May 5, 2016 This is a difficult year to plan anything with a stock market bubble and no obvious economic shock in sight. But the pressure is building with the BRICS slowly entering bankruptcy. Puerto Rico is also entering bankruptcy and the wealthy Chinese are putting all the money they can into offshore accounts. Gold is now rising as an indication of the fear of either an economic collapse or of accelerating inflation. The glut of oil continues to increase as most major economies struggle to grow. It is similar to the situation President Herbert Hoover faced, but he and FDR did not have all the economic tools we have today. But the tools don’t seem to work as the debt bubble expands and interest rates approach zero and turn negative even in the best of economies. That is another reason people are starting to buy gold again as hyperinflation becomes a possible world problem. That happens to countries that get too debt ridden and the whole world is falling deep into debt.

China has been a bellwether in recent years with their protectionist policies and high tariffs on competitive imports.  But that could come to a quick end next year.  Hillary says she will follow Obama’s economic and world leadership with a continuation of his same disastrous policies if she is elected.  Now we know the Obama-Hillary administration has been the most incompetent administration in American history.  And Hilary has been the Secretary of State primarily responsible for the disintegration of democracy and the growth of terrorism in Moslem ruled areas while she and Obama refused to even say the words Islamic terrorism.

 

Trump is competent and he says he will threaten to retaliate dollar for dollar for the tariffs and restrictions that China, Mexico and others put on American products.  He claims he is so intelligent and persuasive that he will convince all our trade partners to reduce their tariffs as a condition for no American tariffs on their products.  But he makes an exception for American companies that sold out to greed and moved out of America for cheaper labor.  Those company products will have tariffs until those companies move back to America.   Even if it proves impossible it is the thought that counts and the lesson the deserters will learn.

 

The point is that the whole coming year is impossible to predict due to the uncertain American Fall election.  Mid-June+ 2016 probably will not be the final market bottom now unless Trump starts beating Hillary in all the election polls and then wins the election.   So at this time we cannot hazard to say that the next bottom will be the bottom for this economic cycle.  In fact it could get so bad that a major recession starts and takes a full year to turn around.  However, as long as we can, we will try to estimate when the next tops and bottoms occur and the risks involved.  Giving the Obama-Hillary team the boot would be the best thing that Americans can do for the entire world at this point.

April 29 2016 The probable climax of the current Obama bear market has begun. The plunge into the second Obama recession is accelerating with the fear that corruption and incompetence could accelerate again under a Hilary Clinton presidency.

The very last economic growth area, home construction, appears to have topped.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction

Home prices have topped.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case

 

Retail sales have stagnated.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=retail_sales

 

Labor costs are inflating giving the FED ammunition to raise rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=hourly_eci

 

But the greatest threat to the American Economy is now Hillary Clinton who is favored in national polls.  So Hillary Clinton joins Obama now as the greatest danger to the economy and the stock market.  If they are rebuked by the electorate then the US economy and stock market will be unleashed and growing again in December just in anticipation of change.  But right now we expect the economy and stock market will now decline faster even than it has so far this year.  The bottom will probably move out to at least Election Day in November because Clinton is beginning to scare people.  Trump appears to be a White Knight this year.  He is calling attention to the Clinton-Obama incompetence and that is frightening people who did not realize how incompetent and corrupt the administration has been.  Under an honest American Government Hilary Clinton would already be facing charges for email violations of national security.

 

Looking back at Democrat Lois Lerner’s IRS harassment of Conservative sympathetic organizations in 2012, it is amazing that the Obama administration has not yet been sued for their illegal NSA and IRS harassment of innocent Americans.   Back then my wife and I were told by the IRS that we owed about $14000 with all the penalties they were adding and would have to appear in a DC court within three months.  I recomputed our taxes and told the IRS that they owed us $17 (we overpaid).   They ignored us so I then went to H and R Block and they computed that the IRS actually owed us $19.  Then the IRS stopped harassing us.  Friends of ours reported similar Obama-Holder-Clinton harassment.  Apparently a storm was brewing because of Obama/Holder/Lerner deliberate unconstitutional abuse of power.

 

Obama and his Justice Department and IRS were corrupt and harassing my wife and I for this blog and for belonging to a Historical Society.   Other historians were also harassed.   Federal personel attended TNT rallies and took down the names and addresses of people attending that asked for information at tables they had set up.  Even friends of ours in fundamentalist church organizations were also planning to take the IRS and Obama to court.  But Obama’s persecution was still not as bad as the Clinton Administration was when Clinton started monitoring Church pastors and ordered that when pastors criticize his corrupt government they be threatened with the church loss of its tax exempt status.  Back then their administration killed the family of a Green Beret recluse at Ruby Ridge and massacred over 70 men women and children of a Mormon sect in Wako Texas.  We don’t need another Clinton in power.  Obama and the last Clinton were bad enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsDBAixXJdM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9-Ih4H70MM

 

But now Obama and Hilary are even worse because they have been illegally using the NSA to tap the lines of political critics and reporters like James Rosen, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and a former West Virginia Governor.  The governors were illegally spied on, attacked, and temporarily discredited by the Clinton-Obama Administration so they would not run for President in 2012.   The two NJ State employees who were illegally framed for Bridgegate continue to this day to deny the fabricated Clinton-Obama charges and the case against then has been suspended for years.  Obviously Hilary Clinton and Obama illegally use the National Security Agency to sabotage people who expose the administration’s illegal harassment of political critics.  It was obvious they used the NSA super-computer to create the “Bridge-Gate” incident by piecing together random NSA phone and Internet records in a record two weeks time.   It is obvious from that speed that it was done that it was all illegal harassment and false federal accusations.   If there was any truth to the charges the trial would have already taken place.  But they know that a trial will expose the Hilary-Obama corruption.   American security has been compromised and NSA has helped Hilary and Obama make the world a more dangerous place.  Why didn’t they tap terrorist conversations instead and save American lives?  Why did Hilary and Obama first overtly lie and accuse an American-Jewish film maker of causing the Islamic terrorist riots and the murder of Americans in Libya. 

