Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Late April 17 On a cash flow basis, on Friday, the indices we follow lost anywhere from one to three weeks of previous cash in flow. There was even greater relative cash flow out of the Russian and Chinese stock markets.


     The American leading indicators are drifting lower again.
 
       Bloomberg suffered an unprecedented global computer outage on Friday, disrupting trading around their world and frustrating investors just when they most needed to take action.  Stocks slid, completing the worst week of the year, with German stocks hit hard as concern grows over Greece’s negotiations with creditors.  Putin’s gift of a missile defense system this week has destroyed any leverage Obama once had with Iran and it is anticipated Putin has quietly undermined the EU with regard to Greece.
        China’s government acted with alarm to its first uncontrollable stock market bubble.  They know the bid up wealth has been used as collateral, and when the buyers stop buying anything built up on top of the bubble will be wiped out.  So China’s government may actually short the stock market and then shut it down and fleece all the speculators as a lesson to be learned the hard way.   That kind of thing happens every time Obama announces a new investigation to fleece the US banks and stimulate campaign contributions here and abroad.  That is why China, Saudis and others curry favor with the stupid party.  They not only love stupid politicians because they are clueless negotiators, but it allows them to show the world that some Americans are just as corrupt and abusive as they are.
 
Early April 17    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 1.8 percent to 403.6 at 4:32 p.m. in London, the biggest decline since January. All 19 industry groups slid. Germany’s DAX Index slid 5.6 percent for the period, the worst drop since 2011. Greece’s ASE Index sank 3 percent, pushing the gauge to the worst weekly performance among western-European markets.
        European stocks fell for a second day after reaching a fresh peak Wednesday, taking weekly losses to 2.3 percent. The Stoxx 600’s still up 18 percent this year, trading near the highest level relative to projected profits of its members in at least a decade.
       There were a few stock market head fakes but no market scores Thursday.   The major American markets again tested but failed to break out and even fell slightly.  Friday could be Black Friday or perhaps it will sink in by Monday after another Friday head fake rally.  We are at the historic highs and Mad Money has all the weak corporations hiding debts, losses, and declining revenues by playing games with their books.  But the government regulators now live in fear that the hundreds of $billions in repo market credit are only backed by the full faith, credit, and honesty of a junior varsity of untested traders.
       The major markets in Europe finished with large losses Thursday amid renewed concerns that Greece could default on its debts or worse yet perhaps rent harbor space to Russian destroyers in order to make their payments.  Putin is still considering selling older nuclear weapons to their Mid East ally Iran.  Obama let Iran invade Iraq to fight ISIS and now Iran won’t leave.  Half of Iraqis are Shiite Moslems and Iran wants to annex them now.
   The five American markets we follow were all down and four of them were on higher than average volume.  Again the market lost steam as it approached old highs and then sunk back from the previous day’s close.
        Sluggish housing starts have shaken builders’ confidence.
 
     April 16   Larry Fink today said that people who are investing with anticipating starting to use the funds within less than 20 years should be out of the stock market now because it could be 20 years to break even.  He said the big pension funds are now only 10% in stocks and 90% in bonds.  Under normal times they would be 50-50 in a balanced pension funds but it could be 20 years before the stock market sees the level it is at today.  After all it was 14 years ago that that the stock market was as high as it is now.   Once again highs were touched on Wednesday but there were no index price breakouts.  On a more accurate cash flow basis, all five of the five indices we follow appear to be topping out.
       George Bush got us out of the recession that followed Clinton’s yr 2000 Dot Com bubble without Quantitative Easing.  So far QE and everything else the Obama-Hillary Stupid Party has done has incentivized social decay.   And with no credible Stupid Party policies, we have criminal immigration at home and criminal Islamic and Putin Russian terror abroad destabilizing the world.  QE continues to drag the economy and infrastructure towards a breakdown and the precipice of another Great Depression.  We have the precipice of another stock market catastrophe in front of us ready to implode most of the wealth of the world.   And we have the precipice of a QE meltdown that could follow the depression with 1920’s type German hyperinflation that triggered the rise of genocide and the last World War.
       The stupid socialist’s parties of Stalin and Hitler took control in the 1930’s and they both exterminated their sick and poor under classes.  Everyone knows Hitler did it but few know that Stalin also starved to death his 10 Million impoverished peasants and his 5 million small farmers (Kulaks).   Everyone knows that on the “Night of the knives” Hitler had the stupid people of his underclass worker party (Brown Shirts) that originally gave him his power… murdered.  If the Stupid Party socialists get control of the world again they will also exterminate their underclass and cater to the wealthy just as the National and International socialists did.  Today the Stupid Party already uses its power to harass grass roots opponents and to reward the wealthy who contribute to their political action committees and charities.  http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/triumph/tr-roehm.htm
        The growing poor American underclass and the poor immigrants who refuse to learn English do not realized that they could be used by the Stupid Party.  Eventually Germany and Russia were ruled by “Executive Orders.”  The legislature was a rubber stamp, and the courts were appointed puppets of the worshiped leaders.   But when the German socialists got their 98% majority vote that Obama said would be a good thing for him, that is when they began to murder and expropriate the wealth of the top 2% and followed that by quietly killing all the stupid, sick and weak of the underclass that originally brought them to power.   The Jewish population dominated the Banking industry and was in the richest 2% when Hitler took power.  In spite of their extraordinary wealth, the socialists targeted them and directed hatred toward them and made them scapegoats.  Obama has frequently targeted the richest 2% in America and now they already support the Stupid Party.  The richest 2% think they can control the socialists with their money.  It took the “Stupid Nazis Party” less than ten years to take control and expropriate all the wealth of the richest 2% in Germany.
       NBC’s Cramer is once again badgering CEO’s and uses a wall of shame to incentivize corporations to use creative accounting to hide weakening earnings.  The Dollar strength is climbing again and that is making the US less competitive here and abroad. http://www.wsj.com/articles/pressure-in-repo-market-spreads-1428013415
MBA Mortgage Index 04/11sharply lower at -2.3% 
Empire Manufacturing Apr -1.2 a sharp fall in business activity from last month.
Industrial Production Mar -0.6% sharply lower
Capacity Utilization Mar 78.4% still falling
      April 15   China’s economy started the year on a downbeat note with its slowest quarterly growth rate in six years and weakness in key sectors which suggests the world's second-largest economy was still losing momentum.
       April 14   On Tuesday the market failed to break out again.  Emerging Markets, Small and Mid Caps, Semiconductors, Technology, and China stocks turned weaker while some US stocks rose slightly.  However no buy signals were given.   In fact within one or two weeks the Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, DJIA and NYSE indices all could have neckline breakdown sell signals with just slightly pessimistic news activity.  The NASDAQ still is lower than it was on March 3 of 2014.  Yet all of the indices are at their past bubble popping highs.
      IPO prices are 'completely nonsensical because the world is flooded with credit not cash.  Oil-rich nations are selling off their petrodollar assets at record pace trying to raise cash and anticipating a collapse in real estate transactions.
      Interest rates on national debt are plummeting and bank interest rates are starting to go negative.  Later this year we could be looking at a potential run on bank savings accounts because banks pay too little to offset the risk of a collapse of the world banking systems.   Why risk losing the money left at a bank that could go bankrupt?  We do most transactions with credit cards not cash and we do it transferring electrons (representing cash) across networks not real cash.   It came out just last week that it was USA FBI agents who electronically stole the BitCoin funds last year.   If some bank reserves vanished for a period of time and all you had was your cash held in your house, could your family live on it for a week?  What if the computer system breakdown lasted a whole month or several months?
      The Chinese economy is sputtering, so why did China's stocks soar this past week? The country's trade surplus slipped from 40.3 billion to 18.16 billion Yuan. Exports plunged nearly 15 percent year-on-year, and imports fell 12.3 percent.  The Communists apparently cracked down on gambling and the corruption cash outflows.   Recently it all flowed into domestic stocks which created an enormous bubble.    More bad news is expected Wednesday, when the government is scheduled to release data on China’s gross domestic product for the first quarter. Industrial production was "particularly weak" said Paribas’ Chief Economist Richard Iley. Bloomberg Industries analyst Kenneth Hoffman added, "China's metals demand is plummeting," "and it's a lot worse than you think."
 
Pension funds are prepared now for an expected stock market meltdown.  For the first time in more than a decade, they hold more bonds than in stocks.
 
Consumer prices decline as Obama deflation/depression sets in.
Business sales and inventories are slow under the Stupid Party.
 
Russia lifts its ban on weapons for Iran giving them a missile defense system that can knock down American or Israeli missiles as well as aircraft as the incompetent Stupid Party still can’t get its act together and another Obama deal falls apart.   Now Israel would not be able to defend itself.
 
The stupid party has a presidential candidate now.  It is the same person who abandoned the American Consulate in Libya allowing four Americans to be killed by Islamic Terrorists and then she blamed an American Jew for her incompetence because the American film maker dared to make a film on Islam.   The film maker simply showed that the Prophet took a bride of nine years of age.  That is not an insult to Islamists only the film maker being Jewish is an insult to them.  To this day men in Islamic nations and ISIS territory can take brides as young as nine years because the prophet did it.   No it was Hilary’s incompetence for not protecting any US embassy on the anniversary of the 911 attacks on the World Trade Towers.  On the next anniversary of 911, every embassy was in lockdown in a Stupid Party opposite extreme.
 
By Tuesday evening I checked, and this site was then working correctly.  Earlier it had appeared sabotaged.  I ran into another administration negative site last week that appeared to try to launch a virus attack.   One button cut off an attack and then I did a security scan and the attack was thwarted.  The politics of the Stupid Party is becoming more dangerous for freedom of speech as well as for religion.  The IRS attack on Historical Societies, the Tea Party and other "dangerous" thinkers in 2012 showed Americans the repulsive practices of the Stupid Party. http://video.foxnews.com/v/4168832065001/judge-jeanine-hillary-clinton-is-only-out-for-herself/?intcmp=obnetwork#sp=show-clips
 
April 13  The Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, and NYSE indices all ended at and tested their highs and failed on their first attempt to break out.  The NYSE has gone nowhere since July 3, 2014. The DJIA has gone nowhere since Dec 8, 2014.  Standard and Poors has gone nowhere since Feb 27, the Nasdaq and Russell have been topped out since March 3.   It is possible
 
While the DJIA ended above its 18000 level it was still more than 1% below its high.  Monday will be a critical test and if there is no breakout virtually every American index will likely have seen its high for this year.  There is still so much money chasing investments and this will be a major test of the NYSE sell signal last year that has been the NYSE limit since July 2014.  If this test does not result in a breakout buy signal, then we expect a major breakdown of the other indices starting very soon.  Caution is advised.
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