Monday, December 15, 2014

December 19 No corporation would ever be allowed to make a movie of President Obama where in the end they blow off Obama’s head and say it is a comedy. Yet the subject of a SONY 3rd rate movie was North Korea and in it they blow off the head of the Korean leader and they call that movie a comedy. That kind of movie is not free speech, it is sick and horrible. Sony did the right thing to stop the release. That movie did not represent the culture of America as Obama says. Sony acted irresponsibly and put the entire world under threat of future attacks like the Moslem terror attack on the American embassy in Benghazi. Yet Obama and Hilary Clinton at that time blamed and attacked that movie maker of a truthful movie about Mohamed that was later proven to have had nothing to do with the attack in Benghazi. No Moslems at all have attributed terrorism to that movie. Yet Obama and Hilary said they threw that movie maker in a jail and took away his free speech. The cyber attack on Sony should be a wakeup call that insults and slander are not within an American nor a free world definition of free speech. Demonizing or dehumanizing people is something akin to the behavior of Nazi, and ISIS not to the people of the free world. SONY deserves to be boycotted and put out of business. Obama is also wrong in criticizing Sony for halting the release of their sick movie about Korea. Obama shows he doesn’t understand that with free speech comes a responsibility to be truthful. If Obama begins a cyber war over this sick Sony movie America will have the most to lose.

We estimate the bear market will be back within two weeks.  The expected year end rally has peaked.
 
December 18   The Wall street Journal has branded self proclaimed Cherokee Senator Elizabeth Warren as the new leader of the “Stupid Party”.   Elizabeth apparently now also wants to run as the first Cherokee US President and boot out Hilary Clinton.  Wall Street’s Opinion Page on A17 on December 18, 2014 has the headline, “The New Stupid Party” featuring Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Until she got caught, she claimed she was Cherokee Indian because they suffered greatly on the “Trail of Tears” after they were driven out of the South.  In the 1980’s when universities were looking for minority faculty members Warren had put herself on the “Minority Law Teacher” list in the faculty directory of the Association of American Law Schools and in effect took the job away from a disadvantaged person.   She only took her name off that list when she gained tenure at Harvard in 1995 and realized she would get caught.  But she later repeated her false claims of Native American ancestry in her book, A Fighting Chance and says it was her parents fault if she was misinformed.   Acknowledged Cherokee genealogist Twila Barnes is incensed by Elizabeth Warren’s false claims to be Cherokee as late as 2012 and has documented her false claims.
 
The American housing market went into a tailspin at the end of September.  Sales had picked up in the summer and people rushed to the put houses back on the market in October but the market froze up,  In many New England towns houses haven’t had a signal prospective home buy visit for two months now and it is not much better elsewhere.  The economic pickup was nothing but administration “stupid party” glad-talk.  The stock market knows better and promises to resume its slide after the Christmas Season.  Oil prices have plummeted because demand has plummeted and will not bottom until demand and supply are balanced.  Oil prices then will slowly rise as the world recession eases toward the end of 2015.  The FED is waiting for the recession to finish tanking because the FED does not want to be blamed by Obama for his latest recession.  The authors of the 2008 Liar-Loan Recession were actually Senators Dodd, Frank, and Obama and they all blamed George Bush.  The Liar Loan debacle was a “Stupid Party” government attempt to redistribute home ownership to the underprivileged who had no stable income stream.
 
December 17   The FED is apparently waiting to raise interest rates until the US bear stock market is recognized so that the FED will not be blamed for the worsening recession.  Jim Crammer recognized the bear late in 2008 and by then stocks were already half way down to the low.  So Jim Cramer only had missed 30% of the 60% stock market decline.  He was the first commentator to publicly recognize the bear market and he embarrassed the Obama administration using his “they’re nuts” remark again at that time.
 
American Economy
Either there is another gross Obama Administration error or there has been a major rise in cash outflow (TIC flow) from the USA.
Dec 15
Net Long-Term USA TIC Flows Oct -$1.4B sharply down from $164.3B – This appears to a gross Obama Administration error or a major rise in cash outflow from the USA.----
New York Manufacturing Dec -3.6%, sharply lower contradicts Industrial Production reported up 1.3% in Nov.
 
Capacity Utilization Nov 80.1%
The US housing industry had perked up last summer but froze up in October and has declined somewhere between 2% and 6% since then.
NAHB Housing Market Index Dec 57 down from 58 -
Dec 16
Housing Starts Nov 1028K down from 1045K --- a big negative
Building Permits Nov 1035K down sharply from 1092K--- another big negative
MBA Mortgage Index 12/13 -3.3% down from 7.3% --- a bigger negative
CPI Nov -0.3% --- deflation
Current Account Balance Q3 -$100.3B trade balance down more---
 
This appears to be near the low point for Russia and for oil prices this year but both could go lower again next year. 
During a recession many executives are fired and their company books are corrected with honest earnings reported lower due to the write downs of inflated asset values.  We are already seeing many retiring or being fired this year.
 
December 16   China’s successful free economy has been just a brief moment of light in their 4000 years of dictatorial darkness.  China’s corrupt communists have recently betrayed the enlightened economic free-enterprise revolution.    There are three components to a thriving free economy.  There is free-enterprise that unshackles innovative people by allowing them to borrow money for innovative start-up companies.  Secondly, there are competitive capital markets (capitalism) where shrewd investors select only the best innovators and freely but very carefully and democratically vote by placing their capital (money) with the most innovative companies that they conclude will be most successful (profitable).  Finally, there is self determination (freedom to chose) that gives the hard working entrepreneurs, capitalists, and workers the pleasure of the freedom to live and spent their earnings the way they freely chose.   The Chinese government has the responsibility to stop corruption and to limit pollution of the air, water, and land.  But China’s communists have now reversed its course and it is becoming Red China again, a land where the corrupt politicians rule by dictatorship and place their own dictators in power even in Hong Kong. 
The Communists have abrogated their 1984 agreement when Great Britain pulled out of Hong Kong and the Chinese government promised to allow Hong Kong self determination forever.
The Communists can’t even regulate and limit their national pollution.   Fog and smog now deny the Chinese even the pleasure of a beautiful sunset or seeing the sky.  Now the Red Chinese plan to pre-select two or three dictators from which Hong Kong citizens can choose a leader.  Probably only the communists in Hong Kong will vote and the vast majority will boycott the election of the totalitarian Chinese dictator of Hong Kong.   It appears the Communist authoritarian dynasty is returning to the historic 4000 years of the dynasty of coolie poverty and genocide.  We can expect an economic implosion and a Great Depression starting in China very soon.   We are seeing Putin’s communist dictatorship starting to go bankrupt right now.
            It is becoming painfully obvious that Obama’s economic statistics are falsified.  Unemployment in the USA is about 20% and Obama claims it is 5%.  What has happened is that part time jobs have replaced many full time jobs, people are retiring younger, many people have given up and now work odd jobs “under-the-table”, and the number of uneducated and unemployable poor people getting food stamps and welfare has exploded.  Once an Obama falsified statistic is issued they must make several downward corrections or else it creates an opposite effect the next year.  Look at this statistic (below) and you can see that the Obama administration has been pretty stupid in covering its tracks when manipulating data that they pretend will show economic progress. 
 
Can you possibly believe (see above) that “Manufacturing Durable Goods Total” rose 1100% (from 2013),  a few months ago, going from 3 to 33?  When you see these huge swings year to year you can understand that the Obama Administration economists are so stupid they can’t even cover their ridiculous manipulations of the economic data.  Obama may very well have already triggered another Great Depression like we had with FDR and his social programs.   Obama seems to have America on the edge of a Great Depression just as Russia implodes, and China is going over the edge.  Germany too is seeing deflation which is the sign of the early stage of economic depression.  Germany has not seen that since the last Great Depression too.
 
December 15    Home foreclosures increased in August, October, and November.  The only segment of the USA economy that has been booming is the fracking oil segment so how can any Americans actually believe we are coming out of the Obama recession when he continues to dig the economic hole deeper with his regulations and highway robbery of American banks.  He hits up the banks every year for fines and campaign funds.  In fact campaigning for political contributions is how Obama spends 90% of his time.  Where is there any evidence of US growth outside of US fracking?  And the Liberals want to make fracking illegal, while fracking is about to be hit hard by declining oil prices?  Obama is the Wizard of Oz, behind the curtain pretending he is not responsible for putting America into a spiraling economic depression.  We have a stock market bubble based on illusions and his falsified economic data, all the same wizardry of Brezhnev before the collapse of the USSR.  Soon we will also have to help feed the Russians again if Putin does not retire.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/09/11/august-home-foreclosures-rise-realtytrac/
 
The fact that so many executives are retiring or being replaced this year is a clear sign that the corporation boards are cleaning house in preparation to clean up their account books.  Next year we expect to see more honest corporate reports where obsolete assets are devalued, losses and debts are not hidden, and incomes go negative for several quarters.
 
Again the declining price of oil is not a cause of the stock market sell-off that started in October.  This is the second phase of a sell-off caused by the lower world wide energy consumption of the poorer economies since Obama took office and America abandoned its leadership role in the world. The decline in the 10yr bond interest rate is telling investors a deeper recession or even an Obama depression is looming.  Near zero real growth is what the Obama administration has given America with his new regulations. His wealth redistribution is a major disincentive for Americans getting an education or a job, as is his attack on free enterprise job creation.   Our labor force is losing a whole generation of young people.  The stock market is now weak because the leftists are destroying confidence in America here and abroad.
 
The decline of the price of oil is caused by the inelasticity in the relation between oil production and oil prices due to the ability to store oil in empty barges.  The slower world economy has reduced the bulk trade of the shipping fleet making storage available in empty rail and tanker shipping fleets.  Once the storage tankers and rail cars are all full of oil, production of oil will be forced to decline to just the consumption rate.  That too will have negative effects for jobs and the stock market.  Oil prices will not rebound until the glut of stored oil is reduced.  USA consumer Confidence is 60% lower than it was in 2000.
The cost of an international police force had been born primarily by America.  Obama’s selfish form of American socialism has not been offset by the EU and any of the selfish international socialist leaning countries.   International peace is breaking down.  What is worse is that the selfish and insane socialist religious groups could gain control of Mid East and African oil fields.  In fact it is possible that ISIS is contributing to the destabilization of oil prices.  ISIS socialist religious brainwashing is spreading as converts to the religious socialism of ISIS seek new converts in the free-enterprise world.
 
After WWII it was necessary to purge the brainwashed communists and nationalist socialists who had infiltrated free-world governments and universities.   Both Truman and Eisenhower let the US Senate take on that job in America.   Communists as well as nationalist socialists were purged everywhere in the free world during the early 1950’s.   Many unions had to purge their leadership as well.  Now the socialists have again infiltrated and are again destroying the American and the free world educational systems.   Since America’s unpopular Vietnam War, many of our university faculties have been infiltrated again and do no allow free speech for students who support free enterprise or a capital based banking system.  American students now often have to “fake it” and produce the leftist bullshit for their professors if they want to get A’s in the humanities courses.  Students need to electronically record those leftist professors so that they can be dismissed for violating the American right to free speech.   
    
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