 

By illegally diverting NSA and the FBI to harass American critics Clinton and Obama have used them similar to the KGB.   Perhaps that is why the FBI has not charged Hilary Clinton yet for her home computer security violations.  Former Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama are responsible for the diversion of American National resources away from exposing corruption, and Islamic Terrorism, to their political harassment of Americans, and even to their fast and furious gun running to Mexican drug lords that resulted in the deaths of an estimated 30,000 innocent Mexicans.  Would Hillary spill the beans if she were prosecuted? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/justice-departments-scrutiny-of-fox-news-reporter-james-rosen-in-leak-case-draws-fire/2013/05/20/c6289eba-c162-11e2-8bd8-2788030e6b44_story.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-20825061
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/230367-mexico-amb-fast-and-furious-qpoisonedq-mexico-public-opinion-of-us

April 15, 2016 Less than a decade ago, the world economy sank into Obama’s Great Recession: beginning the deepest and most widespread downturn since the Great Depression of 1929-1936. Since the stock market fell in 2008, recovery has been long and slow, marked by persistent bumps in the road along the way. Nonetheless, a small fragile economic recovery has indeed taken place. The S&P 500 index rose more than 92% over the past five years until market volatility kicked in during the second half of 2015. So far in 2016, every one of the six major US stock indices has remained below the levels set in May of 2015. And still everyone on Wall Street is blind to the evidence that the world is now in chronic economic decline and rising social disorder. Evidence exists that the 2016 stock market blowout is now about to start!

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp

Abbot and Costello explain Obama and Hillary

COSTELLO:  I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject.  Terrible Times.  It’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO:  That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%. 

 

COSTELLO: You just said 5.6%.

ABBOTT:  5.6% Unemployed.

COSTELLO:  Right 5.6% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.

 

COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO:  WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?

ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed.  23% are out of work.

 

COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT:  No, Obama said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed.  You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

 

COSTELLO:  What point?

ABBOTT:  Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed. 

COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work. 

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

 

COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.

 

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number? 

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo. 

 

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Democrat.

COSTELLO:  I don’t even know what the hell I just said! 

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like Obama and Hillary.

April 6, 2016 Tesla’s Ludicrous Model X P90D—an electric all-wheel-drive luxury SUV—comes loaded with pollution and dangerous technology.

            The liquid-cooled lithium-ion battery pack (90kWh nominal) has safety issues as well as energy conversion and transmission issues that have been blatantly ignored.   Tesla Motors Model S electric cars are known to have caught fire after their lithium-ion battery packs were damaged.  The batteries are the largest component of the 2.5 ton Ludicrous P90D car weight.  MIT reported that the Electric-vehicle’s battery packs are made of hundreds to thousands of battery cells, each of which contains a flammable liquid electrolyte.  The lithium metal itself is inherently unstable especially if it gets in direct contact with water and creates dangerous flammable hydrogen gas and intense heat.  But the most Ludicrous stupid oversight of all the environmental idiots who claim Ludicrous is environmentally friendly is the fact that those stupid environmentalist apparently don’t know that coal and oil are burned to generate most of the electricity to recharge the Ludicrous batteries.  And when you consider the electrical transmission, AC-DC conversion, and charging losses that add 50% to the thermal and chemical pollution, the Ludicrous is much more polluting than a modern gasoline or diesel engines.   But then everyone knows the entire EPA bureaucracy is biased and not very bright.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/521976/are-electric-vehicles-a-fire-hazard/

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/lithium_ion_safety_concerns

April 4, 2016 The cyclic collapse of the US stock market is now imminent. An update is now relevant after another year of unprecedented manipulation of the economy by the US FED and many national banks.

            The world money supply has been increased so fast that it makes the US FED look cautious in comparison.  In spite of the $21+ Trillion Obama US debt expansion, the US economy is now faltering.   Worldwide there have been large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), referred to as quantitative easing (QE).  Despite lowering bank discount rates close to zero additional measures were needed to achieve a pitifully small 2% growth target.   Negative interest rates will initially occur if we enter an economic depression. 

            The aim of the QE program was the injection of a large monetary stimulus into the major world economies to boost nominal expenditure and thereby increase domestic inflation sufficiently to prevent a great depression.  Since the major world economies did this virtually in unison there has not yet been a great disequilibrium or destruction of national currencies.  But the result has already been stagnation and tens of trillions of national debt that would bankrupt all the major world powers if interest rates were to only hit 5% again (even if no payments were made to reduce national debts).  5% Prime Interest Rate has been the US historic average prime interest rate.  The Prime Interest Bank Rate even hit 16% at the end of Jimmy Carter’s “stupid party” administration when terrorists invaded the American Embassy in Iran and held sixty Americans hostage for 444 days until President Regan was elected on his promise to kick the Ayatollah’s ass.

            America has been taken hostage again this time by the Obama administration and the corrupt stupid-party politicians.  Americans of all incomes have now unified to sweep all the corrupt and stupid politicians out of office regardless of their political party.  But it is too late to stop the impending recession.   It will likely be worse than we warned a few months ago because the FED has delayed the correction too long.  Now it looks as though we will be in a recession for most of the remainder to this year.  Originally we predicted the recession would bottom in April and recover by this summer.

            The decline in the stock market started late in 2015 and is now showing up in all the financial and economic indicators.  That means Obama and his corrupt “Stupid Socialist Party” will be thrown out this year in disgrace.

            U.S. home resales have fallen sharply in a potentially troubling sign for America's economy which had been thought immune to the global economic slowdown.

http://www.cnbc.com/existing-home-sales/

            Factory orders have been declining since the end of 2014.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=factory_orders

            The Leading Economic Indicators have peaked at almost the same levels as before the first Obama recession.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=LEI

            Construction spending seems to have peaked at a level below the Bush Administration peak.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=construction

            The ISM Manufacturing index appears to be tanking.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=ISM

            The fake under reported Obama caused unemployment rate stands at 5%.  The under reported real unemployment rate stands at about 10% but when the additional under employment caused by Obama’s crappy-care (30 hour part time exclusion for federal medical benefits), the real unemployment rate now approaches 20% for the first time since FDR’s Great Depression of 1933.

            The shrewd businessman, Donald Trump appears to know how to sort out the Obama/Clinton mess.   Trump knows that “Free Trade” is not the same thing as Mexico giving free land and tax breaks and loans for American companies to move manufacturing to Mexico.   Trump knows free trade is not the same as China unilaterally taxing American imports or refusing to import many American products that their people desire.   Donald Trump knows that Americans know that Obama is totally incompetent and Hillary is corrupt to the core.    Trump knows how to build an honest productive organization, a government of competent people, not prevaricating corrupt political hacks.  And Americans now are beginning to like Donald Trump’s ability to distinguish reality from the liberal news media and the Clinton-Obama bullshit.

           

Feb 12 2015 All the five major indices we follow have now broken down and have given sell signals in both their price and cash flows. The DJI was the last to fall.

        One of the turning points in the 2012 presidential campaign was when Republican nominee Mitt Romney privately said that 47 percent of the population -- supporters of President Barack Obama -- were people who are "dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it."  He was correct but it was not politically correct and unfortunately Romney lacked the courage to have the data documented to prove the point.  “PunditFact” a “stupidparty” offshoot not only proved Romney’s point but Louis Jacobson, in his effort to discredit Romney shows how the situation actually is now much worse.  Slowly welfare is creeping in everywhere with socialized education and medicine.  Thus children, seniors, and individuals in many working families are also receiving welfare since the “stupid party” took over.

