Today we end one of the best stock market quarters since the first dead cat bounce of the Great Depression. The problem is the economy is hooked up to a life support system so while it looks like a recovery is sustainable the heart is beating only because it has a FED pacemaker and an IV from the Treasury Department. We expect a sharp drop when reality sets in. China just dropped 30% from its recent high, bounced 10% and then fell back and is now again 30% below its July high.
Today, payroll-services firm ADP is expected to report that employers in the private sector cut 200,000 jobs from their payrolls in August after cutting 298,000 in July. Also outplacement services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will report on the number of announced job cuts in August.
The final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to have shrunk at a 1.2% annualized rate, versus the previously reported 1% rate. That means the recession has continued. Analysts have been incorrect in using leading indicators to say the recession is over. Typically leading indicators are six months early but they are much worse than usual because they include the stock market as an indicator and that makes the indicator incestuous.
Market forces September 30
The stock marker yesterday could not sustain a rally yesterday after starting with futures higher again. The volume of trading yesterday rose 29% from when the market advanced on Monday.
Kraft Foods Inc. was told to put up or shut up. Britain’s mergers and acquisitions regulator has given Kraft six weeks to either submit a formal offer for the U.K. candy maker, Cadbury Plc, or end its interest.
CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender, has said it may be forced to file for bankruptcy.
Market Outlook
Asian markets were flat last night; Hong Kong down -0.3%, Japan up 0.3%, S. Korea down -1%, and Jakarta up 1%.
European markets are flat, up about +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are up about 0.3% at 8:00 AM EST yesterday's decline.
Investors have an opportunity to do better than the market averages by buying into deflated sectors and selling out of bloated sectors. Individual investors can do that just like the hedge funds but it requires a trading mentality.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Mergers and acquisitions are one way corporations use market tops profitably to grow.
Mergers and acquisitions allow firms with high PE's to profitably buy cash strapped corporations with beaten down stock prices. After the recent rally that is what is happening now. However it is not easy to profit from M&A's without illegal insider knowledge. Illegal insider trading apparently occurred at Perrot before Dell made its recent offer.
Yesterday was a Jewish Holiday and trading volume was 30% lower than usual as the S&P rose 1.8%. Today is the one-year anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss ever, when the blue chip average plummeted 777.68 points and the broad market lost $1.2 trillion in market value.
Market forces September 29
We are cautious and recommend setting market re-entry price targets anywhere from 50% of the most recent gains to down to the highs of the previous stock cycle. Many stocks are already there and many declined yesterday even as others made new highs.
Oil, gold, and commodities and some manufacturing and technology stocks have peaked and have declined close to previous lower levels. Inflation probably will become evident later this year so the recent gold and oil rally was premature.
Market Outlook
President Obama has done a great job overall at the G20 meeting. It is not often that the group focuses on real issues like the economy, Afghanistan, and Iran's nuclear threat instead of socialist wealth redistribution plans.
After falling sharply Monday, Asian markets were up last night; China down -0.3%, Hong Kong up 2%, Japan up 0.9%, and India was up 1%.
European markets are down about -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat about -0.1% at 7:00 AM EST. The sharp sell-off of a correction has not happened yet. Germany halted their political advance of the green/socialist/communist coalition with their election last weekend.
The market correction does not seem to be over. Investors are beginning to see through Jim Cramer's strategy of Wall Street low-balling quarterly profit estimates just before official announcements. Many executives play the same racketeering game and follow their bad but better than Jim Cramer income estimate with a glowing projection for the next quarter. This racketeering practice is not new to seasoned investors who do their homework. The racketeers pick their leadership sectors and buy in driving the prices higher. Then they pump up the stocks like Jim Cramer pumped up nitrates, then the financials, and then technologies such as wireless and most then recently illiquid transmission tower companies. They then recently dumped their PALM and RIMM stock holdings at profits and are probably buying them again right now as investors flee. Now is the time to be buying the stocks that the racketeers dumped as long as they have not dumped the entire sector. When they dump an entire sector they may not touch it again for a year.
Yesterday was a Jewish Holiday and trading volume was 30% lower than usual as the S&P rose 1.8%. Today is the one-year anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss ever, when the blue chip average plummeted 777.68 points and the broad market lost $1.2 trillion in market value.
Market forces September 29
We are cautious and recommend setting market re-entry price targets anywhere from 50% of the most recent gains to down to the highs of the previous stock cycle. Many stocks are already there and many declined yesterday even as others made new highs.
Oil, gold, and commodities and some manufacturing and technology stocks have peaked and have declined close to previous lower levels. Inflation probably will become evident later this year so the recent gold and oil rally was premature.
Market Outlook
President Obama has done a great job overall at the G20 meeting. It is not often that the group focuses on real issues like the economy, Afghanistan, and Iran's nuclear threat instead of socialist wealth redistribution plans.
After falling sharply Monday, Asian markets were up last night; China down -0.3%, Hong Kong up 2%, Japan up 0.9%, and India was up 1%.
European markets are down about -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat about -0.1% at 7:00 AM EST. The sharp sell-off of a correction has not happened yet. Germany halted their political advance of the green/socialist/communist coalition with their election last weekend.
The market correction does not seem to be over. Investors are beginning to see through Jim Cramer's strategy of Wall Street low-balling quarterly profit estimates just before official announcements. Many executives play the same racketeering game and follow their bad but better than Jim Cramer income estimate with a glowing projection for the next quarter. This racketeering practice is not new to seasoned investors who do their homework. The racketeers pick their leadership sectors and buy in driving the prices higher. Then they pump up the stocks like Jim Cramer pumped up nitrates, then the financials, and then technologies such as wireless and most then recently illiquid transmission tower companies. They then recently dumped their PALM and RIMM stock holdings at profits and are probably buying them again right now as investors flee. Now is the time to be buying the stocks that the racketeers dumped as long as they have not dumped the entire sector. When they dump an entire sector they may not touch it again for a year.
Monday, September 28, 2009
The Socialist/Communist group came in fourth place in the German elections.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has won re-election. In addition the Social Democrats declined to third place and were replaced by a new free enterprise loving group in second place. Ms Merkle now has a less socialist government to make Germany productive again. On the day of the German elections, the Al-Falluja jihadist forum wrote a post saying, "the mujahideen's attack against Germany is coming."
Tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss ever, when the blue chip average plummeted 777.68 points and the broad market lost $1.2 trillion in market value.
Wednesday, payroll-services firm ADP is expected to report that employers in the private sector cut 200,000 jobs from their payrolls in August after cutting 298,000 in July. Also outplacement services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will report on the number of announced job cuts in August.
The final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to have shrunk at a 1.2% annualized rate, versus the previously reported 1% rate. That means the recession has continued. Analysts have been incorrect in using leading indicators to say the recession is over. Typically leading indicators are six months early but they are much worse than usual because they include the stock market as an indicator and that makes the indicator incestuous.
Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn is speaking in Washington at the Cato Institute. He is expected to discuss exit strategies the central bank is considering as it unwinds some of the trillions it injected into the economy.
Thursday, the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department is expected to show that claims have risen to 535,000 from 530,000 in the previous week. Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been out of work for a week or more, are expected to have risen to 6.178 million from 6.138 million last week.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for September is expected to have risen to 54.0 from 52.9 in August showing that manufacturing is no longer contracting while employment has contracted. That means productivity is rising fast.
The August pending home sales index is also expected this week. Sales growth is expected to have shrunk to 1% after rising 3.2% in July. Construction spending is expected to have fallen 0.2% in August after dipping by the same amount in July. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify at the House Financial Services hearing, starting around 9 a.m. ET.
Friday the September jobs report from the Labor Department is expected to show that employers cut 180,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 216,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.8% from 9.7% in the previous month. August factory orders are expected to have risen 0.5% after rising 1.3% in July.
Market forces September 28
The stock market extended losses for three days. We are cautious and recommend setting market re-entry price targets anywhere from 50% of the most recent gains to down to the highs of the previous stock cycle. We recommend a slow re-entry.
Oil, gold, and commodities peaked and should decline to close to previous levels. Inflation probably will become evident later this year so the recent rally was premature.
Market Outlook
President Obama has done a great job overall at the G20 meeting. It is not often that the group focuses on real issues like the economy and Iran's nuclear threat instead of socialist wealth redistribution plans.
Bank of America has reportedly decided to stop working with ACORN and will no longer be intimidated any further by ACORN threats.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -2.7%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, Japan down -2.5%, S. Korea down -0.9%, and Jakarta down -1.9%.
European markets follow US futures higher, up about -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are up about 0.5% at 9:00 AM EST after the sell-off last week. The sharp sell-off of a correction has not happened yet.
The stock market correction is three days old now. If the correction is just 9% overall, then since many stocks will not decline that means many stocks will drop 20% or more to make up the average decline. Technology stocks usually show the greatest changes. Therefore hedge funds have an opportunity to do better than the market averages by buying deflated sectors and selling or shorting bloated sectors. To some extent individual investors can do the same but it requires a trading mentality.
Tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss ever, when the blue chip average plummeted 777.68 points and the broad market lost $1.2 trillion in market value.
Wednesday, payroll-services firm ADP is expected to report that employers in the private sector cut 200,000 jobs from their payrolls in August after cutting 298,000 in July. Also outplacement services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will report on the number of announced job cuts in August.
The final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to have shrunk at a 1.2% annualized rate, versus the previously reported 1% rate. That means the recession has continued. Analysts have been incorrect in using leading indicators to say the recession is over. Typically leading indicators are six months early but they are much worse than usual because they include the stock market as an indicator and that makes the indicator incestuous.
Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn is speaking in Washington at the Cato Institute. He is expected to discuss exit strategies the central bank is considering as it unwinds some of the trillions it injected into the economy.
Thursday, the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department is expected to show that claims have risen to 535,000 from 530,000 in the previous week. Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been out of work for a week or more, are expected to have risen to 6.178 million from 6.138 million last week.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for September is expected to have risen to 54.0 from 52.9 in August showing that manufacturing is no longer contracting while employment has contracted. That means productivity is rising fast.
The August pending home sales index is also expected this week. Sales growth is expected to have shrunk to 1% after rising 3.2% in July. Construction spending is expected to have fallen 0.2% in August after dipping by the same amount in July. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify at the House Financial Services hearing, starting around 9 a.m. ET.
Friday the September jobs report from the Labor Department is expected to show that employers cut 180,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 216,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 9.8% from 9.7% in the previous month. August factory orders are expected to have risen 0.5% after rising 1.3% in July.
Market forces September 28
The stock market extended losses for three days. We are cautious and recommend setting market re-entry price targets anywhere from 50% of the most recent gains to down to the highs of the previous stock cycle. We recommend a slow re-entry.
Oil, gold, and commodities peaked and should decline to close to previous levels. Inflation probably will become evident later this year so the recent rally was premature.
Market Outlook
President Obama has done a great job overall at the G20 meeting. It is not often that the group focuses on real issues like the economy and Iran's nuclear threat instead of socialist wealth redistribution plans.
Bank of America has reportedly decided to stop working with ACORN and will no longer be intimidated any further by ACORN threats.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -2.7%, Hong Kong down -2.1%, Japan down -2.5%, S. Korea down -0.9%, and Jakarta down -1.9%.
European markets follow US futures higher, up about -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are up about 0.5% at 9:00 AM EST after the sell-off last week. The sharp sell-off of a correction has not happened yet.
The stock market correction is three days old now. If the correction is just 9% overall, then since many stocks will not decline that means many stocks will drop 20% or more to make up the average decline. Technology stocks usually show the greatest changes. Therefore hedge funds have an opportunity to do better than the market averages by buying deflated sectors and selling or shorting bloated sectors. To some extent individual investors can do the same but it requires a trading mentality.
Friday, September 25, 2009
U.S. stock-index futures Tumble as durable goods orders reportedly slumped in August.
Market forces September 25
The stock market extended losses yesterday as new job losses continued in the hundreds of thousands. Home sales also fell yesterday and today it is reported that durable goods orders slumped. Jim Cramer is optimistic though and said this new correction will be no more than 5%, not the 10% to 20% correction many are expecting. JC is usually optimistic.
Oil, gold, and commodities dropped as economy appears to be stalling and depression fears rise again.
Market Outlook
Obama and Barney Franks did noting to reign in the corruption and incompetence of the SEC and the other regulators. So the bankers gave themselves bonuses for getting away with their highway robbery. Quietly Barney and the socialists in Congress have just reinstated taxpayer funding for the corrupt ACORN organization.
Worldwide credit remains tight. A bubble has been caused by TARP money being used to free up financial institution cash for stock market speculation instead of for loans. That stock market TARP bubble may finally be bursting. If so, the stock speculating financial institutions will face great losses and may request additional TARP funds. Taxpayers are even being asked to fund stock market bubbles these days.
The Obama administration has done nothing to break apart the financial institutions into banks and stock equities market firms as they existed before 1998.
Asian markets were down last night; China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, Japan down -2.6%, S. Korea down -0.1%, and India down -0.5%.
European markets are flat but highly variant about -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down slightly at 8:00 AM EST after the sell-off following yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.
The stock market correction appears to be two days old now. If the correction is just 9% overall, many stocks will not change and that means many stocks will drop 20% or more to make up the difference. Technology stocks usually show the greatest changes.
The stock market extended losses yesterday as new job losses continued in the hundreds of thousands. Home sales also fell yesterday and today it is reported that durable goods orders slumped. Jim Cramer is optimistic though and said this new correction will be no more than 5%, not the 10% to 20% correction many are expecting. JC is usually optimistic.
Oil, gold, and commodities dropped as economy appears to be stalling and depression fears rise again.
Market Outlook
Obama and Barney Franks did noting to reign in the corruption and incompetence of the SEC and the other regulators. So the bankers gave themselves bonuses for getting away with their highway robbery. Quietly Barney and the socialists in Congress have just reinstated taxpayer funding for the corrupt ACORN organization.
Worldwide credit remains tight. A bubble has been caused by TARP money being used to free up financial institution cash for stock market speculation instead of for loans. That stock market TARP bubble may finally be bursting. If so, the stock speculating financial institutions will face great losses and may request additional TARP funds. Taxpayers are even being asked to fund stock market bubbles these days.
The Obama administration has done nothing to break apart the financial institutions into banks and stock equities market firms as they existed before 1998.
Asian markets were down last night; China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, Japan down -2.6%, S. Korea down -0.1%, and India down -0.5%.
European markets are flat but highly variant about -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down slightly at 8:00 AM EST after the sell-off following yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.
The stock market correction appears to be two days old now. If the correction is just 9% overall, many stocks will not change and that means many stocks will drop 20% or more to make up the difference. Technology stocks usually show the greatest changes.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Worldwide reaction brews to obscene banking bonuses. Heads need to roll.
The current looting of bailout money by the very people who mismanaged the world financial institutions is causing a worldwide reaction against free enterprise. In Germany a new socialist/communist party called "Linke" is growing. It is made up of former E. German Communists, W. German Unionists and disgusted Germans.
Market forces September 24
The Federal Reserve signaled that the U.S. economy’s return to growth is insufficient to withdraw stimulus as officials seek to reduce the high unemployment rate. The FED decided yesterday afternoon to continue their game of buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expenses and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases of US treasuries.
Many in the world are petrified with fear of the clear incompetence of banking and regulation personnel in the USA. In a Wall Street Journal article yesterday Barney Franks was quoted as wanting an impartial non-racist investigation of the sting operation that caught ACORN advising the stingers on "political" matters such as deceiving the IRS and setting up a regulation free child prostitution home for inner city kids. According to Barney Franks corruption redistributes wealth better than free enterprise and sting operations should be illegal because the corrupt individuals have a right to keep their conversation private and should be asked in advance if they would allow their conversations to be taped.
In any event the incompetence and corruption of bankers, regulators and politicians like Barney Frank are causing a massive reaction of revulsion in the USA and abroad. Heads need to roll. The objective of the growing American "Tea Party" is to throw all the incumbent politicians out in 2010.
The stock market plummeted almost 2% after being up prior to the Abernanke decision to do nothing again. This bungling administration would cause a great depression yet if they are given the chance but Americans are becoming impatience with the continued evidence of gross incompetence, pervasive corruption, and politician's socialist desires to get their hands in taxpayer's pockets and investigate anyone who is opposed to their nationalist socialist fascism and corruption.
When the FED buys treasuries the treasury must print the money and that will debase the dollar and become highly inflationary. Perhaps FED inaction will precipitate the overdue stock market correction.
Market Outlook
Global leaders are saddled with the weakest recovery since World War II as they will have to pay off the $9 trillion IOU they ran up rescuing the world economy from financial and political corruption. It was a corrupt Senate Banking Committee that structured the system to give people houses they could not afford. It was the bankers who structured the financial derivatives to hide the fact that the mortgage derivatives were junk. It was the Senate Banking Committee that thwarted the investigations of Ginnie Mai, Freddie Mac, and ACORN.
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks and skimming off the taxpayer bailout with IPOs and stock accumulation by financial institutions that were at one time forbidden to speculate in the stock market. Is it right to use taxpayer bailout cash to drive up stock prices while many taxpayers are frozen in fear in low interest paying Treasuries and money market funds?
Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) provided no evidence that the Fed is about to wind down its out of control financial stimulus measures. Neither did the FED provide any evidence of a willingness to shoot corrupt politicians and bank looters as people around the world are beginning to demand as a great means to bolster consumer confidence. Many in the world would like to see the Senate Banking Committee put in front of a Communist Chinese firing squad. The Chinese take decisive action when their people fail. Instead the FED decided to let their market bubble expand and continue to destabilize the dollar.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong down -2.5%, S. Korea down -1%, and India up 0.4%.
European markets are down about -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat again at 7:00 AM EST after the sell-off following yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
Market forces September 24
The Federal Reserve signaled that the U.S. economy’s return to growth is insufficient to withdraw stimulus as officials seek to reduce the high unemployment rate. The FED decided yesterday afternoon to continue their game of buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expenses and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases of US treasuries.
Many in the world are petrified with fear of the clear incompetence of banking and regulation personnel in the USA. In a Wall Street Journal article yesterday Barney Franks was quoted as wanting an impartial non-racist investigation of the sting operation that caught ACORN advising the stingers on "political" matters such as deceiving the IRS and setting up a regulation free child prostitution home for inner city kids. According to Barney Franks corruption redistributes wealth better than free enterprise and sting operations should be illegal because the corrupt individuals have a right to keep their conversation private and should be asked in advance if they would allow their conversations to be taped.
In any event the incompetence and corruption of bankers, regulators and politicians like Barney Frank are causing a massive reaction of revulsion in the USA and abroad. Heads need to roll. The objective of the growing American "Tea Party" is to throw all the incumbent politicians out in 2010.
The stock market plummeted almost 2% after being up prior to the Abernanke decision to do nothing again. This bungling administration would cause a great depression yet if they are given the chance but Americans are becoming impatience with the continued evidence of gross incompetence, pervasive corruption, and politician's socialist desires to get their hands in taxpayer's pockets and investigate anyone who is opposed to their nationalist socialist fascism and corruption.
When the FED buys treasuries the treasury must print the money and that will debase the dollar and become highly inflationary. Perhaps FED inaction will precipitate the overdue stock market correction.
Market Outlook
Global leaders are saddled with the weakest recovery since World War II as they will have to pay off the $9 trillion IOU they ran up rescuing the world economy from financial and political corruption. It was a corrupt Senate Banking Committee that structured the system to give people houses they could not afford. It was the bankers who structured the financial derivatives to hide the fact that the mortgage derivatives were junk. It was the Senate Banking Committee that thwarted the investigations of Ginnie Mai, Freddie Mac, and ACORN.
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks and skimming off the taxpayer bailout with IPOs and stock accumulation by financial institutions that were at one time forbidden to speculate in the stock market. Is it right to use taxpayer bailout cash to drive up stock prices while many taxpayers are frozen in fear in low interest paying Treasuries and money market funds?
Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) provided no evidence that the Fed is about to wind down its out of control financial stimulus measures. Neither did the FED provide any evidence of a willingness to shoot corrupt politicians and bank looters as people around the world are beginning to demand as a great means to bolster consumer confidence. Many in the world would like to see the Senate Banking Committee put in front of a Communist Chinese firing squad. The Chinese take decisive action when their people fail. Instead the FED decided to let their market bubble expand and continue to destabilize the dollar.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong down -2.5%, S. Korea down -1%, and India up 0.4%.
European markets are down about -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat again at 7:00 AM EST after the sell-off following yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Baltic Dry Index continues to decline under economic stagnation
Market forces September 23
The Baltic Dry Index peaked in June as optimism began to surpass reality and inventories were allowed to grow. But since then the only market to grow has been the stock market. World growth has stagnated again but inflation has stemmed the declines in real estate and stock prices. Inflation is already at hand yet is being interpreted incorrectly as demand for commodities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Light crude oil and industrial copper trade now in a narrow range responding to stagflation (stagnation with inflation) but gold’s advances are affected by inflation and are unaffected by the economic stagnation.
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/HG_/99
The FED has been buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expense and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases. When the FED does that the treasury must print the money and that will eventually drastically weaken the dollar and become highly inflationary. The Financial Forecast Center predicts inflation has already started and will hit 3% this year.
http://www.forecasts.org/inflation.htm
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks. Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision on interest rates is due out today. Markets will be looking for inevitable evidence that the Fed is about to wind down on its unconventional financial stimulus measures given the recent optimism of Bernanke. If they continue to let the bubble expand it could destabilize the dollar.
Asian markets were down last night; China down -1.9%, Hong Kong up 0.5%, Japan markets closed, and India down -1%. Indian inflation has returned
European markets are up from 0.2% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 7:00 AM EST before the opening awaiting Federal Reserve decision.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction at any time. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
The Baltic Dry Index peaked in June as optimism began to surpass reality and inventories were allowed to grow. But since then the only market to grow has been the stock market. World growth has stagnated again but inflation has stemmed the declines in real estate and stock prices. Inflation is already at hand yet is being interpreted incorrectly as demand for commodities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Light crude oil and industrial copper trade now in a narrow range responding to stagflation (stagnation with inflation) but gold’s advances are affected by inflation and are unaffected by the economic stagnation.
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/HG_/99
The FED has been buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expense and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases. When the FED does that the treasury must print the money and that will eventually drastically weaken the dollar and become highly inflationary. The Financial Forecast Center predicts inflation has already started and will hit 3% this year.
http://www.forecasts.org/inflation.htm
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks. Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision on interest rates is due out today. Markets will be looking for inevitable evidence that the Fed is about to wind down on its unconventional financial stimulus measures given the recent optimism of Bernanke. If they continue to let the bubble expand it could destabilize the dollar.
Asian markets were down last night; China down -1.9%, Hong Kong up 0.5%, Japan markets closed, and India down -1%. Indian inflation has returned
European markets are up from 0.2% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 7:00 AM EST before the opening awaiting Federal Reserve decision.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction at any time. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The IPO Surge we are seeing now is an indicator of a market top.
It is not an indicator of a coming recovery but rather the end of a recovery when junk stocks are so high in price that they can be used to buy out sound companies just like when AOL bought up Time Warner right before the Tech-Stock bubble meltdown in 2000.
To cool off its IPO market, China has now stopped granting new licenses to many new untested institutions so they cannot bid alongside other financial counterparts for initial public offerings.
Market forces September 22
Light crude oil dropped below $70 a barrel again as gold slid to $1005/oz. The $US is still weak at $1.47 per Euro.
The FED has been buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expense and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases. When the FED does that the treasury must print the money and that will eventually weaken the dollar and become inflationary.
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks. Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision on interest rates is due out Wednesday. Markets will be looking for inevitable evidence that the Fed is about to wind down on its unconventional financial stimulus measures given the recent optimism of Bernanche.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China down -2.3%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, Japan markets closed, and India up 0.9%. Indian inflation has returned
European markets are up from 0.9% to -1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.6% at 7:00 AM EST before the opening. The Federal Reserve starts its two-day monetary policy meeting today, and economists expect the FOMC to hold the target range for overnight interest rates low at zero to 0.25 percent.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction at any time. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
To cool off its IPO market, China has now stopped granting new licenses to many new untested institutions so they cannot bid alongside other financial counterparts for initial public offerings.
Market forces September 22
Light crude oil dropped below $70 a barrel again as gold slid to $1005/oz. The $US is still weak at $1.47 per Euro.
The FED has been buying US Treasuries to depress the interest expense and compensate for the decline in foreign purchases. When the FED does that the treasury must print the money and that will eventually weaken the dollar and become inflationary.
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight due to de-leveraging of banks. Free world consumer demand continues to decline. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision on interest rates is due out Wednesday. Markets will be looking for inevitable evidence that the Fed is about to wind down on its unconventional financial stimulus measures given the recent optimism of Bernanche.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China down -2.3%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, Japan markets closed, and India up 0.9%. Indian inflation has returned
European markets are up from 0.9% to -1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.6% at 7:00 AM EST before the opening. The Federal Reserve starts its two-day monetary policy meeting today, and economists expect the FOMC to hold the target range for overnight interest rates low at zero to 0.25 percent.
We are very cautious now in anticipation of a sudden correction at any time. The percentage of bullish investment advisors now rivals that seen at the 2007 market peak.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Run away market bubble
Market forces September 21
U.S. stock-index futures declined over night on concern the six-month rally in equities has outpaced the outlook for earnings and economic growth. Shares in Asia and Europe retreated.
Gold, oil prices and potash fertilizer topped out and fell overnight on lower demand. Stock futures dropped about 0.7% overnight after markets rallied 2.5 percent last week on signs that the economy was improving. The 58 percent rebound in the S&P index for U.S. equities from its 12-year low March 9 pushed valuations to about 19.7 times the reported (declining) earnings, the highest PE level since 2004, according to Bloomberg.
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight. China has squandered much of its cash stimulating its economy while the market for China’s exports is now declining. A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. Free world consumer demand continues to decline.
Asian markets were down cautiously last night; China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.7%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.2%. Indian inflation returned and food prices are surging.
European markets are down sharply from -0.6% to -1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.7% at 7:00 AM EST before the opening.
The current market bubble seems about to pop. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks.
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years. In the end inflation will raise the interest rate on the burgeoning US the way increasing variable rate mortgages caught up with and bankrupted homeowners.
U.S. stock-index futures declined over night on concern the six-month rally in equities has outpaced the outlook for earnings and economic growth. Shares in Asia and Europe retreated.
Gold, oil prices and potash fertilizer topped out and fell overnight on lower demand. Stock futures dropped about 0.7% overnight after markets rallied 2.5 percent last week on signs that the economy was improving. The 58 percent rebound in the S&P index for U.S. equities from its 12-year low March 9 pushed valuations to about 19.7 times the reported (declining) earnings, the highest PE level since 2004, according to Bloomberg.
Market Outlook
Worldwide credit remains tight. China has squandered much of its cash stimulating its economy while the market for China’s exports is now declining. A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. Free world consumer demand continues to decline.
Asian markets were down cautiously last night; China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.7%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.2%. Indian inflation returned and food prices are surging.
European markets are down sharply from -0.6% to -1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.7% at 7:00 AM EST before the opening.
The current market bubble seems about to pop. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks.
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years. In the end inflation will raise the interest rate on the burgeoning US the way increasing variable rate mortgages caught up with and bankrupted homeowners.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Another Mr. Stupid was on MSNBC last night but did not fair as well.
Market forces September 18
Another Mr. Stupid on GE/MSNBC/Pravda last night said that $3 trillion would enter the stock market now because people will be taking everything out of the Money Market (MM) and putting it into the stock market. All of these Mr. MSNBC Stupids are unaware that people have money in Treasuries, the money market, and bonds because they are trying to preserve their capital not because they want aggressive growth. Jim Cramer last night advised that people wishing to preserve capital should get out of Treasuries now and go into the Money Market because the Treasuries are going to take a big hit as interest rates rise because China and others will be buying less USA debt. Today happens to be when the FEDs money market guarantee expires so MM rates should become better. That MM guarantee was given during the meltdown a year ago. We think a stock market correction is now due.
Market Outlook
A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. President Obama introduced tariffs on tires that are from an industry Japan already dominates in America. Billions of taxpayer dollars are already going to stimulate the trade unions rather than American jobs. This is another example where the unions and even Japan are put ahead of the American taxpayers. Most of Obama's election contributions were just under the amount that requires the disclosure of the contributor so we do not know where most of the money came from. It was an obscene amount contributed that way according to Clinton people.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -3.2%, Hong Kong down -0.7%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.2%.
European markets are cautious and down slightly from 0.1% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are cautiously flat again at 7:00 AM EST before the opening.
The current market bubble is about to pop. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks or to exit fast unless you can wait a few months to recover.
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years. In the end inflation will raise the interest rate on the growing (ultimately $15 trillion) US debt and bankrupt America the way increasing variable rate mortgages caught up with and bankrupted homeowners.
Under socialism, democracy is first a license to steal and eventually a license to murder. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. Until now America has been the world's peace keeper. Yesterday President Obama took another step backward from that roll and took away the missile defense system that would have protected Europe from lunatics launching missiles from Iran. Last week he turned the 911 anniversary into a day of remembrance and service to the government. If America becomes a socialist tyranny the western world will collapse into the socialist chaos that has dominated most of the world outside the sphere of American influence.
The worker/producers then become the slaves of the socialist tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp to die. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all famous democratically elected socialist dictators. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an increasingly indigent/corrupt/maniacal majority. Socialism grows by taking from a few to give to the masses. The tipping point occurs when the masses of the corrupt, indigent, and lunatic left become the voting majority and the socialist dictator gets elected on his promises to change things. Hitler's Nationalist Socialists and Lenin's Communists did indeed change things and millions of Germans and Russians were murdered because they opposed the changes. Sadam Hussein loved to throw his protestors off rooftops and to throw his enemies into vats of acid. Sadam did not trust the military and created a "new army," his own Personal Guard with power over the Iraqi military. Obama is the name of the flying beast that the Koran says brought Mohammed to Jerusalem when Mohammed died. Hussein Obama, Jimmy Carter, the DNC, and the ELCA now seem intent on turning Israel over to the Hamas organization.
Very few socialist tyrants were ever overthrown without outside help. So when the USA is itself socialist and out of the police keeping picture as Obama wants, and when this last free enterprise Republic elects a socialist tyranny, the whole world will fall into the equal state of poverty, ignorance, superstition, starvation, genocide, and perpetual war.
The purpose of this very negative scenario is to awaken people so that they vote out the people who are turning America into a bankrupt socialist state. Americans are strong enough to take responsibility for their own health and welfare and still do not need a government to dictate to them how to live, what to eat, what cars to buy, and what to do.
Another Mr. Stupid on GE/MSNBC/Pravda last night said that $3 trillion would enter the stock market now because people will be taking everything out of the Money Market (MM) and putting it into the stock market. All of these Mr. MSNBC Stupids are unaware that people have money in Treasuries, the money market, and bonds because they are trying to preserve their capital not because they want aggressive growth. Jim Cramer last night advised that people wishing to preserve capital should get out of Treasuries now and go into the Money Market because the Treasuries are going to take a big hit as interest rates rise because China and others will be buying less USA debt. Today happens to be when the FEDs money market guarantee expires so MM rates should become better. That MM guarantee was given during the meltdown a year ago. We think a stock market correction is now due.
Market Outlook
A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. President Obama introduced tariffs on tires that are from an industry Japan already dominates in America. Billions of taxpayer dollars are already going to stimulate the trade unions rather than American jobs. This is another example where the unions and even Japan are put ahead of the American taxpayers. Most of Obama's election contributions were just under the amount that requires the disclosure of the contributor so we do not know where most of the money came from. It was an obscene amount contributed that way according to Clinton people.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -3.2%, Hong Kong down -0.7%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.2%.
European markets are cautious and down slightly from 0.1% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are cautiously flat again at 7:00 AM EST before the opening.
The current market bubble is about to pop. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks or to exit fast unless you can wait a few months to recover.
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years. In the end inflation will raise the interest rate on the growing (ultimately $15 trillion) US debt and bankrupt America the way increasing variable rate mortgages caught up with and bankrupted homeowners.
Under socialism, democracy is first a license to steal and eventually a license to murder. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. Until now America has been the world's peace keeper. Yesterday President Obama took another step backward from that roll and took away the missile defense system that would have protected Europe from lunatics launching missiles from Iran. Last week he turned the 911 anniversary into a day of remembrance and service to the government. If America becomes a socialist tyranny the western world will collapse into the socialist chaos that has dominated most of the world outside the sphere of American influence.
The worker/producers then become the slaves of the socialist tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp to die. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all famous democratically elected socialist dictators. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an increasingly indigent/corrupt/maniacal majority. Socialism grows by taking from a few to give to the masses. The tipping point occurs when the masses of the corrupt, indigent, and lunatic left become the voting majority and the socialist dictator gets elected on his promises to change things. Hitler's Nationalist Socialists and Lenin's Communists did indeed change things and millions of Germans and Russians were murdered because they opposed the changes. Sadam Hussein loved to throw his protestors off rooftops and to throw his enemies into vats of acid. Sadam did not trust the military and created a "new army," his own Personal Guard with power over the Iraqi military. Obama is the name of the flying beast that the Koran says brought Mohammed to Jerusalem when Mohammed died. Hussein Obama, Jimmy Carter, the DNC, and the ELCA now seem intent on turning Israel over to the Hamas organization.
Very few socialist tyrants were ever overthrown without outside help. So when the USA is itself socialist and out of the police keeping picture as Obama wants, and when this last free enterprise Republic elects a socialist tyranny, the whole world will fall into the equal state of poverty, ignorance, superstition, starvation, genocide, and perpetual war.
The purpose of this very negative scenario is to awaken people so that they vote out the people who are turning America into a bankrupt socialist state. Americans are strong enough to take responsibility for their own health and welfare and still do not need a government to dictate to them how to live, what to eat, what cars to buy, and what to do.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Mr. Stupid was on Kudlow's show last night and Kudlow agreed with him.
Market forces September 17
Mr. Stupid said there were no 10% corrections in previous bull markets and this market will go straight up. Kudlow thanked him and said he agreed with him and "this was a "V" shaped recovery." That is GE/MSNBC/Pavda the voice of socialism speaking of course.
In truth though… corrections are seldom more than a 50% loss of the previous market gain and the average historical run up occurs four times a year. Since the average stock market yearly gain has been less than 10% per year that makes an average four mini cycle gains about 5% each followed by a 2.5% corrections for a total of four 2.5% net advances per year. So yes, 10% corrections are very rare. They occur when there are rallies that are greater than 20%. A 50% correction of a 20% rally would be ten percent. When a 50% correction does not occur immediately there is usually a massive correction later. We have had two 5% market corrections this year and that is very small considering the 40% advance thus far. China had an 80% advance and only a 20% correction thus far. These types of quarterly bubble run-ups are usually followed up with a major correction a year later. Longer term annual run-ups are usually followed by the major bear market corrections we see every four to six years.
The stock market advances we are seeing right now are unsustainable bubbles.
We need to remember that FDR and Obama inherited recessions and then imposed socialist programs that caused the first "Great Depression" and Obama is still working hard at causing the second "Great Depression." In the first "Great Depression there was also a 50% DJI rally the first year followed by a decline that bottomed the second year wiping out the entire first rally of that depression. It is clear that the rally we are in right now is a bubble and it is dangerous because some think socialist nationalization and taxation may actually help the economy. We could have a second "Great Depression" thanks to Obama.
Cuba is an excellent example of socialist central planning and socialist equality of poverty. The United States has been the engine of free enterprise innovation and competition that has kept our own socialist allies from becoming like Cuba and the other socialist states that resist American innovation and the American culture of generosity and free enterprise. The nations that hate our American culture universally live in poverty. China is rising now because President Nixon and Kissinger opened Red China up to the American culture of generosity and free enterprise. Japan has declined because they decided to reject American creative destruction of old technologies and jobs and instead went the route of socialist guaranteed life employment just when they were starting to catch up with America in the mid 1980's.
Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid on GE/MSNBC/Pavda think the people with $3 Trillion in money market funds will now buy stocks and will sustain the stock market rally because the stock market bubble is so attractive. But Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid do not realize how stupid that idea is. The money markets, treasury bonds, and corporate bonds are what finance almost everything. Equities are used mostly for capital formation of new business and products. The recession has killed the initial public stock offering (IPO) business that is the primary purpose for having a stock market. Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid are mistaken in thinking that the purpose of the stock market is the creation of stock market bubbles just as Obama was mistaken in thinking the stock market was just an economic indicator.
A congressman on Kudlow's show went on to explain that Obama is not engaged in protectionism of America's tire industry because first of all our trade agreement allows protectionism, and secondly because we are actually just protecting Japan that makes 95% of American tires. He is one of many "Mr. Stupids" that Mr. Kudlow loves to listen to.
Market Outlook
A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. The stock market continues to bubble upward. The Wall Street risk appetite is high and a record number of rank amateurs are now betting with and against the market with puts and calls and now the "day traders" are back like they were in 2000 at the height of that bubble.
We expect relatively good housing and economic news because GE/MSNBC/Pavda continue to miss-inform. For instance if sales dropped 5% last September and actually declined 4% again this September they report sales improved 1% this September. Most people will not grasp that things actually got 4% worse again and only the slope of the decline is 1% less than last year.
A sharp market decline is now possible at any time because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Buying opportunities occur when a sector is rotated out of hedge fund popularity.
Asian markets were up last night, China up 2%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, Japan up 1.7%, and India up 0.3%.
European markets are currently up from 0.3% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 7:00 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market bubble is dangerous. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. But markets have been known to bubble up irrationally for years. An irrationally high PE does not mean a correction will happen anytime soon. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks or be prepared to exit fast. Jim Cramer reminded people that "pigs get slaughtered."
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years.
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal and eventually to murder. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. The worker/producers then become the slaves of the tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp to die. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all famous democratically elected socialist dictators. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an indigent/corrupt/maniacal majority. Socialism grows by taking from a few to give to the masses. The tipping point occurs when the masses of the corrupt, indigent, and lunatic left become the majority and the socialist dictator gets elected on his promises to change things. Hitler's Nationalist Socialists and Lenin's Communists did indeed change things and millions of Germans and Russians were murdered because they opposed the changes. Sadam Hussein loved to throw protestors off rooftops and to dissolve his enemies in vats of acid. Sadam did not trust the military and created a "new army," his own Personal Guard with power over the Iraqi military. Obama is the name of the flying beast that they say brought Mohammed to Jerusalem when Mohammed died. Hussein Obama, Jimmy Carter, the DNC, and the ELCA seem intent on turning Israel over to the Hamas organization.
Mr. Stupid said there were no 10% corrections in previous bull markets and this market will go straight up. Kudlow thanked him and said he agreed with him and "this was a "V" shaped recovery." That is GE/MSNBC/Pavda the voice of socialism speaking of course.
In truth though… corrections are seldom more than a 50% loss of the previous market gain and the average historical run up occurs four times a year. Since the average stock market yearly gain has been less than 10% per year that makes an average four mini cycle gains about 5% each followed by a 2.5% corrections for a total of four 2.5% net advances per year. So yes, 10% corrections are very rare. They occur when there are rallies that are greater than 20%. A 50% correction of a 20% rally would be ten percent. When a 50% correction does not occur immediately there is usually a massive correction later. We have had two 5% market corrections this year and that is very small considering the 40% advance thus far. China had an 80% advance and only a 20% correction thus far. These types of quarterly bubble run-ups are usually followed up with a major correction a year later. Longer term annual run-ups are usually followed by the major bear market corrections we see every four to six years.
The stock market advances we are seeing right now are unsustainable bubbles.
We need to remember that FDR and Obama inherited recessions and then imposed socialist programs that caused the first "Great Depression" and Obama is still working hard at causing the second "Great Depression." In the first "Great Depression there was also a 50% DJI rally the first year followed by a decline that bottomed the second year wiping out the entire first rally of that depression. It is clear that the rally we are in right now is a bubble and it is dangerous because some think socialist nationalization and taxation may actually help the economy. We could have a second "Great Depression" thanks to Obama.
Cuba is an excellent example of socialist central planning and socialist equality of poverty. The United States has been the engine of free enterprise innovation and competition that has kept our own socialist allies from becoming like Cuba and the other socialist states that resist American innovation and the American culture of generosity and free enterprise. The nations that hate our American culture universally live in poverty. China is rising now because President Nixon and Kissinger opened Red China up to the American culture of generosity and free enterprise. Japan has declined because they decided to reject American creative destruction of old technologies and jobs and instead went the route of socialist guaranteed life employment just when they were starting to catch up with America in the mid 1980's.
Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid on GE/MSNBC/Pavda think the people with $3 Trillion in money market funds will now buy stocks and will sustain the stock market rally because the stock market bubble is so attractive. But Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid do not realize how stupid that idea is. The money markets, treasury bonds, and corporate bonds are what finance almost everything. Equities are used mostly for capital formation of new business and products. The recession has killed the initial public stock offering (IPO) business that is the primary purpose for having a stock market. Mr. Kudlow and Mr. Stupid are mistaken in thinking that the purpose of the stock market is the creation of stock market bubbles just as Obama was mistaken in thinking the stock market was just an economic indicator.
A congressman on Kudlow's show went on to explain that Obama is not engaged in protectionism of America's tire industry because first of all our trade agreement allows protectionism, and secondly because we are actually just protecting Japan that makes 95% of American tires. He is one of many "Mr. Stupids" that Mr. Kudlow loves to listen to.
Market Outlook
A falling dollar and a China trade war now loom in the early stages. The stock market continues to bubble upward. The Wall Street risk appetite is high and a record number of rank amateurs are now betting with and against the market with puts and calls and now the "day traders" are back like they were in 2000 at the height of that bubble.
We expect relatively good housing and economic news because GE/MSNBC/Pavda continue to miss-inform. For instance if sales dropped 5% last September and actually declined 4% again this September they report sales improved 1% this September. Most people will not grasp that things actually got 4% worse again and only the slope of the decline is 1% less than last year.
A sharp market decline is now possible at any time because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Buying opportunities occur when a sector is rotated out of hedge fund popularity.
Asian markets were up last night, China up 2%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, Japan up 1.7%, and India up 0.3%.
European markets are currently up from 0.3% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 7:00 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market bubble is dangerous. The market PE is now higher than last year before the steep decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. But markets have been known to bubble up irrationally for years. An irrationally high PE does not mean a correction will happen anytime soon. It means it is time to diversify out of stocks or be prepared to exit fast. Jim Cramer reminded people that "pigs get slaughtered."
Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation still takes several years.
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal and eventually to murder. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. The worker/producers then become the slaves of the tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp to die. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all famous democratically elected socialist dictators. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an indigent/corrupt/maniacal majority. Socialism grows by taking from a few to give to the masses. The tipping point occurs when the masses of the corrupt, indigent, and lunatic left become the majority and the socialist dictator gets elected on his promises to change things. Hitler's Nationalist Socialists and Lenin's Communists did indeed change things and millions of Germans and Russians were murdered because they opposed the changes. Sadam Hussein loved to throw protestors off rooftops and to dissolve his enemies in vats of acid. Sadam did not trust the military and created a "new army," his own Personal Guard with power over the Iraqi military. Obama is the name of the flying beast that they say brought Mohammed to Jerusalem when Mohammed died. Hussein Obama, Jimmy Carter, the DNC, and the ELCA seem intent on turning Israel over to the Hamas organization.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Washington Taxpayer Tea Party estimated at between 600,000 and 1million people
Opposition to Obama socialism grows. The Democrat party is beginning to split now because Obama's Indonesian friends have embarrassed Bill and Hillary Clinton with recent sexist questions. Former Clinton supporters are becoming more vocal now about the lunatic Acorn left and their embarrassing corruption. The US treasury is headed by a tax cheat and last week ACORN was caught encouraging child prostitution and tax evasion.
Market forces September 15
A falling dollar and China trade war now loom in the early stages. The stock market continues to creep along as if towards a cliff. The Wall Street risk appetite is high and a record number of rank amateurs are mow betting with and against the market with puts and calls.
Market Outlook
We expect relatively good housing news this week but believe that a double-dip recession is becoming more probable than a slow recovery.
A sharp market decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Asian markets were up slightly last night, China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, Japan up 0.2%, and India up 1.5%.
European markets are currently flat in a narrow range from -0.2% to 0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.1% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market's over optimism is a dangerous sign. The market PE is now higher than last year before the decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation takes several years. Robert Mugabe was a "community activist" before he became president of Zimbabwe. Under his redistribution of wealth he took a country that had food surpluses and made it into just another murdering starving socialist bankrupt tyranny.
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. The worker/producers then become the slaves of the tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all democratically elected. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an indigent/corrupt/maniacal tyranny.
Market forces September 15
A falling dollar and China trade war now loom in the early stages. The stock market continues to creep along as if towards a cliff. The Wall Street risk appetite is high and a record number of rank amateurs are mow betting with and against the market with puts and calls.
Market Outlook
We expect relatively good housing news this week but believe that a double-dip recession is becoming more probable than a slow recovery.
A sharp market decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Asian markets were up slightly last night, China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, Japan up 0.2%, and India up 1.5%.
European markets are currently flat in a narrow range from -0.2% to 0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are down -0.1% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market's over optimism is a dangerous sign. The market PE is now higher than last year before the decline because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation takes several years. Robert Mugabe was a "community activist" before he became president of Zimbabwe. Under his redistribution of wealth he took a country that had food surpluses and made it into just another murdering starving socialist bankrupt tyranny.
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal. Once the thieves have a majority… tyranny takes over. The worker/producers then become the slaves of the tyrants. If you protest your enslavement you go to the Gulag or concentration camp. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Robert Mugabe, and Sadam Hussein were all democratically elected. Sadam Hussein claimed a 99% majority in his last Iraqi election after gassing his countrymen. Democracy only works in a free society and a free society has free enterprise not redistribution of wealth to an indigent/corrupt/maniacal tyranny.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Under Obama, Senior Citizens to pay for wealth redistribution to ACORN social activists.
Breaking news:
Obama's favorite community activist group, ACORN, will get off the hook after apparently advising 'pimps' and 'prostitutes' on how to lie to the IRS and establish an illegal immigrant child prostitution home paid for with Obama wealth redistribution from "hard working" Americans. Yes, two low level ACORN volunteers were fired but there will be no investigation of the higher levels including the Obama Administration that allowed corruption and crime to be paid for by America's senior citizens and other "real" American workers. Obama is cutting senior citizens pensions to pay for his health plan for the folks who don't happen to share the "Old American" cultural work ethic and who get phony patronage work where they are paid for doing nothing useful or constructive for society. That is correct, not all cultures believe in hard work. If they can't harvest clams digging with their feet in a nice sunny tropical country then the next best thing is to have American senior citizens give them a home and a 50 inch plasma TV to watch NFL games the rest of their life in downtown sunny LA.
Senior citizens will get an Obama pension cut after paying in for 40 to 50 years. In the 1970's under Jimmy Carter, many senior pensioners who had worked hard all their lives were caught on camera buying dog food to supplement their meals because money was diverted from Social Security to people who were on welfare getting food stamps to buy their steaks. Obama will cut soldier's medical and pension benefits too because they are not apparently voting sufficiently socialist by ACORN's standards. Many in the military now qualify for food stamps and are discriminated against because they serve their country rather than prey on it.
The phony excuse is that energy prices declined this past year so the American retired workers should take a pay cut. Folks, when energy prices went up for three years the seniors did not get the increase because it was not classified as core inflation.
Socialism/communism/corruption is by definition poisonous to American liberty. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two Obama supporters vote to steal the honestly gained wealth of a senior citizen it is called socialist redistribution of wealth. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any theft. That is the socialist's definition of democracy. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute honestly gained wealth as corrupt patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he himself became a millionaire in one Senate term. Under socialism/communism, democracy is a license to steal from workers to sustain an unbeatable block of welfare voters.
Market forces September 14
The Census Bureau has just fired Obama's ACORN community activist group from the current USA census work force due to the growing fear that ACORN would continue fraudulent registrations of dead and fictitious people to expand corrupt welfare organizations and facilitate multiple fraudulent voting of corrupt Obama supporters.
Market Outlook
A sharp market decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Asian markets were down last night, China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -2.3%, and India down -0.3%.
European markets are currently down in a narrow range from -0.7% to -1% this morning about half way through their day. CNN and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA are supporters of Obama's wealth redistribution policies and are receivers of the wealth redistribution. They are the new socialist propaganda machines.
US market futures are down -0.6% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market's over optimism is a dangerous sign. The market PE is now higher than last year because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation takes several years. Robert Mugabe was just another "community activist" before he became president of Zimbabwe. Under his redistribution of wealth and land he took a country that had food surpluses and made it into just another murdering starving socialist bankrupt tyranny.
Obama's favorite community activist group, ACORN, will get off the hook after apparently advising 'pimps' and 'prostitutes' on how to lie to the IRS and establish an illegal immigrant child prostitution home paid for with Obama wealth redistribution from "hard working" Americans. Yes, two low level ACORN volunteers were fired but there will be no investigation of the higher levels including the Obama Administration that allowed corruption and crime to be paid for by America's senior citizens and other "real" American workers. Obama is cutting senior citizens pensions to pay for his health plan for the folks who don't happen to share the "Old American" cultural work ethic and who get phony patronage work where they are paid for doing nothing useful or constructive for society. That is correct, not all cultures believe in hard work. If they can't harvest clams digging with their feet in a nice sunny tropical country then the next best thing is to have American senior citizens give them a home and a 50 inch plasma TV to watch NFL games the rest of their life in downtown sunny LA.
Senior citizens will get an Obama pension cut after paying in for 40 to 50 years. In the 1970's under Jimmy Carter, many senior pensioners who had worked hard all their lives were caught on camera buying dog food to supplement their meals because money was diverted from Social Security to people who were on welfare getting food stamps to buy their steaks. Obama will cut soldier's medical and pension benefits too because they are not apparently voting sufficiently socialist by ACORN's standards. Many in the military now qualify for food stamps and are discriminated against because they serve their country rather than prey on it.
The phony excuse is that energy prices declined this past year so the American retired workers should take a pay cut. Folks, when energy prices went up for three years the seniors did not get the increase because it was not classified as core inflation.
Socialism/communism/corruption is by definition poisonous to American liberty. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two Obama supporters vote to steal the honestly gained wealth of a senior citizen it is called socialist redistribution of wealth. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any theft. That is the socialist's definition of democracy. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute honestly gained wealth as corrupt patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he himself became a millionaire in one Senate term. Under socialism/communism, democracy is a license to steal from workers to sustain an unbeatable block of welfare voters.
Market forces September 14
The Census Bureau has just fired Obama's ACORN community activist group from the current USA census work force due to the growing fear that ACORN would continue fraudulent registrations of dead and fictitious people to expand corrupt welfare organizations and facilitate multiple fraudulent voting of corrupt Obama supporters.
Market Outlook
A sharp market decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Asian markets were down last night, China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -2.3%, and India down -0.3%.
European markets are currently down in a narrow range from -0.7% to -1% this morning about half way through their day. CNN and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA are supporters of Obama's wealth redistribution policies and are receivers of the wealth redistribution. They are the new socialist propaganda machines.
US market futures are down -0.6% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market's over optimism is a dangerous sign. The market PE is now higher than last year because stock prices have been recovering even as earnings have been declining all year. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history. Debt is unrelenting but the process of bankrupting a nation takes several years. Robert Mugabe was just another "community activist" before he became president of Zimbabwe. Under his redistribution of wealth and land he took a country that had food surpluses and made it into just another murdering starving socialist bankrupt tyranny.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Markets at peak once again, not very wise to be buying now.
Yesterday the funds rolled through the industrials sector making it impossible for small investors to get in before 3% to 6% spikes in individual sector stock gains that in turn drove the market as a whole up about 0.5%. All our indicators finally say sell.. to take profits and stop buying now.
We may be censored and taken off this blog any time for our anti socialist/ fascist /communist and pro liberty and free enterprise leanings. Then again maybe they won't carry out their threats.
Market forces September 10
Everything the press says about the economy is positive… even golden. GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA/Sycophants are happy as larks saying all is well in the Obama free-lunch society. Big Brother Obama loaned us his credit card and we are all having a great time now running up the charges. Let the money presses roll and lets grove and have a party now. Big brother Obama says its fine; someone else will come along and pick up the tab. We have killed the last elephant and we need to feast now before the carcass of our free economy rots. We are all socialist hunter gathers now. We don't need to work. Nature provides everything and we just need to pick the fruits of the last nation on earth that was known to stand for liberty, work ethic, freedom from tyranny, and free enterprise with the market rewarding the most productive.
Now we will have big brother like the Nationalist Socialist Stazzi, or the Communist KGB looking closely over our shoulders making sure that workers don't hold back any of their honestly earned income from the government hacks, sycophants, and religious and environmental zealots. They want to purge the world of the dangerous ideas of Thomas Jefferson and the others that created a free America. The Saudi and the rest of the Moslem world are welfare states where young people have no hope and so they turn to terrorism and suicide attacks against the last nation, America, which until now chose not to be a welfare state.
If big brother Obama succeeds with socialism we will indeed have the Second Great Depression because his profligate spending will redistribute the nation's wealth from the producers to the government, the political sycophants, the illegal aliens, and all those whose culture is that of the early hunter gatherer… don't work, be happy, take the fruits of others and don't worry about it. The first Great Depression did not end until the FDR socialist government stopped trying to run the economy and gave America back to the producers.
The Census Bureau’s annual report on incomes, poverty and health insurance is due for release around 10 a.m. in Washington. It is expected to say American poverty has deepened. Foreclosure filings in the U.S. exceeded 300,000 for the sixth straight month as job losses that boosted the unemployment rate to a 26-year high left many homeowners unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.
Market Outlook
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is now valued more expensively than it has in five years.
The low interest rates we enjoy now under free enterprise will make it worse later because it is spoiling the political sycophants today. American debt will become unrelenting because as it gets worse, America's credit rating declines and therefore the interest rate on American debt increases. When the interest rate rises from 0.3% to 0.9% the debt burden triples. When it rises from 0.3% to 6% the debt burden is twenty times as great. That is when hyperinflation comes into play and wipes out the value of everything. In Germany that is when a few people bought control of the economy and socialism turned into National Socialist tyranny killing 20 million of their own citizens who disagreed with the socialists (not counting the WWII dead). In Russia, that is when the Communists took over the banks and killed 80 million of their own citizens who disagreed with the socialists.
Socialism by definition is corruption. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two people vote to steal the honestly gained wealth of a third person it is called socialism. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any crime. That is the socialist's definition of democracy. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute honestly gained wealth as corrupt patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he himself became a millionaire in one term.
Asian markets were up last night, China down - 0.7%, Hong Kong up 1%, Japan up 2%, and India up 0.2%.
European markets are currently down in a narrow range from 0.1% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly lower by about -0.2% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market optimism is a dangerous sign. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda considers Red Chinese stocks to be the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create honest value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Remember:
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal. Once the thieves have a majority tyranny takes control.
We may be censored and taken off this blog any time for our anti socialist/ fascist /communist and pro liberty and free enterprise leanings. Then again maybe they won't carry out their threats.
Market forces September 10
Everything the press says about the economy is positive… even golden. GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA/Sycophants are happy as larks saying all is well in the Obama free-lunch society. Big Brother Obama loaned us his credit card and we are all having a great time now running up the charges. Let the money presses roll and lets grove and have a party now. Big brother Obama says its fine; someone else will come along and pick up the tab. We have killed the last elephant and we need to feast now before the carcass of our free economy rots. We are all socialist hunter gathers now. We don't need to work. Nature provides everything and we just need to pick the fruits of the last nation on earth that was known to stand for liberty, work ethic, freedom from tyranny, and free enterprise with the market rewarding the most productive.
Now we will have big brother like the Nationalist Socialist Stazzi, or the Communist KGB looking closely over our shoulders making sure that workers don't hold back any of their honestly earned income from the government hacks, sycophants, and religious and environmental zealots. They want to purge the world of the dangerous ideas of Thomas Jefferson and the others that created a free America. The Saudi and the rest of the Moslem world are welfare states where young people have no hope and so they turn to terrorism and suicide attacks against the last nation, America, which until now chose not to be a welfare state.
If big brother Obama succeeds with socialism we will indeed have the Second Great Depression because his profligate spending will redistribute the nation's wealth from the producers to the government, the political sycophants, the illegal aliens, and all those whose culture is that of the early hunter gatherer… don't work, be happy, take the fruits of others and don't worry about it. The first Great Depression did not end until the FDR socialist government stopped trying to run the economy and gave America back to the producers.
The Census Bureau’s annual report on incomes, poverty and health insurance is due for release around 10 a.m. in Washington. It is expected to say American poverty has deepened. Foreclosure filings in the U.S. exceeded 300,000 for the sixth straight month as job losses that boosted the unemployment rate to a 26-year high left many homeowners unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.
Market Outlook
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is now valued more expensively than it has in five years.
The low interest rates we enjoy now under free enterprise will make it worse later because it is spoiling the political sycophants today. American debt will become unrelenting because as it gets worse, America's credit rating declines and therefore the interest rate on American debt increases. When the interest rate rises from 0.3% to 0.9% the debt burden triples. When it rises from 0.3% to 6% the debt burden is twenty times as great. That is when hyperinflation comes into play and wipes out the value of everything. In Germany that is when a few people bought control of the economy and socialism turned into National Socialist tyranny killing 20 million of their own citizens who disagreed with the socialists (not counting the WWII dead). In Russia, that is when the Communists took over the banks and killed 80 million of their own citizens who disagreed with the socialists.
Socialism by definition is corruption. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two people vote to steal the honestly gained wealth of a third person it is called socialism. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any crime. That is the socialist's definition of democracy. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute honestly gained wealth as corrupt patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he himself became a millionaire in one term.
Asian markets were up last night, China down - 0.7%, Hong Kong up 1%, Japan up 2%, and India up 0.2%.
European markets are currently down in a narrow range from 0.1% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly lower by about -0.2% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The current market optimism is a dangerous sign. Our indicators say the market has topped again. Tax and spend socialists now run Congress and will likely bankrupt America for the first time in our history.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda considers Red Chinese stocks to be the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create honest value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take recent profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Remember:
Under socialism, democracy is just a license to steal. Once the thieves have a majority tyranny takes control.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Dollar hits a new low, one Euro =$1.45
The consumer credit report is an indicator of spending by Americans. Consumer spending makes up 70% of gross domestic product, which is the broad measure of U.S. economic activity. People, afraid of unemployment and stuck under high household debt, aren't spending and hold the economy in a slump prevent a quick recovery. Americans reduced their borrowing a sixth consecutive month during July in a bad omen for any easy economic turnaround.
Consumer credit outstanding tumbled $21.6-billion to $2.472 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -10.4%, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. The drop in borrowing was a record.
Wall Street had projected a $3.5 billion not a $21.6-billion decline in consumer credit during July. Borrowing in June already fell $15.5 billion. The last time credit fell six straight months was in the second half of 1991.
The Fed said revolving credit, which includes credit card use, dropped in July by $6.1 billion to $905.6 billion, or down 8.1%. Nonrevolving credit, including automobile and mobile home loans, decreased by 11.7%, or a record $15.4 billion to $1.566 trillion.
Market forces September 9
According to Real Estate Econometrics, the default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks will rise to 5.4 percent as banks anticipate more losses amid falling rents, LLC.
The greatest market force at the present moment emanates from the suspense of seeing inflation and the collapse of the American dollar. A feeble market over just the next two days would have all our timing indices shouting sell.
A shaky equities market propelled the dollars plunge after a Chinese official said Obama's deficit spending was dangerous and that China was replacing some $Dollar reserves with gold reserves.
Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. Gold futures broke above the psychological $1,000 an ounce mark, as a sharp decline in the dollar and an oil rally boosted the metal's appeal as a hedge against the depreciating U.S. currency as well as rising inflation. The U.S. dollar to its lowest level.
Crude oil surged more than $3 to above $71 a barrel on dollar weakness and optimism about recovering global demand.
Silver futures recently have outperformed gold, helped by better economic sentiment. Usually less-liquid silver has the characteristics of both precious and industrial metals.
Market Outlook
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index left the measure valued near the most expensive level in five years.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda admitted that it has a close relationship to the corrupt Obama administration. Yesterday FOX reported that MSNBC employees were told about their dependency on the "GREEN" contracts promised by Obama for MSNBC support over the last year. It confirms that the timing and stock advice of MAD or FAST Money are worthless. Socialism by definition is corruption. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two people vote to steal from a third person it is called socialism. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any crime. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute as patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he became a millionaire in one term.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -1%, Japan down -0.8%, and India up 0.4%.
European markets are currently up in a narrow range from 0.2% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly lower by about -0.1% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda considers Red Chinese stocks to be the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Consumer credit outstanding tumbled $21.6-billion to $2.472 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -10.4%, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. The drop in borrowing was a record.
Wall Street had projected a $3.5 billion not a $21.6-billion decline in consumer credit during July. Borrowing in June already fell $15.5 billion. The last time credit fell six straight months was in the second half of 1991.
The Fed said revolving credit, which includes credit card use, dropped in July by $6.1 billion to $905.6 billion, or down 8.1%. Nonrevolving credit, including automobile and mobile home loans, decreased by 11.7%, or a record $15.4 billion to $1.566 trillion.
Market forces September 9
According to Real Estate Econometrics, the default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks will rise to 5.4 percent as banks anticipate more losses amid falling rents, LLC.
The greatest market force at the present moment emanates from the suspense of seeing inflation and the collapse of the American dollar. A feeble market over just the next two days would have all our timing indices shouting sell.
A shaky equities market propelled the dollars plunge after a Chinese official said Obama's deficit spending was dangerous and that China was replacing some $Dollar reserves with gold reserves.
Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. Gold futures broke above the psychological $1,000 an ounce mark, as a sharp decline in the dollar and an oil rally boosted the metal's appeal as a hedge against the depreciating U.S. currency as well as rising inflation. The U.S. dollar to its lowest level.
Crude oil surged more than $3 to above $71 a barrel on dollar weakness and optimism about recovering global demand.
Silver futures recently have outperformed gold, helped by better economic sentiment. Usually less-liquid silver has the characteristics of both precious and industrial metals.
Market Outlook
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index left the measure valued near the most expensive level in five years.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda admitted that it has a close relationship to the corrupt Obama administration. Yesterday FOX reported that MSNBC employees were told about their dependency on the "GREEN" contracts promised by Obama for MSNBC support over the last year. It confirms that the timing and stock advice of MAD or FAST Money are worthless. Socialism by definition is corruption. When one person steals from another it is a crime. When two people vote to steal from a third person it is called socialism. Under socialism a consensus is all that is needed to commit any crime. Even the US constitutional liberties could be retracted by a socialist majority voting to steal from hard workers to redistribute as patronage payoffs for political support of corrupt socialists. Look at all the ignorant spendthrift Socialists in Congress who started with nothing and became millionaires over night. Even Obama's wife got more than a 100% pay raise when he got in the senate and he became a millionaire in one term.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -1%, Japan down -0.8%, and India up 0.4%.
European markets are currently up in a narrow range from 0.2% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly lower by about -0.1% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
GE/MSNBC/Pravda considers Red Chinese stocks to be the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Volume fell another 11% on Friday as stock prices rose 1%… indicating more selling likely
Market forces September 8
Recent high volume market declines and low volume advances have driven our Market Cash Flow Index to the first sell signal position since its March 23 buy signal. That is a significant event as the MACD has also confirmed a bear market is coming. The Re-spiral (special parabolic SAR) is now within three days of confirming a bear market.
On the other hand, if Obama announces this week that he is withdrawing "socialized medicine" and keeping America's current health system and introducing tort reform to reduce costs, then that alone could cause an economic rally. While remote it is possible. After all Obama’s avowed Communist “Green” advisor, Van Jones, just resigned this past weekend. That is a good sign that anything is possible.
But Obama did try to have his Re-education people get the schools to have a day of “Praise our mighty Indonesian leader” chanting this week and the vast majority of Americans seem about ready to stage a major “tea party”. It seems evidence is mounting again that Obama is not a legal (Constitutionally) citizen of the USA. It seems he got into his American university with money from a program for aspiring foreign Indonesian students. But then possibly Obama is American and was only trying to scam the system like Senator Rangel does year to year.
Oil continues to decline contradicting the surge in Gold up to its previous high. That means it is not a weak dollar but rather fear that is driving up gold prices. GE/MSNBC/Pravda seemed to be leading the gold surge Thursday expressing fear about a possible 20% stock market decline but then on Friday completely reversed themselves again and seemingly took the position that the market has reached a permanent plateau from which it will grow and never return. Likewise Barrons said the market will creep upward the rest of this year. Not!! We think not!! And we think it is too early for gold to move much higher since the economic contraction is continuing. So far in 2009, stock prices rose 50% and earnings declined 30%.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda reached a new low Thursday and completely reversed on Friday proving once again that GE/MSNBC/Pravda is two faced and can lie and selectively pick their recommendations to claim any performance they wish to claim. It also means the timing and stock advice of MAD or FAST Money are worthless.
Market leadership is wavering. Now Oracle is being sued by the EU WTO and the leadership of the banks and real estate are weak. Also, the mergers in the soft candy industry are hitting the rocks. Buyouts are absolutely necessary for a bull market so that stimulus/TARP funds can further inflate the current stock market bubble and keep the bull market going. The next three days are crucial.
The FDIC announced that five more banks failed last week bringing the total for the year to 89. These five failures will cost the FDIC $401 million there are more than 400 more banks on the FDIC’s troubled-bank watch list at the moment. It is becoming more likely that an FDIC bail out will occur before the end of the year.
Asian markets were up last night, China up 2.1%, Japan up 0.7%, and India up 0.7%.
European markets are currently up in a narrow range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.8% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The Baltic index of world trade has been declining for over a month indicating that world trade is declining. The stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased on declines and decrease 30% over the two day end-of-the-week-rally last week. This stock market is now running on vapors. A feeble market over the next three days would have all our timing indices shouting sell.
Recent high volume market declines and low volume advances have driven our Market Cash Flow Index to the first sell signal position since its March 23 buy signal. That is a significant event as the MACD has also confirmed a bear market is coming. The Re-spiral (special parabolic SAR) is now within three days of confirming a bear market.
On the other hand, if Obama announces this week that he is withdrawing "socialized medicine" and keeping America's current health system and introducing tort reform to reduce costs, then that alone could cause an economic rally. While remote it is possible. After all Obama’s avowed Communist “Green” advisor, Van Jones, just resigned this past weekend. That is a good sign that anything is possible.
But Obama did try to have his Re-education people get the schools to have a day of “Praise our mighty Indonesian leader” chanting this week and the vast majority of Americans seem about ready to stage a major “tea party”. It seems evidence is mounting again that Obama is not a legal (Constitutionally) citizen of the USA. It seems he got into his American university with money from a program for aspiring foreign Indonesian students. But then possibly Obama is American and was only trying to scam the system like Senator Rangel does year to year.
Oil continues to decline contradicting the surge in Gold up to its previous high. That means it is not a weak dollar but rather fear that is driving up gold prices. GE/MSNBC/Pravda seemed to be leading the gold surge Thursday expressing fear about a possible 20% stock market decline but then on Friday completely reversed themselves again and seemingly took the position that the market has reached a permanent plateau from which it will grow and never return. Likewise Barrons said the market will creep upward the rest of this year. Not!! We think not!! And we think it is too early for gold to move much higher since the economic contraction is continuing. So far in 2009, stock prices rose 50% and earnings declined 30%.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda reached a new low Thursday and completely reversed on Friday proving once again that GE/MSNBC/Pravda is two faced and can lie and selectively pick their recommendations to claim any performance they wish to claim. It also means the timing and stock advice of MAD or FAST Money are worthless.
Market leadership is wavering. Now Oracle is being sued by the EU WTO and the leadership of the banks and real estate are weak. Also, the mergers in the soft candy industry are hitting the rocks. Buyouts are absolutely necessary for a bull market so that stimulus/TARP funds can further inflate the current stock market bubble and keep the bull market going. The next three days are crucial.
The FDIC announced that five more banks failed last week bringing the total for the year to 89. These five failures will cost the FDIC $401 million there are more than 400 more banks on the FDIC’s troubled-bank watch list at the moment. It is becoming more likely that an FDIC bail out will occur before the end of the year.
Asian markets were up last night, China up 2.1%, Japan up 0.7%, and India up 0.7%.
European markets are currently up in a narrow range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.8% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The Baltic index of world trade has been declining for over a month indicating that world trade is declining. The stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them the leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Communist Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent well while heavily taxing the people who create value. A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased on declines and decrease 30% over the two day end-of-the-week-rally last week. This stock market is now running on vapors. A feeble market over the next three days would have all our timing indices shouting sell.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Volume fell 21% as stock prices rose indicating selling pressure mounting
Market forces September 4
Recent high volume market declines and low volume advances have driven our Market Cash Flow Index very close to the first sell signal since its March buy signal. That will be a significant event if it occurs in the next few days. On the other hand, if Obama announces next week that he is withdrawing "socialized medicine" and keeping America's current system and introducing tort reform to reduce costs, then that alone could cause a rally. If the market continues to decline, the Re-spiral indicator is within four days of confirming the MACD sell signal.
Oil dropped under $70 per barrel as we predicted but a sudden incorrectly perceived weakness of the dollar has catapulted Gold to earlier highs. GE/MSNBC/Pravda seems to be unstable and are leading the gold surge while expressing fear about a possible 20% stock market decline this month. That is very unusual for them. They seem to be slowly turning against this socialist administration.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda has reached a new high and it is fun to watch because they are so extreme (and unstable) while Fox and Bloomberg Business News are so stable. The four 50% run-up was caused by all the brutal short covering of hedge fund shorts.
Market leadership is wavering. Now Oracle is being sued by the EU WTO and the leadership of the banks and real estate are weak.
Jim Cramer now defends the fact that his "long term" investment advice changes about once a month. Once a month is par with long term investing for Jim. His intermediate investment advice probably changes by the end of his show.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 0.6%, Japan down -0.3%, and India up 1.9%.
European markets are currently up in a range from 0.6% to +1.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.3% at 8:30 AM EST before the opening today.
After an 80% run-up, the stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well. Aside from pet food that kills and building materials that poison people and corrode electrical wiring in new homes, communist China distorts the world economy by maintaining an underpaid slave society so that the government bureaucrats can live in high style like their ancient emperor's. They trade human health and slave labor for a budget surplus.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was down about 2.2% this week. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased on declines and the FED should have more difficulty now supporting the stock market if the -3% sell triggers are hit.
Recent high volume market declines and low volume advances have driven our Market Cash Flow Index very close to the first sell signal since its March buy signal. That will be a significant event if it occurs in the next few days. On the other hand, if Obama announces next week that he is withdrawing "socialized medicine" and keeping America's current system and introducing tort reform to reduce costs, then that alone could cause a rally. If the market continues to decline, the Re-spiral indicator is within four days of confirming the MACD sell signal.
Oil dropped under $70 per barrel as we predicted but a sudden incorrectly perceived weakness of the dollar has catapulted Gold to earlier highs. GE/MSNBC/Pravda seems to be unstable and are leading the gold surge while expressing fear about a possible 20% stock market decline this month. That is very unusual for them. They seem to be slowly turning against this socialist administration.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda has reached a new high and it is fun to watch because they are so extreme (and unstable) while Fox and Bloomberg Business News are so stable. The four 50% run-up was caused by all the brutal short covering of hedge fund shorts.
Market leadership is wavering. Now Oracle is being sued by the EU WTO and the leadership of the banks and real estate are weak.
Jim Cramer now defends the fact that his "long term" investment advice changes about once a month. Once a month is par with long term investing for Jim. His intermediate investment advice probably changes by the end of his show.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 0.6%, Japan down -0.3%, and India up 1.9%.
European markets are currently up in a range from 0.6% to +1.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.3% at 8:30 AM EST before the opening today.
After an 80% run-up, the stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with the Chinese socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well. Aside from pet food that kills and building materials that poison people and corrode electrical wiring in new homes, communist China distorts the world economy by maintaining an underpaid slave society so that the government bureaucrats can live in high style like their ancient emperor's. They trade human health and slave labor for a budget surplus.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was down about 2.2% this week. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased on declines and the FED should have more difficulty now supporting the stock market if the -3% sell triggers are hit.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
BP strikes more oil in the Gulf than the North Sea reserves
Market forces September 3
The largest field yet discovered is six miles underground and opens the possibility of much more oil than ever imagined at these new depths. BP to bring the new oil on line in ten years.
Jim Cramer's natural gas play has taken a beating as Obama Administration moves far too slowly on alternative energy development.
Obama's foreign policy begins to unravel. Obama to open diplomatic relations with extremist Syria just as Iraq blames Syria for harboring terrorists. Afghan troops have been doubled under Obama but he may have to triple them as Obama creates confusion with his attempts to warm up relationship with radical socialist dictatorships in the mid east. Mid East nations are uniformly socialist welfare states run by corrupt medieval tribal families. Radical Islam is the major terrorist product under the hopelessness of the dark ages of mid eastern socialism.
International fear of destroying American free enterprise with socialism is now greater than world fear of deflation. It is driving gold prices higher.
The socialists in Europe want to put an end to free enterprise competition by suing companies that merge. Oracle Corp. faces an extended European Union antitrust probe into its plan to buy Sun Microsystems Inc. for about $7.4 billion after the EU regulator cited “serious doubts” about the market for databases. What do EU regulators need to know other than their mandate to suppress innovation and maintain the dark ages of socialist oligarchies of the corrupt who become rich from wielding power.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda has reached a new high. The run up in stock prices was caused by hedge funds that should not have stopped shorting the stocks after they fell 75%. What were they thinking? Did they expect the prices to all go to zero? The run-up was caused by all the brutal short covering of those short hedge funds.
Now the leadership of the banks is weak, as it is evident that toxic assets have still not been addressed. The leadership of real estate is weak as lawsuits pile up from defective communist Chinese sheet rock used 100,000 newer houses of TOL and HOV. Jim Cramer now even has nothing good to say about Wall Mart and the defensive cyclical strategy.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 4.8%, Japan down -0.6%, and India down -0.5%.
European markets are currently flat in a range from -0.2% to +0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.2% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with their socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well. Aside from pet food that kills and building materials that poison and corrode electrical wiring in new homes, communist China distorts the world economy by maintaining an underpaid slave society so that the government communist bureaucrats can live in high style like their ancient emperor's. They may not be paid much but they are provided all their luxuries free of charge.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was already down 2.5% this week. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased and the FED should have more difficulty now supporting the stock market.
The largest field yet discovered is six miles underground and opens the possibility of much more oil than ever imagined at these new depths. BP to bring the new oil on line in ten years.
Jim Cramer's natural gas play has taken a beating as Obama Administration moves far too slowly on alternative energy development.
Obama's foreign policy begins to unravel. Obama to open diplomatic relations with extremist Syria just as Iraq blames Syria for harboring terrorists. Afghan troops have been doubled under Obama but he may have to triple them as Obama creates confusion with his attempts to warm up relationship with radical socialist dictatorships in the mid east. Mid East nations are uniformly socialist welfare states run by corrupt medieval tribal families. Radical Islam is the major terrorist product under the hopelessness of the dark ages of mid eastern socialism.
International fear of destroying American free enterprise with socialism is now greater than world fear of deflation. It is driving gold prices higher.
The socialists in Europe want to put an end to free enterprise competition by suing companies that merge. Oracle Corp. faces an extended European Union antitrust probe into its plan to buy Sun Microsystems Inc. for about $7.4 billion after the EU regulator cited “serious doubts” about the market for databases. What do EU regulators need to know other than their mandate to suppress innovation and maintain the dark ages of socialist oligarchies of the corrupt who become rich from wielding power.
Market Outlook
Business pessimism at GE/MSNBC/Pravda has reached a new high. The run up in stock prices was caused by hedge funds that should not have stopped shorting the stocks after they fell 75%. What were they thinking? Did they expect the prices to all go to zero? The run-up was caused by all the brutal short covering of those short hedge funds.
Now the leadership of the banks is weak, as it is evident that toxic assets have still not been addressed. The leadership of real estate is weak as lawsuits pile up from defective communist Chinese sheet rock used 100,000 newer houses of TOL and HOV. Jim Cramer now even has nothing good to say about Wall Mart and the defensive cyclical strategy.
Asian markets were mixed last night, China up 4.8%, Japan down -0.6%, and India down -0.5%.
European markets are currently flat in a range from -0.2% to +0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are slightly higher by about 0.2% at 7:30 AM EST before the opening today.
The stocks of communist China have dropped over 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer and GE/MSNBC/Pravda considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that corruption and fraud could be expected to run rampant with their socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well. Aside from pet food that kills and building materials that poison and corrode electrical wiring in new homes, communist China distorts the world economy by maintaining an underpaid slave society so that the government communist bureaucrats can live in high style like their ancient emperor's. They may not be paid much but they are provided all their luxuries free of charge.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was already down 2.5% this week. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased and the FED should have more difficulty now supporting the stock market.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Under socialism, banks give incentives for incompetence.
A recent study shows top pay at tarp banks exceeds average for S&P 500 executives, thus proving that under socialism, banks pay higher for incompetence.
Since continued deflation is the expectation, gold and oil are expected to soon fall sharply with the rest of the market.
Market forces September 2
Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley both got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery. Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC, and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand saying that record government spending are only delaying a market selloff. Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March. Yesterday our market cash flow index plunged as selling volume picked up. It had been bullish since January 31 and now is within a week away of possibly returning to a bear market signal. The volume increased another 30% yesterday as the market declined indicating that the market makers are now losing the control they enjoyed in recent weeks when price movements appeared to be orchestrated. The Re-spiral index is saying take profits for it is within six days of confirming a sell signal and saying "you are too late getting out." When both the MACD and Re-spiral say sell the best opportunities to sell are usually gone and you should hang on to your hat for a while until a buy signal occurs.
“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” said Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”
Tudor, a Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm recently told clients that the stock market’s climb was a “bear-market rally. Weak growth in consumer income and unemployment were among the reasons to question the bear rally's chances of survival.
GDP shrank 4 percent in the second half of 2008, 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and just 1 percent in the second quarter of 2009. But stagnant high unemployment limits any potential growth. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, and housing prices continued to fall according to the National Association of Realtors. Yesterday the US Treasury warned that toxic commercial real estate was the next major problem banks would face.
“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period.”
Brevan Howard, Europe’s largest hedge-fund manager with $24 billion in assets, told clients the U.S. would likely stumble again when stimulus spending fades after this current quarter.
Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said. “We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.”
Market Outlook
Pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s inadequate response to the financial crisis, which continues to fail to address its root cause, that banks still hold toxic assets on their balance sheets that squeeze their liquidity and the money supply for smaller innovative businesses which are America's engine of growth.
Horseman, with $4.1 billion under management out of London, is investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The firm believes interest rates will stay low for longer than the market expects. “Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe to avoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they are losing the battle.”
Falling stock prices and deflation will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades. That will cause precious metals and oil to fall in price also. Therefore this market decline will be broad and fairly deep sparing few if any equities.
We hope you took your recent spectacular short term profits and have cash set aside. It is time to be cautious on the sidelines with a bundle of cash. Even GE/MSNBC/Pravda is expecting a 10% to 20% decline in the near future. We expect it will be over within two months.
Asian markets were down last night, China down -1.8%, Japan down -2.4%, India down -0.4%, and Hong Kong down -1.8%.
European markets are currently down in a range from -0.1% to -2% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 8 AM EST before the opening today.
The stocks of communist China have dropped about 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that fraud could be expected to run rampant in their socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was already down 2% yesterday. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased and the FED will have more difficulty now supporting the stock marked as Greenspan did especially at the time of the 1986, 25% US market panic.
Since continued deflation is the expectation, gold and oil are expected to soon fall sharply with the rest of the market.
Market forces September 2
Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley both got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery. Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC, and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand saying that record government spending are only delaying a market selloff. Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March. Yesterday our market cash flow index plunged as selling volume picked up. It had been bullish since January 31 and now is within a week away of possibly returning to a bear market signal. The volume increased another 30% yesterday as the market declined indicating that the market makers are now losing the control they enjoyed in recent weeks when price movements appeared to be orchestrated. The Re-spiral index is saying take profits for it is within six days of confirming a sell signal and saying "you are too late getting out." When both the MACD and Re-spiral say sell the best opportunities to sell are usually gone and you should hang on to your hat for a while until a buy signal occurs.
“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” said Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”
Tudor, a Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm recently told clients that the stock market’s climb was a “bear-market rally. Weak growth in consumer income and unemployment were among the reasons to question the bear rally's chances of survival.
GDP shrank 4 percent in the second half of 2008, 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and just 1 percent in the second quarter of 2009. But stagnant high unemployment limits any potential growth. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, and housing prices continued to fall according to the National Association of Realtors. Yesterday the US Treasury warned that toxic commercial real estate was the next major problem banks would face.
“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period.”
Brevan Howard, Europe’s largest hedge-fund manager with $24 billion in assets, told clients the U.S. would likely stumble again when stimulus spending fades after this current quarter.
Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said. “We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.”
Market Outlook
Pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s inadequate response to the financial crisis, which continues to fail to address its root cause, that banks still hold toxic assets on their balance sheets that squeeze their liquidity and the money supply for smaller innovative businesses which are America's engine of growth.
Horseman, with $4.1 billion under management out of London, is investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The firm believes interest rates will stay low for longer than the market expects. “Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe to avoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they are losing the battle.”
Falling stock prices and deflation will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades. That will cause precious metals and oil to fall in price also. Therefore this market decline will be broad and fairly deep sparing few if any equities.
We hope you took your recent spectacular short term profits and have cash set aside. It is time to be cautious on the sidelines with a bundle of cash. Even GE/MSNBC/Pravda is expecting a 10% to 20% decline in the near future. We expect it will be over within two months.
Asian markets were down last night, China down -1.8%, Japan down -2.4%, India down -0.4%, and Hong Kong down -1.8%.
European markets are currently down in a range from -0.1% to -2% this morning about half way through their day.
US market futures are flat at 8 AM EST before the opening today.
The stocks of communist China have dropped about 25% in the past month and Jim Cramer considered them a leading indicator for the economic recovery in the world. We warned that fraud could be expected to run rampant in their socialist experiment unleashing free enterprise. Socialism pays the indolent and incompetent and heavily taxes the people who try and do well.
A sharp decline is now possible because many leveraged funds are fully invested, have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%, and the market was already down 2% yesterday. The market makers are doing their best to avoid triggering the selling by keeping the daily declines small. Our strategy now is to continue to take profits and wait for future buying opportunities. Market volume has increased and the FED will have more difficulty now supporting the stock marked as Greenspan did especially at the time of the 1986, 25% US market panic.
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