Monday, January 26, 2015

Jan 30 The US rate of homeownership is now at a 20year low in spite of the Senate libtard Obama-Dodd-Frank liar loan initiative to increase American homeownership by lowering home mortgage qualifications and making the acceptance of applicant fraud socially-acceptable in the case of the poor and minorities. The so-called Holder Justice Department sued realtors and banks for discrimination if they refused too many applicants who were a default risk. Honest business persons were embarrassed, sued, and defamed when they tried to act intelligently and did not grant high risk mortgages. When Ken Lewis the president of Bank of America resisted the government forced acquisition of the corrupt Countrywide firm he was subsequently forced out by the pressure from the Libtards who exerted pressure even through their state employee pension fund stock ownership. Thanks to new libtard policies the housing market has collapsed again in spite of libtard quantitative easing which is slowly easing the entire world into a Libtard deflationary spiral. Such a spiral can only lead to a Libtard Great Depression if we do not replace Libtards in all levels of the US government bureaucracy. The FBI has warned about the Libtard liar-loan fraud since 2004 but the Libtards in the Senate know that stopping liar-loans would hurt turnout of their voter base.






 

Libtards in government are the cause of the free world economies heading over a cliff.  Libtards even use government funds to give their voter base free stuff like phones and income with negative taxes.  Many people now chose to vote socialist and not have to work or pay taxes and they therefore are lowering the unemployment rate for socialist Libtards to brag about.

 

After the first Liar-loan housing collapse, Obama-Holder still sued certain banks for discrimination again because the banks used prudence and had stopped making higher risk loans.   Libtards see the US housing bubble and collapse as a good socialist way to redistribute wealth.  



 

The American housing market is tanking as banks are seeing a large uptick in risky loans and as oil and other commodity prices plummet weakening their credit markets.  Case-Shiller 20-city Index for Nov was down again.   The January MBA Mortgage Index stood at -3.2% down from +14.2% last month.  Pending Home Sales in Dec were down -3.7% from +0.8% in November.  The Wall Street Journal warned that the Obama administration policies are about to create another mortgage meltdown.

Senators Dodd, Frank and Obama set up Fannie and Freddie as Big-Government agencies to shield banks from a mortgage liar loan meltdown and ultimately hold the liar loans.  Private banks and realtors became simply the middlemen for the “Big Government agencies” which were supposed to make it possible for every American to own a home.  But Goldman and others made derivatives of the worthless liar loans spreading the risk to investors.  Now some of the worthless liar loans back some of the Quantitative Easing.  Obama still has not foreclosed on all the Liar Loans.  Now of course Obama wants every American to have a free useless libtard education too.  That is key to libtard policies and gives Libtards teaching positions.  The Obama-Dodd-Frank liar loans led to the 2008 mortgage meltdown that Obama said was on Bush’s watch even though Obama-Dodd-Frank cause the problem and took credit for the booming 2006 housing market when deadbeats were buying their liar-loan homes.  Now the WSJ is warning that Obama is steering the USA toward yet another mortgage meltdown.


 

The EU is going to try a short spell of their version of Quantitative Easing (flooding their economies with cash.   That was what the USA was supposed to do but Obama/Yellen have ruined the American economy by not letting the private economy take over when the banking crisis was over.   The FED has not stopped flooding the stock markets with cash.  Now Obama has impoverished the working class, destroyed much of the middle class and enriched all the rich political donors that loved his socialist government low interest cash.  The Wall Street Journal says Obama/Yellen hurt 95% of American households giving out cheap money like free candy and cell phones to the richest 5%.



Today the Obama administration released a ridiculously optimistic unemployment report that even the liberal NBC economic commentators said was unbelievable.  It claimed the rate of increase in unemployment was as low as under Regan and Clinton.  The number is too stupid and embarrassingly low to give the light of day.
Yesterday, the cream of the crop DJI average gave a sell signal with the breakdown of the 65 dma resistance level and a succession of declining highs.  The broadest indicator, the NYSE, gave a more massive sell signal last October.  The DJIA gave a market cash flow indicator breakdown a week ago.  It looks like a challenge of the 200 dma will be coming soon.


Jan 27  Soon more and more shrewd investors will soon be going into more investments outside the stock market or possibly beginning to short the market.  As we have said the truth about value does not come out until a correction occurs, and then the story gets worse and worse until below a certain point the owners and employees know their company is a good investment and they invest in their own companies again.  Any manager who uses the corporation cash to buy its stock at the highs knows he is hurting the corporation down the road.  It is better to use the cash to buy after the stock market correction in over in 12 to 18 months from now.  Then the cash can launch the stock recovery.
Now that the last quarter is over the administration once again lowers the level of the old data so that next report can be increased by the amount the previous report was lowered.  That prevents the data from getting completely ridiculous and few people go back to check and discover the manipulation because they expect American leaders to be truthful.  Now a libtard will say there is nothing wrong with the data revisions.  But anyone with a brain who understands statistics knows that statistical errors are neutral.  The positive corrections must not exceed the negative corrections.  A libtard administration does not know that.  

Remember how great Obama said the fourth quarter was?  Well now that it is the first quarter he has dropped those fourth quarter numbers to make the first quarter show better results again. 

Durable Orders for Dec were down -3.4%

Durable Goods -ex transportation for Dec were down -0.8%    

It has now been disclosed that Obama exchanged an American army deserter for the four 911 al Qaeda commanders that Obama released to Qatar.