“PunditFact” posted, “Just because you’re receiving means-tested (welfare) benefits doesn’t mean you’re not working. According to 2012 Census Bureau data, roughly 23 percent of households with at least one working adult received means-tested benefits.

For Medicaid, 28 percent of recipients between the ages of 18 and 64, worked full time, according to the Census Bureau. (Another 15 percent of recipients in that age group worked part time.)

Other means-tested benefits show considerable overlap with the population of working adults. Roughly 60 percent of food stamp recipients who were of working age and weren’t disabled were employed while receiving benefits, according to a Census Bureau sample calculated by the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.”

  Instead of discrediting Mitt Romney, PunditFact proves that the spread of welfare is much worse than Mitt Romney said.  Almost all American families are now partially on the dole today with some sort of aid, scholarship, training, medical, senior or other program.  It is called creeping socialism and it can destroy any economy.  The socialist cure for poverty actually is a creeping contagion of self pity and resentment that drops the entire population into a state of “equality of poverty.”  That is why the Soviet Union collapsed and why the replacement of socialism in the USSR and China with free-enterprise has revived all them and other former communist socialist nations.  That is why Obama’s “stupid party” welfare has destroyed the American economy just as it is destroying the most socialist of European economies.  The American cure is to give the entire Obama-Hillary “stupid party” the boot so that the market economy can re-boot and investments will flourish again.   Socialism is the root cause of the Obama-Hillary induced American.  Giving socialism the boot this year is why Trump and 15 other candidates saw an opportunity in running for President.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jan/28/terry-jeffrey/are-there-more-welfare-recipients-us-full-time-wor/

 

2/4/2016 The DJI, Nasdaq, and S&P are all testing their price breakdown lows again. On a cash flow basis they had already broken down on January 7. The NYSE and Russell 2000 had broken down both on a price and cash flow basis on January 7. This final DJI, NASDAQ, and S&P price breakdown will trigger the last major selloff we have been anticipating. The final sequence of the market drop is close at hand. This is the third breakdown attempt. The first two market attempts were Jan 21 and 27.

2/3/2016  The Obama-Hillary administration has been a foreign policy and a national disaster with security breaches.  Corruption and unconstitutional retaliation using IRS, Justice Department, NSA and other government agencies has never been worse in American history.  Demand for commercial and industrial loans has plunged as we enter 2016.   Large and midsized businesses already suffered a 11.1 percent decline, while demand from small businesses fell 12.7 percent.  Friday's report showing that gross domestic product grew at just a 0.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter dashed all hopes for economic liftoff.  “Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, put it this way.  "Furthermore, banks reported that the weakness in demand for loans from businesses was primarily because the latter were scaling back their investment plans," he added. "That suggests any rebound in investment in equipment in the first half of this year (2016) will be muted at best. With the mining, manufacturing and agriculture sectors all hurting, we hadn't expected much from business investment this year, but the drop off in loan demand is worse than we would have expected." 

          The stock market is trembling in fear and poised for what we expect will be the largest market decline of the Obama-Hillary legacy of incompetence, stupidity, and corruption.   That should end with a partial market recovery as Americans look forward to throwing the current administration out in November.

       2/1/2016   Government data showed how tepid global growth is exposing anew the fact that the nation's long and sluggish recovery has ended.  And consumer confidence never even achieved the pre-“stupid party” era before Obama-Hillary.  Factory orders continue to contract.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/29/u-s-to-release-figures-expecting-to-show-fourth-quarter-growth/

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=factory_orders

            The stock markets are still hovering over the January decline awaiting the next plunge as a world wide depression threatens all markets and trade.  The Donald Trump phenomenon is the only hope now that corrupt repressive socialist stupidity could be erased next year.  But this year is still looking like even more of the Obama-Isis-Clinton chaos in the world and American economy.

1/28/2016 On a cash flow basis all five indices we follow have been saying sell since January 7, 2016. On a price basis only the DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P are at their lows and attempted and struck out three times trying to give a buy breakout. Any day now we expect investors will capitulate and we expect the next plunge to be worse than we had in early January. If the plunge in early February is worse than in early January, then we estimate that the following plunge could set the bottom for this economic cycle. It is however more probable that we will face a third stock market decline before the bottom. When it is over all the imaginary geniuses on wall street will see past their terrible advice and pretend to know what they are talking about. We believe that the best of all the economic analysts is Economist Mohamed El-Erian.

         1/27/2016  Both the 65 day moving averages and the 200 dma’s are becoming cliffs and a huge selloff climax should be coming soon.   Then we expect a small rally and a final test of the lows to determine if the bottom has been established.  The industrials are correlated with the economy and the aerospace sector is a leading indicator.  They have already peaked and that says the economy is now entering a recession.  Crude oil and the stock market recently have been correlated leading indicators.  When energy demand peaks the economy is peaking.  Lower production means a lower energy demand.  If the stock market bottoms in April it means the economy will be bottoming just about election time.  That would mean a likely clean sweep of the “stupid party” out of both the executive and legislative branches and real government again instead of illegal harassment of critics, corruption, incompetence, inaction, and executive orders.  That would also mean a roaring bull market a year from now.

https://www.google.com/search?q=oil+price+charts+historical&rlz=1T4NDKB_en___US566&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjT0_-HpMrKAhUFsYMKHSDPAq0Q_AUICCgC&biw=1469&bih=594&dpr=0.93

1/23/2016 Next week we expect the current feeble correction will expire and the second half of the January stock market plunge will begin. The most probable day for the next stage to begin is Wednesday Jan 27. That will most likely complete the second half of the largest decline this year. We then expect a visible encouraging bounce followed by a longer more gradual decline to the bottom of this bear market. That will be followed by testing of the bottom. We expect that sometime between April and the end of May the bottom will be set for this decline. That will depend on what the collateral damage is from the collapse of several asset and risk investment classes. Our first warning was October of 2014. Our final warning was August 2015 and after that it was only a matter of time. Since early 2015 our scenario and predicted end date has not varied very much.

       Peggy Noonan of the WSJ still does not understand the Trump phenomena.   This is not the regular election of an incompetent leader of a corrupt government with an educational system run by politically correct ignoramuses who think they are Cherokee and Castro reincarnations.  We know the IRS and Justice Department are thoroughly corrupt and it is becoming increasingly evident that even the FBI and NSA have been infiltrated by Obama’s corruption and the incompetence of Clinton, Obama and his 50 Czars.   Massive layoffs in Washington will be needed before we can rebuild the American infrastructure and American forces.  The next administration is America’s best chance to clean house starting with the IRS and Justice Department that were used to harass Honest and intelligent Americans who are now coming out in full force to vote.  If the FBI and NSA don’t revolt soon and tell the truth to the American people, several officials may be indicted for not indicting the Clintons and giving the Clinton’s a fair trial to explain the reasons for all their lies.  Lying and blaming a Jewish American film maker for Clinton-Obama incompetence on the eve of the 9-11 anniversary is about as anti-Semitic and inflammatory as it can get.  It cost Americans at Benghazi their lives and shows how stupid, incompetent, and corrupt the Obama-Clinton government still is.  They just won’t ever tell the truth!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MBjAN7jqsQ

Americans are very, very angry with the incompetent, corrupt and stupid people that the “stupid party” has put in government/

http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/01/18/judge-jeanine-slams-haley-gop-establishment-start-supporting-your-partys-frontrunner

1/19/2016 It is time for a short stock market bounce from the August 24 resistance level. But we think it will fizzle in about a week when the 65 day moving average looks like it went over a cliff. The WSJ showed the 200 dma today because even though it is bearish the 65 dma is about to look much worse.

     Walmart is closing 126 stores after Christians and Jews reacted to the attacks of American freedom of religion.  Hilary Clinton blamed an American Jew for the Benghazi murder of the American Ambassador.  A new movie, 13 Hours is out and the wives of the Americans murdered in Benghazi claim that at the funeral they were personally told by Hillary that it was a Jewish film that caused the attack.  Both Hilary and Obama are corrupt anti-Semitic politicians.  Now the Inspector General has announced that Hilary had the highest level of Top Secret documents on her terminal which China, Russia, and North Korea could easily identify and access.

We are glad we did not recommend buying into yesterday’s rally. Today it seems as though everyone has read our blog and thinks the bear market will be over before mid year. But only our blog said the bear market would be recognized as underway by the end of 2015 as we said at least a year ago.

Also we predicted the current bear market was likely going to have the largest drop before the recession is recognized and there will be a final market drop March-May 2016.

1-14-16 Wall Street commentators know so little that they have to personally go through a stock market collapse before they learn that the stock market leads the economy up and down by about six months. That is why the stock market is going down now not in six months from now when the layoffs and corporation bankruptcies are announced. The enormous IPO speculation we have had this year collapses when it is already too late to get out and that causes financial institutions to sometimes collapse. The last time on 2007-2008 the financial collapse was caused by financial derivatives that were supported by the Liar-Loan fraud that Dodd-Frank-Obama got their new Fannie and Freddie loan institutions to create to allow blacks to get loans at low rates that jumped to a conventional rate after two years. Smart people sold those houses before the payments doubled or tripled but many others went bankrupt. The bankruptcies caused home ownership to drop from 66% of the American population to 62%, as the housing market collapsed. Cheap mortgages were one of Obama’s first announced successes which he claimed as a Senator. Now he talks positively about his crappy health care program which has caused economic stagnation as people lose full time jobs because many employers cannot afford to pay 40% more for Obama’s socialist health plan than for a private employee health plan they previously offered full time workers. Only part time workers are subsidized by Obama’s plan.

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-trader/IPO-opportunities?imm_pid=700000001008518&immid=100084&imm_eid=e6632780366&gclid=COnlgrzXqcoCFQHd6QodcIsAqQ&gclsrc=ds

         The small bounce we expect at this point could be as much as 10% to 15% with several leveraged volatile ETF’s of which about 5% might be captured by the average investor.  That probably would not cover the risk of going long on this current bounce.  It is time to position for the next major decline of more than 15% which for leveraged bearish ETF’s could be a 40% to 50% gain of which 20% to 30% could be real for the average investor.  This coming decline will in all likelihood in hindsight be lumped into a January-February decline which we think will be the worst decline of the developing recession.  So we are still talking about a bottom before May.   We hope in fact for an earlier bottom but we have an incompetent administration, an FBI investigation of a corrupt “stupid party” presidential candidate, and worldwide Islamic terrorism that could be the recipes for a colossal disaster this year.

           1-13-16  The stock market’s manipulated indices, the DJI, NASDAQ, and the S&P all hit strong resistance levels and stopped falling today.  They are the cherry picked indexes that the WSJ likes to use.  However on a cash flow basis they all broke down.   The other two indices, the NYSE and the Russell 2000 broke through both their price and cash flow resistance levels.  Now we expect a rally and then followed within about two or three weeks, by another plunge greater this current  one.  Each plunge gets worse because even though the magnitude could be the same, when the market is down 50% the same point plunge is twice the %value plunge.  It is simple math.

           1-12-2016   The socialist press still can’t get the unemployment situation straight.  They are stupid and love the “stupid party.”  They cannot explain why the economy and the stock marked stink and the unemployment level is not bad.  Let’s explain it to them for the fifth time.  The reason the unemployment rate appears artificially low is because it is entirely the artificial benefit of forcing American corporations to pay the insurance costs of anyone working more than 35 hours a week.   Therefore corporations have been cutting hours so that “Uncle Sap” Obama will pay the health costs of the 35hr hamburger helpers.  Unemployment only appears lower entirely because you need 15% more employees working less that 35 hrs to make up for the artificial limit Obama set to free employers of the cost of Obama welfare.  That means 6% unemployment is really 7+%.   And if we add in the number of workers who have given up looking for work the unemployment is 14%.  And if we add in the people who have chosen government welfare the non-working population is 22%.  Obama is the world’s biggest fraud. 

        Wall Street and European stock markets fell on Monday, worsening a brutal start to 2016, as a plunge in beaten-down oil prices and a fresh tumble for Chinese shares gave investors more reasons to sell.   After rising in morning trading, the major U.S. indexes reversed course and it was their worst five-day start to the year in history.

Fears over China's economy contributed to last week's declines but in truth the developed world is now going into a long overdue recession.  Oil prices declined for a sixth straight session to start the new year, as we predicted and will only rise when the economies of the developed world bottoms out.   While the market may take another breath it is still doing a deep dive.

           1-11-2016   The American stock markets had its worst week in history last week.  The drop was about what we predicted but more abrupt.  Usually it needs more time so there could be two or three more days before a pop.  And as we have estimated the next drop after a small rebound will be the worst drop of all, and then the last decline should set in the market bottom.  That is only based on how many financial excesses need to unwind.  That is to say we only expect the bottom to occur when the house of cards has collapsed and we have seen several bankruptcies in process.   We expect startups and oil companies to get hit the hardest.

Continuing unemployment claims  as of 12/26 hit a record 2,230,000 people even though Obama still claims the unemployment rate is continually dropping and the period that one can receive unemployment has be fixed for several years.    That claim is just plain stupid as Americans recognize as a predominant trait of the current party in power, the “stupid party.”

1-13-16 Hillary was a liar, Zeifman said in an interview. "She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. Dan Calabrese's 2008 article presents one of Zeifman's chief complaints about Hillary, that she supposedly "dishonestly" drafted a brief that argued President Nixon's counsel should not be allowed to participate in the Judiciary Committee's evidentiary hearings, even though a precedent from a few years earlier had seemingly established that a federal official facing impeachment should be allowed such representation:

          The actions of Hillary and her cohorts went directly against the judgment of top Democrats, up to and including then-House Majority Leader Tip O'Neill, that Nixon clearly had the right to counsel. In order to pull this off, Zeifman says Hillary wrote a fraudulent legal brief, and confiscated public documents to hide her deception.   The brief involved precedent for representation by counsel during an impeachment proceeding. When Hillary endeavored to write a legal brief arguing there is no right to representation by counsel during an impeachment proceeding, Zeifman says, he told Hillary about the case of Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas, who faced an impeachment attempt in 1970.   "As soon as the impeachment resolutions were introduced by (then-House Minority Leader Gerald) Ford, and they were referred to the House Judiciary Committee, the first thing Douglas did was hire himself a lawyer," Zeifman said.    The Judiciary Committee allowed Douglas to keep counsel, thus establishing the precedent. Zeifman says he told Hillary that all the documents establishing this fact were in the Judiciary Committee's public files. So what did Hillary do?

         "Hillary then removed all the Douglas files to the offices where she was located, which at that time was secured and inaccessible to the public," Zeifman said.  Hillary then proceeded to write a legal brief arguing there was no precedent for the right to representation by counsel during an impeachment proceeding — as if the Douglas case had never occurred. 

          1/11/16  Time Magazine just came out and said that the polls indicate that while young women do not support Hilary old ladies still do.  Young women see Hillary’s checkered past and loose lips that lied and that killed Americans in Benghazi as a threat to equality with men.  Young women do not want Cherokee impersonators either.  Many young women are becoming successful entrepreneurs now and don’t want to wait 50 years for a Hillary-Obama cloud to disappear.  In addition the magazine said the GOP now thinks that Trump is a better candidate than that the Goldwater reincarnation that just won the Christian Conservative Caucasian Caucus.

            Germany now reports that over 600 young German women have been sexually assaulted since New Years by gangs of what appeared to be Moslems.   One can only imagine the level of rage that now exists in Germany and the consequences that will eventually be very, very bad for Moslems.  Political correctness is now dissipating throughout the Free World and the political consequences of bad Moslem behavior will be a new socialist intolerance to “sub human” behavior.  That is what the National Socialists called it.   Socialists like a smooth cradle to grave existence and eliminate those who do not fit their mold. 

          In America, Obama and his socialist “stupid party” had the Republicans and the Tea Party targeted by the IRS because they did not fit his socialist political mold.  But sexual assault fits the socialist category of subhuman.   In the USSR socialist women goose-stepped right along with men in parades.  Once the socialists declare a people subhuman as ISIS already does, then there are no limits to their brutality.  The National Socialists and International Socialists in Germany, the USSR, and Red China killed over 30 million, 60 million, and 90 million so called “deviant people” respectively while they were in power.  Mid Eastern socialism has done nothing so extreme in comparison.  But ISIS and other self-publicized sexist religious groups are now putting the entire Moslem world at risk of eventual extermination by politically correct socialists who find Moslem sexism both abhorrent and subhuman.

1-9-2016 The American economy and the stock market are being destroyed by dangerously incompetent politicians running America. That is why we are compelled to talk about them. The FBI has now shown that Hillary Clinton already knew in 2011 that for security reasons it was dangerous and illegal for her to use her unsecured personal computer/server and email system. The Wall Street Journal reported it today on page A4. Hillary actually sent an unsecured email complaining that some expert she didn’t like had sent her a classified email from his own personal server. Hillary has been shown to be a Benghazi liar and now a contemptuous security risk. (Well if he can do so, so can I!)

 http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-expressed-surprised-when-state-department-staffer-useda-personal-email-account-1452276985

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/politics/hillary-clinton-personal-email-staffer-state-department/

         It appears that someone in Obama’s administration thought that giving Cuban dictator Fidel Castro a top secret small guided missile (without the explosives or fuel) would be a good ice-breaker and show Fidel that Obama trusted him to keep it top secret.  Fidel could then trust Obama to give Fidel other things if Fidel re-established a cordial trusting relationship between his brutal communist dictatorship and the USA.  They were successful but now Obama is engaged in a cover up of the Cuban missile gift.  Obama unfortunately has had no luck finding out who sent it.  He just can’t seem to find the paper trail so that the FBI and Justice Department can identify the culpable American spies and traitors that signed off on this treason.  The missile was sent first to Europe where the paperwork was laundered and then it was sent to Fidel Castro with the love and admiration of guess who?   Who else would do it?  This is on page A6 of the WSJ.   Fidel guessed it was the Obama administration and later said he was now open to discussion.  Apparently it happened in early 2014.  The origin of the idea has not yet been traced to the state departments Hillary Clinton or of the John Kerry.  But John Kerry has been focused on the Mid East fixing the messes Hillary left behind.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/politics/cuban-missile-delivery/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/missing-u-s-missile-shows-up-in-cuba-1452213667

          Hillary Clinton as other liberals in the “stupid party” worry about sexism in America but they say it is ok for Moslems to physically and sexually demean women and children down to the age of nine years in countries like Afghanistan, Syria and most other fundamentalist Moslem countries.   That is their religious custom as well as decapitation for infidels.  Stupid party liberals and progressives like Hillary and Obama say there should be no vetting or other restriction on Moslems seeking asylum in the USA.   But vetting existing American gun owners makes sense to them even though the ones that have good records.  Intelligent Americans think we should not tolerate fruitcakes regardless or their religion much less come into this country or to get a license to carry weapons.   Established law abiding gun owners are already vetted by their crimeless records.  In fundamentalist Moslem countries women walk behind their men and if they speak out of turn or fail to cover themselves completely they are beaten, raped and sometimes murdered.  Over 100 women in Germany discovered this quaint Moslem religious proclivity this New Years.  None the pretty German girls were murdered but two were raped, and the rest were felt up and robbed by the Arabic speaking assailants.  Hillary and Obama don’t think Moslem immigrants should have to swear allegiance to the American flag and to the American Constitution or any other American laws because that would be profiling.   Many in the stupid party do not like the American Constitution because they say the Founding Fathers were bigots.  Most stupid party politicians say that vetting Moslems would be offensive and would violate their religious traditions such as spontaneous community religious stoning or religious beheadings.   Moslem religious laws take precedence to civil laws most places.  The police in Germany did nothing because they thought they would be accused of being anti-Moslem.  We can pretty much guarantee that Angela Merkle will never be trusted or elected again.  Hillary cannot be trusted.   Now Hilary is even a well known national Top Secret level security risk. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35271171

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/01/09/merkel-germany-sexual-assault-new-years-eve/78552046/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/08/cologne-violence-suspects-include-asylum-seekers

            If you look at the plots at the top of page B6 of today’s WSJ you can mentally calculate that at the end of January these 65 day moving averages will be panicking investors  because the first bullish part will be gone and only the down days will be shown.  Only a rally within a few days can help offset a panic in a few weeks.  Therefore we expect a breather rally in a few days.

1-7-2016 The Wall Street use of a 50 DMA set a distorted and incorrect bullish tone for six months already while the 200DMA did not. So they did not show the 200DMA very often because it showed the truth. Now, within three weeks the 50DMA should also be showing the truth that bear market is at full steam. We think the WSJ does a disservice to most investors by presenting a myopic view of the market and not showing the NYSE and other broader exchanges. Showing the highly manipulated DJI and NASDAQ only allows big investment to crush small investor. Investors should always look at other exchanges. Here is the most important to watch, a canary in the stock mine.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$NYA,$SPX,$DJITR

         Most reported economic indicators show the US economy in decline:

Construction Spending Nov at -0.4% contracted -1.4% from the 1.0% direction in October

ISM Index Dec 48.2 down from 48.6.   Anything below 50 means manufacturing is contracting.

Auto Sales and Truck Sales all ugly and not reported on time.

Housing MBA Mortgage Index Jan/02 sharply lower at -27.0% for a record decline.  The worst we can recall.

MBA Mortgage Purchase Index reporting has been delayed.

ADP Employment Change Dec 257K still below the 300K standard.

Trade Balance Nov -$42.4B still a deficit

Factory Orders Nov -0.2%  

ISM Services Dec 55.3 down from 55.9

Challenger Job Cuts Dec -27.6% down from -13.9% 

         Apple Inc needs to hire a good CEO who cares about America and not NAMBLA.  Otherwise the stock will likely continue to plummet.  Perhaps someone will buy the company and clean house and then innovate again and turn the company around.  That is unlikely and we don’t expect Apple to be higher three months from now.  Nike is highly over valued and is the favorite footwear of people with inferiority complexes who believe the Nike advertizing and find it to be their ego booster.  Nike is another stock to avoid.  Oil stocks will probably be one of the best investment opportunities later this year.

          It is still not the time to be long in investments.

           1-6-2016  We have to revise our stock market prognosis downward now.  The stock market may continue to decline until a competent businessman is elected to lead and straighten out the world’s rapidly growing economic mess.  Another four years of “Stupid Party” government will result in further chaos and a world-wide economic depression.  That is the opinion of many Americans who are coming forward now to vote the “Stupid Party” out of office.  That is why a successful entrepreneur who knows how to take a basket case company through bankruptcy and turn it into a profitable company is now so much in high demand.  Candidate Donald Trump brought four failing corporate situations back from the grave that way and made them successful.   He did not bankrupt them he restored them by taking them out of debt under American bankruptcy law.  

          Obama with his “stupid party” have put the USA twenty Trillion dollars underwater and they continue to do stupid things.  Obama and the Clinton’s are too stupid to understand that what Trump did was the best for the companies he managed.   Now, the only way one can end a “Great World Wide Depression” quickly is for the entire world to quickly enter bankruptcy and start fresh again.  That is how we can save this planet.  But no Obama or Clinton lying fool could ever be trusted to straighten out the mess they have left us with.  Clinton and Obama only know how to bankrupt countries.  Donald Trump thinks he can restore a bankrupt country and he gives many concerned Americans new hope.  Hilary Clinton is obviously a continuing US security risk because she claims she does not know what she did wrong.  Hillary should be tried for her security leaks and for the slaughter of Americans at Benghazi.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/1/obama-presidency-to-end-with-20-trillion-national-/?page=all

        Brent Crude has now fallen to an eleven year low and is getting worse as Moslem dictators and fanatic religious leaders try to physically and economically destroy one another and have to pump more oil just to sustain their bitter, and murderous in-fighting.   Meanwhile the world oil demand continues to drop as a worldwide economic depression begins to set in.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-fall-to-11-year-low-1452074961

 

          1-5-2016  Yesterday the Dow began with its worst opening day loss since 2008 when Obama was elected and the Dow went ka-thud.  But it did not stop there.  Stocks in 2008 went down in a range from about 70% to 95% excluding bankruptcies and buy outs.  The oil stocks that survived are now down about 87% on average.  This time however oil stocks will be hit even harder because the Mid-East Moslem nations are economically, socially, and morally self destructing as a result of the insanity rampant in ISIS territory and Iran.  Iran is about to start flooding the world with oil now that the sanctions were lifted by Obama. 

      In the western world we have a new problem called Afluenza.  When rich liberals become so open minded that their brains fall out it and they are mentally unfit and cannot distinguish right from wrong it is called Afluenza, an abstraction of the word affluence and a disease.  Many of the rich in the “stupid party” suffer from it.  The affluent liberal divorced women from Newtown CT who taught her son how to shoot was really responsible for the murder of the twenty grade school children in the deep blue state of Connecticut.   Obama is doing a good job taking action to have gun owners vetted to weed out the insane, inept, and others who are not vetted.    Essentially everyone should be vetted before permitted to have a gun. Based on the platform of the “stupid party” any gun toting member of the “stupid party” is by definition unfit to have a gun.    Vetted and trained American militia, hunters, and family members have the Constitutional right to have and carry a gun and keep a few guns.   The individual who bought the guns for the Sacramento terrorists should never have been allowed to own a gun much less buy guns for people who were never vetted.   The test should rule out stupid people who have no common sense, by definition the members of the “stupid party”.  There are many gun ranges in the USA and anyone who wants to own a gun should pay to be vetted and trained on the safe use of guns.  Vetting should be done and signed off by qualified licensed individuals who should lose the license if even one of their trainees commits any first or second degree crime with or without a gun.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Hook_Elementary_School_shooting\

 

         Republican candidate Carson wants to take away the tax deduction for giving charitable contributions.  That is N.G. because it would pretty much end charitable contributions.  It would be better to have the charity pay the IRS back for the tax credit that the donating party got.  Better yet the Clinton Loophole that lets the Clinton’s all live high on the hog as millionaires should be closed because too many people in the stupid party cheat other Americans that way and then working Americans have to pay for the Clinton life style.   Hillary Clinton claimed poverty drove Bill and her to the public speaking circuit and that is why they created their self serving charity.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jun/9/hillary-clinton-dead-broke-poverty-drove-bill-and-/

        Intelligence agency officials have concluded that two of Hillary Clinton's emails did in fact contain 'Top Secret' information, as an earlier, separate, review by an inspector general revealed and that Hilary should have had them stamped and sent them from a secure terminal.  The Central Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency agree that she should have had the emails marked with the highest level of classification at the time she sent them.  Hilary Clinton lied and said she did not violate the law by using her unsecured personal email when she sent hundreds of documents that the FBI said were of secret and top secret nature.  She says she is not guilty because she is just stupid and never realized that is was the content of the secrets that she gave away and not the stamp on it of secret that she was also supposed to put on it that created the secret document.   Everyone in government, academia, science, and law knows that Hilary’s excuse is completely lame brained and she should be handled far tougher than General Petraeus was handled by Hilary and Obama who destroyed Petraeus.  According to the New York Times, one of Hilary’s emails contained information about North Korea. The Times did not provide specifics.  But Korea has been working on a Hydrogen bomb.

             A movie on Benghazi will be coming out this month.  It tells how Hillary Clinton allowed four Americans to be murdered and then lied and said the murders were not done by terrorists.  She also lied and said the murders were just a protest against a film made by a Jewish man and at the same time told her family and others that it was actually terrorism for which she by law was required to authorize protection when informed of the danger.   She lied and said that the Jew was guilty which means he was also denied his rights as an American Citizen just as the four murdered Americans were deigned their right to have diplomatic protection from Hilary’s State Department. 

       Russia’s director of military intelligence who was in charge having journalists critical of socialist Putin shot has himself died unexpectedly at age 58.  And in China several Hong Kong authors and book sellers who have been critical of the China’s socialist leaders have disappeared and have hot been heard from again. 

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/05/461997704/the-plot-thickens-in-the-mystery-of-hong-kongs-missing-booksellers

http://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-director-of-military-intelligence-dies-unexpectedly-1451921653

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/01/04/hong-kong-angry-at-china-over-booksellers-disappearance/

 

1-4-2016  Our envisioned second leg of the stock market decline that also begins Obama’s second recession has begun.   The net decline of this leg will be as big as the August decline plus it will probably take all that the November-December rally had added.  Therefore it will be significantly greater than any decline in the last six years and probably the largest decline of this bear market.  There should also be yet a third decline in the early spring before the economic mistakes and jokes are washed away.  Many of the so-called technology and internet startups will go bankrupt.  The energy sector will remain volatile and hit some new lows until the world wide shakeout continues through spring. 

             This recent Obama market bubble even catapulted a rapper into a capitalist corporation executive position.  Every joker with a glib tongue crowd-funded a start-up and became a “millionaire for a year”.  But private funding and crowd funding are now in a state of collapse and only the Banks are left again for IPO’s.  So that game has abruptly ended and it could take two years to be resurrected.

             The Chinese Communists are now panicking and are clamping on government controls to try to lock in gains and put the brakes on their economic decline.  They have yet to recognize all the wealth that has fled China as successful people seek to flee communism and become citizens in the West.  This is unlike every other decline in China since they introduced private enterprise.  It will be difficult for the Communists to avoid a real recession and significant unemployment for at least two years.

              But most serious is the possibility of World War of the East and West against the Middle East.  The Islamic terrorist insanity has united the former intransigent enemies of the East and the West.  We could see the East and West unite and divide the entire Middle East into about 200 inbred insane family related peasant tribal nations unless Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan start to behave in a civilized manner.  There is nothing like the threat of world insanity to unite all the remaining sane people of the world.

1-1-2016 The current Oil crisis is only in a beginning stage. It is nonsense when the Saudis say they can afford only $15 a barrel and still break even. In Islamic nations, due to their religious schooling system, only a few get western educations and the rest are therefore so incompetent and unstable that their government hires 95% of their oil field laborers from India and hires most oil field managers and engineers mostly from the EU and USA. All the foreign managers have a government chaperone that pretends to be in charge. Most of the Islamic population is poor and self employed (unemployable by western standards). That is why there is so much poverty and the government concentrates on religion to control the minds of their populations. There, self worth and the value of all human life are devalued with the loss of human pride and self initiative because self worth is based on a religious ideology alone. Only a small percentage of citizens there are Western educated and most of them work for the government not in oil production. Whenever they lay off foreign oil industry workers the workers leave the country and retire on their savings or find other jobs because foreign workers often get anywhere from two to six times their homeland salaries. That is because in Arab countries foreign workers are segregated into high-security restricted housing complexes because there is always a risk of Islamic radical violence toward foreigners. That is what Jihad is all about. Many truly believe in “convert or die.”

            Therefore the cost of oil production as well as the burden of the Islamic national government and religious Islamic government infrastructure is fairly rigid.  Costs do not drop even when the price of oil drops.  When times are good the government saves money in investments, but when a recession hits, the Islamic States take a huge hit because the value of most investments also plummet, especially the oil related investments that are already down over 60%.   That is what is happening right now again.  The price of oil has dropped due to overproduction because the Islamic producers literally can not afford to cut production.  How can they buy modern weapons, missile defense systems, and pay for atomic bomb projects if they don’t sell the oil even at a very low price? 

             But now the entire world economy is sputtering toward a new recession.  That means many countries in the world will enter something even worse, a depression.  The Economically inelastic oil producers are especially vulnerable.  Desperate poverty is now overtaking the entire Islamic world again and they are migrating just as Europeans began migrating after the European Religious War (1617-1647) when Spanish led Catholic armies attacked northern European Protestants.  Christians then burned other Christians alive, give them the axe, and used horses to dismember some infidels.  Then we had the Christian reformation starting with Luther.  

           The entire Islamic world is about to enter their own Islamic Reformation and what needs to happen now is that Islamic martyrs must appear who will stand up to terrorists and become reformation leaders.  Some may die so that Islam can live on.  And that is also the cure for the economic depression in Islamic countries.  Islam will one day be reformed even beyond how Moslems have reformed within the USA and are now integrating into Europe.  The Arab people are very intelligent people just as others such as the Jews who live in the region.  Reformation is a reaction to the horrors of any tyranny.  The interpretation of the Bible and other religious books changed because humans and human values evolved to the point that Christians, Jews, Hindus, Moslems and all others now intermarry in most of the Western World.  The western democracies would do well to preserve and publish some of the history of the current Islamic martyrs.

            Ok, so what does this have to do with the American stock market in 2016?  Well what we are seeing today is a breakdown of Islamic nations that have fragmented many times due to tribal feuds.  But this time many Islamic people are saying enough is enough.   Revolutions are coming!   This time instead of blaming “western devils” they are seeing the ISIS Islamic devils and aristocratic type Syrian dictator devils close and up front.  It is an enormous strain on the Turkish, Saudis, Iranian, Iraqis, and other more advanced Islamic nations.   That is why oil prices will fall farther.  They have Islamic police and defense expenses, falling investment values, and falling oil income that are cataclysmic.  Their greed has overpowered their ability to control oil production.  The Islamic world is about to implode as prices continue to drop and the economic depression rapidly spreads.   That will force a reformation just as the European dictators, aristocracies, and Bishops were thrown out of power due to the European economic depressions, atrocities, and famines.

        How does that affect the Free World this year?  Well ancient China and many other nations were not initially affected by the Western Revolutions, so the USA and EU can similarly weather the toppling of Islamic dictators and Islamic family aristocracies.  But oil prices will fall farther until their Islamic world economically implodes or common sense prevails in the Islamic world ... we hope the latter!

         We hope the new intelligent Islamic leaders realize democracy, and religious freedom is everywhere essential.  Even former atheistic China has come a long way economically and culturally and so can the Islamic States when they become Free Nations.  Changes will not affect the USA or EU very much because when any nation goes bankrupt their oil production will decline and help prices rise.  A low price of oil cannot sustain Islamic governments, so the revolutions will begin to disrupt production until Western freedoms and democracy arrive in the Islamic world.   

           It could take several months for religious and economic disruptions of oil production raises oil prices above the fracking costs of about $40/barrel.  We estimate that first the price of oil could even drop to $20 per barrel.   But it has almost no chance of dropping to $15 per barrel.   

            The fact that our American government is becoming more corrupt and incompetent could cause a crisis in our government and the economy in 2016-2017.  The coming US economic recession could unfortunately develop into a depression given the current incompetent US government and leftist presidential candidates that threaten to take office.  One particularly irresponsible candidate used her personal computer for all email communication while she was the Secretary of State.   She was stupid, incompetent, and dangerous with regard to national security for sending and receiving Secret and Top Secret messages using her unsecured home computer.   The FBI said over twenty of her messages were Top Secret and hundreds more have been declared secret information.   Any honest American can be arrested for sending just one secret document.  But a corrupt “stupid party” candidate said she didn’t think anything she did was secret!    Isn’t that stupid?  Come on admit it!  She was stupid and her argument is stupid.   She makes Obama look competent in comparison.   Who would have believed this incompetent government could become even more incompetent, and more dangerous when the next American President takes office in January 2017? 

           Our American economy depends on how the current US government handles the recession and the disruptions that are getting ever more dangerous.  Every office secretary in the White House either knows what information is confidential or is smart enough to know it is to be treated as classified information until instructed otherwise.   Corrupt people in government cover up violations of national security.   General Petraeus was sacked for much less by the very same people covering up Clinton’s breach of security.  This is a job for the FBI and it is about time the FBI does something to stop the destruction of our American democracy by stupid, corrupt, and incompetent politicians.  The FBI should also look into the contributions of rich Asian, Mideast, and other foreign organizations to the Clinton self serving charities and look into the enormous payments ostensibly given for Clinton’s thirty minute speeches.  The contributions appear correlated to reciprocal American favors from the office of Secretary of State Hilary Clinton. 

          In conclusion, the American political leadership already stinks a mile away and Americans are getting fed up.  The inbred mental retardation and resulting actions of American politicians is beginning to cause our economy to decline.  There is just too much incompetence, graft, and punishing government harassment. 

         They get businesses, corporate chairmen, and Generals to plead lesser charges and then they control and fleece them as the latest form of government blackmail.  JPMorgan Chase bank is a case in point.  They ultimately got fleeced every time Holder and Obama needed another infusion of cash into a pet project yet apparently the bank never did anything illegal.  The payments were in lieu of further corrupt government demands.  

          At best we face a serious economic recession this year.  If the FBI does not do their job soon, American confidence and trust in the entire government will decline further and with it we could face a time similar to what led up to WWII.  Let us hope America never elects a president as stupid, incompetent, and morally corrupt as the leftist British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain was.  But some think we already are past the point of no return.

 

An update on America’s Constitutionally protected rights.

           Walmart,  is the organization whose CEO recently led the NAMBLA attack on the American Constitution’s First Amendment that gave us  Freedom of Religion.   Walmart was the worst performing (earnings wise) company in the major indices in 2015.  Walmart was once the greatest and fastest growing company in America but now is run by a selfish leftist politically correct dunce who lacks an appreciation of America and the American Constitution.

            Steve Jobs made Apple the fastest growing and largest company in the world.  But its new CEO also put NAMBLA’s freedoms ahead of religious freedom.   Apple, after one year of inept management is now recognized as having the biggest dunce in the technology sector with nothing to show since the new CEO’s first product, the Big Apple Flop Watch.   You have to keep it plugged in to get charged.

             Most Americans do not discriminate against others but refuse to be forced to submit and kneel to anyone for any reason.  Religion is only one factor that shapes American laws and behavior.  Why should a Christian force a Jew or a Moslem to serve a pork diner at a wedding?  For them it could be serious religious conflict or mean even emotional damage.  So why should a politically correct Christian or NAMBLA member have the power to force a religious fundamentalist, a Jew or a Moslem out of business?   Is it so much to ask the leftist politically correct authoritarians to let a free people be left alone?  Why can’t people be left alone and not have to bow to all the demands of the easily offended politically correct dunce liberal leftist socialist personage? 

             Are the politically correct leftists so authoritarian like the socialists Hitler and Stalin were that they demand they be served by everyone?  Do the leftists think they are the new master race?  Based on their high level of unearned conceit, the arrogant politically correct leftist bullies must either be extremely ignorant or just stupid.  Some even convince themselves they are native Cherokees when they find it is the path to a professorship at Harvard.  Yes, native Americans also religiously believe the souls of their ancestors can enter anyone under the proper conditions.    So why shouldn’t Senator Elizabeth Warren be given the benefit of the doubt?  Perhaps she can be both our first woman as well as native American president.   Let’s wait for her!  Let’s draft her! 

          American education has been so dumbed down that most teachers and professors don’t know that both Hitler and Stalin were leftist, socialist, poorly educated political bullies, who believed they were superior and meant to rule with all powerful corrupt dictatorial  governments that ran people’s lives from the cradle to the grave.  You were either politically correct or they made you disappear.  They typically were democratically elected with 98% or more of the vote because people lived in fear.