October 2 This was a very interesting day. The market makers were again using higher volatility to shake out novice bears to cover shorts at a loss and to entice bullish novices to buy in now with their belief that the market has bottomed. But the market has not bottomed it is skipping along the recent bottom attempting to bring more buyers into the market before it eventually plummets. The market makers are now short sellers and want the unlucky novice stock buyers to get fully invested because they are the ones who will eventually lead the panic. Short sellers need buyers to eventually panic and sell. Each time the market surges the short sellers short more and more. Ultimately, because the economy is sinking, they will win and the market will crumble. You can tell the bears are in complete control from just looking at the almost linear rise in prices today after the initial short selling. The short sellers were in complete control of stock prices and there was no uncontrolled exuberance allowed. That means the bears are carefully finishing their controlled shorting and coaxing out every bullish novice. At some point soon the buying will dry up and with falling values many hedge funds will run out of liquidity. As stock values plummet, historically those on margin lose everything in the price swings that drop most stocks for brief moments by as much as 70% to 90%.

        U.S. job growth crumbled with August numbers revised down another 37000 and September numbers were down to 142000 from the usual needed 200,000 to 300,000 new hires in a healthy economy.  Factory orders in August fell 1.7% and July numbers were reduced a further 0.2% from the previous report.   This would normally put off a Fed rate height but they already put it off too long.   The Fed should have raise the rate 0.1% this past January and broken the ice while the financial markets were still high.  Fed policies have put the USA in a position similar to 1932 when FDR took a Hover USA recession and converted it into the FDR Great World Depression.  Obama has taken the Bush USA recession and now put the USA and the world on the verge of another complete financial collapse.   Putin is now bombing the good-guys in Syria and leaving ISIS alone.  Israel and Jordan now have the only intelligent, sane, and courageous leaders in that part of the world.  The world is praying for the US to soon elect a new president who is not stupid or a coward so that the USA can lead the world once more.

            October 1   The Wall Street Journal reported that job layoffs surged 44% last month to levels not seen since the month the stock market began to collapse in the Fall of 2008.  New hiring also fell to 200k when 300k is what is needed to maintain full employment just in normal times.  Also record numbers of corporations are announcing layoffs.  The WSJ already had its own layoffs.  During the past month surprise layoffs have been happening even at public and private institutions like science centers as states and municipalities are cutting back and corporations hunker down.  Approximately one in three Americans now personally knows someone who has been recently laid off or fired.  Walmart stores and Nike shoes make the news often now due to their poor quality.  Nike shoes have been falling apart at track meets since at least 2011.  And still their incompetent management has been more focused more on NAMBLA and on changing the American Constitution’s Bill of Rights than they are on their businesses.   So far Nike has not been investigated in the soccer bribery scandal.   Yet soccer athletes and officials use their shoes almost exclusively although they are known to have serious problems.

http://fortune.com/2015/09/28/nike-running-shoes-berlin-marathon/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-preparing-to-cut-hundreds-of-headquarters-jobs-this-week-sources-say-1443655847

http://www.startribune.com/ultra-expensive-running-shoes-not-worth-the-price/330110111/

http://www.phlmetropolis.com/2011/11/the-case-of-the-crumbling-shoes.php

Challenger Job Cuts Sep 93.2% up from 2.9% 

            September 30     While it is still possible that the stock market could set a temporary bottom here and bounce, the broadest NYSE market average and the highly sensitive Russell average have already set lower lows both in price and cash flow.   It seems investors are waiting for a stronger reaction to be certain the extremely loose credit bull market is over.  The market could bounce slightly and cause a temporary mad rush into stocks.  But we estimate that the market will be 10% to 70% lower in January depending on the world economic news which continues to deteriorate.  The uncertainty is caused by the huge amount of Quantitative Easing that hasn’t even begun to be unwound.

            The danger of economic and psychologically crippling terrorism in the USA has increased several folds under Obama and is much worse now than just before the 9-11 attacks.   When Americans go to the ISIS region for other than American government business they should first have their Visas voided and then be given 30 days to appeal in person in a USA courtroom before their citizenship is suspended.   Once their citizenship is suspended they should have to apply through a foreign USA embassy for a temporary visa to return to US authorities to face charges of unauthorized activities to either clear themselves or face a possible prison term or expulsion from the USA.  Under Obama more than 240 Americans have joined the ISIS organization of homicidal terrorist maniacs.

         September 29   The resistance level of the last major bottom was broken yesterday for three of the five stock market cash flow indices we follow.  Yesterday Carl Icahn warned, “History is doomed to repeat itself here.” “I’ve been around a long time. I’ve seen it before, ‘69 ‘74, ‘79. I can tell you ... ’87, 2000 wasn’t pretty, and I think a time is coming that might make some of those times look pretty good.”

      Icahn, who just endorsed Donald Trump’s presidential bid, also commented on the socialist crony capitalist situation in the U.S.  “I love this country, but I sure as hell don’t love a lot of the politicians in it or the CEOs.”  Trump may be “brash,” but he’s willing to say what he believes and he’s willing to say, ‘Hey, this is complete bullshit.’”  

            September 28   A forward-looking gauge of U.S. home sales lost 1.4% in August—further evidence that the US economy has peaked for this dismal Obama economy with its grossly inflated money supply and record bubble stock market.  Any time now we can expect a test of the recent stock market lows.

            Shell has given up on arctic oil drilling finding little oil or gas.  It was a false start after the bluster and competitive threats from Russia’s hapless arctic drilling.  But it turned out to be a complete waste of Shell’s time.  Russia likes to control everything and always spreads itself too thin.  Russia is slowly becoming a radioactive waste dump as its nuclear arsenal disintegrates with age and becomes a national health threat.    It was Ronald Regan who called them the Evil Empire after Russia shot down a fully loaded Japanese passenger plane similar to the way they shot down the Malaysian airplane that flew over the part of the Ukraine that Russia recently invaded.   Russia has not had a successful atomic detonation test since their Empire of Evil imploded.  Putin seems to becoming more reasonable as the third world economies slip into deeper recession and Russia arsenal turns into a heap of radioactive scrap.