Monday, November 2, 2015

November 5 The broader NYSE and the Russell 2000 indices still say we are in a bear market that began in August. The high flying mini indexes are easily manipulated mostly in the way the stocks are selected and marketed. The recent DJI rise was done on such low volume that the important DJI cash flow index still says we are in a bear market even though the less reliable price index was bullish.

            Supertankers and container cargo ships have tanked as world trade plummets to the lowest levels first seen in 2009 under Obama’s administration of socialist hope and change.  Instead he gave the US a socialist fascist form of rule by executive orders.  Oil giants see no relief from the current low price of oil.  Tankers are now used to store the oil glut.  The energy glut is now expected to last until the second Obama recession bottoms out perhaps next year.  The stock market is now poised for the second leg of Obama’s second stock market plunge.  Obama is breaking all records for incompetent administration.  He is now sending in just 60 special forces to fight the 100,000 savage ISIS head-hunters.
            Yellen and Dudley said December is still on for a Fed rate hike.  That is a critically important action because the alternative is a world drift toward cascading currency devaluations that ultimately are contagious and would lead to hyperinflation of the type which allowed socialists Hitler and Stalin to rise and agree (Aug 23, 1939) to mutually invade and divide Poland.  That invasion triggered WWII.  Ultimately the socialists attacked each other allowing the Western Alliance to defeat Hitler.
Challenger Job Cuts Oct -14.0% down from 93.2%
Initial Unemployment Claims 10/31 276K up from 260K
Continuing Unemployment Claims 10/24 2163K up from 2144K
Productivity-Prel Q3 1.6% down from 3.5%
Unit Labor Costs-Prel Q3  rose 1.4% after declining -1.8% the last quarter.

            November 4   There is a common denominator to the world’s rolling crises and it is excessive corporate and government debt and not enough growth.   This is beyond the business cycle/inventory type recessions. This one is a 1930’s the deeper and longer type government incompetence and business balance sheet recession.   The incompetent Fed has dropped interest rates to almost zero allowing the incompetent Obama Administration to quadruple the US national debt.  Raising interest rates will make Obama’s government debt and corporate debt unmanageable.   Fed debt deleveraging will be deflationary on top of Obama’s destructive job killing policies.  That is why the U.S. is still growing at less than 2% real GDP, so low that the Fed will not be able to lift rates off zero in December as Yellen claims without disrupting the economy and markets.
            NASDAQ is market capital weighted which means the stocks are weighted more when overpriced.  The good NASDAQ deals are weighted less.  So when a stock doubles in price its share of the index is quadrupled.  This index is now close to the 4816 intraday high just before the Dot-Com bubble collapsed in year 2000.   In fact Amazon and Alphabet are the largest stocks by market cap today and are probably as overpriced as the worst bubble stocks in year 2000.
            Any objective economist would have to say that the American economy has been a disaster under the FED during the Obama administration.  Job growth has flat lined well below the level that existed before Obama.  This is further proof that the Obama unemployment index is optimistic because it does not reflect the fact that the new jobs are low paid part time hamburger helper types not jobs that require more than a grade school education.  The dropout rate and murder rate has doubled under Obama and now he is letting the hard core drug pushers out of jail free because Obama apparently does not know that the drug cartels murder the most people in the countries that do not throw them in jail.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=nonfarmprivate
            Factory orders fell -1.4% this month but they slyly revised last month down -0.3% knowing that no news would report it so that this month would look 0.3% better.  That is just one of the Obama gimmicks the stupid party government uses to hide their economic mismanagement.
            November 3   Jim Cramer admitted today that the stocks doing the best now are of the companies that are doing the worst in their recent quarterly reports.  Simply said, the cash flow into the market is money flowing from the novices to the smart money people who are using this opportunity to reduce holdings.   Soros just pulled out $500 million.  There is no sign of rational intelligence in the recent market rise.  Reports of American corporation losses and layoffs are increasing steadily.   US manufacturing is now growing at the lowest pace in over two years.
            Germany, the strongest European economy is beginning to show increased weakness.  In just the past six months Germany has begun to implode mostly due to the deepening Mideast crisis.
            November 2   Obama is destroying the black community with drug addiction and by the violence the drug pushers bring to black communities.  He is illegally freeing criminals by stupidly and criminally ignoring American laws established by the American judicial system.  He has used executive orders to usurp the powers the American Constitution gave the legislative branch of government.  Now he is irresponsibly putting violent drug pushers back on the streets destroying the American justice system that put those criminals in prison.  Obama had Eric Holder put thousands of guns on the streets in an attempt to discredit the National Rifle Association.  Now black on black murder has doubled and an estimated 30,000 Mexicans have also been murdered due to Obama’s “Fast and Furious” gun running to drug cartels.  Obama should be impeached.
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