Fox Business reported that the number of mortgage
applications for the week ended Friday fell 4.1% from the week earlier,
according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey. The unadjusted purchase index rose 2% from
the previous week but was down 16% from the year-earlier period, the MBA said. But somehow the stock market media claimed
record purchases. They did that by
comparing with 2008 when the economy was in collapse. Not only does the Federal Government slant
the news, but so do MSNBC and others that have to keep their advertisers happy.
Sept 24 MSNBC Squawk
Box concluded today that Obama has really messed up America . Each 1% increase in the FED interest rate will
cost Americans an additional $150,000,000,000 in budget deficit per year. It is unlikely that the FED will ever be able
to raise the rates as high as 4% for twenty years without causing an economic
depression. Obama’s Quantitative Easing
policy has increased the wealth of only the top 10% of Americans and has
unemployed 26% of the poorer Americans. And
unemployment will get worse if we raise rates.
That is the bind we are in. QE
took Japan ’s
fastest growing economy in 1990 and trapped them in stagflation for 24 years
thus far. In American dollars Japan ’s stock
market has gone down for 24 years. Today, Japan ’s market is only approaching its
level in 2007 and is 60% lower than the Japanese market was in 1990. See the chart below.
Sept 23 Even MSNBC
Pravda’s Jim Cramer had “Sell Signal” plastered all over his studio last
night. The classic “head and shoulders”
formations have formed in several indices. Mass inversions of corporations cause Obama
to cripple American tax revenue as corporations and wealthy citizens flee
harassment by the Obama-Holder-IRS regime in America . Home sales dropped 5.3% from last year
showing the building recovery is over.
Last January the Obama Administration said they met their socialized
medicine goal of 10 million people.
Eight months later they say they have 7 million people who have
joined. Everyone else apparently will
have to pay the penalty for missing the deadlines. In the mean time the number of people claiming
the disability entitlements and who pay nothing has doubled in the past year.
The "Reader's Digest Version" of OBAMACARE.
Here are the 10,535 pages of ObamaCare condensed to 4
sentences...
1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to
uninsure the insured.
2. Next, we require the newly uninsured to be re-insured.
3. To re-insure the newly uninsured, they are required to
pay extra charges to be re-insured.
4. The extra charges are required so that the original
insured, who became uninsured, and
then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the
original uninsured can be insured, which is their free entitlement as US
citizens, except for you fools who like to work for a living.
This redistribution of wealth" ... or, by its more
common name, Socialism.
REMEMBER this on November 4th!!
World Economy
Sept 26 The fiction
of economic strength anywhere in the world is evaporating. New internet companies are fart burning
through their money with neither profits nor rising revenue. Today’s exorbitant prices are justified by
growth of subscribers not profits and get subscribers and volume is how the FED
cash is being burned. There is no rational argument for today’s stock prices
other than too much cash chasing too few companies.
Sept 25 ISIS has stopped advertising their brutality as the
world’s leading nations begin bombing them.
The new problem is that it gives ISIS the opportunity to send terrorists
home with a cover story that they were disillusioned with ISIS . The world knows they are all criminals and
even the quitters are psychopaths that must be rehabilitated in prisons.
Sept 24 China is on the edge of a real estate melt down
and the communists are beginning to ruin Hong Kong .
“When Hugo Chávez was running in his first successful
presidential campaign, back in 1998, he was asked point blank in several
television interviews whether or not he was a communist. His reply was
identical to the one given by Fidel Castro to Princeton
University students during his visit
to the United States
in 1959: “I am a humanist.” Years later, on consolidating total power in his
own hands, Chávez again emulated Fidel and confessed to being “a convinced
follower of Marxist-Leninist ideology.” Today, Obama says he is a humanist too,
not a communist.
Sept 23 The dollar weakened
on air strikes on ISIS in Syria
and European stocks dropped overnight.
The No. 1 song is in the British Empire
is in reaction to a terrorist religion.
If you look at Germany where the people have
perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped
out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually
weakening.
Obama’s incompetence gave the FED the opportunity to cripple
free enterprise the same way socialist Japan did in 1990. Japan has never recovered. Japan’s stock market appears to have topped again
and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative
Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen
years ago. At its most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and
down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It
has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has
destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected
people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
Bret Stephens wsj "what Obama knows"… not very
much indeed.
“I've been thinking about this as it becomes clear that,
even at an elementary level, Mr. Obama often doesn't know what he's talking
about. It isn't so much his analysis of global events that's wrong, though it
is. The deeper problem is the foundation of knowledge on which that analysis is
built.”
