New nonfarm Payrolls in March were at only88K, collapsed from 236K. Nonfarm Private Payroll increase in March was only 95K, collapsed from 246K. These variations make little common sense. We believe the job rate was never as good as Obama has claimed. Unemployment Rate March down to 7.6%?? It got better from 7.7%?? This method of reporting makes no common sense and is a numbers game that depends on how long the unemployed get their unemployment benefits. They have to look for a job to stay listed as unemployed and getting benefits. But when they run out of benefits they stop looking for a job and then they are not counted as unemployed. They join almost 3 million unemployed people that Obama is no longer counting. As we have been warning we have a QE3 bubble and it is bursting or about to burst. True Obama unemployment is closer to 15% now. In Europe they claim 12% average unemployment but the honest numbers are more than 20% and new college graduates in some places are at 40% unemployment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week, suggesting the economic recovery is no longer responding to the FED flooding the stock market with credit. None of it is getting to real businesses other than brokers and bankers who have been giving themselves record bonuses since the Obama bailout of banks began. Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K. 

Only manipulated American stock market indices have set new all-time highs.  And if they did not always set new highs the manipulators would be fired for not doing their jobs.  How is the manipulation done?  That is very easy.   First you start with a diverse small portfolio of the best stocks in each industry.  That alone says it will outperform the average market.  You remove the buggy whip stocks when the car replaces the buggy.   There are three phases of growth, the slow start-up phase, the full growth phase and finally the mature to obsolescent phase.  Apple is entering the mature to obsolescent phase due to the loss of its creative force Steve Jobs.  Perhaps they will be replaced Apple soon by a growth technology 3-D print start-up firm.  GE bought one already as GE and UTC and other technology companies acquire growth technologies to maintain their growth.  Broader markets such as the NYSE are a better indication of the true economy and they all say the US economy is slipping along with the rest of the world and is being set up now for a big 10% to 20% correction.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20%2Ce50&a=m26-12-9&c=

‘The Great Deformation’ by David A. Stockman. 768 pages is a good honest buy.  Last week at record manipulate market highs he said, “The stock market is now where it was 13 years ago. And what’s happened in the past 13 years? Only 2 million jobs created, 17,000 per month, when we’ve needed 150,000 per month. We’re so far gone.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/01/david-stockman-on-the-great-deformation-and-our-economic-doom.html

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/367134/december-02-2010/david-stockman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHgnavl_tw

 

Copper production is the source of most silver because silver is a major by-product of copper production.  The price of copper reached an eight-month low in London as worse-than-estimated European economic figures and slumping car sales fueled concern about demand prospects when stockpiles of the metal are the highest since 2003.  That means copper production will be reduced and therefore the scarcer silver supplies will decline faster.

 

Stockton was one of three cities that filed for bankruptcy in California last year.  San Bernardino was first declaring more than $1 billion in liabilities in the first of what will be many court filings. Mammoth Lakes also filed.  A federal judge ruled Monday that Stockton is eligible for bankruptcy protection, despite the objection of creditors who say they would like to sell off some of Stockton’s assets first.
 

Bernanke is bound to repeat the FED bubble disasters of the recent past.  The FED did not see the bubble that they inflated from 2005 until 2008.  The FED is clueless as to how their quantitative easing is inflating a stock market bubble and an Obama entitlement debt bubble that will likely cause rioting in American cities like in 1969 when this FED bubble bursts.  And given the past history of FED miscalculations this bubble will burst within about a year unless they stop inflating it.  The FED seems blind to the money coming to America to escape socialism and communism.  When the Bernanke bubble bursts all that money will flee from America and American banks will go bust again.  This time however America will be up to the eyeballs with Obama debt and there will be nothing left to stimulate. 

Obama has been hollowing out the American economy cutting the vital services and infrastructure such as national defense and hydrocarbon energy and subsidizing uneconomically sustainable energy sources, expanding welfare, and creating a debt that will cause an economic collapse when Obama debt bankrupts America.   This Bernanke bubble will burst within a year or two.  The Obama debt already exceeds the American debt of the entire WWII. 

Service industries expanded in March at the slowest pace in seven months and companies added fewer workers than forecast, indicating a slowing of US Growth.

From an historical perspective gold could exceed 1750/oz within 12 months.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/W?anticache=1364055809

From an historical perspective silver could exceed 34/oz within 12 months.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV_/W?anticache=1364056143

 

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel is losing support for conversion from Atomic Energy to renewable-power expansion, undermining her $700 billion program to replace all atomic reactors by 2022 and triple renewables’ share by 2050.

China has begun to explore fracking and has more natural gas resources than any country in the world.

America is installing a missile defense system on Guam pointing at N Korea.  Also satellites have been relocated to help shoot down N. Korean aircraft if required.  Obama sets up a team to eliminate the leaders of the latest world terrorism threats.

Bond yields in France to Austria slid as retail sales declined.Japan’s economy is going to improve in the coming months due to a weak yen and a pickup in exports,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Bleak euro zone economic data added to fear in the markets, driving demand for safe haven assets. U.S. Treasuries debt prices jumped, with benchmark yields falling to their lowest levels in three weeks.  The German bund gained and gold rose above $1,600 an ounce again.

In spite of the flooding of the world with US currency, the German market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007.  Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  But once again look at the spike up in stock prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America to the stock and bond markets of the world as more people enter poverty, go hungry and lose their jobs under Socialism’s equality of poverty.

 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.

 American Economy

The DJI failed to break out.  Given the inflation exceeding 15% since the last high in 2008 it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

 

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 

This week
A composite index for the services and manufacturing industries fell to 46.5 from 47.9. Anything below 50 means the business is declining. The composite gauge has been below 50 for 14 straight months and just got worse.
 

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Existing Home Sales continue depressed.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing

Apr 1

March ISM Manufacturing Index Mar is 51.3, plummets from 54.2

Construction Spending Feb 1.2% recovers from -2.1%

April 2

The leading Indicators in Feb were flat at 0.5% due to stock market peaking.

April 3

MBA Mortgage Index 03/30 of new applications plunged -4.0%

ADP Employment Change March down to unsustainable 158K from 198K

March ISM services index also plummets to 54.4% from 56.0%

Crude Inventories 03/30 dropped to 2.707M NA from 3.256M

Apr 4

Challenger Job Cuts Mar 30.0% up from 7.0% 

Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K 

Continuing Claims 03/23 3063K rose from 3050K

 

Markets

Money is flowing into America and the American economy has been benefiting from the collapse of socialist economies as money flees Europe, the BRICKS, China, and Japan much the way it did in the late nineties when Russian and Asian equity markets collapsed and they had a banking crisis.  We see that is happening now as the dollar strengthens and the socialists squeeze their brightest and hardest workers to cover the cost of socialist entitlements.  Cyprus is a lesson and we will see money continue to flee socialist countries into American markets.  But the socialists will try to stop the outflow and will succeed.

 

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined?  It still looks like close to zero The American dock workers are ready to go on to strike as soon as the economy picks up.  World trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Bernanke is pushing on a string.  The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates. 

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=m y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe