Trading by Brazilian individuals has dropped to the lowest level since 1999, exchange data show. Russian mutual funds posted 16 straight months of outflows, the most since at least 1996, and withdrawals in India are the biggest in more than two years with many investors losing more than 50% of their savings. Chinese investors emptied more than 2 million stock accounts in the past 12 months. Soon Obama will be finished with the fantastic manipulated US economic numbers which most employed people know is a lie because people wait in offices all over the country right now for pink slips they know is coming because American business simply cannot afford Obamascare without personnel cutbacks. Performance is high but American workers live in fear. Within a month Obama will swing the economic statistics back to reality and worse as he seeks more spending and taxes from congress and he begins to blame the bad doctored numbers on attempts to reign in the Obama deficit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-15/brics-abandoned-by-locals-with-fund-outflows-highest-since-1996.html

US Senate Democrats and Obama would like $975 billion more in new tax revenue in their new bill.  The increase is more than the total budget (without the war) was when Obama took office.   Others think this number is another down payment. Obama also proposes to slow the rate of rise in welfare and entitlements by the same amount.  If that is what they plan to slow the growth of the welfare state then one hates to think how much it is being increased.  The Republican plan cuts spending by $6Trillion over the same period and reduces the corporate tax loopholes while reducing the maximum corporate tax from 35% (the highest in the world) to about 25% (still one of the highest) to give a net “0” change in corporate taxes.   But that being said it has the effect of bringing the corporation’s foreign “stashed money” back to American circulation.  The Europeans use a value added tax on products sold so corporate taxes there are much smaller.  Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have begun to consider the rising cost of American debt as US Treasuries interest rates rise with inflation.  That is what broke the backs of Greece, Portugal, and Spain and is now just beginning to affect the USA. 

Treasury rates are rising and that is why all bonds and bond funds are at risk.  When interest rates rise… the old issued bonds lose their value and collapse.  The higher interest rates draw money from the stock market.  When they get above 5% the economy stagnates and the stock market stagnates and usually inflation gets out of control and that is when gold rises ten to twenty times in value.   With Jimmy Carter it was known as “Stagflation” and gold prices rose faster and faster. That all takes a short time when the government is run by socialists and the economy is destroyed by the growth of government and the welfare state as was the case in Europe in the 1920-30’s.  That is what is happening in Greece, Spain etc and most of Europe now as they sink deeper and deeper into welfare.  That is where Obama and his left wing are taking America, or at least are trying their best to take America to the European form of socialism which later becomes National or International Socialism in its “ultimate” form and the Hitler’s and Stalin’s rise to power again.  That is when they have no more people at home to rob with taxes… so they conquer and loot their neighbors.  That is when genocide is used to get rid of the “complainers.”  That is when gold or diamonds become worthless because if you had it they already killed you… you subhuman ilk which they despise.

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/13/17299251-senate-democrats-offer-budget-plan-with-tax-increases-and-spending-cuts?lite

http://dailycaller.com/2013/03/14/democrats-budget-plan-seeks-1-5-trillion-tax-hike-plus-10-year-spending-boost/ 

If Americans do not learn the history of the rise of Hitler and Stalin we are doomed to repeat the terror and genocide of National Socialism (Hitler) and International Socialism (Stalin).  Only there will be no America to arm the free world and send an army to free Europe.  We could actually be the world’s enemy if America ceases to be a free Republic as it has since its inception.  

The Wall Street “good news” hype for the rally was overstated.  The “Super Storm” Sandy explains the record home building and sales and the small uptick in jobs.  It explains the record sales of Lowes and Home Depot and record retail sales as NY and NJ build and furnish replacement homes. The Fed gave $51 Billion alone and the insurance and state aid is estimated to be three times greater.  The home building and other statistics only records the boost in new homes built to replace the homes destroyed but nobody subtracted the houses that were destroyed that equaled or exceeded the number being built.

http://therealdeal.com/blog/tag/hurricane-sandy/

http://blog.archpaper.com/wordpress/archives/54914

http://www.nysenate.gov/press-release/senator-lanza-announces-housing-extension-sandy-victims-new-checkout-date-tsa-program-

Is the domestic army formed and now armed?  A domestic army is unconstitutional!   These are not detectives like the FBI focused on crime and terrorists.  6billion rounds of ammunition is 2thousand rounds per American. It is interesting that Snopes has not commented on this for over a month.  It makes people think it is because Snopes do not want to admit it is true? 

http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20130215-dhs-to-buy-1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammunition 

Here is a Federal sales tax of 4+% hidden by Obama is his socialized medicine.

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p510/ch05.html 

George Soros sold his gold last year and is looking for a low price to buy in.  The market has not responded in his favor, so his friend Obama has been called upon to send the US CFTC to join the probe by Soro’s friends in London, a probe of potential bank gold price fixing.  George Soros is the biggest market manipulator in the world but gives politicians enormous contributions when they harass people and things that get in his way. 

Why is quantitative easing failing to create growth and jobs?  The reason is that QE is not growing the corporate top line because it expands credit but not the money in circulation and because the velocity of money is still declining.  You can see it with people unable to refinance because while interest rates are low the borrower feels ripped off with points from the many facilitators who take their points up front.  And the lower the interest rate the bigger in comparison the cost in points becomes.  Much of the money in circulation sits idle because the FED has made the cost of money negative with the low interest rates.  We cannot have growth when there is no inflation pressure to force people to put money to work.  But that is the rub.  QE is addictive and the FED fears the withdrawal symptoms which are painful reductions to the welfare society of dependency.

Samsung Electronics Co. is targeting the iPhone’s U.S. loyalists again with its biggest run yet, unveiling the new Galaxy S4 at Radio City Music Hall a few blocks from Apple Inc.’s flagship store in New York and broadcasting the event live in Times Square.  “The upcoming event in New York has big implications because it’s Apple’s home ground,” said Chung Chang Won, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Seoul. “This is the first time Samsung has launched its Galaxy S phone in the U.S.”  We warned of this when Apple was at its high because the products rushed out the door were Steve Job’s last ideas.  Since then Apple has done little or nothing to hold market share.  We anticipate Apple will drop sharply again but will become a good buy before hitting 350.

 

The economist Nouriel Roubini was dubbed "Dr Doom" when he predicted the credit crunch.  He has now agreed with us and has sounded a stark warning about the long-term effects of relying on quantitative easing to keep crisis-hit western economies afloat.  "Over time, you get zombie banking, zombie corporations, zombie households, which is damaging in the long term," he said. The phrase "zombie banks" was coined in Japan, to describe insolvent lenders propped up by cheap cash.  He now agrees QE is addicting and has withdrawal symptoms.  Roubini stressed that "QE" had been critical in fending off a new Great Depression after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. But said "The short-term benefits of QE outweigh the long term risks," he offered nine reasons why such unconventional monetary policy could damage the economy in the longer term.

At issue is how central bankers across the globe will eventually unwind the uncharted stimulus measures enacted to prop up global growth since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. Debt levels have soared for governments across much of the developed world. In Europe, political leaders are trying to save the region from a fiscal crisis now in its fourth year. Rather than unwinding the debt spiral they may be setting the stage for another round of “Great Monetary Easing” according to Morgan Stanley. See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/23/nouriel-roubini-quantitative-easing-zombie-banks

Serious issues

75% to 80% of the Treasuries sold to finance US debt are now being purchased by the FED not China or Japan.  The other countries are forced to QE also to prevent their currencies from appreciating and their economies from getting squeezed.  Recently Japan recently increased their QE to drop the value of the Yen further than everyone else and the world did not like it.  Japan’s market improved but foreign investors saw nothing because in was in deflated Yen.  For the last few weeks we showed US rates were as low as they could go and the FED was pushing on a string.  Now our rates are so low that the percent increase from 0.3% to 0.6% is a 100% increase which means a 50% loss for people owning the treasuries bought at the lower rate.  0.3% is the effective rate of inflation in treasuries at this moment.  It slightly exceeds the general inflation rate but is very significant because the treasury rate inflation in previous years was negative even while real inflation was at 0.2%.  Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats are accounting for the rising cost of American debt as US Treasuries weaken with inflation. 

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Genocide against Christians in Pakistan drives Christians to seek a separate state from the Moslems just as the Moslems sought separation from the Hindus.

China is replacing the one regulator who has been attempting to clean up the fraud in their stock market.

President Hamid Karzai accused the US of colluding with the Taliban for access to Afghan natural resources when the US pulls out.

The International Monetary Fund predicts the world’s developed economies will grow only1.4 percent this year, half the 3% minimum developed economies sustained in the past. 

In 2003 the German economy was forecast to contract after stalling the previous year. A reform package was announced a meant to kick-start a country that had gone from post-World War II miracle to the sick man of Europe.  Lauded by Merkel and her party, which supported it then in opposition, the program spelled an end to German job security.  As the program took effect, the jobless rate declined from a postwar high of 12.1 percent in March 2005 to 6.8 percent in December 2011, the lowest since reunification in 1990. Last month unemployment held at 6.9 percent.

South Korea’s unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to the highest in a year. 

Italian bonds borrowing costs increased at an auction Wednesday amid concern a political deadlock will derail plans to fix the nation’s finances.   The bond values fell suddenly with two-year yields rising the most in two weeks.

Ireland is trying to unload bonds now as it appears internationally interest rates are beginning to rise and future sales could be prohibitively costly.

Chinese stocks tumbled today in Hong Kong after the nation’s central bank chief said he’s on “high alert” for inflation.

Three years ago, Germany’s largest utility spent 400 million Euros building a natural gas-fired power station. Later this month, the company will close the plant because it’s losing so much money as Europe’s weak economy holds back electricity demand, requirements to buy government subsidized expensive renewable energy and the collapsing cost of carbon permits to burn coal are undercutting gas-fired plants.   The pattern is repeated throughout Europe as utilities mothball clean gas plants. The impact is a disaster both environmental and commercial. Switching to dirty coal increases emissions and lowers profit for clean gas plants.  The disaster is a socialist fiasco as they let politics decide on concurrent implementation of conflicting social programs.

EU bank debt addiction said to face scrutiny to QE and high leverage is being scrutinized by regulators. 

American Economy

USA debt interest rate rose a solid 0.3% in the past year in spite of the FED buying treasuries to keep the rate low.  The FED is losing control finally and inflation is now near their limit of 2.5% even with growth stagnated at about 2%,

The fear of inflation has become apparent with the extension of Quantitative Easing the “Quick Obama Fix” for the economies.

The productivity of U.S. workers fell in the fourth quarter by the most in four years, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.

The stock market is beginning to re-engage with the economy and is unstable because the FED created a balance sheet bloated approaching a trillion dollars putting US and world stocks in the stratosphere.     

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 

This weeks Calendar

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Obama has fudging the report numbers to make them look good again like he did before the election and then fudging them worse again when sequestering and the debt ceiling delays were negotiated.   He is making things look better and driving stocks sky high now so he can manipulate the data worse again in a month or two and blame the Republicans and say the deficit cuts of sequestering are already hurting too much and we need to tax and spend more.  That is what socialists do.  They are good at wrecking economies and blaming and harassing their critics.  Criticize them and they audit you and harass you with nonsense that requires you to hire accountants and lawyers to defend yourself.  They love to start harassing corporations a few months before campaigning for contributions from corporations.  Obama had all of Wall Street coming to him with handouts a full year before elections and notice all the litigation was dropped against Goldman and others who made tens of $billions on insurance against liar loans.  Everyone who understood the fraud bought insurance that paid off when the liar-loan derivatives collapsed and Goldman Sacks the biggest winner from liar loan fraud didn’t even get a slap on the wrist. 

Mar 13

MBA Mortgage Index 03/09 -4.7% sharply lower filings from14.8%

Retail Sales Feb 1.1% 0.2% slight increase from 0.1%

Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 1.0% down from 0.4%

Export Prices ex-ag. Feb 0.6% inflation more than 0.5%

Import Prices ex-oil Feb 0.0% import prices constant this time from 0.2%

Business Inventories Jan 1.0% still increasing slightly 0.1%

Crude Inventories 03/09 2.624M down from 3.833M

Treasury Budget Feb -$203.5B down from -$237.7B 

Mar 14 Initial Claims 03/09 332K down from 340K

Continuing Claims 03/02 3024K 3100K down from a manipulated 3113K when on a consistent basis it would be up from 3094K.  What is worse is they may have falsified the 3113 by later adding 19K after the announcement when no one knows or reports it to make this week look better.

PPI Feb 0.7% up initially from 0.2%

Core PPI Feb 0.2% flat at 0.2%

Current Account Balance Q4 -$110.4B up from -$107.5B

 

Mar 15

CPI Feb 0.7% jumped enormously from 0.0% at an 8.4% annual rate due to energy.
Core CPI Feb 2.4% still high down from a 3.6% annual rate when QE3 ends when it exceeds 2.5%
Empire Manufacturing Mar 9.2 down from 10.0
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan $25.7B down from $64.2B Foreign investment in the USA is declining as QE3 pushes foreign interests out.
Industrial Production Feb 0.7% bogus Obama number up from 0.0%
Capacity Utilization Feb 79.6% about as high as it goes without new investment 79.1%
Mich Sentiment Mar 71.8 sharply lower from 77.6 indicating Obama is no longer credible.

The Market, March 15, 2013

Jim Cramer said Tuesday that in the history the Dow has never had a winning streak this long that was not followed by a sharp pull back.  Even Jim Cramer is now concerned that the market has been over hyped and he should knows about hype.  But it continued up another day.

Foreclosure filings rose in February, but were down 25% from the same period in the prior year, according to data released Thursday.

The only argument that makes sense for the high and rising stock market is the possibility that investment is shifting from debt interest equities to stocks.  The people switching into stocks at a market high are probably the one’s who sold there stocks in 2009 near the market low and bought the low yield debt. 

The VIX was like this in 2005-2006 when it looked like the market would go up forever.    Low Vix means excessive exuberance.  A 10% equities decline is now possible and it could last about another month on average before a breather.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe