Monday, January 27, 2014

Jan 31 Obama now claims the last two Quarters, with the all the shutdown hullabaloo, has been the best since he was elected. However he claims the pace of growth in the U.S. private sector slowed in both December and January, with declines in new orders and employment components according to his administration’s latest industry report on Monday. The last quarter’s growth was initially faked as 4.1% gains, far too high for Obama’s claim to be believable, but most of the October and November data got by without the public noticing it was also falsified data. Even though the socialists claimed that the Government shutdown over the budget was badly crippling the economy in both October and November, the socialists slipped up and first claimed the economy grew a whopping 4.1% in that quarter. But now Obama claims the pace of growth slowed in December and January after the government shutdown and revised the last quarter from 4.1% down to 3.2% growth. In fact Obama still claims the last two Quarters (6 months) including all the shutdown hullabaloo has been the best last two quarters since he was elected. That lie will last for a month or two until they revise it down so that they can claim the economy improved in the current quarter. That is not being cynical it is just showing how socialists perpetually lie because every socialist is a disaster waiting to happen and they disparage and blame others for the failures of cradle to grave socialist welfare.

Obama supporters were asked directly if Obama would endorse a Karl Marx for US President, and  many actually signed the petition to that effect.  The question it raises is, does that indicate the low level of the intelligence of Obama’s supporters, or do his supporters actually think Obama is a Marxist?  Either way our country is in grave danger.

In 2013, Obama for the first time in American history allowed the American national debt to exceed the American gross domestic product.

"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by sword. The other is by debt." John Adams
John Adams was an early advocate of violent revolution, a gun holder, and 2nd President of the USA.  John Adams lived at a time of high faith and morality and did not know that with socialism you could also lie and cheat your way to the top.   Many in America are beginning to see that the “self esteem” movement in the American school system is a national socialist cheating exercise where you first lie to yourself through school so you can learn how to lie your way to the top... even president.  You are called a nasty Republican or a nasty Conservative if you believe that studying and working hard is a better path than lying, and cheating to attain a high self esteem and fake your way to prosperity as socialist try to do.
 
Aristotle wrote that compassion and all other human virtues are personal and they cease to be virtues when we abdicate them to our institutions. In other words, compassionate government is a contradiction of terms, as Lenin, Mao, and Pol Pot so eloquently have pointed out.  But there are many stupid and lazy people in the world who know nothing about civilization, economics, or ethics.  And they lie their way into the highest places of government and pretend they are compassionate.
 
Bloomberg reported state tax increases are providing states with more tax dollars to spend this year while the private economy gets tighter.  All the new state taxes are a new drag this year on the socialist economy.  At some point Americans and the world will realize there is no wizard behind the curtain of the American economy, there is just someone who lied and cheated his way to the top and continues to lie and cheat thinking economies run on false optimism and falsified data.   It is someone who thinks teachers should correct national student test scores to improve student self esteem.  The USA was #1 in education throughout the last century until 1993 and since then has dropped to #17, well below many socialist countries.  Of course since socialists lie and cheat their way to the top, no examinations in socialist countries have any credibility whatsoever. The National Socialists thought they were a superior race and the idiot International Stalinist Socialists’ “agricultural geniuses” were starving before they gave up.
 
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 8.8% in December to a more than two-year low due in part to unusually cold weather across the country, pointing to signs of a slowdown in the housing market.
 
A good compromise for a minimum wage would be one for first year workers and workers under 20yrs, and one for seasoned workers over 20yrs of age.
 
If the ad business is doing so much at Google, how come no one is selling much product or hiring?  Advertizing sales on the internet and all the services provided by wireless are incredibly easy targets for fraud.  A few people have been caught setting up sites that click on ads to raise the income of the web site for web sites that cheat like Obama to be successful.  Some crooks even publicly advertize that they can increase the response rate for ad agencies that use their sites. 
 
Some internet users dislike the advertizing and click on ads and then cancel not even knowing that it still helps the ad companies that they hate.  Any clicking at all encourages people to put up more annoying ads.  If you are getting annoyed as much as most people, then do not click on the ads. There will eventually be a falling out and the stock prices of cheating advertisers will plummet and industries will realizes that the return on those ads has been very low.  Of course if the companies got smart they would email the people who click and find out if they actually even clicked on their ads.
 
Jan 29
 "The American Republic will endure until the day those who govern discover that it can bribe the public with their own money."
Alexis de Tocqueville (1805 - 1859)
 
Yahoo disappointed investors with a 1.7% decline in fourth-quarter revenue even excluding traffic acquisition costs.  The company's closely watched display-ad revenue continued falling, off 5.9% also excluding traffic acquisition costs.  Ms. Mayer has struggled to entice advertisers to spend more money on Yahoo sites. The company's profit was 33 cents a share, but analysts had expected 38 cents.
 
Target thought they had a secure system but they estimate over 100,000 people may have had financial information compromised.  Imagine the chaos a terrorist could do corrupting Obama’s database and using Obama’s system to attack the insurers.  Apparently Target was attacked through a vendor’s database.  Perhaps Obama’s data base will be door into the database of the US Treasury?  Clearly no one knows very much about those risks because the Obama family friends who got the contracts to build it were replaced without any investigation.
 
Jan 28  Apple disappointed investors with lower than anticipated sales in China and the US.  Mark Mobius of Templeton says we could have a 10% or 20% correction but he thinks the market will be higher at the end of the year.  He says the Fed will never liquidate their $4 Trillion balance sheet and will only just end QE and not take back the cash they put into the stock market.  However, without a Fed cash flow into the stock market at these high prices investors are going to go elsewhere.
Jan 27   Obama claims he plans to assert a unilateral agenda on a host of issues to force changes to hiring practices, education, infrastructure and other indicatives.  He has done that before over the botched “Fast and Furious,” and to prevent Congress from seeing any documents ahead of its vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress.  If he does try to assume dictatorial powers his popularity will plunge much further.
 
Snopes confirms the opinion that the Obama’s are in fact Leninists who have spent over $1,000,000 to keep their past legally sealed.  You may remember how Obama got to run for the Senate.  He did it by having his opponent’s divorce records unsealed so Obama could show the world the terrible things their wives and wives’ lawyers had said about them.  It will be years before we know what the Obama’s did that they are ashamed to have made public and thus have had sealed.
 
World Economies
Jan 31
The UK and Irish austerity plans seem to be paying off.  U.K. mortgage approvals are at a high.
A QE currency meltdown is occurring in countries where socialist selfishly spend their children’s’ futures on themselves.
  
More than $10Billion has flowed out of ETFs investing in developing nation assets in the past month the most ever. Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF is poised for the biggest monthly redemption since the fund was started.
 
Mark Mobius of Templeton says the crisis abroad is caused by the Fed taper of QE because US QE money had bought many foreign bonds only because the Fed had drastically reduced US bond interest rates.  That cheap Fed cash inflow from America caused excessive borrowing by emerging nations.  Now American investors are dumping their emerging market bonds causing foreign country interest on debt to increase and bring emerging countries closer to bankruptcy and default.
 
Argentina is going Marxist and is expected to default on debts.
 
Gold appears to have bottomed out.  China is now the world’s primary buyer of gold. 
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The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 27
New Home Sales Dec 414K down 10% from 464K
Jan 28
From now on we are going to show how the administration inflates economic reports and then revised the old economic data down closer to the truth.  This is not a random error this is a systematic Obama administration distortion of the nations vital economic statistics that has inflated the stock market.
Durable Orders Nov revised down from 3.4% to 2.6%---
Durable Orders Dec -4.3% from way down from the 3.4% reported Nov.---
Durable Goods -ex transportation Nov revised down to 0.1% from 1.2%---
Durable Goods -ex transportation Dec fell -1.6% from  1.2% from Nov report----
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov 13.7% flat from 13.6% 
Consumer Confidence Jan 80.7 up slightly from 78.1 +
Jan 29
Jan MBA Mortgage Index 01/25 -0.2% down sharply from 4.7% -
Jan 30
Initial Claims 01/25 revised up to 329K from 326K --
Initial Claims 01/25 Current 348K up from 326K --
Continuing Claims 01/18 2991K down from 3007K +
GDP-Adv. Q4 last 3.0% was revised lower from4.1% --
GDP-Adv. Q4 3.2% down from 4.1% - -
Personal Income Dec 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -
Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.3% up from 1.2% -
Pending Home Sales Dec -0.3% last month estimate declined from0.2%--
Pending Home Sales Dec -8.7% this month much worse 0.2% --
We show how they hide bad news in the first report when the revised news gets reported later and few people se it.  The downward revision seldom is reported on the news.  But to be consistent the first report this month is shown vs. the first report last month
Jan 31
 Personal Spending Dec 0.4% down from 0.6% -
PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.1% flat 0.1% ++
Employment Cost Index Q4 0.5% up from 0.4% -
Chicago PMI Jan 59.6 up from 60.8 --
Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan 81.2 up from 80.4 +
 
The Markets
Jan 31
Friday the DOW is down 5.2% so far for the year.  Friday the broad NYSE is down 3.1% so far for the year.  Statistically, 73% of the time the stock market drops as much as 30% during the year but only averages down about 8% for such a year.
Jan 29
In the past the market has not paid attention to Obama’s state of the union speeches.  This time it is pretty clear Americans have finally given up on him.  He has as much sense got the sense of a freight train.  Just one glimmer of common sense from him would turn this country around.  After shutting down gulf oil drilling, vetoing the oil pipeline, and opposing gas/oil fracking Obama took credit last night for the USA becoming more energy independent.  He is like the class clown that every American experienced at one time or another.  The socialists are going to get thrown out on their ears.  They don’t listen.
 Jan 28   Markets are now under pressure and a correction of -20% is being posited as normal.   We will keep people posted if the selling says a major correction is likely. 
Jan 27  The markets are down in America because American Industry is being bled dry and harassed by the Obama administration.  They don’t seem to break in and shut down small businesses any more but they have been intimidating and bleeding banks at regular intervals with multiple “final” settlements.  The FED flooded the world with cheap credit and it is now being reduced.  Wait to see how much worse it will be when the FED starts taking back the $trillions already spent.
 
World bulk trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected, and the recent gain has evaporated.   Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the Obama administration’s world trade highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 14.  This is not a good moment in time.
 
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
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