Monday, January 13, 2014

January 17, 2014 The NYSE and broad markets had another weekly decline with the broad market lower for the year to date. We have now liquidated most stocks except some gold mining stocks. We are preparing now for the next buying opportunity.

Jan 15   The FedEx Express Segment reported for the second quarter Dec 18, 2013, revenue of $6.84 billion, down from last year’s $6.86 billion.  We know December was a wash-out at the stores and the Xmass season was 5 days shorter this year.  Fedex said the internet sales were poor because Fedex did not make as much on seasonal express delivery.  We know the government shutdown caused transportation gridlock and cancelations of  travel plans in September and October.  Yet just like in previous years Obama says we  just jumped the shark again in the last Quarter to 3% growth from 0% inflation adjust growth.  The truth is inflation is now approaching 2.5% per year which is the rate the Federal Reserve said it should be when they have to reduce quantitative easing.   And the Fed has done what they said they would do.  Last week the Administration even lied and said unemployment was down to 6.5% as Fed originally said they would require to reduce QE3.
When do we know a government incompetent and when do we know a government is outright lying to its people?  If the information is full of errors it has a lot of scatter and corrections but it is just random up and down errors, then the government is just incompetent.  If a government is outright lying, its lies are biased and typically so absurd that they have to continually revise old numbers the next time so that the new number looks more believable.  Obama’s administration has been lying and continually reports great growth and declining unemployment numbers then later they are revised closer to the truth.  Almost every year he said the recovery has begun and the last quarter was up about 3% and will be 3% next year.  But every year we have seen 2% growth of which 2% is actually just inflation. 
They leave it to you to make an error and assume they corrected their numbers for inflation.  But they did not correct them!  If they had adjusted for inflation it would say the growth was inflation adjusted. MSNBC/Pravda makes most of its money lying to the public and they hype the economy so Wall Street rewards them with advertizing.  Selling hype for Wall Street is the only reason MSNBC/Pravda can stay in business.  They sell exciting lies because they are in the venerable snake oil business.  Their political stance is totally socialist and they are supporting the government handouts so the government can buy the votes to get the government hands in the pockets of working Americans.  Obama hired 20,000 additional IRS agents when he was first elected.  And when they grab your “you-know-what” you know it will be too late.
Obama thanked Governor Christy for his endorsement last year but to prove it wasn’t political, there will be two Federal investigations of how Christy spent the Federal money Obama gave him after Sandy hit.  30,000 dead Mexicans from Obama gun-running but no investigation of that.   Illegal Obama tapping of American phones and computer devices but Moslems bomb Boston after Obama was tipped off by the Russians the year before and he did nothing.
 
January 13, 2014  Goldman Sachs said, Stock valuations are ‘lofty by almost any measure’  Beware!  See our “Thee Market’s” section to understand that the bubble in the hedge funds and market makers.  Will your insurance cover the money they will lose when the bubble pops?  The more dangerous it becomes the more they inflate the bubble.
 
In the news.  There is a popular uprising brewing for this November 2014 election day.  The lame duck Senate and house members who had been voted out of office in November 2012 were called into session by Obama and each duck voted unanimously to pass Obama’s socialized medicine.   Then later Navy Seals lost their lives in a helicopter ambush because Obama identified their unit as the ones who killed Osama.  Neither display of compete contempt for the American Electorate and our patriot soldiers indicated that Obama knows how to lead a constitutional free society.  This November Americans have a chance to return America to free enterprise and exceptionalism in education, medicine and science the way it was before the socialists learned how to buy election with taxpayer money and sold out American workers. More than 1,000 American soldiers have lost their lives in Afghanistan in the last 27 months. This is more than the combined total of the nine years before. Thirty alone have died in August. During the last month, over 50 additional NATO and US servicemen have been murdered, inside jobs by those who Obama pays to be a force for good in Afghanistan.   The VETs claim the commander in chief has gone AWOL. Not a peep for the 50 murdered soldiers, although he ordered the White House flag flown at half-staff for the Sikhs. There is a deep disgust, and a fury, growing in the ranks of the military against the indifferent incompetence of this administration.
 
The Great Depression had a recovery period after 1929 and then collapsed about 80% to a low.  Obama’s second shoe has not fallen yet.  The derivative market based on Obama-Frank-Dodd liar loans collapsed and broke the banking system.  Now Obama has spent the next generation’s retirement  on reparations payments, gun running, food stamps, and a wonderful work free life where everyone can be an artist at workers’ expense.
 
Motley Fool called Barrons a fool for recommending Barrick Gold as a top 10 pick in 2014.  Time will tell who the fool is. 
 
World Economies
January 17, 2014 Europe’s largest investment bank by revenue, Deutsche Bank AG (DB), fell the most in more than five months after a report that executives are considering issuing a profit warning.
Jan 16 The pound dropped after U.K. house prices declined in December, indicating the economic recovery is returning to recession.
Hollande the French socialist has four children from his first mistress and sent his second mistress to the insane asylum recently when he started up with his third mistress.  He is as smart, ethical, and compassionate as socialists come.  He thinks the government is necessary because people just are not compassionate.  But it is people like Hollande, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot that lead “compassionate” socialist countries.  Decent people like Angela Merkle think compassion and human virtues are close and personal and cannot be delegated to others.
Firms Tripling Junk Returns Lure Most Since ’07: Credit Markets
 
Jan 13  World trade just plummeted again last week towards it former lows.   
China appears to be reeling now from bad loans.  There is no soft landing possible.  While a Great Depression is possible it is more likely China is in for just a very poor year ahead.
Angela Merkle was raised under communism and knows how stupid and evil socialist leaders can be.  She is just ignoring Obama who keeps criticizing Germany for having a trade surplus.
The secret to Germany’s success is that they live within their means.  If every American saved 25% of their income they would be living within 75% of their means.  The Chinese immigrants to America saved more than 50% of their income.  Obama’s relatives are on welfare because they spend more than they earn.  If Obama was smart enough to learn from Angela Merkle he could help his voting block achieve greater incomes by doing like the Chinese and Germans and just live within their means by saving 25% or more for a rainy day.  Easier said than done!  Obama should save his economic advice and listen to Angela Merkle who knows a lot more.
 
South America is taking Obama’s advice and expanding their socialist takeover and American investors are leaving.
 
The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 13
Treasury Budget Dec $53.2 B up from -$1.2B --- Tax income now more than pays of the government waste but it means Obama has begun to draw down private money to pay for government waste.  This could slow the economy through April.
Jan 14
Retail Sales Dec 0.2% -0.3% down sharply 0.7% --
Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.7% nonsense 0.4%  Auto sales must be positive or zero, they just cannot be  negative.  If you subtract positive or zero sales how can the % be greater than it was before!  Obama nonsense ---
Export Prices ex-ag. Dec 0.3% is higher so it hurts balance of trade 0.1% --
Import Prices ex-oil Dec -0.1% is lower so it hurts balance of trade 0.0% --
Business Inventories Nov 0.4% down is good 0.7% ++
Jan 15
MBA Mortgage Index 01/11 11.9% up from 2.6% +++
PPI Dec 0.4% up from 0.3% which is a 4.8% annual inflation rate. -----
Core PPI Dec 0.3% up from 0.1%  still 3.6% inflation without food and energy ----
Empire Manufacturing Jan 12.5 up from 1.0 obvious bogus numbers since manufacturing rises before not during Xmas.
 Crude Inventories 01/11 -7.658M down sharply from -2.675M----
Jan 16
Initial Claims 01/11 326K down slightly 328K -
Continuing Claims 01/04 2856K flat 2865K
CPI Dec 0.3% up 0.0% --
Core CPI Dec 0.1% down 0.2%
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov -$29.3B deficit widening $35.4B--
Philadelphia Fed Jan 9.4 up 7.0
NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 56 down 58 -
Natural Gas Inventories 01/11 -287 bcf down -157 bcf  -
Jan 17
Housing Starts Dec 999K down 10% from 1107K --
Building Permits Dec 986K down 2$ from 1017K -
Industrial Production Dec 0.3% slacked sharply from 1.1% +
Capacity Utilization Dec 79.2% little changed 79.0%
Mich Sentiment Jan 80.4 down 82.5 -
JOLTS - Job Openings Nov 4.01M flat 3.9M +
 
The Markets
January 17, 2014   The market seems to be stalling out now.  When a sharp correction occurs of more than 15% it is usually time to put buy orders in at least 10% below the market prices because many brokers put limits on how low you can bid.  The reason for the low big is that the market often spikes down even lower in the days ahead and you might even want to cancel your bid and wait if that happens.  The market was at its highest just before Obama was nominated and it fell 60% in total after his nomination and election.  So you can see that if you got in when it was only 25% lower after his nomination you still would have still lost about 40% more after he was elected.  This year the situation will probably end up with the socialist being kicked out of Congress.  But Obama can still do a lot more damage to the economy.
Inflation is cocked and ready to fire but the cost of debt is being maintained artificially low like Cyprus and Greece did before their debt crisis.  Goldman Sacks employees make an average of $400,000 per years and that included the pay of their chauffeurs and bell hops.  Most of them are sports jocks who are hired for their competitiveness not their intellect.  They now make more than twice what doctors make and more than three times what engineers and school superintendants make.  That is an indication of the pent up inflation that will eventually be released in prices.  If the socialists are re-elected America will remain in the quagmire of all nations that fall deeper into socialism.  The socialist nations that experiment with free enterprise only advance under those conditions.  Margret Thatcher saved Britain for her terms in office and a string of Republicans starting with Regan saved America after a string of Democrats and Nixon.
January 16, 2014   The market was up on declining individual investor volume again.    There are few individual investors to put a floor under the market.  Institutional investors have bid stocks up into the stratosphere.  When the market lets go it will be ugly and even trading firms may go under.  Most investors are not protected very well if their brokers fail and stocks and options could be frozen with a trading halt when this market finally corrects.
 
The market is high because there are no “good” investments and Obama pumped in $1 Trillion per year with nothing to spend it on.  So do you invest in hallucinogenic drugs or the stock market?  Small investors do not like the choice so more than half the stock market investors got out and stock market volume fell 50% just under Obama.  But with mostly institutional investors their net profit falls to zero no matter how high the market goes.  The market can go up to these ridiculous highs because their institutional stock market farce will only be obvious the moment that bubble unravels and all the paper gains vanish in a few days.  The funds are starting to lose the real trading money and all the 20% plus profits are on paper because they stay close to 100% invested.  Beware.
 
 
The market is high because there are no “good” investments and Obama pumped in $1 Trillion per year with nothing to spend it on.  So do you invest in drugs or the stock market?  Small investors do not like the choice so more than half the stock market investors got out and stock market volume fell 50% just under Obama.  But with mostly institutional investors their net profit falls to zero no matter how high the market goes.  The market can go up to these ridiculous highs because their institutional stock market farce will only be obvious the moment that bubble unravels and all the paper gains vanish in a few days.  The funds are starting to lose the real trading money and all the 20% plus profits are on paper because they stay close to 100% invested.  Beware.
 
Obama just said that after paying off the corrupt contractors in full for delivering no socialized medicine, he will not prosecute and claw back the wasted money he will just fire them and take them out of the limelight.   It had come out that corruption (helping incompetent friends) is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy I 2014. 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cgi-federal-scrutiny-obama-fundraising/2013/10/27/id/533310
 
World trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected but it looks like a bottom has formed. Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the current year highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 15.

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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