Jan 9 The record employment falsely reported in December has just been revised downward. Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 252K revised down sharply from 353K reported in December. Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec 240K revised down sharply from 345K.

Unemployment Rate Dec 5.6% was reported down from 5.8% because 30 hr part-time Obama workers are replacing the American 40 hr workforce. Average Workweek Dec now is only 34.6 hrs when it once was close to 40hrs.

Hourly Earnings Dec -0.2% after falsely reporting it 0.4% higher during the month of December.

Consumer Credit Nov $14.1B down from $16.0B

Under Obama, the nation’s Community Colleges have to a large degree become baby sitting services and Obama thinks they should now be free up since they are no longer of any employment value except for the fact the teachers would be more government workers voting for socialism, higher pensions, and more free things.

Wholesale Inventories Nov increased 0.8% as the Obama recession settles in.   The glut of oil caused by the worldwide economic slowdown will soon fill every storage facility available and at that time many wells will be forced to shut down.  Currently they have only stopped drilling new wells.  The drop in world energy demand is a very clear sign of the declining world economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

 

Jan 8, 2015  The American economy is on the verge of collapse but Gruber and Obama think Democrats, liberals and socialists are extremely stupid so this is what they have  done to hide higher unemployment and the looming crash.   They have pressured American employers to hire part time workers for a 30hr per week instead of full time workers at 40hrs per week.  If an automobile company needs 1200 hr of new work done they now hire forty 30h week workers instead of thirty 40 hour week workers and thus create 10 new Gruber-Obama part time jobs.   Gruber then told Obama to define full time as only 30hrs and then penalize all companies that have 40hr workers by saying 40hr employees must be privately subsidized for the cost of socialized medicine but part time employees (30hs or less) get a government subsidy.  The net effect is that the unemployment rate has gone down because most new workers now work only 30hrs so that the private corporation does not have to subsidize socialized medicine.   France has been doing that for more than fifty rears and now very few of the French still work a 40hr week.   The socialists abroad actually often say, “Americans live to work, but we socialists work to live, eat, and drink.”  Liberals and socialists think work avoidance is good character trait because socialism is a job destroyer that creates government jobs welfare and free things for incompetent political friends, corporate favors, and corrupt politicians.  Russia and much of the Moslem world, South America, Africa, and Asia are steeped in socialism and are corrupt and almost in chaos.  The EU is now on a slippery slope of recession in concerned about the possibility of a  depression.

 

Obama’s manipulation of federal statistics is now being done automatically because of the Gruber-Obama altered unemployment statistic to appear to be dropping as if the economy is improving.  Initial Claims 01/03 294K down 4K from 298K last month.  But once again Continuing Claims 12/27 were 2452K up 1K from 2351K last month.  The law of continuity says this bias makes no sense since the length of time allowed with unemployment payments dropped well over a year ago.   Times are still tough everywhere and this is not even the time of year when corporations expand.  Real new hiring typically peaks in late spring and early summer.   This manipulation is caused by Obama (by executive decision) defining full time employees as only working more than a 30hr week instead of 40hrs as has been the American standard because Obama found out from Professor Gruber that stupid Liberals and Democrats need to be deceived in order for them to vote for people who support socialism (liberal pseudo-Cherokee or otherwise).   But the Republicans are not so stupid and plan to define full time employment again as 40 hrs and American unemployment may well climb closer to 15% than Obama’s socialist 5.8% interpretation.  Obama will try to maintain his employment statistics by eventually having Americans only work to barely get by as they do in Russia and France.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2015/01/08/obama-will-veto-legislation-restoring-the-40hour-work-week-n1939704

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/10/obamacare-architect-we-passed-law-due-to-stupidity/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-moves-to-change-full-time-work-to-40-hours-in-health-law-1420669832

obamacare-architect-lack-of-transparency-was-key-because-stupidity-of-the-american-voter-would-have-killed-obamacare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sn2eDyaq3mQ&feature=youtu.be

 

Housing permits and starts were down for 2014 vs 2013

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits

 

Total hourly workers wages are down about 40% since Obama took office.  They are the people who in large voted for the Obama.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=hourly_eci

 

The ratio of stock market bulls to bears peaked in mid 2014 and began to decline.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

 

The broadest stock market indicator, the NYSE peaked in July of 2014 and failed to reach a new high on three occasions and broke the neckline giving a sell signal in early October. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

Jan 7, 2015    It seems two Direxion ETFs are behaving abnormally.  While housing related shares have been going down this week and iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB has been down the last four days, the Direxion housing ETF DRN has been going up.  This is highly abnormal and is perhaps a problem the SEC will have to look into.  Sector ETFs are supposed to follow their sectors.  Lloyd Blankenfein the chairman and GEO of Goldman Sacks said this morning that deflation could mean a 40% drop in housing prices.  Deflation is already a problem in the EU.  He said deflation lowers expectations so people put off buying and doing things to wait for better bargains.  That is the opposite of what we need for an economic recovery.  So he is in favor of the FED continuing QE rather than reversing it.  A drop in housing prices now would mean a complete housing and commercial building collapse.  That brings us back to the beginning.  Why are the two Direxion ETFs behaving abnormally as though housing construction and commercial building are or will be booming when the risk is now economic contraction?   Usually a contradiction is a sign of manipulation.  But who would be doing that?

Last week someone predicted a bull market in 2015 citing as evidence that the DJI has never declined more than two days in a row over the last year.  Well it just broke that record and declined four days in a row.

American Economy

Factory Orders Nov -0.7% down again after -0.7% last month

ISM Services Dec 56.2 down sharply from 59.3 last month

 

Jan 6, 2015    Controlled contained small-scale thermonuclear fusion is the ultimate world energy solution.   As we said months ago, the glut of oil and subsequent drop in oil’s price was caused by the current worldwide economic slowdown similar to 2007, and 1929.  We showed that with historic national Oil price data that Obama could not have had falsified like his recent GDP reports.   We are lucky if it is 2% growth now.  This American administration incompetence is not an Obama directive but rather is a learned response of government bureaucracies in any incompetent and corrupt government.  It is true of the communist governments in China, Russia, and N. Korea as well and the American news media (with the exception of the Wall Street Journal, the Fox network and most of the CNN staff).  About half the people in the American government are now appointed by corrupt crony socialist administrators where loyalty to leftist ideals trumps competence and integrity.  The imminent stock market plunges will affect the DOW and SandP which are the last refuges of the fund managers.  Soon the short sellers (who have been essentially absent these last three years) will dominate the market.  But have no fear; the next rally will be falsely called a second capitulation.

 

Historically, the market drops 30% before the economic news recognizes there is a national recession raging.  Then the market plunges another 30% in less than half the time of the first 30% drop.  But in 1932 FDR took President Hover’s 60%  stock market drop and made it a FDR  90% Great Depression stock market drop.  FDR replaced Hover who Americans ejected after one term.  Obama was not ejected as he should have been after his first term.  So Obama’s second term sets him up for a potential FDR first term type decline of 90%, something the world has not seen for 86 years.   

The greatest victim of the surge in energy supplies will be the solar, wind and other electric alternative energy sources.  The collapse of Tesla and those other alternative markets will be met with a resumption of coal as an energy source when energy demand resumes and oil prices rise again.  Asia and Africa will remain coal consumers.  High maintenance solar energy systems will rapidly deteriorate and fall into disuse.   The expense of dismantling the old deteriorating and leaking systems will end the popularity of alternative energy for about another 30 years until people ignore that solar is not economical yet.  This is an historic repeat of what happened during the incompetent administration of Jimmy Carter where his administration said the earth would run out of oil year by the year 2000.  In fact the liberal Daniel Patrick Moynihan said something like that during Nixon’s administration too.  Needless to say energy has always been an American concern.   At first, early Americans used water power and wood, then coal, then oil, then nuclear fission. 

The real breakthrough will happen when America leads a Western World effort to develop controlled nuclear fusion for all humanity.  That effort started in the USA in the 1960’s but was forgotten during the Jimmy Carter years.  It is the real energy hope of our future.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

https://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Nuclear_fusion.html

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2014/06/07/mit-used-lobbying-influence-restore-nuclear-fusion-dream-after-white-house-sought-stop-funding/T5Q9esYqbZsxIbXUpnEHFN/story.html

 

Jan 5, 2015    Our message is that the bear has gathered strength and will likely now return with fury this month.  As the level of prosperity in the global economic river is lowered the rocks will appear.  There was no capitulation in the market plunge that ended mid October.  The volume on that bottom of the plunge was about half what occurs with a real capitulation.  The following rally did not set a new high in the stock market as measured by 30,000+ American stocks.  Only the relatively few stocks hit highs and those are the ones in the indices which people buy because indices perform better than the stock market.  Expert stock pickers cannot beat the DJI or the S and P and that should be enough proof to anyone with more than half a brain that the DJI and the S and P are lagging not leading indicators of economic recessions.