Sunday, June 7, 2015

June 12, 2015 Today the WSJ repeated the error of CNBC missing the fact that retail sales are a one year change not a monthly change. 1.2% increase in sales from last year is dismal not fantastic as the WSJ and CNBC said. That kind of ignorant reporting is a factor in why the second Obama recession could be the Obama Depression. The Stupid Party does not fix problems it spins them and falsely reports them as successes. They are rotting out the economic and moral character of America with illegal spying on Americans and dirty IRS tricks on Christian, historical, business, and certain political groups and individuals. It is far more widespread than reported. Democrat state governments were coordinated by the Executive Branch to illegally harass and persecute political targets. Not only the IRS targeted people, but democrat state treasurers voted their state pension plan stocks to harass corporate executives (i.e. a CEO of Bank of America) that disagreed with Obama’s policies. And some state agencies harassed the same people and groups that the IRS targeted. The corruption of American democracy has been organized and quite extensive with this administration. It is our opinion that the executives of the following companies are now part of the organized political and moral corruption of the Obama administration and probably cleared their recent attack on American Religious freedom with the Obama Administration: Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike. Their CEO’s deceive themselves into thinking they are Gods gift to America and their stock holders need to wake up and clean up before their companies rapidly deteriorate. We would not touch their stocks at this time based on the corruption implicit in their collusion with the current corrupt manipulative administration. 30,000 Mexicans died with “Fast and Furious” which was an Obama-Holder plan to blame American hunters and veterans for the gun running deaths. Thousands of Americans were illegally harassed and audited by Obama/Holder’s IRS because they had Christian, moral, and patriotic beliefs. Now private industry CEO’s coincidentally joined in a coordinated attack on the very same people Obama-Holder targeted.

 
While being interviewed in February, Buffett indicated that the last asset he would want to buy is the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. When pushed further on the issue, he then expressed his conviction about this by saying that he wouldn’t even want to own a 10-day Treasury bond (if one should exist).  Indeed the US and German Treasuries have begun to be hit indicating that Quantitative Easing is now taking its toll on perceived credit risks.  He also said dubious maneuvers are used to manufacture rising per-share earnings, particularly if these acrobatics produce mergers that generate huge fees for investment bankers.”  At one point in his March letter to shareholders, Mr. Buffett argued: “Investment bankers, being paid as they are for action, constantly urge acquirers to pay 20 percent to 50 percent premiums over market price for publicly held businesses. The bankers tell the buyer that the premium is justified for ‘control value’ and for the wonderful things that are going to happen once the acquirer’s C.E.O. takes charge.”  Those premiums were baked into the stock prices and eventually the IPO values will collapse.  Fraud and fluff now could make up more than 50% of current stock prices.  We are now seeing all the indices beginning to roll over and lose altitude.
Inventories grew again as sales did not approach production levels.
June 11, 2015  Today the ignorance displayed on CNBC about the economy hit a new low.  Retail sales were year over year up a pitiful 1.2% including autos and yet the street said it showed a strengthening recovery.  See for yourself the truth.   The market experts got it wrong.  The 1.2% was the change from one year ago not one month ago and it is horrible.  It has fallen into the region that it was in  at the beginning of the recession in 2008.  It is in extremely pessimistic territory.
 
Russia is now contracting at a rate of -2.5% according to the World Bank and has critically low liquidity.  Yet Russia indexed ETF’s are near record highs.  It looks like there has been extensive manipulation of American ETFs.  Worldwide liquidity is very low and money is beginning to flee countries like the USA and Germany that have stock market bubbles.  Germany has seen a recent extensive stock market pullback and the USA has now seen multiple stock market sell signals.  For the first time in seven years several analysts are joining us warning that the market has topped out.
 
The number of zombie housing foreclosures is suddenly increasing as banks sense that the economy and home prices have peaked and a worldwide economic crisis could be coming soon.  They want to get out at the top even if they have to take a loss because prices could be 25% lower before the economy settles.  Banks were avoiding foreclosing on the houses until the losses could be managed.  But billions of unrecognized loses may soon begin to show up on the bank’s books.   It represents up to 25% of houses for sale in many areas.
 
Yesterday, none of the major American indices we follow on a cash flow basis were able to rise to their lower trend line so they are all still sell signals.  On a price basis only the NASDAQ rose to the lower trend line but on no increase in volume and it did not break through.  Therefore they all remain sell signals as well.   The DJRails and DJUtilities which we also checked both gave sell signals but to give an official Dow sell signal the DJIndustrials index needs to fall below 17635.  That is 365 points or just 2%  lower.  We estimate that a stock market crash could happen as soon as this week or as late as December.   Last October, and ever since then we said our broader market cash flow index gave a sell signal.  Also the technology and growth stock indices have on a cash flow basis given recent sell signals and all the indices are starting to give sell signals on a plain vanilla price basis.  We said that could come as early as early as summer but that Jim Cramer probably would not say sell, sell, sell in a panic again until the market is down at least 20%.  That could be as late as October/November, but investors who read our blog probably will be in cash or gold.  When the panic begins sales and production will drop and energy prices will plummet in anticipation of inventory buildup.
 
Bond values are now beginning to collapse because the economy is taking control away from the Federal Reserve.  The economy is leveraged to the eyeballs and default risk is beginning to rise driving up long and shorter term interest rates.  A Fed rate rise will soon be nothing more than an attempt to pretend the Fed still has any control.  The FED and banks are now losing control of the economy.  They are now pushing on a string.
 
Obama promises to send in 450 more American soldiers to defeat the 15,000 to 30,000 ISIS savages.  How about a little more fire power Obama?  How about night time B52 saturation bombing of selected areas ISIS controls whenever we see them congregating or burning people alive?   How about targeting every ISIS controlled city with single bombs two or three times every night at random hours to deprive them of sleep?
 
There is perhaps 3 to 5 cents cash available for every dollar of debt.  That means if the internet goes down or there is a run on the banks there will be hungry people, riots and social breakdown.   This may be a good time to withdraw some cash.   You are getting nothing for it anyway in the banks.  If you withdraw less than $10,000 the FBI may investigate you for trying to trick them but if you take out more they may investigate you for drug dealing.  If you are a Republican you may have to go broke fighting against Obama’s corruption and harassment in court.
 
June 10, 2015  On page A15 of today’s WSJ Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman explained the coming financial crisis pretty much as we did on June 8.  He makes the point that the Obama regulations may make things worse by adding to the current administration confusion.  “politicians and regulators constructed an expansive and untested regulatory framework that will have unintended consequences for liquidity in our financial system.”   JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has gone as far as to say that Wall Street is “under assault” now from regulators.   Economist Nouriel Roubini, who like us correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, recently made similar comments.
            Testla’s newest proposed selling features are red herrings.  Only the dolts of the world are interested in buying self driving cars that kill you accidentally when the automated driving features fail at high speed.  And when those failures occur Tesla will be sued out of existence.   Look how a defective simple ignition switch has destroyed GM.  Obama appointed the GM CEOs who hid the faults.   Europeans think the fun of driving the car is the main reason for having a car and they have built a much safer high speed mass transit for everyone who is just interested in getting from A to B.   Testla has captivated all the confused global warming worshipers who are simultaneously the mass transit haters of the world.   But if you believed in global warming and had a functioning brain you would believe in mass transit too, not a Tesla substitute.  Eventually Tesla buyers will be stigmatized and called cult followers.   Pope Francis has ordered the establishment of a special court to try bishops who mishandled cases of clerical pedophile sex abuse.   We need a similar court to head off a resurgence of NAMBLA in America.  The following companies might be considered commercialized cults with CEO cult followings that don’t understand true value;  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, Nike, and the Moonies.  When CEO’s get lucky and deceive themselves into thinking they are Greek oracles and have god-like powers they also seem to attack American freedoms and the America’s Founding Fathers who gave Americans the freedom to be everything Americans are willing to work hard at to be.  At the top of the hill cult leaders lose their powers.  Nike succeeded once more in cutting out competitors from FIFA advertising.
 
Former Congressman Hastert is a Republican homosexual who is being harassed by the leftists because he is a Republican and for no other reason.  The FBI and the leftist press are not prosecuting the person who was blackmailing Hastert for decades.  Instead this corrupt Obama administration is persecuting Congressman Hastert because he withdrew money to pay the blackmail in withdrawal amounts of less than $10000.  Obama’s administration contends that only Drug traffickers do that to avoid detection.   Hastert was blackmailed and was not dealing drugs so naturally Hastert has pleaded he is innocent.  This Obama administration is sick, sick, sick persecuting and humiliating a blackmailed gay Congressman just because he is not a Democrat, a left wing extremist, or a member of NAMBLA.  Where are the CEO’s of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, Nike when a fellow homosexual is persecuted by leftists?   Persecution is several levels worse than discrimination and the fact that the CEO’s of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike have no compassion for Congressman Hastert shows the CEO’s are very shallow.  These CEO’s and the Obama administration will be seen as pretty sick puppies if they do not stop the persecution of good Americans.
 
June 9, 2015  JOLTS - Job Openings Apr were 5.367M up from 4.994M indicating there is a growing shortage of qualified employees to fill American jobs.  This is a new symptom of growing social media and the Apple equipped students who play games and text in class and then drop out of Community College broke having learned nothing.   Job openings hit new highs because student competence is hitting new lows.  A survey of 128 CEOs between April 22 and May 13 found that top corporate leaders expect the economy to grow at 2.5% in 2015, down from 2.8% projected growth from the first quarter of 2015.  Just 34% of CEOs now plan to hire more U.S. employees this year due to the scarcity of people with the necessary job skills and work ethic.
            Rising interest rates are beginning to cause Bond portfolio’s to drop in value.  That will give temporary strength to stocks as people leave bonds.  But it is wealth destruction.  The wealth destruction is now in both stocks and bonds.  Eventually panic will ensue and people will diversify and many more may go into cash.
            Wholesale Inventories in Apr rose 0.4% indicating sales were lower than expected again.   Tesla and Apple are probably the two most overweigh companies at this time.  Since Steve Jobs died Apple has run out of good ideas.  Tesla and GM will likely go bankrupt within two years or be bought out by new management because they are going nowhere.  Apple products have no protected technology or patent value of significance as its products are used primarily to entertain children and the under employed.   And the young people who most use Apple products tend to drop out and become unemployable.  But for $10 per month students can now stream Apple music to listen to during General Math and General Science classes.  They are the Apple “don’t want no education generation!
 
June 8, 2015 We are now in danger of a second Great Depression.  Reserve requirements are the amount of funds that a depository institution must hold in reserve against specified deposit liabilities. Depository institutions must hold reserves in the form of vault cash or deposits with Federal Reserve Banks.   As of this January 22, the requirement has been:
            For more than $14.5 million up to $103.6 million, 3% must be held to defend a run on the FED.  This allows money in those quantities can be loaned out 33.3 times or (1/0.03) times the actual money held.
            For more than $103.6 million, 10% must be held to defend a run on the FED.  This allows that money to be loaned out 10 times (1/0.10) the actual money held.
            At the time of the Great Depression the rate was about 5% which meant there was 20 times more money loaned out than cash to back it up.   You can see that on smaller loans of under $103.6 million we are in a more dangerous position than at the start of the FDR’s Great Depression.  On large international loans we don’t have data from the Great Depression.   Herbert Hover had a recession about as bad as Obama’s, but socialist FDR was the one that then had the 90% stock market collapse and the Great Depression that lasted 1933 to  the end of WWII in 1945.  The “stupid party” never tells the truth about how they caused the Great Depression.  If Obama sets off a second Great Depression you can be 100% sure the incompetent and corrupt “stupid party” will blame the former president George Bush or something else.  We have veritable corrupt fools running the executive branch today.  What this all means is that if you consider most of the money awash in the stock market today, if there is a run on the banks like in 1933 then for every 33.3 dollars invested by citizens, about $1 would be paid out by the banks.  Anything more would be from printing new money and would be potentially hyperinflationary.  You can bet that Jim Cramer and all the other ignorant commentators on CNBC don’t understand that only roughly 3% to at most 10% of the stock price is based on real cash and the rest (90% to 97%) is borrowed money leveraged up.  And if they don’t know… then you can also bet the Obama administration is completely clueless.   Leverage was the cause of the collapse of the fraudulent Obama-Dodd-Frank American Liar Loan mortgages, and that triggered the collapse of securitized derivatives based on the liar mortgage fraud and brought down the American economy in 2008.
            If the DJI is peaking as it appears to be, then it will set off a major DOW sell signal, the signal that made the WSJ famous.  The Dow Rails have already given a major sell signal and it would not take much of drop in the DJI to give the major Dow Theory stock market sell signal.  As we pointed out only the NASDAQ shows any strength.
 
June 7 CBS 60 Minutes program showed how FEMA under Obama’s “stupid party” management engaged in fraud to cheat many non-Democrat homeowners who’s houses were destroyed by the storm Sandy.  But FEMA had insurance adjusters lie and claim the damage was mostly from old age to cheat the homeowners.  Most of the fraud was in “stupid party” controlled NY not in New Jersey.   Obama’s administration apparently illegally uses the IRS, FEMA and other government bureaucracies to target and discriminate against groups that think the Obama administration is corrupt and incompetent.
            The DJI, NYSE, S & P, and Russell 2000 have all given trend line breakout sell signals Friday but the NASDAQ is still testing its lower trend line.  That is a symptom of a correction coming.
            A Reuters survey of the top 100 retailers shows that of the 98 that sell in physical retail stores, fewer than 25% accept Apple Pay and 66% said they won’t be adding Apple’s mobile anytime soon.  Only four said they might add it next year.   Apple can hardly give away their ugly clumsy watches. 
            Christians, hunters, and military veterans and their families have become disenchanted with libtard CEO’s opposing the Constitution’s Bill of Rights that give Americans the religious freedom to boycott and oppose the tenants of NAMBLA on religious grounds and even boycott such groups and companies that support church leaders that prey on children.  In fact Libtard CEO’s and others might soon demand that the church can not discriminate against or defrock pedophiles who infiltrate the church… and Libtards may even call it illegal discrimination.  That is why Christians, hunters, and military veterans and their families have become disenchanted with those Libtard CEO’s who attack the Constitutions Bill of Rights.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the corrupt.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike support CEOs who want the constitutional religious rights of parents and churches restricted.   That was what it was like in both “Sodom and Gomorrah” where it was legal for pedophiles to abuse children and attack religious parents who protected their children.  It is said that Obama fears Christians, hunters, and military veterans more than ISIS.   It is another libtard reaction just like Ruby Ridge and Wako all over, only worse.
 
NJ Governor Christie, according to The Record newspaper of New Jersey, said referring to Hilary’s idea that immigrants, legal or not, should be allowed to vote, “My sense is that she (Hillary Clinton) just wants an opportunity to commit greater acts of voter fraud around the country.”  The FBI still has not yet opened a public investigation into Hillary’s missing documents and all the unrecorded contributions to the Clinton charity from foreign governments and the corrupt Soccer Federation.  But that does not mean that an investigation is not going on.  The corrupt Obama administration has already used the IRS and FEMA to attack its critics.  If they also use the FBI it will be the end of the American democracy and the USA will look a little more like the banana republics of Cuba and Venezuela. 
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Monday, June 1, 2015

June 5, 2015 There has been enormous erosion of US productivity this year. Non-farm Q1 productivity was just revised down to -3.1% from the first estimate of -1.9%. Q1 Labor Costs were revised up again to 6.7% from the last estimate of a whopping 5.0% increase. Housing sales are about to decline because the filings for mortgages has just declined another 7.6%. The stock marked has been stagnated in a narrow range for six months and downside breakouts appear to be starting now in several sectors. The energy glut is growing because the world’s economies are stalling even as oil/gas drilling in the USA is declining. Oil prices have declined during every American recession since the Great Depression because economic activity shuts down. The situation in Europe, China, and Russia is even worse than in the “Free World”.

            Japan’s economy has been crippled by Quantitative Easing since 1990.  The FED’s use of addictive crippling QE was a gigantic socialist economic mistake.  Capitalism can work things out but Clinton’s corrupt crony capitalism and Obama’s socialism can only sink our economy.   The EU is foolish for starting QE.  Ten years ago the USA had Capitalism, Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Now the USA has Obama crappy-care but no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash. 
            June 4, 2015   Wal-Mart's U.S. sales and employee moral is now declining.  In response to complaints from workers and shoppers they are raising the temperature in the frozen food section so people no longer see their breath and they are allowing the employees to wear warmer clothes.   But American communities are becoming educated now about WMT monopoly tactics and un-democratic priorities.  When WMT and rotten AAPL said they would use their size and power to crush religious organizations that refuse to support NAMBLA objectives in schools, scouts, and church clergy, Americans suddenly woke up to what the lazy, overpaid, incompetent CEOs in large monopolistic companies are doing after buying out, merging out, or driving out competition.  The Merged companies are run by demagogic moral moron CEOs that are taking the country to an economic and moral precipice.   I would avoid the following companies and boycott them because their CEO’s have attacked the US Constitution’s Bill of Rights and called for a boycott against states that allow people to express religious opposition to NAMBLA objectives.  The CEO’s of these companies should be fired for wasting stockholder paid time supporting NAMBLA objectives.  The best way would be for everyone to boycott these companies not the US communities that those company CEOs said they would boycott.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the morally corrupt.  Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike want parents and churches constitutional rights restricted when it comes to protecting their children.   That was the law in both “Sodom and Gomorrah” where legally children were regularly abused.
            Nike is now entangled in the FBI’s FIFA bribery probe.  It is every American person’s and association’s right to protect children from pedophiles and groups like NAMBLA that would give children of age 8 or 12 the legal right to chose to be sexually abused.   Parents would lose their rights to raise their own children.  Hillary Clinton is the only candidate for president that has supported NAMBLA’s lowered age for children’s sexual rights in the past.  She also wrote a book supporting the fatherless tribal system over two parent families the system that produces academic failure and poverty in the world.
            June 4, 2015    The stock market continues to flounder like a fish out of water gasping for breath.  That is the best way to describe the market action now when even the NASDAQ is topping out with dying leaps and diminishing volatility.  Wall Street reported that revenue for energy corporations has been plunging as OPEC remains determined to stop fracking by driving them out of business.  In the mean time all energy prices plummet adding to the dangerous deflation which takes away the incentive to invest and instead is starting to cause the hording of US currency which raises the value of the dollar and drops energy prices faster in terms of the dollar.  That then causes European, Chinese, and Japanese products to be cheaper in America hurting the American economy and stalling job growth.   Whenever oil hits a new low the empty tanker fleets see that as an opportunity to store cheap oil for later sales.  So far, OPEC has not blinked and oil prices are expected to make new lows as the oil glut increases and the filling of the tanker fleets promises to keep prices low until winter demand rises.
            Bill De Blasio was shown on TV this week saying that government not private enterprise creates wealth and pointed to FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower who he said revived America with terrific World War II rearmament, the Korean War, and the cold war R&D.   He said that heavy government hand is what got and kept the economy going.  Bill De Blasio obviously thinks the escalating war on NYC streets is an excellent stimulant for the NY City economy.  He definitely belongs in the stupid party.  The NYC police force and most the NYC citizens will cheer when Bill is gone after the next election. 
The MBA Mortgage Index 05/30 fell -7.6% after falling -1.6% last month.  When mortgages decline it means housing sales will decline next.
            The U.S. and world economies are slowing down according to the OECD.  The OECD just slashed its U.S. 2015 growth projection again this time from 3.1% to 2%.  That is lower than last year's 2.4% GDP.  The GDP already shrank and went negative in the first quarter on a seasonally corrected basis.
            The service sector measure of production and business activity dipped to 59.5 from 61.8. Their index of new orders, which indicates future activity, declined to 57.9 from 59.2. Furthermore the employment index slipped to 55.3 from 56.7, raising concerns Friday's poor employment report was too optimistic. The service sector makes up about 80% of the economy.
 
June 3, 2015    Automobile sales are down but light truck and four wheel drive gas guzzlers are selling well due to lower gasoline prices.  There is no new car sales boon going on though the CNBC/PRAVDA seems to think there is.  See the facts for yourself.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
            Back in October we had a sell signal with our cash flow index for the broad NYSE.  But the special indices of favored growth stocks typically peak six or more months later.   We said we thought the end of the bull market probably would be recognized by some investors in early 2015 and by most investors in the summer 2015, and finally that Jim Cramer would probably chime in with “SELL! SELL! SELL!” in October or November 2015 when the market is already 20% to 30% off its high.  We estimated that the bottom would be 60% to 90% off the high and would be reached in early 2016.  In our opinion… our opinion is still on track.  It is almost time to say we have climbed to the top of the wall of worry/anxiety with NASDAQ and Russell and the STD & Poors.   We are now near the top of a breath taking roller coaster ride.
            We have probably the most incompetent, corrupt, and suicidal government in American history and now probably the second most corrupt and incompetent candidate for president in American history.
            Obama’s fiasco with solar energy was an early controversy that gave environmentalists a black eye and took all the air out of environmentalist efforts.  Early in his administration, Solyndra was a phony shell startup solar power company in California which the state California Democrats Party had invested in.  It then received substantial Obama Federal funding, outsourced most of its work to China, and finally suspiciously went under with only the US government losing its American taxpayer money.   That Obama shell company failure/corruption was thought to be a scandal of epic proportions but nothing compared to what has followed with one international disaster after another.   In each failure Obama made America and the good causes of Americans look stupid.  His party is now known to be incompetent, corrupt, and stupid due to both Obama and Hillary.  But the pedophiles and US Army haters love and support Obama and now openly attack the Constitution’s first and second amendments.  Ruby Ridge was a Clinton administration government hit on an American Veteran after he was set up when he was asked to make a sawed off shotgun. 
            Clinton was the first president to ever attack and contest charitable contributions to Churches and attacked the use of American’s free speech in churches.   The Clintons are the reason state and federal regulators closely monitor everything American churches do today from picnics to charitable giving.   Christians and retired soldiers are what the Clintons considered to be criminals and extremists.  Now the Clinton charity is the most corrupt political organization and family run money laundering corporation in history and apparently immune to FBI scrutiny.   Instead a retired Senator was just scandalized because he withdrew money in units of less than $10,000 to pay a blackmailer.  Yet nobody in this administration wants to look at the illegal blackmail or exposes the apparent teacher-child activities which the blackmail payments covered up.  That would upset NAMBLA and the CEO’s of several American companies who attack the American bill of rights.
            When Obama’s stupid party controlled both houses of Congress they did absolutely nothing for two years except create American Socialized Medicine with their lame duck Democrat Congress between their defeat in Nov of 2010 and when their stupid party Congress was put out on the street January 1, 2011.   They had the opportunity to improve the country’s infrastructure for energy and roads but all they did was lie to Americans about the cost of social medicine because they said Americans are too stupid to accept the cost of unlimited wealth redistribution to 40 million indigent people who already get free welfare, free cell phones, and ostentatiously use taxpayer money for gambling when cashing in their welfare checks at casinos.  Indigents also now get an IRS tax rebate of about $9000 each without paying taxes.  Koskinen said "Tax refund fraud exploded between 2010 and 2012" due to Obama administration enabled fraud and it's only gotten worse since then. Between 2011 and 2014, the IRS spotted $63 billion worth of fraudulent tax refunds. But the IRS paid identity thieves $5.2 billion in 2011 alone.  A half witted crime syndicate now regularly uses the incompetently run IRS run website to steal personal financial information on tax forms of 104,000 American’s this year.  That information can now be used to steal much more.   Obama-Clinton supporters blamed Republicans for the do-nothing Democrat stupid-party controlled Congress they were had in 2008 and for their phenomenal record of national and international stupidity, incompetence and corruption under both Obama and Hillary.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/02/technology/irs-hackers/
            June 2, 2015  This bubble has been driven by anxiety not exuberance as former stock market bubbles.   Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said the U.S. Federal Reserve should consider lifting interest rates sooner rather than later to deflate speculative bubbles in the housing and stock markets like we have today.   The first quarter the US economy sank 0.7%.  Another quarter like that will mean that a second Obama recession has started.  Nobel laureate Robert Shiller said U.S. equities now look expensive by any number of measures and that they are clear signs of a stock market bubble. For a start he said the typical stock in the S&P 500 now trades at 18.1 times forward earnings, which ranks in the highest 2% percentile of historical stock market bubbles since 1976.  The median PE expansion was 48 percent during the nine previous stock market bubbles but this bubble is already up 64%, almost 50% higher than the average bubble.  Shiller points out that the stock markets are sitting at levels not seen since 2000 when the Clinton dot-com bubble broke.  One of the indicators Shiller uses is based on a question that he has periodically asked individual and institutional investors, "Do you think the stock market is overvalued, undervalued, or about right?"  He found confidence of proper valuation has also reached its lowest point for individual investors since the stock market peaked in 2000. He said that is another source of concern and a symptom of a bubble.  When asked how worried he is about the prospects for the market over the next six months, Shiller said that his concern has risen that there could be a correction within the year.  He advised people to save more and diversify their investments because their portfolios probably won't do as well as they had hoped.
            Jim Cramer said, “Stock market bubble? What, me worry?”  Mad Money’s Jim Cramer should be on the cover of “Mad Magazine.”
            The corruption of the Clinton Organization is at least ten times the corruption of world soccer organization according to the lead article on the WSJ Opinion Page today.  The fact that the “Stupid Party” even considers Hilary to be a candidate shows either the corruption, the stupidity, or both corruption and stupidity level of “Stupid Party voters.”
            Bomb threats on US flights are reaching saturation levels and 90 % of potential bombs were not caught by the TSA during tests.  The TSA director is being replaced.  Crying wolf is a technique used to cloak real bomb threats.  American flights may now be actually targeted by terrorists throwing up this smoke screen to wear down the TSA guard.
            June 1, 2015  Manufacturing activity slowed and demand in May showed no sign of improvement across Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, South and North America.  The failed economically addictive Quantitative Easing tried by Japan on and off since 1990 has never worked other to create temporary stock market wealth.  Japan’s stock market peaked in 1990 with QE and has never approached that level again.  Today’s Nikkei high in Japan is about half of what was the high 25 years ago.  That implies we may have to wait 25 years to see our current highs again.  Japan was the test case for QE and any intelligent economists would have determined how to make it actually work before applying it in America.  Once America tried the poison the rest of the world thought it must be OK.  But this American President and FED seem to be incompetent enough to try anything.  QE is a temporary pain killer that leaves the patient paralyzed.  Pain makes gain is the principle of building a strong human body, a savings account, or a strong economy.   Lazy students who don’t exercise or study take the easy road of unemployment and poverty.  There is no easy road to a strong body, mind, or economy.  The easy road is the universal “stupid party” road which is the path ignorant barbarians, communists, thieves, primitive tribes, and National and International Socialists take to redistribute wealth from others to themselves and their power base.  
            Government corruption through influence peddling and favors is source of all the money going for Clinton speeches and family charities of politicians.  That charity money comes from taxpayers alone which corrupt politicians help divert through the businessmen, thieves, and demagogues who profit from the influence peddling.  Obama and the FED have put America on the road to nowhere. 
            GDP - Second Estimate Q1 was -0.7%
            Chicago PMI May fell to 46.2 from 52.3.  It is an important national survey and below the 50 breakeven is considered economic contraction.  Two GDP declining quarters in a row is the definition of a recession.
            Obama figures for personal income and spending make little sense again.  Obama’s forced transition of the labor force to part-time jobs from steady full time skilled jobs is continuing to kill personal income.  Medical costs are continuing to rise even as hospitals and doctors continue to close their doors.
            You can see that Manufacturing orders continue stagnant if you look at the chart, but the ABC TV network stupid party news said it is accelerating and Google published it as if it were true.  If consumer spending is down why would stores be ordering more thus raising manufacturing?  Stupid party economics makes no sense because they are clueless about economics.   They want only good news reported even if their phony data makes no sense.
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm
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Tuesday, May 26, 2015

May 28 2015 The shanghai stock exchange plunged about 6.5% today. Pending Home Sales (agreements to buy pending approval of financing) for Apr was up 3.4%, up from the 1.1% last month. The signer usually must get financing within two weeks or the deal collapses. This number always peaks at the end of the housing cycle as it did nine years ago. There is a glut of available housing in most of America and especially in cities. That is due to the collapse of the Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan Scam to give ineligible people housing at low interest rates that doubled or tripled within three years so technically they could sell out but only if prices went up. It was a get rich “stupid party” scam for poor people that backfired and now home ownership is the lowest percentage since Bill Clinton with a glut of houses now on the market.

            Who uses most of the Apple applications?  People on welfare get free cell phones courtesy of Obama to use because they have nothing to do.   Immature high school students use them during class while taking special electives instead of critical courses needed to hold a job.   Apple is marketing heavily to this unemployable next generation, the “stupid party” generation which will eventually be replaced entirely by machines.  The unemployable will need to be amused all their lives and engaged with games that make them “winners” at something so they are docile and dependent on the government.  That is like the Romans who kept the peace by feeding Christians to lions to amuse their unemployables.   It is the sign of a decadent, corrupt society in collapse.  The unemployable are already addicted to games, porn, and social media, and still gush about it on Facebook.   Soon to be high school dropouts are playing the childish war and castle games. 
            American housing will never be the same.  With “stupid party” Obama/Hillary type leadership the new concept of housing is the low rise apartment complex popular in communist countries.   The suburbs will be areas of poverty and blight as they were in the 1920’s because the cities will control and keep all the money.   Most of today’s abandoned housing will never sell again.   Vandals are already stealing the copper and burning them down.   Under the Obama-Clinton  “stupid party” the Housing industry will remain crushed.  Their first crushing “stupid party” blow to American housing was their government backed liar-loans to people who were not educated enough to be capable of disciplined budgeting.  
            There will be more and more communal living and less and less family living under the “stupid party”.    Many unemployable dropouts will live with their parents well into their 30’s and never buy a house or have a family in their life time.  They will move into a communal tribal village setting as Hilary Clinton advocated with the African tribal proverb, “It takes a village to raise a child.”  That is the “stupid party” solution!     Intelligent Americans know just the opposite.  Intelligent Americans know that the shared fatherless tribal family is a root cause of world poverty.  The mother and father family unit is what separated intelligent humans from the other animals that either share partners or let the most aggressive male take all the females.  The primitive tribes and hippie communes generally share partners.  That way few feel a strong bond and responsibility.   CEO’s who support NAMBLA do not support the traditional mother-father family unit.  Stupid people do not want responsibility and that makes societies led by a “stupid party tribes” dependent and impoverished. 
            The CEO’s of Walmart, Apple, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike are such free thinkers that their brains apparently fell out.  They want to discriminate against and boycott Christians and Jews who support Judeo-Christian family traditions. and thus oppose child predator groups.  The Boy Scout Council is now under pressure too to ask no more questions about Boy Scout leaders because NAMBLA says 12yr olds should have the right to make their own moral decisions about man-boy love.  Our industry and the “stupid party” are being taken over by the immoral exploiters of the least able to defend themselves.  Americans need to clean house.
            Yesterday stocks partially recovered but on lower volume indicating cash continues to leave the stock market.  It is reported that the bubble in private loans to start-ups is now bigger than the stock market bubble and today the NASDAQ bubble is bigger than in 2000 when corrupt accounting was used to fraudulently make the PE ratios look reasonable.  We submit that stock valuations, especially the drug stocks, are built upon unsound accounting practices worse than in 2000 with the current administration adding to corruption in bank lending.  These problems only get exposed when their schemes collapse, or the current Obama QE bubble bursts.
The MBA Mortgage Index 05/23 was  -1.6% from -1.5% last month.  Declining applications means declining housing sales ahead.
Initial Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims 05/16 both rose again. 
            But most significant is that the percentage of Americans employed is declining and women are being let go in higher percentages than men under “stupid party” mismanagement of the economy.  The Obama administration fools the public by declaring more and more Americans unemployable so that they are not even counted.  That is right, the stupid party voting base are not even counted as employable so that keeps the Obama unemployment rate declining.  When the “stupid party” declares all Americans unemployable they will tell us we have zero unemployment!  That is just how stupid the “stupid party” has become.
            May 27 2015  How have corporations been able to meet rising revenue and earnings projections these past two years in a stagnant Obama economy?  By cooking the books such as by bookkeeping expenses as investments, violating accounting practices by computing profit at the time of manufacture or shipment instead of sale, or as Greece and others were doing in year 2000, parking debts in external accounts.   It took until 2002 to understand the stock market collapse that started in 2000 during the Clinton administration. It is called creative accounting.  This type of corporate corruption is what we expect will be shown to be the basis of the current inflated stock prices.
            So far the Oil Cartel has not been able to keep the price of oil below the $40/barrel cost of shale oil and therefore shale oil production will continue to grow.  Once US shale oil production costs rise about 25% the American companies will go abroad and Eastern Europe will likely become the next biggest supplier.  As it is each continent has a massive reserve of shale oil and Siberia and Africa have potentially the largest supplies.
            Currently ISIS is outsmarting Obama’s Junior Varsity White House Czars about 4 to 1.  The Obama strategy seems to be to abandon the Sunnis entirely and have a nuclear armed Tehran invade and dominate the Mid East under the Shiites.
            Who can forget Obama’s and Holder’s “fast and furious” gun running to make retired and active gun owning American servicemen look like right wing extremists.  If Mexico decides in 2017 that they want to extradite Holder and Obama and put then on trial in Mexico for the deaths of approximately 29900 innocent men, women and children would America be required by the Geneva Convention to turn them over for a genocide trial?   On Monday night 9PM EST, a Moslem guest on Fox sarcastically pointed out that ISIS extremists in America are not on the US most wanted list.  He said Obama and Holder have put “right wing extremists” i.e. our returning veterans on FBI’s #1 watch list.   That is what Clinton did too and it resulted in innocent death of a retired Green Beret, his wife and his child at Ruby Ridge and 76 Mormon men, women and children that Clinton defined as “extremists” at  Wako.  In fact Obama recently had the FOX reporter Rosen on the NSA wire-tap watch list too, in addition to having all American Christian religious and Historical societies harassed by the IRS.  Corruption of the US government is why we can no longer believe any of Obama’s economic statistics.  Political corruption and stupid party infiltration of many corporations is why this stock market is about to implode.  GM has had several CEOs appointed by Obama and it is a monument to “Stupid Party” incompetence.
 
May 26 2015  When corporations lose their moral compass and their focus on their core business they may become terrible investments.  Wall Street Journal says Walmart may have been caught engaging in illegal international fraud and bribery.  Walmart which came out against the American Constitution’s guarantee of freedom of religion and the right to object on religious grounds to pedophiles and others preying on American children, has now been accused of illegal monopolistic violations of US and international laws.  The challenge also raises the question of Walmart’s external auditors’ responsibilities when their client Walmart may have violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the U.S. antibribery law. If an outside auditor discovers a potentially illegal act, it generally is morally expected to notify responsible authorities within the company the accounting and legal experts said.  But it should be obliged to notify the government if the appropriate steps aren’t being taken and a company’s books may be compromised, they said.  Walmart is also known to use other tricks and diversions to accomplish a monopoly.  They often purchase a defunct store and pretend they will turn it into a super-store.  That tactic is unwisely supported by the local town which gives Walmart a huge tax break while it immediately suppresses competition in the region because no one else dares open a store in that area.  Then Walmart quietly discards the idea, demolishes the old store they bought, and simply converts an existing Walmart near by to a super store.  They thereby paralyze the development of any competition in the town where they got a huge tax break and now have a valuable piece of property they can later sell to a non-competitor.             
            Walmart has joined other executives that have lost their moral compass and indicate they might boycott states that allow religious groups to abstain from supporting in any way NAMBLA like activities because the CEO’s say that is religious discrimination.  They think NAMBLA is a worthy American institution and children at least down to the age of 12 or 8 should be allowed to decide sex for themselves without parental consent or having religious groups interfering.   Walmart no longer believes in the freedom of the press either and reportedly drops books they say discriminate against NAMBLA activities.   The Boy Scouts have also recently been targeted to reduce their wise discrimination against predators.  We are returning to the awful situation of the 1990’s when the Clintons were in office and child rape was at its peak.
            The following companies have lost their focus on their core businesses and their CEOs joined together in trying to prevent churches, religious groups and others from executing their constitutional right to freedom of religion, thought, and press.   Walmart, Apple, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike.
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Saturday, May 23, 2015

The FBI is being made dysfunctional by our corrupt American administration. We saw another example of the 47% collapse of an artificially inflated and overpriced Chinese stock May 22, 2015. We have warned that:


·     Never before has the US government, the Chinese government, and private stock companies been more corrupt than they are today. 

·     Never before have world markets been this susceptible to a rapid selloff of 60% to 95% possibly in two steps within a week that as recently as five years ago would have taken three to six months at what was once the maximum rate of decline.

            This American national government is the first in history to force banks to admit criminal fraud and manipulation of stocks, derivatives, and international currency with the promise that the criminals are immune to prosecution.   Yes, Obama allows the criminals to stay on the job.  Essentially our central government itself is now so corrupt to its very core that it comes back to these banks year after year for additional pay-offs just the way the gangsters and city mayors ran the American cities in the 1930’s.   The coffers of the corrupt “stupid party” politicians are filled to overflowing in personal charity frauds. 

            There is a book out that that reveals that it was the mayor of Albany NY put Legs Diamond on a hit list when Legs tried to mussel in on the Albany Democrat machine’s gambling monopoly.  The Albany detective who made the hit on Legs was eventually was made Chief of Albany Police.  Corruption can only thrive in cities and nations when the government itself is corrupt to the core.  This kind of corruption has reached international levels now.  We have a politician running for office now that got away with a small Whitewater payoff of $100,000 for state corruption and now controls millions in a personal family run charity garnered from influencing (corrupting) governments.   And that is an American presidential candidate that the FBI is apparently is afraid to investigate.

            Meanwhile Obama had the NSA use US supercomputers to analyze all the NJ Governor’s administration communications to fabricate (in less than a few weeks) a conspiracy to discredit the NJ governor and take him out of running against Hilary.

            China’s corruption has been rife for years.  Alibaba is the most absurd IPO so far in world history with a price tag based on fraudulent operations valuations, counterfeit products, and absurd growth estimates.   The corporations in China and the USA are padding their books more than ENRON and other high flying company executives were doing creating the Clinton stock market bubble of 2000.

            But added to the surge in government corruption under Obama we have wire-theft enabled by automated high speed trading.  It is now conceivable to use identity theft and high speed trading together to completely disrupt trading, cause a complete collapse of the stock market and financial systems, and make it impossible to identify the criminals.

            Lately the stock market has been manipulated to stay in a very narrow advancing low volatile trading range that is lulling investors into complacency.  The manipulation of the American and Chinese markets is becoming obvious but our inept and corrupt government agencies are doing nothing to stop the growing government crime and corruption. 

            The FBI is being undermined by this corrupt administration.  The FBI must come back to the aid of Americans now before it is too late!
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Monday, May 18, 2015

May 22, 2015 It is now becoming clear what is likely going to prick the stock market bubble. We now predict the Obama-Clinton “stupid Party” national and world wide corruption will be the mechanism that unravels the stock market later this year. Today the WSJ shows that the evil ISIS now infects most of Syria and Iraq. Just fill in the surrounded desert areas and you see that while Kurdistan could survive, Iraq and Syria have all but fallen to ISIS. This shows the incredible ineptness of the Obama-Clinton foreign policies that have weakened American friends and empowered evil throughout the world. The result of the Obama-Clinton Foreign Policy is becoming clearer. They have all along planned to abandon Israel and our Sunni friends to the Iranian Shiites.

            The Obama-Clinton policy will apparently allow Iran to invade and wipe out ISIS and be the primary Arab power in the Mid East.  Ultimately, Obama apparently will abandon Yemen as well and Saudi Arabia.  And Iran will be building nuclear weapons.  Syria will probably survive as ally of Iran and Russia.  ISIS will be replaced by an Iranian empire where Mullahs have already declared they will destroy America and Israel.  And only after Iran and Syria have destroyed the Sunnis will Osama Husein Obama and Hilary Clinton realize just how stupid their foreign policies have been.  All this will likely begin to happen as soon as the Obama Nuclear talks with Iran fall apart in June and Obama becomes desperate about the impending collapse of Iraq’s Shiite government.  Obama will not likely stop the Iranian Shiites from aiding Iraqi Shiites.  President Bashar al-Assad's genocidal Syrian government is already allied with Iran and Russia.  Iraq under Iran will denounce America and be allied to Russia.  Every remaining western oriented Arab nation will then likely run from Obama.   The Iranian Empire will be back in power.  But it will be anti-American, anti Israel, pro Russian, and nuclear armed.
            Here in America the Obama- Clinton administration stands out as the most corrupt and stupid in American history, causing 30,000 deaths in Mexico just running guns trying to pin the blame on American gun owners.      
            The leftists used the IRS to harass centrist individual Americans and organizations as benign as the historical societies with tax audits, corporate challenges, and the likes.
            The stupid party leftists think illegal immigrants will vote for them but they will be in for a big surprise because the immigrants are coming to America to try to escape political corruption.   The stupid party leftists abandoned our allies in the Mid East and are against the existence of Israel.  Many more immigrants will be trying to come to America and they will almost all oppose the Obama-Clinton “Stupid Party.”
            The “Stupid Party” has now undermined the American police force and the murder rate of minorities in cities run by the “Stupid Party” is now skyrocketing.  Minorities will soon realize just how stupid the Obama-Hilary party has become and they will refuse to vote for the failed stupid party.
            And how will the stock market fair with the immanent collapse of all the Clinton-Obama foreign and social policies.   We predict the collapse of Obama-Clinton inspired corruption will be the trigger mechanisms of the next stock market collapse.   Simple fraud was also the cause of the original 2000 Clinton stock market collapse and will likely be the trigger for the collapse that will occur once people realize the “Stupid Party” has corrupted the American economy as well as the government.  Remember Enron, Whitewater, and all the other companies that thrived on early Clinton corruption?  If not you can still read about it.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-partners-holdings-defrauded-investors-a-trustees-filing-says-1432252418
http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/klayman/130126
http://www.accounting-degree.org/scandals/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000764
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Monday, May 11, 2015

May 15, 2015 We are now in the end game of this stock market bubble. The smart money has learned that we have seen the market top. The smart money has a lot of stock unload on the naive so whenever a stock gets near its high or the market is topping out again they sell their stocks near the old highs. That is why the market keeps topping out and volume is declining on advances, because there are fewer weak hands willing to buy. And when the ill informed weak hand buys near a high he gets depressed when the market drops. That psychologically conditions the weak hands to panic and sell before they accumulate large losses. That is why we see low volume each time the market approaches the old highs now and volume picks up on the declines. At some point most investors will see the writing on the wall and the market will plunge on high volume. Last October we had the first dry run plunge. The second panic could come any time now and it will be different because the sellers will come in five or ten percent lower than the previous highs. The third panic will be when Jim Cramer says, “Sell, sell, sell! They are all nuts!”

            All five indices we track are topped out and the cash flow shows they have peaked.  But only the NYSE cash flow gave the early warning sell signal last October.  We said then and have repeated it several times that it is an early warning signal and it would be this summer or fall before the early bird, Jim Cramer finally says, “Sell, sell, sell!”  By then we expect the market will be 20% to 30% off the highs.
            All the BS about the economy revving up is from wealthy investors who are tying to unload their stocks.  The Stupid Party’s economy is what you get with an American president that was endorsed by the socialist dictators of Cuba, and Venezuela. 
            “I am a Marxist Leninist and I will be one until the last day of my life.” “How can we help President Obama?”  -Fidel Castro
            “I shook Obama's hand and I said, 'I want to be your friend.' My hand is still outstretched. I am not Obama's enemy, but it's difficult not see imperialism in Washington.” -Hugo Chavez
            May 14   Wall Street's major indexes gave up early gains to end Wednesday's session flat lined.   The accelerating rate of decline in the growth of China’s economy projects to a recession, a “first time” capitalist economic decline, occurring before 2017 is over.   Of course under socialism the country remained one of the poorest in the world.
The Russell 2000 index cash flow is about to confirm the NYSE cash flow sell signal with a head and shoulder neckline breakdown.  The NASDAQ and STD and Poors cash flow indices are also weakening.
Yahoo Finance still could not produce the 5-12-15 stock index volumes for the NYSE, SandP, NASDAQ, and Russell.  How sad that they still could not fix their problem after two days.   Volume is important for computing momentum and cash flow, but there are other sources for good estimates.       
            Oil prices have declined before every US recession since the Great Depression.    It is due to the world-wide economic slowdown not fracking. The economies of the world are entering a severe recession which given President Obama’s incompetence, could end up being a great depression before Obama leaves office.  Obama can’t even get his new Trade Bill with Japan through his own “Stupid Party.”
            The Commerce Department announced the bad news Wednesday that business inventories rose 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.2 percent in February.   Unfortunately production will have to be reduced because in an economic deflation sales prices and sales both come down.  GDP growth will therefore be lower than Obama has been told.  Also both import and export prices have been declining putting pressure on profits in addition to the declining sales. 
            Bonds will collapse in value as the economy drives long term interest rates higher and the free-world FEDs all loose control of world interest rates.  On Squawk Box the commented on Venezuela and Russia as evidence of the stupidity of the leftists of the Stupid Party.  They asked, “How can anyone believe that socialism is good?”
            April retail sales fell flat and mall stores have been closing in droves.  The restaurant business is falling as consumers hunker down and feel the economic squeeze.
JOLTS – Potential Job Openings for March down to 4.994M from the already weak 5.133M in very cold February.   The Treasury Budget for Apr of $157.0B increased from $106.9B as Taxes came due. 
The May MBA Mortgage Index 05/09 fell another -3.5% as home sales fell just when they normally hit spring highs.  The USA lacks a Presidential leader and a snarling big mouth Stupid Party election win will definitely bring on a world depression as American influence will fade even faster.
            May 13  The International Energy Agency said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are just beginning their battle for market share.   They are hiking oil production to further suppress oil prices until fracking is a money losing process.
The Bank of England has downgraded its forecast for the British economy's growth this year to 2.5 percent.
Greece has fallen back into recession, as the economy contracted by 0.2pc in the first three months of the year.
The German economy grew by 0.3 per cent on the first quarter less than half the 0.7 per cent growth rate in the final three months of 2014.
The weary US stock markets are making their last gasp attempts to break into higher territory.
 
            May 12  Today we are beginning to see what we predicted a week or two ago that would so happen.  Interest rates are increasing in spite of the low FED rates in Western countries.  Rates are rising because the risk of a worldwide recession is increasing and a liquidity crisis is coming because all that low interest debt pumped into the western economies has gone into equities, sports cars, defaulted home loans, casinos, and high tech games, watches and worthless diversions that are even destroying the ambition and intellect of school children.   Even the German debt rates spiked this morning.  Because Yellen was too timid to stop QE and reverse it, the house of cards will eventually fall apart on its own.  The 10yr Bond rate was up over 11 % this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND/chart
            May 11 Obama would help the entire world if he would just quietly resign.  No sane leader in the Mid East would back a moronic Obama plan that would give Iran nuclear weapons on any time table.  Obama is beginning to embarrass himself as well as Hilary and the rest of the stupid party who keep losing or deleting their email so as not to expose their stupidity, their graft and their illegal use of government agencies to spy on and harass Americans.   Obama had the NSA use their supercomputer to analyze all the telephone records of the friends and staff of Governor Christy.  They looked for any conversation that contained the words bridge, traffic, NJ, names of NJ towns or which implied collusion or conspiracy.  This was all completed in less than a month.  Two members of Christy’s staff have been charged but both say there was no conspiracy and the NSA conclusions are random errors.   Correction: The only conspiracy has been the Obama administration’s use of government agencies to harass and intimidate American citizens and numerous governors and other would be political opponents.
            Etsy brands itself as an online marketplace for unique goods, but the company may have counterfeit and infringement problems that eclipse those of other e-commerce giants such as Alibaba.   Shares were down 9% today.   "Our research indicates as many as 2 million items on Etsy may potentially be either counterfeit," Luria said.
            Oil prices slipped Monday as the dollar strengthened and analysts cautioned that the market’s recent rally will soon run out of steam.  Bloomberg says oil will retreat again to at least $25/barel as the global crude supply glut gets worse.  There are signs that US shale oil production is recovering.  Analysts talk of a growing disconnect between the futures market, which has gained more than 40 per cent since its January low, and the still growing physical supply glut.   Morgan Stanley said that there are growing supplies in the physical market, signs of increasing activity in US shale oil production and higher OPEC output coming on line.  The Cartel has vowed to increase productivity to drive out the American shale oil industry.  But at the same time Poland and other Eastern European countries are ready to exploit their enormous shale oil reserves if the American rigs can weather this storm.  In any event the world oil price will unlikely see $80/barrel for at least five years and could see $25 first if the OPEC group seeks to stop the worlds accelerating exploitation of shale oil.  The USA is currently but a drop in the barrel.
            The Consumer Sentiment in this 2015 stock market bubble is consistent with the 2000 bubble and the 2007 bubble.  But each bubble’s burst has deflated the wealth of the American consumer, because crony capitalism and government Treasury and FED financial manipulation has favored the crony capitalists.  Their latest gimmick is the Clinton Charity which pays out 80% in salaries and gets its contributions by delivering American favors to corrupt world leaders.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment
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Tuesday, May 5, 2015

May 8, 2015 U.S. wholesaler’s sales fell for an eighth straight month. Their inventory stockpiles rose another 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent rise in February. Sales at the wholesale level fell 0.2 percent after an even bigger 0.6 percent drop in February. Sales have fallen every month since August. New hires rose this month coincidentally by the number it was reported deficient last month implying nothing changed. Yet investors desperately grabbed for every last straw. This news was all spun to be good news and stocks rose considerably. The DOW, NYSE, and the STD and Poors indices all came close to old highs but they have hit those levels many times in the past three to nine months. But the NASDAQ faltered and the Russell 2000 seems to have given up trying. The Obama administration continues to slowly poison the American economy and national morale. Now we are on alert for domestic Moslems conducting ISIS attacks, while thieves and thugs have taken to the street looting and the police everywhere are under attack and being depicted as criminals by this administration. Payrolls have remained stagnant for five years and that was also spun as positive.

Factory orders have decline to the worst recession lows yet Obama data manipulators say things are humming again.
 
Terrible earnings reports are coming out even with all the balance sheet contortions. Jim Crammer advises to just keep earnings up while revenue declines.  One of the largest wastes of money was the Alibaba IPO.  Wait until the cheap counterfeit junk hits the world markets and the law suits pile up and the regulators pile in.  Will they let you buy a genuine imitation Rolex watch for $30 as a special mark down?   How about selling the complete new version of Microsoft Office for a nifty $39.99.   These are the hot items China and Singapore sold in the past. The Communist Party already gave the boot to the honest and friendly Alibaba CEO who sold the Free World on the Alibaba IPO deal.  Now the “Party” runs the company.  Does that mean the Chinese Intelligence Agency will staff all the Free World Alibaba offices to tap into product developments so they can beat the competition to the patent offices?  The Japanese were very good at that too into the 1980’s and for a while produced twice the volume of patents as Americans.  Alibaba stock will take a huge tumble soon but it will come back in a few years because like Google it is here to stay for quite some time.  It will put many retail outlets out of business and cause massive layoffs from the American services sector. 
 
May 7, 2015  Master of stock market snake oil, Jim Cramer, yesterday criticized Janet Yellen for warning of another stock market bubble ready to collapse.   Yellen has not raised long term interest rates, but that is beginning to happen now on its own… naturally (see long term treasury rates rising over 3%).   That is because when the FED does nothing the economic forces take over and we lose control of our economy.  That is what is now starting.  Greenspan agrees with Yellen but as we predict, the mental midget Jim Cramer will not recognize this bubble collapse until the fall or at best this summer.  On March 6, 2015,  Greenspan recently said without a doubt stocks are overvalued.  That is far more ominous than the irrational exuberance reference he once made to the Dot Com bubble.  We fine tune our prediction now to say that before July 2015 the 65 Day moving averages of the major stock market indices will begin to roll over and show price topping has begun.
Consumer Credit tapped out at $20.5B in March.
Businesses added only 169,000 jobs in April. Economists had hoped for more than 200,000 new jobs to show the recession was slowing.   ADP also revised down its March report to 175,000 jobs from the previously announced 189,000 which showed the economy declining.  The GDP had already been revised down from 1.5% to just 0.2%.  However, it is expected they will drop it further so the next quarter will look like it is improving.  That is how Obama economists work.  The have claimed each quarter for the last five years that things were improving and then revised the earlier figures down so they had room to exaggerate the current economy.  They claim Americans are too stupid to know the difference and those who vote for the Stupid Party support their claim.  While most Americans who vote for the “Stupid Obama Party” are stupid and were lied too, the Democrats knew Americans were too smart to support their health care bill so they deceived Americans and promised things they knew were outright lies such as guaranteeing you could keep your own doctor.  And Pelosi was the worst.  She knew Gruber was telling lies and denied it and she was caught.
Today some fool gave the best reason ever for selling Tesla and several other high multiple stocks.  He said they were growth stocks because if they don’t grow the Earth will be destroyed by global warming.   It is the reason why AOL and other stocks were part of the biggest stock market bubble ending in February of 2000.   Only the reasoning of a fool can explain our current bubble prices.  And Jim Cramer is one who is on TV working because he continues to lose his shirt taking his own advice.
            All the GDP and other Stupid Party fabricated data that is put out there have no relation to the real world.  The data is intended to deflect criticism and deceive people who are stupid enough to believe them.  Americans know the Obama game has been to cut work week hours 25% from 40 to fewer than 30.  When that is achieved, if 5% are still unemployed it is really 5% plus 25% or effectively 30% unemployment compared to when 40 hours was the normal work week.   If Obama cuts the work week another 5% he could be out telling stupid Americans that there was close to zero unemployment and the Stupid Party voters would be glad to support him and Hilary.  Obama is using lower working hours to redistribute wealth.
 
May 6     This week, Q1 2015 GDP came in almost negative, at 0.2%.  Meanwhile, in the same quarter, both the Dow and Nasdaq reached new record highs.  It must be noted that the coincidence of essentially no economic growth and record stock performance is at once bizarre, unstable, and likely short lived.   What’s wrong with this economic picture?  See the report.
Lots of money flowed into bearish China ETF’s yesterday indicating China’s bull run is ending.
The top 25 hedge fund managers took $US11.62 billion off the top in compensation out of the pockets of small investors, more than their small investors made collectively the past six months.
Wells Fargo Bank employees have been charged with illegally opening unauthorized accounts for customers to meet unrealistic sales quotas. Wells Fargo is accused of opening up accounts and credit cards in customers' names without their authorization and then billing them.
 
May 5, 2015  Three of the five indices we follow have now had four or more failed attempts to break out over the last two to eight months.  The Russell 2000 may have given up now.  Only the NASDAQ continued to rise until it recently hit its 2000 bubble record.  For most indices they are near their highs of 2000 and 2007.  To believe it can go higher with the economic mismanagement of this administration would call for a lot of faith in technology and game theory.  We now have high speed trading that allows high speed traders to sell and buy microseconds ahead and after us of us and capture profits on every price change.  But they only redistribute our wealth to themselves, they do not create wealth.
The US Trade Balance Mar of -$51.4B was about 50% worse than February as the dollar strengthened.
Factory orders continue to plummet while the Jim Crammer con job continues to spin.
Labor costs continue to rise while output declines.
But Jim Cramer is that goat that leads the investors up the plank to the slaughter room. And he personally attacks and recommends the selling of the stock of any CEO’s who tells the truth.  Today he praised a CEO who raised the estimate of the value of his corporation’s “CONTENT” by 40% and boosted its profit projection banking the estimate at this current “Bubble Top.”  The Crammer report is as conjured and corrupt as it was in 2000 when under Clinton, AOL (the internet service) was a behemoth and Jim Cramer spouted valuations 1000% higher than they were one year later.  Once a liar always a liar because no one will buy stocks now unless the stock market snake charmers like Cramer don’t put on a good act.  If you tell the truth CNBC either cans you or sends you to FOX News.
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