Monday, June 1, 2015

June 5, 2015 There has been enormous erosion of US productivity this year. Non-farm Q1 productivity was just revised down to -3.1% from the first estimate of -1.9%. Q1 Labor Costs were revised up again to 6.7% from the last estimate of a whopping 5.0% increase. Housing sales are about to decline because the filings for mortgages has just declined another 7.6%. The stock marked has been stagnated in a narrow range for six months and downside breakouts appear to be starting now in several sectors. The energy glut is growing because the world’s economies are stalling even as oil/gas drilling in the USA is declining. Oil prices have declined during every American recession since the Great Depression because economic activity shuts down. The situation in Europe, China, and Russia is even worse than in the “Free World”.

            Japan’s economy has been crippled by Quantitative Easing since 1990.  The FED’s use of addictive crippling QE was a gigantic socialist economic mistake.  Capitalism can work things out but Clinton’s corrupt crony capitalism and Obama’s socialism can only sink our economy.   The EU is foolish for starting QE.  Ten years ago the USA had Capitalism, Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Now the USA has Obama crappy-care but no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash. 
            June 4, 2015   Wal-Mart's U.S. sales and employee moral is now declining.  In response to complaints from workers and shoppers they are raising the temperature in the frozen food section so people no longer see their breath and they are allowing the employees to wear warmer clothes.   But American communities are becoming educated now about WMT monopoly tactics and un-democratic priorities.  When WMT and rotten AAPL said they would use their size and power to crush religious organizations that refuse to support NAMBLA objectives in schools, scouts, and church clergy, Americans suddenly woke up to what the lazy, overpaid, incompetent CEOs in large monopolistic companies are doing after buying out, merging out, or driving out competition.  The Merged companies are run by demagogic moral moron CEOs that are taking the country to an economic and moral precipice.   I would avoid the following companies and boycott them because their CEO’s have attacked the US Constitution’s Bill of Rights and called for a boycott against states that allow people to express religious opposition to NAMBLA objectives.  The CEO’s of these companies should be fired for wasting stockholder paid time supporting NAMBLA objectives.  The best way would be for everyone to boycott these companies not the US communities that those company CEOs said they would boycott.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the morally corrupt.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike want parents and churches constitutional rights restricted when it comes to protecting their children.   That was the law in both “Sodom and Gomorrah” where legally children were regularly abused.
            Nike is now entangled in the FBI’s FIFA bribery probe.  It is every American person’s and association’s right to protect children from pedophiles and groups like NAMBLA that would give children of age 8 or 12 the legal right to chose to be sexually abused.   Parents would lose their rights to raise their own children.  Hillary Clinton is the only candidate for president that has supported NAMBLA’s lowered age for children’s sexual rights in the past.  She also wrote a book supporting the fatherless tribal system over two parent families the system that produces academic failure and poverty in the world.
            June 4, 2015    The stock market continues to flounder like a fish out of water gasping for breath.  That is the best way to describe the market action now when even the NASDAQ is topping out with dying leaps and diminishing volatility.  Wall Street reported that revenue for energy corporations has been plunging as OPEC remains determined to stop fracking by driving them out of business.  In the mean time all energy prices plummet adding to the dangerous deflation which takes away the incentive to invest and instead is starting to cause the hording of US currency which raises the value of the dollar and drops energy prices faster in terms of the dollar.  That then causes European, Chinese, and Japanese products to be cheaper in America hurting the American economy and stalling job growth.   Whenever oil hits a new low the empty tanker fleets see that as an opportunity to store cheap oil for later sales.  So far, OPEC has not blinked and oil prices are expected to make new lows as the oil glut increases and the filling of the tanker fleets promises to keep prices low until winter demand rises.
            Bill De Blasio was shown on TV this week saying that government not private enterprise creates wealth and pointed to FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower who he said revived America with terrific World War II rearmament, the Korean War, and the cold war R&D.   He said that heavy government hand is what got and kept the economy going.  Bill De Blasio obviously thinks the escalating war on NYC streets is an excellent stimulant for the NY City economy.  He definitely belongs in the stupid party.  The NYC police force and most the NYC citizens will cheer when Bill is gone after the next election. 
The MBA Mortgage Index 05/30 fell -7.6% after falling -1.6% last month.  When mortgages decline it means housing sales will decline next.
            The U.S. and world economies are slowing down according to the OECD.  The OECD just slashed its U.S. 2015 growth projection again this time from 3.1% to 2%.  That is lower than last year's 2.4% GDP.  The GDP already shrank and went negative in the first quarter on a seasonally corrected basis.
            The service sector measure of production and business activity dipped to 59.5 from 61.8. Their index of new orders, which indicates future activity, declined to 57.9 from 59.2. Furthermore the employment index slipped to 55.3 from 56.7, raising concerns Friday's poor employment report was too optimistic. The service sector makes up about 80% of the economy.
 
June 3, 2015    Automobile sales are down but light truck and four wheel drive gas guzzlers are selling well due to lower gasoline prices.  There is no new car sales boon going on though the CNBC/PRAVDA seems to think there is.  See the facts for yourself.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
            Back in October we had a sell signal with our cash flow index for the broad NYSE.  But the special indices of favored growth stocks typically peak six or more months later.   We said we thought the end of the bull market probably would be recognized by some investors in early 2015 and by most investors in the summer 2015, and finally that Jim Cramer would probably chime in with “SELL! SELL! SELL!” in October or November 2015 when the market is already 20% to 30% off its high.  We estimated that the bottom would be 60% to 90% off the high and would be reached in early 2016.  In our opinion… our opinion is still on track.  It is almost time to say we have climbed to the top of the wall of worry/anxiety with NASDAQ and Russell and the STD & Poors.   We are now near the top of a breath taking roller coaster ride.
            We have probably the most incompetent, corrupt, and suicidal government in American history and now probably the second most corrupt and incompetent candidate for president in American history.
            Obama’s fiasco with solar energy was an early controversy that gave environmentalists a black eye and took all the air out of environmentalist efforts.  Early in his administration, Solyndra was a phony shell startup solar power company in California which the state California Democrats Party had invested in.  It then received substantial Obama Federal funding, outsourced most of its work to China, and finally suspiciously went under with only the US government losing its American taxpayer money.   That Obama shell company failure/corruption was thought to be a scandal of epic proportions but nothing compared to what has followed with one international disaster after another.   In each failure Obama made America and the good causes of Americans look stupid.  His party is now known to be incompetent, corrupt, and stupid due to both Obama and Hillary.  But the pedophiles and US Army haters love and support Obama and now openly attack the Constitution’s first and second amendments.  Ruby Ridge was a Clinton administration government hit on an American Veteran after he was set up when he was asked to make a sawed off shotgun. 
            Clinton was the first president to ever attack and contest charitable contributions to Churches and attacked the use of American’s free speech in churches.   The Clintons are the reason state and federal regulators closely monitor everything American churches do today from picnics to charitable giving.   Christians and retired soldiers are what the Clintons considered to be criminals and extremists.  Now the Clinton charity is the most corrupt political organization and family run money laundering corporation in history and apparently immune to FBI scrutiny.   Instead a retired Senator was just scandalized because he withdrew money in units of less than $10,000 to pay a blackmailer.  Yet nobody in this administration wants to look at the illegal blackmail or exposes the apparent teacher-child activities which the blackmail payments covered up.  That would upset NAMBLA and the CEO’s of several American companies who attack the American bill of rights.
            When Obama’s stupid party controlled both houses of Congress they did absolutely nothing for two years except create American Socialized Medicine with their lame duck Democrat Congress between their defeat in Nov of 2010 and when their stupid party Congress was put out on the street January 1, 2011.   They had the opportunity to improve the country’s infrastructure for energy and roads but all they did was lie to Americans about the cost of social medicine because they said Americans are too stupid to accept the cost of unlimited wealth redistribution to 40 million indigent people who already get free welfare, free cell phones, and ostentatiously use taxpayer money for gambling when cashing in their welfare checks at casinos.  Indigents also now get an IRS tax rebate of about $9000 each without paying taxes.  Koskinen said "Tax refund fraud exploded between 2010 and 2012" due to Obama administration enabled fraud and it's only gotten worse since then. Between 2011 and 2014, the IRS spotted $63 billion worth of fraudulent tax refunds. But the IRS paid identity thieves $5.2 billion in 2011 alone.  A half witted crime syndicate now regularly uses the incompetently run IRS run website to steal personal financial information on tax forms of 104,000 American’s this year.  That information can now be used to steal much more.   Obama-Clinton supporters blamed Republicans for the do-nothing Democrat stupid-party controlled Congress they were had in 2008 and for their phenomenal record of national and international stupidity, incompetence and corruption under both Obama and Hillary.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/02/technology/irs-hackers/
            June 2, 2015  This bubble has been driven by anxiety not exuberance as former stock market bubbles.   Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said the U.S. Federal Reserve should consider lifting interest rates sooner rather than later to deflate speculative bubbles in the housing and stock markets like we have today.   The first quarter the US economy sank 0.7%.  Another quarter like that will mean that a second Obama recession has started.  Nobel laureate Robert Shiller said U.S. equities now look expensive by any number of measures and that they are clear signs of a stock market bubble. For a start he said the typical stock in the S&P 500 now trades at 18.1 times forward earnings, which ranks in the highest 2% percentile of historical stock market bubbles since 1976.  The median PE expansion was 48 percent during the nine previous stock market bubbles but this bubble is already up 64%, almost 50% higher than the average bubble.  Shiller points out that the stock markets are sitting at levels not seen since 2000 when the Clinton dot-com bubble broke.  One of the indicators Shiller uses is based on a question that he has periodically asked individual and institutional investors, "Do you think the stock market is overvalued, undervalued, or about right?"  He found confidence of proper valuation has also reached its lowest point for individual investors since the stock market peaked in 2000. He said that is another source of concern and a symptom of a bubble.  When asked how worried he is about the prospects for the market over the next six months, Shiller said that his concern has risen that there could be a correction within the year.  He advised people to save more and diversify their investments because their portfolios probably won't do as well as they had hoped.
            Jim Cramer said, “Stock market bubble? What, me worry?”  Mad Money’s Jim Cramer should be on the cover of “Mad Magazine.”
            The corruption of the Clinton Organization is at least ten times the corruption of world soccer organization according to the lead article on the WSJ Opinion Page today.  The fact that the “Stupid Party” even considers Hilary to be a candidate shows either the corruption, the stupidity, or both corruption and stupidity level of “Stupid Party voters.”
            Bomb threats on US flights are reaching saturation levels and 90 % of potential bombs were not caught by the TSA during tests.  The TSA director is being replaced.  Crying wolf is a technique used to cloak real bomb threats.  American flights may now be actually targeted by terrorists throwing up this smoke screen to wear down the TSA guard.
            June 1, 2015  Manufacturing activity slowed and demand in May showed no sign of improvement across Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, South and North America.  The failed economically addictive Quantitative Easing tried by Japan on and off since 1990 has never worked other to create temporary stock market wealth.  Japan’s stock market peaked in 1990 with QE and has never approached that level again.  Today’s Nikkei high in Japan is about half of what was the high 25 years ago.  That implies we may have to wait 25 years to see our current highs again.  Japan was the test case for QE and any intelligent economists would have determined how to make it actually work before applying it in America.  Once America tried the poison the rest of the world thought it must be OK.  But this American President and FED seem to be incompetent enough to try anything.  QE is a temporary pain killer that leaves the patient paralyzed.  Pain makes gain is the principle of building a strong human body, a savings account, or a strong economy.   Lazy students who don’t exercise or study take the easy road of unemployment and poverty.  There is no easy road to a strong body, mind, or economy.  The easy road is the universal “stupid party” road which is the path ignorant barbarians, communists, thieves, primitive tribes, and National and International Socialists take to redistribute wealth from others to themselves and their power base.  
            Government corruption through influence peddling and favors is source of all the money going for Clinton speeches and family charities of politicians.  That charity money comes from taxpayers alone which corrupt politicians help divert through the businessmen, thieves, and demagogues who profit from the influence peddling.  Obama and the FED have put America on the road to nowhere. 
            GDP - Second Estimate Q1 was -0.7%
            Chicago PMI May fell to 46.2 from 52.3.  It is an important national survey and below the 50 breakeven is considered economic contraction.  Two GDP declining quarters in a row is the definition of a recession.
            Obama figures for personal income and spending make little sense again.  Obama’s forced transition of the labor force to part-time jobs from steady full time skilled jobs is continuing to kill personal income.  Medical costs are continuing to rise even as hospitals and doctors continue to close their doors.
            You can see that Manufacturing orders continue stagnant if you look at the chart, but the ABC TV network stupid party news said it is accelerating and Google published it as if it were true.  If consumer spending is down why would stores be ordering more thus raising manufacturing?  Stupid party economics makes no sense because they are clueless about economics.   They want only good news reported even if their phony data makes no sense.
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm
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