Monday, November 30, 2015

Dec 4, 2015 The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October as exports fell to a three-year low. The deficit contributed to the decline in economic growth in the fourth quarter. Exports fell 1.4 percent to the lowest level since October 2012. Exports of goods were the lowest since June 2011. Food exports were the lowest since March 2012, while exports of industrial supplies and materials were the lowest in five years. Petroleum exports hit their lowest level since December 2010. The Commerce Department concluded that the trade gap increased 3.4 percent to $43.9 billion, a sign that the worst of the drag from a stronger dollar is far from over.

Trade Balance Oct -$43.9B down from -$42.5B in October
Unemployment Rate Nov 5.0% flat lined in October
Average Workweek Nov 34.5 down from 34.6 hrs in October
Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 211K down sharply from 298K in October in spite of holiday hiring.
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov 197K down sharply from 304K in October
The stock market pundits puffed up the payroll reports to deceive (as usual) small investors who do not do enough research.  Read Reuter’s bullshit about a solid U.S. employment report supports a Fed December rate hike.  We favor a rate hike but not the false information from the pundits.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0TN0AY20151204#lcSw1TQP8lz5IEdR.97
           Dec 2, 2015   France has determined that profiling of terrorists is necessary and France is now using emergency powers to shut down Moslem Mosques that have been nurturing Islamic terrorists.  Finally the world is beginning to realize that Islamic Terrorism is not a religion but a mental disease.  Groups that rape, or beat, or kill women, children, and members of true religions are criminally insane and will no longer be tolerated or be granted freedom to teach or to proselytize in France.  People in other western nations are now considering following the leadership of France.  Terrorist groups will not be free to lie and claim they have anything to do with God or a religion.
        As we predicted, oil prices have plummeted to new lows as the world sinks into economic recession and corporate leverage and government deficits are beginning to sink all the major economies of the world.   The new crude oil target price is $35/barrel.  This could be the Great Obama Depression that will be the way the world remembers Obama and Hilary.  America used to be a smart leader.  Now everyone knows the brains of the “Stupid Party” have fallen out of their “open mind.”  It is time for a change and for the enormous incompetent Washington establishment to be laid off instead of American workers.
          Here is how we end the illegal use of guns without affecting hunters, collectors, and patriots.  Test every gun before it can be sold and every gun already sold to determine the rifling marks on the fired bullets and create the FBI file.  Make it a crime to tamper with the rifling of any gun.  Make it a crime to possess a gun with no rifling or tampered rifling.  Only people contemplating crimes would object to this forensic identification.  Real hunters and patriots would not object.   The cost would be covered by a tax on the gun manufacturers. Next require that new gun holders be trained in gun safety and all former and new gun holders learn the new requirements and all pass a psychological test of mental competence.  The training should be done by the regional police department and be part of the person’s record.    In addition, each new licensee must be certified as competent by the person giving the course and test.   Trainers lose their certification if two former students are arrested for gun law violations.  It is the duty of the trainer to refuse to certify and to report all students trained and that they deemed competent.   It would be a crime for a trainer to willfully pass a convicted criminal or a certifiably incompetent student. 
 
Dec 2, 2015   None of the broad market indices have recovered from the August 24 stampede out of the stock market.  They have all failed to break out above their 200 day moving averages.  The latest rally has failed again.  Top that off with the oil glut is using up all its storage capacity and prices are dropping again because OPEC has not reduced production.  Unless OPEC reduces production or the ISIS oil fields are bombed, oil prices are heading lower.  Shutting down US shale oil production is not helping the world glut because the US consumes most of the US production.  The problem is that South America is going bankrupt and must sell their oil to eat.  OPEC must close wells or let prices drop until they shut down some production.
      Jim Crammer was still saying buy-buy-buy yesterday.  Very soon most investors will see how worthless his advice has been and will be telling him by, by.
      The Institute for Supply Management said that U.S. factory activity in November fell to the lowest level since 2009.  That gauge of manufacturing activity fell to 48.6 from 50.1 in October, slipping into contraction territory for the first time since 2012. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.  This recession will be a full Obama recession that will unwind over $18Trillion in his wasted deficit spending.  The stupid party spent the money on themselves, food stamps, free cell phones, increasing crime and fraud, and almost none of the deficit went to fixing infrastructure, creating jobs, or national security.  The stupid party has given the USA into a decaying corrupt third world government.
     The IEA Chief reiterated Forecast for Oil rising to $80 again in two years well after the recession bottoms in 2016.  “NEW YORK—Oil prices will start climbing in 2017.”  Many predict a low of $30 before the stock market bottoms.  We have hit $40 already and we predict we have about four months to hit this next bottom.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-chief-reiterates-forecast-for-80-oil-1448998588
           Dec 1, 2015  Trump’s Campaign Manager Accused Media of Suppressing Proof of Cheering Muslims on 9/11.  People forget that the Moslem community in NJ had a prominent religious leader who was put in jail when a group he proselytized tried to blow up a Trade Tower in 1993 with a truck loaded with explosives brought in from NJ.   People forget that Moslems abroad cheered on 911.  Anyone saying they saw a thousand Moslem’s cheering on 9/11 is guilty of hyperbolae.  But in truth is there were probably tens of thousands all around the world cheering.  Anyone who doesn’t believe that is stupid and should join the “stupid party” if they are not already a member.  ISIS alone had at least 100,000 cheering the news of the attack in Paris.  The Stupid Party does not win points minimizing the threat of Islamic terrorisms everywhere.  You don’t see any prominent Moslem leaders in the US or Europe publicly condemning the Islamic terrorism probably because they are afraid and know the threat is real to them and their families if they betray the cause.
       The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in November a three-year low in activity in China’s manufacturing sector.  A reading below 50 points implies a contraction in activity on a monthly basis.
        Nov 30, 2015  On Friday, the Chinese stock market fell more than 5 percent, registering its greatest one-day decline in more than three years as China reported a 4.6 percent drop in profits of industrials.   The NYSE Breadth index gauges the direction of the overall market by calculating the number of companies advancing relative to the number declining.  A trending disproportional number of declining securities as we are seeing confirms the bearish momentum.
        The US trade balance is deteriorating again due to the strength of the dollar.  Trump said that if he were president he would encourage the pulling back of overseas American investments to make America more competitive and shift corporate taxes to the European type sales tax in order to tax imports and consumption rather than American innovation and profits.
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