It is believed that
Often a market decline of Monday’s magnitude is just a
correction. But every four months of
advance as we just had, we can see three to four times as big a decline over a
period of one to two months starting this past Monday. We think this year will resemble the last two
where the market advanced early in the year then lost most of it and gained it
back by December. There is however an
increasing possibility that the bull market we had since April 2009 is
over. Bull markets once ran 3 years then
4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours has run
4 years so far. Bear markets follow for
1 to 2 years.
We have now seen the gold shakeout that George Soros and
others wanted to initiate last year. Unfortunately
for the small investors Soros succeeded in panicking some of them. As we saw in the last few weeks, the drop in
the value of the yen already had the Japanese selling their gold jewelry
because it is a unique opportunity to sell gold since it rose 15% relative to
the Yen. Now they are buying. Retail buying of gold has reportedly surged now in Asia . India India
All commodities are falling because China China China can have a recession or a depression just
as easily as America or Japan China
Jim
Rogers and many others say we set a new resistance plateau and Gold will never
see these lows again. In fact the cost of mining gold is going through the roof
and gold inventories are collapsing.
http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-once-this-bottom-is-formed-we-may-never-see-gold-at-these-levels-ever-again/
The Obama administration has been talking up the market and
placating the poor with food stamps and toys for four years now with few good
results. It’s not working: Nearly 2M NYC
residents are now on food stamps
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/M?anticache=1366055762
Oil is under pressure from fracking gas coming on line. Brent oil dropped 10% over the week.
World Economies
German economic expectations deteriorated in April, falling
for the first time in five months, according to the ZEW survey.
Investors dumped stocks and other commodities after
weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data raised concerns about the global
economic outlook. China China in March also undershot expectations and
added to investor sensitivity after recent disappointing economic data out of
the United States
Brent crude fell towards $100 a barrel, while on Wall Street
stocks were down more than 1 percent.
Normally it stayed above $109 but it fell to the level of Texas
In spite of the flooding of the world with US currency, the German
market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007. Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation
when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high
when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.
The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.
The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. But once again look at the spike up in stock
prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my
The NYSE is similar
to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of
15% inflation but the market no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.
American Economy
The DJI failed to break out.
Now that the Big Brother and the FED is inflating the money supply the
new highs don’t even Given the inflation exceeding 15% since the last high in
2008 it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.
This week
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
Apr 15
A U.S.
Export Prices ex-ag. Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown
from0.6%
Empire Manufacturing Apr 3.1 sharply down from 9.2
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Feb -$17.8B an outflow of foreign
investment down from previous inflows such as $25.7B.
NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 42 down from 44
Apr 17
MBA Mortgage Index 04/13 4.8% flat 4.5%
Crude Inventories 04/13 -1.233M sharply lower from 0.250M
Fed's Beige Book Apr to cut QE before the end of 2013
Apr 18
Initial Claims 04/13 352K up 2% from 346K
Continuing Claims 04/6 3068K flat from 3079K
Philadelphia Fed Apr 1.3 contracting from 2.0
Leading Indicators Mar -0.1% sharply lower from 0.5%
Natural Gas Inventories 04/13 31 bcf increasing
The Markets April 19, 2013
Often a market decline of Monday’s magnitude is just a
correction. But every four months of
advance as we just had, we can see three to four times as big a decline over a
period of one to two months starting this past Monday. We think this year will resemble the last two
where the market advanced early in the year then lost most of it and gained it
back by December. There is however an
increasing possibility that the bull market we had since April 2009 is
over. Bull markets once ran 3 years then
4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours has run
4 years so far. Bear markets follow for
1 to 2 years.
Look at the recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance
or topping. http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel
Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to
0% short term interest rates.
The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble
began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008. Again look at 5 years and you see the worst
is yet to come. The VIX would normally
top out above 30 before the bear market ends.
World market updates:
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
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