Monday, February 23, 2015

Feb 27 It appears all the money that flowed out of the American stock markets last September and October is now back in the market. The NYSE had a net outflow which went into the higher quality stocks at significantly lower volume such that net prices went up on lower volume than when they first declined. Thus we compute there has been virtually no new money that has entered the market in the last eight months. The money has simply been redistributed on low volume from lower quality investments to higher quality safer investments. Therefore we surmise that equities require another big selloff now in order to have new cash to shift to safer investments. The pool of risk money has stopped growing. Soon it will cause credit crises which will cause net outflows not just a redistribution such as we have just completed



Our Market Cash Flow index for the NYSE was unable to break out from the level first hit the first week of July 2014.  In fact there was 2.7% cash flow out of the stocks in the broadest index since then (eight months ago) and it looks like the recent rally has now fizzled out.  The highest July 2014 NYSE price level was the limit for advance.  With the indexes at their highest levels from before Obama and flattening out it looks like we are due for the next downward move at any time.  But we are no where near a capitulation yet as market optimism remains at exuberant levels.

 

Remember the Obama talk during the two week sequester when Obama shut down some of the government.  Remember how he said the GDP was seriously damaged?  Then the first report showed the GDP had significantly improved.  Then it was corrected downward when Obama remembered he had first said the Congressional sequester hurt the economy.  Looking back on it there was no statistical evidence that the sequester had any effect at all.  Did you ever notice that the Obama GDP statistics always are reported high in the last half of the year during elections and then are corrected down after they are no longer in the news so that  Obama can inflate the following quarters?  Obama systematically has been inflating GDP statistics when they come out and lowering them when no one is looking.  That is deliberate and not a random phenomena.  Well Obama just did it again.  At the end of 2014 Obama claimed the GDP was increasing faster than a 5% annual rate.    Then at Christmas he reported new record sales.   They claimed the average growth rate was now between 4% and 5% and the market rallied.  Today the latest estimate is out and Q4 improved only 2.2%, no improvement shown since Obama’s inauguration.   Well the stock market rally we just had was predicated on America breaking out of the Obama malaise and the American economy is not recovering and America is in the same deflation-depression cycle Europe, South America, Russia and China are entering.  Japan has been in it since 1990 when they invented Quantitative Easing.   Obama and Yellen apparently were ignorant of the fact Japan has had a terrible experience with QE.  Look at what QE did to the Japanese Stock market because that is the road Obama and Yellen have put us on.  Japan started their QE1 in 1980 and our American “:Stupid Party” administration lacked the intelligence, competence, and knowledge to avoid an approach that leads to recession and depression (continually falling prices).  If values decline in time it results in declining investment and increased consumption that ultimately a communist type economic system where the government eventually takes control and mandates its own investments.  Unfortunately government leaders tend to be insane or incompetent and end up like the USSR or N. Korea.  China is an experiment where the communists have allowed some private enterprise freedom.  But who knows if that will last.  Obama and Yellen have put America on an economic path that historically has led to totalitarianism and wars.   Look at the plots back to 1980.



 

GDP - Second Estimate Q4 2014: 2.2%  not 4.5% which was the basis for the stock market rally.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gdp-growth-slows-to-2-2-pace-in-fourth-quarter-1425044000


Existing Home Sales Jan 4.82M down sharply from 5.04M

Initial Claims 02/21 were 313K up from 282K last time.

The Case Shiller home price index has turned down for the first time since the recovery began.



 

Bloomberg reported that the stage is set for another financial crisis to unravel years of relative calm in debt markets.  At least that’s how firms from UBS Group AG to Invesco Ltd. see it. 


 

Obama apparently prefers the pollution and human deaths caused by numerous exploding oil trains as an alternative to safe oil pipelines. A lack of pipelines connecting new fields in North Dakota and Texas to refineries and shipping terminals has led to a fifty fold increase in the amount of oil moved by unsafe trains since 2009 Obama refuses to build even the Keystone pipeline.  Warren Buffet has invested in the dangerous railroads and contributes to the Stupid Party.  Warren brags he pays a smaller percentage in US taxes than his secretary.   He uses all the Obama tax loopholes he gets and nobody in the Obama IRS or justice department ever investigates him.


 

Feb 25  It is obvious that the FED will not begin to raise interest rates until the Obama recession/depression begins to unfold with a cascading collapse of the American stock markets.  The damage that will be done by the FED’s cowardice and current inaction will discredit both the FED and the Stupid Party administration.

Housing starts are still down 60% from the level before the 2006 Obama-Frank Liar Loan Mortgage default crisis collapsed the American housing industry.   It was a stupid party anti-racist program to induce minorities to take the bait and buy homes they never could afford and requiring they lie about their incomes in order to get the mortgages.  Obama-Dodd-Frank had redlining sting operations to sue any bank or realtor who did not meet a quota of minorities.  The sting against honest bankers was accomplished by having a well-to-do minority person pose as someone destitute to try to be rejected.  As soon as the competent and honest framed bankers or real estate agents took the bait and did not finance the purchase they were called racists in the press, the word spread that Obama/Frank required that everyone take the word/lies of minorities as absolute truth or risk government harassment.   Now US housing has been destroyed and is back to levels under Bill Clinton almost twenty years ago and racial minorities have fewer homes than before Obama and Frank got their brilliant corrupt ideas.  Frank was such a crook he quit the Senate rather than be publicly censored.  Dodd was their mentor and he got a nice low interest loan for a house in Ireland from the biggest crook corporation at that time known as Countrywide.  Bank of America, the best run American bank was forced to acquire Countrywide and when BOA objected Obama-Holder relentlessly harassed the bank until its founder and president resigned.  All states with elected stupid-party treasurers illegally joined forces to attend the BOA stockholder’s meeting to vote their BOA shares against the founder and president of Bank of a America.   He won re-election as BOA president anyway.  Under most conditions the stupid party would be considered racketeering but not when high level corrupt politicians become involved.   The founder of BOA survived but the Obama/Holder harassment finally took its toll and the great founding president Ken Lewis took retirement.  We no doubt have the most corrupt and least competent government administration in the history of the USA.  Later Obama-Holder sued the banks because the banks did not investigate the minority applicants as thoroughly as they had done before the banks were first sued for accepting fewer than the quota necessary to not be deemed a racist.  It was simply not possible to meet the quota of minorities without reducing the standards.  That quota was worse than corruption.  Some might say we have a few evil people in high positions in the USA today.  The leaders of the Stupid Party destroyed our housing industry.


 

Feb 24 Saying the NASDAQ has hit its high of February 2000 is another way of saying the NASDAQ has gone nowhere in 15 years and is again at the same level it reached before it collapsed with Bill Clinton’s embattled administration beginning in February of 2000.
The use of the stupid party's Nuclear option tactics to pass legislation and prevent the filibustering could now be used against the minority Stupid Party.
The Sand P has given its second major MACD sell signal in recent months and the market PE is above 20 making the signal more likely to correctly forecast the downturn.  Typically the market is 15% to 30% below the market high and about a year after the high before the Wall Street Analysts admit we have a bear market.  By then we would be less than six months or about 30 to 40% off the bottom.  The last bear market from the end of 2007 to the Obama inauguration date in Jan 2009 was a drop of 60% from the high.  The FDR depression was a 90% stock market drop a few years after the market mostly recovered from the Hover 60% recession stock market drop.  The stupid party blamed Hover of course for the FDR depression and 90% collapse.  If this coming stock market collapse is 90% and leads to an Obama depression Obama will do like FDR did and blame the person before him again just as the socialist FRD did.  Again, our indicator based on cash flow not momentum gave its warning the end of 2007 and the end of 2013 a full year and about 30% higher than when Jim Cramer blew the whistle a year later.  Here is the MACD now giving its second more reliable sell signal.

http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/109954108965/how-ominous-is-this-long-term-s-p-500-sell-signal

How is it that Holder resigned over three months ago and he still does the talking for the new woman Attorney General Obama appointed?  Loretta Lynch, an intelligent woman, was appointed and is totally ignored.  How come Obama and Hilary don’t like women advisors in any important positions?  Obama ignores Ms. Lynch and Holder is still his advisor not Ms. Lynch.  Obama seems to ignore the advice of his women advisors just as he ignored Hilary before.

  Elizabeth Warren knows Hillary Clinton paid women on her Senate staff less than Hilary paid the men.  Did Hilary hire women to only make the coffee and do “women’s work”?  Or did she really think women were worth less than men?  Or are they all just hypocrites in the Stupid Party? 

Hedge Funds are a contrarian indicator and it has been just reported that they have moved back into the stock market especially the NASDAQ.  Kudlow and all the analysts seemed to agree that when the hedge funds go long that is time to sell stocks.  But it does explain the new high in the NASDAQ.  Every analyst on CNBC said, “Start a hedge fund don’t be a sucker and invest in one. “



Obama is a former Moslem who says he has converted to Christian.  If Obama were to say ISIS was a Moslem group, Obama would be admitting a death sentence from them because ISIS says conversion to Christian is punishable by death by Moslem tradition.



Continuing Unemployment claims of Obama’s growing unemployable class were 2425K up again by 1%.  Even though Obama claims the unemployment rate is declining the unemployables grow because unlike Bill Clinton, Obama does not want to require the unemployables to do volunteer work cleaning up the cities to collect welfare.  Gradually the unemployables will become untouchables as the stupid party turns America into a backward country. 

Philadelphia Fed economic index fell 20% to 5.2 in Feb.   The poor in cities suffer the most under Obama.

Leading Indicators for Jan at 0.2 down 60% from last month.
Feb 23 Now Obama has tied his illegal presidential executive order that would legalize illegal aliens to the Homeland Security funding.  It creates a dilemma if Congress passes Homeland Security as written.  Legally, if congress funds Obama’s executive action in any way… it becomes the law.  The Republicans who support the funding of the current Obama Bill are apparently too stupid to know funding the executive order in any manner makes it legally approved and it shows the Republicans who don’t know that are just as stupid as the people in the Stupid Party and should be voted out of office next time.   Obama’s Executive order cannot go into effect until either Congress funds it or the Supreme Court says Obama has the authority to circumvent Congress.  Approving the bill as written gives tacit approval to Obama’s executive order.  The Republicans need to re-write the bill and pass it without funding the illegal executive order legalizing illegal aliens.
Existing Home Sales for Jan were 4.82Million down 12% from last month ending the so-called housing boom but actually down 39% from the peak before the Stupid Party took over.  In fact you can see it is still lower than the last two times Obama claimed the housing crisis was over.  Detroit and other Obama Liar Loan plagued Cities still have abandoned and burning houses that make it look like a WWII saturation bombing target.  Instead of helping the poor own homes, Liar Loans were like saturation bombing of all their affordable housing.

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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Feb 20 American consumer confidence has fallen 20% since Bill Clinton and yet another 20% since George Bush and stands at 90 now. The Stupid Party thinks it is 90% confidence. It is plain 90 not 90% and it was 110 under Bush and 140 before Bill Clinton’s stock market bubble collapsed in 2000. The current stock market bubble is not set to bust completely, but a 15% decline then a partial recovery would be no surprise now. Yet Obama talks about how confident Americans are now because he thinks Americans are stupid. That is why the Stupid Party needs to be replaced by Thomas Jefferson’s party. It was that old White man Jefferson who started the Democrat party but Obama says the founders of American democracy, being white, old, and men, are no longer relevant. To Obama, Moslem terrorists only need jobs and some respect but Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Winston Churchill should be rejected, ridiculed and called racists. The very first stupid thing Obama and his wife did was to insult the entire British Commonwealth and most Americans by acting like the fools they are when they returned the gift of a bust of Churchill to England. The Republican Congress rescued America from that embarrassment. But back to consumer confidence! This shows that Americans have lowest confidence since Obama brought his new stupid party with him.





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10415601/Churchill-bust-welcomed-back-to-US-Capitol-after-Obama-snub.html


 
Feb 18   Subprime loans, (loans to people with low credit scores), are now at the highest point since the 2008 Liar-Loan banking crisis caused by Senators Obama-Frank.  For those who do not remember, a few “Stupid Party” Senators thought it was discriminatory that sub-prime people did not to enjoy the American Dream of owning a home.  So they used lawsuits against realtors and banks to force them to fill the Senator’s quotas of subprime minorities given homes with no reasonable means of paying their mortgages once interest rates went up.   For instance the stupid Senators did not care that the subprime people had low interest loans that jumped to much higher interest rates in three years when they were supposed to have their feet on the ground.  But what the stupid Senators of the Stupid Party did not realize was that the thousands of mortgages to unemployables and dropouts would all go into default when the artificial subprime housing boom went bust.   Large parts of Detroit and other cities were destroyed by the subprime mortgage holders after they defaulted and became squatters.  Under Obama his FED appointments now keep interest rates at subprime levels which are as attractive as it was to have a “free house” with the liar loans.  Now they can have a “free car” and if they don’t think it is fair to them when it is repossessed they can just wreck it and Obama will forgive them and let poor American working men and women pay for it.   Now under Obama’s free handouts we have the Obama free new-car and cell phone program for people who don’t have the time for “unimportant” things like work or an education.   Obama is as proud now of his record January 2015 subprime car sales as he was proud of his record subprime home sales in 2006 that destroyed the lives of the people who got them as well as the people who lent them.   Americans cannot afford the “Stupid Party” any more.  Working people always pay for the damages caused by the state and federal employees and the big unions who are almost all registered “Stupid Party” voters.   American workers unite!   Vote out Obama’s Stupid Party.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/lenders-step-up-financing-to-subprime-borrowers-1424296649
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis






Putin’s Russian and Obama’s American inflation gauges are now going negative toward recession and depression levels.  Russia is handicapped with sanctions because of Putin is stupid and America is handicapped with Obama and his “Stupid Party.”  While jobs available are up to the levels reached during the Bush Administration it is for a different reason.  The stupid party’s socialist teachers and professors do not produce qualified applicants to fill job openings due the inability to find graduates who can read and write in English or do simple math or understand directions. 


Feb 18   Twitter and Snap Chat bring back memories of the DOTCOM bubble corporations when the NASDAQ was at this level in year 2000.  Here we are at the same level that NASDAQ as it was in 2000 when the people who invested in a technology index then have just now broken even.   A zero gain in NASDAQ stocks in 15 years! They wasted 15 years investing in the garbage dump of companies that waste people’s time because they were listening to Jim Crammer and others saying how good this market is just as he did in the years 2000 and 2007.  This historic moment should be a wakeup call for anyone who can read a stock chart.  The biggest losers are the users of most of the current technology not the investors.  They are the next generation of foolish indigents. They are students on the way to dropping out.  Technology is great for people with brains to know what the world needs.  But most of the games and gadgets are attractive only to people who want to escape reality and responsibility.  And probably more than 90 % of these moron targeting start-ups like Snap Chat will be bankrupt 15 years from now because the brains of their followers will be fried.  Now is the time to realize we have an opportunity to cash in our chips.  This opportunity comes once every 7 or 8 years at best. 


     One hundred years ago you cashed in every 4 yrs for a business cycle and 20 years for a great depression cycle.  In the time of Christ the Jubilee occurred every 50 years when debts were forgiven and a new cycle of growth began.  It would be an interesting experiment if the EU were to forgive some of the debts of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy proportional to the percentage that those countries downsize their governments and privatize assets of the governments to pay off some of the debt.  Why does Greece want to run their harbors when they could sell them for a profit and then tax the shipping companies?   All these countries could privatize and tax.  The sale of assets during downsizing would pay off debt and reduce the government expenditures.  The taxation of the sold assets would raise revenue and cut the deficit.  Together…. Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy would get back on the road to increasing prosperity.  But that cannot happen as long as their people continue to elect candidates of their “Stupid Party.”


