuit SandP will be bankrupted and freedom of the press and freedom of honest American companies will be lost and corruption of the Eric Holden justice department will become entrenched.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324202304579053142604688438.html

 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/sp-says-that-us-government-filed-lawsuit-as-retaliation-for-downgrade-222228051.html

 

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/03/mcgrawhill-sandp-lawsuit-idINL2N0GZ1H620130903

 

 

What will happen in a real war if Syria launches a multiple attack on Israeli cities and launches new longer range Russian missiles at the US destroyers each time they detect a Tomahawk missile launch?  Does the “iron dome” get confused or does the Tomahawk get confused?  Do the Israelis scramble jets and bomb Syria bringing Iran into the war?  Killing more innocent Syrians should be avoided.   It would not be good if the incompetent socialists in Norway gave the Peace Prize to the incompetent American socialist who starts WWIII.

 

Sept 3, 2013   It appears that President Obama is being taunted and possibly being blindly led into a naval catastrophe that could be worse than Pearl Harbor.  Obama has created a NSA security system to spy on Americans which the Snowden experience shows is dangerously flawed and both Russia and China may have now been able to turn our satellite iron dome system into their system.  For over a year Russia has been selling what they claim are satellite and ground based missile systems to mid east countries and claiming Russia understands how our systems work and they claim even our stealth fighters can be shot down at their pleasure.   If they have learned to break into the NSA system as Snowden did then they may have new confidence that they can defeat our defense systems.  That would explain why Syria and Russia almost appear to be taunting Obama to attack Syria.  Unless the USA has a way to suppress the new Russian system and keep our system functional we and Israel may now be vulnerable.  Syria might now have the capability to sink our Mediterranean and Red Sea destroyers and kill thousands of Israelis on the ground.   This situation only adds to economic instability and we do not want a WWIII to get us out of the Obama depression.

 

Snowden is a socialist poster child for America’s newly exposed incompetence. Snowden feels at home in Russia and China.  The NSA that Obama has spying on Americans sounds like the dream system for China, North Korea, Syria, and Russia to tap into and perhaps even take control of at our most vulnerable moment.  What is most frightening is the appearance now that Syria and Russia are actually taunting Obama to put up or shut up.  They seem to know something we don’t know and the free world allies are slowly backing away from supporting Obama.

http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/11/22/sorry-folks-israels-iron-dome-wont-work-in-asia/

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/international/31-Aug-2013/russia-to-deploy-star-wars-missile-system-in-2017

 

 

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 

Canadian employment rose three times faster than economists forecast on gains primarily in part-time work and service industries.
 

German factory orders in July, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 2.7% from June, the Ministry in Berlin said Thursday. Economists had forecast a July drop of only 1 %.

 

German bonds dropped, sending German 10-year yields to the highest in 17 months as QE is phased out.

 

Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, the longest streak of gains in nine months, as shipping lines surged and the Federal Reserve said it saw a moderate recovery in the world’s biggest economy.  The Baltic Dry Index rose 4% but is it real?

 

The US trade gap surprisingly widened last month. Phasing out QE will dry up some of the money in the USA that was previously spent on imports.  That plus shale oil and gas will reduce the income of emerging countries and reduce the USA trade gap.

 

Dubai’s benchmark index tumbled Tuesday to the lowest point in seven weeks, erasing an earlier gain, after the report of a missile launch in the Mediterranean.

 

The Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern said the Swiss gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the second quarter down slightly from the March report when it expanded by 0.6 percent.

 

China’s Premier Li Keqiang’s took steps to cut the state’s role in the economy forcing investors to reconsider bailout bets as another $1.3 billion of bonds in businesses including electric car batteries, hydropower and biofuels mature by the end of the year and $7.1 billion in 2014. His predecessor Wen Jiabao turned China into the world’s biggest maker of solar panels through spending including $47.5 billion of credit lines that crippled the industry with overcapacity.  China’s LDK Solar just defaulted while Suntech Power Holdings Co.’s attempts to renegotiate obligations prompting investors to gird for losses as $8.4 billion in renewable energy bonds that come due in 2014.   Suntech was once the world’s biggest solar panel maker.   The 2014 securities of LDK slid down 74.4% in face value. That compares with the 70% loss of Bonn-based Solarworld.   . 

 

According to Nomura Holdings Inc., Asian emerging markets suffered a crisis last month when investors pulled out billions of dollars on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting back USA QE Treasury bond purchases.   The crisis is not over until the phase out of QE is over.

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline.  It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high.  It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

 

 The French market has continued to decline since year 2000.  At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

American Economy

Economists are expecting to see the 10-year Treasury yield go over 3 percent before September is over. That in turn would push mortgage rates higher.  Interest rates have been rising at a rate of 1% every three months.

 

Sep 3

 ISM Index Aug 55.7 up slightly from 55.4 – This was falsely reported by MSNBC as a sharp unexpected increase.

Construction Spending Jul 0.6% up from 0.0% Currently MSNBC employees seem negative on housing after the big funds sold and took profits and are now waiting for a lower entry point.

 

Sep 4

MBA Mortgage Index 08/31 +1.3% improved from -2.5% +++

Trade Balance Jul -39.1 got worse from -$34.2B --

 

Sep 05

Challenger Job Cuts Aug 56.5% up from 2.3% --

ADP Employment Change Aug 176K down sharply from 200K----

Initial Claims 08/31 323K down from 331K+++

Continuing Claims 08/24 2951K down from 2989K+

Productivity-Rev. Q2 2.3% up from 0.9%  manipulated, not statistically believable

Unit Labor Costs Q2 0.0% down from 1.4% manipulated, not statistically believable

Factory Orders Jul -2.4% down sharply 1.5% ----

ISM Services Aug 58.6 improved from 56.0 ++++

Natural Gas Inventories 08/31 58 bcf down from 67 bcf –

Crude Inventories 08/31 -1.836M down sharply from 2.986M –

 

Sep 06

Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 169K is a strong indication of gross manipulation from162K by shifting the numbers from last month to this month. The other way of looking at it is that they lied and reported a full 100,000 more people got jobs in July than was true. This would all be government jobs anyway even if true because the Nonfarm Private Payrolls declined. But it makes no sense that there was government hiring of that magnitude in August. Clearly the Obama administration is fabricating economic data again. Obama’s administration is ignorant corrupt and no longer credible enough to lead even from behind.

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug 152K declined 161K ---

Unemployment Rate Aug 7.3% declined from 7.4%  The true rate is about double this number.  It is the most falsified (intentionally understated).

Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% wages rising -0.1% +

Average Workweek Aug 34.5 up from 34.4++

 

The Markets Sept 6, 2013

The American banking system is being dismantled by Obama.  At one time Japan had five of the 10 largest world banks and then America recovered.   Now the Obama administration is  fragmenting the American banking system that will make America less competitive again.  America is not likely to recover while Obama stays in office.  He and Eric Holder should resign or be impeached for the good of the country.  They are divisive and are making America the object of world hatred and ridicule.

 

Syria, the phase out of QE, and the debt ceiling are three possible destabilizing influences in the traditional stock market breakdown month of September.  We think the world economy has stagnated and the stock markets will be range limited until Obama is replaced just as it was until Jimmy Carter was replaced by Ronald Regan.  Carter believed the world would run out of hydrocarbon fuels by 2020 so he said it was futile to increase supplies.  Regan believed in supply side economics and oil prices dropped from $80/barrel to $34 within a year.  Under Obama it went from $54 back up to $110/barrel.  Obama believes we will never run out of oil but that burning hydrocarbons will cause global warming.  Regan said the glacial cycle of cooling and then warming is normal and has almost nothing to do with humans.  Edward Teller and intelligent scientists and engineers at the time agreed with Regan.   The Teller petition still can be found on the web.

 

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s highest peak as it did this time so it was possible to get out before the plunge.

 

 World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.  But it is up a little this week.  Is it real?

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia