According
to the Oxford Economics research, China's slowdown is already dragging
down commodity prices and trade partners around the world. China's economy now accounts for 11
percent of world GDP and around 10 percent of world trade. Its financial system
is massive, with its money supply now larger than the U.S.'s and now totals
over 20 percent of the world's money supply. So imagine what happens in the first economic hard-landing
that China
faces.
Already the
experts are pointing to the decline in oil tanker transport and are now
predicting oil prices will drop to $30/barrel before this recession is over. The US Fed refuses to confirm that the world
has entered a recession because they must raise rates soon or they will lose
interest rates as a means to stimulate the economy. But be aware that when the FED rate goes from
0.25% to 0.5%, bank debt will have to contract 50% just or else borrowers will
pay 100% more to service the same amount of debt. Ultimately borrowers will be driven to
deleverage 50% to maintain the status quo.
That means there will be tremendous stock and debt liquidation that will
shock all the world markets with even a 0.25% Fed hike.
Lawmakers
could use a must-pass government spending bill due by Dec. 11 to ensure that Syrian and Iraqi refugees must sign a pledge to support the American
Constitution and obey all the federal, state, town and local laws. Essentially Republicans say the refugees must
agree to be good citizens just to enter the USA. Some Republicans have backed defunding the
entry of Syrian and Iraqi refugees. If
the EU, Syria, or American Churches, Mosques, political groups, politicians or
other individuals want the immigration they should pay for it not the American
public. Put your money where your mouth
is. Pre-pay each immigrant to be vetted
before they can enter. Sponsors should
be held liable for any terrorist they sponsored. Thursday’s House vote had 47
Democrats supporting the Immigration bill, making it a veto-proof majority.
November 19
The DJI, usually the last index standing, is now getting ready to give a
sell signal. Stocks have had a case of bad
breadth. If you look at the following
plot for the last 200 days you see that the DJI which has little breadth is now
topping out and the rally these last three days is probably the last attempt to
break out and set a new high. If it
fizzles and later breaks the Aug 25 low you will see an avalanche of selling
because all the selective and easily manipulated indices will then confirm the
sell signals that the broader NYSE and Russell 2000 have already given. This is a great free plotting tool and you
can plot up to a 9 portfolio stocks or indices together for comparison and
making decisions.
Six
potential terrorists were detained in S. America with fake Syrian passports on
there way to enter the USA
through the Mexican border. The stupid
party leaders are so stupid that they are willing to destroy the Democrat Party
by subjecting American citizens to ISIS
attacks. Americans will never forgive
Hilary and the others supporting the settlement of ISIS age men and women in America. There are no records other than potentially
forged passports for the ISIS/Assad war refugees and therefore no intelligent
vetting is even remotely possible. But
we have a “stupid party” in power and a stupid administration that intends to
force unwilling states to absorb thousands of potentially dangerous immigrants.
If you watched the video’s of the
immigrants streaming into Europe anyone can see that more than half are the age
of the primitive/savage ISIS army head
hunters. Yet Obama continually lies and
says only a few percent of the immigrants are of army age and most are women
and children. Obama threatens he will
force the ISIS infiltrators on the states by using
his executive orders. This is yet another
reason a great majority of Americans want to throw the entire stupid party out of
power and fire all the stupid US
government employed criminals that were hired to harass non-profit groups that had
patriotic or religious members.
Most IPO’s
during the past year such as Alibaba were overpriced at three or four times
their true value and are one of the reasons the traditional business cycle
stock market collapse often overshoots to a 90% market loss from the
highs. Alibaba already has dropped about
50% from the IPO level and the market bottom is still at least a few months
away. The hot technology start-ups
market is showing signs of the final collapse coming.
The minutes
of the central bank’s October meeting shows that most of the 17 Fed officials
who participated in the debate expected that the economy would be ready for a
rate increase by December. It will be
the first contraction in credit in almost ten years.
Target’s
growth slowed in all categories including the technology toys of the Obama
dropout generation. Cell phones and
games play a significant roll in the “Stupid Party’s” support from
dropouts. Unfortunately for the stupid
party the dropouts would rather play games than work for a living or register
and vote. But even so digital and online
sales are now declining everywhere as the “stupid party” generation can’t find enough
entry level part-time jobs.
We have a
whole new stupid-party generation of ignorant students demonstrating on
campuses calling Thomas Jefferson and other American heroes racists. They
lack the knowledge to understand slavery was everywhere since 4000BC with the
Egyptian Empire as an economic system that flourished until 1830 when Britain was the
first to outlaw the slave trade. And these
new stupid party recruits are too ignorant to even know that Thomas Jefferson,
a slave holder, founded the Democrat Party which Obama and Hilary have morphed
into the US
“stupid party.” The stupid party leader
Obama claims that the USA is
still a racist society and yet he was elected to the highest position in America. What does that say? It says the “stupid party” is by their own
definition a stupid or racist group, and their target group now is the white
minority who are successful. The dropout Adolf Hitler also saw the
successful Jewish minority as too successful and that was his proof of them
being exploiters. Hitler got the power
to kill them and steal their wealth. The
racists in America
are now the majority, they hold the White House, and they regularly attack and
try to deny the free speech of the “minority Americans” who study hard, work
hard, and earned everything they got.
November
18 The latest economic data indicates
cash is becoming tight and the American economy has now peaked. The stock market is a leading indicator of
the economy and the cash flow into the stock market is a leading indicator of
the market price levels. But once the stock market peaks and begins to
decline you can see that it provides feedback to the market prices and that becomes
a second order accelerating instability.
That usually results in a rapid market decline that is four or five
times faster than a bull market moves because layoffs escalate, mergers
decline, personal income declines, sales, decline, and a host of economic factors
spin down and bottom out fast. The
system essentially goes off a cliff, hits bottom in four or six months and then
resumes the long term economic and business trend.
The market
anchor men and women all blow bullish and bearish with the wind. There is no one in the media who knows
anything. They select and pull in the so
called experts each day that provide whatever bull or bear story they are
selling investors that day. If the
market went up they provide canned reasons and predict it is a bull
market. If the market goes down it’s a
correction but don’t worry. They provide
worthless advice because they can only explain away anything in the past yet they
know nothing about causes and effects that affect the future.
Walmart
raised prices and wages so income dropped 3%.
The idiot market anchor men and women spun it as positive because the
higher prices caused higher revenue.
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Housing
Starts Oct 1060K sharply down from 1206K last month even though good warm
weather helps housing. The warm weather
was also irrationally blamed for the retail sales decline. It is cold now and nothing has picked up.
Industrial Production September and October months were both
down -0.2%.
The NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov was 62.0 down from 65
in Oct.
New York Manufacturing down in Nov -10.7 after being down
-11.4 last month.
Consumer Price Index Oct up 0.2%
Core CPI September and October was up 0.2% as the FED has
for the goal to raise interest rates.
The stupid
party wants to settle Islamic Sharia law fundamentalists in America and does not think they
should be required to pledge allegiance to our government and disavow Sharia
law as incompatible with the American Constitution. This new stupid party effort just adds to the
anger Americans feel toward Hilary Obama and their stupid party. The Clintons
persecuted Christian fundamentalists, a special forces veteran at Wako, and a
Wako religious group that was slandered falsely before they slaughtered the
men, women, and children.
What do Moslem newscasters think of Obama?
November 17 Finally
Obama has given his full list of extremists.
At first the list was given to his IRS chief Lois Lerner so she would
persecute any group or person associated
with terms like hunting, target, tea party, patriot, founding fathers,
Christian, fundamentalism, Republican, historical society, or other “extremist
label” as defined by Obama and the “Stupid Party.” Yesterday Obama completed his list of
extremists calling the terrorist attacks in Paris yet another, “terrible and sickening
setback in the fight against extremism.”
Yes Obama puts ISIS right up there with Christian Fundamentalist summer
camps as ISIS type extremists. More than 80% of Americans who are already
“extremely angry” now they find themselves lumped in with ISIS
as extremists by Obama and his “Stupid Party.”
In many ways
the response of the American stock market yesterday was sickening. All other major world stock markets fell but
in America
the terrorist attack caused sick people to invest heavily thinking war,
persecution, and terror would be good for capitalism.
Bjorn Lomborg
points out in today’s WSJ that the UN climate change chief wants a lasting
economic solution and that the conference delegation from Bolivia proposes that the lasting
solution is, “We must destroy capitalism.”
Yesterday’s American stock market reaction was disgusting and shows a
war mongers enthusiasm that ISIS terrorism
(Obama’s extremism) will help American armaments, spying, oil, nuclear,
medical, and technology industries. Yesterday
the American markets were a rising toilet boll of opportunity. Our view of current stock market is that it
will go much lower and have its final flush some time in early spring.
November 16 On Friday morning “clueless in DC” Obama
said his enemy ISIS JV team had been contained.
Democrat candidates had blamed the rise of ISIS
on Climate change. What happened?
The Democrats were pretty good in the early 1960’s under Kennedy! But by 1969 they were so open-minded that
their brains fell out and they are now terminally stupid. Donald Trump is not trumping all the idiot
candidates who pooh-pooh evidence of immigrant criminals destroying Western
Civilization with both ruthless drug cartels and insane ruthless Islamic groups. We expect the sharp selloff of the stock
market will soon accelerate because the Obama government is still
clueless. The military industrial complex will likely benefit
significantly.
Wars like Vietnam, Iraq,
and Afghanistan
have never been claimed a long term economic benefit but often they have been
claimed the lesser of evils. Today ISIS uses encrypted messages that we cannot break perhaps
because they do it in a language we do not bother with. Perhaps we had better crack their code quickly.
The world
wide recession is deepening. Quiet US
Ports are evidence of a worldwide trade slowdown disaster. Inventory/sales are peaking.
The 30% Solar Tax Credit ends in 2016 and that explains the
disaster the solar industry is now anticipating.
American funds are heavily invested in China’s debt and Americans could end up paying
for much of the overexpansion and completely vacant cities built in China. This will cripple many on Wall Street and
defaults escalate.
November 15 It looks like we are seeing a repeat coming
of the 30 year war (between 1618 and 1648) where Protestants fought back
against Catholic Spanish armies that slaughtered protestant men, women, and
children in central Europe. 2000 castles were destroyed and the Swedish
King and his army came to the rescue and fought back the Spanish. But that was not before 50% of the people in
the areas affected of Europe were
murdered. The Pilgrims were disgusted
with religious oppression and sailed to America
and established the first permanent colony at Plymouth Massachusetts
in 1620. The Catholics reformed and no
longer burn people at the stake or pull them apart on the rack. Now it is time for the Moslems to learn the
same lesson.
This is edited
from a retired RAF officer who served in the sixties and is now working and
living in Germany.
It was written before the Islamic
religious war started this week against the French. Now France is bombing ISIS Moslems in
retaliation.
Dear Friends,
Europe is now in total chaos and I think that you should
know about it. The floodgates opened
and, in my view, this was all pre-planned. It seems that some 8000 people per
day are now entering Europe via various
routes. Most of these are young males between 17 and 25. The result is chaos as
you can imagine. Here in Saarland
we have been overwhelmed with refugees. In Lebach, some 10 kilometers from
here, a camp for 200 was set up and a further 100 added this last week. The politicians,
local government and religious leaders have fallen over themselves to bring
them in and cater for them.
And so what is
the result? In Ventimiglia near Monte
Carlo, the refugees banded together (organized by
smart phone) and over ran the market and stole or destroyed everything and
ransacked the town Here in Lebach, a group entered a supermarket and took what
they wanted and destroyed the rest. When the Manager confronted them, they
called up their friends and smashed the place to bits. The police arrived but
were overwhelmed. The supermarket is now closed. Two supermarkets and a Kaufland store in Halle suffered the same
way. More news is coming in from all over Germany of the same
situations. The media reported none of
this. Many people have demonstrated
against being over run by immigrants. In
Weissenfels, families were thrown out of an eight flat apartment block and 70
refugees moved in. Small towns of some
2000 to 3000 people are over run by some 5000 to 6000 refugees.
Europe is in chaos and the do gooders have totally lost
control of the situation. Islam has overwhelmed us. Anyway, I thought that you should know that
the situation here is pretty grim and I fail to see how it can be resolved. I
can only foresee a police state.
The above could never happen in America because we have the second
amendment and more armed Americans than the Chinese have in their army. Americans would defend themselves and their
property.
Needless to
say, horrible wars are not periods of good economic times. People work much harder and live on rations. Many corporations go under and the military
industrial complex creates less than it destroys when there is war. War may bring Putin and other dictators back
into the fold of the Western democracies.
Will wars be declared? Iran, Iraq,
Turkey, Afghanistan, Syria,
Libya, and Pakistan could all be forced to
change one way or another with enforcement of a UN bill of human rights.