“Here, now, is reality: In Japan, the economy is
contracting. China 's
real-estate market is a bubble waiting to burst. Indonesia 's democracy may be
solidifying, but so are Islamism and the persecution of religious minorities.
Democracy has been overthrown in Thailand . The march toward freedom
in Burma —supposedly
one of Mr. Obama's (and Hillary Clinton’s) signature diplomatic victories—has
stalled. India may do better than before under its new prime minister, Narendra
Modi, but gone are the days when serious people think of India as a future
superpower. The government of Pakistan
is, as ever, on the verge of collapse.”
“As for Latin America, Argentina just defaulted for the
second time in 13 years. Brazil
is in recession. Venezuela
is a brutal dictatorship. Ecuador
is well on its way to becoming one.”
Sept 23
Existing Home Sales Aug 5.05M down from 5.15M –
FHFA Housing Price Index Jul 0.1% sharply lower from 0.4% --
Sept 24
Mortgage Index (*transactions) 09/20 -4.1% sharply lower
7.9%---
New Home Sales Aug 504K 420K 435K 427K 412K
Initial Claims 09/20 293K up from 280K --
Continuing Claims 09/13 2439K up from 2429K --
Sep 25
Durable Orders Aug -18.2%
sharply down from 22.6%--
Sep 26
GDP - Third Estimate Q2 4.6%
not even credible
GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 2.1% flat at 2.1% -- not credible- energy is down and housing prices are flat. Deflation has started in some countries.
Michigan
Sentiment - Final Sep 84.6 flat 84.6
GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 2.1% flat at 2.1% -- not credible- energy is down and housing prices are flat. Deflation has started in some countries.
The Markets
Sept 26 Buying was
sharply lower Thursday but sellers appeared numerous and previously opened buy orders
at lower prices were executed for the sellers to take advantage of dropping the
vast majority of stocks. There was no
panic selling but active buying
evaporated and standing buy orders at lower prices were triggered.
Sept 25 The volume
of shares exchanged in yesterday’s rally showed no enthusiasm. At these lofty stock valuations companies are
being caught gradually delaying the recognition of expenses and speeding up the
recognition of income. That artificially
inflates profits. Once the market
plummets, the corporations return to conservative accounting practices and
recognize their losses while their stock prices are low. The term used is,”They take their bath.” They clean up their books. At the highs the MSNBC pundits blindly pump
out the distorted corporate and government statistics. Then they are quiet about the bad news that
is quickly dumped on shareholders. This
makes the market decline very sharp and deep compared to the bull marked where
the data manipulation occurs slowly. One
often used trick is a new artificially priced derivative. Another is the trick of taking debt off the
books like corporations did until 2000 and even Greece
and Cyprus
did until 2008. Once the stock market
starts taking the bath, it spreads fast.
As we warned before, look at URE back to the start of the
real estate ETF and you will have an idea what a DISASTER ETFs have in
store. URE is up several hundred percent
since 2009 but is still 70% lower than it was when it first came out in 2007. This will be the newest disaster that small
investors will face. Long ETFs will be
a major disaster in the next bear marked.
Sept 24 Market
volume still has not picked up but stock prices are weakening at a faster rate. Alibaba is incredibly overvalued in today’s
market.
Sept 23 Is the
meltdown beginning? The Market Cash Flow
index had a pronounced head and shoulder sell signal with the activity the last
three weeks. S&P 500 fell by largest
margin in seven weeks. But a strong cash flow exit is high volume
dependent and volume has remained moderate.
The Stock market is now cash driven not value driven. The cash in-flow is out of control. When one asset becomes inflated it is used as
the basis for loans or in many cases the inflated buy-out offers for other
assets driving up prices and debt. While
bank leverage is limited often to less than 20:1 the leverage of corporations
becomes unlimited because the asset prices themselves have no regulation
limits. As soon as cash flow begins to
contract the house of cards will collapse and the FED knows that and is so
terrified it has been trapped like Japan was back in 1990. Look at the Japanese stock market since 1990
to see what America now has in store.
The S&P index shows the current highs are more
exaggerated than seen in the other indexes.
Look at the
volatility index and you see complacency and that the market could fall much
faster when volume gets back to normal. This market has little volume or
volatility. So when volume picks up
suddenly, past history says the market usually plunges. That is not a good moment in time for holding
equities.
World market updates:
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