Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Jul 25 Russia's middle-class increasingly made up of government employees not business leaders. Communist studies show that the majority of Russians approve of Putin's annexation of Crimea, and management of the Ukraine land grab. Yet state statistics show that five times more Russians are emigrating in Putin's third term. They need to throw the bum out!

Jul 23  Stock market 'Black Swan' fear is at record high now says Anthony Mirhaydari of the Fiscal Times.  Small Cap stocks are the market to peak at highs.  Komal Sri-Kumar, President of Sri-Kumal Global Strategies and a senior fellow at the Milken Institute says Yellen and the FED are not just making up the data, they are useless as far as stimulating economic growth.  They have only created a stock market bubble that will blow away $4Trillion in American wealth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-economy-is-worse-than-you-think-185727383.html
 
Jul 22  Obama is rapidly making America into a chaotic third world country unable to lead and unwilling to follow anyone else.  It is becoming highly probable that Iran’s nuclear program will be bombed into oblivion within the next twelve months as the Obama administration and the Putin administration become irrelevant and the EU isolationists gather strength.
 
We see hope in a new generation who understand how unfairly the socialist welfare state is treating them.  They are being radicalized.
 
NASDAQ is now near 2000yr highs.  QE3 is still flowing into the economy but is scheduled to go to zero by October.  Then they plan to begin contracting but it is likely the socialists will balk as it could swing the election even further against them.
 
The way to help the bottom 20% of Americans in annual income is not a minimum wage but  with an earnings multiplier (negative tax rate) that would be 25% of income below the poverty level of about $20000/yr and decline to zero credit near the a median income of about $40,000/yr.  That would provide a real incentive to work.
 
World Economy
Jul 25 
Gold is low in price given the instability descending on the world as Moslem terrorists run amuck across the oil rich countries trying to create a Caliphate empire ruled by psychopathic killers.  It is no longer considered appropriate to gloss over Moslem’s mutilation of women and their preying on boys and girls once they reach the age of nine and can marry or join a harem. 
 
Jul 23  A Hamas rocket exploded Tuesday near Israel's main airport, prompting a ban on flights.  European political leaders warned against a rise in Moslem immigrant anti-Semitism after supporters of Hamas terrorism used racist slogans and rioted.
.
Jul 22  Putin was responsible for the death of 298 innocent travelers last week.  Putin gave Russian terrorists in the eastern Ukraine missiles capable of shooting down commercial aircraft above 15000 feet.  Then Russia tried to deny the fact and to blame the Ukrainian government.
 
The world is now in complete Obama chaos and Israel could now completely destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities once the Hamas missiles are all destroyed and the Iron Dome rockets are restocked.  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey now see Iran and ISIS as the greatest threats to Mid East security and are beginning to realize that Israel is an oasis of sanity in a terrorist Moslem zone of human slaughter and abuse of women and all children from age of nine and up to maturity.
 
The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by.
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
 
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jul 18
Mich Sentiment Jul 81.3 declined from 82.5 -
Leading Indicators Jun 0.3% declined from 0.5%
Jul 22
CPI Jun 0.3% flat 0.4% -
Core CPI Jun 0.1% deflationary 0.3% ---
FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.4% limping along 0.1%
Existing Home Sales Jun 5.04M limping along from4.91M
MBA Mortgage Index 07/19 2.4% wild scatter in data -3.6% 
Jul 23
The economic indicators under Obama socialism are almost as useless and those put out by China and Russia.  The economic growth corrected for inflation is nil.
Jul 24
Initial Claims 07/19 284K down from 302K  still too high compared to job openings.---
Continuing Claims 07/12 2500K flat from 2507K
New Home Sales Jun 406K sharply lower from 504K shows that the previous good news was an Obama administration fabrication. --
Jul 25 
Durable Orders Jun 0.7% up from -1.0% + high scatter
Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.8% up from 0.0%+
 
The Markets
Jul 25  The US government will no longer guarantee that Money Market Funds do not break the buck.  That old guarantee protected cautious investors who invest in low interest short term debt so that they do not lose their shirts when a panic occurs and everyone tries to get into cash at one time.  Most “Great Depressions” are caused by panic selling not by economic catastrophes.  When the next stock market panic occurs volume will rise by a factor of three or four times the current average volume.  Stocks will plummet but typically within a few weeks they recover most of the losses. 
But soon after on the second plummet most people get the message and money flows out of the market for many months.  On average bear markets equities decline more than 50% in price.  This current market punished short sellers over the last two years so there are few shorting the market and that is why it is so overprices. 
We also no longer have short sellers as a cushion when they cover shorts because there are few shorts to cover.  So the next stock market panic will likely be sharper than recent panics.  That is good in a way if it is like the summer of 2011 and recovers almost as fast as it falls.  It is more in line with what one would expect with a meandering do-nothing, inept president like Jimmy Carter was when his policies cut off energy development like the current President did by stopping pipe line construction and offshore drilling.  The Jimmy Carter administration was also a foreign policy disaster like the current president.  We need a courageous forward looking president like Ronald Regan was to clean up Obama’s mess and bring peace to the troubled world Obama facilitated.
 
Jul 23
Insiders are now hunkering down for a period of turmoil on a scale that on the Skew measure, has never been seen before.  This can be seen with the S&P 500 SKEW index.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-black-swan-fear-record-182900100.html
 
Jul 22    Now the volatility index below is starting to rise.
Volume and volatility indicators are also increasing on market declines.  The sharpest declines during the Obama Administration since his election occurred during summers and the worst was in August 2011.
 
World trade is now down 68% for the year to date and down 38% in the last year and at a 15 year low.  It is down 88% since 2007 before Obama.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.
 
 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 
 World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)