Monday, January 12, 2015

January 16, 2015 As we pointed out since September, we never know the worst problems in a cash flooded economy until the cash flow subsides and the rocks begin to be exposed. When the Quantitative Easing floodgates closed the level of free cash began to drop. A reversal of QE would likely result in a depression and we cannot even be sure the world will not enter one now even without reversing QE. In 1990 the Japanese were the second largest economy in the world vying to overtake America. At one point they even owned more of the top ten world banks than the US owned. That was when they became the first nation in the world to use quantitative easing. Their stock market has fallen (in US dollars) ever since they did QE.




Citigroup said profit tumbled 86% to $350 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.  The banks have been harassed and some think blackmailed by the Obama administration from the start.   In 2009 we reported how Obama harassed Ken Lewis forcing the founder of Bank of America into retirement.  This past year, Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan Chase’s legal expenses defending the bank from Obama fell from upwards of $11 billion the year earlier to below $3 billion as Obama harassment entered its fifth year.  Jamie Dimon used an obscenity to describe his frustration this past week. 


The stock market dropped 30% before the submerged Mortgage Liar-Loan derivative rocks sunk the US economy at the end of 2008.  Once the liar loan defaults emerged stocks fell another 30% to hit its bottom the week Obama took office.


The credibility of this American government administration is now lower than any previous administration in American history including presidents Andrew Johnson and Thomas Harding.  Race relations have also hit a new low and the unrest has been stoked by this administration.  These are times that try men’s souls.

January 15, 2015   We are nearing a point when many investors will begin to go on the sidelines.  The market makers can and must maintain an orderly market.  They are very clever and high volatility is how they usually do it.  Only the high frequency traders can profit much from high volatility.  The buy and hold investor becomes traumatized seeing high profits one day or week only evaporating the next day.   That is especially true of ETFs.   Each week many investors will be eaten alive while waiting for just one more volatile moment when they can get out with a smaller loss or profit.  The market makers will likely lose control at some point during the next year but hopefully in an orderly fashion where the exchanges will not have to be halted very long or where short selling and ETF trading are halted.  
How retarded are the “expert” economic and financial Libtards in the Obama administration and the “Stupid Party?”  They agree we must rebuild US infrastructure but they claim that the Keystone Pipeline is NG because it will only create 30000 to 40000 temporary jobs with only a few hundred permanent jobs and very few positions for government regulators and political appointees. 
Well would someone wake them up and tell them that all infrastructure jobs are primarily temporary labor union jobs.   The permanent maintenance jobs are only a fraction of infrastructure labor and capital costs.  The pipeline will not only create many temporary labor union jobs building the pipeline but many more labor jobs making and delivering the pipe and all the equipment.  Infrastructure is built primarily to facilitate economic growth not to create more government employees to regulate the distribute libtard related poverty.   It is no wonder that US Labor force is becoming fed up with the Libtards too.  You can find out more about the principals and aspirations of Obama’s political army of Libtards at the following sites.




Recent Economic statistics
JOLTS – Temporary, part time and a few permanent Job Openings Nov of 4.972M up from 4.834M
MBA Mortgage Index 01/10 49.1% inundated for fear US interest rates are about to rise sharply.
Retail Sales Dec -0.9% not the huge gains Obama touted in December but instead the economy continued to get worse.
Retail Sales ex-auto Dec -1.0%  Not the puffed up record car sales touted earlier.
Business Inventories Nov has a 0.2% increase again, a sign of production slowing .
Jan 15 Initial Claims 01/10 316K rose from 294K
Continuing Claims 01/03 2424K down from 2452K. Finally the Libtards read what we said last week and are trying to make their falsified government data look more legitimate. 
PPI Dec -0.3% -down a symptom of falling oil prices lowering production costs.  


January 14, 2015   Back in December, Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller said real estate was overvalued and today on MSNBC he said a drop in oil prices historically has preceded a collapse in real estate prices. Yet housing investments and housing ETFs are still overvalued. That would say shorts and bearish housing ETF’s might be a bargain at this point in time. Time will tell but Robert Shiller has a good record.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/robert-shiller-fragile-real-estate-market-not-good-investment


Putin, Obama, Kim Jong-un, and Holder were not invited to the anti-terrorism parade in Paris.   In fact, Eric Holder was even left alone to pout in Paris while the parade was arranged.  Obama and Holder still refuse to recognize there is such a thing as Islamic terrorism.  How low can they go in the world of public opinion?


Jonathan Gruber is the $6 million dollar libtard who said Americans would be too stupid to figure out that Obamacare was a new tax on them.  Now full time jobs are being converted to part time jobs as many smaller companies employ part time workers to avoid mandatory libtard GruberCare fees and to save by paying lower salaries as well. The Obama administration is happy because most American’s do not know it is an old third world socialist trick to boost jobs and share the pain of impoverishment.  It also fits in well with the declining competence of American students and university professors in the politically correct liberal education system and the lowering of American student employment aspirations. More young people are becoming unemployable and turning to Marijuana and pain killers to create a more apathetic state.   In the mean time the Obama economy continues to stagnate and consumer demand is plummeting.  Housing sales have now slumped.  Still, no one in the news media has caught on or yet exposed the fact the Obama’s lower unemployment is the result of the complete destruction of the American full time career job.  Now workers expect to have several part time jobs during their lifetime requiring lower qualifications and fewer hours just when the advance of American industrial technology requires greater skills and knowledge.  Obama is simply defining old part-time jobs as his new full-time jobs and pretending the economy is recovering.   It is in fact going over a cliff that Obama cannot say it is not his doing.


Alasdair Macleod said, “This time last year I wrote that we were heading towards a second and unexpected financial and currency crisis that could happen at any time. I only modify that to say the crisis has indeed begun and it has much further to go this year.” 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/2015-year-slump




Chairman David Levy told clients in his monthly forecasting report,“Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn.”   Levy argued the U.S. and many advanced economies have limited room for policy makers to reverse any slump, and low inflation risks tipping into deflation (or a depression) in many parts of the world.  The EU now sees that as the most dangerous world economic threat.



January 12, 2015  The US stock market sell signal that began in broad market last fall is now beginning to show in the topping out of the select portfolios of the NASDAQ and DJIA.  Usually the NYSE can be expected to be down 30% before most investors begin to sell their stocks.   In fact most investors who get out, get out before the market is down 60%.  But this time we believe the Stupid Party’s incompetence could give us a repeat FDR’s 90% stock market panic.   FDR handed Stalin all of Eastern Europe to be enslaved by the communists.  FDR was also good at blaming the previous president for the economy.  It is a characteristic of the "stupid" party. 
Eisenhower and Regan and other presidents who loved the Founding Fathers always surrounded themselves with competent people unlike leaders of the stupid party.  And perhaps a WWIII OK coral showdown with Islamic Terrorism will be what puts the free world back on a path of free enterprise leadership. 
The people who do best in a liberated world take responsibility for themselves.  And when we all do that while exercising good character, compassion, and a cooperative spirit we become part of a courageous society that can attain new heights of culture, civilization, justice, and humanity.  American wisdom boils down to love, goodness, truth, work, creativity and simplicity.  Wisdom is not a way of knowing; it is a state of being.  Free enterprise is the wisdom we use that creates our wealth, and capitalism is the wisdom we use to help reinvest our wealth.


Harry Dent predicted the 2008 financial crisis and 2007 housing crash and now Harry Dent discusses the next financial crisis, a crash in 2015 – 2016.  China has the largest bubble in world history and their economic information is manufactured even more than Obama’s.  The crisis that China will face could lead to their confrontation with Japan further making the Obama administration irrelevant in the world just as Putin has done with Russia.   Harry Dent agrees with us that this will not only be a 60% stock market decline but will likely be a 90% decline as FDR gave America after Hover had just a 60% collapse similar to the two we had that started in the years 2000 and 2007.   The Democrats blamed Hover for the 1932 Great Depression but actually he had the more standard 60% stock exchange decline.  It was FDR who then followed up with a 1, 2 stupid socialist punch like what we now potentially face with Obama.  Stock prices are over valued and investor and consumer demand is falling.  Instead of a 60% market drop this time, current government incompetence and over-regulation makes a 90% stock market decline possible before Obama leaves office. 
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119187/mortgage-foreclosures-2015-why-crisis-will-flare-again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-OFE5SGRi8


 It is interesting that it was the liberal President Clinton that deregulated the stock market in 1998 and the liberal Obama-Dodd-Frank triumvirate that gave us the liar loan housing bubble crisis 2007-2015 and then in 2010 the stupid party gave us HR4173 with about eight times more financial restrictions than the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act regulations that Clinton erased in 1998.  We got a Dotcom bubble bursting from Clinton’s deregulation, a liar loan 2006 housing bubble bursting with the Dodd-Frank-Obama Liar-Loans.  They also created Fannie and Freddie, certified quasi-government employers of libtards, and now we are faced with a looming HR4173 blueprint for an economic depression due to the “Stupid Liberal Party” that can’t do anything right much less govern.



 We discovered a NASDAQ  anomaly!  The NASDQ composite index that normally traded only 2.5 billion shares gave a dangerous indication on October 13, 2014 as the market plunged and trading surged to what is listed as a historic record 63 billion shares.  It must have been traded in a bank’s dark pool because there was a negligible selloff.  We ran our model and if the transaction were real and done in the public market the NASDQ would have dropped about 800 points on October 13, 2014.  If the transaction was real it indicates some institution saw something dismal coming soon to the market just after we began to warn that the market was topping. 
The broad NYSE exchange plunged and gave a cash flow sell signal that month.  There was no capitulation at the stock market lows that month even though that was falsely reported on NBC.  The DJIA now seems to have passed its peak for this seven year business cycle.  The NASDQ is currently at its peak for this fading business cycle.  We have never seen anything like the NASDQ volume surge October 13, 2014 that caused no panic.  Could it be an error?  Why has no one reported it?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EIXIC+Historical+Prices


 Here is some satire on who is to blame for the big-lie of Grubercare.   Gruber’s ObamaCare has many built in lies.  First it fooled people as a new tax.  It now causes many small companies to reduce their work week hours so that they are exempted and that means they hire more part time workers which makes part time employment grow faster than 40 hr employment drops.  Therefore the “Stupid Party” liberals like Obama really believe they are not lying to Americans by claiming net unemployment has fallen.   Americans see the manipulated numbers are misleading and only government and financial sector salaries are improving.  Most Americans realize the Stupid Party economy is still declining.
http://safeshare.tv/w/jyeqLxShwx


Under-employment is spreading the poverty, compensating government employees and helping to positively distort the Obama stupid party statistics even as the American Economy is still tanking.   The socialists of Europe began doing the same thing more than forty years ago and that is why even Germany, France, and England can no longer afford a national defense to combat terrorism.  And eventually with the Stupid Party in power everywhere in the “free world” China, Russia, and the Islamic State will have overwhelming military power.  The principals of the American Founding Fathers are being incrementally destroyed by Stupid Party liberals.   Perhaps the Stupid Party will finally have what it has been fighting when we have a single united Stupid Party Slave State world with prison camps and Islamic State beheadings for all free thinkers.

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