Monday, March 30, 2009

The rally is over and volatility is high.

AIG employees given police protection in Konnekticut

Outraged Obama Brownshirt and death reaper dressed ACORN thugs and vandals have forced Connecticut to have to continue to provide special police protection for rich people. AIG was in a lockdown mode again on Friday. Many other Connecticut workers were affected because AIG shares office buildings with other companies. Yes, NAZIS got outraged very easily, as did KGB and other socialist who got whipped into frenzy by earlier "community activists". That is what community activists are trained to do. Outraged socialists don't usually know how to solve problems they would rather just kill them.

Obama plans to fire the GM president today or pull the plug on GM. Obama is wasting so much money showing how authoritative he is that it is becoming likely that America will eventually default and US treasuries will become worthless. Obama knows that Bob Brinker and others have advised the rich to go into "safe" US Treasuries so Obama is trying to make Treasuries worthless. Spending the USA into socialism is becoming more attractive to the socialists each day. This weekend Bob Brinker said that if interest rates rise to 5% the USA would be unable to finance all the debt Obama is creating.

America seems like it is being run by an administration that believes in socialism, global warming, and possibly the tooth fairy.

Market forces

The world is becoming more alarmed each day with the Obama Administration. This week the British "Economist" magazine expressed its disappointment with the lack of maturity of the financial advisors Obama has selected. The world is seeing that Obama is incompetent and say he is learning by making mistake after mistake because he has no experience or knowledge of financial matters. That is what a nation gets when it elects a teleprompter or a man with a wire in his ear being told what to say. This week will likely see the US stock markets collapse at an alarming rate.

Treasuries were falling all of last week indicating that worried buyers of treasuries want higher interest rates due to perceived higher risk. The FED therefore has been buying Treasuries to try to keep rates lower by increasing demand. But that shows the incompetence of the Obama administration because it means the US is printing money to make up for the fall off in treasury purchases.

That also shows the ignorance of the Obama administration because that is what Germany did before the Nationalist Socialists took over Germany in the 1930's. Hyperinflation in Germany outraged the Brownshirt thugs because the rich then profited buying diamonds and gold. The collapse and default of the German economy became the pretext for the democratic election of Adolf Hitler as their "Supreme Leader." Perhaps USA hyperinflation will allow Obama to consolidate his socialist power too.

The collapse of treasuries would drive interest rates higher. Hyperinflation would then be the only way to keep interest rates lower. In effect hyperinflation is a slow method for defaulting on all national debt obligations. We must not delude ourselves into thinking that buying gold is a way to avoid bankruptcy along with the socialist government. The socialists confiscated the wealth of everyone in the end. Germany is still paying reparations for the wealth the Nazis stole from the rich. When a nation steals from the producers to give to the non-producers everyone goes either into poverty or into a concentration camp.

Market Outlook

U.S. stocks faltered on Friday. This rally appears to be over. This is a trader's market not a long-term investors market.

Asian shares were down last night with Shanghai down 0.7%, India down 4.8%, Japan down 4.5% and Hong Kong down 4.8%.

European markets are down now in the range of -2.1% to -3.2% mid way through their day.

US futures indicate the DJI will down about 100 points at the start with all the American equities markets in serious over bought situations after a 21% run up in prices.

Trillions of dollars from the stock market value has evaporated and the loss of millions of additional jobs looms as Americans worry if Obama intends to transform the recession he inherited into a depression. Since the recession began in December 2007, the Federal Reserve has vastly expanded its balance sheet and cut rates to the lowest levels on record while lawmakers have signed off on trillions of dollars in spending. That is what FDR did and thus became mired in a “lost decade” with little to no growth. That would mean millions being homeless.

“My analysis indicates that something like a depression is more likely than not,” said James Rickards, senior managing director for market intelligence at Omnis Inc. He bases his assessment on his belief that the deleveraging process is only 25% complete and on unintended consequences stemming from incompetent monetary and fiscal policy.

While opinions vary, there is a general consensus that with a socialist leaning administration like the ones America and Germany elected in the 1930's the chances of a depression are greater now than they have been since then. And experts agree there are clear warning signs that precede a depression. The rise of Democratic Socialism is the biggest warning sign. Expecting a communist country like China to lead the world out of a depression is another sign of "The End".

“Consumers are panicked. Let’s face it. They are increasing their savings but they could do a lot more belt tightening,” said Hufbauer. The stock market could suffer another meltdown if consumer spending does to rise with congress's "Pork Bills." A Japanese type experience could also cause another slide in the nation’s already-weak housing market, which would put more pressure on the teetering financial sector. A “lost Obama decade” could very well be in the cards much like the lost decade of Franklin Roosevelt or of Japan.

The models for a lost decade is the 1930s under socialist leaning FDR, and Japan in the 1990s where a financial crisis lingered leading to very little or no growth. “It could haunt the whole Obama administration,” said Hufbauer

President Barack Obama seems unaware of this danger. “A lost decade is probably the best outcome we can expect,” said Rickards, who called for eliminating the capital gains tax and corporate income tax two things (unlike reckless spending) that could help our economy. Obama just does not get it!

When a nation is heavily in debt and the debt bubble explodes the solution is not to spend more. The solution is to stimulate confidence, mutual trust, respect, community spirit, and productivity. Germany's socialist type solution was not sustainable and brought about World War II.

Yet Obama is taking Adolf's approach that stimulated wasteful spending, outrage/distrust, class hatred, and envy of producers with his mean spirited ACORN thugs and other political hacks.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Equity euphoria and the short squeeze subsides

Market forces

The rally that followed Obama's revelation last week that his economic policies would no longer be suicidal has begun to subside. The world was greatly relieved that Obama was not about to blow out the brains of American free market capitalism by driving stock prices to zero. That would have left the world without the only engine of innovation and creativity that pushes the world forward by making older products and entrenched labor forces obsolete and expendable. Only socialists and other demigods think they should be irreplaceable.

But now the world is beginning to see that Obama intends to strangle the US economy instead. Obama will double the current US debt of $30,000 per US citizen and then double US taxes to pay for it. Although U.S. President Barack Obama has urged other countries to increase their spending to boost growth, European officials have once again indicated that they have no intention of having their economies climbing the gallows and hanging themselves as Obama is doing in the U.S. According to ING, emerging-market-borrowing costs will increase to near record highs this year as governments and companies seek to make $760 billion of debt repayments and global defaults rise.

The dollar is marginally higher and the yen is rising in Europe Wednesday as currency markets continue to adjust to hopes of a U.S. economic recovery before Obama can wreck too much damage on the world economy with his economic poisons he calls his American health plan. His medicines seem designed to kill the patient.

Yesterday Geithner told Congress he needs the power not just to coerce banks but to move in and nationalize them.


Market Outlook

U.S. stocks on Tuesday handed back sectors from Monday's 7% rally, with financials leading the retreat just after Jim Cramer of MSNBC announced it was now the right sector to buy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points, the NASDAQ Composite lost 39 points and the S&P 500 slipped 16 points. The market is left searching for which peg leg of the market rally to lead the next advance.

Asian shares were mixed last night with Shanghai down 2.1%, India up 2.1%, Japan up 0.1% and Hong Kong down 2.1%.

European markets are generally down in the range of down 0.7% to 1.3% mid way through their day.

S&P 500 futures unchanged, and NASDAQ 100 futures added 1.5 points, and the Dow industrial futures rose 33 points. All the US futures are slipping at the present moment. The delirium that resulted from hearing words of economic hope coming from the lips of Obama is fading as his heavy-handed socialist agenda continues. Congress must oppose Obama's national suicidal tendencies or they will be looking for work in two years after the next Congress is elected.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Hedge funds that have been shorting heavily may now be insolvent and could cause another market collapse.

Market forces

That would be the capitulation we are all waiting for… the market bottom.


Yesterday the markets experienced a trader short squeeze that resulted in a large influx of cash with relatively few shares changing hands thus resulting in the enormous share price rise. Hedge funds that have been shorting heavily may now be insolvent.

Yesterday cash flowed into the market not from the sidelines but heavily from the market’s short side buying back many of the stocks that were previously shorted. The cause was new concerns that the SEC will institute a price up-tick rule and prosecute hedge funds and brokers that deal in naked short selling.

Naked short selling is an abuse that has gone unchecked for years. When stock holders refuse to allow brokers to loan out their shares to short sellers, some brokers began to pretend they were allowed and loaned out the shares anyway. When they were not prosecuted for those illegal transactions they took it a step further. The brokers began loaning out shares that did not exist. It is very similar to counterfeiting money but does not require a printing press. It is evident that these illegal actions were not even reported to the SEC and made it theoretically possible for hedge funds to short more shares of a company than the company had issued. That gave short sellers the financial power to drive a stock down to zero and buy it back. They depended on the SEC chairmen to be either inept or amoral corrupt liberals who thought making the New York and Washington party circuit was all they had to do to earn their tens of $millions. These are not conservative down to earth people they are people who think our money is their money and they are paid to look the other way.

We know this activity was going on under the SEC protection as well as possibly many other Bernie Madoff type Ponzi schemes. Cox and other SEC chairmen should be arrested imprisoned and have all their family assets confiscated for allowing illegal activities under their noses. In China they would take them out under a bridge and shoot them all.

We saw the evidence of naked short selling when financial stocks would stop plummeting the moment short selling was restricted by the SEC and then would plummet again each time the restriction was removed. Short selling can be stopped if the laws are obeyed and the stock holders do not allow their shares to be borrowed by short sellers. However devastating price declines cannot be stopped when illegal naked shorting is tolerated and especially when the short seller does not have to wait for an up-tick but simply sells the counterfeit stock down continuously.

One might conclude that this current trader short squeeze may be almost over and the markets will collapse again because there are few investors involved. But the squeeze could continue and wipe out many more hedge funds that have heavily shorted. We know they exist because they are the only funds that made money during the last six months. We could see the stock market rise about 20% more before the short squeeze is over and all the short funds including short ETFs are bankrupt. That will wipe out two or three $trillion more in 401 and other investor accounts. Pro shares would also be wiped out by the whipsaw and the market would then plummet so rapidly that the Fed and the Treasury might have to intervene. That will then be the time to buy.

Market Outlook

The financial press at this moment is exaggerating foreign market news as they try to put lipstick on the short squeeze that is devastating previously profitable hedge funds, ETFs, and the new derivative pro-share experiments.

Asian shares were up slightly last night with Shanghai up 0.6%, India up about 0.5%, Japan up 3.3% and Hong Kong up about 3.4% following the American short squeeze on Monday. The short squeeze probably will not be as bad in foreign markets because their SEC’s are not as corrupt and inept as the US SEC.

European markets are mixed in the range of down 0.9% to up 0.5% mid way through their day.

American market futures are down today before the market opens. The squeeze may resume and the market could rise until the affected funds are bankrupt. A major sell-off is expected when the squeeze is exhausted and especially when the world realizes the pork barrel socialist medicine is poison to American intellectual and economic survival and the world's capitalist growth engine is being dismantled and sold off to provide for the new socialist state.

Private companies are now invited to participate with the government in buying up toxic assets. Beware; any company that partners with the Obama Administration will be nationalized before this is over.

The American economic engine of capitalist innovative creative destruction is all the world recently has had to propel it forward. But the socialists are about to kill it and feast on its carcass just as great socialist economic cannibals have done to capitalism in the past. That is the new toxic socialist plan that will replace the toxic socialist mortgage program that caused the financial melt down in the first place.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Toxic bank bailout plan to be announced today

Market forces

Today we are beginning to see the Obama administration and their big media glad handlers finally realizing Americans no longer accept their blame game. The bush administration never blamed the 2000 stock market dot com bubble burst on the Clinton Administration even though the markets peaked in March of 2000, eight months before the Bush election and were falling rapidly by November 2000. Unemployment was skyrocketing before the Bush inauguration. Yet President Bush was blamed for that recession and they tried to blame him for the 911 terrorist attack that was planned during the Clinton administration. In fact no one blamed president Clinton for the first terrorist truck bombing of the World Trade Center, the Janet Reno Wako massacre, or the Oklahoma bombing, all of which terrorized Americans. Nor did they blame him for the Dot-Com bubble. We had eight years of no terrorism since 911 and socialists give Bush no credit. Obama said he put us at higher risk.

So the world now welcomes the news that the Obama Administration has finally decided it is time to stop blaming others and do something about the Senator Dodd/Senator Rangle Banking Committee toxic junk mortgage crisis that the Democrat/Socialists created to give ineligible people houses.

The Obama Administration plans a $1.8 trillion deficit the first year. That is 350% more than the maximum deficit the Bush administration ran up during its eight years. In fact the Obama Administration has now planned over $9 trillion in total deficits to establish socialist control in America. It will cost more than Americans have spent in total from first President George Washington until today.

But the socialists around the world are rejoicing since they too have spend their countries into intellectual and economic poverty and this debasement of America will flood the world with cheap dollars so the failing currencies around the world will get a boost.

We expect the market will do well initially because the Obama administration is finally addressing the toxic mortgages. However, the damage the democrat socialists are doing by throwing money at problems will come home to roost.


Market Outlook

Asian shares were up last night with Shanghai up 2%, India up about 5.1%, Japan up 3.4% and Hong Kong up about 4.8% following the decreased American buying Friday.

European markets are generally up in the range of up 1.4% to up 1.8% mid way through their day.

American market futures are much higher again today before the market opens. The initial expectation is that Geithner will say there is actually very few toxic mortgages that have not already defaulted and so the worst is already over. However, another sell-off is expected in a few weeks when the world realizes the pork barrel socialist medicine is poison to American intellectual and economic survival and the world's capitalist growth engine is being dismantled and sold off to provide for the new socialist state.

As the ideas of democrat socialism sink in, people will see there is no benefit under socialism for owning stocks because the stock market is used to generate capital for dwindling capitalism. Under socialism, taxes are used to generate the money for government control of everything. Ultimately the stock market will implode again as capitalism winds down and the effects of socialism, cronyism, groupthink, corruption, and "Ironweed" type politics stagnate the world economies.

The American economic engine of capitalist innovative creative destruction is all the world recently has had. But the socialists are about to kill and feast on its carcass just as all the great socialist economic cannibals did with capitalism in the past. That is the toxic plan of socialism.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Market volume remained high and the market turned negative

Market forces

The Obama administration sided with the socialist unions suing and trying to destroy Wall-Mart which has become a symbol of a sensitive capitalist company that has no need for Unions. The trumped up charges are discrimination based on competency instead of politically correct gender quotas. The Obama socialists are urging a federal appeals court to let the current and former workers sue as a group and proceed with the biggest sex-bias case in U.S. history in order to weaken and if possible destroy Wall-Mart as an example to all companies that think they can avoid socialist slowdowns and strikes by treating workers fairly. The difference between socialism and communions is that socialists use unions to bring industry to its knees. Once capitalism is destroyed the unions become the KGB within the industries to report on the workers because strikes and slow downs are forbidden under communism because strikes under communism are anti-proletariat.

The Wall-Mart stocks may become worthless in Obama's new proletariat dictatorial executive-congressional majority actively persecuting companies that try to ignore proletariat-socialists. The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is weighing in on the lawsuit for the first time since the union activists filed in 2001.

The dollar continues to weaken sharply. Wasteful and ignorant American dictatorial democrat-socialist government spending on political groups, thugs, and hacks spreads waste and corruption and undermines the US currency. It will raise the relative cost of foreign goods just as a US tariff on imports would. That will likely lead to the type of tariff retaliation seen in the Great Depression helping to further undermine American industrialism and surrender "cowboy" America to European international socialist courts and rule under international socialism.

For example ACORN is a political group that specializes in voter registration fraud and census fraud. The political thugs are the big bad boys who were arrested for standing at the doors intimidating poll workers who under democracies ask voters questions to prevent voter fraud. The political hacks are the folks who have the job of asking socialists easy questions and who are paid with political jobs to ridicule and heckle the opposition while pretending to be just regular people. They are required to show up at socialist May Day parades and wave red flags or they lose their political-hack benefits, which is usually a political job where they do nothing useful for society.

Natural resource stocks will rise in value as socialist spending causes more inflation. Americans are now being actively lied to by the Obama government and better get used to it. Under socialism and communism Americans will be told what they must believe. We first must believe that the proletariat dictatorship is not just always right but it always does what is in our best interest even if sometimes it may be there is no food in the stores, the Gulag for us or the gas chamber for our neighbors. Eventually the stock market will cease to exist because you will be told that freethinking ignorant socialists know much more than educated and experienced industrialists, and innovators.


Market Outlook

Asian shares had a mixed session last night with Shanghai up 0.7%, India down about 0.4%, Japan down 0.3% and Hong Kong down about 2.3% following the increased American selling yesterday.

European markets are generally mixed in the range of down 0.4% to up 0.5% mid way through their day.

American market futures are choppy but recently rising again today before the market opens. However another sell-off is expected. As the ideas of Obama democrat socialism sink in people will see there is no benefit under socialism for owning stocks because the stock market is used to generate capital for capitalists. Under socialism, taxes are used to generate the money for government of everything.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

The Obama administration now says the economic fundamentals are sound.

Market forces

The Obama administration now says the American economic fundamentals are sound. Last week they said the conditions had deteriorated to the worst they had been since the Great Depression. And during the campaign they mocked Senator McCain when McCain said the American economic fundamentals are sound. So how is it that things got worse and McCain was depicted as ignorant and deceptive presidential candidate but now the Obama administration is saying the same thing McCain said? We told you this would happen. We told you that at some point the Obama administration would realize that they were creating a great depression when none existed before. They were creating fear and uncertainty because they were ignorant of the history of the Great Depression and the many failures of Socialist policies then and over the last eighty years.



The Fed Chairman now says the economy will turn upward early in 2010. The volume of trading in this rally rose again to recent highs as the market turned downward again yesterday. A correction, perhaps a double bottom is in store for us this week.



Market Outlook

Asian stocks were mixed last night with Shanghai up 3%, India down about 0.9%, Japan up 3.2% and Hong Kong down about 0.8% following the American rally and then sell off yesterday.

European markets are down in the range between -0.6% to -1.3% mid way through their day following the American advance yesterday.

American market futures are currently mixed and down a fraction two hours before the market opens.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Finally the Obama administration realizes, "It’s the free market stupid."

Market forces

The volume of trading in this rally has remained about 20% lower than during the first rally before Obama was inaugurated. But finally Obama has realized that all his doom and gloom and administration flailing and denial of ownership could in itself be causing the economic crisis. Lets see if the market improves now that the administration seems to be changing its tone.

There is still no technical evidence that another bottom has formed. There is extreme optimism and positive political distortion of stock market facts now that the administration knows it has an effect. For instance we did not see a double bottom as many democrat-socialists now profess, it was a new 12-year low. But now at least they know that their tone matters.



Market Outlook

Asian stocks were up last night with Shanghai up 1.2%, India up about 2.1%, Japan up 1.8% and Hong Kong up about 3.6% following the American advance Friday.

European markets are up in the range between 2.3% to 2.8% mid way through their day following the American advance yesterday.

American market futures are currently up about 1%, two hours before the market opens.

Friday, March 13, 2009

The oversold market technical rally continues.

Market forces

The volume of trading yesterday remained about 20% lower than during the first rally before Obama was inaugurated.

Mad Money thinks this rally has legs because Jim Cramer thinks the socialists are beginning to realize that a lot of Americans have 401 plans invested in the market and Americans are becoming unhappy with the socialist's redistribution of wealth.

When the Roman Empire allowed illegal immigrant tribes to settle and receive free services and welfare the immigrant Vandal tribes soon decided the distribution of wealth was unfair.

So they socialized the economy by sacking Rome and the empire's wealth redistribution later became known as the fall of the Roman Empire and the term vandalism was born. Socialism is a form of vandalism that works only for the short period when the looted wealth is redistributed to the looters.

After the looting is over… poverty is all that is left for everyone unless the socialists do as the original communists did and invade and loot their neighbors or they do as the Chinese are now doing and go back to capitalist principles. For instance in China today they have no tax at all on capital gains and they have had an 8% national economic growth rate with little population growth. On the other hand in the socialist leaning South American republics they continually fail and population growth exceeds economic growth.



Market Outlook

Asian stocks were up last night with Shanghai down 0.2%, India up about 4.9%, Japan up 5.1%, and Hong Kong up about 4.4% following the American advance yesterday.

European markets are up in the range between 1.8% to 2.5% mid way through their day following the American advance yesterday.

American market futures are currently up about 0.4%, two hours before the market opens.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

The oversold market technical rally gets some support.

Market forces

The volume of trading yesterday fell sharply and the rally was halted by profit taking but not stopped. The bears appear willing to let this one rise a little. There is talk that president Obama's friend and wealthiest backer, Hungarian Socialist George Soros may not be shorting American stocks as much while still supporting the American dollar. That is because the big spending packages have now passed in Congress so the fearful shark attacks can subside a little. This could dramatically change the market dynamics. It will no longer be necessary for Obama to trash the markets to help short sellers like Soros make $billions as Americans lose their 401s become depressed and beg Obama for mercy. But on the other hand Soros is still needed to support the dollar or at least not attack the dollar. That is very positive. It could mean the rally will have legs for a while.

President Obama proclaimed that America is failing in the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Troop withdrawals have occurred. President Obama flies around the country in his personal B747 but now Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi uses military aircraft too to fly friends and even grandchildren around the world. Of course it is her duty to keep the military busy because the Socialist Democrats think of the military as their "Republican Guard." American soldiers are becoming so depressed by the Socialist politics that the suicide rate in the military now exceeds the numbers of soldiers being killed in action. Obama wants Americans to see the coffins of the men killed in action but is hiding the coffins of the suicide victims of his America trashing Socialist politics.

There is a broad movement of political discontent growing among Democrats and Republicans to throw everyone who is up for election in 2010 out of office… not just the Democrat Socialists. The feeling is that there is now so much corruption in government that a clean sweep is needed because they are all tainted and playing along.

The disgust extends to the entire Socialist Empire of the Washington beltway. This week even former successful GE Chairman and CEO, Jack Welch expressed outrage that he and others have felt the infringement on freedom of speech and that dissenters of Washington pork barrel corruption are mocked by the liberals of the press and at their drunken and drug stupor ridden parties.


Market Outlook

Asian stocks were mixed last night with Shanghai down 0.2%, India up about 2.2%, Japan down 2.4%, and Hong Kong was up about 0.6%.

European markets are down in the range between -1.2% to -1.8% mid way through their day anticipating the American profit taking today.

American market futures are currently down about 0.5%, two hours before the market opens. Profit taking is expected at the end of the day.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The oversold market has a technical rally

Market Psychology
United Technologies is going to lay off about 11000 professionals in addition to the 1000 they laid off last December.

Bank bond prices are at risk on concern that owners of formerly safe debt issued by U.S. financial firms will be forced to swallow losses if the industry needs another bailout. That is now causing the yields to jump to record levels compared with benchmark rates in the past month, even after taxpayers committed more than $11.6 trillion to prop up financial firms. With shareholders already nearly wiped out the bond holders are expected be have to swap bonds for new debt that offers reduced 1% to 2% interest rates or 10% of current face value bonds.

At this time we have no indication that the market could form a new bottom anytime soon but economists are now saying the administration's actions are causing damage that could take five years to unwind. And when it unwinds American 401 plans will take another hit as inflation exceeds the Jimmy Carter levels and simultaneously exceeds the Jimmy Carter levels of unemployment. Democrat Jimmy Carter called it his American malaise for which a new index was coined which was the sum of the national unemployment and inflation rates.

Wealthy Democrats like Warren Buffett almost completely avoid taxes investing in commodities and other tax shelters that appreciate with inflation but do not create income until sold much later under Republican administrations, and which unfortunately only hedge against American government spending/waste and do not create private sector jobs. Most commodities are mined in foreign countries. After so many Obama appointees had to quit because they falsified their tax returns it is becoming a joke among Americans that the reason Democrat-Socialists do not favor tax deductions and reductions in economic stimulation packages is because Democrat-Socialists do not pay taxes or have any charitable deductions. They think charity is the role of the socialist benovelent dictator.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is now the only one in government finance who has anything positive to say about capitalism. It is expected for that reason and others that Obama will not reappoint him to a second term. The American Democrat-Socialist agenda requires a complete breakdown of the free market capitalist system for a Constitution change and a power grab.


Market Outlook
The market has dropped so fast that relative to normal conditions it became oversold and a technical rally has been predicted for more than a week. Yesterday was the first leg.

Asian stocks were mixed last night with Shanghai down 1.9%, India down about 2%, Japan up 4.5%, and Hong Kong was up about 2%.

European markets are mixed in the range between -0.5%% to 1.0% mid way through their day anticipating the American profit taking today.

American market futures are currently up about 0.5%, two hours before the market opens but profit taking is expected before this technical rally resumes.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The market has dropped so fast that relative to normal conditions it appears oversold

Market Psychology

Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, said the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation much higher than Jimmy Carter's in the 1970s. “We are doing things now that are potentially very inflationary,” he said. “Patriotic Americans will realize this is a war,” he said.

Buffett said yesterday that Americans are fearful, confused and changing their buying habits, which is showing up as losses at Berkshire’s operating units. Berkshire’s shares have lost almost half their value in the past year as the bear market dragged down financial assets and the recession put pressure on profit from the company’s more than 70 operating businesses. While the recession will end and future generations will once again eventually live better than their parents, the economy “can’t turn around on a dime.” Obama continues trashing the American free market and capitalist system. It is quite possible that the economy will slide lower until Americans throw the socialists out of Congress in 2011.

At this time we have no indication that the market could form a new bottom anytime soon but economists are now saying the administration's actions are causing damage that could take five years to unwind. Creating make work government paid jobs and mortgage bailouts reduces the incentive of Americans to work productively or act responsibly while impoverishing the middle class that earns their living with productive work. It creates an incentive for wealthy Americans like Warren Buffett to avoid taxes altogether and invest in commodities and other tax shelters that appreciate with inflation but do not create income until sold much later when needed, and which unfortunately only hedge against government spending/waste and do not create private sector jobs. An army of government ditch diggers, street sweepers, and tree planters is no more productive than a real army of soldiers protecting against terrorism, and a lot worse for the work ethic and the psychology of the American people and economic markets.

Market Outlook
That all leads to the general expectation that the market bottom will be about 40% to 50 % lower. The market has dropped so fast that relative to normal conditions it appears oversold.

Asian stocks were mixed last night with Shanghai up 1.9%, Japan down 0.4%, India down about 2%, and Hong Kong was up about 3%.

European markets are up in the range between 1.2% to 1.8% mid way through their day anticipating a higher American market today.

American market futures are currently up about 1.5%, two hours before the market opens.

Monday, March 9, 2009

Obama’s “Great Depression” punishes investors as Dow continues to slump

Market Outlook

Asian stocks were down last night with Shanghai down 3.4%, Japan down 1.2 %, India down about 2 %, and Hong Kong was down about 4.8%. Japan is now down to where it was in 1982.

European markets are down in the range of 1.2% to 1.7% at this time.

American market futures are currently down about 1.5% two hours before the market opens.


President Barack Obama now has the distinction of creating his own personal bear market. A bear market is defined as a decline of 20 percent or more. The Dow average has dropped 31 percent since Obama’s election. The Dow average took eight months to decline 20 percent following the inauguration of George W. Bush, reaching the level on Sept. 20, 2001, nine days after terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20 percent alone since Inauguration Day, the fastest drop Bloomberg found for any new president in at least 90 years. The Dow has lost 53 percent from its October 2007 record of 14,164. Most of the drop is from when Obama got the media proclaiming America was in a Great Depression so that Americans would lose hope and Obama could claim he would bring hope if he was elected. Obama's negativism toward productive hard working people and his general economic and historical ignorance is creating the "Great Depression" he predicted.

Obama has shown he does not have a clue much less give us hope. Putting unemployed to work in government jobs is like putting people to work sweeping streets. It does nothing but destroy the wealth of the private sector that has to pay the the salaries of millions of government workers who only consume and do nothing for national productivity. Building high cost/maintenance windmills puts a handicap on the grid when nuclear power is the only source of energy that can meet world needs. The proven way for ending a recession is to stimulate the private sector. The proven way to create a depression is to do what FDR did and tax the private sector to pay for government busy work programs.

More than $1.6 trillion has been erased from U.S. equities since Obama took office Jan. 20 breaking the pattern in which the Dow rallied over 5 percent on average in the 12 months after a Democrat captured the White House, according to Bloomberg. People thought there would be a brief Obama rally but we got carnage and a lack of confidence in the measures that Obama announced.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Obama is apparently creating a perfect storm to achieve the great depression he needs to create the Democrat States of Socialist Amerika.

Financial Markets Fell to New Lows:

The bad news ripped through Wall Street sending the Dow diving 281 points yesterday and finally bringing technology stocks to their knees before Presidenta Obama. NASDAQ was the last major index to hit a new low.

The cash flow out of the US equities markets Thursday was high again. At this time we have no indication of when the market could form a new bottom but economists are now saying the administration action is causing damage that could take five years to unwind. Obama continues trashing the American free market and capitalist system. It is quite possible that the economy will slide lower until Americans throw the socialists out of Congress in 2011.

The financial markets are now realizing the Obama administration is incompetent and the market has begun discounting a 9% drop in all corporate earnings for each year Obama has the power to destroy American banking and spread socialist chaos. That leads to the expectation that the market bottom will be about 40% lower than we were yesterday. That would be an S&P of about 400, a DJI of about 4100, and a NASDAQ of about 800. You can buy a bank share today for the fee it costs you to withdraw money from that bank at an ATM machine.

Asian stocks were down last night with Shanghai down 1.26%, Japan down 3.5%, India up about 1.5%, and Hong Kong was down about 2.4%.

Yesterday European markets were down 3% to 5% but are doing much better today and are only down in the range between 0.5% to 1.0% at this time.

American market futures are currently down slightly (0.5%) two hours before the market opens.


Capitol Hill reeks with decay:

There is not enough air in the room with Obama punishing achievers who pay taxes and robbing them to create a bankrupt European type cradle to grave welfare system. The Obama administration is now seriously talking of having the senior bondholders sharing in the losses of common and recently preferred stock holders to punish them for trying to preserve their wealth. It is just at the talking stage but bonds are no longer immune to Obama's destruction and chaos. That could bankrupt even the most conservative pension plans. With the Obama administration, going green is coming to refer to the color of the national decay he is creating.

'Substantial doubts' came to light about struggling GM's ability to continue operations. Democrat Congressman Barney Frank says Congress is starting to suffer fatigue from the auto bailout effort and they are thinking about pulling out and letting GM and Chrysler fail after throwing tens of billions at the auto unions. The unions caused the failures and Democrat-Socialist Congress is ready to kill the auto companies but have Democrat Socialist Amerika pick up and pay the obscene auto union pensions so they can keep the union vote and get re-elected.

Obama's mess at AIG continues to fester after multiple failed bailed-outs and it remains in the news all the time. During the 1989-91 bank crisis when 2000 American banks were dissolved quickly and uneventfully there were hundreds of people in the treasury department staff working on the problem. Geithner can't find any competent economists to work with him on Obama's nationalization program.

Angry gay socialist activists are now in court in California to try to overturn the California referendum that overturned lower court rulings that were pressuring churches to bless same sex marriages or have their pastors slandered as bigots or even sued for so-called hate crimes. The activists have already published their blacklist for Ron Emanuel's White House hiring. Ron Emanuel's narcissistic attention to his eye makeup and fluffy wet hair style continues to distract Americans who would like him to focus more on the economy than his pretty face and to hire based on competency without regard to sexual orientation. Is it any wonder that the Obama administration can't find qualified people for the Treasury Department?

Thursday, March 5, 2009

White House begins to create a Black List of critics they want removed.

Market Outlook

Bob Brinker retracted his bottom pronouncement of Jan 15 and now hints the bottom could come in six month and says 2010 is when the FED says recovery will begin. He says he believes this is the worst market since 1974. That is what we have been saying since October 2007. We are repeating the 1970's when we had the Oil Embargo and Jimmy Carter's pessimism, malaise, environmental Kookery, stagflation, 3000% rise in the price of Gold, and 21% CD interest rates. That is why we do not support Obama's careless spending which will potentially cause near-hyperinflation for the first time since the Revolutionary War in 1780.

Despite warnings from the Federal Reserve that a near-term improvement in economic conditions is unlikely, yesterday's bargain-hunting rally held through a sell off in the last hour with the Dow almost rising to the 7,000 threshold and the S&P again above 700. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 9.8% to 46.6% (still panic levels), indicating that investors seemed a tiny bit less worried about the health of the markets yesterday.

The cash flow into the US markets Wednesday was low. At this time we have no indication of when the market could form a new bottom. It will depend on when Obama stops trashing the American free market and Capitalism or when investors begin to ignore Obama and his administration. It is quite possible that Americans will have to go send a Republican Congress to Washington in 2011 with a mandate to impeach Obama if he continues trashing America.

Asian stocks were mixed again last night with Shanghai up 1.04%, Japan up 1.05%, India down about 2.9%, and Hong Kong was up about 1%.Today European markets are sharply down in the range between 2% to 2.5%. American market futures are currently down significantly (90 pts. on the DOW) two hours before the market opens.

Black Listing

Obama has a plan called socialism. Emanuel apparently is in charge of the White House KGB type black listing of economists, conservatives, Republicans, and believers in conventional marriage and life including Rush Limbaugh, Jim Cramer and others who point out that Obama knows nothing, nothing, nothing!

Yesterday Obama critics had a field day pointing out there is no profit-earnings ratio as Obama called it. It is called price-earnings ratio. Obama attributes the recent criticism of him to too much caffeine.

Angry gay socialist activists in Austin, Texas have already published their own blacklist that is basically much the same as Ron Emanuel's new White House list. Rush continues to poke fun of Emanuel's makeup and Barney Frank's cultivated lisp as distractions to the anger they direct against the American economy, business leaders, nuclear scientists, achievers, and hard workers, and the American way. The White House now says America can no longer be different from the rest of the world.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Wall Street is death by a thousand cuts with Obama depression trash talk.

Market Outlook

U.S. S&P 500 closed below 700 for first time since October 1996. The Dollar surge heightens the global financial stress.

Mesmerized by steep declines followed by mini rallies investors hang on and on and on as each month leads to greater losses and they wait and wait and wait for a recovery. But many banks stocks will go to zero and the bank sector will decline. It is death by a thousand cuts. Yesterday Obama said the U.S. economy will not turn around quickly but he said some investors may profit if they buy now at these low prices.

But what about all the people who believed in Obama and bought into the market last year thinking he actually had a plan? They are down 40% since Obama said during his campaign that McCain's confidence in the American economy was misplaced and that America was in a great depression. Before Obama's "trash the economy" depression talk… the market was down only 10% and it was a mild recession. But Obama says the U.S. economy will not turn around quickly. He does not believe in wasting a good financial crisis when there is so much socialistic expropriation (stealing) to be done.

The cash flow out of the US markets on Tuesday dropped to the pace of last week just before the plunge in the markets.

Australia's GDP shrank for first time in 8 years and Australia shares fell to lowest since August 2003.

China's manufacturing survey improved. Asian stocks rallied on hopes of more China stimulus Spending. Shanghai was up 6.1%, Japan was up 0.9%, India was up about 0.2% and Hong Kong was up about 2.5%.

Europe may break its losing streak today as commodities gained. Today European markets are presently up in a range between 1.5% to 2.5%.

American market futures are currently up two hours before the market opens.


Obama did have a plan, called socialism:

After forcing banks to take TARP money why not just change the rules now and claim the Government owns them? Bank of America and others claim they were told not to leave the room until they signed on to the TARP program. Bank of America first declined the government request that they buy up Merrill Lynch but the bank was pressured to do their patriotic duty and take it over. They then discovered the income statement was falsified so they fired the Merrill Lynch president who had given the FED the false income statements. But the government did not reimbursed the bank for losses caused by the false statements Paulson gave Bank of America.

The threat of nationalization causes investors to flee the free capitalist markets to avoid getting only a penny on the dollar from the socialists. The equities markets consequently collapse and the socialists print just enough money to give the remaining investors their remaining penny on the dollar. Then the socialists confiscate the last penny with taxes and loot the investor's bank deposit boxes to recover the hidden money and offshore money they are accused of stealing from the majority of the voters (who happen to get exempted from taxes). There is no way to estimate a bottom for a socialist Obama market. Socialism is what Jefferson feared. It is when the people who contributed nothing to society become the majority and create a big government system to expropriate from the people who in a free society produce ideas, new technology, new industries, and national wealth.

The problem is not caused by increasing taxes on the producers of American wealth but by exempting the non-produces from paying any taxes at all. Everyone should pay a least some minimum federal tax or they should not be allowed to vote. Otherwise it is possible for socialists to create an American electorate with non-taxpayers and non-producers with a vote majority leading to the election of socialist like Lenin and Hitler who promise to be modern Robin Hoods and steal from the rich to give to the majority of the voters. Ayn Rand wrote several good books on how the socialists in Russia enslaved the producers of wealth. Since the fall of communism in Europe we know now that the socialist non-producers had to pretend to work while the socialist bureaucrats pretended to pay them and the government pretended that productivity increased. Ultimately the Obama socialist promises become recognized as socialist lies and all the people are robbed of their potential because the economy stagnates.

Those of you who have traveled to Eastern Europe know they had free medical care and it was worthless. Even the socialist medical systems of Scandinavian countries do not compare with what is available in America to a broader percentage of our population. But today the socialists brazenly lie and say that American health care is inferior to that in socialist countries.

Socialism is rotten to the core because the government literally expropriates wealth from the producers to buy the support of the majority of voters. Hitler expropriated from the Jews who had the highest percentage in the top 2% of Germany's wealthy producers. Obama also is going after the top 2% and already 40% of voters in America pay no taxes at all and Obama will actually give 10% reimbursements for taxes they do not pay. That is how cities like Chicago and states like Illinois are run by corrupt political machines with fraudulent voter registration community activist groups such as ACORN where Obama learned how to win elections. That is how politicians (even Hitlerand Lenin did) learn to tell their big socialist lies and still be believed.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Obama could claw back Federal, state, and private pensions i.e. eliminate them.

When the Leninists took over Russia they looted the banking system and with it the wealth and power of the intelligencia who could see he was a petty but deadly dictator. You know they are maniacal tyrants from how they encourage their own cults of personality.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/dec/28/bolshevik-finance-soviet-secrets/

http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=obama%20cults&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv

In the socialist mind, pensions are a perk of the rich. Most Americans only get government social security. Obama is destroying America's banks and equities market and with it jeopardizing the investments, which back up federal, state and private pension programs. It is another way to redistribute wealth so that we are no longer unequally rich but all become equally poor.

Market Outlook
The Obama market rally fizzled. Here was our most recent timing
Cherry pick buying into equities Nov 6-Dec 5, 2008
Cherry-pick selling out Jan 20-Feb27 2009

The tremendous cash flow out on Monday was about twice that of the Friday cash flow exit that was about eight times the Thursday cash flow exit.

We do not recommend shorting the market at these low prices because any good news could quickly wipe out the short sellers. But to date the Obama administration has been bad news for the economy from when he first started calling it a great depression to get elected.

Asian markets were mixed last night but down about 1% on average.

Currently European markets are mixed and down about 0.5% on average

American market futures are currently up fractionally two hours before the markets open.

There is no way to estimate a bottom for this Obama market. We will monitor the technical indicators to estimate when the bottom is being laid down again. We expect the bad news to begin to moderate when the Obama administration has gotten what it wants.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Obama spoke on Friday and the window for exiting equities closed rapidly.

Market Outlook

The Obama rally fizzled. Here was our most recent timing
Cherry pick buying into equities Nov 6-Dec 5, 2008
Cherry pick selling out Jan 20-Feb27 2009

We do not recommend shorting the market at these low prices because any good news could quickly wipe out the short sellers. But to date the Obama administration has been bad news for the economy from when he first started disparaging the economy to get elected. Remember how he disparaged Republicans who spoke positively about the future prospects of the economy? Well Obama got what he wished. Every economic sector he has touched with his plans has turned to farmer’s gold including all infrastructure and green stocks.

The broader S&P joined the DJI in breaking through its support level. The technology stocks are not far behind. President Obama spoke negatively again on Friday and failed in his last chance to stop another leg of his administration’s stock market collapse. He seems oblivious to the fact that the stock market leads the economy and by decimating the equities market he destroys the way most firms finance expansion. Borrowing covers day to day operations but expansion usually comes from selling shares of stock.

Not only is tight credit bad for the economy but corporations can not raise cash by selling stock when the Obama Administration has rendered their stock worthless. Apparently socialists do not know that in free nations the stock markets lead the economy and that is why the stock market is a leading indicator. In free nations if you destroy the market you destroy the economy.

Last night Eastern markets were down with India down 3.2% but Japan down 3.8%. Hong Kong was down 3.9% and Shanghai up 0.6%.

At this moment most European markets are down 3% to 4%. Perhaps socialist Europe recognizes the current administration as that of America's first Democrat-Socialist party. Socialists do not understand that spending money does not stimulate an economy when there is no hope of success because when a government seeks to punish human initiative people give up trying and the velocity of money goes to zero.