Obama’s Stupid Party administration just lowered Industrial Production this past month by 0.2% so that they could show it at 0.2% this month instead of 0%.   The average for the two recent months was -0.1% not 0.2%.  They think Americans are as stupid as they are in the Stupid Party that does not want to offend Putin and ISIS.  The people in the Stupid Party respect Putin and think they can rehabilitate ISIS members who return to the Free world.   Intelligent people would revoke the citizenship and passport of any ISIS member and let them die with evil of Moslem Terrorist ISIS.  The Stupid Party leaders in America unlike leaders in Jordan and Egypt refuse to say that ISIS is waging an evil war against all good people’s including all good Moslems.  The very most stupid people think the evil ISIS butchers should be welcomed home and rehabilitated.   Even Hitler and Stalin did not burn people alive.  And Obama is excusing evil today by saying that it happened in the dark ages of all religions.  That is even more stupid than can be put into words.   What idiot points to the dark ages to excuse evil today?  Only the president of a Stupid Party!  He does not respect the American flag and what it stands for and as a result he has now lost the respect of most of the free world. 
Is Miami the “canary in the mine shaft” indicator for the health of the expensive condo and building industry?  Russia and China are investigating their rich corrupt government administrators before they defect to the Americas and Europe.   The collapse of the condo market is happening in New York and California too.   Condo prices have plummeted as deals collapse and bankrupt owners and investors dump everything. Most American builders have begun layoffs.  The Obama housing bust set us back twenty years on construction.


Jan 17   New home sales peaked in 2006 when the “Stupid Party” took control of both houses of Congress and then changed the Senate rules so that they could override President Bush every time he tried to stop stupid things like the Freddie, Fannie, and Obama/Frank liar loans for people who could not truthfully afford a house.   Giving indigents new homes sounds very kind but as a result the poor and all other Americans now are now poorer, in a recession, and slipping toward a Great Depression.  You can see that Obama and his Stupid Party advisors could have done worse than they already have, but not much worse.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=home

 

AIG profit plummeted 67% in fourth quarter and is the fourth insurance company to report the serious last quarter slowdown.  Obama’s claims the USA had a 0.5% GDP improvement while everyone lost money.   Nothing Obama says can be trusted any more.

 

Empire Manufacturing Feb sank to 7.8 from 9.9 -

MBA Mortgage Index 02/14 fell  -13.2% the worst since the Obama/Frank Liar Loan collapse.

Housing Starts Jan fell to 1065K from 1089K

Building Permits Jan fell to 1053K from 1065K

Producer Price Index Jan fell -0.8% showing that deflation is settling in here just as it is in Eurasia.   Obama is a magnet for world crisis and economic depression. 
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Friday, February 13, 2015

The people in the “Stupid Party” think there is an EU national health care system that is better than what we have in America. They do not realize and are just too stupid to even understand that the EU does not have even a single educational system, much less a single national healthcare system. England, France, Germany, Greece, etc each has its own unique educational system and own unique health care system in their own unique language. Not one is as good as in America. The all have private systems to augment their State run systems. In France they have a private clinic system. Virtually all foreignors go to the local doctor, then the clinic, and then an American hospital and avoid the hospitals in Europe. The doctors in Europe are now unionized. In France they are polite and never call a strike for more than a day without announcing it a week ahead of time. And of course Western Europe has a good system second only to the USA. Europeans come to America when they have serious health problems.





Can you imagine a European healthcare or educational system where Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain and Greece had to pick and share a common language, and same school books including history and cultural education?  That is impossible except in totalitarian societies.   The Nazi and USSR did just what the “Stupid Party” is advocating and had nationalized systems.   But oddly all their sick people died mysteriously in their health systems and prisons.   The Stupid Party says that would never happen here but they brought Ebola to America and now they are allowing radical Islamists to return to America if they promise not to decapitate anyone.  Conquered peoples were forced to learn the language and cultures of their socialist dictators.  Now Obama and the “Stupid Party” dictators are pushing their socialist healthcare and “Common Core” education in every American state.  They apparently agree with Hitler and Stalin and ISIS that it gives the government maximum life and death control over the people.  Those people who resisted national or international secular or religious socialism eventually simply disappeared. 