Consumer sentiment has risen since the Libtards lost the Senate but it will take a libtard-free government to turn around the American economy and bring sanity and honesty back to the American government and expel the present fearful and loathing government.


Jan 26  In October the broadest stock indicator, the NYSE gave a neckline breakdown sell signal followed by descending tops.  The sell signal for the more accurate NYSE Market Cash flow index was much clearer.  We indicated last October that the market appeared to be in the early stage of a bear market similar to the early stage in 2007 a full year before the liar loan derivative mortgage crisis began breaking banks.  We explained that the stock market takes a long time to ferret out problems such as corruption of corporate and economic data which is typically hidden until it can no longer be managed.  Those who remember the DOTCOM bubble see many of the same corruptions of data they had then.  Profit and loss was and is now corrupted again.   Here are a few examples of how the corruption occurs over time. 
·     Valuations initially depend on truthful top to bottom line earnings and growth with a consistent accounting process.
·     Valuations are corrupted by changing accounting procedures.  For instance changing from LIFO to FIFO on a large product inventory during inflation artificially boosts short term earnings by technically selling the earlier cheaper inventory first.  Companies have been caught and even sped up the process by bookkeeping profit to the moment the sale was declared instead of waiting until the revenue was banked.
·     Debt and losses are transferred to accounts that make them seem to disappear by holding them as assets.  Greece did that once.  For instance a manufacturer of aircraft or propulsion systems which may see development costs double on a new aircraft or engine but may continue to book the losses as normal and as an asset even though they know the market may never allow them to recover those losses.
·     News reporters who continually puff up major corporations seem to find themselves very popular in the industry and people with an eye for those cooking the books don’t seem to last very long unless they wait until the damage is done and the corporation is failing or shut down.
·     The longer a bull market runs the deeper the muck of dishonesty becomes and the deeper the depression and the longer the stagnation persists afterwards.  When America was at its fastest growth rate the boom and bust cycle was four years.  The roaring twenties were very long and gave us a long depression.  Recently we printed quotations that show economists and politicians thought the boom would last forever in the 1920s just as the world sank into the Great Depression.  The longer the boom the more shoddy the bookkeeping and the more corrupted the reporters, politicians, and regulators become.
There are many well known ploys and hundreds of them are impossible to continually expose except in a deep recession.   The living dead do not exist in nature but flourish in stock markets and economies where the government is incompetent, illegally employs the IRS and the NSA to harass and punishes the honest opposition, drives out the most reputable of bankers such as Ken Lewis, and tries to steal the vote and cheapen American democracy by importing aliens who don’t want to salute the American flag or learn to speak our language.
 
The bear market is also beginning to show up now in the more selective indices.  The DJ industrials, DJ Average, NASDAQ, and the SandP are all topping out now.  On a cash flow basis the DJIA has just topped confirming the NYSE MCF sell signal.  These are all the early signs which give investors ample time to prepare.
The world economies are already in decline but all governments know that the thing they have to fear the most is investor fear itself.  The demand-supply for oil was already declining last summer and that always has to happen before oil prices free-fall.  The subsequent free-fall decline in the price of oil is because people are running out of places to store the oil.  It has been a boon for the ships which were idled due to the sharp decline in building and raw materials shipping.
The EURO is dropping sharply towards parity with the American dollar as the EU effectively drops their prices worldwide to increase their exports and possibly avoid sinking into an economic depression.  The Swiss panicked last week and floated their Franc causing sharp losses to some currency speculators.  Others made a windfall.  As the velocity of money declines the jagged problems that sink corporations, banks, and nations are becoming more dangerously exposed.  When the velocity of money is low, countries are tempted to print money.  But hyperinflation is usually much worse in that it breaks everyone but the corrupt who know how steal wealth.
The Department of Commerce’s retail sales information is rated A- for importance on a scale of A to F for all economic data.  It fell 0.9% in December while the administration was boasting about a strong recovery. 
 
Anyone close to real estate also noticed a sudden cooling in the number of people looking to buy homes in September, the third quarter, and a sharp drop in existing home sales in the fourth quarter.  The Obama administration has a bad habit of loudly exaggerating new reports while quietly revising the previous reports downward.
Obama gave small businesses time to switch to a shorter work week so that their employees can have government subsidize healthcare and the corporations can avoid that burden.  That is major reason for the USA unemployment numbers are falling while in actuality our workforce has shrunk with many young people unable to find decent jobs and many older workers giving up.  It is the same game leftist countries have been playing for years to reduce unemployment.   It is just another form of redistribution of wealth that reduces the unemployment statistic and fools many people into thinking something improved.  But it is also the reason few Americans think things are getting better and why Americans are so discontented with the current US government.
 
Until recently, Americans actually still worked about 47hrs per week and most got no overtime for it.  But for businesses to avoid the cost of Obama’s socialized medicine the workers need to work what is currently considered part time hours. 
 
History shows that leftists lure workers with lower working hours and more time off.  The French now work just 35 hours/wk with 5 to 9 weeks/yr vacation the norm.  In Greece they work less. But in countries where the leftists form their dictatorship of the proletariat the economy becomes so dysfunctional that the work resembles slave labor.   
 
If it were not for the fact that this particular American administration continues to think itself to be very clever and thinks that most Americans and other national leaders are very stupid, the world would be a much better place today.
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