Monday, January 27, 2014

Jan 31 Obama now claims the last two Quarters, with the all the shutdown hullabaloo, has been the best since he was elected. However he claims the pace of growth in the U.S. private sector slowed in both December and January, with declines in new orders and employment components according to his administration’s latest industry report on Monday. The last quarter’s growth was initially faked as 4.1% gains, far too high for Obama’s claim to be believable, but most of the October and November data got by without the public noticing it was also falsified data. Even though the socialists claimed that the Government shutdown over the budget was badly crippling the economy in both October and November, the socialists slipped up and first claimed the economy grew a whopping 4.1% in that quarter. But now Obama claims the pace of growth slowed in December and January after the government shutdown and revised the last quarter from 4.1% down to 3.2% growth. In fact Obama still claims the last two Quarters (6 months) including all the shutdown hullabaloo has been the best last two quarters since he was elected. That lie will last for a month or two until they revise it down so that they can claim the economy improved in the current quarter. That is not being cynical it is just showing how socialists perpetually lie because every socialist is a disaster waiting to happen and they disparage and blame others for the failures of cradle to grave socialist welfare.

Obama supporters were asked directly if Obama would endorse a Karl Marx for US President, and  many actually signed the petition to that effect.  The question it raises is, does that indicate the low level of the intelligence of Obama’s supporters, or do his supporters actually think Obama is a Marxist?  Either way our country is in grave danger.

In 2013, Obama for the first time in American history allowed the American national debt to exceed the American gross domestic product.

"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by sword. The other is by debt." John Adams
John Adams was an early advocate of violent revolution, a gun holder, and 2nd President of the USA.  John Adams lived at a time of high faith and morality and did not know that with socialism you could also lie and cheat your way to the top.   Many in America are beginning to see that the “self esteem” movement in the American school system is a national socialist cheating exercise where you first lie to yourself through school so you can learn how to lie your way to the top... even president.  You are called a nasty Republican or a nasty Conservative if you believe that studying and working hard is a better path than lying, and cheating to attain a high self esteem and fake your way to prosperity as socialist try to do.
 
Aristotle wrote that compassion and all other human virtues are personal and they cease to be virtues when we abdicate them to our institutions. In other words, compassionate government is a contradiction of terms, as Lenin, Mao, and Pol Pot so eloquently have pointed out.  But there are many stupid and lazy people in the world who know nothing about civilization, economics, or ethics.  And they lie their way into the highest places of government and pretend they are compassionate.
 
Bloomberg reported state tax increases are providing states with more tax dollars to spend this year while the private economy gets tighter.  All the new state taxes are a new drag this year on the socialist economy.  At some point Americans and the world will realize there is no wizard behind the curtain of the American economy, there is just someone who lied and cheated his way to the top and continues to lie and cheat thinking economies run on false optimism and falsified data.   It is someone who thinks teachers should correct national student test scores to improve student self esteem.  The USA was #1 in education throughout the last century until 1993 and since then has dropped to #17, well below many socialist countries.  Of course since socialists lie and cheat their way to the top, no examinations in socialist countries have any credibility whatsoever. The National Socialists thought they were a superior race and the idiot International Stalinist Socialists’ “agricultural geniuses” were starving before they gave up.
 
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 8.8% in December to a more than two-year low due in part to unusually cold weather across the country, pointing to signs of a slowdown in the housing market.
 
A good compromise for a minimum wage would be one for first year workers and workers under 20yrs, and one for seasoned workers over 20yrs of age.
 
If the ad business is doing so much at Google, how come no one is selling much product or hiring?  Advertizing sales on the internet and all the services provided by wireless are incredibly easy targets for fraud.  A few people have been caught setting up sites that click on ads to raise the income of the web site for web sites that cheat like Obama to be successful.  Some crooks even publicly advertize that they can increase the response rate for ad agencies that use their sites. 
 
Some internet users dislike the advertizing and click on ads and then cancel not even knowing that it still helps the ad companies that they hate.  Any clicking at all encourages people to put up more annoying ads.  If you are getting annoyed as much as most people, then do not click on the ads. There will eventually be a falling out and the stock prices of cheating advertisers will plummet and industries will realizes that the return on those ads has been very low.  Of course if the companies got smart they would email the people who click and find out if they actually even clicked on their ads.
 
Jan 29
 "The American Republic will endure until the day those who govern discover that it can bribe the public with their own money."
Alexis de Tocqueville (1805 - 1859)
 
Yahoo disappointed investors with a 1.7% decline in fourth-quarter revenue even excluding traffic acquisition costs.  The company's closely watched display-ad revenue continued falling, off 5.9% also excluding traffic acquisition costs.  Ms. Mayer has struggled to entice advertisers to spend more money on Yahoo sites. The company's profit was 33 cents a share, but analysts had expected 38 cents.
 
Target thought they had a secure system but they estimate over 100,000 people may have had financial information compromised.  Imagine the chaos a terrorist could do corrupting Obama’s database and using Obama’s system to attack the insurers.  Apparently Target was attacked through a vendor’s database.  Perhaps Obama’s data base will be door into the database of the US Treasury?  Clearly no one knows very much about those risks because the Obama family friends who got the contracts to build it were replaced without any investigation.
 
Jan 28  Apple disappointed investors with lower than anticipated sales in China and the US.  Mark Mobius of Templeton says we could have a 10% or 20% correction but he thinks the market will be higher at the end of the year.  He says the Fed will never liquidate their $4 Trillion balance sheet and will only just end QE and not take back the cash they put into the stock market.  However, without a Fed cash flow into the stock market at these high prices investors are going to go elsewhere.
Jan 27   Obama claims he plans to assert a unilateral agenda on a host of issues to force changes to hiring practices, education, infrastructure and other indicatives.  He has done that before over the botched “Fast and Furious,” and to prevent Congress from seeing any documents ahead of its vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress.  If he does try to assume dictatorial powers his popularity will plunge much further.
 
Snopes confirms the opinion that the Obama’s are in fact Leninists who have spent over $1,000,000 to keep their past legally sealed.  You may remember how Obama got to run for the Senate.  He did it by having his opponent’s divorce records unsealed so Obama could show the world the terrible things their wives and wives’ lawyers had said about them.  It will be years before we know what the Obama’s did that they are ashamed to have made public and thus have had sealed.
 
World Economies
Jan 31
The UK and Irish austerity plans seem to be paying off.  U.K. mortgage approvals are at a high.
A QE currency meltdown is occurring in countries where socialist selfishly spend their children’s’ futures on themselves.
  
More than $10Billion has flowed out of ETFs investing in developing nation assets in the past month the most ever. Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF is poised for the biggest monthly redemption since the fund was started.
 
Mark Mobius of Templeton says the crisis abroad is caused by the Fed taper of QE because US QE money had bought many foreign bonds only because the Fed had drastically reduced US bond interest rates.  That cheap Fed cash inflow from America caused excessive borrowing by emerging nations.  Now American investors are dumping their emerging market bonds causing foreign country interest on debt to increase and bring emerging countries closer to bankruptcy and default.
 
Argentina is going Marxist and is expected to default on debts.
 
Gold appears to have bottomed out.  China is now the world’s primary buyer of gold. 
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The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 27
New Home Sales Dec 414K down 10% from 464K
Jan 28
From now on we are going to show how the administration inflates economic reports and then revised the old economic data down closer to the truth.  This is not a random error this is a systematic Obama administration distortion of the nations vital economic statistics that has inflated the stock market.
Durable Orders Nov revised down from 3.4% to 2.6%---
Durable Orders Dec -4.3% from way down from the 3.4% reported Nov.---
Durable Goods -ex transportation Nov revised down to 0.1% from 1.2%---
Durable Goods -ex transportation Dec fell -1.6% from  1.2% from Nov report----
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov 13.7% flat from 13.6% 
Consumer Confidence Jan 80.7 up slightly from 78.1 +
Jan 29
Jan MBA Mortgage Index 01/25 -0.2% down sharply from 4.7% -
Jan 30
Initial Claims 01/25 revised up to 329K from 326K --
Initial Claims 01/25 Current 348K up from 326K --
Continuing Claims 01/18 2991K down from 3007K +
GDP-Adv. Q4 last 3.0% was revised lower from4.1% --
GDP-Adv. Q4 3.2% down from 4.1% - -
Personal Income Dec 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -
Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.3% up from 1.2% -
Pending Home Sales Dec -0.3% last month estimate declined from0.2%--
Pending Home Sales Dec -8.7% this month much worse 0.2% --
We show how they hide bad news in the first report when the revised news gets reported later and few people se it.  The downward revision seldom is reported on the news.  But to be consistent the first report this month is shown vs. the first report last month
Jan 31
 Personal Spending Dec 0.4% down from 0.6% -
PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.1% flat 0.1% ++
Employment Cost Index Q4 0.5% up from 0.4% -
Chicago PMI Jan 59.6 up from 60.8 --
Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan 81.2 up from 80.4 +
 
The Markets
Jan 31
Friday the DOW is down 5.2% so far for the year.  Friday the broad NYSE is down 3.1% so far for the year.  Statistically, 73% of the time the stock market drops as much as 30% during the year but only averages down about 8% for such a year.
Jan 29
In the past the market has not paid attention to Obama’s state of the union speeches.  This time it is pretty clear Americans have finally given up on him.  He has as much sense got the sense of a freight train.  Just one glimmer of common sense from him would turn this country around.  After shutting down gulf oil drilling, vetoing the oil pipeline, and opposing gas/oil fracking Obama took credit last night for the USA becoming more energy independent.  He is like the class clown that every American experienced at one time or another.  The socialists are going to get thrown out on their ears.  They don’t listen.
 Jan 28   Markets are now under pressure and a correction of -20% is being posited as normal.   We will keep people posted if the selling says a major correction is likely. 
Jan 27  The markets are down in America because American Industry is being bled dry and harassed by the Obama administration.  They don’t seem to break in and shut down small businesses any more but they have been intimidating and bleeding banks at regular intervals with multiple “final” settlements.  The FED flooded the world with cheap credit and it is now being reduced.  Wait to see how much worse it will be when the FED starts taking back the $trillions already spent.
 
World bulk trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected, and the recent gain has evaporated.   Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the Obama administration’s world trade highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 14.  This is not a good moment in time.
 
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
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Tuesday, January 21, 2014

January 24, 2014 Obama is too busy harassing patriotic Americans who love America, and illegally wire taping potential political challengers to pay much attentions to the American economy or the collapse of American influence around the world. The issue of “America’s troubled alliances” is cited at the top of global risks for this year by the Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk research and consulting firm. “I travel all around the world and I hear unanimously that the United ... is on the wane and that bad things are going to happen,” said McCain. Bad things are always going to happen when we have a president who does not believe in American exceptionalism.

 
Jan 23   The federal privacy board said in a report issued today, that the U.S. National Security Agency under Obama has been and is still illegally collecting phone call records, and emails, and other information from millions of Americans and the program should be stopped!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/nsa-s-spying-on-phone-calls-illegal-u-s-privacy-board.html
 
Obama is destroying any confidence Americans ever had.  One knows just how bad our nation’s mismanagement is when they claim the American economy is doing very well now.  It shows the socialists haven’t got a clue.   If Morgan Stanley, Standard and Poors, Republicans and Conservatives are harassed for telling the truth that will cause American people will stop believing the redistribution minded Democrat socialists.  Also, the rest of the world economies will stagnate whenever a Democrat socialist is elected as long as the world is on a dollar standard.  Obama has done all he could do to pick the pockets from the working middle class to give it to the work shirkers who live by the credo of, “I don't need no stinking education.”  Obama collected more campaign contributions while in the White House than anyone else in world history.  
S&P claims that Tim Geithner specifically threatened them with bad consequences the moment they made the decision to downgrade the Obama administration’s credit rating.  Today, Tim Geithner was on Squawk Box while in Davos and said that government harassment of critics is nothing new.  As an example he said that President Kennedy had all of the steel company executives investigated (harassed) because they raised steel prices. 
If we do not depose the socialists in the USA, the USA will spiral down and take the free world with it.  The socialists do “need a stinking education” despite what they say.
 
Virginia's ex-Gov. Bob McDonnell’s smeared by dirty tricks as harassment of by Obama continues. 
 
It is clear that Obama had the Christy’s and his staff phones and e-mail tapped because those two unintelligible emails of the staff could never have been found before the news even broke and the information was subpoenaed.  Obama violated the American Constitution and had Christy illegally taped with the intension of sabotaging his promising career.  The information was then leaked to the press to smear Christy.  That was Christy’s just reward for sabotaging candidate Mitt Romney and helping Obama.
 
Mohamed El-Erian abruptly leaves mid-March as chief executive of Pacific Investment Management Co., after seven years running the world's largest bond fund.  He will leave in after seven years at the helm of the firm, which manages $2 trillion as a unit of German insurer  Allianz.  His departure leaves Bill Gross, the founder, as sole chief investment officer.  Pimco's effort has faltered and the Total Return Fund suffered industry-record outflows in 2013 just when stocks posted their biggest gains in over a decade.  That turn about is 180 degrees from just a few years ago, when investors poured hundreds of billions of dollars into high-rated bonds to avoid risk during financial crisis.  Now, with interest rates rising, bonds are losing as fast as they gained when interest rates were falling.
 
Hurt by slumping end of year sales, Coach (COH) disclosed a 16% drop in earnings, driving the luxury retailer’s shares steeply lower.
 
Jan 22  Just as American Republicans and Independents were harassed by Obama’s 20,000 new IRS agents in 2012 and 2013 for their pro Constitution and pro free enterprise views, now businesses are beginning to come forward to complain too.  Tea Party and people who believe the Founding Fathers were great men were primarily Republicans.  Obama did not harass Democrats.   Even European socialists do not harass individuals the way Obama has.  You have to look at Russia, N. Korea, Iran and Syria to find Heads of State who harass their citizens the way Obama is doing.  Most are communists, dictators, religious fanatics and KGB type presidents.  It is now apparent that Obama used the NSA to tap the lines of Governor Christy’s aids to get those two five word comments about the traffic situation.  This is further evidence that Obama is violating the Constitution and illegally politically harassing Americans and corporations.
Americans who believe strongly in the entire American Constitution and American liberty were harassed by Obama’s IRS in 2012 and 2013, and now businesses are beginning to come forward to complain. 
American corporations are beginning to prepare to sue Obama/Holden administration for deliberate fraud and harassment.  It is deliberate government harassment for the government to make punish those who do not support bankrupt economic leadership.  They eventually forced the Kenneth D. Lewis, chief executive officer of Bank of America, the man who built the bank, to resign in a coordinated political orchestrated Socialist-Democratic attack.  In the first attempt, all the Blue States sent their Democrat State Treasurers to vote all their state pension BOA stock to unseat the BOA chairman the year Obama took office.  But when that failed the Obama administration harassed the bank until the BAC president resigned in disgust. 
S&P now says they are currently being harassed because they downgraded the USA rating when Obama was within a month of making America insolvent the first time in American history.
 
  Jan 21   Rockwell Collins Inc. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg reported that the slump in business-jet sales since the global Obama Liar–Loan recession probably will last into 2016 after the next presidential election as corporate buyers wait for their businesses to rebound.
 
World Economies
January 24, 2014  
The worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years is beginning to be compounded by political and financial instability.   The Turkish lira plunged and South Africa’s rand fell to a level weaker for the first time than in 2008. Argentina devalued the peso allowing the currency to drop the most in 12 years to an unprecedented low.
Jan 23  
A report on manufacturing in China, suggested that a slowdown at the end of 2013 in the world’s second-largest economy had continued into the new year.
Poll says 57% of Europeans think that after seven years of Obama, the worst of their economic crisis is over.  They say it is almost as bad as it was in 1933 at the bottom in Socialist FDR’s three terms.  Even the Europeans had to deal with the 2005-2007 Dodd-Frank and Obama’s Liar-Loans that sank the banks.
Jan 21  
China is now the world’s primary buyer of gold.
Bitcoin violates US and international banking rules and is the fastest growing world Ponzi scheme ever invented.
The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 22
MBA Mortgage Index 01/18 4.7% down from 11.9% ---
Jan 23
Initial Claims 01/18 326K up from 325K and very high ---
Continuing Claims 01/11 3056K up from 3022K and very high---
FHFA Housing Price Index Nov 0.1% down sharply from 0.5% --
Existing Home Sales Dec 4.87M flat from 4.90M -
Leading Indicators Dec 0.1% sharply lower from 1.0% ---
AM Crude Inventories 01/18 0.990M gained -7.658M  +
California, the most prosperous state in the USA, posted its unemployment rate at 8.3% 
 
The Markets
January 24, 2014  
Investors are losing confidence in some of the developing nations, extending the currency-market rout from last year. China and South Africa now pose a threat to world financial stability.
Yesterday American markets suffered the biggest drop in over a year.  A 2.4%  drop from this level would likely trigger a massive selloff of at least 14%.  The market would still be more than 40% higher than the previous Obama market low. It looks similar to July 2013 only that time the market held and did not plummet  further.
 
Jan 23
Without small investors the funds have nothing they can do to make money.  Therefore the funds that liquidate stocks first to raise cash and buy gold and gold equities will be the only ones to profit in a massive selloff.  That is because they will have the cash to buy equities a lot lower.
 
Obama just said that after paying off his corrupt health care contractors in full for delivering no socialized medicine, he will not prosecute or claw back their wasted money. He will just fire them to get them out of the limelight.   It had been disclosed that corruption (helping incompetent friends) is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy in 2014 and due to inept government interference will make the whole 26% piece of the American Economy another big economic anchor worse than Medicaid.. 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cgi-federal-scrutiny-obama-fundraising/2013/10/27/id/533310
 
World trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected, the recent gain has evaporated.   Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the Obama administration’s world trade highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 14.  This is not a good moment in time.
 
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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Monday, January 13, 2014

January 17, 2014 The NYSE and broad markets had another weekly decline with the broad market lower for the year to date. We have now liquidated most stocks except some gold mining stocks. We are preparing now for the next buying opportunity.

Jan 15   The FedEx Express Segment reported for the second quarter Dec 18, 2013, revenue of $6.84 billion, down from last year’s $6.86 billion.  We know December was a wash-out at the stores and the Xmass season was 5 days shorter this year.  Fedex said the internet sales were poor because Fedex did not make as much on seasonal express delivery.  We know the government shutdown caused transportation gridlock and cancelations of  travel plans in September and October.  Yet just like in previous years Obama says we  just jumped the shark again in the last Quarter to 3% growth from 0% inflation adjust growth.  The truth is inflation is now approaching 2.5% per year which is the rate the Federal Reserve said it should be when they have to reduce quantitative easing.   And the Fed has done what they said they would do.  Last week the Administration even lied and said unemployment was down to 6.5% as Fed originally said they would require to reduce QE3.
When do we know a government incompetent and when do we know a government is outright lying to its people?  If the information is full of errors it has a lot of scatter and corrections but it is just random up and down errors, then the government is just incompetent.  If a government is outright lying, its lies are biased and typically so absurd that they have to continually revise old numbers the next time so that the new number looks more believable.  Obama’s administration has been lying and continually reports great growth and declining unemployment numbers then later they are revised closer to the truth.  Almost every year he said the recovery has begun and the last quarter was up about 3% and will be 3% next year.  But every year we have seen 2% growth of which 2% is actually just inflation. 
They leave it to you to make an error and assume they corrected their numbers for inflation.  But they did not correct them!  If they had adjusted for inflation it would say the growth was inflation adjusted. MSNBC/Pravda makes most of its money lying to the public and they hype the economy so Wall Street rewards them with advertizing.  Selling hype for Wall Street is the only reason MSNBC/Pravda can stay in business.  They sell exciting lies because they are in the venerable snake oil business.  Their political stance is totally socialist and they are supporting the government handouts so the government can buy the votes to get the government hands in the pockets of working Americans.  Obama hired 20,000 additional IRS agents when he was first elected.  And when they grab your “you-know-what” you know it will be too late.
Obama thanked Governor Christy for his endorsement last year but to prove it wasn’t political, there will be two Federal investigations of how Christy spent the Federal money Obama gave him after Sandy hit.  30,000 dead Mexicans from Obama gun-running but no investigation of that.   Illegal Obama tapping of American phones and computer devices but Moslems bomb Boston after Obama was tipped off by the Russians the year before and he did nothing.
 
January 13, 2014  Goldman Sachs said, Stock valuations are ‘lofty by almost any measure’  Beware!  See our “Thee Market’s” section to understand that the bubble in the hedge funds and market makers.  Will your insurance cover the money they will lose when the bubble pops?  The more dangerous it becomes the more they inflate the bubble.
 
In the news.  There is a popular uprising brewing for this November 2014 election day.  The lame duck Senate and house members who had been voted out of office in November 2012 were called into session by Obama and each duck voted unanimously to pass Obama’s socialized medicine.   Then later Navy Seals lost their lives in a helicopter ambush because Obama identified their unit as the ones who killed Osama.  Neither display of compete contempt for the American Electorate and our patriot soldiers indicated that Obama knows how to lead a constitutional free society.  This November Americans have a chance to return America to free enterprise and exceptionalism in education, medicine and science the way it was before the socialists learned how to buy election with taxpayer money and sold out American workers. More than 1,000 American soldiers have lost their lives in Afghanistan in the last 27 months. This is more than the combined total of the nine years before. Thirty alone have died in August. During the last month, over 50 additional NATO and US servicemen have been murdered, inside jobs by those who Obama pays to be a force for good in Afghanistan.   The VETs claim the commander in chief has gone AWOL. Not a peep for the 50 murdered soldiers, although he ordered the White House flag flown at half-staff for the Sikhs. There is a deep disgust, and a fury, growing in the ranks of the military against the indifferent incompetence of this administration.
 
The Great Depression had a recovery period after 1929 and then collapsed about 80% to a low.  Obama’s second shoe has not fallen yet.  The derivative market based on Obama-Frank-Dodd liar loans collapsed and broke the banking system.  Now Obama has spent the next generation’s retirement  on reparations payments, gun running, food stamps, and a wonderful work free life where everyone can be an artist at workers’ expense.
 
Motley Fool called Barrons a fool for recommending Barrick Gold as a top 10 pick in 2014.  Time will tell who the fool is. 
 
World Economies
January 17, 2014 Europe’s largest investment bank by revenue, Deutsche Bank AG (DB), fell the most in more than five months after a report that executives are considering issuing a profit warning.
Jan 16 The pound dropped after U.K. house prices declined in December, indicating the economic recovery is returning to recession.
Hollande the French socialist has four children from his first mistress and sent his second mistress to the insane asylum recently when he started up with his third mistress.  He is as smart, ethical, and compassionate as socialists come.  He thinks the government is necessary because people just are not compassionate.  But it is people like Hollande, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot that lead “compassionate” socialist countries.  Decent people like Angela Merkle think compassion and human virtues are close and personal and cannot be delegated to others.
Firms Tripling Junk Returns Lure Most Since ’07: Credit Markets
 
Jan 13  World trade just plummeted again last week towards it former lows.   
China appears to be reeling now from bad loans.  There is no soft landing possible.  While a Great Depression is possible it is more likely China is in for just a very poor year ahead.
Angela Merkle was raised under communism and knows how stupid and evil socialist leaders can be.  She is just ignoring Obama who keeps criticizing Germany for having a trade surplus.
The secret to Germany’s success is that they live within their means.  If every American saved 25% of their income they would be living within 75% of their means.  The Chinese immigrants to America saved more than 50% of their income.  Obama’s relatives are on welfare because they spend more than they earn.  If Obama was smart enough to learn from Angela Merkle he could help his voting block achieve greater incomes by doing like the Chinese and Germans and just live within their means by saving 25% or more for a rainy day.  Easier said than done!  Obama should save his economic advice and listen to Angela Merkle who knows a lot more.
 
South America is taking Obama’s advice and expanding their socialist takeover and American investors are leaving.
 
The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 13
Treasury Budget Dec $53.2 B up from -$1.2B --- Tax income now more than pays of the government waste but it means Obama has begun to draw down private money to pay for government waste.  This could slow the economy through April.
Jan 14
Retail Sales Dec 0.2% -0.3% down sharply 0.7% --
Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.7% nonsense 0.4%  Auto sales must be positive or zero, they just cannot be  negative.  If you subtract positive or zero sales how can the % be greater than it was before!  Obama nonsense ---
Export Prices ex-ag. Dec 0.3% is higher so it hurts balance of trade 0.1% --
Import Prices ex-oil Dec -0.1% is lower so it hurts balance of trade 0.0% --
Business Inventories Nov 0.4% down is good 0.7% ++
Jan 15
MBA Mortgage Index 01/11 11.9% up from 2.6% +++
PPI Dec 0.4% up from 0.3% which is a 4.8% annual inflation rate. -----
Core PPI Dec 0.3% up from 0.1%  still 3.6% inflation without food and energy ----
Empire Manufacturing Jan 12.5 up from 1.0 obvious bogus numbers since manufacturing rises before not during Xmas.
 Crude Inventories 01/11 -7.658M down sharply from -2.675M----
Jan 16
Initial Claims 01/11 326K down slightly 328K -
Continuing Claims 01/04 2856K flat 2865K
CPI Dec 0.3% up 0.0% --
Core CPI Dec 0.1% down 0.2%
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov -$29.3B deficit widening $35.4B--
Philadelphia Fed Jan 9.4 up 7.0
NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 56 down 58 -
Natural Gas Inventories 01/11 -287 bcf down -157 bcf  -
Jan 17
Housing Starts Dec 999K down 10% from 1107K --
Building Permits Dec 986K down 2$ from 1017K -
Industrial Production Dec 0.3% slacked sharply from 1.1% +
Capacity Utilization Dec 79.2% little changed 79.0%
Mich Sentiment Jan 80.4 down 82.5 -
JOLTS - Job Openings Nov 4.01M flat 3.9M +
 
The Markets
January 17, 2014   The market seems to be stalling out now.  When a sharp correction occurs of more than 15% it is usually time to put buy orders in at least 10% below the market prices because many brokers put limits on how low you can bid.  The reason for the low big is that the market often spikes down even lower in the days ahead and you might even want to cancel your bid and wait if that happens.  The market was at its highest just before Obama was nominated and it fell 60% in total after his nomination and election.  So you can see that if you got in when it was only 25% lower after his nomination you still would have still lost about 40% more after he was elected.  This year the situation will probably end up with the socialist being kicked out of Congress.  But Obama can still do a lot more damage to the economy.
Inflation is cocked and ready to fire but the cost of debt is being maintained artificially low like Cyprus and Greece did before their debt crisis.  Goldman Sacks employees make an average of $400,000 per years and that included the pay of their chauffeurs and bell hops.  Most of them are sports jocks who are hired for their competitiveness not their intellect.  They now make more than twice what doctors make and more than three times what engineers and school superintendants make.  That is an indication of the pent up inflation that will eventually be released in prices.  If the socialists are re-elected America will remain in the quagmire of all nations that fall deeper into socialism.  The socialist nations that experiment with free enterprise only advance under those conditions.  Margret Thatcher saved Britain for her terms in office and a string of Republicans starting with Regan saved America after a string of Democrats and Nixon.
January 16, 2014   The market was up on declining individual investor volume again.    There are few individual investors to put a floor under the market.  Institutional investors have bid stocks up into the stratosphere.  When the market lets go it will be ugly and even trading firms may go under.  Most investors are not protected very well if their brokers fail and stocks and options could be frozen with a trading halt when this market finally corrects.
 
The market is high because there are no “good” investments and Obama pumped in $1 Trillion per year with nothing to spend it on.  So do you invest in hallucinogenic drugs or the stock market?  Small investors do not like the choice so more than half the stock market investors got out and stock market volume fell 50% just under Obama.  But with mostly institutional investors their net profit falls to zero no matter how high the market goes.  The market can go up to these ridiculous highs because their institutional stock market farce will only be obvious the moment that bubble unravels and all the paper gains vanish in a few days.  The funds are starting to lose the real trading money and all the 20% plus profits are on paper because they stay close to 100% invested.  Beware.
 
 
The market is high because there are no “good” investments and Obama pumped in $1 Trillion per year with nothing to spend it on.  So do you invest in drugs or the stock market?  Small investors do not like the choice so more than half the stock market investors got out and stock market volume fell 50% just under Obama.  But with mostly institutional investors their net profit falls to zero no matter how high the market goes.  The market can go up to these ridiculous highs because their institutional stock market farce will only be obvious the moment that bubble unravels and all the paper gains vanish in a few days.  The funds are starting to lose the real trading money and all the 20% plus profits are on paper because they stay close to 100% invested.  Beware.
 
Obama just said that after paying off the corrupt contractors in full for delivering no socialized medicine, he will not prosecute and claw back the wasted money he will just fire them and take them out of the limelight.   It had come out that corruption (helping incompetent friends) is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy I 2014. 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cgi-federal-scrutiny-obama-fundraising/2013/10/27/id/533310
 
World trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected but it looks like a bottom has formed. Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the current year highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 15.

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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Tuesday, January 7, 2014

January 10, 2014 The Dow was down 106 points the first week and down 139 points by the end of the second week. That indicates the bulls are either impotent and cannot control this leading indicator or they want a selloff and plan to come on strong in two weeks to rescue this leading indicator for the year. The stock market volume is half of what is was when Obama was elected and millions of more Americans are unemployed now and yet prices of stocks are about the same as they were before the Obama-Frank liar loan collapse of the American banking system. The liar-loans were to improve equality in housing and it did just that it made everyone in the world poorer. Even little fishing villages in Norway had their pensions invested in Obama-Frank liar loan derivatives that the banks were selling. What the liar loans did was not compassionate or very smart. Obama should redistribute some of his own money and help his Aunt and Uncle get off of welfare.


 
Uncle Sam’s Plantation shows how Obama’s present socialist government manipulates, controls, and ultimately devastates the lives of the poor—and what Americans must do to stop it. Once a hustler and welfare addict who was chewed up and spit out by the ruthless welfare system, Star Parker sheds much needed light on the bungled bureaucratic attempts to end poverty and reveals the insidious deceptions perpetrated by self-serving politicians like Obama.
http://www.amazon.com/Uncle-Sams-Plantation-Government-Enslaves/dp/B00AK3YKKS
 
Jan 9    This investigation of Christy must be part of a broader investigation of Obama, Rahm Emanuel, and the IRS.  Christy may have sabotaged the presidential campaign of Romney by inviting Obama for a pre-election publicity tour, but Christy’s petty sabotage is no match for Obama’s unconstitutional tapping in to all Americans (including Christy’s) phones and email. 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nsa-surveillance-row-us-phonetapping-revealed-by-edward-snowden-surely-runs-counter-to-constitution-says-judge-9009038.html
 
Romney had pulled out 1% ahead of Obama the weekend before Christy sabotaged Romney.  By the election a week later, Romney was 2% behind.  This is the first time in American history we are seeing evil emerge.  Nixon was not as bad.  Nixon did not authorize spying on Americans; he was impeached for a cover-up of Watergate.  Stolen top secret Vietnam War information was the reason the FBI broke in to the psychiatrist’s office.  The Obama administration spying on Christy was a Federal offense and it has happened recently to many patriotic Americans.  Obama and Christy are special cases of evil because they have been harassing little patriotic Americans.  This investigation of Christy must now be part of a broader investigation of Obama, Rahm Emanuel, and the IRS.  A very nasty form of corruption is now becoming virulent in America.
It has come out that poor judgment, no-bid corruption (nepotism) and incompetence is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy in 2014.  Incompetent friends of the Whitehouse influenced the decision to go with an unqualified corporation to build the failed Obamacare website.
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2013/10/29/hannity-krauthammer-michelle-obamas-connection-obamacare-no-bid-contract
 
Extending unemployment just makes the unemployment number look lower so Obama continues to expand socialism and destroy job creation.
 
Jan 8  You never hear socialists say they want equality of prosperity because the entire world would die laughing.  No socialization has ever delivered anything but equality of poverty and genocide.
Why is this bull run over?  This bull run is quite unique.  It is the first bull market where individual investors have kept leaving the market the entire time.  Volume on the NYSE and other exchanges fell starting as soon as Obama won the Democrat primary and has never stopped falling since.  The volume has even fallen through the entire market rally which was made by institutions leveraging up with QE and bidding up stock prices so they look good on paper.  Low QE rates made high debt cheap and helped distorted the balance sheets by making debt look cheap.
 
The market valuation took six years to get back where it was when Obama won the Democrat primary in the Fall of 2007 but the market volume has declined the entire time.  We have never seen that happen this way since Jimmy Carter.  American investors have been bailing out in every correction and the Funds can’t make money without the public investing.  The funds could now survive by cannibalizing other funds that are now valued more than the assets they hold.  But how can they do that without massive shorting of stocks and fleecing the public again when there are only half as many private investors to fleece?  This is about as bad as things got under Jimmy Carter when the market was locked into a trading range because Jimmy believed the environmentalists who said the world would run out of oil by 2010 so Jimmy and the other liberal geniuses stopped America looking for any more oil and America became dependent on Moslem oil and made the Jihadists rich.   It was during Jimmy Carter that seniors were so poor they were filmed by the news media buying dog food to eat and it was during Jimmy’s term that the liberals started letting all the lunatics out of state mental institutions.  It took a conservative like Ronald Regan to return sanity to American Government and we had an excellent economy until Bush tried to help the Moslem nations become real free nations.  That was as smart as it was for Democrats to let the lunatics out of the mental institutions.  So now we have Obama and now poor people are eating dog food again, homelessness is at a new high, poverty is at a new high and investors have lost confidence and have once again abandoned Wall Street which has been borrowing money to leverage up and pump up stock prices to these ridiculous levels.   Interest rates are starting to rise again and soon Wall Street will be forced to deleverage.  Then if America elects another Ronald Regan we can start with layoffs of all the IRS doing Obama’s harassment tasks and those in Obama health website consulting jobs.
 
Jan 7  Why is Obama buying $1 billion  of Russian helicopters for Afghan military when the Chinook built by Boeing is a better fit?  Is that the promise he made Putin which he said would happen if he was re-elected?
 
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2013/1207/Why-is-US-buying-Russian-helicopters-for-Afghan-military
 
World Economies
January 10, 2014  China appears to be reeling now from bad loans.  There is no soft landing possible.  While a Great Depression is possible it is more likely China is in for a very poor year ahead.
Angela Merkle was raised under communism and knows how stupid and evil socialist leaders can be.  She is just ignoring Obama who keeps criticizing Germany for having a trade surplus s.
The secret to Germany’s success is that they live within their means.  If every American saved 25% of their income they would be living within 75% of their means.  The Chinese immigrants to America saved more than 50% of income.  Obama’s relatives are on welfare because they spend more than they earn.  If Obama was smart enough to learn from Angela Merkle he could help this supporters achieve greater incomes by doing like the Chinese and Germans and just live within their means by saving 25% for a rainy day.  Easier said than done!  Obama should save his economic advice for his family and listen to Angela’s advice.
 
Jan 9  Europe’s rally in bonds is making the region’s sovereign debt crisis a fading memory and is relieving debt financing costs in the short run.  However to solve their debt problem they must use this opportunity to pay down debt not increase spending and get into an even more critical condition.
 
Jan 8, Venezuelan’s are now starving under socialism and are willing to drive four hours through army checkpoints every week from the city of Maracaibo to buy rice in Colombia for 10 times the government-set price back home.
Euro-Area Unemployment is still above 12% as their economy struggles.
 
Jan 7 
Emerging stocks fell for a fifth day as China let insurers invest in stocks of high risk Chinese startups and then tightened lending controls on banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forcing them to sell other developing-nation assets. Polish shares also slid and Turkey’s lira weakened.
..
The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 6
Factory Orders Nov 1.8% back to normal from-0.5% after a poor
Services industry Dec 53.0 down sharply from54.6
Jan 7
Trade Balance Nov -$34.3B somewhat better due to shale gas and oil energy -$39.3B 
Jan 8
MBA Mortgage Index 01/04 2.6% NA NA NA –
ADP Employment Change Dec 238K up slightly from 215K---
But they are spinning this as good news on MSNBC/Pravda because they say they expected it to be worse.  That is just how bad things are that they intentionally lie and say they had expected things to get worse when all they ever do is hype the economy as recovering.  Under socialism everyone pretends they have work and the government pretends the people can earn a living.  It is true equality of poverty, the very thing Obama strives for because misery loves company.  Under socialism you never hear them say equality of prosperity because the entire world would die laughing.
Jan 9
Challenger Job Cuts Dec -5.9% improved from-20.6% due to high post XMAS cuts ending.  Challenger Job-Cut Report could be used as a leading indicator for new jobless claims,
Initial Claims 01/04 330K down slightly from 339K +
Continuing Claims 12/28 2865K up sharply from 2833K – More reason not to extend unemployment compensation beyond a year.  Welfare is available to those in need and gives a social impetus for people to look for a job rather than look like they have no skills.  Cutting unemployment extensions forces Obama to do something to help the economy.  Extending unemployment just makes the unemployment number look lower so Obama continues to expand socialism and destroy job creation.
Jan 10
Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 74K down sharply from 203K -------
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec down sharply from 196K ------
Unemployment Rate Dec 6.7% absurd drop from7.0%, Absolute incompetence of the Obama people doing the calculation -----
Hourly Earnings Dec 0.1% down from 0.2% -
Average Workweek Dec 34.4 down from 34.5 --
Wholesale Inventories Nov 0.5% down from1.4% ++
 
The Markets
January 10, 2014  How is it possible that Continuing Claims went up sharply yet the unemployment Rate is down sharply when the unemployment rate is the continuing unemployment claims divided by the number in the labor force.  This incompetent Obama administration must have used an incorrect employed labor force number that is too high by (7-6.3)/7=10%.  This is a huge 10% error.  America would be a lot better off if the next administration lays off every incompetent person the Obama administration has hired.  They are also hopelessly evil for using the IRS to harass Americans and use the NSA to spy on Republicans to bully and smear Christy, and for killing 30,000 Mexicans with guns sold to drug cartels to smear Americans who own guns.  The Obama people shamelessly blame everyone else for their complete incompetence in every aspect of American government that the Founding Fathers conceived.  
 
Jan 9
It has come out that corruption (helping incompetent friends) is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy I 2014. 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cgi-federal-scrutiny-obama-fundraising/2013/10/27/id/533310
 
Jan 8  We can expect no economic recovery of any significant amount while we have socialism expanding in America.
 
Jan 7   The biggest drag this year is going to be the increased size of government and a sharp drop in productivity as high paying/low performing government jobs replace high paying high performing private jobs in medicine and Obama takes America one step backward toward poverty and poor medical care.  The second major drag will be 50 million more people suddenly eligible for orthopedic and other expensive surgery of which 50 million do not pay taxes and 20 million of those have welfare income based on their number of fatherless children.
http://www.tmz.com/person/octomom/
 
The second blip in world trade is fading and world trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected but it looks like a bottom has formed. Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the current year highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 15.

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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