Thursday, November 13, 2014

Nov 14 Obama care is a huge tax on the American economy and one of the primary reasons for the increase in Obama’s government waste and his economic failures. Under this enormous Obama tax he hopes to give 40 million people effectively another $10,000 welfare check every year in addition to their food stamps, cell phones, free tuition (not an education), child welfare, and disability payments for addictions. He is enabling millions more of American’s to now drop out and join an expanding addicted culture. In the past, those on welfare had to wait in the emergency rooms for services the way emergencies are treated in modern Europe. Obama thinks all the nation states of Europe are better off because he erroneously thinks they share a common national educational and medical systems. That is either an Obama lie or else it shows just how ignorant Obama is. Every EU nation state has its unique educational and medical system. The individual nation states of Europe are no bigger than the individual states of America. Only India, Russia, and China have large faceless national health services of the type that Obama wants and they are terrible systems just like Obama care.

The average Russian life expectancy of 70.8 years is nearly 6 years shorter than the overall average figure for the European Union, or the United States which have state services like or smaller than Massachusetts.
 
In China they have a normal life expectation provided they can survive childhood.  India’s system can't even be called a health care system from a Western perceptive.  India ranks last in healthcare compared to even backward OECD or BRICS countries.  Obama is moving America from a state regulated system to a collectivist system and he is lying about it or just ignorant.
 
Unemployment has resumed its climb as the Obama liar-loan recession teeters on the brink of a possible Great Obama liar loan Depression.  Initial jobless Claims rose 5%.
MIT Professor Jonathan Gruber Obama care’s architect confessed that he got the Democrat lame duck Congress to pass Obama care by playing on their abject stupidity and not calling it a tax.   He is arrogant and condescending, and the Supreme Court was smart and called it a tax and said it is a legal though deceptive act.  He said American lame duck democrats in Congress were ignorant and could not be told it was a tax.  The American people have just had an opportunity voted the ignorant democrats out of Congress.  Rep Nancy Pelosi swallowed Jonathan Gruber’s argument hook and sinker.  She has been removed from power by intelligent voters.
Pelosi Says She Doesn't Know Who Obama Care Architect Jonathan Gruber Is ... But This Video Proves She Does
 
Nov 13, 2014  A dramatic slowdown in housing and retail sales has appeared.  It shows in the housing mortgage numbers and in inventories in preparation for the Christmas season.  Usually this is when store inventories should be peaking.   That is a sharp drop off and further evidence the US recession is worsening in step with China’s, the Bricks, and the EU’s declines.  At the same time the FED is talking about finally tightening after ending the disastrous QE3 that stretched out the recession.  Our cash flow index shows cash has been flowing out of the stock market since the market cash situation peaked in September.  The NYSE, the broadest stock market index gave a head-and-shoulder breakdown sell signal Oct 7 and indicates the bear market decline has already penetrated the housing, small cap, mid cap, energy and Brick stock sectors.  The other sectors are still near their peaks.  Once the new bear market is publicly recognized the next decline is expected to be larger than the last one.  Our cash flow index showed the last 9.5% decline wasn’t even half what is needed for a capitulation.
 
A predicted FED rate hike in June 2015 would be consistent with a decline now because the FED is afraid to act before the market acts because if they act first they know they will be blamed for the anticipated total 60% stock market collapse that has occurred every 7 years since FED manipulation became pro-active instead of reactive.
 
World Economy
Nov 14  Now world bulk world trade is down 90%, but most of the decline is in commodities not finished products.  China and the USA have become less dependent on the “Lunatic Middle East.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 
The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by as markets are passing their 7year peak.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my
 
Nov 13 Germany's inflation figure still is under control with a yearly rise of 0.8 percent in October. France's yearly figure was a 0.5 annual percent rate last month while Spain's fell at a 0.1 percent annual rate.  An FDR type depression after the current Hoover type recession remains the greatest fear and has caused Gold prices to stay at attractive levels.  But 1933 type German hyperinflation could develop if people’s debt and spending increased because most world currencies are falling in value.
 
Germany just landed a rocket on a comet to show that we could destroy any comet that that threatened to hit Earth.   If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too and they also had a head and shoulders neckline breakdown sell signal on OCT 8.   
 
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.  They have had a head and shoulders breakdown sell signal on OCT 9.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.  Lately Americans have been investing in Japanese stocks.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitler’s and Stalin’s of the past. They have had a head and shoulders breakdown sell signal on OCT 15 but returned to previous highs.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
US home building and sales Oct dropped sharply.  Inventories dropped sharply indicating lower sales expectations this XMASS season.
Nov 12
Mortgage Index 11/08 -0.9% sharply down from an already weak number -2.6% ---
Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.3% sharply lower before the Xmas season 0.7%---
Nov 13
Initial jobless Claims 11/08 290K up from 278K ---
Continuing Claims 11/01 up from 2348K ---
JOLTS - Job Openings Sep 4.735M down from 4.835M---
 
The Markets
Nov 14   The current rally could abort any week now with an expected next decline of 10% to 25%.   As we transition into a clearly visible bear market, the length of each rally shortens up and the length of declines increases slightly so each rally is about half as long and less than the adjacent declines.  It will take more than a year for the market to drop 60% to get back to the December 2002 and 2008 lows.   This bull market has lasted a year longer than the last two did but it is now breaking down the same way.  This time next year we could be 40% to 60% lower.  It will be a cascade of  three to five NYSE corrections the first one just completed.  (see max and 6 month plots)
 
Nov 13 We are still in the Obama “Liar Loan” world recession.  When the “Liar Loan” mortgage derivatives caused the world banking system breakdown, Congress gave us the $1Trillion cash stimulus package and the FED pumped $4.5 trillion into the USA debt market to stop a depression that could result from the loss in the “velocity of money.”   Gold prices have fallen as a sign that a potential worldwide Obama depression is brewing, not inflation.   To see the collapse in world trade, use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when the world trade index was above 8000.  Now world bulk trade is down 90% but most of the decline is in commodities not finished products.  The USA have fortunately has become less dependent on the “Lunatic Middle East” for energy.  That is due to fracking which Obama resisted.  We need more pipelines to move the oil and gas safely.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 
This market has little volume or volatility and it is highly manipulated to provide the stability to pump up market prices.  This scenario is now similar to what happened when the 1929 Hover recession turned into a 1937 FDR Great Depression.  Hoover saw just a 60% collapse as we saw so far.  FDR saw another 80% collapse after a partial Hoover recovery.  When volatility picks up, past history says the market will plunge on high volume.  This is not a good moment in time for buying holding equities long-term.
 
 World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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