But in America we still have 50 states which are intellectually, environmentally, educationally, medically, and politically independent laboratories competing to be the best.  And from the best of each state and from the best of the external world order, America evolves.  America has had until Obama’s “Stupid Party” the best healthcare, most objective educational systems, the least intolerance, and the greatest opportunity.  The EU will catch up to America unless they also elect a stupid president from a stupid party and start doing for the EU what Obama and his “Stupid Party” are doing for America. 
A few weeks ago we explained that the unemployment rate was going down because Obama has forced corporations to drop the work week to 30 hours so their employees can qualify for free healthcare.  For every three people dropped from 40 to 30 hours, corporations hire one more people person to fill the slack.  That is why the percent unemployment is dropping while the large population of unemployed Americans is continually growing under the rule of the “Stupid Party.”  But Obama does not understand the fact that his stupid healthcare system must cause just that.   While most paying Americans now have a bigger deductible and pay and average of 50% more for healthcare Obama still claims his socialized medicine is cheaper.  Perhaps the stupidity lays with the Obama Administration and their arrogant MIT advisor not the American people. The Staples office-supply chain is now the latest victim in a series of politically charged attacks from the White House on corporations.  The voters do not like the government idiots now running domestic and foreign policy.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-staples-obama-once-again-interferes-with-the-private-sector-2015-02-12



AIG profit plummeted 67% in fourth quarter the fourth insurance company to report the serious last quarter slowdown where Obama’s doctored data said the USA had a 0.5% GDP improvement.   Nothing Obama says can be trusted any more.

The treasury budget deficit rate of increase Jan -17.5B got worse from -$10.3B 
Unemployment Claims 02/07 304K up from 278K previous week
Retail Sales Jan -0.8% after -0.9% in Dec when Obama said GDP growth was 5%
onsumer Sentiment Feb 93.6 down from 98.3.  It has only risen to about the low point during the Bush Administration including the 9-11 recession during his term of office.  That shows how little Americans trust anything the Obama says such as his recent claims of a 5% GDP growth rate when people know personal income is declining.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment





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Monday, February 9, 2015

Feb 13 Market manipulators are making their fourth attempt this week to set a new high. The last NYSE high was last July. They are having their greatest difficulty moving the DJAC at this time. It is quite possible this manipulated high will exhaust the manipulator’s funds and end with a precipitous decline.





Tesla was estimated to deliver 11,142 vehicles, but only ultimately delivered only 9,834 in the fourth quarter. The company said it was unable to deliver all the cars because of "a combination of customers being on vacation, winter snow, and shipping problems.  The short sellers can see Tesla is limping so they are beginning to circle Tesla like vultures looking to make a killing.

Pressured by Congress, the IRS run by Obama/Holder has had to apologize for seizing banks accounts and other assets from otherwise law-abiding business owners simply because those owners chose to try to avoid harassment by Obama, Holder, and their corrupted IRS.  Many American did the same as the people Obama/Holder had harassed.  Christians, Conservatives, and Republicans but any other good American making frequent deposits just under $10,000.  It was broadcast nationally that drug dealers typically made many large deposits to banks therefore the banks were to report any bank deposits of $10,000 or more to the FBI.  Therefore any intelligent informed American made his or her deposits smaller than $10,000 to not appear to be laundering money.  So given the well known limited level of intelligence of this administration, Obama/Holder instructed the IRS to harass not just the drug pushers but all intelligent Americans making deposits just under $10,000.  Obama/Holder then had the IRS and illegally goes after almost every American that lives or travels frequently abroad because they tend to have bank accounts abroad.  The IRS has now apologized because that harassment and illegal seizures of private accounts ordered by Obama and Holder.  IRS Commissioner John Koskinen told Congress Wednesday that the IRS is changing policies to prevent the seizures, as long as the money came from legal means.  In some cases, the IRS seized and held individual and corporation bank accounts for years without bringing charges.

 

Feb 11  The process of corruption in Red China today rears its heads like a three headed dragon.  The first is in the harassment of the foreign target companies on trumped up charges coupled with crippling financial penalties.   That is how they destroy foreign competition and cause losses. The second is in copying technology and selling knockoffs like when the communists set up fake Chinese Apple stores selling a complete line of counterfeit Apple products.   The Chinese computer hacked foreign manufacturing specs and copied, manufactured, and exported fake Rolex watches, copies of expensive software, Apple products, and other valuable products.  The counterfeit knock-offs are still sold for only10% to 20% of the real product’s list price because one common thief doesn’t need a brain to copy the intellectual property of 500 engineers.   Singapore and other Asian countries then resell the counterfeits to tourists.  The average tourist cannot tell the difference but the copies are illegal in most of the free world.  They are sometimes confiscated at airports.  The third and worst level of corruption is with the Chinese government officials who become more friendly when their palms are greased with foreign bank accounts.   With a deposit to their bank account (outside of China), they will even lower or drop the fines that the foreign capitalist pigs have to pay.  It is a no-win situation fighting the corrupt system in China from the outside.  And as the Chinese economy begins to hollow out, enter a recession, and has a debt crisis, we can expect some Chinese will seek to defect before the implosion when many will face corruption charges and executions.  The rats will always flee a sinking ship.
   Bribery is not unique to China.  Recently New York City regulators and State legislators have been in the news being arrested for the same kinds of things they do in China.  It is a major problem for governments that create laws with many regulations for the purpose of making innocent people guilty as charged whenever they chose.  The Trial is a novel written by Franz Kafka in 1914 and 1915 but not published until 1925 after his death.  It eloquently shows the nightmare of innocent people under Libtard socialism and communism before Hitler and Lenin made them more powerful.   It tells the story of a man arrested and prosecuted by an inaccessible all powerful government authority.   His crime cannot be denied because it is never revealed to him nor the reader.

   JOLTS, the number of “Job Openings” sitting out there unfilled in December for anyone qualified is now 5,028,000 up from 4,972,000 last month.  That is a measure not of the economy as much as our Libtard run educational system that tries to make everyone a Jonathan Gruber or Elizabeth Warren Harvard professor but leaves them with no credible skills or achievements.

   The MBA Mortgage index fell -9.0% as of last Friday meaning fewer people took out mortgages, not exactly the housing boom trumpeted by Pravda/MSNBC and Obama the last four months.  We first noted when the single family housing industry decline started last September.

 

Feb 10 Most of the funds that short stocks gave up two years ago causing a buying exuberance for even worthless start-ups.  But when the stock market is getting near the top it drags along the junk that was shunned earlier.   But then the rigorous alpha driven hedge funds lose money because they bought value and sold short the sudden rising junk.   Eventually the junk catches up with their original relative levels compared with top level stocks of the selective stock indices.  But, when the market is ready to collapse and people panic the most selective and safe Dow stocks and growth stocks climb just a little more at the expense of the broader market.  That is why the NYSE, not the DOW, is a leading indicator for the market top.  It is so broad that market manipulators have given up on it and wish it would go away.  You can’t find NYSE prices much less its market volume in most magazines.  The business news programs seldom mention the NYSE any more.  That is one reason why the NYSE not the fashionable selective indices tells the truth.  The highly selective indices blindside all the market advisors for six months to a year until the broad market is down 10% to 30%.  And even when the advisors know the truth, few speak up because many lose their jobs for their negativity.  Market volume and commissions collapse 60% (a recession) to 90% (a depression) when the correction occurs.  Prudent investors weigh the evidence.  The TV commentators do not because they are paid to deliver sunshine as long as possible.

Russia invaded and took Crimea and is now fighting to take the Ukraine.  Putin has reminded everyone that Russia still has over 1000 nuclear missiles each that can destroy an entire city.  A few hundred of them are on untrackable submarines off the American coasts.  ISIS teaches children to decapitate adults and burns adults alive.  Syria drops corrosive chlorine by the barrel full on city families.  Iran continues their nuclear program taking advantage of the incompetent American administration.  The libtard who let the four USA embassy staff die in Libya and burn, later told Congress "what difference does it make now!"  Now she thinks she qualifies as a presidential candidate.  The whole world has gone mad.  The number of Americans renouncing U.S. citizenship increased 37 percent to 1,062 from 776 in the year-earlier period, according to Federal Register data.

The world’s second-largest oilfield services company, Halliburton, just announced plans to cut as many as 6400 employees or 8 percent of its workforce as it adjusts to the collapse of oil prices and brings job reductions closer to the cuts of its competitors.  Oil is predicted to drop to under $30/barrel and then slowly rise to about $60 to $70 where current demand can sustain the price.    It will take a long time for demand to exceed the supply of oil from fracking.  If the Arabs do not cut their supply of oil they will run out of oil and have less than 50% of the wealth they could have it they stop drilling new wells.

 

Feb 9   If the stock market falls significantly through its lowest levels of Jan 15, 2015 we could see about another 8% downward correction.  A DJI of 17300, a NYSE of 10500, a NASDAQ of 4550, or an S and P of 6300 will likely be the test areas for the next correction.  After that, the lows of last October 15 may very well be the next lower resistance level.  It takes six to twelve months for the news media to become brave enough to declare a bear market.  In the mean time during a bear market ETFs are a slow death and must be sold before they end up at only 10% of their purchase value.  When they are down 90% they usually have a 6 to 1 or 10 to 1 stock reverse split which fools the novice investor.  A novice looking at price might see the price jump up 900% not realizing the stock was reverse split and is worth only 10% of the value when it was bought.
Jeb Bush could be in big trouble if he thinks about running for president.  Fortune magazine had a revealing article on Common Core education in their Feb 2015 issue.  It implies the marketing has been corrupted to win mostly Libtards and a few conservatives.  The Conservatives in high positions got free vacations such as in Finland, or Argentina, and other places when they showed any interest in Common Core.  The Libtards were given free sample tests to try out on disadvantaged children in their schools and the tests were officially graded for them by the company.   Many Libtards were at first ecstatic when they saw that their former low performing students scored high.  The Libtards of average intelligence checked the exams and discovered the firm selling and grading the course had falsified the test results.  Libtards did not realize the scores were processed on the normalizing libtard curve that makes the slow learner look average and the top students look like geniuses.  All scoring of students has been dumbed down since 1963.  A student with an above average SAT score of 600 out of 800 back in 1963 would have a near perfect score of 794 out of 800 today.   That is how dumbed down the Libtards of education have made an American education today.  The honest truth is that America’s intelligent students today still work hard and learn in spite of Libtard teachers.  Some Libtards today go to court to have all their grades, falsified applications, citizenships, and passports sealed by the courts to conceal their incompetence and lack of qualifications.   Others such as Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts falsely claimed she was a Cherokee Indian to get special advantages and schools until it came out after she was elected.   If a Libtard wants to scam and cheat her way through life there are free cell phones, tax reimbursements for no income, food stamps, and welfare checks that can be cashed at gambling casinos.   There is no depth to which a Libtard will go to cheat the Libtard system.  You can also get your drugs half price if you move to Colorado where Libtards say it should be free for the homeless.   That is how corrupt our educational and economic systems have become under the Libtards.  All the truthful psychological studies show that test grades do not correlate with success in life but character and hard work do correlate.  Hard work and emotional intelligence not intellectual gifts are what correlate with marriage and business success alike.  Libtards are gullible and actually think the tests, and their private schools determine success in life.    But when you look at what they do, they are all choosing schools that have only a token number of minorities from rich families usually the wealthy from Africa and South/Central America.  In fact they are not liberals at all but common racist Libtards.  They don’t want their children in with even the average American.

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Monday, February 2, 2015

Feb 6 The volume of selling has picked up as people who invested as long as 1.5 years ago have begun to take profits and leave the stock market. The NYSE has had five failed attempts to break out on the upside but profit taking has halted all of them. All the other major indices have had three failed breakout attempts. If it goes down again it could break out on the downside. We should know in five or six days whether it will drop an additional 5 or 10% to begin to test the October 2014 lows.


Why are Putin’s Russia and ISIS allowed to use the internet to spread their terrorism?  They are criminal governments that invaded peaceful countries and slaughter innocent people.   They use the internet to steal and to spread their lies, fears, and paranoia.  Putin called the Ukrainians Nazis.  Putin is at best a liar.  Putin cannot produce a single Nazi living there today and if there were any is was only because the Stalinist butchers let them go.  The Ukrainian people have been the victims of both the Nazi and Stalinist butchers like the KGB in which Putin served.

ADP Employment Change for Jan was only 213K for the “Stupid Party” Libtard economy.  A normal free enterprise US economy requires 300K new hires each month just to show some growth.

Trade Balance Dec was -$46.6B a very large American deficit.   US worker Productivity Q4 declined 1.8% 


Did you know that deadly Small Pox and the once common childhood measles disease were both wiped out several years ago in America and are no longer required inoculations?  Did you know that Small Pox is still the world’s most deadly disease and is in every biological warfare arsenal?  Did you know that Libtards are now in a tizzy because some religious Christian Americans don’t think the Libtards have a right to force Christian children to have the vaccination for childhood measles.  This is a big national Libtard issue.  Who is dumber, the few Christian parents who do not want an unnecessary vaccination risk of measles or the majority of Libtards who don’t want the security of protection from Small Pox.  Both may be dumb but the Libtards are definitely dumber.  If the American parents had objected to measles shots because they were Moslem, the two-faced Libtards would not dare make an issue of their Moslem religious beliefs.   But Christian or Jewish religious beliefs are huge national issues for the Libtards and their mindless news media.  According to CBS, half those infected already had the measles vaccination and they got measles anyway.   Obama’s Libtard supporters should require that foreign visitors have all the inoculations because the measles outbreak was brought to America apparently by a Moslem.   If a religious Christian or Jew brought the measles to measles-free-America, the Libtards and ISIS would have broadcast it worldwide by now.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/disneyland-measles-outbreak-highlights-growing-anti-vaccine-trend/



The Libard’s “Stupid Party” blocked a Republican bill this week that would fund the securing on America’s borders from terrorist illegal crossings.  Such an act would prevent drug cartels, human slave trafficking, terrorists and many potential unregistered libtard voters from entering America.   If you were a would-be American ISIS member, who would you support in an American election?  If you think America is an evil/rotten society who would you vote for?  You would by definition be a Libtard and would vote for the WSJ designated “Stupid Party,” right?
 

Feb 4   Again, China's central bank just made another system-wide cut to bank reserve requirements, unleashing another flood of cash to continue to build entire cities of vacant buildings and casinos.  Clearly old guard Communists fear a revolution looming soon when the time comes to pay for their incredible economic waste.  They are now just buying time to expatriate with their fortunes made from their kickbacks.  Thousands of Chinese millionaires have been moving cash abroad into developing countries and now hold dual citizenships with new names.  This is nothing new and South America is the favorite haven for them.  Government corruption in South America has fostered even the migration of the Nazis and other world known criminals.  Perhaps even the insane ISIS criminals will find refuge with criminals already in Central and South America. 
Today newspapers began reporting what we have been saying for weeks, that the Obama unemployment numbers are bogus because they ignore unemployed Americans who do not weekly report they are still looking for work.   First of all there are not even enough people in unemployment offices to take all the calls from the unemployed so most say they have given up calling. There is a long wait on the telephone and then a list of questions and aspersions cast at them for their lack of success finding employment.   It is said that illegal immigrants and the unemployed vote 93.5% for the Libtards and that is why Obama is so actively creating them.


Every American stock market indictor has traded within a 5% wide band since mid December 2014.  All indicators tops since then have trended down as well as most of the bottoms.  We predict that a downward breakout will occur within a few weeks.  The DJI is beginning to look like it could very well lead the market down this time now that all the frightened funds have loaded up on DOW stocks.


Islamic terrorists and their participating westerners who join them in atrocities are horrible murderers.  Anyone who even goes into their territory for personal reasons is obviously a dangerous sympathizer/collaborator regardless of their feeble reasons other than being sent there by the US to spy.  If they were invited to watch beheadings or witness people being burned alive they are sick and could be easily brainwashed to deceive President Obama and others until they are released in America.  Then ten years later when they blow up a synagogue, a cathedral, the NY Times office or the libtard MSNBC’s office, Libtards would be genuinely surprised.   The ISIS terrorists make the socialist Libtards Hitler and Putin look like only ordinary Libtards.  That is why President Obama is now afraid to release the American deserter who Obama recently obtained in exchange for freeing four Islamic terrorist commanders.  Obama now realizes that that American deserter is probably brainwashed, dangerous and in need of a lobotomy.   Only a libtard President would trade four Islamic terrorist murderers to gain an Islamic terrorist brainwashed American deserter.  Even American Libtards would not be stupid enough to put a brainwashed Taliban recruited deserter near any American school full of children.   (Remember the Taliban are the ones who filmed themselves blowing the heads off of women who were not properly dressed).   But American Libtards would object because he was an American soldier not because he joined the Taliban terrorists.   Therefore, for national security, America must revoke the citizenship and passbooks of any Americans who are stupid enough or mentally unbalanced enough to want to visit lands controlled by Islamic terrorist groups.



Feb 3   Obama has great difficulty thinking and deciding about anything.  Obama still can’t bring himself to use the term Islamic terrorism for the ISIS Moslems who just burned a captured Jordanian pilot alive and produced a video of it and then kept it a secret and tried to trade the Jordanian’s burned corpse for a terrorist’s 46 yr old Moslem girlfriend held in Jordanian prison for the killing dozens of Jordanians in a bombing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/world/middleeast/isis-hostages.html?_r=0
 

After all the recovery hype last fall with Obama’s claiming GDP growth of 5% for two consecutive quarters it turns out the factory orders for December fell -3.4% and Novembers report was revised down to -.7%. 

Remember how they said XMAS spending was at a new all time high?  Personal Spending Dec was down -0.3%. 

Production PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.0% from 0.0%.  If producer prices actually decline that would be a sign of a worsening recession.

ISM Index (for the service industry) Jan 53.5 down -4%.


Energy prices will gyrate and decline as the new Obama recession worsens and demand declines.  Big gas hog cars are selling again.  Coal sulphur pollution is down though because gas and oil are so inexpensive.  The latest data shows the environmentalists were wrong and the effect of global warming is about one tenth what they had predicted.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bjorn-lomborg-the-alarming-thing-about-climate-alarmism-1422832462

 

Feb 2  We predicted the economic decline would show up first in the broader stock indices like the NYSE and it did that last fall.  We predicted that the Libtards would come up with many rationales for why investors should not worry.  For instance they incorrectly said the drop in oil and other commodity prices was good for Americans and the American economy when in fact it is the direct indication of a world-wide recession that is causing a decline in demand and hence the falling prices.   Only oil dependent countries not producers like America will see a benefit.  We proved that fact by giving you the location of US commodity price charts that showed oil prices tanked before the Great Depression and every significant American recession.  We warned you that the market analysts are paid to sell stocks and bonds and they provide the Libtards absurd explanations as to why investors have nothing to worry about.  We reminded you that the market was half way down from its 2007 high before Jim Cramer (referring to the Obama administration) said, “the are stupid,” and “its time to sell” in late 2008.   Now the data indicates that we are headed toward a deepening recession, and possibly a depression before it will be possible to vote all the Libtards out of office in 2016. 
By the recent sell signal we mean we have entered a bear market and to make money you have to sell at highs and buy at lows as usual but the market declines will outweigh the advances.  Therefore people who know how to use short selling or bearish ETFs can make more money and most people can at least get into safe havens.   Real estate is great if you have cash, can wait years, and can afford the taxes.  Certain bonds will continue to appreciate as interest rates go negative.  But a minimum of a few weeks’ cash may be needed if there are runs on the banks in late 2015 or 2016.  During the Great Depression the Libtards took away the right of Americans to hold gold and in fact the FDR administration confiscated all the privately held gold in America.  Obviously gold is worth something in these times but it could be confiscated once more.

 

A good lie detector for the Administration on the state of the US economy is Las Vegas.  Las Vegas is now depressed and so is Obama’s Libtard economy.  Obama is right about one thing.  Americans were definitely stupid when they elected his Stupid Party administration and his “Czars,” named after the Russian dictators. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/03/arts/viktor-astafyev-who-wrote-of-rural-russia-dies-at-77.html

 

The world is on a road towards an ever deepening recession because the Libtards are causing it by slowly driving interest rates into negative territory using Quantitative easing and other methods.  Once it goes negative it pays to take your money out of the bank and hide it or buy physical gold and hide it.    With negative rates deflation quickly spirals out of control.

Obama is now proposing social spending and massive wasteful make-work projects just as the Germans did in the 1920’s before the Great Depression.  Up until then, Germany was one of the most advanced economies in the world just as it is today.

http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/marcuse/classes/33d/projects/1920s/Econ20s.htm

As Germany sank further with Libtard socialist strategies they released hyperinflation which reduced 99% of their population to poverty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflation.html

Libtards are stupid because they do not like America and are even unwilling to call Islamist Jihadists extremists.  Obama even wants to change the American Constitution because that document is the creation of dead old white men who had great minds unlike the Libtards in the stupid party.

http://www.youngcons.com/liberals-are-freaking-out-over-this-new-anti-obama-ad/

http://www.akdart.com/lib10.html
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