Monday, November 9, 2015

November 13 Yesterday the stock market resembled August 24 when the end of the frothy period for manipulation of revenue and profits was seen as inevitable. U.S. retail sales passed its peak in October amid a decline in automobile purchases, and a collapse of sales and profits at Macys and other top line stores. It is evidence of the second Obama recession which will be much harder for the “stupid party” to blame on George Bush. The slowdown in consumer spending is evidence that the FED is already hopelessly pushing on a string because the FED has waited too long to regain control of interest rates. Obama and the FED have for the first time set America up with the problems plaguing Ireland, Portugal, and other third-world economies. Typically this situation leads to a recession and riots in third world countries and a depression and wars in developed countries.

            The two Obama recessions are similar to 1929 Hoover recession and stock market selloff followed later by the FDR/Weimar depression (complete loss of fiscal control) that led to the rise of communism and WWII.  Obama and the FED have created a very ugly situation and all America’s allies are beginning to blame their own hard times on America.  They are saying the FED should hold off but in fact the FED has already waited too long and can do nothing to stimulate the economy because the USA has piled on more debt under the incompetent “stupid party” than all the debt America accumulated before Obama.  Under the current world conditions many national economies could be wiped out by the very rare condition of hyperinflation.  And if the internet is sabotaged or something else like that occurs, everything people have saved will disappear for some time and all nations will have to print paper money.  The “stupid party” bailouts, QE1,2,&3, and FED 0% interest have put the economies of the world in the most unstable and dangerous situation not seen since 1939. 
            The situation being created by the stupid party need not occur if Americans vote in an American administration in 2016 that is free-enterprise oriented and i.e. not socialist-evil and stupid.  
            The German and the USSR administrations in the 1930’s became socialist, i.e. they were both evil and stupid.  They harassed free-enterprise opponents like the Obama administration already is doing.   American administrations that spy on and harass reporters and other honest and productive citizens are stupid, evil, and likely national socialist or communist at heart.   That is why so many Americans hate Obama’s new socialist “stupid party.”
            Job openings in the U.S. climbed in September to the second-highest on record, but since the politically correct leftist run educational system is not producing qualified graduates the unfilled openings can only continue to increase.  The number of positions waiting to be filled increased to 5.53 million from a revised 5.38 million in August.  The September openings were second only to July’s 5.67 million, which was the highest since records began in December 2000.  Imagine that; under the “stupid party’s” incompetent administration and politically correct education we are now producing record numbers of incompetent high school and college graduates.
            Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 276,000 for the week ended Nov. 7, consistent labor market strength that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December as expected.
            November 12    If this last August-September bear market swing was like the first one that plunged on the November day right after Obama was elected then the next market plunge could be -50% followed by a third and final lower market bottom three months later.   Incompetence, fraud and corruption have been the hall marks of America’s current stupid party governance and it has permeated much of the stupid party’s crony capitalist system.  That is why the stock market and the American economy are now so vulnerable.
            So what if China's e-commerce company Alibaba just sold a record $14.3 billion on Singles Day!  They have done virtually nothing in the year since their IPO.   Their web sites have not improved at all.   Who puts out this Alibaba phony success nonsense?   Go on-line and see for yourself just how crude the Alibaba website still is.  http://resources.alibaba.com/topic/643206/10_TIPS_FOR_YOUR_FIRST_SAFE_BUY_IN_ALIBABA.htm
            November 11  The American government, economy, and the stock market are now all permeated with corruption and all are ripe for a serious shake-up.   An American groundswell is beginning and will sweep out the corruption and fire all the DC political demigods. 
            The Obama administration has restarted its quiet illegal political harassment of critics.   He has reinstated all his harassment schemes except the earlier illegal and phony Obama IRS’s tax claims against critics and his illegal IRS denial of non-profit tax status for non-profit groups that know or speak out when a government is corrupt, incompetent, and dishonest.  Today the stupid party is again using their corrupt contacts in insurance companies to inflate, and sometimes over a few years they even double the cost of insurance for Obama critics.   Today the corrupted media and universities get special favors or government grants when they attack the free speech of critics of the administration and of socialism.  That was never seen before in America. 
            Obama appointed the incompetent GM CEO who had GM’s defective ignition switches installed and then Obama’s administration blamed the GM problem on the CEO who fixed the problem after GM was freed of incompetent Obama administration oversight. 
            Now Obama has once again corrupted the insurance industry and many critics of the Obama’s “stupid party” are again seeing increases in home insurance just like they did previously concurrent with the illegal 2012 IRS harassment.  The “stupid party” also rewards many leftist TV stations with government favors and grants for attacking opponents of socialism to try to mobilize the public opinion against the opponents of the “stupid party” and to demonstrate, riot against, and disrupt the American military and police.   Most of the leftist networks would go out of business if they had to depend on American audiences for funds.   Socialists get fee tuition and Obama government grants on college campuses for making sure free speech is only available to socialists and other dunces.   Student debts are selectively forgiven and "stupid Party" Cherokee impostors get teaching jobs at Harvard.
            General Petraeus was set up and destroyed by the Obama administration because he was successful in Iraq and Afghanistan and made critical comments about the administration that were published in a left wing rag “Rolling Stone”.   But the US FBI has apparently been told by Obama to stand down and not to expose the Top Secret breaches of telephone and email security by Hilary Clinton.  Honest Americans are aghast and now furious.
            First the founder of Bank of America, Ken Lewis, was forced by the administration to buy Countrywide and Merrill Lynch in 2009 making BOA a virtual “financial bomb.” Then Obama along with the states controlled by the “stupid party” forced Ken Lewis to resign and had an incompetent Obama supporter made the BOA CEO.   That was a secret illegal conspiracy against a famous American Banker.  So far the CEO that Obama appointed has been a disaster and the BOA stock holders cannot seem to get rid of him. 
       We timely pointed out the fact when Obama mobilized all the “stupid party” controlled states to buy BOA stock and vote their pension fund shares against BOA’s CEO Ken Lewis.  But Ken Lewis won the election anyway and refused to resign until Obama corruptly and dishonestly used his Justice Department to harass BOA until Ken Lewis gave in.  
        Here is proof of how corrupt individuals in “stupid party” states illegally supported the corrupt Obama administration exposing state employee pension funds to significant losses in the stock market.
         “In April 2009, Nappier called on Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis to resign.[27] She also called on other senior officials to resign due to the banks acquisition of Merrill Lynch and $20 billion in loses in the fourth-quarter of 2008.[28]  As Treasurer, Nappier represents the Connecticut Pension fund system and the Connecticut's Department of Treasury on Bank of America's board of shareholders, due to the state owning 3.2 million shares ($34.7 million in market value) of the bank.[29] At the annual shareholders meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, Nappier voted against keeping the established leadership, saying that "In the interest of Bank of America's future growth and success, it's time to clean house and set the financial health of the company on a sustainable path." 
            It is clear that the “stupid party” in Connecticut was willing to lose state employee pension funds and to burden Connecticut taxpayers by illegally speculating on the stock of a bank to support an incompetent “stupid party” president by punishing the bank founder and CEO Ken Lewis at the bank’s annual meeting.
            We did not know at that time that the “stupid party” in addition to corrupting state governments was also infiltrating and corrupting state regulated insurance companies with agents to raise the premiums of Obama’s critics.   Insurance companies are regulated by 50 individual state commissions some politically controlled by corrupt “stupid party” officials.  That allows the “stupid party” to maintain politically corrupt state control and keep premiums high for people who oppose the “Stupid Party.”  Obama administration widespread corruption, dishonesty, illegal eves dropping, and incompetence are why so many Americans are getting ready to throw his entire “stupid party” out. 
            Donald Trump went on SNL Tuesday and had the highest rating in many years.  But if people now start coming forward to complain about politically corrupted insurance companies being used for illegal political harassment, then the “stupid party” will get blown away.  And if honest people now come forward to tell their stories then a new elected government with new federal investigations will clean out bloated federal and state governments along with their “Stupid Party” corruption.  You can bet that this corrupt Obama administration has the FBI and the NSA working overtime taping Donald Trump’s private life as they did with General Petraeus and Governor Christie.  And you can bet many in the FBI and the NSA will come forward later to expose many corrupt stupid party state and federal politicians and private corporation agents who will then be sent to Federal Prison.
            Legal Hispanic American immigrants remember how they came to America to escape the drug cartels which Obama/Holder armed with their illegal “Fast and Furious” gun running.  30,000 Mexicans were slaughtered in Mexico with the guns that Obama and Holder secretly sent to Mexico to try to discredit American legal gun owners.  Yes, they are not only corrupt; they could also be handed over to Mexico to be tried for murder.  Now the majority of Hispanic voters want the illegal immigrant drug cartel thugs deported back to Mexico.  Most legal Hispanic-American voters now hate the “Stupid Party” corruption because Obama reminds them of what they fled coming to America.  The Supreme Court has just blocked Obama’s criminal Executive Order that would have allowed illegal immigrant drug cartel gangsters to become US citizens.
            November 10    'Okun's Law' was economist Arthur Okun’s idea, which states that when unemployment falls by 1%, GDP rises by 3%.  It proves that real unemployment has not dropped 5% because we would have seen a 15% improvement in America’s GNP.  Does anyone believe the economy has improved under Obama?  No it is worse today because GDP fell as unemployment rose.  But today our economy is almost back up to where President Bush left it.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
            November 9    Wall Street analysts and money managers now say stocks are too expensive.  Corporation earnings are inflated, unsustainable, and stock buy backs make them manipulated and unpredictable.  The next leg of the 2015 bear market could start any time now.
http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/es-browning/6013
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-outlook-turns-murkier-1446978605
            The WSJ says stocks aren’t going up, up, up anymore.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-year-end-game-plan-for-investors-1447038003
            Wall Street banks are now struggling to sell risky deal takeover debt to a shrinking market of gullible investors.  This is the riskiest situation since the Clinton DOTCOM bubble broke and the stock market financial and technology stocks imploded.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/takeover-loans-have-few-takers-on-wall-street-1447028873
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2202&dat=20070921&id=BHwlAAAAIBAJ&sjid=nfQFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5318,2781420&hl=en
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/world
            Obama brags that his “stupid party” socialist policies created a record 12 million more hamburger helper part-time jobs than the previous pro-capitalist administration.  In addition he claims he has succeeded in creating more American debt than all administrations combined from George Washington to George Bush.   That even makes the Clinton’s budget deficits look meager and bad in Obama’s eyes.  The US government debt now exceeds $18.56 trillion dollars.  But when you add in US corporate and personal debt America owes a record $65.8 trillion dollars.   Now if the FED kept the interest rate at 0.1% America would pay interest of $18.560 billion each year.  But if the interest rate jumped to 15% as it did under Jimmy Carter, America would pay interest of $2.784 trillion each year.   Then America would no longer be able to buy every school dropout a new Apple phone every year and there could be rioting and looting in the cities.  Apple stock owes a lot to Obama.  So does the school drop-out rate.  Now students disrupt school by using Apple phone applications in class.  Schools sometimes need to hire law enforcers to remove those obnoxious students using their free Obama-Apple phones.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
            “As the CEO of a company that has been dealing with Obamacare for over three years, I’d like to set the record straight: The evidence that Obamacare is having a negative impact on hiring is unequivocal, abundant and consistent with common sense,” CKE Restaurants CEO Andrew Puzder. Wall Street Journal
http://www.wsj.com/articles/andy-puzder-shunning-obamacare-1421192654broke
            The OECD trimmed its global growth forecasts amid a "deeply concerning" slowdown in global trade and slower growth in emerging markets as economists urge the Chancellor to rethink cuts.  The world flirts with global recession as trade growth slows, warns the OECD.
 
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Saturday, November 7, 2015

November 7 The albedo effect is the effect of soot and other pollutants that stain the Arctic and Antarctic snow and causes the ice to melt at a lower temperature which has the same effect as global warming but without the global warming. Until 1991 the UN could find no human caused global warming effect in worldwide temperature data. The industrial revolutions had burned wood, coal, and peat to the point that twice London had thousands of casualties when temperature inversions created deadly smog. In the late 1800’s oil was exploited and the economies of the world began to grow rapidly. But world temperatures showed no global warming. In fact for periods of time as pollution increased there was extreme cold. So in 1991 a UN consensus was reached to throw out most of the temperature data prior to WWII.


            It is believed that the earth was created about 5 million years ago in a molten state and the earth cooled for millions of years of global cooling.  All the carbon in the form of coal and petroleum was obviously once in the atmosphere as CO2.   And just as obvious all the coral, limestone, and marble that exists today in the ground was also once in the atmosphere as CO2.  In fact the human race has put back into the atmosphere a mere spec of the carbon that the planet earth extracts from the atmosphere each year.  The UN decided in 1991 to throw out almost all the temperature data taken prior to WWII and thus there began the new religious faith of Global Warming.   Obama and Hilary just sacrificed the Keystone pipeline to their irrational god.

            Geothermal heat pumps are far better than solar electric heating from about Maryland on downward.   Only recently have solar electric panels even begun to produce more energy in their life of use than is wasted in their manufacture.   And the panels that extract heat are still fraught with leaks and still do not produce a net environmental benefit in northern states.


            Edward Teller started a petition to counter the pseudo-science-religion of global warming.  In PhD scientist signers alone, the project includes 15-times more scientists than are seriously involved in the United Nations IPCC process. The very large number of petition signers demonstrates that, if there is a consensus among American scientists, it is in opposition to the human-caused global warming hypothesis rather than in favor of it.

            Moreover, the current totals of 31,487 signers, including 9,029 PhDs, are limited only by Petition Project resources to contact scientists.   Only the Obama- Hilary “stupid party” requires party members also be members of their environmentalist religion.

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Monday, November 2, 2015

November 5 The broader NYSE and the Russell 2000 indices still say we are in a bear market that began in August. The high flying mini indexes are easily manipulated mostly in the way the stocks are selected and marketed. The recent DJI rise was done on such low volume that the important DJI cash flow index still says we are in a bear market even though the less reliable price index was bullish.

            Supertankers and container cargo ships have tanked as world trade plummets to the lowest levels first seen in 2009 under Obama’s administration of socialist hope and change.  Instead he gave the US a socialist fascist form of rule by executive orders.  Oil giants see no relief from the current low price of oil.  Tankers are now used to store the oil glut.  The energy glut is now expected to last until the second Obama recession bottoms out perhaps next year.  The stock market is now poised for the second leg of Obama’s second stock market plunge.  Obama is breaking all records for incompetent administration.  He is now sending in just 60 special forces to fight the 100,000 savage ISIS head-hunters.
            Yellen and Dudley said December is still on for a Fed rate hike.  That is a critically important action because the alternative is a world drift toward cascading currency devaluations that ultimately are contagious and would lead to hyperinflation of the type which allowed socialists Hitler and Stalin to rise and agree (Aug 23, 1939) to mutually invade and divide Poland.  That invasion triggered WWII.  Ultimately the socialists attacked each other allowing the Western Alliance to defeat Hitler.
Challenger Job Cuts Oct -14.0% down from 93.2%
Initial Unemployment Claims 10/31 276K up from 260K
Continuing Unemployment Claims 10/24 2163K up from 2144K
Productivity-Prel Q3 1.6% down from 3.5%
Unit Labor Costs-Prel Q3  rose 1.4% after declining -1.8% the last quarter.

            November 4   There is a common denominator to the world’s rolling crises and it is excessive corporate and government debt and not enough growth.   This is beyond the business cycle/inventory type recessions. This one is a 1930’s the deeper and longer type government incompetence and business balance sheet recession.   The incompetent Fed has dropped interest rates to almost zero allowing the incompetent Obama Administration to quadruple the US national debt.  Raising interest rates will make Obama’s government debt and corporate debt unmanageable.   Fed debt deleveraging will be deflationary on top of Obama’s destructive job killing policies.  That is why the U.S. is still growing at less than 2% real GDP, so low that the Fed will not be able to lift rates off zero in December as Yellen claims without disrupting the economy and markets.
            NASDAQ is market capital weighted which means the stocks are weighted more when overpriced.  The good NASDAQ deals are weighted less.  So when a stock doubles in price its share of the index is quadrupled.  This index is now close to the 4816 intraday high just before the Dot-Com bubble collapsed in year 2000.   In fact Amazon and Alphabet are the largest stocks by market cap today and are probably as overpriced as the worst bubble stocks in year 2000.
            Any objective economist would have to say that the American economy has been a disaster under the FED during the Obama administration.  Job growth has flat lined well below the level that existed before Obama.  This is further proof that the Obama unemployment index is optimistic because it does not reflect the fact that the new jobs are low paid part time hamburger helper types not jobs that require more than a grade school education.  The dropout rate and murder rate has doubled under Obama and now he is letting the hard core drug pushers out of jail free because Obama apparently does not know that the drug cartels murder the most people in the countries that do not throw them in jail.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate
            Factory orders fell -1.4% this month but they slyly revised last month down -0.3% knowing that no news would report it so that this month would look 0.3% better.  That is just one of the Obama gimmicks the stupid party government uses to hide their economic mismanagement.
            November 3   Jim Cramer admitted today that the stocks doing the best now are of the companies that are doing the worst in their recent quarterly reports.  Simply said, the cash flow into the market is money flowing from the novices to the smart money people who are using this opportunity to reduce holdings.   Soros just pulled out $500 million.  There is no sign of rational intelligence in the recent market rise.  Reports of American corporation losses and layoffs are increasing steadily.   US manufacturing is now growing at the lowest pace in over two years.
            Germany, the strongest European economy is beginning to show increased weakness.  In just the past six months Germany has begun to implode mostly due to the deepening Mideast crisis.
            November 2   Obama is destroying the black community with drug addiction and by the violence the drug pushers bring to black communities.  He is illegally freeing criminals by stupidly and criminally ignoring American laws established by the American judicial system.  He has used executive orders to usurp the powers the American Constitution gave the legislative branch of government.  Now he is irresponsibly putting violent drug pushers back on the streets destroying the American justice system that put those criminals in prison.  Obama had Eric Holder put thousands of guns on the streets in an attempt to discredit the National Rifle Association.  Now black on black murder has doubled and an estimated 30,000 Mexicans have also been murdered due to Obama’s “Fast and Furious” gun running to drug cartels.  Obama should be impeached.
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Monday, October 26, 2015

October 29 Yesterday, once again the two broader averages did not respond positively to FED double talk as did the three easily manipulated averages. On a cash flow basis almost all the money that flowed into the manipulated NASDAQ and SandP since August has recently flowed back into those manipulated indices. Yet the indicators themselves are all still below their highs because the manipulators took loses. To go much higher the manipulators of those indices will have to find new money to put in fast. We expect the economy and the stock market to tank even faster now under the “stupid Party.”

            Monopolistic mergers are now peaking under the blind eye of the “inept Obama administration.”  Election time is when the socialist turn a blind eye to monopolies because they are bought off with donations to their election campaigns.  That is how socialist corrupt crony capitalism works.   Later after elections the socialists will begin new investigations to fleece more illicit income.  That is how Putin lives like a Czar under Russian socialism.   You pay them or get cut off and persecuted.
            The distribution of wealth has actually has gotten much worse under the “stupid party.”  Ted Cruise pointed out that the income of the wealthiest 1% today, under the “stupid party,” is now proportionally more than the average worker’s income.  It broke the record in income inequality set in 1928.   Carly Fiorina pointed out that the number of women below the poverty level has increased 70% under Obama.  Obama’s socialist crony capitalism and wealth inequality has grown worse than it was before the Hover Recession in 1929 that preceded the FDR Great Depression in 1932.  Hilary Clinton of course would argue that this country needs Stalin’s socialist redistribution policies to have greater equality.   Of course they do not use the names of the socialists they admire.  And of course Hilary Clinton is correct because socialist policies lead to suppression of dissent, persecution of critics, and lead to equality of poverty.  That describes the Obama administration.
            Just this past week the Obama Justice Department forgave former IRS head Ms. Lerner, who persecuted “dissident” groups that had organization names that included patriot, Christian, Tea Party, or who just criticized Obama.   We at this blog were also targeted by the IRS then and cleared.  That is why we tripled down on our criticism of this administration.
            Last night some of the progressive presidential candidates suggested eliminating the Fed’s obsessive manipulation of money supply.  Americans could easily see that every one of the ten challenging candidates were far superior to the socialist competition.  Americans were surprised by the bias of the CNBC media after the media “Love Fest” at the boring and insipid “Stupid Party” debate.   That only hurts CNBC’s future viewership. The socialist controlled media has 14 times more viewers each time they show the new progressive party.
            October 28   It seems that manipulation of a small group of common stocks were responsible for the DJI, S&P, and Nasdaq passing through their 200DMAs yesterday while the broader NYSE and Russell 2000 did not.  But of course the market manipulators do not like to talk about the broader market indices they are harder to manipulate.   The same people who made the market go up will soon explain it dropping sharply again after they short their selected stocks that were hyped up to the limits of sanity.  The pundits are already spinning the bad news on anything the FED says this week.
Consumer confidence just dropped 5.5% and durable goods orders dropped 1.2% in September on top of the 2.3% decline in August.
         A reassessment of the Stupid Party’s GDP numbers for earlier this year shows that the annual rate of America’s economic growth was closer to 0.6% than Obama’s originally stated 2.4% growth.  In fact the US economy shrank at a 0.7% rate during the first quarter of 2015.  An estimated actual 0.6% current real annual growth rate is far below the 2.5% the FED wants before they raise interest rates and avoid a “Great Depression.”  An economic depression is the situation when FED interest rates hit zero.  Hyperinflation is when a “Banana Republic” has negative interest rates.  Obama’s apparent goal is to make America a banana republic like Nigeria and Indonesia where he got his Moslem education.   Obama and his “Stupid Party” lie and say religion and prayer was a small part of Obama’s life.  Anyone who has visited a Muslim nation knows the entire nation shuts down six times a day to say prayers (Fajr, Sunrise, Dhuhr, Asr, Maghrib, and Isha).   It is not a small part of education in Nigeria or Indonesia.  So all of the lying shows Obama and his government are still hiding his past.  Some day the truth will come out about all the  Obama-Clinton lies such as blaming the Libyan Embassy deaths of Americans on an innocent Jewish film maker who Obama/Clinton threw in jail violating his Constitutional rights and ignoring due process justice under American law.
        Home builders face a huge crisis looming in the near future.  Hovnanian’s market value peaked in 2005 and then declined 90% since then.  Its stock price declined 44% just this year as home builder debt puts many companies on the brink of bankruptcy.  The highly leveraged debt of most American companies is due to the Stupid Party’s deficit spending and monetary expansion.  Every time Congress tries to limit Obama’s spending Obama spends even more and then usually threatens to shut down the US Army and cut veteran’s hospital funds further.   The Stupid Party with its stupid President, candidates and Congressmen have driven American voters to beyond the brink of what American voters can tolerate.  Many stupid Republican incumbents will likely be driven out along with most of the “Stupid Party” in the coming years.   Americans are fed up with stupid, worthless, and abusive politicians, IRS, and other government employees who then go on to retire with outrageous benefits.
          October 27  Dr. Ben Carson’s is not an Evangelical.  His beliefs are based on a deep Seventh day Adventist faith with which most Americans disagree.  Seventh day Adventists are the people known to go door to door in the day ringing doorbells and are sometimes extreme and difficult to get to leave.  And other times they leave the neighbors angry because they tell them they are dammed for rejecting their last chance for salvation.   They are not Christian Evangelicals and most other people will not knowingly vote for a Seventh day Adventist even though Ben Carson perhaps the most sincere, honest, and intelligent of all the candidates.  And some people would not vote for him either because he says the universe was created in seven days some time between 6000 to 10,000 years ago.  Among other things, Ben Carson says that Satan is behind the Big Bang theory and the promotion of the theory of evolution.  His church also teaches that almost all evangelical Christians will join with Satan to oppose Jesus Christ.   Iowa is packed with evangelical Christians who will soon discover that Ben Carson is not one of them.   Therefore it is likely that Ben Carson’s popularity will fall off fast and he may not make it past the Iowa primary where he currently leads.
            Crude prices are still under pressure after two straight weeks of losses.  Some predict the glut will continue until 2017 with worries that the oversupply in oil products could even swell from unseasonably warm weather, economic recession, and the lengthening maintenance cycle for U.S. refineries.
            The 200DMA is still holding for the 2800 stock strong NYSE and for the broad Russell 2000.
           October 26   Today the market manipulators are now ready to reverse course as the market  indexes approach and hit the 200 Day Moving Averages which usually set the limits of bull and bear markets.  The 65DMA’s are the usual limits of the trading range within a bull or bear market while the 200DMA’s usually set the limits of bull and bear markets.   The market manipulators like Jim Crammer enhance the volatility of the markets by completely switching sides to reinforce pessimism in a bear market and the optimism in a bull market.  That is why they are detrimental to small investors and helpful to hedge funds and other manipulators.   We have just had 4 weeks of advances within the bear market that began when the 200DMA was broken in August and the bear market began.  Almost on queue the WSJ also flipped from positive to negative news today.  Today the WSJ said that US firms are warning about the slowdown in the American economy.  And while recently the manipulators were bullish and only quoted Apartment RE because private home building was down, today it is announced that Sam Zell is selling his apartment investments.  The manipulators get into markets and pump them up with optimism and then sell their stocks and bad mouth the same sectors that a week earlier were pumped up as good buys.  Today New Home Sales for Sept were reported at 468K down 18% nationally from 552K last month.
      The reality is the economy topped out over the last year and investments are now in a bear market.  Squawk Box is not just useless it is dangerously wrong and misleading.  Those enticed to buy during these past four weeks will soon panic and head for the exits again.  
       Bloomberg announced on this AM that recent polls show that 7 in 10 Americans believe Trump can beat the prevaricator/security risk Clinton and 6 in 10 think even Carlson could beat her.  
     Pat Buchanan has been attacked for exposing the fact that Pelosi and both Bill and Hilary Clinton have supported NAMBLA and the NAMBLA goal is to legislate “Children’s Rights” in the USA to supersede “parental rights” down eventually from age 16 to the age of “8 or its too late”.   That would legalize pedophilia similar to how it is legalized down to the age of nine under Sharia law.  Buchanan has been an honest straight talker for many years and was pointing out that the Democrats labeled a Republican NAMBLA member, Foley, a predator while saying Democrat pedophiles are just victims of bigots.   The new CEO’s of Walmart and Apple also support the NAMBLA objectives.
       Walmart hits a tail spin as their First Amendment opposition deter shoppers and hair-brained management ideas cause increasing losses.   They cut staff, hours, inventory, and now selection options to offset losses since their CEO attacked and threatened to boycott individual states like Indiana that were supporting the US Constitution’s first Amendment right of business people to boycott NAMBLA related functions.   The immature CEO can’t focus on the business and still wants to play with toys.
          We would not recommend investing in the following companies until their CEOs responsible for their attack on religious freedom apologize or are removed.   A massive consumer boycott of their products will likely grow and grow and grow as long as these corporations are perceived to ignorantly or stupidly oppose the religious freedom of American’s to oppose groups associated with pedophilia.
1. Apple
2. Walmart
3. Yelp
4. Salesforce
5. Angie's List
6. Eli Lilly
7. Gap
8. Levi's
9. Twitter
10. Anthem
11. Nike
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Saturday, October 17, 2015

October 24 Friday was an interesting case of legal market manipulation. Many market analysts use the 65 DMA as a tool to buy and sell so the market makers put in buy and sell orders above the 65 DMAs of many stocks so prices gapped up on very little cash flow or volume when the stock market opened. That caused buy signals to be triggered and the market makers sold their stocks the entire day at gapped up premium prices. They were careful to restrict their selling so as to maintain the initial gap rise for the entire day. They usually like to do that until the buyers run out of cash and then they let the market plummet until the market makers decide to buy back in. They love to drive novice investors and fund managers to despair to get volatility higher because the market makers profit from each swing in prices. Since the market makers concentrated on certain stocks the market indices were not all affected. In fact the NYSE and the Russell 2000 did not break out at all. The DJI and Nasdaq were the most affected Friday.

        October 23   Breaking 65DayMovingAverage trend lines is very common.  Typically a bear market skips downward along its 65DMA.   Breaking the 200DMA is much more significant and was one of the recent sell signals.  The NYSE and Russell 2000 are still below their 65 DMA trend lines.  The Nasdaq has reached it in both in price and cash flow.  The DJI penetrated the 65DMA but its cash flow 65DMA was well below.  The SandP penetrated the 65DMA in both price and cash flow.   To be an indication of a chartist buy signal they would all have to penetrate and stay above the 65DMA and then break above the 200DMA.   One explanation given for today’s rally on CNBC closing  bell was that the rally was primarily in weak stocks that had been driven down all year and it was not a rally of the stronger stocks that recently gave the sell signal.    Any stock market rally is an invitation to sell stocks or go short.
Building Permits Sep 1103K down from 1170K
Initial Claims 10/17 increased to 259K from 255K last week
Continuing Claims 10/10 increased to 2170K from 2158K last week
FHFA Housing Price Index Aug fell to 0.3% from 0.6% last month
Leading Indicators Sep fell to -0.2% from 0.1% last month
Caterpillar, the bell weather for the world economy, is struggling with declining demand. It has slashed its outlook for equipment used in mining and oil drilling and has cut its forecast for full-year earnings and reaffirmed its expectation that sales would fall in 2016 for a fourth consecutive year.
       If you go back to this blog when the Benghazi terrorist attack happened you will see we were the first to point out that a Jewish filmmaker was in no way responsible for the attack and that his Constitutional rights were violated and he was illegally imprisoned to create a cover up for the fact that Hilary Clinton was responsible for the security breach of their Embassy.  Hillary cannot lead because she never takes responsibility for anything because she does not learn from experience.
           October 21  On their price basis, all the indices we follow have stalled at their 65 day moving averages.   On their cash flow basis the DJI, the Russell 2000, and the NYSE have not yet even reached their 65 dma.   There has been no breakout over several days.  We predict that intelligent investors will at minimum liquidate long market positions for cash and build short positions very soon.  Shorting will be very profitable and Hedge funds will likely join in the shorting as they did in the past.  It is almost November and the bear market is still on our predicted path to bottom some time between January and March of 2016.   This bear market will be different from the past because near zero FED rates have resulted in very high leverage and many past conservative investments could be dragged under.  But what if the 65 DMA is broken on the upside?  That is what many people are hoping for.  But with earnings reports turning into dismal loss reports why would the market go up now? 
            October 20  Banks are beginning to admit that they have unwisely invested in the stock market just as they had before the 1929 and 1932 stock market crashes.  We now have an Obama stupid party $18 Trillion dollar national debt and a $4.25 in “stupid party” FED QE debt.  Obama and the stupid party have spent more than the cost of World War II and have accomplished nothing except they are bankrupting Social Security and giving away all the earned wealth of current American workers and seniors.   They continue to give away earned wealth to people who never worked at all or have phony claims of injuries and disabilities which under the “stupid party” have run up at 400% of the pre-Obama era.  Meanwhile incompetent financial engineering of mergers and acquisitions have provided thousands of opportunities for stupid and incompetent politicians and crony capitalists to ferret away much of America’s wealth in stocks and debt investments which will soon go belly-up and bankrupt America.   That is how the incompetent politicians and their socialist crony capitalists have set up not just America but the entire world on a path to bankruptcy and chaos and war. 
       Most Americans can see what Obama and his stupid, lethargic, and incompetent party have done worldwide.  That is why Americans are angry and fed up with the stupid people who are made professors and then they give bright students F’s if they don’t write and say the stupid politically correct things the “stupid party” socialists demand.  Today our brightest students have to deliver the stupid party nonsense to get A’s from the incompetent and stupid teachers.  One stupid politician pretended she was a Cherokee Indian so she could steal a Harvard professor’s seat from a real Cherokee.  And she is considered among the most qualified of today’s stupid party politicians who claim they are helping minorities while they steal the jobs of minorities and actually have pushed minority poverty back to the levels of 25 years ago.   
         Home starts and permits are down almost about 50% from the level in 2006 when the Obama/Frank Countrywide Corporation liar loans for unqualified home buyers started to go sour.  As a result there are fewer minorities owning homes now than before the Obama/Frank created their liar loans.  But apartment housing is doing well because poverty is growing and fewer people can afford a home.
Manufacturing and services peaked two years ago and are starting down again.
Retail sales have been declining for four years.  Yet the “stupid party” declares a new imaginary economic success every week.  Americans want an intelligent and honest government again.
            October 17  In 1964 the pollsters reported that 77% of all Americans thought the American government was mostly to completely trustworthy.  That was mostly due to President Eisenhower and President Kennedy.  By 2012 it had completely reversed and only 22% of Americans thought the American government was mostly to completely trustworthy.  That was mostly due to President Clinton and President Obama after Wako, Ruby Ridge, Monika, Hilary abandoning the Libyan Embassy,  Obama’s ordering the IRS harassment of Republicans and Christian fundamentalists, and Obama’s ASA spying on and trying to frame American journalists and potential opponents such as Governor Christy .  Now it is even worse due to Hilary and Obama abandoning Americans and our allies abroad to terrorists. The Clintons even build self serving charities funded mostly by foreigners, many from Communist China and the Mideast.  
         It has become obvious from Hispanic primary support, that Trump will take the majority of the Hispanic vote as things stand today and Hilary will have an historic election defeat.  The American Hispanic community came to America to escape the poverty of socialism and the horror of criminal drug dealer mutilators and torturers.   Most Anglo-Americans don’t know how the Mexican drug traffickers used deranged children to mutilate citizens who opposed them but the American Hispanic community will never forget that.  The American Hispanic community wants the Mexican criminal illegal’s deported even if all illegal immigrants need to be reprocessed.  Hillary Clinton will be lucky if she gets 22% of the Hispanic vote and VP Joe Biden knows that.   Joe Biden must decide if he will try to save the “Stupid Party” and make it an intelligent Democrat Party again or if he will allow Hilary Clinton’s record to come out and disgrace his party again and again.
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Tuesday, October 13, 2015

October 15 The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude oil oversupply grew by 7.6 million barrels last week, a very bearish sign for the oil market. The latest EIA data add to recent reports from International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that supply is still at near-record levels and that demand is showing due to the recession. Light, sweet crude for November delivery settled down to $46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent, the global benchmark, to $48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The rally last week was just another manipulation based on rumors.

MBA Mortgage Index 10/10 fell -27.6%
The Produce Price Index in Sep fell -0.5%  a growing sign of economic depression the opposite of inflation.
Retail Sales ex-auto for Sep fell -0.3% 
Empire (NY) Manufacturing Oct fell -11.4
Crude Inventories 10/10 doubled to 7.562M
Industrial production remains in the Obama slump.
The Bears have just overtaken the bulls
The NYSE MACD continues to plunge
            October 14    The energy price spike and slump manipulation has been hurting speculators who believe the market manipulators who profit buying the stocks after a slump and then predict a price recovery selling back at higher prices to their fool-followers have bought back in.   They drive up the energy stocks and then dump.  Even Wells Fargo took a hit speculating.  Energy prices will not rise significantly until this recession bottoms out next year. 
         On page A2 of the WSJ they have graphs that explain the current credit crunch.  Effective US interest rates hit -3% last year because the FED rate was close to 0% and the inflation rate went over 3%.  That was an incentive for excessive borrowing and spending and for going into enormous destabilizing US leverage and debt.   At the same time things were even worse abroad causing the US Dollar to soar 20% and hurting US exports doubly.  As interest rates approached zero the banks and the FED lost the ability to further stimulate the economy.  This is the same as the situation under FDR in 1932 when the stock market collapsed and there were runs on the banks not like when Obama was elected but because there simply was not sufficient money in circulation to meet demand.  When interest rates are negative corporations are better off putting the cash in the vault than putting it in the bank where you get back less than you put in.  When a credit economy collapses the hard currency skyrockets in purchasing power because it is very scarce.   Catch22 is the fact the FED is now being trapped because it did not raise rates earlier.
            The lowest cost “content provider” will survive.  NETFLIX stands to be wiped out within the next decade as the competition increases and the creators of content demand a fair share.
       As we predicted, Obama and his “Stupid Party” lied.  “Obama Crappycare”  will cost much more than America’s “best in the world” free enterprise health care system has.  Rates will be double shortly after the 2016 election, and doctors are now retiring in record numbers meaning there will be an army of “third world” incompetent doctors and assistants replacing Americans.   Costs will more than double for the same level of care American free enterprise has provided.  This is just another ignorant third world “Stupid Party” result similar to the third world socialism that destroyed Russia, China, and Eastern Europe.  China and Eastern Europe are making progress with free enterprise and diminishing socialism.   Obama Crappycare is almost as stupid as Hilary’s ideas of tribal parenting rather than parenting with a caring mother and father.  Fatherless families are the primary cause academic failure and poverty in America.
        During the last Clinton administration Hilary was out championing ignorant third world children’s rights over the parent’s right to protect their children.  Hilary wanted 12 year old children to have the right to disobey and leave their parents at age 12 while NAMBLA was advocating that children down to age 8 have the right to chose to be sex objects of adults as one NAMBLA founder, a notorious Boston priest, and the most backward Polynesian tribes advocate.  Moslems in the Mid East are stricter than the “stupid party” and only permit adult sex with children down to age nine.  About two decades before Hilary Clinton’s youth rights campaign, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller’s son was eaten by the cannibal tribe he tried to study in Indonesia.  But that did not dissuade Hilary Clinton from writing her book hoping to pander to ignorant Americans and to encourage stupid people to vote for her third world ignorant “Stupid Party”.  In her book she said it took a tribe to educate a child, not the mother and father teams of civilized nations.  But NAMBLA wanted even more.  NAMBLA invented the phrase “By eight or it’s too late;” and sought a children’s legal right to have an adult sex partner by age eight when many children living in drives are first raped.  That is consistent with the “Stupid Party’s” method for reducing American crime simply by declare crimes like drug trafficking legal and letting all the social parasites and bullies out of jail early to prey on Americans again. 
          That is why many religious groups do not want to serve people like the CEO’s of Walmart and others who might one day ask Christians and Jews to serve them at one of their “NAMBLA events.”  The CEO’s of the following companies should be fired for wasting stockholder money supporting NAMBLA objectives.  The best way would be for everyone to boycott these companies not the US “religious free” communities that those company CEOs said they would boycott.  No one can force you to buy the stocks or products of the morally corrupt.  The CEO’s of Apple, Walmart, Yelp, Salesforce, Angie's List, Eli Lilly, Gap, Levi's, Twitter, Anthem, and Nike want parents and churches constitutional rights restricted when it comes to protecting their children.   They advocate the laws of the primitive tribes like “Sodom and Gomorrah” or ISIS where it was or still is legal to regularly abuse children.  The “Stupid Party” and ISIS both want to neutralize the rights of Christians and Jews.  That is why stupid people and bigots support the “Stupid Party” policies, but informed minorities, democrats, and independents are abandoning the “Stupid Party” in this next election.  Americans plan the throw the “Stupid Party” out in a landslide and investigate the wiretap surveillance and other predatory and disruptive crimes committed by the Obama IRS, and his Attorney General and administration.
            October 14  Jim Cramer officially has gone on record yesterday saying the stock market is about to experience severe pain based on his cyclic indicators.  For a year now we have predicted that by the end of October 2015 Jim Crammer would recognize the bear market had arrived.  Unfortunately it is a little too late to beat the stampede to the exit.  The last one out of the funds takes the greatest loss.  He also said what we have said for almost a year, that China’s bull market has been just another manipulation.
        Walmart, the worst performing stock in the DJI was responsible for 30% of the decline of the DJI today.  It is one of the corporations with a CEO that put NAMBLA ahead of the Constitutional right of Freedom of Religion.  The Boston priest who raped more than 50 alter boys was a founder of NAMBLA. 
            October 13  Why doesn’t Obama just resign and let Biden take over?
            Fortress Investment Group has shut down its flagship macro hedge fund a situation facing most hedge funds and only getting worse in a country where an incompetent president tells the world that the Department of Environment Protection’s goals are a more important concern than America’s National Security.  Obama now even argues that leadership on climate change is more important than leadership to combat terrorism. 
            Many funds will fold once investors are burned because most Funds can burry their losses until they are in a hopeless withdrawal situation.  Redemptions are what force funds and everyone else to recognize all the buried hidden losses.   Similarly a homeowner in a neighborhood that has seen a 25% reduction in home prices does not write down the loss until his house is sold.  And by the same token, almost all investors in funds now have unrealized losses that will not be exposed until other investors begin to take all remaining profits from previous market appreciation.  The last investors holding the bag will end up taking most of the losses as the stampede to the exit begins.
            The WSJ is beginning to warn that the feeble 6-year economic recovery could be over.  The low interest rate loans have been gobbled up by incompetent CEOs just as foolish, inexperienced and impoverished people gobbled up unaffordable houses in 2006 2007, and 2008 with the Obama-Dodd-Frank low interest 3yr mortgage loans and caused the collapse of Countrywide, Fannie and Freddie Mai and led to Obama’s recession.  Of course the incompetent Obama administration has consistently blamed that collapse of the Obama-Dodd-Frank housing bubble and leveraged banks on President George bush because Obama can never admit the truth.  Obama can be credited with creating the first American “Junk Economy.”  Why doesn’t Obama resign and let Biden take over?
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Monday, October 5, 2015

October 9 The ignorance within the “Stupid Party” is at an all time new high. The collapse of the American economy under FDR in 1932-33 was due to the turmoil of the stock market in 1929 and FDR’s 90% stock market crash in 1932 because world banks lost most of their money in the worldwide stock market crashes. So the Glass-Steagall Act was passed which then made it illegal for banks to invest in the stock market. The stock market was fine from 1934 until Stupid Party President Clinton made it legal again for banks to speculate in the stock market in 1998. Now the stupid party is running the banks and they have already begun buying stocks starting at the bubble prices of early this September and plan to buy more just as the stock market is now beginning to implode. They think that will inflate the stock market bubble but it in fact will only discredit the banks and ultimately cause another 1933 type worldwide economic depression that led to National and International socialism and to a world war. Over 100 million lives were lost in that period. Americans have to get these “Stupid Party” crony capitalist socialists out of power before they completely destroy our national competency and turn us into a third rate economy.

            October 8    Last week the market manipulators were successful at talking up the price of oil so they could sell and take profits before the truth came out today that the oil glut has hit new records.  The world wide recession/depression is only beginning and will not end until we elect a competent US president again and a competent Congress.  The markets will rally once Americans realize the Stupid Party Socialists have been shammed out of existence for their crony capitalism corruption.  The Clinton selfish charities of influence and graft will have to go out of business first.
            Yesterday the market’s third attempt to break out on the up side ran out of steam as cash flow increases each time the market retreats between breakout attempts.  Most of the action was from the slight recovery of drug stocks. That third attempt to bounce back failed yesterday.  This has gone on for a month.  Meanwhile it is getting harder for American companies to grow revenue when the percentage of people in the world who are working is shrinking more rapidly each month.  The WSJ reported that sales of US debt peaked then fell in mid 2011, went negative in 2013 and now are selling off already at twice the leveling 2013.  This fact correlates with the sharp market sell offs in each of 2011 and 2013.  The WSJ did not show data for 2007-2008 to see if it correlates with the recession as well.  The dollar is now being dumped on foreign markets.  Hold on to your hats.
            Hilary came out against Obama’s sell-out Pacific trade pack which indicates Obama will be supporting Biden and Biden will probably announce he is running on Monday.
            We reported weeks ago that most of the people in the recent Moslem invasion of Europe were of ISIS age.  It turns out that over 80% are men between the ages of 18 and 48 just like the ISIS terrorists.  Can you imagine the size of the potential terrorist threat Germany will have if the terrorists among them all attack when given a signal?
            We reported that an officer was being kicked out of the US Army for beating up an Afghan who was raping a little boy.  The Army is now allowing him to try to have his record cleared.
October 7  The International Monetary Fund now predicts and warns of a rising risk of a global slump similar to what occurred with the 2007-2008 credit crises.   The US balance of trade has plummeted in the latest months because prices in other countries are declining with their economies.   The stock markets have failed thus far to reach their previous bounce high and are still well below their 65 day moving averages.  That means there is no evidence so far that the current market decline will end any time soon.
      This week another “Stupid Party idiot” on MSNBC proudly said that 100,000 new jobs each month will keep the Obama “Stupid Party” unemployment number at about 5%.   But Obama’s “Stupid Party” unemployment number is actually more than 20% now because Obama’s “Stupid Party” unemployment insurance does not count any unemployed person who is no longer eligible for unemployment payments, or who is living on welfare, or a man with a woman living on welfare who supports him.   300,000 new jobs each month is needed to keep America at full employment with our current population.
       October 6   The various American stock markets would have to close 2% to 3% higher just to hit their current resistance levels.  The volume on Monday’s advance weakened and would have to increase at least 5% to show any conviction.  We see this coming upside resistance level as probably the last halfway decent opportunity to get into cash or short because the bulls have now succeeded in pulling the wool over the economic reporter’s eyes.  Today they pulled out all their bullish experts to claim new highs are around the corner.  We estimate the next major move will be at least 15% down from the upside resistance level we are swiftly approaching.
 
October 5   The historical experience of socialist countries has sadly demonstrated that collectivism does not do away with alienation but rather increases it, adding to it a lack of basic necessities and economic inefficiency.  Pope John Paul II
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