July 26: Six out of ten American doctors say they will retire when the Unaffordable Care Act takes effect. The percentage of American students training in American university medical schools has dropped to 10%. However medical students from India, Russia, and Bangladesh do not mind it if a government bureaucrat in Washington making six figures dictates how they must treat patients and limits how much they can earn. Currently many hospitals are opting out and shutting down in large cities especially Christian hospitals. Charity is being replaced everywhere by entitlements on the low end and clinics will replace individual doctors on the high end. In Europe there is nothing left in the middle. You have entitlements in European hospitals and you pay for service in clinics. A typical American tourist in Finland will first seek a clinic or go to the hospital, say they are an American tourist and with a valid credit card and they get sent upstairs to get the help they need. If in an accident in France and they tell the police they are American the police normally automatically send Americans to the clinics. Under socialism the middle class slowly disappears. In France doctors get paid about as much as an average engineer which is half what they earn in America. There French doctors belong to a union and must disclose in the local newspapers a week before they plan to go on strike.

In the USSR in the early 1990’s we knew a head doctor in a small city who in the best of times made less than $40 per month and had cars but no gasoline to use them.  They were “privileged” and were told when a truck of raw vegetables would be dumped in a local warehouse in the middle of the night so the “privileged” could get some fresh turnips and other vegetables.  Doctors and engineers were trying to get out of the USSR and were willing to do any kind of work if they could.   Before Obama, America attracted the hardest working people from around the world and they initially waited at tables and cleaned houses and told us how bad socialism is.  Now American welfare is what attracts the most immigrants and they tell us how hard it is to find work here and refuse to work for the minimum wage when welfare or unemployment are options.  Today many have children just for the sake of the extra welfare they can get, and their children learn disrespect of teachers and authority figures.  The most notorious is “Octomom” and after already having six children on welfare, California paid for her fertility treatments so she could have eight more on welfare.  Search on Octomom to see just how irresponsible the American welfare system has become and why illegal immigrants are flocking to our shores.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadya_Suleman

 

The U.S. filed criminal charges Thursday against SAC Capital in the biggest blow yet to one of the biggest stock manipulation and insider trading empires. 

 

July 25:  Investors who are cashing out of bonds are not plunging into stocks now as the manipulators hoped and said they would.   The WSJ reported Thursday that former bond holders are buying money market mutual funds like they did in the late 1970’s when the stock market plummeted, gold soared, and money market rates topped 16% annual interest.  This means bond holders are not foolish enough to jump into the over extended stock market built on what amounts to investment cannibalism.  Investment cannibalism (mergers and acquisitions, M&A) occurs when the stock market (i.e. general economy) is not growing but the DJI and other easily manipulated stock indexes continue to rise because those carefully selected stocks take market share from the market as a whole through mergers and acquisitions that leave the economy and total stock market income stagnant and garner multiples that imply prosperity.  The Hindenburg Omen which we described June 11, 26, and July 17, reflects this polarization of the stock market when the select DJI and other index stocks distort the peaking market with M&A and resulting market share concentration.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323971204578625900935618178.html

 

And as far as Obama/Bernanke and QE3 are concerned their methods had been implemented by Japan since 1990 and have failed miserably.  QE3 is economic addiction to debt by the deliberate government manipulation of the treasury markets to drop national interest rates to allow higher lethal doses of debt leading as it did with Greece and then to a lethal overdose of debt that ultimately leads to bankruptcy such as Cyprus and Detroit are experiencing now.  Japan’s stock market is lower today in American dollars than it was in 1990.

 

The market manipulators pick and chose stocks to manipulate, stocks like Netflix, HP, Microsoft, and Apple which have had their day and continue to be the favorites of a few and can catch fire when pumped, and then get dumped again.  The pumping and dumping eventually shows up in the market polarization that then gives the classic Hindenburg Omen.  However, that Omen is a caution that manipulation is going on it is not the market peak itself.  It occurred in the run-up in August 2010 after the stock market bottomed in 2009.  So in that case it said it was time to buy because the hedge funds were loading up on the index stocks not to intentionally manipulate the index but because the stocks in the index are selected to be the safest and most likely to advance.  And it is because they are among the best that they outperform the stock market.  And because they outperform they are quoted by the market manipulators to pretend the market can still rise even after the average stock and the economy have stagnated.  So now you see the whole cycle.   

 

The last market bottom was in March 2009.  The market blowout could be the end to this business cycle with the 4.5 year advance.  The previous advance was 5.5 years but the average advance is less than 4 years.  The average decline at the end of a business cycle is about a year and is -25% to -60%.  It is also possible that if significant real economic improvement materializes now there could be a smaller 20%-30%.   The last collapse in 2008 was not due to high FED rates but rather it was high Bush Administration War debt and monetized US real estate fraud with the creation of Liar Loan derivatives (tranches) that were marketed world-wide.  This bear market collapse may be attributed to welfare- food stamp -student loan-and other entitlement fraud, plus the collapse of in-debt cities and states due to a collapse in the municipal bond market that bond holders are now just beginning to abandon.

 

July 23: A sharp crack appeared in the edifice of stock market manipulation yesterday.  Stock market manipulators suppressed the reporting of the Dow Jones Transportation Average which plunged 0.95% while the other 30 Dow Stocks were still supported.  Transportation revenue has been going nowhere since the Obama Depression began.  The advances in the markets have been based on the few companies in the averages cannibalizing the companies that are not followed.  The Dow Jones Transportation average has begun to straddle and cross below its 50 day moving average support line.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJT&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e50&a=m26-12-9&c=

 

Prior to 1963 the vast majority of financial aid went to reward qualified students who had worked hard and demonstrated a competence and an ability to complete college.  Scholarships and grants were then a reward to motivate students to study harder.  Today under the advance of socialist professors and unions in our educational system, education does not reward students who work hard.  The healthy two parent families that pay most of the USA taxes and raise the most competent children are penalized since their children get no recognition for their hard work.   The priorities of universities however are different from those of the Obama socialized educational system where teachers and students are rewarded on Karl Marx’s basis of need not competency.  Federal Pell grants, which must be paid back specifically, target students who are not committed and they ignore better-qualified students.  Fewer than 50% of these students typically finish college.  The money is therefore used for half these students to brag and party and the problem of dropping out due to pregnancy is increasing.  Wedlock and welfare affects a significant portion of these students.  Since those grants are government backed loans the universities are willing to loan more on the basis of need rather than likelihood of a successful completion because the taxpayer is hammered not the college. This year, 63 percent of applying families earning less than $35,000 a year received an average of $6,170 in such grants.    Only 19 percent went to middle income families who normally finish college and they each received a smaller amount.  College scholarships, though, were given based on anticipated student successful completion rate because they invest in the students who are likely to complete college and pay back more in donations from their successful careers.  Thirty-five percent of low-income families got an average of $7,237 in scholarships, while 36 percent of better prepared students got an average of $10,213 in scholarships. Sixty nine percent of the scholarships for investment in these students come from the schools themselves rather than nonprofit or public sources.  This confirms the results of a recent study by the New America Foundation that found that schools are increasingly using aid to lure more intellectually qualified students rather than targeting those most in need as pure socialism requires.  So better prepared and more committed students and parents are still getting a helping hand because they are expected to still pay back everything plus more in future donations to their alma mater.  That makes the socialists who have infiltrated the American educational system very unhappy.

 

July 23: Yesterday's sell off in Yahoo (YHOO) has smart money saying that now is the time to sell holdings. Dan Loeb decided to sell two-thirds of his holdings affirming the smart money is taking profits now while they still can. Now no one will notice when he sells the rest and the pundits pretend it is only YHOO that is maxed out in price.

 

In anticipation of weak sales, US Treasuries fell in advance of the coming sale of $35 billion of two- year notes. A growing number of economists surveyed by Bloomberg speculate the Federal Reserve will trim the Fed’s monthly bond buying to $65 billion from the current pace of $85 billion by this September.

 

July 22: The WSJ reported that the Group of 20 nations agreed to place growth before austerity amid mounting fears that the global recovery remains perilously weak, unstable, and uneven. The long-anticipated acceleration in the U.S. economy was just more disappointing economic and corporate-earnings reports that have dashed the last hopes that the U.S. was at last entering a phase of solid, self-sustaining growth. Economists are predicting no rebound yet but continued unemployment, higher prices and higher interest rates putting severe cost pressure on the corporations that became highly leveraged when loans were cheap. Many on Squawk now predict a sharp drop in stock and bond prices as high debt is shed. The consensus this morning is it will be after Labor Day but we have already gotten a sell signal July 8 and that normally gives no more than a single month or less warning.

 

There also are signs that consumers—whose spending has helped prop up the economy for much of the past year—are beginning to tighten their belts. Retail sales grew a paltry 0.4% in June, Commerce Department figures showed, and would have been even worse if higher gasoline prices hadn't forced drivers to spend more at the pump.

 

The Wall Street Journal reported Holder-Obama administration’s U.S. Marshals Service has lost track of at least 2,000 encrypted two-way radios worth millions of dollars and an extreme security risk. The problem was first reported in 2011 and has continued ever since. How many thefts and for how long they have been going on have not even been determined yet. The WSJ quoted a 2011 presentation by the agency's Office of Strategic Technology saying, "It is apparent that negligence and incompetence has resulted in a grievous mismanagement of millions of dollars of USMS property," This follows the Holder-Obama administration discovered harassing political dissidents with IRS delays and audits and taping the phones and computers of journalists and apparently every American citizen. That is because the Holder-Obama administration does not want to single out terrorists because only Christians and White Anglo Saxon Protestants are responsible for the American Constitution, American freedom from the tyranny of the socialist mobs. It is very difficult for the lazy and incompetent to tear down American rights to the fruits of American citizen’s labor and intellect. It has denied the Holder-Obama desire for equality: i.e. equality of poverty under socialism.

 

 Monday, Howard Dean said on Squawk Box that there is nothing wrong with state and city worker unions forcing Republicans and Independents to pay union dues used in union contributions to buy the votes of corrupt politicians who then give the corrupt unions the pay, vacations, and benefits that are now bankrupting our cities and states.

Howard Dean said that was OK because it is no different than corrupt crony capitalism where the corrupt government administrators give contracts and bailouts to corrupt ex-politicians administrators in private companies that then funnel political contributions back to the campaigns of the corrupt politicians. He says if socialist crony business is good so is crony socialist labor.  That is how corrupt the national head of an American political party has become.  The corrupt believe one evil counterbalances the other.

 

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

 http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

 

Emerging stocks fall as commodities drop.

 

Emerging-market stocks dropped for a second day and currencies weakened as commodities declined and investors weighed prospects for an end to Federal Reserve stimulus. India’s benchmark index slid to a two-week low.

Bloomberg headline: Jobless Parisians Mean Fewer Peugeots in Slumping France

 

 The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

 The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%

 

5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 American Economy

 Jul 22

 Existing Home Sales June plummeted 2% to 5.08M from 5.18M----

 Jul 23

 FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.7% unch 0.7% +

Jul 24

MBA Mortgage Index 07/20 -1.2% down again after -2.6% ---

New Home Sales Jun 497K up from 476K competing with current abandoned housing ---

Crude Inventories 07/20 -2.825M down again -6.902M  -

Initial Jobless claims rose by 2% to 343,000 last week.

Continuing Claims 07/13 2997K down from 3114K

Durable Orders Jun 4.2% down from 5.2% ---

Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.0% down from 1.0% --

Natural Gas Inventories 07/20 41 bcf down from 58 bcf  -

 

The Markets July 26, 2013

The markets now teeter at the highs.

 

The market highs can no longer be sustained and the smart money is quietly rotating out of the market on higher volume than is going into the market.  We see increasing outflow.  When everyone runs for the exit as we estimate will occur in the next few weeks it will not be a pretty sight.  The real question will be if any of the funds break the dollar or if interest rates abruptly rise.  Gold and silver prices are rising again.

 

 We estimate more than 2% of investor cash has flowed out of the market since May and that the highs for this year will all have been established by

 

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.  This is a blog and presents publicly reported information, observations and opinions only and no advice.

 

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.

 http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

 The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

 http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 19 Corrupt politicians and corrupt unions pick the pockets of the citizens of Detroit taxpayers and the hard working retirees who buy the municipal bonds that support the city. Arbitration is the source of the corruption. Corruption is inevitable when the politicians pick the arbitrators and the unions pick the politicians. Detroit sought protection for the Motor City under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code to deal with more than $18 billion in debt and long-term obligations. Will a complete bailout with the unions coming up whole be the Obama solution and the Detroit private debt holders losing everything just as they did with Obama’s GM bailout. If that is the case municipal bond holders will have to re-evaluate risks and financial markets and the fed will see interest rates rising two or three times the current projections.

July 18 The picture the Federal Reserve painted in its beige book snapshot of the economy indicates the economy continues to be an engine running on about half of its cylinders. That's better than it was in 2010, but it expects growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, and federal budget cuts slash the growth that housing and cars. The housing market and car sales were the only sectors improving but now higher interest rates are taking its toll.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/17/july-beige-book-analysis/2525043/
The US corporations that benefited from China’s growth are now being hurt. Two years ago, Nike was so bullish on China it predicted sales there would double in four years. But China sales continues to fall the past five quarters.
Intel profit tumbled 29% on PC sales slump. IBM did not make estimates and revenue growth dropped to only 3%’
The residential real-estate market suffered a setback in June as housing starts fell to the lowest level in almost a year, curbing U.S. economic growth last quarter.
　
July 17 James S. Chanos today predicted the statistical reversion to the mean in stock values. He said that the market and individual stocks such as his latest CAT warning and his other short recommendations foe Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), while making negative comments about Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Herbalife (NYSE: HLF). James S. Chanos said the US stock market has nowhere to go but down now because the stocks are at their historic highs for revenues and financial metrics. Also he pointed out how companies such as CAT had acquired other companies and written their values down so negatively that even if the did not work out the assets would make CAT look good. James S. Chanos said American companies that benefited from China’s building boom would be hurt by China’s decline. CAT dropped continuously while he talked and was down 1.84% by the time that he had finished his presentation.
Tesla shares, which soared to a new all-time high earlier this week had the biggest one-day drop Tuesday that the stock has seen since January 2012. The hedge funds have finished their game of hyping their wares about the "booming" Obama economy and pumping up the valuation of stocks after they have bought in. That plunge in Tesla was the big investors pulling the plug one little known non-index stock at a time so that the DJI and other carefully watched indices do not signal the bear market until most of the little known stocks take a big hit.

Higher interest rates increase the cost of doing business and hurt the stock market. So business income drops as rates rise plus you get the double whammy of bonds and especially dividend paying stocks competing with regular stocks. Note that Gold prices only peaked in 1981 when interest rates peaked at 21%. Money Market CDs gave you 16% risk free interest at that time. That is what is coming and gold prices have a long way to rise. See:   http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TB3MS/
　

The broader NYSE is in agreement with all the European stock markets and they tell us the welfare state with it free wheeling spending like QE3 is killing the economies of the western world. The FTSE rose just as the NYSE and is also overpriced. Select just the last year and you see the second shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal is forming just like it is for the NYSE. The only thing different is we got the sell signal in time to get out on the rise of the second shoulder. When these markets drop it will be sudden and happening all around the world. For many small investors they will be caught off guard. The FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007 just like the NYSE and other broad market indexes. The DJI is an average of 30 stocks and is far too easy to manipulate.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=%5Eftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Only manipulated indexes (such as the DJI which has 30 carefully selected stocks) are not warning that this run-up in prices is over. And sometimes they won’t even let you see "ALL" the data. It is manipulated at least two ways. First the stocks in the index tend to be added when they are in the rapid growth stage and removed when they reach the mature stage. The second way is they are considered safe stocks and get high recommendations that are self fulfilling because they are then well known, trusted and heavily bought.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

American Economy
Jul 15
Retail Sales Jun 0.4% plummeted from 0.6% ---
Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.0% declined again from 0.3% --
Empire Manufacturing Jul 9.46 still below 10—was worse last time 7.8 –

Jul 16
Business Inventories May 0.1% still growing too much, was worse 0.3% ---
CPI Jun 0.5% at a 6% annual rate up from 0.1% or a 1.2% annual rate –
QE@ is supposed to phase out when inflation hits 2.5%
Core CPI Jun 0.2% same 0.2% still a 2.4% annual rate --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows May -$27.2B investment money is leaving the USA -$37.3B ---
Industrial Production Jun 0.3% up from 0.0% +
Capacity Utilization Jun 77.8% flat lined 77.6%
NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 57 was 52 a fluctuation

Jul 17
MBA Mortgage Index 07/13 -2.6% again after -4.0% ----
Housing Starts Jun 836K down from 928K
Building Permits Jun 911K low but slight uptick from 985K -
Crude Inventories 07/13 -6.902M fell again -9.874M ----

Jul 18
Initial Claims 07/13 334K down from 358K ++
Continuing Claims 07/06 3114K up from 2977K ---
Philadelphia Fed Jul 19.8 N.G. statistical outlier from 12.5
Leading Indicators Jun 0.0% down from 0.1% --
Natural Gas Inventories 07/13 58 bcf down from 82 bcf

The Markets July 19, 2013
Today the NYSE collided with its May high but is still 4% below the 2007 high. We estimate 2% of investor cash has flowed out of the market since May.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.  We offer just information and no advice.
The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 12,2013 The amount of USA debt that QE3 puts on the Fed’s balance sheet pales in comparison to the enormous USA debt banks hold. Currently the bank regulators are planning to double the US bank’s reserve requirements which will mean the amount banks can loan will be cut in half. It could be an enormous credit crunch and interest rates will surge even more than the effects of ending QE. The Fed already plans to let rates drift higher and approximately twice as fast as seen in the 1950’s. If a bond pays out 5% per year you get your money back within 20 years so you would be willing to buy stocks with PE’s of 20. If the rate is 10% it takes only 10 years or a PE of ~10. And that higher rates are higher competition and that is why Jim Cramer is confused and does not understand why PE ratios are not going to rise now.

Higher interest rates hurt the stock market and also increase the cost of doing business. So business income drops as rates rise plus you get the double whammy of bonds competing with stocks and especially dividend paying stocks. Note that Gold prices only peaked in 1981 when interest rates and inflation peaked. Gold prices have a long way to rise. See:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TB3MS/

July 11, 2013 U.S. stocks rose and bond yields fell today as Bernanke’s comments reassured investors that the days of loose U.S. monetary policy aren’t over. Bernanke let it be known that the FED would determine its actions from real data not the stuff the administration shovels out through the media. Greenspan earlier had said that the markets would dictate rates not Bernanke. Then on that queue the average U.S. rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was reported today to have risen to 4.51 percent, a two-year high. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The broader NYSE is in agreement with all the European stock markets and they tell us the welfare state with it free wheeling spending like QE3 is killing the economies of the western world.

FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=%5Eftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Only manipulated indexes (such as the DJI which has 30 carefully selected stocks) are not warning that this run-up in prices is over. And sometimes they won’t even let you see "ALL" the data. It is manipulated at least two ways. First the stocks in the index tend to be added when they are in the rapid growth stage and removed when they reach the mature stage. The second way is they are considered safe stocks and get high recommendations that are self fulfilling because they are then well known, trusted and heavily bought.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

July 10, 2013 Less than three months ago MSNBC Pravda told investors that reports REITs could threaten U.S. financial stability were misleading and spun it as though higher bond rates were good when in fact they were due to selling of bond assets. Since then shares of the companies, which borrowed money to make credit market bets, have dropped about 19 percent but the value of their assets has plunged much more as Federal Reserve signaled plans to slow quantitative easing and then liquidate their balance sheets of debt. Now funds are forced to continually sell to maintain the amount of borrowing relative to their net worth. This is only beginning to sink in to the owners of the bonds who happen to be the most risk intolerant of all investors. The panic has not yet begun and the stock market has indicated it is not at a major cyclic resistance level.

High interest rates will ravage the stock market and destroy bond values. Money market bank accounts will become the safe haven for risk intolerant investors as they were at the end of the Jimmy Carter fiasco.

July 8, 2013 Today, Monday July 8, 2012 we got an official stock market sell signal. It was similar to the ones we had in April of 2010 and August of 2011. We estimate that the next good buying point is at lease 8% lower than the July 2 market level and more likely 15% lower. May 21 was probably the high for this year and we are currently about 5% lower than that.   We offer opinion and publicly reported information  only and no advice.  The problem with all information and predictions is that the socialist running our government continuously produces misinformation (they tell lies or make irrelevant comparisons) because socialists are schooled highwaymen, and looters who want to take the money from productive people. It works for about 50 years until as Winston Churchill pointed out the socialists achieve equality of poverty. Then the tyranny of the looter democracy collapses and free enterprise re-emerges as it did in Eastern Europe in 1989. Sometimes the cycle takes 4000 years as it did for China.

Our computations indicate that virtually roughly 40% of the cash that flowed out of the market from 7-19-07 to the 3-9-09 bottom flowed back in by the recovery high of 4-23-10. By 7-6-10 roughly half the money that flowed in at the bottom flowed back out and we were then down roughly 75% of the original outflow from the peak. By 5-2-11 we rallied and were only down only about 50% of the cash of the original outflow that ended 3-9-09. But at the end of July 2011 to about 10-2-11 all the cash that flowed in with the premature announcements of recovery had flowed back out and the cash invested was back down to the 3-0-09 level. That was an excellent time to get 100% into the market. By 5-21-13 half the money that was out of the market on 3-9-09 and again out on 10-2-11 was back in. That being said it appears half the money that left the market since 7-19-07 appears to be used in timing the market and the other half are out completely or have possibly lost virtually everything and so 50% of the cash is being timed in and out and 50% of the cash lost appears lost permanently and will require a new generation of investors to recover. The recent market decline was on a movement of about 25% of the active cash flow that is being used for timing or in other words 25% of the 50% used in recent market timing. Some of that was recovered last week but the market timers will likely sell off soon and we predict the NYSE decline from the recent high could exceed 20% in average market index price if all if all the market timers pull out.

A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. 40 million indigents are about to get all the free heath welfare they can take for nothing. The President announced young employees would not be forced to buy unneeded health coverage that was supposed to force the young to keep the plan solvent. On the other hand there is no system in place to verify the identity of the 40 million legal indigents and keep the other 20 million illegal immigrants and other unqualified indigents from busting the budget. In England and Scandinavia the line of welfare people in waiting rooms is so long it takes two or three hours to see a Doctor. It has become so bad in socialist European countries that professionals like lawyers and doctors have unionized because the labor unions seem to own the streets and the government.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Italian 10-year bond yields 0.02 percentage point, to 4.47 percent Wednesday. That caused the bond value of the 4.5 percent security due in May 2023 to declined 1.25 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 100.63. The yield on similar-maturity Spanish bonds climbed one basis point to 4.82 percent, while Portugal’s 10-year rate increased 13 basis points to 6.90 percent.
The report from the General Administration of Customs in Beijing showed that China’s exports fell 3.1 percent and imports dropped 0.7 percent in June from a year earlier. Both declines are adding to concerns that the slowdown in China is intensifying amid weakness in both external and domestic demand as the government begins restructuring the banking system that is out of control with high risk loans from "government favored" corrupt borrowers who then loan to newly budding crime organizations where the money is laundered and sent overseas. A crackdown on corruption is looming.
Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy
Jul 8
Consumer Credit May $19.6B up from $11.1B
Jul 10
MBA Mortgage Index 07/06 -4.0% down again -11.7% ----
Wholesale Inventories May -0.5% declined from 0.2% ++
Crude Inventories 07/06 -9.874M decreased again -10.347M –
Jul 11
Initial Unemployment Claims 07/06 360K rose sharply from 343K ---
Continuing Claims 06/29 2977K also up sharply from 2933K ---
Export Prices ex-ag. Jun -0.2% declined again after -0.7% -
Import Prices ex-oil Jun -0.3% declined again after -0.3% +
Natural Gas Inventories 07/06 82 bcf improved slightly from 72 bcf
Treasury Budget Jun $116.5B increased with tax receipts from a deficit rate of -$59.7B -
Jul 12
PPI Jun 0.8% o r 9.6% per year, up from 0.5% or 6% per year. That is well over the Fed requirement for ending QE3-----
Core PPI Jun 0.2% does not make much sense again 0.1% -
Mich. Sentiment Jul 83.9 down from 84.1 --

The Markets July 12, 2013
The manipulated stock indexes are even beginning to tread water now. When was the last time MSNBC/Pravda dared show any broad average exchange index like the NYSE? They have not because the broad American indices are just like the broad European indexes and show that the American stock markets stalled out at the same levels they had in years 2000 and 2007.   That said, it means that investors today have gained nothing since the year 2000 because dividends only covered their costs.  And even though the American manipulated market indicators hit their 2000 and 2007 highs, our cash flow analysis indicates there is no more money in the market than there was in the early summer two years ago before the sharp August 2011 decline. Thursday’s opening was only one example of how it is done. To move the market sharply higher the double the share bought at the opening and get a 1% gap-up gain at very little cost. Then as others join in they very slowly sell so that most of the gain is kept for the day and the profit and are back into cash and ready to use the same game again on good news. Sometimes however they get so far from reality the market takes over and the manipulators leave it alone. Ultimately there is a reckoning day for all market manipulation and Greenspan said the market not Bernanke will put an end to QE3+.

We anticipate the current decline started in the last month will be doubled or tripled this summer. The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. 2-yr bonds are about as much as investors should risk.

The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=target

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

July 5, 2013 Do you long for a trickle down free enterprise economy as opposed to the current government orchestrated fat crony capitalist economy? Under the Obama administration the stock market soared but only the hedge fund hogs profited by buying one market segment at a time and then abandoning them to slow moving pension funds that got on board at the peaks. Under the Obama administration the wealthiest 7% are now 26% richer and the other 93% are 6% poorer. The IRS lady in charge of harassing conservatives and organizations with names that included words like liberty was paid a salary alone of $180,000 per year and she refused to testify on the grounds that it might incriminate her. Obama has made about 6 cronies millionaires by appointing cronies as GM presidents to boost their resumes and make them rich. But there are fewer people employed today in full time jobs than when the socialists were elected. And while civilization for centuries favored the core family of a mother and father, today the dysfunctional octomom family is favored and the dysfunctional family is producing more crime, porn, and poverty. America is in more danger now of rotting from the core than being attacked by communists. Even Putin is worried about the fate of the world’s last peacekeeper.

July 3
A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. The American markets have been limited now on the up side and cash is being removed from the market. We estimate that the next good buying point is at lease 8% lower than the July 2 market level and more likely 15% lower. May 21 was probably the high for this year and we are currently about 5% lower than that. The problem is that the socialist running our government continuously produces misinformation (they tell lies or make irrelevant comparisons) because socialists are schooled highwaymen, and looters who want to take the money from productive people. It works for about 50 years until as Winston Churchill pointed out the socialists achieve equality of poverty. Then the tyranny of the looter democracy collapses and free enterprise re-emerges as it did in Eastern Europe in 1989. Sometimes the cycle takes 4000 years as it did for China.
Hitler and Stalin were hateful humans who held democratic elections and always won democratically. That is what the American Founders warned us could be the "tyranny of democracy" that exists under the socialist exploiters of creative and productive people. Socialism destroys free enterprise when looters first invade corporations and their looting skills and government corruption provides the connections needed to loot the nation through the use the government contracts, spying, and insider information. That is the crony capitalist stage of the downfall of free enterprise. The socialists become the heads of corporations and contribute heavily to other socialist political campaigns just as Bloomberg, Soros and other prominent socialist do. That gets them access to special government treatment, information, contracts, and government harassment of honest people who survive that long.

The Supreme Court’s decision July 2 to uphold the California governor’s veto of a popular referendum which was a re-affirmation of the social contract of marriage marks the end of the hope of American free enterprise and compassion ever bailing out our allies’ much less fallen future National and International socialist governments. It marks the end of the incentive for American parents had to bond in the interest of a stable family raising intelligent, compassionate, and confident children who are willing to take risks to make the world better. The breakdown of the family in the inner cities has created a generation of uneducated disadvantaged children and that will now grow more rapidly. It comes on the heels of former Cuban refugee supporters of free enterprise who in the last election sided with the socialist crony capitalist looters and joined in support of illegal immigrants.
Every educated intelligent person knows that the stock market becomes irrelevant under socialism because the government makes all the decisions. When we visited Eastern Europe in 1991 we discovered that while government buildings were maintained the living quarters of people had not even been painted for 50 years and people did not have oranges to eat for about 10 years before the collapse. All of the cities and towns in Eastern Europe looked like slums. In the Soviet Union trucks would arrive at appointed buildings and drive inside their garages in the middle of the night so that local government officials could get turnips and basic foods that the other local people never saw. The Berlin Wall fell because the East Germans were literally starving to death and could no longer be placated with government disinformation and shallow promises.
A jump in job cuts in the computer and education sectors drove an increase in layoffs at U.S. firms in June.
The private sector added only 188K jobs in June but normal American free enterprise used to provide almost 1 million new jobs a month. The percentage of Americans working or owning a home has declined under the socialist Obama administration. The socialist corporate looters have infiltrated the health care and alternative energy sectors and their stocks are about 200% overpriced. It was announced last week that one looter in the Obama health care sector will get a $150,000,000 pension when he retires after 20 years work. That is three times higher than the previous highest pension in the history of America.
July 2
When the stock market is rising the 65-day moving average tends to be the lowest level where the market bounces to rise once again. When a market is in decline the 65 day moving average tends to be the highest level where the market hits and bounces down to resume the decline. When you switch from to the other you know the market has reversed. If you look at the market averages shown in the Wall street journal and Barons this week you see that the 65 day moving average says we have begun a bear stock market usually of one to two months and up to 20 to 25% total decline. The markets are already down about 8% but the final leg of the decline is the steepest. This could be just a decline in a one year upward cycle. But it could also be a four or more year bear market, the last one of which in 2008 involved a 55% drop. We are now five years into this bull market and it is getting long-in-tooth (a very old bull market). Four years up and one down is about the average business cycle since WWII.
High interest rates will hurt the stock market and destroy bond values so a maximum of 2-yr bond life is advisable. We believe Obama is even more incompetent than Jimmy Carter was and Jimmy carter gave us a misery index that hit about 24% (inflation rate plus unemployment). The Money Market paid small investors 16% interest and gold had risen from $60 to $1000 by the time Reagan defeated Carter.
The world’s Fed bankers have just two options. The world can continue to have the recession like Japan has had since 1990 with their experiment with socialism. Or governments can bite the bullet and let interest rates rise making debt expensive and have a recovery like the Union of 1989 liberated East Germany with 1945 liberated West Germany unleashed when they dropped socialism in favor of governments that are republics not dictatorships of the majority. Even China has seen the benefits of private enterprise which requires freedom and is stifled by government bureaucracies. China still has a tyranny of the majority but free enterprise is growing while the socialist government has shrinking influence. China has had 4000 years of government tyranny and still has the option of free enterprise and prosperity. But if we are going to have a free enterprise recovery we need to end QE3 and pay down the socialist welfare debt. Therefore by definition gold which is worthless under socialism will rise in price as worthless socialist money declines if the world shifts to free enterprise and prosperity.
It is fashionable argue against the use of market timing and the hawkers of worthless or overpriced investments hate it when investors say prices are historically high vs. the corporate/economic fundamentals. Those people who always say buy "Know nothing" said Jim Cramer in 2008 when it was already 25% too late to bail out. But now with prices much higher they all say stay in, don't sell, and don’t take profits because that is called market timing. The hawkers think it is ok to be wiped out for one reason; their salaries depend on investors buying. Very few of the hawkers actually ever made profits in the investments they hawk.
Our computations indicate that virtually roughly 40% of the cash that flowed out of the market from 7-19-07 to the 3-9-09 bottom flowed back in by the recovery high of 4-23-10. By 7-6-10 roughly half the money that flowed in at the bottom flowed back out and we were then down roughly 75% of the original outflow from the peak. By 5-2-11 we rallied and were only down only about 50% of the cash of the original outflow that ended 3-9-09. But at the end of July 2011 to about 10-2-11 all the cash that flowed in with the premature announcements of recovery had flowed back out and the cash invested was back down to the 3-0-09 level. That was an excellent time to get 100% into the market. By 5-21-13 half the money that was out of the market on 3-9-09 and again out on 10-2-11 was back in. That being said it appears half the money that left the market since 7-19-07 appears to be used in timing the market and the other half are out completely or have possibly lost virtually everything and so 50% of the cash is being timed in and out and 50% of the cash lost appears lost permanently and will require a new generation of investors to recover. The recent market decline was on a movement of about 25% of the active cash flow that is being used for timing or in other words 25% of the 50% used in recent market timing. Some of that was recovered last week but the market timers will likely sell off soon and we predict the NYSE decline from the recent high could exceed 20% in average market index price if all if all the market timers pull out.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Egypt's military on Monday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to the Islamist president Morsi to "meet the people's demands" or it will intervene to put forward a political road map for the country and ensure it is carried out. Morsi was democratically elected and then illegally changed the constitution to create an Islamic Sharia law dictatorship which their Supreme Court immediately rejected. The military ultimatum, it said, was a "last chance." The mass protests on Sunday brought out millions of Egyptians demanding President Mohammed Morsi's ousting as "glorious." The military said protesters expressed their opinion "in peaceful and civilized manner," and that "it is necessary that the people get a reply ... to their calls."
The latest Nokia $76 internet access phones let users connect to speedier third-generation networks.
The European Commission said thirteen banks were charged with blocking Deutsche
Boerse and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from entering the credit derivatives market in the last decade in breach of EU antitrust rules. The group which includes Goldman Sachs shut out from the CDS business between 2006 and 2009. Credit default swaps (CDS) are over-the-counter contracts that allow an investor to bet on whether a company or country will default on its bonds within a fixed period of time. It allows banking institution hawkers to sell junk like "liar loan tranches" and then bet against their own clients.
Chinese companies are no longer in the ranks of the world’s 10 biggest stocks by market value for the first time since 2006 amid a cash crunch, slower growth and hostage taking of an American factory owner for ransom.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/0626/Meet-the-American-factory-owner-held-for-ransom-in-China
Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI+Basic+Chart&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The SandP is parabolic at old inflation adjusted resistance levels which were set in 2000 and 2007 and at this level it has not even matched inflation. Simple mathematics says that after a 66.6% drop in value it has to go up 300% from the low to get back to breaking even. The market (accounting for inflation) was lower in 2007 than in 2002 and is lower now in 2013 than in 2007. And MSNBC/Pravda says we are recovering because we are at the same stock market level we had in early 2000 before the Clinton recession, the Bush election and 911.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
July 1
ISM Index Jun 50.9 up from 49.0 +
Construction Spending May 0.2% down from 0.4%-- This is corrected for the administration subtracting 0.3 from last month and adding it to this month to pretend last month was only 0.1% and this month is 0.5%. Making downward revisions after reporting is how socialist make depressing news look better than it is because the public never sees the final number because it is not news. That is why all during election year they reported 2% to 2.5% growth and predicted this year would be 3% and now they say last year the American economy grew in fact 1.5% last year.
July 2
Factory Orders May up 2.1% up from 1.3% + off a very low baseline.
General Motors saw sales rise by 6%, Chrysler was up 8%, and Ford was up 13%, led by truck sales.
Jul 3
MBA Mortgage Index 06/29 -11.7% sharply down from -3.0% ----
Challenger Job Cuts Jun 4.8% up sharply from -41.2% -----
Rather than make irrelevant comparisons here is what we should compare Obama’s numbers to.
ADP Employment Change Jun 188K very weak should been at least 800K -----
Initial Claims 06/29 343K should be no more than 100K
Continuing Claims 06/15 2933K hides actual unemployed at a record of about 4000K ----
Trade Balance May -$45.0B down from -$40.3B, But should be at least break even at 0% ---
Jul 05
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 195K flat from 195K we need 1million/more for recovery and more than 200k to keep payrolls from declining further as people leave the work force and go on entitlements.
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 202K down from 207K
Unemployment Rate Jun 7.6% flat at 7.6%
Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% up from 0.1% or 4.8% inflation
Average Workweek Jun 34.5 no change 34.5 just inflation beginning
The Markets July 5, 2013
The disappointment of Justice Roberts on the Supreme Court underlines the fact we are now in Obama’s perpetual socialist economic depression. We now have socialist control of all three branches of American government. But remember that JP Morgan made his fortune as America entered a depression. You can also make yours. He left tremendous wealth to a foundation he hoped would further American free enterprise. He would be disappointed if he knew that today his wealth would be in the hands of socialist foundation administrators. That should be a warning to those entrepreneurs who do not restrict the use of their foundation funds to productive rather than destructive ends. A sense of the hopelessness of socialism is descending on America. Quantitative Easing is en economic opiate and Obama/Bernanke has gotten America hooked.
Our cash flow analysis indicates there is no more money in the market than there was in the early summer two years ago before the sharp August 2011 decline. We anticipate the current decline started in the last month will be doubled or tripled this summer. The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. 2-yr bonds are about as much as investors should risk.
Obama is employing the same near sighted policies that Carter employed but for different reasons. Carter thought we were running out of fossil fuels and Obama thinks we are just burning too much fossil fuel. One thought there was too little and we had to conserve. The other thinks there is too much and we need to cut back. Both have been wrong and apparently understand very little about energy and thus created unemployment and misery during their terms in office.
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/061511-575513-return-of-the-dreaded-misery-index.htm
Carter thought we were running out of fossil fuels. The environmentalists then were predicting we would exhaust the world’s oil resources be 2020. They fabricated their data as they always do and environmentalists are the inventors and perpetuators of "Junk Science." They made a movie entitled Fahrenheit 450 where the atmosphere gets so hot that paper bursts into flame and people must live in air-conditioned bubble cities. The environmentalists can’t help it that they were born stupid and without integrity just like politicians except they are also devoid of any personalities.
It was not until 1990 that the environmentalists finally figured out how to fabricate the historical data needed to claim global warming was caused by humans. They did it by removing the data from the 1800’s during the Industrial Revolution when coal was burned before oil was discovered… because temperatures were lower then even though people actually died in some cities like London due to the asphyxiation from everyone burning coal. Oil burning cleaned up the environment but the normal glacial cycle was still in the warming stage regardless of CO2.
The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=target
The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia