Boltonct Commentary

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

Copper fell in London, showing the biggest monthly decline since May 2012, on further signs demand has yet to revive as stockpiles of the metal increase. Low copper production usually means lower silver supply because silver production is now primarily a by product of silver production.

Herbalife logged a profit of $1.27 a share, easily besting estimates of $1.07. Herbalife hasn’t missed EPS estimates since the fourth quarter of 2008. The nutrition marketing company earned $118.86 million, or $1.10 a share, last quarter, compared with $108.16 million, or 88 cents a share, a year earlier.

Guenter Schiffmann/Bloomberg. Daimler AG, the world's third-largest maker of luxury vehicles, last week cut its 2013 profit forecast after first- quarter earnings tumbled

Germany's exporters have had a weak start to the year and will barely grow amid US competition and the German Trade Association sees recession worsening in southern EU

In spite of the flooding of the world with US currency, the German market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007. Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. But once again look at the spike up in stock prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America to the stock and bond markets of the world as more people enter poverty, go hungry and lose their jobs under Socialism’s equality of poverty.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation but the market no similar market advance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.

American Economy

The DJI failed to break out. Now that the Big Brother and the FED is inflating the money supply the new highs don’t even Given the inflation exceeding 15% since the last high in 2008 it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

This week

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

The Markets April 30, 2013

It is the Administration's QE3 and sequester incompetence.. not the spending cuts that is now hurting the American economy. The over supply of materials, oil and gas is due to the declines in the world economies and hides the underlying growth of inflation because people are not working. Once the economic decline levels off, inflation will surge. There is plenty of government waste that can be cut that would improve the American economy and a new law should not have been necessary to tell the administration to get smart and to cut duplication in departments and other waste. For example if the department heads cannot figure out how to intelligently cut waste then Obama should fire the heads because they are a source of waste. Instead Obama hired 20,000 new IRS agents to harass everyone they can. The new Senate bill would not be necessary if the administration thought that the department heads, about which Congress knows very little, were competent enough to administer their own departmental cuts.

Bull markets once ran 3 years then 4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours has already run 4 years so far. Bear markets follow for 1 to 2 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Look at the recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? Look at the last 5 years. It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008. Again look at 5 years and you see the worst is yet to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 before the bear market ends.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindi? cese=europe

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Latest GDP report shows U.S. economy still drifting. The administration already claimed the last quarter of 2012 and the first quarter 2013 U.S. economy growth were at an annualized rate of 3 percent and the fiscal cliff would hurt the economy. Instead, while Obama was running for re-election the economy was dragging along at 0.4%. The updated estimate released this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was a disappointing annualized rate of 2.5 percent for the latest Quarter. Growth continues to be sluggish and will likely get worse as the Obama tax increases and the infantile administration spending cuts of the most important government programs like transportation finally start to bite.

The main sources of growth were personal consumption but the question is whether this is sustainable given the BEA reports that real disposable personal income collapsed at an annualized rate of 5.3 percent even as real spending increased at an annualized pace of 3.2 percent. The mismatch led the personal savings rate to plunge from 4.7 percent to 2.6 percent. Consumption won't be able to continue at this pace as incomes are already declining.

An important new essay at the University of Chicago, argues otherwise. The "wealth effect" was always most potent among those with the worst credit and the least wealth outside of housing. For the most part, those people have lost their homes to foreclosure and are in no position to buy new ones. In fact, rising house prices could restrain consumption further.

The US airlines are suing the FAA and DOT for their infantile behavior on the part of the US federal government bureaucracies. The airline delays are evidence of the gross stupidity as the Federal Government (Executive branch) cuts off its nose to spite its face (Congress). Public and corporate anger with the FAA and DOT bureaucrats is now at a boil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/latest-gdp-report-shows-u-s-economy-still-waiting-for-liftoff.html

People are reporting that "Big Brother is Watching You!" signs are appearing in various forms. Some signs have big eyes. Others report they get computer messages saying things like "Two people are watching you." Read Huxley's book "1984" if you don't know what that means.

Notice that all the current major market indicators failed to set a new high in the latest rally.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=20130225,20130426;compare=^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The previous advance was:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=20120604,20121115;compare=^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

And the rally before that was:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=20121115,20130225;compare=^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Here was the sharp 20% selloff in 2011

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=20110316,20110825;compare=^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The World Gold Council said central banks of all nations from Colombia to

South Africa

bought gold as prices rose in 2011, highlighting the reversal of a three-decade-long bout of central bank selling that cut the world’s biggest bullion hoard by 19 percent. They added 534.6 metric tons to reserves in 2012 and expect purchases of up to 550 tons this year.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN), the world’s largest biotechnology company, declined 6.9% after reporting sales growth that missed estimates.

Qualcomm beat the street in its fiscal second quarter, but a disappointing forward guidance sent its shares down in after-hours trading.

Commodities were falling because China was contracting. But it was absurd to believe that

China

has no business cycle and does not have recessions or depressions. China can have a recession or a depression just as easily as America or

Japan

. China’s new leadership is in place and will concentrate more on internal consumption which means it will grow more internally and import less. China was in a 50 year great communist depression prior to re-introducing free enterprise. And with China with massive stockpiles of commodities they could even go into the mode of selling commodities if they rise quickly. Due to quantitative easing increasing national debt the real weakness will ultimately be in the Dollar and the Yen… not gold. American business has not improved the top line in more than two years and the improving bottom line is unsustainable because talk is cheap and there is no economic growth due to government waste and hyperbole sapping business and consumer confidence.

European and American stock markets rose sharply Tuesday purportedly on investor expectations that new recessionary data out of the euro zone would be so bad that it will force the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next week.

Apple announced its first drop in income in ten years. That obliterates the justification for the PE multiple that it still has even though it has lost its creator and innovator Steve Jobs.

Demand for durable goods slumped in March by the most in seven months, adding to signs manufacturing in the U.S. cooled at the end of the first quarter.

General Electric and McDonald's Corp extended losses on Monday after posting lackluster earnings.

Caterpillar announced earnings fell 40% and dropped its guidance for the year another 30%. Caterpillar however is finally set to resume a stock repurchase program that has been inactive since 2008, with up to $1 billion in buybacks in the second quarter. That means they see this is a good time for them to consolidate and go into more debt. That is usually a sign of confidence in a resumption of growth in a few years.

Travelers, the second-largest U.S. commercial insurer said this month that they are focusing on significantly raising insurance rates rather than lamenting how bond yields and recent disasters hurt returns. Net income rose 15% to $896 million, or $2.33 a share, from $806 million, or $2.02, a year earlier due to rate increases exceeding 20%. This is the first indication that the consumer will tolerate the high inflation that is coming.

Oil is under pressure from fracking gas coming on line. Brent oil dropped to under $100/b and American oil dropped 11% from its high as fracking is breaking up the oil cartel. China has enormous gas reserves and may become an energy exporter too.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-23/china-s-manufacturing-growth-slows-as-economic-recovery-falters.html

The euro region would be able to survive Cyprus leaving the blocs as its members need to ensure rules are adhered to, the head of

Finland

’s highest parliamentary committee said.

Thursday Economic Minister Philipp Roesler said Germany’s gross domestic product will expand 0.5 percent in 2013, lifting a prior prediction of 0.4 percent made in January. Still it is depressing news.

Britain has avoided a third recession thus far as GDP increased 0.3% canceling out the previous 0.3% decline.

China

’s financial and capital account surplus surged in the first quarter as profligate monetary policies in developed economies and expectations of yuan strength spurred inflows of investment.

China has not acted responsibly with the madman on their border who has enormously increased the costs associated with China trade. It causes western democracies to wonder about the stability of China’s leadership too.

Spain

’s 2012 budget deficit was the largest in the EU last year widening to 10.6 percent of gross domestic product, up from 9.4 percent in 2011. It is worse than Greece’s 2012 budget gap of 10 percent. A limit of 3 percent of GDP is imposed by the EU on all members. Crude oil declined on the energy slump due to the slowdown.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation but the market no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.

American Economy

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

This week

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

April 22

Existing Home Sales Mar 4.92M down from 4.98M

April 23

FHFA Housing Price Index Feb 0.7% up from 0.6%

New Home Sales Mar 417K up from 415K

Apr 24

MBA Mortgage Index 04/20 fell to 0.2% from 4.8% -

Durable Orders Mar fell to -5.7% from 5.6% --

Durable Goods -ex transportation Mar fell to -1.4% from -0.7% --

Crude Inventories 04/20 rose to 0.947M from -1.233M +

Apr 25

Initial Claims 04/20 339K down from 352K

Continuing Claims 04/13 3000K down from 3068K as people are transferred from unemployment to welfare.

Natural Gas Inventories 04/20 30 bcf down from 31 bcf

Apr 26

GDP-Adv. Q1 2.5% not 3% and the last quarter was 0.4% not the election touted 3% also.

AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1 1.2% not 1.0%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Apr 76.4 improved from 72.3

The Markets April 26, 2013

It is the Administration's QE3 and sequester incompetence.. not the spending cuts that is hurting the American economy now. The over supply of materials, oil and gas is due to the declines in the world economies and hides the underlying growth of inflation because people are not working. Once the economic decline levels off inflation will surge. Gold is not in a bear market it is only reacting to the current slowdown and the administration attempting to inflict maximum damage for the spending cuts Congress made by making the most stupid choices of what to cut. That infantile administration strategy of spite is angering businessmen and their customers. There is plenty of government waste that can be cut that would improve the American economy and a new law should not have been necessary to tell the administration to get smart and to cut duplication in departments and other waste. For example if the department heads cannot figure out how to intelligently cut waste then Obama should fire the heads because they are a source of waste. Instead Obama hired 20,000 new IRS agents to piss off everyone they can. The new Senate bill would not be necessary if the administration thought the department heads, about which Congress knows very little,were competent enough to administer their own departmental cuts.

The market appears to have entered the churning phase that only occurs at market tops when strong hands sell to weak hands and go on the sidelines. At market bottoms we have what is called the falling dagger that forms when weak hands panic and just when the weak have liquidated, suddenly the strong hands buy in and the market spikes back upward. It is unwise to try to catch a falling knife at least for a few weeks. It is unwise to increase margin in a falling market.

Sometimes in the early stage of a bull market the weak hands actually cause a small recovery when they go 100% invested. Sometimes in a severe bear market the strong hands may start to buy before the weak hands have been flushed completely out of market trading. Those different levels become tests of whether the strong want to buy (are optimistic). The weak have already lost most of their value and have little cash. Hence a rally of the weak will not sustain a bull market until the market is considered undervalued by the strong hands. Only those that got out can get back in unless they go on margin.

We think this year will resemble the last two where the market advanced early in the year then lost most of it and then reversed again and gained it back by December. Bull markets once ran 3 years then 4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours has already run 4 years so far. Bear markets follow for 1 to 2 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Look at the recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? Look at the last 5 years. It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindi? cese=europe

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Chechen terrorists believed behind the Boston Marathon bombings. Mexico may overtake China for new international manufacturing markets again because having a pyorrhea like N Korea on China’s border makes China an unattractive future investment area. Worldwide, nations are now looking for place to move production out of China. China’s property rebound gathered speed in March as new home prices in Guangzhou rose 11.1 percent from a year earlier the fastest rise in more than two years. Beijing property climbed 8.6 percent and Shanghai rose 6.4 percent. Prices rose in 68 of 70 cities tracked by the government, the largest inflation gains since January 2011. What is interesting is that labor costs are now rising rapidly in China and by 2015 the USA (with automation) will be just as competitive for American consumption because transportation risk costs and other N Korea related insurance risks are high for China trade. That will mean that China will lose access to future American technology.

It is believed that China will remain competitive for products consumed by China but not for the USA or the EU. However, much of China’s growth appears to now be an illusion caused by price inflation not real productivity. China has not acted responsibly with the madman on their border who has enormously increased the costs associated with China trade. It causes western democracies to wonder about the stability of China’s leadership.

Often a market decline of Monday’s magnitude is just a correction. But every four months of advance as we just had, we can see three to four times as big a decline over a period of one to two months starting this past Monday. We think this year will resemble the last two where the market advanced early in the year then lost most of it and gained it back by December. There is however an increasing possibility that the bull market we had since April 2009 is over. Bull markets once ran 3 years then 4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours has run 4 years so far. Bear markets follow for 1 to 2 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

We have now seen the gold shakeout that George Soros and others wanted to initiate last year. Unfortunately for the small investors Soros succeeded in panicking some of them. As we saw in the last few weeks, the drop in the value of the yen already had the Japanese selling their gold jewelry because it is a unique opportunity to sell gold since it rose 15% relative to the Yen. Now they are buying. Retail buying of gold has reportedly surged now in Asia. India purportedly instituted a unique rule that if you buy more than $1000 in gold they record your tax ID. That was to e. liminate illegal activities but has had a frightening effect on everyone who worries about their taxes. That causes pent-up demand and

India

will have a gold rush again when the dam breaks. The biggest initial movers in the markets were the margin calls among commodity holders who were speculating. But at least 10% to 15% is the expected decline as George Soros does his very best to destabilize the free world.

All commodities are falling because China is contracting now and nobody wants to talk about it. But it was absurd to believe that China has no cycle and always goes up a little. China can have a recession or a depression just as easily as America or Japan. And with China now in a contraction and with massive stockpiles of commodities they could even go into the mode of selling commodities. But the real weakness will ultimately be in the Dollar and the Yen… not gold due to quantitative easing increasing national debt. American business has not improved the top line in more than a year and the improving bottom line is unsustainable because talk is cheap and there is no economic growth due to government waste and hyperbole sapping business and consumer confidence.

Jim Rogers and many others say we set a new resistance plateau and Gold will never see these lows again. In fact the cost of mining gold is going through the roof and gold inventories are collapsing.

http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/
http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-once-this-bottom-is-formed-we-may-never-see-gold-at-these-levels-ever-again/

The Obama administration has been talking up the market and placating the poor with food stamps and toys for four years now with few good results. It’s not working: Nearly 2M NYC residents are now on food stamps

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/it_not_working_for_nyc_9gOw49ADIcfKTXeaMm2aWO?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Business

Physical demand for gold is now extraordinary. Gold extended gains above $1,400 an ounce as demand surges for precious metal as investor’s are taking advantage of the biggest slump in prices in three years. The fear is that the hard metal not gold funds will be the only thing that will survive the collapse of the world currencies. We are still in a contraction and the CPI is expected to quadruple from here just with the current debt. The German currency in the 1920’s saw a stick of butter costing $trillion’s when they ran their deficit spending. That was a lesson the German people learned and do not want to repeat and why Germany is now the most frugal government in the world. The premium for metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is as much as $10, in

Turkey

it’s almost $20. Last week, the premium was about $1. Spot gold had dropped as much as 8 percent on Monday, falling as low as $1,355.80 an ounce. "The pressure from the proposed dumping of Cyprus gold is one of the factors, and once one of them start, they all run from the hen house," said Robert Richardson, senior account executive and trading officer at Canadian broker-dealer W.D. Latimer Co. Ltd.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/M?anticache=1366055762

Oil is under pressure from fracking gas coming on line. Brent oil dropped 10% over the week. China has enormous gas reserves and may become an energy exporter too.

World Economies

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

German economic expectations deteriorated in April, falling for the first time in five months, according to the ZEW survey.

Investors dumped stocks and other commodities after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data raised concerns about the global economic outlook.

China

's recovery unexpectedly became more honest and thus stumbled in the first three months of 2013, as it reported its annual growth rate eased to 7.7 percent. In actuality their growth sounds closer to 3% not 7.7%. Industrial output in China in March also undershot expectations and added to investor sensitivity after recent disappointing economic data out of the United States.

Brent crude fell towards $100 a barrel, while on Wall Street stocks were down more than 1 percent. Normally it stayed above $109 but it fell to the level of Texas oil last week. And with world gas reserves it could fall briefly to $50/barrel again.

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

American Economy

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

This week

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Apr 15

U.S.

regional manufacturing report on Monday showed the pace of growth slowed.

Export Prices ex-ag. Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown from0.6%

Empire Manufacturing Apr 3.1 sharply down from 9.2

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Feb -$17.8B an outflow of foreign investment down from previous inflows such as $25.7B.

NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 42 down from 44

Apr 17

MBA Mortgage Index 04/13 4.8% flat 4.5%

Crude Inventories 04/13 -1.233M sharply lower from 0.250M

Fed's Beige Book Apr to cut QE before the end of 2013

Apr 18

Initial Claims 04/13 352K up 2% from 346K

Continuing Claims 04/6 3068K flat from 3079K

Philadelphia Fed Apr 1.3 contracting from 2.0

Leading Indicators Mar -0.1% sharply lower from 0.5%

Natural Gas Inventories 04/13 31 bcf increasing

The Markets April 19, 2013

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Regulators and exchanges altered the speed bumps adopted after the May 2010 flash crash. The new system, known as limit-up/limit-down, replaces automatic halts. Perhaps it has some serious problems. The stock market pull back has begun. This time it will likely be much worse than the last one we had. It is unwise to try to catch a falling knife at least for a few weeks. It is unwise to increase margin in a falling market.

Look at the recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? Look at the last 5 years. It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Hedge-fund manager John Paulson started the year with about $9.5 billion invested across his hedge funds, of which 85 percent was in gold share classes. His wager on gold wiped out $1.52 billion on paper, of his personal wealth in the last two trading days as the precious metal dropped 13 percent. Paulson is sticking with his thesis that gold is the best hedge against inflation and currency debasement as countries pump money into their economies, according to his New York-based firm that manages about $18 billion. The currency of Japan has fallen almost 20% this year and people are flocking to melt down their gold and cash in on the rapid rise in the price of gold vs. the yen. While Japan’s stock market has been rising in yen it is falling vs. the dollar and falling faster vs. the value of gold.

Jim Rogers and many others say we set a new resistance plateau and Gold will never see these lows again. In fact the cost of mining gold is going through the roof and gold inventories are collapsing.

http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/

http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-once-this-bottom-is-formed-we-may-never-see-gold-at-these-levels-ever-again/

It’s not working: Nearly 2M NYC residents on food stamps

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/it_not_working_for_nyc_9gOw49ADIcfKTXeaMm2aWO?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Business

Spot gold dropped as much as 8 percent on Monday alone, falling as low as $1,355.80 an ounce. "The pressure from the proposed sale of Cyprus gold is one of the factors, and once one of them start, they all run from the hen house," said Robert Richardson, senior account executive and trading officer at Canadian broker-dealer W.D. Latimer Co. Ltd.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/M?anticache=1366055762

Oil is under pressure from fracking gas coming on line. Brent oil dropped 10% over the week. China has enormous gas reserves and may become an energy exporter too.

The percentage of Americans “comfortable “ with their future retirement dropped from 37% to 13% while those with no confidence at all rose from 10% to 28%.

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Americans-Retirement-Funds/2013/03/27/id/496544/?promo_code=12F38-1&utm_source=taboola

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week, suggesting the economic recovery is no longer responding to the FED flooding the stock market with credit. This week it improved slightly. Most of the FED money is going to brokers and bankers who have been giving themselves record bonuses since the Obama bailout of banks began. Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K. Kim Jong Il claims he has final approval for a nuclear first strike.

World Economies

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c50f3068-a180-11e2-bae1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Q3jnqJOj

Spain’s austerity program has begun to pay off and

Spain

is less likely to need a sovereign bailout now that funding interest rate costs have begun falling, Moody’s Investors Service said.

A sharp improvement in

manufacturing, which accounts for 7pc of GDP should avert a third economic decline.

Ford Focus was the world’s best-selling passenger car in 2012.

India's once-booming American car market has just had a sharp reversal. China, has reported a trade balance deficit partially due to the import of American cars.

French and Dutch bond values are falling as interest rates rise in response to unbalanced budgets.

Poland

plans to stop throwing money away on energy subsidies the deputy economy minister said.

China's latest trade figures showed a sharp decline in exports to the USA and the EU. While total quoted export growth in March is far more reasonable than in January and February, the breakdown of exports is absurd. But that has always been typical of socialist countries when they get in trouble because they do not understand business economics.

This is

China

’s worst IPO market in seven years a sign of a maturing economy.

Half of the S. Koreans don’t expect an all- out war with the North, and 43 percent do.

Coptic Christians denounced Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi as the genocide killing of Christians by Moslems climbed into the hundreds. This is days after Mursi got jet fighters from President Barack Hussein Obama.

The German bund gained and gold recently rose above $1,600 an ounce again.

http://www.kitco.com/market/

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

The German market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007. Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

American Economy

The DJI failed to break out considering the inflation exceeded 15% since the last high in 2008 so it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.

This week

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Apr 9

Wholesale Inventories Feb -0.3% improved from 1.2%

Apr 10

MBA Mortgage Index 04/06 4.5% improved from -4.0%

FOMC Minutes 3/20 leaked to special interests

Crude Inventories 04/06 0.250M worsened 2.707M

Apr 11

Treasury Budget Mar -$106.5B deficit lower than previously -$198.2B -
Initial Claims 04/06 346K still extremely high 385K
Continuing Claims 03/30 3079K up from 3063K with 3 million no longer looking for jobs.
Export Prices ex-ag. Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown from0.6%
Import Prices ex-oil Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown from 0.0%
Natural Gas Inventories 04/06 -14 bcf declined less than last week -94 bcf

Apr 12

Retail Sales Mar -0.4% fell sharply from 1.1%

Retail Sales ex-auto Mar -0.4% fell sharply from 1.0%
Core PPI Mar 0.2% flat 0.2%
Mich Sentiment Apr 72.3 down sharply 78.6
Business Inventories Feb 0.1% fell from 1.0%

Markets April 12

Regulators and exchanges are altering the speed bumps adopted after the May 2010 flash crash. The new system, known as limit-up/limit-down, replaces automatic halts.

During the industrial revolution in

America

production cycle once took 4 years and then there was a 20 year panic/depression/obsolescence cycle. Now with manipulation it hits 4 years and then the FED gives us a 2 year bubble and we end up with a depression or serious recession every 6 years. We are in the second year of the ObamaBubble and the world remains in the world depression Obama/Dodd/Frank started with race-based liar-loans and then race-based cash to folks who claimed the Farm Bureau did not give them all the money some other people unfairly got.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? It still looks close to zero. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

New nonfarm Payrolls in March were at only88K, collapsed from 236K. Nonfarm Private Payroll increase in March was only 95K, collapsed from 246K. These variations make little common sense. We believe the job rate was never as good as Obama has claimed. Unemployment Rate March down to 7.6%?? It got better from 7.7%?? This method of reporting makes no common sense and is a numbers game that depends on how long the unemployed get their unemployment benefits. They have to look for a job to stay listed as unemployed and getting benefits. But when they run out of benefits they stop looking for a job and then they are not counted as unemployed. They join almost 3 million unemployed people that Obama is no longer counting. As we have been warning we have a QE3 bubble and it is bursting or about to burst. True Obama unemployment is closer to 15% now. In Europe they claim 12% average unemployment but the honest numbers are more than 20% and new college graduates in some places are at 40% unemployment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week, suggesting the economic recovery is no longer responding to the FED flooding the stock market with credit. None of it is getting to real businesses other than brokers and bankers who have been giving themselves record bonuses since the Obama bailout of banks began. Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K.

Only manipulated American stock market indices have set new all-time highs. And if they did not always set new highs the manipulators would be fired for not doing their jobs. How is the manipulation done? That is very easy. First you start with a diverse small portfolio of the best stocks in each industry. That alone says it will outperform the average market. You remove the buggy whip stocks when the car replaces the buggy. There are three phases of growth, the slow start-up phase, the full growth phase and finally the mature to obsolescent phase. Apple is entering the mature to obsolescent phase due to the loss of its creative force Steve Jobs. Perhaps they will be replaced Apple soon by a growth technology 3-D print start-up firm. GE bought one already as GE and UTC and other technology companies acquire growth technologies to maintain their growth. Broader markets such as the NYSE are a better indication of the true economy and they all say the US economy is slipping along with the rest of the world and is being set up now for a big 10% to 20% correction.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20%2Ce50&a=m26-12-9&c=

‘The Great Deformation’ by David A. Stockman. 768 pages is a good honest buy. Last week at record manipulate market highs he said, “The stock market is now where it was 13 years ago. And what’s happened in the past 13 years? Only 2 million jobs created, 17,000 per month, when we’ve needed 150,000 per month. We’re so far gone.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/01/david-stockman-on-the-great-deformation-and-our-economic-doom.html

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/367134/december-02-2010/david-stockman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHgnavl_tw

Copper production is the source of most silver because silver is a major by-product of copper production. The price of copper reached an eight-month low in London as worse-than-estimated European economic figures and slumping car sales fueled concern about demand prospects when stockpiles of the metal are the highest since 2003. That means copper production will be reduced and therefore the scarcer silver supplies will decline faster.

Stockton was one of three cities that filed for bankruptcy in California last year. San Bernardino was first declaring more than $1 billion in liabilities in the first of what will be many court filings. Mammoth Lakes also filed. A federal judge ruled Monday that Stockton is eligible for bankruptcy protection, despite the objection of creditors who say they would like to sell off some of Stockton’s assets first.

Bernanke is bound to repeat the FED bubble disasters of the recent past. The FED did not see the bubble that they inflated from 2005 until 2008. The FED is clueless as to how their quantitative easing is inflating a stock market bubble and an Obama entitlement debt bubble that will likely cause rioting in American cities like in 1969 when this FED bubble bursts. And given the past history of FED miscalculations this bubble will burst within about a year unless they stop inflating it. The FED seems blind to the money coming to America to escape socialism and communism. When the Bernanke bubble bursts all that money will flee from America and American banks will go bust again. This time however

America

will be up to the eyeballs with Obama debt and there will be nothing left to stimulate.

Obama has been hollowing out the American economy cutting the vital services and infrastructure such as national defense and hydrocarbon energy and subsidizing uneconomically sustainable energy sources, expanding welfare, and creating a debt that will cause an economic collapse when Obama debt bankrupts America. This Bernanke bubble will burst within a year or two. The Obama debt already exceeds the American debt of the entire WWII.

Service industries expanded in March at the slowest pace in seven months and companies added fewer workers than forecast, indicating a slowing of US Growth.

From an historical perspective gold could exceed 1750/oz within 12 months.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/W?anticache=1364055809

From an historical perspective silver could exceed 34/oz within 12 months.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV_/W?anticache=1364056143

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

Chancellor Angela Merkel is losing support for conversion from Atomic Energy to renewable-power expansion, undermining her $700 billion program to replace all atomic reactors by 2022 and triple renewables’ share by 2050.

China

has begun to explore fracking and has more natural gas resources than any country in the world.

America is installing a missile defense system on Guam pointing at N Korea. Also satellites have been relocated to help shoot down N. Korean aircraft if required. Obama sets up a team to eliminate the leaders of the latest world terrorism threats.

Bond yields in France to Austria slid as retail sales declined.

Japan

’s economy is going to improve in the coming months due to a weak yen and a pickup in exports,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Bleak euro zone economic data added to fear in the markets, driving demand for safe haven assets. U.S. Treasuries debt prices jumped, with benchmark yields falling to their lowest levels in three weeks. The German bund gained and gold rose above $1,600 an ounce again.

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AEX.AS&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=my

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.

American Economy

The DJI failed to break out. Given the inflation exceeding 15% since the last high in 2008 it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.

This week
A composite index for the services and manufacturing industries fell to 46.5 from 47.9. Anything below 50 means the business is declining. The composite gauge has been below 50 for 14 straight months and just got worse.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Existing Home Sales continue depressed.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing

Apr 1

March ISM Manufacturing Index Mar is 51.3, plummets from 54.2

Construction Spending Feb 1.2% recovers from -2.1%

April 2

The leading Indicators in Feb were flat at 0.5% due to stock market peaking.

April 3

MBA Mortgage Index 03/30 of new applications plunged -4.0%

ADP Employment Change March down to unsustainable 158K from 198K

March ISM services index also plummets to 54.4% from 56.0%

Crude Inventories 03/30 dropped to 2.707M NA from 3.256M

Apr 4

Challenger Job Cuts Mar 30.0% up from 7.0%

Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K

Continuing Claims 03/23 3063K rose from 3050K

Markets

Money is flowing into America and the American economy has been benefiting from the collapse of socialist economies as money flees Europe, the BRICKS,

China

, and Japan much the way it did in the late nineties when Russian and Asian equity markets collapsed and they had a banking crisis. We see that is happening now as the dollar strengthens and the socialists squeeze their brightest and hardest workers to cover the cost of socialist entitlements.

Cyprus

is a lesson and we will see money continue to flee socialist countries into American markets. But the socialists will try to stop the outflow and will succeed.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? It still looks like close to zero The American dock workers are ready to go on to strike as soon as the economy picks up. World trade.