Sunday, June 28, 2015

July 2, 2015 The untruthful Obama claim of a jobs recovery rewrites the definition of full employment. That is a polite way the Washington Post has of saying that the Obama administration has been the most incompetent, corrupt, and prevaricating administration in the history of the USA and you especially cannot believe anything good he says about the economic Great Depression he is slowly and meticulously creating. At the current rate we will have the Obama depression before the 2016 election cycle. But first we expect a world wide stock market panic.

            It appears the world stock markets are ready to enter the end stage of the Obama economic recovery, and with Obama leading from behind we should enter the first phase of an Obama economic depression.
            When the East Germans were freed from socialism in 1989, the popular quote was, “We pretended to work and the socialists pretended to pay us.  That is how it is in Greece today.  To European socialists, freedom and austerity still have the unpopular connotation of having to get off one’s duff to actually do some work or else be fired and have to find a real job.   Free enterprise is awful for someone raised in a socialist cradle to grave rest home work environment.   They think Germans and Americans are nuts when we say that they should enjoy working for a living.    People with real skills and real intelligence actually do find or make their jobs something they enjoy doing.  Stocks surged on the report Greece was ready to accept demands then fell on the report Greece's Tsipras was against a bailout.  That flip flop was the work of the numerous CNBC and MSNBC commentators like Jim Cramer who always praise corporate idiots who meet their desired targets and ridicule intelligent corporate leaders who give the unwanted truth, especially when the bubble is about to pop.   The regulators have suggested that CEO be fined when they overstate sales, revenue, or profit.  First they need to fire Jim Crammer who has a wall of shame to mock CEO’s who tell the truth.
Initial Unemployment Claims 06/27 281K up from 271K -
Continuing Claims 06/20 2264K up from 2247K
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 223K declined from 280K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 223K declined from 262K
Hourly Earnings Jun 0.0% declined from 0.3%
            Puerto Rico's problems ($71 billion debt) are only 2% of the $3.7 trillion U.S. problematic municipal bond market debt.  California ($778billion debt), Chicago ($63billion debt), Detroit ($20billion debt), NYC ($110billion debt), and Illinois ($127billion debt) are ready to go under next.  While workers paid in for their Social Security retirement benefits, Obama, Clinton, Carter and other stupid party leaders have added millions of people with claimed needs and disabilities and many of the unemployed to the Social Security fund to the extent that in twenty years Social Security will have nothing left for the retired workers who are the only ones who actual paid for their retirement.  Who really believes the Stupid Party cares about workers?  The Stupid Party cares only about buying votes and not even if you are a US citizen when you vote.   On top of the $3.7 trillion municipal debt Obama now has the USA in debt to the tune of $18 trillion.  The Greek debt is only $330 billion or 0.9% of our municipal debt or less than 0.1% of our total US debt.  Greece is about as economically significant as the state of Alabama.  The real problem is the socialists wherever and whenever they are elected.
            The private job growth rate is at the level seen when the economy peaked and turned down in 2007.
The growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector dropped in June, hitting its slowest pace since October 2013.
            July 1, 2015   There is a growing convergence of unsettling news as the 2015 Stock Market Bubble implodes.  We have reached the point where low interest credit no longer helps the economy as all the investment worms and government parasites spread the something-for-nothing economic contagion.  Puerto Rico and Brazil were quick to hold out their hands.   Many of the high flying corporations are shell games with hidden losses, or Ponzi schemes where they load up with debt and pretend it is profit.  But once the bank letters of credit expire many small growth companies will be worthless.
            The US MBA Mortgage Index 06/27 plunged -4.7% indicating home sales will plunge in the coming month. 
            China now admits manipulating their stock market and plans to double down on it as a way to fleece foreign investors and keep floundering corporations in their declining economy afloat.  Of course that is a disaster in the making if the free world withdraws their money and the policy could conceivably even bankrupt China. 
            Obama plans to change overtime rules in another stupid party economic screw-up of American technological industries.  Scientists and Engineers and many great corporate leaders have their minds on their jobs almost every waking hour.  That is because creative people who love their work do not work just for the money.  It is a real pleasure for them.  Edison is an excellent example and he had a cot in his office and took power naps to keep working.  Obama and his “stupid party” obviously do not understand brilliant and creative people at all and his effort to force companies to pay more overtime is something they need in Russia or Moslem Indonesia where Obama grew up.  
            American law requires that a child be born in America not just of an American mother in order to be an American president.  The reason Obama’s birth certificate was challenged was because it was on a modern form not on the form used in Hawaii at the time of his birth.  There was never a question that he was an American.  The question was whether the Hawaiian document was forged so that he could run for president.  CT Senator Lowell Weicher could not run because he was born in Paris.
      A Federal Court ruled that Apple conspired with five publishers to increase e-book prices.  The fine is estimated to be $450 million.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/us-apple-ebooks-decision-idUSKCN0PA1RS20150630
            Nike co-founder resigns as investigations of Soccer bribes continue.
 
June 30, 2015  Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr 4.9% down from 5.0% -
Chicago PMI Jun 49.4, less than 50 means contraction of business in Chicago.
Consumer Confidence Jun 101.4, almost the same as when the last stock market bubble popped on 2007, but 35% lower than when the DotCom bubble popped in 2000.
            Stock markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply Monday, and U.S. shares dropped about 2%, as investors fled to safer investments after the Greek government closed banks Monday and the crisis over the country's membership in the Eurozone reached the end of the line.  France's CAC 40 index was fell 3.7%, while Germany's DAX fell about 3.6%.  Japan's Nikkei was off 2.9% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was off nearly as much.              The contagion is spreading.  Puerto Rico, Portugal, Spain, and Italy could be next.  Economist Larry Kotlikoff warned the Senate Budget Committee that Greece is more solvent than the United States.  The fiscal gap is “the difference between government’s projected financial obligations and the present value of all projected future tax and other receipts.” The projected financial obligations are also known as “unfunded liabilities” such as future Social Security payouts.  Social Security is completely funded by the workers but so much is spent on welfare that Lyndon, Jimmy, Bill, and Hussein have left none of the money for retired people.  We have to borrow more all the time.  At over $210 trillion, the U.S.’s fiscal gap is higher than most of the world’s economic basket cases.
            The only way to stop the fraud that allows manipulators like Jim Cramer and others perpetuate stock market bubbles is to throw the CEO’s who fraudulently report higher revenue or higher income in jail and take away all their ill gotten gains.  As we warned before, the bubble is now popping and as it does we will see how many companies are fraudulently inflating revenues and profits.  Private equity giant Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. will pay $30 million to settle civil charges that it misallocated more than $17 million in expenses and breached its fiduciary duty to its clients.  The settlement just brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission is in an area that the SEC is actively investigating throughout the industry.  The case is centered on "broken deal" expenses relating to the firm's unsuccessful investments.   Expenses, totaling $338 million over a six-year period were incurred by KKR’s investors such as pension funds, endowments and other institutional investors in KKR's flagship private equity funds.  However KKR did not disclose to these fund investors that its own company did not pay a cent of any of these loses even though they were investing in the same companies as the flagship funds' investors.  KKR only took a share of the profits not the losses and therefore their fraud made their books look good to stockholders even though they were poorly run companies of corrupt executives.
            Pending Home Sales in May were at 0.9% down from 3.4% last month.    The Obama administration plays a role in inflating the stock market bubble by faking the economic statistics.  The Obama administration actually reduced the value given last month to make the current month look better than it was. Price increases have also slowed compared to last year, rising 4.1% year-over-year in March.
            June 29, 2015  Bloomberg Businessweek reported that Walmart legally is cheating Americans out of taxes by hiding $78 billion through a web of 78 offshore branches and subsidiaries in Luxembourg and other wealthy nations where they have no Walmart stores at all.  Luxembourg enjoys the highest per capita income in the world thanks to traitor American corporations like Walmart that pay minimal tax protection fees for their services.  Walmart reported $1,300,000,000 in profits from 2010 to 2013 paying less than 1% in taxes by that method.   It is just another reason to avoid Walmart until they replace their CEO who opposes the Bill of Rights freedom of religion.  Obama’s current tax rate is 30% plus fines and penalties.  A Republican administration would reduce corporate taxes to 15% plus interest and that would result in a windfall of back Walmart and other hidden offshore taxes for Americans.
            Greece owes a large debt payment by the end of Tuesday, and has scheduled a referendum for next Sunday on whether to accept the terms of an offer from its creditors to release bailout aid needed to meet its financial obligations.  Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced Sunday night that banks would be closed as of Monday as the ruptured debt negotiations with the nation’s creditors began raising alarm in Washington, Brussels and Berlin.  “There Will Be No Grace Period for Greece,” IMF's Lagarde said.  The emergency measures and unpredictable state of a crisis could now ripple through global financial markets.
            Puerto Rico is struggling with a $73 billion debt load and faltering economy and is facing crunch time this week with a July 1 deadline to make a $655 million payment on its general obligation debt, while its struggling utility PREPA faces a $400 million payment. 
            Low interest rates have put corporations and nations on a borrowing spree and in a precarious situation. Just as falling interest rates have supported asset valuation gains in recent years, the FED normalization will generate losses and Banks' equity capital will shrink.  Corporations that went into heavy debt to buy back shares to push their corporation share prices up into the stratosphere would be facing earnings losses as higher interest rates on their heavy debt takes effect.  PE ratios would plummet and go negative as the low interest rate bubble pops.  But while that happens millions of share holders would scramble to dump their share quickly to try to avoid the losses.  Jim Crammer will then wake up and say, “They’re all crazy, sell, sell, sell.”  So far that scenario is still likely to occur by the end of this year.
            China's central bank cut interest rates again on Saturday and reduced reserves that certain banks must hold just one day after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plunged more than 7 per cent.  Japan’s stock market also appeared to be showing signs of instability Sunday night EST.
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Sunday, June 21, 2015

June 26, 2015 Housing stocks are beginning to take a hit as realism sets in. The leftists’ wishful thinking that there is a housing recovery magically fools them into believing there is a recovery. But the existing housing market remains saturated and the next generation needs full time jobs so that they can afford the current housing. Wages are going down faster than the minimum wage increases because socialized medicine’s corporate payments do not kick in if the company has only part time not full time employees. So in addition to the growing subsidized welfare underclass of Obama socialism, the “stupid party” is creating a large marginalized class of part time poor youth, illegal immigrants, pot smokers, and alternative life style people. Housing will not do well while the “stupid party” governs America.


 
Michigan Sentiment Final for was Jun 96.1 up from 94.6.  It is now at the same level as it was in 2007 just before the current recession began.

          Here is how the leftist news media is lying to you, telling you how good the economy is under the Obama “Stupid Party” followed by the actual plots of personal income and personal spending.  They are obviously lying and implying that things are better than before Obama was elected when in fact they are only comparing today to the bottom after Obama was elected.   The National and International socialists are opposite sides of the same coin.  Hitler and Stalin were both socialists and socialists strive for government control of everything.   Socialists have large propaganda machines that continually deceive the voters and end up with one political party and put anyone who disagrees in prison once they get power.  That is why we show you all the data so you know just how the leftist press and Obama continually try to deceive Americans.  First we show a web site with the misinformation and then we show the site with a full chart so you can see how bad things are and how they lie and say things are better.  The fact is that the “stupid party” put America into an economic hole and we are trapped until the “stupid party” is thrown out of our government. 
            The socialists are actually making income inequality worse than it ever was under capitalism.  Their trick is to avoid salaries for their dictators.  The rulers like Putin, Stalin, and Hitler never paid a nickel for anything.  They carry/carried no money.  They live/lived in palaces with servants and aides just like the kings prior to the Russian Revolution.  And the American leftists are so stupid they don’t realize the “Communist Party” is the modern aristocracy.  We have had a brief period of personal freedom and free enterprise between the “Old Aristocracy” of military dictators and the “New Aristocracy” of socialist dictators.  
            June 25, 2015   You can see from the following chart that the first term from 2003 through 2006 of George Bush had about 3.7% average GDP growth but it dropped to about 2% in the Dodd-Frank-Obama liar loan period just before the liar loan derivatives broke the banks.  You can also see the Obama recovery is at best averaging 1.25%/yr GDP growth just as the economy is about to enter a second Obama recession.  Remember, Hover had a recession and then Roosevelt had a follow-on recession and a 90% stock market collapse leading to the “Great Depression.”  To this day the leftist who run American Universities falsely claim Hover caused the “Great Depression.”  There was no run on the banks under Hoover.  The original American “stupid party” of FDR had the depression and then went to war against the “stupid party” of Hitler in Germany.
      The bubble is close to popping.  Come June 30 the Obama nuclear appeasement treaty with Iran will be seen as a failure and the economic disaster in Greece will probably only get another band aid.  In Greece the average person goes to on dates until the age of 30, then settles down and begins work at about 30 and retires with a full pension at age 45.  While they only work 30 hr weeks they average 7 weeks vacation per year.  That is the way stupid party socialist reduce the unemployment rate by reducing everyone’s work load thereby sharing what Americans would call part time jobs.  That is why Obama now has the government pick up the health care cost of Americans who work less than 30hrs.  He wants Americans working fewer hours so Obama can hide some of his incompetency dealing with the economy.   That is how the “stupid party” redistributes everyone’s poverty.
     June 24, 2015   Carl Icahn proudly disclosed today that he sold his remaining stake in video streamer Netflix at its recent high bailing out near the top of this equities bubble.
        New Home Sales for May were 546K up from 534K but down from 1390K before Obama’s “Stupid Party” Liar Loan Program intended to help ineligible people own homes.  The home ownership rate now is only 63.9%.  It is the lowest in 25 years.   Yet people are flipping homes now like they did at the peak in 2006.  We now have a glut of housing and record vacancies and house fires.  Housing is down but apartment building is up.  The “Stupid Party Press” said,” New home sales rose to 7-year high in May.”  They believe all Americans are just as stupid as they are because 7 years ago was actually the lowest level in the 15 years, since 2000.  So being the best in 7 years is pathetic!
     FHFA Housing Price Index Apr rose 0.3%.
     Walmart has been kicked out by stockholders from the top ten capitalized corporations in America.   Customers are leaving in droves too.  The current Walmart CEO joined a group of hateful elitist CEOs who said they would boycott individual States that specifically allowed their citizen’s freedom of religion.  Their corporations are now having problems that cannot be solved until their ignorant hateful CEOs leave.   No one told those CEO’s that most of their customers were the people the CEO’s hate.  Once stupid hateful CEO’s get involved with the goals of NAMBLA they can’t seem to keep their minds on their business any more and put their desires ahead of the needs of the corporation.  The employees of Walmart had been subjected to low temperatures, low wages, and difficult schedules indeed.  But by far the very worse thing any CEO’s could do was to put NAMBLA’s needs ahead of their employees and stockholders trying to force NAMBLA age of consent objectives on individual states and Christians and Jews who object.   Family values have been the target of all communist governments, hateful stupid parties, the first Clinton administration, and this Obama administration.  The stupid hateful CEO's of the following companies recently threaten US freedom of religion:   Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Apple, Anthem, and Nike.   We expect all of the corporations listed above will either have new CEO’s or will soon be in continual decline.  What intelligent people would work for such a foolish CEO or buy from them?
 
      June 23, 2015   William Jennings Bryan's famous “Cross of Gold” speech in 1896 was the American version of the Greek crisis today.  JP Morgan made his fortune betting that America would resolve its financial crisis.  For most of the 1800’s, the American banking system consisted of state-chartered banks.  The National Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 were the United States federal banking acts that established our present system of national banks by created the United States National Banking System.  It facilitated the development of a national currency backed by bank holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and established the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency as part of the United States Department of the Treasury and authorized the Comptroller to examine and regulate nationally chartered banks.  If an American state went bankrupt like Greece seems to be doing in the EU, would the US State have been expelled from the United States?  Of course not!  Vermont was a problem state in early America, hit hard by the gold standard at every recession.  Why isn’t any state in the USA or in the EU similar?  Neither can print Federal money but if a city or state goes bankrupt why couldn’t some of their state assets be sold off or the city/state use the national currency but not be allowed to print it.   They already have complete worker movement throughout the EU.  Why would any state object to the nation state owning and managing historic sites?  Greece would still have the tourism and jobs without the financial worries.
            The EU or private enterprise might be willing to pay a fortune for some of historic sites in Greece, or their islands.  All the early nations had growing pains and economic panics when they the established Federal Banks. 
            I can sense that you out there reading this blog also sense the broader market has already peaked and now the foam at the top of the rally wave is peaking.  Our first warning was when the cash flow into the broad NYSE peaked.  Only the NASDAQ cash flow peaked again this last time but it was insignificantly higher.
            Existing Home Sales May were 5.35M up from 5.04M but still 50% lower than before Obama came on the scene.  Maybe hearing Obama campaign promises caused the panic?
            Manufacturing is still going down and off the scale lower than before Obama.  Manufacturing durable goods orders in May were down -1.8% even worse than last month’s -1.0%.  Durable Goods -ex transportation May up weakly by 0.5% after a decline last month -0.2%.
            June 22, 2015   Putin and others who murder their critics could be classified as criminally insane.  Countries that enjoy freedom should boycott such nations that are led by the criminally insane just as we boycotted the Russian Olympics after they invaded Afghanistan.  That boycott helped lead to the collapse of the USSR.   The Obama “Stupid Party” earned that label when they declared all Americans “Stupid” as their lame duck defeated representatives voted to pass their legislation that they did not have time to read.  The “stupid party” is about to cave in on Iran and let nuclear proliferation arm the Jihad of the Mid East.  That will take the cake as perhaps the most stupid thing the “stupid party” ever did.  The free world should insist on boycotting all nations led by the criminally insane starting with Russia, and if necessary Iran and even Greece.  In fact if China wants to go back to the impoverishment of “stupid party” leadership then the free world should at that time boycott China.  Hopefully Americans will always reject their “stupid parties” who are always left or right wing socialists.  Democrats pretend the Nazi were not a National Socialist party and they and the Union of International Socialist Republics were run by “stupid party” dictatorships who thought freedom was an evil.
            Iran’s Islamic legislation just voted to deny verification that they are not developing nuclear weapons.  Is Obama going to be so stupid as to allow perpetual extensions of the settlement deadline?
            June 21, 2015   There is very good reason to get out of the high flying pharmaceuticals corporation stocks ASAP.  Sixty Minutes did a special on the corruption of the pharmaceuticals’ business model June 21.  They showed that the industry is completely corrupt.  Prices are determined by the commission of the salesmen and the percent kickback the doctors get for using or prescribing their drugs.  Kickback boosted prices are much higher than the honest costs of research and development because the costs are primarily a reflection of the incompetence and dishonesty of the drug producers.  For example Sixty Minutes compared two drugs of equal curative results where drug A cost twice as much as drug B.  The salesmen make the same average 6% commission on both so the salesmen tend to push the expensive $30,000 product not the $15,000 because they get an $1800 not a $900 check in the mail.  The doctors get a periodic kickback check from the corrupt corporations as well.  That causes drug prices to rise to whatever the market will bear.  Thus Obama’s Stupid Party corrupt socialized medicine spends 40% to 60% more for the same medicines sold to other socialized nations that have rooted out some of the corruption.  As a result many Americans get poorer treatment now with Obama’s Stupid Party corrupt socialized medicine and many Americans die if they are not on welfare and cannot afford the treatment co-pay.  We would get out of this stock sector ASAP. 
            And for that matter all previous bubbles had similar corrupt methods for either cheating customers or as Warren Buffet said, doctoring their revenue and profit numbers.
            Walmart once had greeters at the door to welcome customers.  Then they claimed their employees were stealing so they instead had security people roaming the stores and cameras recording deliveries of ordered goods.  Now the will have employees checking at the exits again because they think customers are stealing again.  Customers will be scrutinized as they leave and taken to a private area if they are suspected of shop lifting.  
            Twitter is incapable of coming up with a business model to profit from the millions of high school students and college dropouts addicted to social media.   Twitter allows the “Walter Mitty’s” of the world pretend they have a real life.   The problem is that Twitter hasn’t been able to fool people the way most IPO candidates have.  No one is nibbling.
            The CEO’s of the following companies threatened to put an end to America’s freedom of religion because Jews and Christians often discriminate against and imprison pedophiles.  NAMBLA homosexuals now say it is just the same as discriminating against all homosexuals.   That is nonsense of course yet it is apparently believed by some CEO’s today.   The following CEO’s said they are committed now to discriminating against states that practice their freedom of religion.  None of the CEO’s said they would discriminate against, stop selling to, or stop investing in and creating jobs in Moslem Nations where homosexuals are systematically stoned or burned alive.  This irrational CEO behavior shows immaturity and a certain disdain for the American Constitution and therefore extremely poor judgment.  Therefore, until these companies instate objective management we would avoid them.  No one can force you to even use the products of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike.  These were once under great management but have lost it.  And when the market bubble bursts stock holders will wish they chose companies with CEO’s who put the company first.
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Monday, June 15, 2015

June 19, 2015 Yesterday the NASDAQ hit a new high on a price and cash flow basis. That was quick and a surprise! We had given that a 10% chance. It was no doubt because the FED will raise rates by tiny increments so like we suggested so they do not panic the stock market. That has introduced some new stability that we did not plan on, but it was a good idea never the less. The Russell 2000 managed a new high in price but not in market cash flow. In other words there was a growing preponderance of lower volume on the advances relative to declines although the volume was normal yesterday.

            The MBA Mortgage Index last week was -5.5% compared to 8.4% previously indicating a likely slowdown in housing sales coming within a month.
            The SEC charged 36 muni-bond underwriting firms with making falsified optimistic statements or omissions of alarming information.
            Greece needs to cut retirement pension plans or else make government employees pay more of their salaries into the plans.  Greece should encourage foreign duty free zone investment for a set time period such as 10 years in which there are no government taxes.  That would bring in cash also.  The Greek people are intelligent and hard working.  But they should privatize because government jobs are often a boondoggle.  But as money is now being withdrawn from its banks, Greece looks like it will go bankrupt similar to the way Cyprus did.
            China has become alarmed by the large volatile flows of money into and out of their stock and bond markets.
 
June 18, 2015    On April 29 we said the FED should raise rates incrementally, “The FED must bite the bullet and raise the FED rate at least 0.05% and then incrementally grow the rate of increase so that the stock market collapse is not blamed on the FED. “  Yesterday the FED said they will do what we suggested and the market reacted positively.  On April 29 we also said, “The collapse will come because the stock market bubble must eventually burst and $Trillions of loan collateral will disappear resulting in a collapse of loan liquidity.”
The corporations will collapse under their own weight of debt because they leveraged up because loans were cheap.  When the collapse occurs we said, “The Fed must then put more actual dollars in circulation to prepare for credit defaults.”  That is because we now have a credit bubble and a stock market bubble.  If and when the stock market collapses later this year it will destabilize many corporations and banks.  We predict this collapse will result in computer attacks and fraud that will bring commerce to a crawl as credit defaults are amassed.  The timing may be slower but this scenario is probably as fast as it can happen.
  
June 17, 2015   Every index we follow is showing an exhausted USA stock market unable to break out to any new highs in any sector.  But unlike 2007-2008 many advisors are apparently reading this blog and passing the information along and are taking precautions and some are shorting the market for the first time in three years.  Only Jim Cramer is still confident but then again the stock market was down over 25% before he said “they’re nuts! Sell! Sell! Sell! Then he blamed the collapse on incompetent administration.  Then he sheepishly apologized over the next week because he likes the “Stupid Party.”  So we still hold to our prediction that Cramer will not capitulate until after September.  However, many advisors could do better predicting this time.  We believe with 95% confidence that the market highs for all the major US indices except the NASDAQ are behind us.  The NASDAQ has perhaps a 10% chance of making a new high.  Therefore we believe we are now about 2% to 3% below the market highs for this cycle and we officially announce this markets high was hit within the last month.  We are not doing this to advise anyone but only to keep a public record so that later we will see how accurate it is.  As one would expect many world markets also seem to have peaked.  While China also seems to have peaked we did not anticipate their recent run-up in prices as novice Chinese suddenly became capitalists.  The Russian market seems entirely manipulated and we would avoid both China’s and Russia’s markets.
            An analysis of China’s stock market indicates small short term amateur investors account for most of the recent trading and they hold a stock for an average between a week and a month.  Most analysts say China has a stock market bubble that is about to bust because exports and their economy have now stalled.  So what is new?  All the major world stock markets are bubbles ready to pop, including even Russia’s market.
            Greece’s central bank warned that failure to obtain desperately needed funding could lead the country into an “uncontrollable crisis.”
 
June 16, 2015   On a cash flow basis all the major US stock indices peaked before June 2015 and some like the Russell 2000 and NYSE already peaked by June of 2014.  On a price basis they all have peaked now and today the WSJ shows that the DJI and SandP prices have peaked for their 65 day moving averages.  It has nothing to do with Greece or Britain talking about leaving the EU.  It is the world economy cash flow peaking.  GAP, once the fastest growing trendy store, announced it is closing 25% of its stores.  Our predictions last October are on track for the next stock market meltdown.
 
Apple was dumbed down when its founder died and now has created a generation of dumbed down educationally retarded students that are well on the road to permanent unemployment.  That is growing worse just as the generations of Werner Von Braun’s rocket science students and Einstein’s nuclear physicists are retired and beginning to draw down their 401K plans as required by law by age 71.   The hedge funds are now faced with what will likely be at least twenty years of continuous cash withdrawals until a smarter generation of students comes along.  Voice to text translation is probably the only net economic value of the broad band surge.  Mind numbing games for the current ”Stupid Generation” will have a lasting negative legacy for at least ten more years until the ”Stupid Generation” is seen for what it is and they only begin careers when past generations became millionaires.  In the mean time single family housing will stagnate and apartment tenements will rise everywhere for housing the dumbed down Apple generation.
 
June 15, 2015   The Wall Street Journal showed Warren Buffet’s stock market indicator on the bottom of page C2.  The indicator said the market is more dangerous now than in 2008 at the end of the Obama Liar_Loan housing bubble and almost as bad as it was in 2000 at the end of the Clinton DOT_COM bubble.  Both bubbles were based on stupid theories of value.  Both DOT_COM bubbles equated high value to high activity not to profit or even revenue.  But this bubble is worse in that the IQ of the people today using Twitter, Facebook, and Apple products is about 82 while in 2000 the IQ of people using AOL, Microsoft Office, and Apple products was about 117.  We now have a generation of incompetent CEOs who inherited their jobs and cater to immature, unmotivated, and economically dependant product users looking to amuse themselves, hit on somebody, and to avoid studying or anything else that feels like personal responsibility or work.  When the DOT_COM bubble broke their stock holders went broke.  Some CEOs and investor’s never learn.   The Twitter CEO apparently knows reality and quit last week.
 
Christian and family values have been the target of all communist governments, the stupid party, the first Clinton administration, this Obama administration and the CEO's of the following companies.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike.

The New York Federal Reserve survey shows that manufacturing activity in New York State dropped to its weakest level in more than two years as new orders fell.  The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index fell from 3.09 in May to -1.98 in June, hitting its lowest level since January 2013.
The Federal Reserve said Monday that American manufacturing output declined 0.2 percent last month, as productivity has been flat.   Industrial production and manufacturing have been hurt by the stronger dollar and lower orders.
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Sunday, June 7, 2015

June 12, 2015 Today the WSJ repeated the error of CNBC missing the fact that retail sales are a one year change not a monthly change. 1.2% increase in sales from last year is dismal not fantastic as the WSJ and CNBC said. That kind of ignorant reporting is a factor in why the second Obama recession could be the Obama Depression. The Stupid Party does not fix problems it spins them and falsely reports them as successes. They are rotting out the economic and moral character of America with illegal spying on Americans and dirty IRS tricks on Christian, historical, business, and certain political groups and individuals. It is far more widespread than reported. Democrat state governments were coordinated by the Executive Branch to illegally harass and persecute political targets. Not only the IRS targeted people, but democrat state treasurers voted their state pension plan stocks to harass corporate executives (i.e. a CEO of Bank of America) that disagreed with Obama’s policies. And some state agencies harassed the same people and groups that the IRS targeted. The corruption of American democracy has been organized and quite extensive with this administration. It is our opinion that the executives of the following companies are now part of the organized political and moral corruption of the Obama administration and probably cleared their recent attack on American Religious freedom with the Obama Administration: Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike. Their CEO’s deceive themselves into thinking they are Gods gift to America and their stock holders need to wake up and clean up before their companies rapidly deteriorate. We would not touch their stocks at this time based on the corruption implicit in their collusion with the current corrupt manipulative administration. 30,000 Mexicans died with “Fast and Furious” which was an Obama-Holder plan to blame American hunters and veterans for the gun running deaths. Thousands of Americans were illegally harassed and audited by Obama/Holder’s IRS because they had Christian, moral, and patriotic beliefs. Now private industry CEO’s coincidentally joined in a coordinated attack on the very same people Obama-Holder targeted.

 
While being interviewed in February, Buffett indicated that the last asset he would want to buy is the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. When pushed further on the issue, he then expressed his conviction about this by saying that he wouldn’t even want to own a 10-day Treasury bond (if one should exist).  Indeed the US and German Treasuries have begun to be hit indicating that Quantitative Easing is now taking its toll on perceived credit risks.  He also said dubious maneuvers are used to manufacture rising per-share earnings, particularly if these acrobatics produce mergers that generate huge fees for investment bankers.”  At one point in his March letter to shareholders, Mr. Buffett argued: “Investment bankers, being paid as they are for action, constantly urge acquirers to pay 20 percent to 50 percent premiums over market price for publicly held businesses. The bankers tell the buyer that the premium is justified for ‘control value’ and for the wonderful things that are going to happen once the acquirer’s C.E.O. takes charge.”  Those premiums were baked into the stock prices and eventually the IPO values will collapse.  Fraud and fluff now could make up more than 50% of current stock prices.  We are now seeing all the indices beginning to roll over and lose altitude.
Inventories grew again as sales did not approach production levels.
June 11, 2015  Today the ignorance displayed on CNBC about the economy hit a new low.  Retail sales were year over year up a pitiful 1.2% including autos and yet the street said it showed a strengthening recovery.  See for yourself the truth.   The market experts got it wrong.  The 1.2% was the change from one year ago not one month ago and it is horrible.  It has fallen into the region that it was in  at the beginning of the recession in 2008.  It is in extremely pessimistic territory.
 
Russia is now contracting at a rate of -2.5% according to the World Bank and has critically low liquidity.  Yet Russia indexed ETF’s are near record highs.  It looks like there has been extensive manipulation of American ETFs.  Worldwide liquidity is very low and money is beginning to flee countries like the USA and Germany that have stock market bubbles.  Germany has seen a recent extensive stock market pullback and the USA has now seen multiple stock market sell signals.  For the first time in seven years several analysts are joining us warning that the market has topped out.
 
The number of zombie housing foreclosures is suddenly increasing as banks sense that the economy and home prices have peaked and a worldwide economic crisis could be coming soon.  They want to get out at the top even if they have to take a loss because prices could be 25% lower before the economy settles.  Banks were avoiding foreclosing on the houses until the losses could be managed.  But billions of unrecognized loses may soon begin to show up on the bank’s books.   It represents up to 25% of houses for sale in many areas.
 
Yesterday, none of the major American indices we follow on a cash flow basis were able to rise to their lower trend line so they are all still sell signals.  On a price basis only the NASDAQ rose to the lower trend line but on no increase in volume and it did not break through.  Therefore they all remain sell signals as well.   The DJRails and DJUtilities which we also checked both gave sell signals but to give an official Dow sell signal the DJIndustrials index needs to fall below 17635.  That is 365 points or just 2%  lower.  We estimate that a stock market crash could happen as soon as this week or as late as December.   Last October, and ever since then we said our broader market cash flow index gave a sell signal.  Also the technology and growth stock indices have on a cash flow basis given recent sell signals and all the indices are starting to give sell signals on a plain vanilla price basis.  We said that could come as early as early as summer but that Jim Cramer probably would not say sell, sell, sell in a panic again until the market is down at least 20%.  That could be as late as October/November, but investors who read our blog probably will be in cash or gold.  When the panic begins sales and production will drop and energy prices will plummet in anticipation of inventory buildup.
 
Bond values are now beginning to collapse because the economy is taking control away from the Federal Reserve.  The economy is leveraged to the eyeballs and default risk is beginning to rise driving up long and shorter term interest rates.  A Fed rate rise will soon be nothing more than an attempt to pretend the Fed still has any control.  The FED and banks are now losing control of the economy.  They are now pushing on a string.
 
Obama promises to send in 450 more American soldiers to defeat the 15,000 to 30,000 ISIS savages.  How about a little more fire power Obama?  How about night time B52 saturation bombing of selected areas ISIS controls whenever we see them congregating or burning people alive?   How about targeting every ISIS controlled city with single bombs two or three times every night at random hours to deprive them of sleep?
 
There is perhaps 3 to 5 cents cash available for every dollar of debt.  That means if the internet goes down or there is a run on the banks there will be hungry people, riots and social breakdown.   This may be a good time to withdraw some cash.   You are getting nothing for it anyway in the banks.  If you withdraw less than $10,000 the FBI may investigate you for trying to trick them but if you take out more they may investigate you for drug dealing.  If you are a Republican you may have to go broke fighting against Obama’s corruption and harassment in court.
 
June 10, 2015  On page A15 of today’s WSJ Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman explained the coming financial crisis pretty much as we did on June 8.  He makes the point that the Obama regulations may make things worse by adding to the current administration confusion.  “politicians and regulators constructed an expansive and untested regulatory framework that will have unintended consequences for liquidity in our financial system.”   JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has gone as far as to say that Wall Street is “under assault” now from regulators.   Economist Nouriel Roubini, who like us correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, recently made similar comments.
            Testla’s newest proposed selling features are red herrings.  Only the dolts of the world are interested in buying self driving cars that kill you accidentally when the automated driving features fail at high speed.  And when those failures occur Tesla will be sued out of existence.   Look how a defective simple ignition switch has destroyed GM.  Obama appointed the GM CEOs who hid the faults.   Europeans think the fun of driving the car is the main reason for having a car and they have built a much safer high speed mass transit for everyone who is just interested in getting from A to B.   Testla has captivated all the confused global warming worshipers who are simultaneously the mass transit haters of the world.   But if you believed in global warming and had a functioning brain you would believe in mass transit too, not a Tesla substitute.  Eventually Tesla buyers will be stigmatized and called cult followers.   Pope Francis has ordered the establishment of a special court to try bishops who mishandled cases of clerical pedophile sex abuse.   We need a similar court to head off a resurgence of NAMBLA in America.  The following companies might be considered commercialized cults with CEO cult followings that don’t understand true value;  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, Nike, and the Moonies.  When CEO’s get lucky and deceive themselves into thinking they are Greek oracles and have god-like powers they also seem to attack American freedoms and the America’s Founding Fathers who gave Americans the freedom to be everything Americans are willing to work hard at to be.  At the top of the hill cult leaders lose their powers.  Nike succeeded once more in cutting out competitors from FIFA advertising.
 
Former Congressman Hastert is a Republican homosexual who is being harassed by the leftists because he is a Republican and for no other reason.  The FBI and the leftist press are not prosecuting the person who was blackmailing Hastert for decades.  Instead this corrupt Obama administration is persecuting Congressman Hastert because he withdrew money to pay the blackmail in withdrawal amounts of less than $10000.  Obama’s administration contends that only Drug traffickers do that to avoid detection.   Hastert was blackmailed and was not dealing drugs so naturally Hastert has pleaded he is innocent.  This Obama administration is sick, sick, sick persecuting and humiliating a blackmailed gay Congressman just because he is not a Democrat, a left wing extremist, or a member of NAMBLA.  Where are the CEO’s of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, Nike when a fellow homosexual is persecuted by leftists?   Persecution is several levels worse than discrimination and the fact that the CEO’s of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike have no compassion for Congressman Hastert shows the CEO’s are very shallow.  These CEO’s and the Obama administration will be seen as pretty sick puppies if they do not stop the persecution of good Americans.
 
June 9, 2015  JOLTS - Job Openings Apr were 5.367M up from 4.994M indicating there is a growing shortage of qualified employees to fill American jobs.  This is a new symptom of growing social media and the Apple equipped students who play games and text in class and then drop out of Community College broke having learned nothing.   Job openings hit new highs because student competence is hitting new lows.  A survey of 128 CEOs between April 22 and May 13 found that top corporate leaders expect the economy to grow at 2.5% in 2015, down from 2.8% projected growth from the first quarter of 2015.  Just 34% of CEOs now plan to hire more U.S. employees this year due to the scarcity of people with the necessary job skills and work ethic.
            Rising interest rates are beginning to cause Bond portfolio’s to drop in value.  That will give temporary strength to stocks as people leave bonds.  But it is wealth destruction.  The wealth destruction is now in both stocks and bonds.  Eventually panic will ensue and people will diversify and many more may go into cash.
            Wholesale Inventories in Apr rose 0.4% indicating sales were lower than expected again.   Tesla and Apple are probably the two most overweigh companies at this time.  Since Steve Jobs died Apple has run out of good ideas.  Tesla and GM will likely go bankrupt within two years or be bought out by new management because they are going nowhere.  Apple products have no protected technology or patent value of significance as its products are used primarily to entertain children and the under employed.   And the young people who most use Apple products tend to drop out and become unemployable.  But for $10 per month students can now stream Apple music to listen to during General Math and General Science classes.  They are the Apple “don’t want no education generation!
 
June 8, 2015 We are now in danger of a second Great Depression.  Reserve requirements are the amount of funds that a depository institution must hold in reserve against specified deposit liabilities. Depository institutions must hold reserves in the form of vault cash or deposits with Federal Reserve Banks.   As of this January 22, the requirement has been:
            For more than $14.5 million up to $103.6 million, 3% must be held to defend a run on the FED.  This allows money in those quantities can be loaned out 33.3 times or (1/0.03) times the actual money held.
            For more than $103.6 million, 10% must be held to defend a run on the FED.  This allows that money to be loaned out 10 times (1/0.10) the actual money held.
            At the time of the Great Depression the rate was about 5% which meant there was 20 times more money loaned out than cash to back it up.   You can see that on smaller loans of under $103.6 million we are in a more dangerous position than at the start of the FDR’s Great Depression.  On large international loans we don’t have data from the Great Depression.   Herbert Hover had a recession about as bad as Obama’s, but socialist FDR was the one that then had the 90% stock market collapse and the Great Depression that lasted 1933 to  the end of WWII in 1945.  The “stupid party” never tells the truth about how they caused the Great Depression.  If Obama sets off a second Great Depression you can be 100% sure the incompetent and corrupt “stupid party” will blame the former president George Bush or something else.  We have veritable corrupt fools running the executive branch today.  What this all means is that if you consider most of the money awash in the stock market today, if there is a run on the banks like in 1933 then for every 33.3 dollars invested by citizens, about $1 would be paid out by the banks.  Anything more would be from printing new money and would be potentially hyperinflationary.  You can bet that Jim Cramer and all the other ignorant commentators on CNBC don’t understand that only roughly 3% to at most 10% of the stock price is based on real cash and the rest (90% to 97%) is borrowed money leveraged up.  And if they don’t know… then you can also bet the Obama administration is completely clueless.   Leverage was the cause of the collapse of the fraudulent Obama-Dodd-Frank American Liar Loan mortgages, and that triggered the collapse of securitized derivatives based on the liar mortgage fraud and brought down the American economy in 2008.
            If the DJI is peaking as it appears to be, then it will set off a major DOW sell signal, the signal that made the WSJ famous.  The Dow Rails have already given a major sell signal and it would not take much of drop in the DJI to give the major Dow Theory stock market sell signal.  As we pointed out only the NASDAQ shows any strength.
 
June 7 CBS 60 Minutes program showed how FEMA under Obama’s “stupid party” management engaged in fraud to cheat many non-Democrat homeowners who’s houses were destroyed by the storm Sandy.  But FEMA had insurance adjusters lie and claim the damage was mostly from old age to cheat the homeowners.  Most of the fraud was in “stupid party” controlled NY not in New Jersey.   Obama’s administration apparently illegally uses the IRS, FEMA and other government bureaucracies to target and discriminate against groups that think the Obama administration is corrupt and incompetent.
            The DJI, NYSE, S & P, and Russell 2000 have all given trend line breakout sell signals Friday but the NASDAQ is still testing its lower trend line.  That is a symptom of a correction coming.
            A Reuters survey of the top 100 retailers shows that of the 98 that sell in physical retail stores, fewer than 25% accept Apple Pay and 66% said they won’t be adding Apple’s mobile anytime soon.  Only four said they might add it next year.   Apple can hardly give away their ugly clumsy watches. 
            Christians, hunters, and military veterans and their families have become disenchanted with libtard CEO’s opposing the Constitution’s Bill of Rights that give Americans the religious freedom to boycott and oppose the tenants of NAMBLA on religious grounds and even boycott such groups and companies that support church leaders that prey on children.  In fact Libtard CEO’s and others might soon demand that the church can not discriminate against or defrock pedophiles who infiltrate the church… and Libtards may even call it illegal discrimination.  That is why Christians, hunters, and military veterans and their families have become disenchanted with those Libtard CEO’s who attack the Constitutions Bill of Rights.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the corrupt.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike support CEOs who want the constitutional religious rights of parents and churches restricted.   That was what it was like in both “Sodom and Gomorrah” where it was legal for pedophiles to abuse children and attack religious parents who protected their children.  It is said that Obama fears Christians, hunters, and military veterans more than ISIS.   It is another libtard reaction just like Ruby Ridge and Wako all over, only worse.
 
NJ Governor Christie, according to The Record newspaper of New Jersey, said referring to Hilary’s idea that immigrants, legal or not, should be allowed to vote, “My sense is that she (Hillary Clinton) just wants an opportunity to commit greater acts of voter fraud around the country.”  The FBI still has not yet opened a public investigation into Hillary’s missing documents and all the unrecorded contributions to the Clinton charity from foreign governments and the corrupt Soccer Federation.  But that does not mean that an investigation is not going on.  The corrupt Obama administration has already used the IRS and FEMA to attack its critics.  If they also use the FBI it will be the end of the American democracy and the USA will look a little more like the banana republics of Cuba and Venezuela. 
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Monday, June 1, 2015

June 5, 2015 There has been enormous erosion of US productivity this year. Non-farm Q1 productivity was just revised down to -3.1% from the first estimate of -1.9%. Q1 Labor Costs were revised up again to 6.7% from the last estimate of a whopping 5.0% increase. Housing sales are about to decline because the filings for mortgages has just declined another 7.6%. The stock marked has been stagnated in a narrow range for six months and downside breakouts appear to be starting now in several sectors. The energy glut is growing because the world’s economies are stalling even as oil/gas drilling in the USA is declining. Oil prices have declined during every American recession since the Great Depression because economic activity shuts down. The situation in Europe, China, and Russia is even worse than in the “Free World”.

            Japan’s economy has been crippled by Quantitative Easing since 1990.  The FED’s use of addictive crippling QE was a gigantic socialist economic mistake.  Capitalism can work things out but Clinton’s corrupt crony capitalism and Obama’s socialism can only sink our economy.   The EU is foolish for starting QE.  Ten years ago the USA had Capitalism, Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Now the USA has Obama crappy-care but no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash. 
            June 4, 2015   Wal-Mart's U.S. sales and employee moral is now declining.  In response to complaints from workers and shoppers they are raising the temperature in the frozen food section so people no longer see their breath and they are allowing the employees to wear warmer clothes.   But American communities are becoming educated now about WMT monopoly tactics and un-democratic priorities.  When WMT and rotten AAPL said they would use their size and power to crush religious organizations that refuse to support NAMBLA objectives in schools, scouts, and church clergy, Americans suddenly woke up to what the lazy, overpaid, incompetent CEOs in large monopolistic companies are doing after buying out, merging out, or driving out competition.  The Merged companies are run by demagogic moral moron CEOs that are taking the country to an economic and moral precipice.   I would avoid the following companies and boycott them because their CEO’s have attacked the US Constitution’s Bill of Rights and called for a boycott against states that allow people to express religious opposition to NAMBLA objectives.  The CEO’s of these companies should be fired for wasting stockholder paid time supporting NAMBLA objectives.  The best way would be for everyone to boycott these companies not the US communities that those company CEOs said they would boycott.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the morally corrupt.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike want parents and churches constitutional rights restricted when it comes to protecting their children.   That was the law in both “Sodom and Gomorrah” where legally children were regularly abused.
            Nike is now entangled in the FBI’s FIFA bribery probe.  It is every American person’s and association’s right to protect children from pedophiles and groups like NAMBLA that would give children of age 8 or 12 the legal right to chose to be sexually abused.   Parents would lose their rights to raise their own children.  Hillary Clinton is the only candidate for president that has supported NAMBLA’s lowered age for children’s sexual rights in the past.  She also wrote a book supporting the fatherless tribal system over two parent families the system that produces academic failure and poverty in the world.
            June 4, 2015    The stock market continues to flounder like a fish out of water gasping for breath.  That is the best way to describe the market action now when even the NASDAQ is topping out with dying leaps and diminishing volatility.  Wall Street reported that revenue for energy corporations has been plunging as OPEC remains determined to stop fracking by driving them out of business.  In the mean time all energy prices plummet adding to the dangerous deflation which takes away the incentive to invest and instead is starting to cause the hording of US currency which raises the value of the dollar and drops energy prices faster in terms of the dollar.  That then causes European, Chinese, and Japanese products to be cheaper in America hurting the American economy and stalling job growth.   Whenever oil hits a new low the empty tanker fleets see that as an opportunity to store cheap oil for later sales.  So far, OPEC has not blinked and oil prices are expected to make new lows as the oil glut increases and the filling of the tanker fleets promises to keep prices low until winter demand rises.
            Bill De Blasio was shown on TV this week saying that government not private enterprise creates wealth and pointed to FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower who he said revived America with terrific World War II rearmament, the Korean War, and the cold war R&D.   He said that heavy government hand is what got and kept the economy going.  Bill De Blasio obviously thinks the escalating war on NYC streets is an excellent stimulant for the NY City economy.  He definitely belongs in the stupid party.  The NYC police force and most the NYC citizens will cheer when Bill is gone after the next election. 
The MBA Mortgage Index 05/30 fell -7.6% after falling -1.6% last month.  When mortgages decline it means housing sales will decline next.
            The U.S. and world economies are slowing down according to the OECD.  The OECD just slashed its U.S. 2015 growth projection again this time from 3.1% to 2%.  That is lower than last year's 2.4% GDP.  The GDP already shrank and went negative in the first quarter on a seasonally corrected basis.
            The service sector measure of production and business activity dipped to 59.5 from 61.8. Their index of new orders, which indicates future activity, declined to 57.9 from 59.2. Furthermore the employment index slipped to 55.3 from 56.7, raising concerns Friday's poor employment report was too optimistic. The service sector makes up about 80% of the economy.
 
June 3, 2015    Automobile sales are down but light truck and four wheel drive gas guzzlers are selling well due to lower gasoline prices.  There is no new car sales boon going on though the CNBC/PRAVDA seems to think there is.  See the facts for yourself.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
            Back in October we had a sell signal with our cash flow index for the broad NYSE.  But the special indices of favored growth stocks typically peak six or more months later.   We said we thought the end of the bull market probably would be recognized by some investors in early 2015 and by most investors in the summer 2015, and finally that Jim Cramer would probably chime in with “SELL! SELL! SELL!” in October or November 2015 when the market is already 20% to 30% off its high.  We estimated that the bottom would be 60% to 90% off the high and would be reached in early 2016.  In our opinion… our opinion is still on track.  It is almost time to say we have climbed to the top of the wall of worry/anxiety with NASDAQ and Russell and the STD & Poors.   We are now near the top of a breath taking roller coaster ride.
            We have probably the most incompetent, corrupt, and suicidal government in American history and now probably the second most corrupt and incompetent candidate for president in American history.
            Obama’s fiasco with solar energy was an early controversy that gave environmentalists a black eye and took all the air out of environmentalist efforts.  Early in his administration, Solyndra was a phony shell startup solar power company in California which the state California Democrats Party had invested in.  It then received substantial Obama Federal funding, outsourced most of its work to China, and finally suspiciously went under with only the US government losing its American taxpayer money.   That Obama shell company failure/corruption was thought to be a scandal of epic proportions but nothing compared to what has followed with one international disaster after another.   In each failure Obama made America and the good causes of Americans look stupid.  His party is now known to be incompetent, corrupt, and stupid due to both Obama and Hillary.  But the pedophiles and US Army haters love and support Obama and now openly attack the Constitution’s first and second amendments.  Ruby Ridge was a Clinton administration government hit on an American Veteran after he was set up when he was asked to make a sawed off shotgun. 
            Clinton was the first president to ever attack and contest charitable contributions to Churches and attacked the use of American’s free speech in churches.   The Clintons are the reason state and federal regulators closely monitor everything American churches do today from picnics to charitable giving.   Christians and retired soldiers are what the Clintons considered to be criminals and extremists.  Now the Clinton charity is the most corrupt political organization and family run money laundering corporation in history and apparently immune to FBI scrutiny.   Instead a retired Senator was just scandalized because he withdrew money in units of less than $10,000 to pay a blackmailer.  Yet nobody in this administration wants to look at the illegal blackmail or exposes the apparent teacher-child activities which the blackmail payments covered up.  That would upset NAMBLA and the CEO’s of several American companies who attack the American bill of rights.
            When Obama’s stupid party controlled both houses of Congress they did absolutely nothing for two years except create American Socialized Medicine with their lame duck Democrat Congress between their defeat in Nov of 2010 and when their stupid party Congress was put out on the street January 1, 2011.   They had the opportunity to improve the country’s infrastructure for energy and roads but all they did was lie to Americans about the cost of social medicine because they said Americans are too stupid to accept the cost of unlimited wealth redistribution to 40 million indigent people who already get free welfare, free cell phones, and ostentatiously use taxpayer money for gambling when cashing in their welfare checks at casinos.  Indigents also now get an IRS tax rebate of about $9000 each without paying taxes.  Koskinen said "Tax refund fraud exploded between 2010 and 2012" due to Obama administration enabled fraud and it's only gotten worse since then. Between 2011 and 2014, the IRS spotted $63 billion worth of fraudulent tax refunds. But the IRS paid identity thieves $5.2 billion in 2011 alone.  A half witted crime syndicate now regularly uses the incompetently run IRS run website to steal personal financial information on tax forms of 104,000 American’s this year.  That information can now be used to steal much more.   Obama-Clinton supporters blamed Republicans for the do-nothing Democrat stupid-party controlled Congress they were had in 2008 and for their phenomenal record of national and international stupidity, incompetence and corruption under both Obama and Hillary.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/02/technology/irs-hackers/
            June 2, 2015  This bubble has been driven by anxiety not exuberance as former stock market bubbles.   Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said the U.S. Federal Reserve should consider lifting interest rates sooner rather than later to deflate speculative bubbles in the housing and stock markets like we have today.   The first quarter the US economy sank 0.7%.  Another quarter like that will mean that a second Obama recession has started.  Nobel laureate Robert Shiller said U.S. equities now look expensive by any number of measures and that they are clear signs of a stock market bubble. For a start he said the typical stock in the S&P 500 now trades at 18.1 times forward earnings, which ranks in the highest 2% percentile of historical stock market bubbles since 1976.  The median PE expansion was 48 percent during the nine previous stock market bubbles but this bubble is already up 64%, almost 50% higher than the average bubble.  Shiller points out that the stock markets are sitting at levels not seen since 2000 when the Clinton dot-com bubble broke.  One of the indicators Shiller uses is based on a question that he has periodically asked individual and institutional investors, "Do you think the stock market is overvalued, undervalued, or about right?"  He found confidence of proper valuation has also reached its lowest point for individual investors since the stock market peaked in 2000. He said that is another source of concern and a symptom of a bubble.  When asked how worried he is about the prospects for the market over the next six months, Shiller said that his concern has risen that there could be a correction within the year.  He advised people to save more and diversify their investments because their portfolios probably won't do as well as they had hoped.
            Jim Cramer said, “Stock market bubble? What, me worry?”  Mad Money’s Jim Cramer should be on the cover of “Mad Magazine.”
            The corruption of the Clinton Organization is at least ten times the corruption of world soccer organization according to the lead article on the WSJ Opinion Page today.  The fact that the “Stupid Party” even considers Hilary to be a candidate shows either the corruption, the stupidity, or both corruption and stupidity level of “Stupid Party voters.”
            Bomb threats on US flights are reaching saturation levels and 90 % of potential bombs were not caught by the TSA during tests.  The TSA director is being replaced.  Crying wolf is a technique used to cloak real bomb threats.  American flights may now be actually targeted by terrorists throwing up this smoke screen to wear down the TSA guard.
            June 1, 2015  Manufacturing activity slowed and demand in May showed no sign of improvement across Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, South and North America.  The failed economically addictive Quantitative Easing tried by Japan on and off since 1990 has never worked other to create temporary stock market wealth.  Japan’s stock market peaked in 1990 with QE and has never approached that level again.  Today’s Nikkei high in Japan is about half of what was the high 25 years ago.  That implies we may have to wait 25 years to see our current highs again.  Japan was the test case for QE and any intelligent economists would have determined how to make it actually work before applying it in America.  Once America tried the poison the rest of the world thought it must be OK.  But this American President and FED seem to be incompetent enough to try anything.  QE is a temporary pain killer that leaves the patient paralyzed.  Pain makes gain is the principle of building a strong human body, a savings account, or a strong economy.   Lazy students who don’t exercise or study take the easy road of unemployment and poverty.  There is no easy road to a strong body, mind, or economy.  The easy road is the universal “stupid party” road which is the path ignorant barbarians, communists, thieves, primitive tribes, and National and International Socialists take to redistribute wealth from others to themselves and their power base.  
            Government corruption through influence peddling and favors is source of all the money going for Clinton speeches and family charities of politicians.  That charity money comes from taxpayers alone which corrupt politicians help divert through the businessmen, thieves, and demagogues who profit from the influence peddling.  Obama and the FED have put America on the road to nowhere. 
            GDP - Second Estimate Q1 was -0.7%
            Chicago PMI May fell to 46.2 from 52.3.  It is an important national survey and below the 50 breakeven is considered economic contraction.  Two GDP declining quarters in a row is the definition of a recession.
            Obama figures for personal income and spending make little sense again.  Obama’s forced transition of the labor force to part-time jobs from steady full time skilled jobs is continuing to kill personal income.  Medical costs are continuing to rise even as hospitals and doctors continue to close their doors.
            You can see that Manufacturing orders continue stagnant if you look at the chart, but the ABC TV network stupid party news said it is accelerating and Google published it as if it were true.  If consumer spending is down why would stores be ordering more thus raising manufacturing?  Stupid party economics makes no sense because they are clueless about economics.   They want only good news reported even if their phony data makes no sense.
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm
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