Thursday, April 11, 2013

Hedge-fund manager John Paulson started the year with about $9.5 billion invested across his hedge funds, of which 85 percent was in gold share classes. His wager on gold wiped out $1.52 billion on paper, of his personal wealth in the last two trading days as the precious metal dropped 13 percent. Paulson is sticking with his thesis that gold is the best hedge against inflation and currency debasement as countries pump money into their economies, according to his New York-based firm that manages about $18 billion. The currency of Japan has fallen almost 20% this year and people are flocking to melt down their gold and cash in on the rapid rise in the price of gold vs. the yen. While Japan’s stock market has been rising in yen it is falling vs. the dollar and falling faster vs. the value of gold.

Jim Rogers and many others say we set a new resistance plateau and Gold will never see these lows again. In fact the cost of mining gold is going through the roof and gold inventories are collapsing.

 
It’s not working: Nearly 2M NYC residents on food stamps

Spot gold dropped as much as 8 percent on Monday alone, falling as low as $1,355.80 an ounce. "The pressure from the proposed sale of Cyprus gold is one of the factors, and once one of them start, they all run from the hen house," said Robert Richardson, senior account executive and trading officer at Canadian broker-dealer W.D. Latimer Co. Ltd.

Oil is under pressure from fracking gas coming on line.  Brent oil dropped 10% over the week.  China has enormous gas reserves and may become an energy exporter too.
The percentage of Americans “comfortable “ with their future retirement dropped from 37% to 13% while those with no confidence at all rose from 10% to 28%. 

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week, suggesting the economic recovery is no longer responding to the FED flooding the stock market with credit.  This week it improved slightly.  Most of the FED money is going to brokers and bankers who have been giving themselves record bonuses since the Obama bailout of banks began.   Initial unemployment Claims 03/30 rose to 385K from 357K.  Kim Jong Il claims he has final approval for a nuclear first strike. 

World Economies

Spain’s austerity program has begun to pay off and Spain is less likely to need a sovereign bailout now that funding interest rate costs have begun falling, Moody’s Investors Service said.

A sharp improvement in UK manufacturing, which accounts for 7pc of GDP should avert a third economic decline.

Ford Focus was the world’s best-selling passenger car in 2012.

India's once-booming American car market has just had a sharp reversal.  China, has reported a trade balance deficit partially due to the import of American cars. 
French and Dutch bond values are falling as interest rates rise in response to unbalanced budgets. 

Poland plans to stop throwing money away on energy subsidies the deputy economy minister said. 

China's latest trade figures showed a sharp decline in exports to the USA and the EU.  While total quoted export growth in March is far more reasonable than in January and February, the breakdown of exports is absurd.  But that has always been typical of socialist countries when they get in trouble because they do not understand business economics.

This is China’s worst IPO market in seven years a sign of a maturing economy.

Half of the S. Koreans don’t expect an all- out war with the North, and 43 percent do.   

Coptic Christians denounced Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi as the genocide killing of Christians by Moslems climbed into the hundreds.  This is days after Mursi got jet fighters from President Barack Hussein Obama. 

The German bund gained and gold recently rose above $1,600 an ounce again.
The German market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007.  Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.

The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  But once again look at the spike up in stock prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America to the stock and bond markets of the world as more people enter poverty, go hungry and lose their jobs under Socialism’s equality of poverty.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

  The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation but the market no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined.

 American Economy
The DJI failed to break out considering the inflation exceeded 15% since the last high in 2008 so it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 

This week

Apr 9
Wholesale Inventories Feb -0.3% improved from 1.2%

Apr 10
MBA Mortgage Index 04/06 4.5% improved from -4.0%
FOMC Minutes 3/20 leaked to special interests
Crude Inventories 04/06 0.250M worsened 2.707M 

Apr 11
Treasury Budget Mar -$106.5B deficit lower than previously -$198.2B -
Initial Claims 04/06 346K still extremely high 385K
Continuing Claims 03/30 3079K up from 3063K with 3 million no longer looking for jobs.
Export Prices ex-ag. Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown from0.6% 
Import Prices ex-oil Mar -0.2% fell with slowdown from 0.0%
Natural Gas Inventories 04/06 -14 bcf declined less than last week -94 bcf

Apr 12
Retail Sales Mar -0.4% fell sharply from 1.1%
Retail Sales ex-auto Mar -0.4% fell sharply from 1.0%
Core PPI Mar 0.2% flat 0.2%  
Mich Sentiment Apr 72.3 down sharply 78.6
Business Inventories Feb 0.1% fell from 1.0%

 Markets April 12
Regulators and exchanges are altering the speed bumps adopted after the May 2010 flash crash. The new system, known as limit-up/limit-down, replaces automatic halts.
 
During the industrial revolution in America production cycle once took 4 years and then there was a 20 year panic/depression/obsolescence cycle.  Now with manipulation it hits 4 years and then the FED gives us a 2 year bubble and we end up with a depression or serious recession every 6 years.  We are in the second year of the ObamaBubble and the world remains in the world depression Obama/Dodd/Frank started with race-based liar-loans and then race-based cash to folks who claimed the Farm Bureau did not give them all the money some other people unfairly got.

Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined?  It still looks close to zero. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Bernanke is pushing on a string.  The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates. 

The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008.

World market updates:
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

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