Tuesday, September 29, 2015

October 2 This was a very interesting day. The market makers were again using higher volatility to shake out novice bears to cover shorts at a loss and to entice bullish novices to buy in now with their belief that the market has bottomed. But the market has not bottomed it is skipping along the recent bottom attempting to bring more buyers into the market before it eventually plummets. The market makers are now short sellers and want the unlucky novice stock buyers to get fully invested because they are the ones who will eventually lead the panic. Short sellers need buyers to eventually panic and sell. Each time the market surges the short sellers short more and more. Ultimately, because the economy is sinking, they will win and the market will crumble. You can tell the bears are in complete control from just looking at the almost linear rise in prices today after the initial short selling. The short sellers were in complete control of stock prices and there was no uncontrolled exuberance allowed. That means the bears are carefully finishing their controlled shorting and coaxing out every bullish novice. At some point soon the buying will dry up and with falling values many hedge funds will run out of liquidity. As stock values plummet, historically those on margin lose everything in the price swings that drop most stocks for brief moments by as much as 70% to 90%.

        U.S. job growth crumbled with August numbers revised down another 37000 and September numbers were down to 142000 from the usual needed 200,000 to 300,000 new hires in a healthy economy.  Factory orders in August fell 1.7% and July numbers were reduced a further 0.2% from the previous report.   This would normally put off a Fed rate height but they already put it off too long.   The Fed should have raise the rate 0.1% this past January and broken the ice while the financial markets were still high.  Fed policies have put the USA in a position similar to 1932 when FDR took a Hover USA recession and converted it into the FDR Great World Depression.  Obama has taken the Bush USA recession and now put the USA and the world on the verge of another complete financial collapse.   Putin is now bombing the good-guys in Syria and leaving ISIS alone.  Israel and Jordan now have the only intelligent, sane, and courageous leaders in that part of the world.  The world is praying for the US to soon elect a new president who is not stupid or a coward so that the USA can lead the world once more.
            October 1   The Wall Street Journal reported that job layoffs surged 44% last month to levels not seen since the month the stock market began to collapse in the Fall of 2008.  New hiring also fell to 200k when 300k is what is needed to maintain full employment just in normal times.  Also record numbers of corporations are announcing layoffs.  The WSJ already had its own layoffs.  During the past month surprise layoffs have been happening even at public and private institutions like science centers as states and municipalities are cutting back and corporations hunker down.  Approximately one in three Americans now personally knows someone who has been recently laid off or fired.  Walmart stores and Nike shoes make the news often now due to their poor quality.  Nike shoes have been falling apart at track meets since at least 2011.  And still their incompetent management has been more focused more on NAMBLA and on changing the American Constitution’s Bill of Rights than they are on their businesses.   So far Nike has not been investigated in the soccer bribery scandal.   Yet soccer athletes and officials use their shoes almost exclusively although they are known to have serious problems.
Challenger Job Cuts Sep 93.2% up from 2.9% 
            September 30     While it is still possible that the stock market could set a temporary bottom here and bounce, the broadest NYSE market average and the highly sensitive Russell average have already set lower lows both in price and cash flow.   It seems investors are waiting for a stronger reaction to be certain the extremely loose credit bull market is over.  The market could bounce slightly and cause a temporary mad rush into stocks.  But we estimate that the market will be 10% to 70% lower in January depending on the world economic news which continues to deteriorate.  The uncertainty is caused by the huge amount of Quantitative Easing that hasn’t even begun to be unwound.
            The danger of economic and psychologically crippling terrorism in the USA has increased several folds under Obama and is much worse now than just before the 9-11 attacks.   When Americans go to the ISIS region for other than American government business they should first have their Visas voided and then be given 30 days to appeal in person in a USA courtroom before their citizenship is suspended.   Once their citizenship is suspended they should have to apply through a foreign USA embassy for a temporary visa to return to US authorities to face charges of unauthorized activities to either clear themselves or face a possible prison term or expulsion from the USA.  Under Obama more than 240 Americans have joined the ISIS organization of homicidal terrorist maniacs.
         September 29   The resistance level of the last major bottom was broken yesterday for three of the five stock market cash flow indices we follow.  Yesterday Carl Icahn warned, “History is doomed to repeat itself here.” “I’ve been around a long time. I’ve seen it before, ‘69 ‘74, ‘79. I can tell you ... ’87, 2000 wasn’t pretty, and I think a time is coming that might make some of those times look pretty good.”
      Icahn, who just endorsed Donald Trump’s presidential bid, also commented on the socialist crony capitalist situation in the U.S.  “I love this country, but I sure as hell don’t love a lot of the politicians in it or the CEOs.”  Trump may be “brash,” but he’s willing to say what he believes and he’s willing to say, ‘Hey, this is complete bullshit.’”  
            September 28   A forward-looking gauge of U.S. home sales lost 1.4% in August—further evidence that the US economy has peaked for this dismal Obama economy with its grossly inflated money supply and record bubble stock market.  Any time now we can expect a test of the recent stock market lows.
            Shell has given up on arctic oil drilling finding little oil or gas.  It was a false start after the bluster and competitive threats from Russia’s hapless arctic drilling.  But it turned out to be a complete waste of Shell’s time.  Russia likes to control everything and always spreads itself too thin.  Russia is slowly becoming a radioactive waste dump as its nuclear arsenal disintegrates with age and becomes a national health threat.    It was Ronald Regan who called them the Evil Empire after Russia shot down a fully loaded Japanese passenger plane similar to the way they shot down the Malaysian airplane that flew over the part of the Ukraine that Russia recently invaded.   Russia has not had a successful atomic detonation test since their Empire of Evil imploded.  Putin seems to becoming more reasonable as the third world economies slip into deeper recession and Russia arsenal turns into a heap of radioactive scrap.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

September 26 The readership of this blog must be quite vast. Please pass on this blog to others. The political socialist meatheads are now frustrated and are quitting. We even recently pointed out how IPO gimmicks have driven stock and drug prices into the stratosphere and later this week the Biotech’s took a big stock market hit. We recently pointed out the cowardice of Yellen and the Fed’s lost opportunity to re-establish interest rates as a useful anti-recession monetary policy and then later this week Yellen apologized for the FED cowardice. But unfortunately it is too little too late.

Another shutdown of the Obama federal government’s socialist zoo is likely over his insistence on Federal funding of infanticide and Planned Parenthood’s harvesting of the fresh baby parts for sale to the rich Democrat Liberals and Socialists who are the only ones who can pay for them.  We have very sick socialists not true liberals like our Founding Fathers running the American Republic, and Americans in increasing numbers want to take away their control of our government. 
            Americans are learning that Hitler and Stalin are faces on the two sides of the same socialist coin.  Hitler was a National Socialist dictator, a crony capitalist socialist who exploited capitalism to rapidly increase wealth and national power.  Stalin was an International Socialist dictator who incompetently and maliciously killed more of his own people than he conquered.   England’s and India’s democratic socialism is a slow "Libtard" paralyzing form of the socialist disease that ultimately leads to a totalitarian state that attempts to control everyone until it too collapses or is reborn as a democratic republic.   
           Hilary Clinton’s favored society is the earliest and most primitive form of tribal socialism and polygamy.  Since no one knows who the fathers are, all children and women are treated and abused the same.  That is why Hilary says it takes a tribe to raise a child.  These are the idiots that free thinking socialists have elected to office.  They became so open minded that their brains fell out.  That is why they are so stupid they even keep America’s classified material on their home computers.
            September 25    The best economic news Obama could put forth this week is that housing is doing the best it has done since Obama took office.  That is down about 16% from when he took office which was already 40% down from the high.  Yellen finally has realized that the do-nothing FED is beginning to spread the fear that it is already too late to raise interest rates to regain control of the economy.  We are now pushing on the proverbial string.  That is what happens with mindless socialist crony capitalism. 
            How many chairmen and chairwomen did Obama and the Stupid-party get to appoint when Obama took over GM; six?  Then he sued GM later after GM went private and they identified the faulty ignition switch that was put in by one of Obama’s crony appointees.   The Stupid-party also drove out the chairman who built Bank of America because he, Ken Lewis, resisted “stupid-party” political pressure.  Then Obama put in a politician who has done little but follow Obama’s orders.  That is why crony socialism does not work and Bank of America has gone nowhere.  The whole stock market is now a financial panic waiting to happen.
 
September 22    Here is how the Obama/Clinton stupid party has destroyed the American Dream and what we need to do to prevent an Obama/Clinton Great Depression.     Obviously this takes at least a book to explain.  One paragraph attempts to show only how a “brainless” climate allows stupidity to flourish.  In an effort to broaden their appeal so that they can buy the votes of the downtrodden the “Stupid Party” has advocated here at home in the USA the dumbest and most inhumane religious and philosophical theories of the worlds most over populated failed cultures.  They have welcomed the ideas of those tribal fatherless peoples to destroy the enlightened Western World.   Hilary wrote a book on it!  They are so stupid they think it takes a tribe, not two faithful parents to raise a child.  They have dumbed down the universities with their dumb stupid-party professors.  They then dumbed down the high schools and created a dropout underclass by removing academic tests that expose and thus deter ignorance.  They penalized common sense and subsidized stupidity by eliminating the safety net for two parent families and instead they subsidize only irresponsibility by giving unlimited child-based welfare to single women who are not equipped to raise a family of four or five self sufficient children who could then break out of poverty. 
            They have created and high-cost economy by Obama’s crappy care because Obama’s stupid party system spreads stupidity with it.  It allows companies to waste money and then capitalize all the waste in a single IPO.  For instance Company A develops a drug for $1 million, borrows $10 Billion and gives its owners stock and high salaries.  Then it sells itself in an IPO for $1Trillion.  The new owner then values of the drug one million times more expensive than it cost to create.  And the Obama/Clinton stupid party accepts the inflated price and the American taxpayer has to pay it under Obama’s crappy care.  The American economy is now on the verge of collapse.
            That brainless political party has done the same abroad.  Russia is now expanding again into the Mideast.  The Free-World is now being over run by the brainless who bring with them totalitarianism and violence and insane religious laws.  The Obama administration just threw a soldier out of the army because he slugged an Afghan policeman that he caught raping a little boy.
            The stock market is now on the verge of imploding because valuations of corporations are now as fictitious as the valuations of the new expensive drugs.  It has been made possible through IPOs which incorrectly value a corporation at whatever price a stupid buyer will pay.   The FED directors were stupid because they themselves have publicly undermined the economy by not raising rates thus telling anyone who can reason that the FED knows they would be blamed when the economy implodes.  That says the FED itself is now predicting an economic collapse.  And in this pandemonium created by the “Stupid Party” all Americans are vulnerable due to electronic theft and the fact we have a cashless society dependent entirely on vulnerable electronic banking.
            Existing Home Sales Aug 5.31M down sharply from 5.59M in July. 
Retail Sales Aug 0.2% down from 0.6% last month.
NY Empire state Manufacturing Sep -14.7 down again after -14.9 last month.
Industrial Production Aug -0.4% sharply lower from 0.6% last month.
MBA Mortgage Index 09/12 -7.0% down from -6.2% last month.
CPI Aug -0.1% down from 0.1% last month.           
Housing Starts Aug 1126K down from 1206K last month.
            Moynihan of Bank of America was installed by Obama after the stupid party harassed Ken Lewis out because he resisted the stupid-party when they forced the bank to absorb the failed corrupt Countrywide Corporation.  Now BOA is the poorest performing big bank in America.
            How do we solve the problem?  The Stupid Party and their philosophy must to be ejected by the American people in the coming elections.  Very soon most Americans will realize what a mistake it was to take the path of third world tribal thinking of the Clintons and Obama.

Monday, September 14, 2015

September 19 Be prepared for the stock markets in the entire world to plunge together in the next systemic decline in equities and asset values. And it will not be the end unless it breaks all records. It is more likely this decline will continue on and off past New Years Day. On Friday the DJI took the most significant hit broadcasting that the rally had failed to break out and the decline that had begun in August had just begun its second leg down. The volume traded on the NYSE during normal hours was extremely large but even so the volume rose another record 40% after hours before the trading settled down. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker agrees with us that failing to tighten rates now has raised the risk of “adverse outcomes” for the nation.

            September 18      The FED under Yellen cowered again and probably missed their last opportunity to regain control of the economy.  In effect they punished every corporation and nation that was trying to put their house in order.   Now when the stock market collapses the FED will be pressured to further leverage the industrial base.  The FED is proving they are now an economic liability.  They have done what the Japanese did in 1990 when the Japanese first invented Quantitative Easing and became addicted to it.  Now Japan has lost its leadership in Asia.  Being “highly accommodative” is Yellen’s term for being addicted to easy money.  The forces will now build up for inflation and depression together.  In many countries it will likely result in hyperinflation and devaluations.  America will not be the first to topple but is the money printing machine that most undisciplined countries are keyed into.   We now know we have an incompetent federal government and FED.  Hold onto your hats!  The recession is starting.
        Americans are getting very angry with career politicians who do nothing but concentrate on becoming millionaires.   Both political parties have failed because once in Washington their politicians are corrupted and follow the money rather than their conscience.  There is no reason they should give themselves better special health care, better special pensions, free lunch and free international travel.   They are corrupt and that is why they give themselves special treatment.  When Abraham Lincoln went to Washington he lived in a cold-water flat above a store in Washington DC.  He aspired to change the world for the better and end slavery.  He rocked the boat and was not corrupted by power.  All Obama did was take worldwide vacations, used the government IRS and the NSA to harass domestic critics, abandoned democratic allies, and tried to reset the button and cozying up with fascist Putin and Sharia criminals around the world.   He has been a complete failure and took America down several notches.
       Do not jump into gold too fast.  America can still throw out the corrupt and socialist politicians.  Hyperinflation is preceded by a depression and a government decision to inflate the money supply.  Usually the federal governments confiscate all the gold by making it illegal to hold so that citizens get very little when they are compelled to turn it in at the banks.   First make sure the government has no interest in buying gold because they can set a fixed price like the first American socialist president FDR did.  FDR even doubled the size Supreme Court to stack it with incompetent political hacks so he could rule using unchallenged orders and legislation.   Obama has defeated the American Constitution by using executive orders.
            September 17   Today should be very volatile with swings in both directions because the FED will say whether they will raise interest rates a fraction of how they raised them before Obama’s disastrous administration.  The low interest rates today have allowed people and corporations to acquire huge debts because they could afford the interest on high debt.  If the hike is 0.25%, some corporation’s debt payments will increase tremendously and that will result in huge losses and bankruptcies.   The only reason the FED has been sitting and doing nothing is because they know the economy is headed to a credit crisis and don’t want to be blamed for it.
            September 16  The Market historically rose the day before a FED meeting and did so again yesterday.  But the market seems to be unable to gain any momentum to advance to a new high.  It seems to be topping out about 8 or 9% below the high.
            The major new threat of economic disruption is the spread of terrorism to Europe and America.  The terrorists are trained and are now coming home to roost and the current migration wave is being utilized for that purpose.  Apparently England and France have learned how to electronically tag Moslem terrorists as they go to Syria for training.  The British successfully targeted one Brit and used a drone to kill him.  And the French are going to finally join the air war and target French Moslems who go back for ISIS training.  Finally Europe and the rest of the world, except Africa, is beginning to realize that Obama and the Stupid Party do not give a dam about them and they have to wake up and protect themselves.  This is how the “Stupid Party” has been turning America into a banana republic.  This is why Americans are getting very angry with the “Stupid Party” and the do-nothing Congress.  This is not a good time to be invested long in stocks unless you trade in and out.
            Advisor Mark Yusko today on “Squawk Box” suggested that the Fed should raise rates a full 3%.  That would of course raise short term rates above the long term rates causing an inversion that would result in a recession.  He was actually serious and said recessions were good for clearing out America’s economic problems.
            September 15  The market is drifting sideways as recession reality sinks in, keeping money on the sidelines and reducing the leverage that previously had inflated the stock market bubble.   The market indices now seem ready to rapidly deflate.
            Trump has been tough on the “Stupid Party” as well as the incompetent Republican career politicians who now control both Houses of Congress and still can’t get a majority vote on anything important. 
            Obama keeps running a deficit of about a $trillion per year.  Both consumer confidence and sentiment are declining again.
            The WSJ reported that a government-corporate gangster relationship now exists in India and the WSJ had to fight an injunction to be able to report how an analyst was kidnapped, threatened, and jailed by the gangster run “Indiabulls Group”.   The analyst was apparently kidnapped and threatened by the company lawyer himself.
            The WSJ reported that the drop in international trade growth has never been this bad since the stock market collapsed in 2008-2009, at the same stock market level we hit this year.
            Economist William Mauldin made some accurate predictions in the past.
            Most women are becoming fed up with the blatant dishonesty of Hilary Clinton and realize she is not worthy of any further support for any government job whatsoever.  She hasn’t the smarts to know it is wrong and dangerous to abandon Americans in foreign countries and to keep national intelligence information on her unprotected home computer. This trend in public opinion is quite evident now and most women now seem to hope Hilary drops out so that a past self proclaimed Cherokee woman from Massachusetts can run for V-P.  Hilary’s and Obama’s incompetence together turned an Islamic Spring of hope into a worldwide Islamic Jihad.  Tens of thousands of unmarried young adult Islamic males with radical indoctrination have infiltrated the refugees seeking refuge in Europe and America.  Hilary and Obama have unleashed the worst chaos on the world since WWII.
            September 14  This is a very critical week on Wall Street.  The market is set to decline but no one wants to see that happen.  Yet it clear that knowledgeable investors now are preparing for a bear market by selling and getting into cash.  We saw the first wave at the end of August when the most astute sold and some others altered their portfolios.  Once the cascade selling begins we expect very small rallies going forward.
            When Alibaba had its IPO we warned they were overvalued more than double what was reasonable.  Now with the bear market the IPO may prove to have been four times the real market value.  It is a Communist-Capitalist mutation.
            Mohamed El-Erian today said he expects the FED to begin raising rates at an incremental rate and expects three months of a stock market sell-off.  If in the unlikely event that the FED promised a one-time small rate increase then he said there would be a short rally.
            If you look at Oct 30, 2008 you will see roughly the point where we think we are in this current bear market.  It is important to protect cash or go contrarian to have money to invest early in 2016 when we expect bargain prices.
            The stock market is run by high speed hacks not hackers.  The price level was leveraged by the Fed’s low current interest rates.

Saturday, September 5, 2015

September 11 The short rally this past week was apparently an attempt by the hedge funds to get amateurs like Jim Cramer to persuade listeners to buy in as the hedge funds carefully controlled the advance by selling all they could while letting stocks rise and give novices hope that the bottom was real. Of course it was short lived but enough for shrewd investors to clear 3% to 5% profits... We believe the market will plummet again and what the JCs say is irrelevant. Of course we hope the FED raise rates only 0.1% because relative to the enormous debt burden 0.1% is quite large. It must be raised soon because the alternative is that we end up eventually with world hyperinflation. The plunge is already set in the cards because most good investors know it is so and therefore it will be a self fulfilling event.

        Unfortunately many investors will give up when the market is down more than 50% and that mass exodus will drive the market to a sharp pointed bottom which could be as much as 90% down from the top.  Yet if that is the case, within a year the market may easily jump 300% to 400% from the bottom as everyone who got into cash then gets back in the market.  Later the amateurs will get back in and the boom-bust cycle is repeated.
       When Hilary soon falls by the wayside it is likely the Biden will run and ask the self proclaimed Cherokee princess to be his vice presidential running mate.   He will promise to sit just one term so that the lying socialist princess impostor can then run for president.  After all she is in her mind a princess meant to rule.
            September 8   Bernie Sanders, a self proclaimed Democrat socialist presidential candidate continues to claim that the FED has floated an additional $16 Trillion to keep foreign banks afloat.  That is $16 Trillion foreign in addition to our $17 Trillion FED loan to prop up the American stock market and CEO salaries.  Oddly enough it seems to be true and had its first publicity in 2011.
       The MBA Mortgage Index 09/05 plunged -6.2% from 11.3% in August.  Usually September is one of the best housing sales months in the year.
            David Tepper, Appaloosa Mgt’s president’s big call is that money will now flow out of China and the changing money flows is driving the volatility.  He said the BRICK’s are now around the investor’s necks and the water is rising referring to all the failed investments now coming home.  He said world worth is slowing so PE ratios will drop along with earnings.    He said 20% corrections are normal not the 9% kind that panic people today.  He said he would trade the market buying after the declines.  There are times to make money and other times not to lose money and those govern the size of the investment bets (decisions).
       Like clockwork, Jim Crammer has now begun saying the market is setting its low and it is time to buy again.   We stand by our prediction that it probably will be October before JC says sell-sell-sell!
            September 8   We expect stocks to recover a little more for about a week.  But we believe the large investment firms have prepared themselves to deflate the equities markets rapidly.  That will put extreme pressure on market makers and without the past 1930’s uptick rule for executing stock shorts the market will likely plunge faster than ever since 1929.  Therefore, the market bottom could hit -90% for a short period as early as January instead of taking until April to bottom.  Most people will likely panic and institutions will take control.  The unknown is, “will the incompetent “Stupid Party” administrations that made all the ridiculous new regulations that have destabilized the markets do something even more stupid.”  Remember it was the Clinton administration that in 1998 removed all the 1929-1932 stock market safety features.  And it is the Obama administration that came up with the Dodd-Frank economic hamstring regulations.  The “Stupid Party” has put America back to 1929 when it comes to market intrinsic instability and consequent volatility.   Many investors will get back in just before the final collapse thinking they have bargains.
            September 7    China is burning through its huge stockpile of foreign exchange reserves which it made by paying low wages and restricting imports of competitive foreign products.  It is the fastest pace of currency loss in Chinese history as China seeks to prop up its currency and stem the ever rising tide of money flowing out of the country.  Foreign investors are consequently seeking to take their profits and invest in American dollars making American products more expensive and putting a world wide strain on the American economy.
            As we noted all along, an overheated market ultimately breaks when everything is overpriced and debt is leveraged to the hilt.  The stagnation of corporate growth causes growth of stocks and other collateral to decline and that causes liquidity to dry up and forces liquidations to raise more cash just as China is experiencing for the first time.  The stock market is a leading indicator for the economy because it is one form of financial liquidity that fuels growth.  The news commentators who are saying there is no cause for stocks to decline yet are so stupid because they argue that the economy is still strong.  They are stupid, stupid, stupid, because they don’t know the economy is not the leading indicator of the stock market!  The stupid CBS and MSNBC type commentators like Jim Cramer should have learned in High School that the stock market always drops before the economy declines and that is why the stock market is the best leading indicator of the economy!
            September 5    The BBC with the support of the British Government, out of both ignorance and stupidity are doing everything they possibly can to destabilize Europe and make legal citizens of emigrating terrorists.  Terrorists will no longer need to pirate aircraft to destroy infidel monuments and buildings they will have citizenship or be smuggled in to do their jobs with massive truck bombs.  Perhaps they will even blow up the Chunnel.  The BBC has taken a minor migration issue and used their massive world wide publicity network to create the greatest migration catastrophe of the human race.  Past human migrations improved the human condition.  Today we BBC ratings soar when they can show the bodies of babies washing up on the shores.  A potential ISIS holocaust is brewing in Europe while Great Britain’s BBC sponsors the problem and Britain takes very few migrants themselves.
            The BBC has fabricated an alternative reality and advertised the wonderful welfare programs and welcome the Western nations have in store for the violent, uneducated and impoverished Moslem populations.  That gives false hope for millions of people who then provide cover for thousands of terrorists who will use the cover until instructed to attack western targets.
            The BBC gives terrorists a daily review of available infiltration routes and how terrorists can avoid documentation requirements and Hungarian route check points.   Every true desperate migrant wants to get his or her legal papers so that they can become citizens.   But apparently there are thousands of ISIS and other terrorists avoiding the documentation checkpoints and they are getting away with it.
            The BBC advertises to the Islamic nations that they can practice Islamic Sharia law in European countries if they congregate in villages or apartment complexes and frighten the Christian majority away so Islamists can have privacy and cut off the hands of their thieves or execute converts as they please.  Whole areas of Paris are now off-limits to Christians, Jews, and other religious groups.  The French understand the problem but the BBC is ignorant.
            The BBC and the British government have been irresponsible and largely responsible for all the publicity terrorists cherish so much.  For their suicide killings the terrorists say they will have many brides in heaven.  Has anyone wondered why there are so many men and so few women and families migrating to the infidel, demonic Western Nations?   Why all the single men?  Perhaps they have suicide missions?  What better reason?
            It is time for Western Nations to wake up and shut down the voice of terrorism which now is the BBC.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

September 4, Friday will be a down day as many organizations go into cash but pray the October bottom holds. Many advisors still think the USA is immune to the collapse of economies of the developing world, Europe, and the first recession in China since they replaced communism with crony capitalist socialism. We disagree and predict the incompetent Obama administration will put America into a recession under socialist policies that stop fuel pipelines, oppose nuclear energy, and shut down American coal mines.

            We are now in the seasonal period for general construction and new real-estate construction sales.  But once again it is fabricated socialist government propaganda data produced not to inform but as to pretend things are getting better under socialists.
            Nonfarm Private Job creation Aug increased 140K, 70K down from 210K last month.   Nonfarm Public/government and wasteful/ crony job creation Aug 33K up from 5K last month.   Total nonfarm Job creation Aug 173K, was not as good as 215K last month, and primarily crony socialist make-work jobs.
 
September 3, 2015  Do not wait for the American economic news to worsen until much of the coming decline is over because frankly this administration has never been truthful and they would never want to be accused of starting the collapse of American stocks by telling the truth.  If you look back a few months you can confirm we reported the manipulation of Chinese stocks at least a month before anyone else and we pointed out the trading volume was manipulated.  We reported that volume has also been fabricated for either or both of two American indices.  While the S&P and the Russell 2000 averages are supposed to be different the volume for the S&P is always exactly 100 times as high as the Russell 2000.   There is no reason they can’t calculate publicly traded volumes correctly.   High speed intra-private transactions should also be recorded to support potential investigations of corporation manipulations.
            We estimate we have about two weeks of TV commentator obfuscation ahead before a second significant downward correction comes into view.   But we will watch that closely.
            September 2, 2015  Our examination of the five American stock exchanges we follow showed the recent (2nd) minor plunge in prices was on lower volume and while prices took back half the gain from the August 25 to the August 28 level, the cash outflow after August 28 was about 40% of what was seen in the preceding rise from August 25.   That is evidence that the current rally should continue a few more days and perhaps into next week.   On the other hand the analysis of China’s market drop is that it is likely to continue dropping because the bottom did not hold and the rate of cash outflow appears worse.  But the Chinese government manipulates the prices as they wish.  The government is the largest owner in China.