Monday, September 8, 2014

Sept 12 While Google’s Android is the most popular Smartphone software, the company lags behind Apple Inc. in generating revenue from children’s mobile game applications. Now Google is turning to a white cat and a gang of monsters to catch up. Google, which sells games and other media through its Play online store, is boosting support for recreational dropout game developers in Japan to take more of their apps overseas. This trend away from business and scientific applications spells near term doom for both Goog and Appl.

Laptops should have a comeback once the economy picks up.  But a booming economy will have to wait until we have an American President  and Congress that understands macroeconomics and doesn’t think a dictionary definition of the term is all that is important.  Incompetence, gun running, recreational drugs, recreational technology, spying on and harassing critics, and corruption are the legacies of the current American administration.
 
Conservative President George Bush was far more intelligent and had 21 nations supporting his move on Sadam Hussein’s terrorist government that had invaded Kuwait and was planning to take control of strategic Mid East oil production.  President Bush left boots on the ground in Iraq because it was needed just as it is needed in South Korea which also has insane neighbors.
 
Sept 11  On 911 let us remember that the evil empire for the last 97 years has been Russia with their KGB of which Putin is the leader.  Germany was smart when the Berlin Wall came down and the free Germans said all the Russian occupiers Stalin planted in Germany had to get out.  Now it is time for Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Ukraine. Lithuania, and Belarus to get free of Russia and deport all the Russian informers and Russian military people that Stalin placed in their countries to continually intimidate and control them. 
 
The housing industry stalled and the cold slow season is about to move in.  Home depot will take a double hit with the cyber theft of the account numbers of everyone with a Home Depot Card and their associated bank accounts.
 
Sept 10 Putin is the most dangerous person in the world today, far more dangerous than all of ISIS.   ISIS is an army of the insane that will naturally destroy itself once every extremist realizes that joining ISIS is the last life choice they will every make.   ISIS is death to all its followers because there is no return to a normal life.  Putin has nuclear weapons and thinks like a KGB criminal.  The chaos Putin is creating in Europe, the murder of 298 people in a commercial airliner, is similar to the effects of the first invasion of Bohemia by Hitler.  If Putin takes all of the Ukraine it will be like when Hitler invaded Poland and WWII was declared.  The only way to ultimately end the Russian threat is to deport all Russians that have settled in Europe the same way that Stalin deported all the Germans living east of Germany.  The Ukrainians are of Swedish heritage not German heritage.  Peter the Great defeated Olaf, King of Sweden and annexed the Ukraine.  Calling Ukrainians Nazis is a Putin slander of his victims of aggression.  But Putin likes to call the Ukrainians Nazi because they hated Stalin as much as they hated Hitler.  In fact Stalin and Hitler were about equal when it came to depravity.  Both Stalin and Hitler were as mentally deranged and as evil as the leaders of ISIS. 
 

Sept 8  Inversions are a symptom of the long term decline of the American economy under the entitlement society socialists that control the Senate and the Executive branch of the US government.  The longer those socialist stay in office the more intractable the US decline becomes not just in leadership but in all industrial, energy, scientific, and innovation competencies.  There is a point of no return when the creative and industrious people become so frustrated they go on strike and take a permanent vacation.  We are not there yet but even nationalized rationed socialist medicine is becoming more difficult to reverse.  The American system was designed to allow each state to become a laboratory of democracy and each American state is like a nation state with its own educational system just like the EU or the British Commonwealth that has each nation state with its own heath system as well as its own educational system and system of government.  If we can get a new party in power we can let states like Massachusetts, Tennessee, and California experiment with their own medical system and let the other states have free enterprise medical systems if they chose.   We predict all the best newly graduated doctors would leave the states that have socialized medicine.
 
World Economy
Sept 12  The Asian stocks fell again with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreating for a seventh day. The equity gauge posted a 1.7 percent decline this week as investors weighed the poor outlook for the Obama Administrations faltering QE monetary policy and poor economic reports from China.  It is the longest losing streak in 4 1/2 years, as Chinese lending data added to signs the region’s largest economy is weakening.
 
Sept 11
Finland, whose economy contracted in two of the last three quarters, estimates about 5 percent of its trade with Russia will be hit by restrictions caused by Putin’s invasion of Crimea and part of the Ukraine. The nation, which has underscored its support for sanctions, is more exposed than any other euro member to a slump in Russian demand.
Finland’s economic reliance on its eastern neighbor shows the unacceptable cost of any trade after Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine. Prime Minister Alexander Stubb says Finland’s economy is in the middle of a “lost decade” as Russia collides with the EU and the national sovereignty of the former slave states of the USSR.
 
Sept 10  World commodity prices are sliding and that is a leading indicator that the rate of world growth is slowing.   The QE trap appears to have sprung on the FED.  They are paralyzed with fear that the American economy will sink if USA Quantitative Easing ends.  Europe is now sliding into a recession as the cost of alternative energy rises and the cheapest and cleanest form, nuclear energy is phased out due to the fear Japan let out of the box by building their facilities on a tsunami threatened beach.  The selection of that location was typical of Japanese bureaucratic incompetence.
 
Sept 8  Most of the world economies are now in decline due to entitlement societies that demand more pay and fewer work hours so they have more time to spend wealth than to create wealth.  The EU block is now getting ready to go on Quantitative easing and lock themselves into the Japanese socialist conundrum of stagnation and incompetence.  Before the Japanese nuclear disaster incompetence ruined their confidence in nuclear energy their aviation industry incompetence prevented their growth in conventional technology.  Socialism leads to national incompetence in every economic sector and the growth of a prison mentality.  In Russia they still have a Gulag and the UN is trying to get the Russian who saved the Russian  oil business from collapse out of prison.  Putin is now an absolute dictator with the powers of a Stalin or Hitler.
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
Obama gave the FED the opportunity to cripple free enterprise the same way socialist Japan did in 1990.  Japan has never recovered.  Japan’s stock market appears to have topped again and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
…has been stagnant since the liberal socialists took office.  Their Quantitative Easing was invented by the Japanese liberal socialists and put into effect in 1990.  Their economy has been stagnating ever since.  You would think liberal socialists could learn from their mistakes but they never do.
Sep 8
Consumer Credit Jul $26.0B loaded up from $17.3B --- high consumer debt.
Sep 9
JOLTS - Job Openings Jul 4.673M unfilled job openings declined from 4.675M –
Fewer jobs are now available for unemployed Americans.---
Sep 10
MBA Mortgage Index 09/06 -7.2% crashing down from 0.2% ---
Real estate is contracting.
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.1%  up slightly 0.3% -
Sept 11
Initial Claims 09/06 315K up from 302K
Continuing Claims 08/30 2487K up from 2464K
Treasury Budget Aug -$128.7B high deficit continues -$129B
 
The Markets
Sept 12 
The second shoulder formations are beginning in the broader indices, the DOW, and small cap stocks.  They have peaked tending to confirm last months technical predictions that the market would peak near the beginning of September.  Compare the bell  weather DOW and the broad NYSE for the last six months and see it you think they have formed a top.  The smaller selective technology indices tend to trail the overall market.
 
Sept 11
Most world markets declined overnight.  Obama is preparing to declare war on ISIS and halt their extermination of Moslems.  Iraq could be broken into three pieces.  Western Iraq merges with Syria, Eastern Iraq merges into Iran and Northern Iraq oil fields go to a new Kurdish state aligned with Turkey where they have religious freedom for Christians and other religions.
 
Sept 10 The market has declined to a 65 day moving average (dma) level the first selling resistance level.   The 250 dma level needs to be broken before a selling panic or bear market normally occurs.  That resistance level has held up four times since 2012.  Presently the stock market is deteriorating.  We have predicted that the Achilles heel of this market will be the collapse of the ETF market and the re-emergence of intense short trading.
 
Sept 8  The Stock market is now cash driven not value driven.  The cash flow is cascading out of control.  When one asset becomes inflated it is used as the basis for loans or in many cases the inflated buy-out offers for other assets driving up prices and debt.  While bank leverage is limited often to less than 20:1 the leverage of corporations becomes unlimited because the asset prices themselves have no regulation limits.  As soon as cash flow begins to contract the house of cards will collapse and the FED knows that and is so terrified it has been trapped like Japan was back in 1990.  Look at the Japanese stock market since 1990 to see what America now has in store. 
 
 Look at the volatility index and you see complacency and that the market could fall much faster when volume gets back to normal. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up suddenly, past history says the market usually plunges.  That is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 
 World market updates:
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