Former Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich endorsed Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin, saying other Americans must "in good conscience" do the same. Todd Akin is the Senate candidate who does not think abortions should be subsidized by taxpayers.
See letter to the president
http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/haroldestes.asp
Christians are going to come out in droves in this election. They are worth a 9% last minute swing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=zqncQ85Q1qA
Obama election hype is pure economic manipulation and fakery. Housing prices have not recovered and existing home sales have gone nowhere, see below for the truth. There is no wealth effect except the sickening feeling of wealth being drained away to help ACORN redistribute wealth with free cell phones and food stamps to buy votes. Obama claimed Mitt Romney is taking more PAC money but Obama is lying there too. The Federal Election Commission Thursday showed that in total, Obama so far taken a total of $441.3 million from his intimidated Wall Street robber Barons versus the $283.6 million Romney has raised for his re-election.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing
We can see repeatedly that where Obama announces things as improving, he later shuts his door and revises the old number lower by removing the improvement to adds it to the next report. This is one of the data falsifications we try to remove when we can. He does that so after the news is out the number is corrected so the accumulated error does not grow over time.
Obama kills the showing of 2016 on Fox news. In fact some say Obama started the rumor. HEADS UP FOR THIS SUNDAY NIGHT 9:00 PM…THE DOCUMENTARY OBAMA 2016 will not be on FOX at 9PM EST this Sunday. Obama doesn’t like it.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/08/17/2016-obamas-america-movie-is-disturbingly-necessary/
Photos of recent presidents
http://www.presidentsinuniform.com/
Caterpillar, the world's largest construction equipment maker slashed its 2015 economic forecast Monday, citing weak economic conditions worldwide.
More corporations are revealing whom they make political contributions to. Target Corp. faced a boycott by gay rights groups in 2010 after the company donated $150,000 to a business group supporting Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer who did not support gay marriage. Chick-fil-A faced is boycotted and was condemned by a bi-sexual mayor simply because the entrepreneur did not support gay marriage. No state referendum ever supported gay marriage but the legislators are easily threatened so that is how it is spreading.
People who pay income taxes are slowly beginning to realize that Obama has targeted them to pay for all the "hair brained socialist experiments (like free cell phones), and cozy crony capitalism he is encouraging. Not a single bank president, who bet against his or her own clients, went to prison. Goldman Sacks was given a clean bill of health by Obama after they made a few large contributions to the corrupt gun running Obama administration.
According to the latest data available from the Treasury Department Government, debt securities held by Americans, excluding Ben Bernanke, rose 10.7 percent in the first seven months of this year to $3.61 trillion, compared with a 6.9 percent increase for foreign countries.
To be presidential, Obama must first try to be truthful. Elizabeth Warren, a Mass candidate for Senate, is withholding records that show she claimed Native American ancestry in job applications to get special treatment. This falsification is similar to Obama’s problem. Now Obama’s ATF people claim Bush gave Obama the idea to do the gun running because some of the ATF men who pushed it said it was nothing new for them to catch criminals. The only difference is that Obama-Holden recklessly increased gun running by 100 fold from a tiny sting operation. Market risk has risen enormously as the FED increase in liquidity that helps avoid a downturn makes risk grow because when there is a downturn there will be nothing left to prevent a complete world economic collapse… said Mohamed El-Erian on Squawk Box Friday. All the central banks are in lock step now and that is much more dangerous. Bank of America, the second largest US bank aims to cut 16000 jobs by year's end. Yes, Obama blames Bush for that too because Bush hired Bernanke.
Socialists are too stupid to realize people with money are already establishing residences in other countries to get out of socialist systems. They don’t like socialist dictatorships. Many of them originally came to America to escape socialist robber-morons in the first place. Now for the first time Americans are fleeing Obama’s socialist America and 26 successful people gave up their US citizenship last year. Charlie Chaplan did that in the last century.
The "D" word refers to economic "depression" as when Obama said Bush put us into a "Depression" well before the run on the bank that Senator Dodd started by announcing that a California bank was going to fail. Together Obama and Dodd (on the Senate Banking Commission) did something that no others in the history of America were stupid enough to do. They deliberately undermined confidence in American banks after they both had deliberately undermined the housing industry and the banks by requiring that real estate companies and banks give and have Fannie and Freddie underwrite "Liar Loans" to indigents who could not get home mortgages unless they lied about their income and savings. That is right, if the bank denied a loan because the applicant supplied no proof of income, and the applicant was a minority the bank and realtors became vulnerable to being sued for racial discrimination by the justice Department (now under Obama-Holder). These worthless loans were made into "financial derivatives" that people and institutions invested in. "Liar Loan Obama-Dodd derivatives are what caused the collapse of the American Banks in 2007.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows; Mitt Romney earns 46% of the vote while President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide. The Obama Great Depression would get a lot deeper if he wins.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
China with the world’s fastest economic growth isn’t helping Asia’s hedge funds. The average gain for 395 Asian hedge funds was only 1.6 percent this year through August, the worst of all regions and about half the 3.2 percent average global gain. Something does not compute there. How can that be when they grow at 7.8% even in the worst of time. It implies that China’s economic information is not worth as much as Obama’s.
Mosesdottir said. "Iceland is running out of time. There are parties and corporations like Deutsche Bank, whose market cap is double Iceland’s GDP, that will do anything they can to exchange their offshore kronur into foreign currencies." This is a high level admission that Iceland will continue irresponsible policies and eventually will not honor their debts and issue new currency.
The Ifo institute reported German business confidence unexpectedly fell in September for the fifth straight month in September.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande disagreed over the weekend on when to start joint oversight of the euro area’s banking industry. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to go slowly into the whirlpool of quantitative easing because after 22 years Japan is still being sucked down.
China buys 28 percent of Australia’s mineral exports, and China’s slowdown has hurt Australia. The Aussie currency fell 1.6 percent in the past month even though the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities has risen about 18 percent from its low this year in June but are now falling as hedge funds reduce investments.
China’s stocks continue to decline.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. He does not believe in the American dream because it never was socialism.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y
Emerging markets. The other American markets are essential to the recovery of the world are showing some investor interest but no underlying economic improvement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels. Something has to break loose. This is the week Mitt Romney starts to campaign. Some states are already starting absentee balloting.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Last week
Empire Manufacturing index Sep -10.4 collapsing from -5.9
Current Account Balance Q2 -$117.4B down from -$137.3B better trade balance
Net long-term TIC Flows Jul $67.0B up from $9.3B better investment flow
NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 40 up from 37 better housing index
Housing Starts Aug 750K up 4K from 746K
Building Permits Aug 803K down 9K 812K. Both the above are still down 66% under Obama. At Obama’s rate it will take 20 years to recover housing to before he and Senator Dodd said we were in a depression and tried to create a run on the banks. He has recovered less than 20% of what America lost to home liar mortgages that the leftists pushed and still push.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits
Existing Home Sales Aug 4.82M up from 4.47M but still down 40% under Obama. It will take Obama 16 years to recover housing prices at his current rate.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing
Crude Inventories 09/15 8.534M up significantly from 1.994M some relief should be coming.
Initial Claims 09/15 385K bad up from 382K Obama distortion
Friday
Continuing Claims 09/8 3292K bad up from 3283K Obama distortion
Philadelphia Fed Sep -1.9 survey of manufacturing still tepid -7.1
Leading Indicators Aug -0.1% fell from 0.4%
This Week
Sep 25 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul
Sep 25 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Sep
Sep 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jul
Sep 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/22
Sep 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug
Sep 26 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/22
Sep 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/22
Sep 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/15
Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Aug
Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Aug
Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q2
Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2
Sep 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Income Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Spending Aug
Sep 28 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Aug
Sep 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Sep
Sep 28 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep
Market outlook Sept 25, 2012
The socialists would like to shut down Fox News completely, as they are one of the few who dare to exercise their free speech. In America the socialist-liberals say it is ok to paint the Madonna in dog feces and display it as art, but it is a hate crime in that recent Utube preview to point out that Mohammed took a wife who was only nine years old. The recent unrest is a hate crime against innocent Americans who stand up for the human rights of women and children who are violated and murdered even recently in Canada if they disagree with their husband or father. So far MSNBC still refuses to show the truth about what is going on in the Islamist world.
The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or a blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues again it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Resumption of the bull stock market is possible but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession and a market that eventually declined for the last 22 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Well the Baltic Dry Index blip up just stopped. China may not have hit bottom yet. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets followed were mixed last night. China down -0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.0%, India up 0.1%, Seoul down -0.6%, Taiwan down -0.4%, Japan up 0.5%
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of 0.1% to –1.2%.
American market futures are up about 0.2% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Mad Money’s Cramer said buy Google instead of Apple. Apple already is missing sales goals and they unloaded quite a bit on Wall Mart, which is not their customer market. Jim Cramer thinks Apple made very big mistake taking the free Google map application off I5 and compared it to when Microsoft pushed their own inferior products on their customers and was slammed with anti-trust suits. Apple will not beat I4 sales with inferior I5 applications and will face anti-trust action because they are abusing the court system with their anti-competitive lawsuits. Attorneys not technologists now run Apple. The lawyers will get a lot richer than the shareholders. Japanese companies are struggling to reduce defects in I5 screens that include the new technology and were unable to fill shipments before the iPhone debut. Apple, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard all fell Monday, leading Wall Street lower. Apple, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard all have made the same types of mistakes. They cut off their noses to spite their face.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
To be more presidential Romney must be smarter and stop apologizing and start taking the offensive. Romney’s advisors are to blame and seem to be incompetent or working for Obama. Jimmy and Obama are tied now as the most miserable presidents in American history. Jimmy Carter invented the misery index, which is equal to the sum of the percent unemployed plus the percent inflation rate. Like Obama, Jimmy Carter tried to destroy the American hydrocarbon industry and exacerbated both unemployment and inflation in that process. Misery in America is expected to increase substantially if Obama gets a second term. Think of what Winston Churchill said. “The inherent vice of capitalism is the uneven division of blessings, while the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal division of misery.”
The "D" word refers to when Obama said Bush put us into a "Depression" well before the run on the bank Senator Dodd started by announcing that a California bank was going to fail. Together Obama and Dodd (on the Senate Banking Commission) did something that no others in the history of America did. They deliberately undermined confidence in America after they both had deliberately undermined the housing industry by requiring that real estate companies give and that Fannie and Freddie underwrite "Liar Loans" to indigents who could not get home mortgages unless they lied about their income and savings. That is right, if the bank denied a loan because the applicant supplied no proof of income, and the applicant was a minority member, the bank and realtors were and still are vulnerable to being sued for racial discrimination by the justice Department (under Obama-Holder).
The long run is not good for gold. Keep in mind that gold dropped from over $800/oz to under $300/oz once Jimmy Carter was voted out of office in 1980 and it did not rise significantly again until after 2000. We believe gold will have a choppy rise and is already overpriced for the short run because it gapped up too fast and lacks underlying support. Also, if Obama is re-elected the world may go off the dollar standard and US inflation will then have no effect on the price of gold and America could just go broke. Then Americans will all have the equal distribution of wealth that Obama is creating now.
The mayor of Chicago yesterday sought a court order to force teachers back into classrooms. The Sept. 16 decision by the union to continue Chicago’s first public- school strike in a quarter century means 350,000 students will be out of class for at least a sixth day.
The Fed’s will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month, while leaving the previous QE2 and ‘operation twist’ bond buying programs in place. In effect the Fed will be buying the mortgage-backed securities from current holders, primarily banks, and the FED hopes they will move the money into areas that give the economy a boost. But the problem is that it does nothing to liquidate the bankrupt mortgage overhang. In fact the overhang is going to be hidden in the FED and not liquidated. The extra liquidity will obviously go into inflation which is the way US WWII debt was liquidated in the late 1940’s and the Lyndon Johnson’s war debt was liquidated in the 1970’s with Jimmy Carter’s stagflation. Stagflation is the likely consequence if Obama remains in office. Stagflation in the 1970‘s resulted in a stagnant economy and a volatile but stagnant stock market.
Obama Stagflation is predicted if Obama wins the election although many think community activist Obama is not nearly as bright as the nuclear engineer Jimmy Carter so it could be a lot worse. We may also have a Hostage crisis too if Obama does not wake up soon and smell the coffee.
A slowdown is now seen in U.S. manufacturing with Parker Hannifin profits turning down. Earnings are in net beginning to peak.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows; Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote while President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
Carrefour SA (CA) and Tesco Plc (TSCO) are faced with falling profits and consumer spending. India estimates retailer losses will exceed at least $500 million over three to five years in the world’s second-most populous nation. Such investment could pose a challenge for the European retailers, which are struggling amid the region’s debt crisis. Wal-Mart and Lowes are already withdrawing from China. Blackouts continue across cash strapped India.
Squabbling continues among European governments over the next steps needed to overcome the sovereign debt crisis as Spanish 10-year bond yields to their lowest in five months. The Sept. 14 European Union finance ministers meeting in Nicosia deadlocked over the timetable for a more unified EU banking sector as the ministers bickered over the terms of bailout requests and the role of the European Central Bank.
Europe’s protracted debt crisis, a U.S. jobless rate stuck above 8 percent and a slowdown in China are damping demand for Asian goods and commodities, prompting Hong Kong’s Trade Development Council to cut the Singapore’s export forecast today. The weakening global outlook is grim as the Obama cliff approaches.
Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984 when they say they started what we called quantitative easing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#symbol=^n225;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. He does not believe in the American dream because it never was socialism.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Yesterday
Empire Manufacturing index Sep -10.4 collapsing from -5.9
Today
Sep 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q2
Sep 18 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jul
Sep 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Sep
This Week
Sep 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/15
Sep 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug
Sep 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Aug
Sep 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Aug
Sep 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/15
Sep 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/15
Sep 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/8
Sep 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Sep
Sep 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Aug
Market outlook Sept 18, 2012
Apple got Wal-Mart back orders and therefore set record sales the first day for the I-phone.
The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or a blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues again it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Resumption of the bull stock market is possible soon but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession after the market almost tripled in five years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing that could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see bulk trade peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote and most vote for their Mad Hatter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets followed were down sharply last night. China down –0.9%, Hong Kong down –0.1%, India down –0.3%, Taiwan down –0.4%, Japan down –0.4%
European markets are down sharply half way through their day in a range of –0.2% to –1.2%.
American market futures are down about -0.1% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
The long run is not good for gold. Keep in mind that gold dropped from over $800/oz to under $300/oz once Jimmy Carter was voted out of office in 1980 and it did not rise significantly again until after 2000. We believe gold will have a choppy rise and is already overpriced for the short run because it gapped up too fast and lacks underlying support. Also, if Obama is re-elected the world may go off the dollar standard and US inflation will then have no effect on the price of gold and America could just go broke. Then Americans will all have the equal distribution of wealth that Obama is creating now.
The mayor of Chicago yesterday sought a court order to force teachers back into classrooms. The Sept. 16 decision by the union to continue Chicago’s first public- school strike in a quarter century means 350,000 students will be out of class for at least a sixth day.
The Fed’s will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month, while leaving the previous QE2 and ‘operation twist’ bond buying programs in place. In effect the Fed will be buying the mortgage-backed securities from current holders, primarily banks, and the FED hopes they will move the money into areas that give the economy a boost. But the problem is that it does nothing to liquidate the bankrupt mortgage overhang. In fact the overhang is going to be hidden in the FED and not liquidated. The extra liquidity will obviously go into inflation which is the way US WWII debt was liquidated in the late 1940’s and the Lyndon Johnson’s war debt was liquidated in the 1970’s with Jimmy Carter’s stagflation. Stagflation is the likely consequence if Obama remains in office. Stagflation in the 1970‘s resulted in a stagnant economy and a volatile but stagnant stock market.
Obama Stagflation is predicted if Obama wins the election although many think community activist Obama is not nearly as bright as the nuclear engineer Jimmy Carter so it could be a lot worse. We may also have a Hostage crisis too if Obama does not wake up soon and smell the coffee.
A slowdown is now seen in U.S. manufacturing with Parker Hannifin profits turning down. Earnings are in net beginning to peak.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows; Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote while President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
Carrefour SA (CA) and Tesco Plc (TSCO) are faced with falling profits and consumer spending. India estimates retailer losses will exceed at least $500 million over three to five years in the world’s second-most populous nation. Such investment could pose a challenge for the European retailers, which are struggling amid the region’s debt crisis. Wal-Mart and Lowes are already withdrawing from China. Blackouts continue across cash strapped India.
Squabbling continues among European governments over the next steps needed to overcome the sovereign debt crisis as Spanish 10-year bond yields to their lowest in five months. The Sept. 14 European Union finance ministers meeting in Nicosia deadlocked over the timetable for a more unified EU banking sector as the ministers bickered over the terms of bailout requests and the role of the European Central Bank.
Europe’s protracted debt crisis, a U.S. jobless rate stuck above 8 percent and a slowdown in China are damping demand for Asian goods and commodities, prompting Hong Kong’s Trade Development Council to cut the Singapore’s export forecast today. The weakening global outlook is grim as the Obama cliff approaches.
Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984 when they say they started what we called quantitative easing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#symbol=^n225;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. He does not believe in the American dream because it never was socialism.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Yesterday
Empire Manufacturing index Sep -10.4 collapsing from -5.9
Today
Sep 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q2
Sep 18 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jul
Sep 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Sep
This Week
Sep 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/15
Sep 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug
Sep 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Aug
Sep 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Aug
Sep 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/15
Sep 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/15
Sep 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/8
Sep 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Sep
Sep 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Aug
Market outlook Sept 18, 2012
Apple got Wal-Mart back orders and therefore set record sales the first day for the I-phone.
The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or a blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues again it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Resumption of the bull stock market is possible soon but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession after the market almost tripled in five years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing that could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see bulk trade peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote and most vote for their Mad Hatter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets followed were down sharply last night. China down –0.9%, Hong Kong down –0.1%, India down –0.3%, Taiwan down –0.4%, Japan down –0.4%
European markets are down sharply half way through their day in a range of –0.2% to –1.2%.
American market futures are down about -0.1% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Fed undertakes QE3 Scheme with $40 billion in monthly purchases of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month in a third round of quantitative easing. It seeks to reduce the interest rate of US debt to allow more deficit spending as the financial cliff approaches. The inflation target level was increased to 3% from 2.5%. Commodities and gold spiked up. The Dow Industrials hit the levels just before the 2008 collapse but the DOW rails are still under their sell signal of August 2011. Ben Bernanke yesterday warned that bank investors would suffer much more in the future indicating they could have to be nationalized with Obama’s continuing policies. Former FED member Kevin Warsh this morning said we are approaching a tipping point of losing control and an economic collapse of financial and stock markets. He said reversing or undoing FED policies could be much worse than the benefits.
Kevin Warsh married a billionaire and he only holds 1 to $2million in his name, which is not much. Ben Bernanke’s net worth is now estimated to be only 1.2 Million and his salary is $180,000/yr. That says Ben Bernanke has done quite poorly predicting the economy for his own investments. That information is public knowledge on the web. The economic cliff could be kicked 6 months down the road before Congress adjourns. Obama uses one spending program after another and does nothing to create an incentive for people to get off the dole.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EZQvSCGaJI
Christian socialism in America and Europe is compassionate but not economically sound. The pilgrims and dozens of other experiments failed and returned to free enterprise. The Amish today survive by trading with their neighbors but at a substantially lower economic value. The Atheistic socialism of Hitler, Stalin and Mao used genocide for control, as do the most non Christian-Judeo religions of the Mid-East. Obama’s basis for re-distribution of wealth through taxation, why that economy fails, and why people starve to death in this world under religious and secular socialism is shown in the above clip.
Ben Bernanke has already put every American adult and child another $7000 in debt with his QE policies and will now increase it at about $250/month.
Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y
Manhattan’s apartment vacancy rate rose in August to its highest level in three years as tenants moved out of the market in the busiest time for leasing, according to Citi Habitats.
The dollar weakened to a seven- month low and Treasuries rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will unveil more stimulus today.
Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending.
Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record; a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
Chicago teacher’s strike rallies Democrats to go after the teacher unions in defense of American children.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are only including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
The Moscow-based Bank Rossii raised the refinancing rate to 8.25 percent after Russian inflation rose to 6.3%.
European shares fell in morning trading on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting at which it could decide on a further round of quantitative easing.
Germany’s top constitutional court said euro-area rescue fund requires legislative approval for each allotment and is not a free checkbook. The ruling is that the country’s 190 billion-euro ($245 billion) contribution can’t be increased without legislative approval for each allotment. Germany’s bonds immediately dropped, sending 10-year yields to the highest in more than two months. Spain’s 10-year securities led gainers among the euro- region’s lower-rated sovereigns amid optimism the 500 billion- euro ($646 billion) European Stability Mechanism will help stem the spread of the region’s debt crisis.
The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984. Notice that the DJI was manipulated so much in the past to make it look good that they can no longer show much of its historical data. One way they do it is by replacing stocks when they peak with new stocks that are growing fast and deceiving investors who think the market made people a lot of money. But all the people who lost money leave the market. When you include commissions the market is very close to a zero-sum game on average.
France faces an economy that hasn’t grown in three quarters and unemployment at a 13-year high. The French president is also struggling to plug a 30 billion euros budget hole next year
China’s Communist Party threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Trade Balance Jul -$42.0B got slightly worse -$41.9B
MBA Mortgage Index 09/08 11.1% wide swings indicate manipulation -2.5%
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug 0.4% spike in price increases from -0.3% due to energy
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% stable -0.4%
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.7% major inflation increase -0.2%
Crude Inventories 09/08 1.994M good supply increase -7.426M
Sep 13
Initial Claims 09/08 382K up from 365K
Continuing Claims 09/01 3283K down from 3322K
PPI Aug 1.7% prices up from 0.3%
Core PPI without energyAug 0.2% down slightly 0.4%
FOMC Rate Decision Sep 0.25% no change 0.25%
Treasury Budget Aug -$190.5B deficit surges from -$134.1B
Today
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 14, 2012
Bernanke gave Obama an election boost. The market is not following his words but loves his music.
The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or as blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Resumption of the bull stock market is indicated but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession after the market almost tripled in five years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The USA is still the world’s greatest importer and thus the engine of the world. The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing because never before did America have a candidate that did not know that such talk could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see it peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote (if you wish to live).
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets followed the USA up last night. China up 0.6%, Hong Kong up 2.9%, India up 2.5%, Japan up 1.8%.
European markets are up half way through their day in a range of +7% to –2%.
American market futures are up about 0.5% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EZQvSCGaJI
Christian socialism in America and Europe is compassionate but not economically sound. The pilgrims and dozens of other experiments failed and returned to free enterprise. The Amish today survive by trading with their neighbors but at a substantially lower economic value. The Atheistic socialism of Hitler, Stalin and Mao used genocide for control, as do the most non Christian-Judeo religions of the Mid-East. Obama’s basis for re-distribution of wealth through taxation, why that economy fails, and why people starve to death in this world under religious and secular socialism is shown in the above clip.
Ben Bernanke has already put every American adult and child another $7000 in debt with his QE policies and will now increase it at about $250/month.
Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y
Manhattan’s apartment vacancy rate rose in August to its highest level in three years as tenants moved out of the market in the busiest time for leasing, according to Citi Habitats.
The dollar weakened to a seven- month low and Treasuries rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will unveil more stimulus today.
Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending.
Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record; a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
Chicago teacher’s strike rallies Democrats to go after the teacher unions in defense of American children.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are only including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
The Moscow-based Bank Rossii raised the refinancing rate to 8.25 percent after Russian inflation rose to 6.3%.
European shares fell in morning trading on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting at which it could decide on a further round of quantitative easing.
Germany’s top constitutional court said euro-area rescue fund requires legislative approval for each allotment and is not a free checkbook. The ruling is that the country’s 190 billion-euro ($245 billion) contribution can’t be increased without legislative approval for each allotment. Germany’s bonds immediately dropped, sending 10-year yields to the highest in more than two months. Spain’s 10-year securities led gainers among the euro- region’s lower-rated sovereigns amid optimism the 500 billion- euro ($646 billion) European Stability Mechanism will help stem the spread of the region’s debt crisis.
The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984. Notice that the DJI was manipulated so much in the past to make it look good that they can no longer show much of its historical data. One way they do it is by replacing stocks when they peak with new stocks that are growing fast and deceiving investors who think the market made people a lot of money. But all the people who lost money leave the market. When you include commissions the market is very close to a zero-sum game on average.
France faces an economy that hasn’t grown in three quarters and unemployment at a 13-year high. The French president is also struggling to plug a 30 billion euros budget hole next year
China’s Communist Party threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Trade Balance Jul -$42.0B got slightly worse -$41.9B
MBA Mortgage Index 09/08 11.1% wide swings indicate manipulation -2.5%
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug 0.4% spike in price increases from -0.3% due to energy
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% stable -0.4%
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.7% major inflation increase -0.2%
Crude Inventories 09/08 1.994M good supply increase -7.426M
Sep 13
Initial Claims 09/08 382K up from 365K
Continuing Claims 09/01 3283K down from 3322K
PPI Aug 1.7% prices up from 0.3%
Core PPI without energyAug 0.2% down slightly 0.4%
FOMC Rate Decision Sep 0.25% no change 0.25%
Treasury Budget Aug -$190.5B deficit surges from -$134.1B
Today
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 14, 2012
Bernanke gave Obama an election boost. The market is not following his words but loves his music.
The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or as blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Resumption of the bull stock market is indicated but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession after the market almost tripled in five years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The USA is still the world’s greatest importer and thus the engine of the world. The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing because never before did America have a candidate that did not know that such talk could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see it peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote (if you wish to live).
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets followed the USA up last night. China up 0.6%, Hong Kong up 2.9%, India up 2.5%, Japan up 1.8%.
European markets are up half way through their day in a range of +7% to –2%.
American market futures are up about 0.5% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Now Iran is preparing an atomic bomb for their planned holocaust while Obama snubs Israel that is their prime target. This is what happens when there is a in America apologizing to those who say convert or die to Christians, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists, and people of all other faiths everywhere they spread their hatred of both the West and East. They hate the eastern atheists and homosexuals even more. In Iraq they are now rounding up and killing puppies (their label for gays) the way Hitler did. Yemen is flaring up today.
Apple announced their iPhone yesterday and as expected brought their technology up to where their competition was 1.5 years ago. Apple has always been considered a leader among toy/game manufacturers for children and never seriously broke into the computer market of business applications. Apple game players and tweeters like to say the PC is now obsolete but that is nonsense, and anyone with business sense knows computers not toys are the future. Apple will go the way of Commodore unless they get back to computers as their core. While income this year may top last year it is because most of it occurred in the first two quarters this year with the last product designed by Steve Jobs. Apple iPhone 4 sales are now next to non-existent and clones of iPhone 5 will hit the Asian market almost immediately since the iPhone 5 has no new technology. Investors have to compare the last two quarters of 2012 with the last two quarters of 2011 to see the disaster at Apple since Steve Jobs passed away. Next it is anticipated that Apple will enter Nintendo’s TV-based market and games. Apple never seriously broke into the computer market of business applications.
Moslem extremists attempted to storm the U.S. Embassy in Yemen’s after four people were killed in an attack on an American diplomatic mission in Libya.
Manhattan’s apartment vacancy rate rose in August to its highest level in three years as tenants moved out of the market in the busiest time for leasing, according to Citi Habitats.
The dollar weakened to a seven- month low and Treasuries rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will unveil more stimulus today.
Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending.
Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record; a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
Chicago teacher’s strike rallies Democrats to go after the teacher unions in defense of American children.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are only including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
European shares fell in morning trading on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting at which it could decide on a further round of quantitative easing.
Germany’s top constitutional court said euro-area rescue fund requires legislative approval for each allotment and is not a free checkbook. The ruling is that the country’s 190 billion-euro ($245 billion) contribution can’t be increased without legislative approval for each allotment. Germany’s bonds immediately dropped, sending 10-year yields to the highest in more than two months. Spain’s 10-year securities led gainers among the euro- region’s lower-rated sovereigns amid optimism the 500 billion- euro ($646 billion) European Stability Mechanism will help stem the spread of the region’s debt crisis.
The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984. Notice that the DJI was manipulated so much in the past to make it look good that they can no longer show much of its historical data. One way they do it is by replacing stocks when they peak with new stocks that are growing fast and deceiving investors who think the market made people a lot of money. But all the people who lost money leave the market. When you include commissions the market is very close to a zero-sum game on average.
France faces an economy that hasn’t grown in three quarters and unemployment at a 13-year high. The French president is also struggling to plug a 30 billion euros budget hole next year
China’s Communist Party threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Sep 10
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Sep 11
Trade Balance Jul -$42.0B got slightly worse -$41.9B
Sep 12
MBA Mortgage Index 09/08 11.1% wide swings indicate manipulation -2.5%
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug 0.4% spike in price increases from -0.3% due to energy
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% stable -0.4%
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.7% major inflation increase -0.2%
Crude Inventories 09/08 1.994M good supply increase -7.426M
Today
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
This Week
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 13, 2012
The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again as rails fail to match industrials.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The USA is still the world’s greatest importer and thus the engine of the world. The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low and gets even lower. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing because never before did America have such a stupid candidate that did not know that stupid talk could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see it peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote (if you wish to live).
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were mixed last night. China down -0.8%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1%, Japan up 0.4%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0% to –0.8%.
American market futures are down about -0.3% in after-hour trading at 8:30 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Moslem extremists attempted to storm the U.S. Embassy in Yemen’s after four people were killed in an attack on an American diplomatic mission in Libya.
Manhattan’s apartment vacancy rate rose in August to its highest level in three years as tenants moved out of the market in the busiest time for leasing, according to Citi Habitats.
The dollar weakened to a seven- month low and Treasuries rose amid speculation the Federal Reserve will unveil more stimulus today.
Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending.
Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record; a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
Chicago teacher’s strike rallies Democrats to go after the teacher unions in defense of American children.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are only including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
European shares fell in morning trading on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting at which it could decide on a further round of quantitative easing.
Germany’s top constitutional court said euro-area rescue fund requires legislative approval for each allotment and is not a free checkbook. The ruling is that the country’s 190 billion-euro ($245 billion) contribution can’t be increased without legislative approval for each allotment. Germany’s bonds immediately dropped, sending 10-year yields to the highest in more than two months. Spain’s 10-year securities led gainers among the euro- region’s lower-rated sovereigns amid optimism the 500 billion- euro ($646 billion) European Stability Mechanism will help stem the spread of the region’s debt crisis.
The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984. Notice that the DJI was manipulated so much in the past to make it look good that they can no longer show much of its historical data. One way they do it is by replacing stocks when they peak with new stocks that are growing fast and deceiving investors who think the market made people a lot of money. But all the people who lost money leave the market. When you include commissions the market is very close to a zero-sum game on average.
France faces an economy that hasn’t grown in three quarters and unemployment at a 13-year high. The French president is also struggling to plug a 30 billion euros budget hole next year
China’s Communist Party threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.
Sep 10
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Sep 11
Trade Balance Jul -$42.0B got slightly worse -$41.9B
Sep 12
MBA Mortgage Index 09/08 11.1% wide swings indicate manipulation -2.5%
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug 0.4% spike in price increases from -0.3% due to energy
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.2% stable -0.4%
Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.7% major inflation increase -0.2%
Crude Inventories 09/08 1.994M good supply increase -7.426M
Today
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
This Week
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 13, 2012
The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again as rails fail to match industrials.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out.
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The USA is still the world’s greatest importer and thus the engine of the world. The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low and gets even lower. When Obama began his campaign in 2006 he said George Bush already had the economy in a depression. Never before had anyone said such a thing because never before did America have such a stupid candidate that did not know that stupid talk could unsettle an economy. Look at 5 years and you see it peaked when Obama was nominated in 2008 and got worse with Obama’s socialist redistribution policies that give no incentive for most of his voting constituency to work. Socialism cannot be stopped when the people who pay no taxes and have no skin in free enterprise… when their voting block is more than 50% of the voters. Consider also that fewer than 60% of working people usually vote. In socialist dictatorships 98% vote (if you wish to live).
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were mixed last night. China down -0.8%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1%, Japan up 0.4%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0% to –0.8%.
American market futures are down about -0.3% in after-hour trading at 8:30 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
September 11, is another day that lives in infamy. More people died in that Jihad attack than died in the sneak attack at Pearl Harbor that brought America into WWII. Today on Squawk Box, Ken Langone said that “If Obama wins we (America) will hit rock bottom by 2016. ”But he said we would be strong again. Dick Grasso said we just hit bottom. He said the USA can’t even comply now with Sarbanes Oxley and will lose our credit rating if we do not get the spending under control. Both said the teacher’s unions are destroying the public educational system in America and most of the teachers know that and want the unions reformed.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record; a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
Mitt Romney would drop government spending to 20% of the GDP as it was under Reagan. Only by controlling the spending will America get the debt and the percentage of freeloaders under control. We need a Constitutional limit on taxes. There were no income taxes of any kind until more than 100 years after the constitution was written.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
China’s Communist Party is threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to support or suspend the 500 billion-euro ($639 billion) European Stability Mechanism on Sept. 12.
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Precious metals exchange-traded funds fared well in August as funds and investors anticipate the Obama Ponzi scheme will continue to flood the world with dollars.
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Today
Sep 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul
This Week
Sep 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/08
Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Sep 12 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul
Sep 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 11, 2012
Rasmusen predicts an Obama win in November. Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending. Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster. The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again. The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984.
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out. During the 2008 campaign Senator Obama said America was in a depression and Senator Dodd followed that irresponsible claim by causing a run on a California bank that collapsed the bank. Obama likes to say the stock market has risen since he took office but the truth is the market collapsed the most just after the morons held their 2008 convention but fell the fastest starting election day when the morons were elected. It cratered one month after Obama was sworn in but the stock market collapse correlated with when Wall Street realized the morons would win the election. The stock market is roughly a six month leading indicator but the morons don’t know that either. If the morons look good this week it would mean the market is ready to collapse again in anticipation of a depression of FDR’s length and depth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. Look at 5 years and you see it got worse after Obama was elected.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China down -0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.2%, India up 0.5%, S.Korea down -0.2%, Japan down -0.7%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0% to –0.5%.
American market futures are up at about 0.4% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
In what is usually a strong month for funds buying gold, the price of gold and silver rallied again yesterday. Speculation about more money printing by central banks helped to spur interest in precious metals, which are regarded by many investors as a buffer against inflation. But is demand for the underlying metal as high as the demand for the stocks? The impoverished in India are some of the biggest buyers.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer AIG, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States. The problem is can Apple accelerate sales enough to maintain its growth rate. If last year you grew 100% from 100 to 200, this year you need to grow twice as much (200 growth from 200 to 400). We believe that is not possible because they only are including re-treads of Steve Job’s creation. Apple’s reliance on this single product leaves Cook little margin for error. The Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance. Jim Cramer said do not buy Apple now, buy it at $560 (56 times ten).
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
Mitt Romney would drop government spending to 20% of the GDP as it was under Reagan. Only by controlling the spending will America get the debt and the percentage of freeloaders under control. We need a Constitutional limit on taxes. There were no income taxes of any kind until more than 100 years after the constitution was written.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
China’s Communist Party is threatened by the economic slowdown that costs jobs. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier a rate that would support hyperinflation if allowed to continue.
Cost-cutting by Japanese and Chinese companies is dragging on wages, resulting in weaker consumer demand and a stronger case for creating inflation.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to support or suspend the 500 billion-euro ($639 billion) European Stability Mechanism on Sept. 12.
Emerging markets. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Precious metals exchange-traded funds fared well in August as funds and investors anticipate the Obama Ponzi scheme will continue to flood the world with dollars.
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Jul plunged -$3.3B after previously increasing at a rate of $9.8B
Today
Sep 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul
This Week
Sep 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/08
Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Sep 12 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul
Sep 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 11, 2012
Rasmusen predicts an Obama win in November. Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending. Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster. The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again. The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984.
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out. During the 2008 campaign Senator Obama said America was in a depression and Senator Dodd followed that irresponsible claim by causing a run on a California bank that collapsed the bank. Obama likes to say the stock market has risen since he took office but the truth is the market collapsed the most just after the morons held their 2008 convention but fell the fastest starting election day when the morons were elected. It cratered one month after Obama was sworn in but the stock market collapse correlated with when Wall Street realized the morons would win the election. The stock market is roughly a six month leading indicator but the morons don’t know that either. If the morons look good this week it would mean the market is ready to collapse again in anticipation of a depression of FDR’s length and depth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. Look at 5 years and you see it got worse after Obama was elected.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China down -0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.2%, India up 0.5%, S.Korea down -0.2%, Japan down -0.7%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0% to –0.5%.
American market futures are up at about 0.4% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Monday, September 10, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way.
U.S. technology companies have pushed their dividends to the highest level on record, a signal to investors that profit growth in the industry is slowing.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer American International Group, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States, which means Taiwan will have to wait for around 2-3 months for the new-generation iPhone to arrive at stores. Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance.
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
Mitt Romney would drop government spending to 20% of the GDP as it was under Reagan. Only by controlling the spending will America get the debt and the percentage of freeloaders under control. We need a Constitutional limit on taxes. There were no income taxes of any kind until more than 100 years after the constitution was written.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
World stock markets sagged Monday, ahead of a meeting by Federal Reserve policy makers who are expected to announce new plans to stimulate a sluggish U.S. economy.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to support or suspend the 500 billion-euro ($639 billion) European Stability Mechanism on Sept. 12.
Emerging markets will continue to suffer unless Obama is given the heave-ho. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Last Week
ISM Index Aug: The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 49.6 in August indicating that manufacturing shrank for a third month in August in the longest decline since the recession ended in 2009, threatening to deprive the world of the world’s largest economy of a driver of growth.
Construction Spending Jul fell -0.9% for what is usually the best month for construction.
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 09/01 fell -2.5 percent indicating fewer mortgages and lower future home sales.
Productivity Q2 2.2% up from 1.6% last month
Unit Labor Costs - Rev Q2 1.5% revised down from previously reported 1.7% improvement
Challenger Job Cuts Aug -36.9% down from -44.5% last month
ADP Employment Change Aug 201K improved from 173K
Initial Claims 09/01 365K improved from 374K
Continuing Claims 08/25 3322K got worse from what was first reported 3316K
ISM Services Aug 53.7 improved slightly from 52.6
Crude Inventories 09/01 -7.426M fell sharply from 3.778M
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 96K much worse than 163K last time
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug 103K much worse than 172K last time
Unemployment Rate Aug 8.1% down from 8.3% due to people giving up looking for work.
Hourly Earnings Aug 0.0% down from 0.1% last time
Average Workweek Aug 34.4 down from 34.5 last time
Today
Sep 10 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul
This Week
Sep 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul
Sep 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/08
Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Sep 12 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul
Sep 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 10, 2012
Rasmusen predicts an Obama win in November. Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending. Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster. The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again. The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984.
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. Look at 5 years and you see it got worse after Obama was elected. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were flat last night. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.1%, S.Korea down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0.1% to –0.6%.
American market futures are down at about -0.2% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Federal Reserve easing cannot spur a faltering recovery it can only extend a recession by first distorting investment from housing and business growth to the lucrative financing government debt. Second the debt extension makes debt financing the number one government focus to avoid national in solvency. Anyone who thinks big government solves problems is an idiot. Big government debt financing becomes the focus of banking to the detriment of the economy.
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell most of its stake ($18 Billion) in insurer American International Group, making the government a minority investor for the first time since it rescued the company
Apple Inc, is scheduled to release the new product on Sept 13 in the United States, which means Taiwan will have to wait for around 2-3 months for the new-generation iPhone to arrive at stores. Chinese cloned the iPhone 5 called the called the "Goophone i5", in advance.
BP is in advanced talks to sell a group of oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico to Plains Exploration & Production Co.
Mitt Romney would drop government spending to 20% of the GDP as it was under Reagan. Only by controlling the spending will America get the debt and the percentage of freeloaders under control. We need a Constitutional limit on taxes. There were no income taxes of any kind until more than 100 years after the constitution was written.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. The Obama announced Great Depression would get a lot deeper if it turns out that way. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
World stock markets sagged Monday, ahead of a meeting by Federal Reserve policy makers who are expected to announce new plans to stimulate a sluggish U.S. economy.
From the $2.3 trillion pumped into the U.S. by the Fed since 2008 to record-low interest rates in the euro zone, U.K. and Japan, nothing has prevented the world’s economy from slowing this year. Foreign-exchange traders are signaling they expect little improvement any time soon, and that’s a change from the past.
The rebound in China’s inflation, excess capacity in some industries and banks’ bad debt risks from past monetary easing underscore the potential cost of ramping up stimulus efforts.
Hobbled by the economic slowdown, Europe's automobile market has shrunk, causing some firms to close their factories. The influx of imported cars in China are piling on top of already high inventories and causing price wars.
"I can’t be optimistic that investor sentiment will improve rapidly and the world’s economy will pick up," Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $14 billion as the manager of the biggest mutual fund at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo,
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to support or suspend the 500 billion-euro ($639 billion) European Stability Mechanism on Sept. 12.
Emerging markets will continue to suffer unless Obama is given the heave-ho. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels.
The Alternative minimum tax is not being adjusted for inflation. According to the IRS, if Congress doesn’t act to prevent the $92 billion tax increase from inflation, the number of households facing the alternative tax after the fiscal cliff would increase to 32.9 million from 4.4 million.
Last Week
ISM Index Aug: The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 49.6 in August indicating that manufacturing shrank for a third month in August in the longest decline since the recession ended in 2009, threatening to deprive the world of the world’s largest economy of a driver of growth.
Construction Spending Jul fell -0.9% for what is usually the best month for construction.
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 09/01 fell -2.5 percent indicating fewer mortgages and lower future home sales.
Productivity Q2 2.2% up from 1.6% last month
Unit Labor Costs - Rev Q2 1.5% revised down from previously reported 1.7% improvement
Challenger Job Cuts Aug -36.9% down from -44.5% last month
ADP Employment Change Aug 201K improved from 173K
Initial Claims 09/01 365K improved from 374K
Continuing Claims 08/25 3322K got worse from what was first reported 3316K
ISM Services Aug 53.7 improved slightly from 52.6
Crude Inventories 09/01 -7.426M fell sharply from 3.778M
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 96K much worse than 163K last time
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug 103K much worse than 172K last time
Unemployment Rate Aug 8.1% down from 8.3% due to people giving up looking for work.
Hourly Earnings Aug 0.0% down from 0.1% last time
Average Workweek Aug 34.4 down from 34.5 last time
Today
Sep 10 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul
This Week
Sep 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul
Sep 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/08
Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Sep 12 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul
Sep 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/08
Sep 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/01
Sep 13 8:30 AM PPI Aug
Sep 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Sep 13 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep
Sep 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM CPI Aug
Sep 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Sep 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Sep 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep
Sep 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Market outlook Sept 10, 2012
Rasmusen predicts an Obama win in November. Moodys said they are preparing to reduce the US credit rating if America does not get control of spending. Latest economic indicators show we are again losing jobs faster. The DJI-DJT is diverging bearishly again. The EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will decline to Japans level in less than 10 years. We do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine. But as we said before the Japanese markets rose 250% before people realized they had borrowed 20years of their future with their Ponzi scheme. Japan’s stock market today is lower than it was in 1984.
There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues it could happen within the month. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that it shot up on half normal volume and still wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. Look at 5 years and you see it got worse after Obama was elected. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were flat last night. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.1%, S.Korea down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%.
European markets are down half way through their day in a range of +0.1% to –0.6%.
American market futures are down at about -0.2% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Squawk Box has been frequently censoring some of commentators the last two days by cutting the microphones when they say anything considered too critical of Obama. Apparently MSNBC/Pravda has become too reactionary. This is the first censorship the USA has ever seen in over 50 years. Dick Morris, former advisor to President Clinton, yesterday warned that America and especially the Democrats couldn’t afford four more years of Obama. He said, “After eight years of Obama, Democrats would not be able to get elected for 100 years.”
http://www.inquisitr.com/322412/monica-lewinskys-former-rabbi-at-democratic-national-convention-after-bill-clintons-speech/
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/332238
Obama likes to say the stock market has risen since he took office but the truth is the market collapsed right after his 2008 convention. Earlier Obama had declared that we were in a Bush depression and Senator Dodd spread the rumors of impending runs on California banks. The stock market had fallen half way by Obama’s Election Day 2008. It continued to fall for a month after. In other words the entire collapse of the market started when Obama was nominated. The stock market is a six-month leading indictor. The market anticipated Obama and reflected the transition from Bush to Obama.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/forward-for-communism-is-obamas-new-forward-slogan-really-a-coincidence/
The Democrat Convention fear and smear politics are revealing. Corruption is why privacy is so important to preserve American liberty. Privacy protects honest Americans from Socialist goons who audit and harass and smear honest Americans with illegitimate subpoenas, investigations and other harassment that force honest Americans to lawyer up to defend themselves. Obama does not reveal any of the PACs that support him but all you hear about this week is that the PACs that support Mitt Romney should have to reveal the people and corporations that are part of the PACs. No Democrats are calling for forcing government employee unions and Communist organizations to reveal their contributions to Obama. But the socialists demand that the captains of American industry should reveal their contributions because the socialists hate the Americans who are honest and "too" successful. The socialist morons do not believe honesty and success go together. The slogan "Forward" has been a Communist Party slogan for eighty years and it is now Obama’s slogan.
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/05/03/obama-steals-maos-slogan
Tuesday Squawk Box was cutting the microphone on Joe, their moderate MIT graduate commentator. They were arguing about taxes and the Obama position is a tax hike in a middle of the recession while the Romney-Ryan plan is to close loopholes so the tax tables actually reflect what people pay. After America fell from 3000 feet Mike said Obama couldn’t take credit for the pavement that stopped the fall. Obama has to reduce investment uncertainty and create private sector jobs not create new government jobs and hike deficit spending uncertainty. Woody, the Jets Owner said the socialists have taken their eyes off the ball. The ball game is about decreasing private sector unemployment not increasing taxes on the 50% who already pay all the taxes to pay for 30,000 more IRS agents to monitor Americans who actually work for a living and pay taxes.
Again, some one needs to tell socialist that using taxpayer funds to help smear opponents and to gain votes is ostentatious political corruption. But political corruption just gets hotter. At least a dozen private-equity firms have been subpoenaed by New York's attorney general in a probe intended to try to smear Mitt Romney by including Bane just because Mitt Romney helped found Bane more than 20 years ago. Squawk Box said the subpoenas came out long ago but were just leaked to the leftist press. Carried interest, the practice being investigated, is the biggest loophole Warren Buffet uses but he is not under investigation because he only contributed to the Democratic Party. No companies involving active Democrats are to be investigated. Previous investigations of the practice said they were legal.
Four years ago, Barrack Obama pledged to promote a green revolution, saying the government would back alternative-energy technologies that could create 5 million jobs and free the U.S. from a dependence on overseas oil tyrants. Yet our transformation -- driven by fracking -- isn’t green. Green means immature, inexperienced, sour, untrained, naive, callow, unsophisticated, gullible, wet behind the ears, and simplistic. Fracking has no connection to the president’s plans. But because Ohio is a swing state that Obama needs, Obama has made it easier to frack in Ohio and Bloomberg ran headlines this week, "Ohio’s Gas-Fracking Boom Seen Aiding Obama in Swing State." The Sierra Club supports Obama who has frozen all oil, gas, coal, and nuclear investment on government lands and on the continental shelf.
http://content.sierraclub.org/naturalgas/
Planned US job cuts decreased 37 percent from this month last year to 32,239, according to figures released today by Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. It was the fewest for any month since December 2010.
WSJ NEW YORK--Gold futures edged to a fresh five-month intraday high Tuesday, buoyed by hopes that potential Ponzi monetary easing in the U.S. and Europe could boost investor demand for precious metals. Gold soared Friday to its highest settlement price since March after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the central bank's past Ponzi actions, fueling optimism that further easing could be implemented at the Fed's Sept. 12-13 policy-making meeting.
Central-bank stimulus actions, which increase the amount of cash in the financial system, boost precious metals as traders fearing inflation seek to store their wealth in hard assets. Traders are also eyeing the European Central Bank meeting, Thursday for news of potential stimulus measures to shore up euro-zone economies, which could be supportive for gold prices. ECB President Mario Draghi said Monday at a closed European Parliament hearing that the central bank is free to buy government bonds maturing in three years or less, but a bond-buying program hasn't been announced.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120904-706565.html
The New England jobless rate rose 0.3% in July
Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. and others have contributed $20 million toward the cost of the Democratic National Convention, after Obama claimed they wouldn’t accept dirty corporate money, according to Bloomberg reports.
U.S. manufacturing teetered between growth and contraction in August, according to a survey of economists.
Bullion also was seen climbing as the euro rose as much as 0.3 percent against the dollar. Gold and the greenback tend to move inversely with the euro.
Bullard said the Fed is still awaiting more data before taking action
Our warriors who took out Bin Laden are taking political action to replace their commander in chief because he has loose lips that put them and all Americans at risk. They had taken Bin Laden’s computer with the addresses of his commanders and Obama leaked everything so they could all get away.
The movie documentary, "2016" is very popular and is said to be a truthful presentation of the life of Obama and his goal to "Downsize America."
"This pathetic president spent his entire time dividing the nation." "He has taken all the wealth entrepreneurs created and calls it greed." He is pathetic." Kenneth Langone said
According to the Washington Times, Obama is getting the moron vote
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/22/obamas-looking-for-the-moron-vote/
Mitt Romney would drop government spending to 20% of the GDP as it was under Reagan. Only by controlling the spending will America get the debt and the percentage of freeloaders under control. We need a Constitutional limit on taxes. There were no income taxes of any kind until more than 100 years after the constitution was written.
The CBS News poll is finally converging with what the more unbiased Rasmussen poll has been saying all along. However the morons are digging in because they are becoming dependent on the Obama gravy train.
Rasmussen reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 44%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
World market this week
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the ECB will bid on Spanish, Greek, and other bond sales to drive interest rates down and allow socialists to be able to afford greater debt than ever before.
The European Union threatened to impose tariffs on solar panels from China in the biggest EU trade dispute of its kind, saying producers in Europe may be victims of unfair price undercutting.
Deutsche Lufthansa cancelled hundreds more flights on Tuesday as cabin crew launched a second round of that threatens to drag on for weeks and cost Germany's biggest airline tens of millions of euros. The walkout on Friday that left 26,000 passengers stranded.
Treasuries declined, snapping a two-day advance, on speculation that the European Central Bank will announce measures soon to ease the euro region’s three-year debt crisis.
Gold, trading near a five-month high, was seen rising in London as economic reports fuel the case for more central-bank stimulus that will stoke demand for the metal. Euro-area manufacturing shrank more than first estimated in August, a report showed yesterday indicating more inflation will be used to stem the depression in jobgrowth.
China Eastern Airlines the nation’s second-largest carrier by passengers, will increase capacity in the second half by 10 percent as it adds new planes and boosts international services.
The Euro currency rose again making EU products less price competitive.
The European Union’s rating outlook was cut to negative by Moody’s Investors Service, reflecting the negative outlook on the Aaa ratings of Germany, France, the U.K. and the Netherlands that account for about 45 percent of the EU’s budget revenue.
A Spanish town in southern Andalusia, is negotiating with unions to fire the top 13 percent of the 2,000 government workers who comprise 80 percent of its budget. 25% of Spain’s workforce is now jobless and more than two-thirds off the nation’s budget must still be cut.
Emerging markets will continue to suffer unless Obama is given the heave-ho. The American markets are essential to the recovery of the world.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
German stocks are faltering below the recent high that is now close to the March level which is still below the high of 2011 and 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels. If the "American Anti-Moron" backlash wins the election or just shows evidence it will win, then stocks will soar in America and unemployment will begin to tumble down.
The Obama QE3 Ponzi scheme continues to destabilize the American economy and Draghi wants Germany to do it for the EU and destroy the future of German children and grandchildren like Obama is doing to future American children. A cash crunch is continuing among American homeowners. Cash is locked up in fixed assets and falling home prices now is hitting the vast majority of Americans who took out home equity loans. Once the bond market collapses -70% all trade and economic exchange will collapse because the free world runs on credit cards not cash and the banks will be insolvent because they hold unstable American treasuries. The world governments are running out of money for their social nets.
ISM Index Aug: The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 49.6 in August indicating that manufacturing shrank for a third month in August in the longest decline since the recession ended in 2009, threatening to deprive the world of the world’s largest economy of a driver of growth.
Construction Spending Jul fell -0.9% for what is usually the best month for construction.
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 09/01 fell -2.5 percent indicating fewer mortgages and lower future home sales.
Productivity Q2 2.2% up from 1.6% last month
Unit Labor Costs - Rev Q2 1.5% revised down from previously reported 1.7% improvement
Today
Challenger Job Cuts Aug -36.9% down from -44.5% last month
ADP Employment Change Aug 201K improved from 173K
Initial Claims 09/01 365K improved from 374K
Sep 6 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/25
Sep 6 10:00 AM ISM Services Aug
Sep 6 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 09/01
This Week
Sep 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Aug
Sep 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug
Sep 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Aug
Sep 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Aug
Sep 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Aug
Market outlook Sept 6, 2012
U.S. stock-index futures rose 0.4% today as the EU indicated that the EU will use the QE Ponzi scheme that put Japan into a continuous recession and a bear stock market for the past twenty years and has Japan’s debt approaching 180% of their GDP. The US will catch up to Japan in less than 10 years. Jim Cramer said that means that the stock markets will break out on the up side in America. We on the other hand do not see the QE2 Ponzi scheme any less addictive than cocaine.
There still has been no stock market buy signal. The stock market recently hit old highs and failed to break out. During the 2008 campaign Senator Obama said America was in a depression and Senator Dodd followed that irresponsible claim by causing a run on a California bank that collapsed the bank. Obama likes to say the stock market has risen since he took office but the truth is the market collapsed the most just after the morons held their 2008 convention but fell the fastest starting election day when the morons were elected. It cratered one month after Obama was sworn in but the stock market collapse correlated with when Wall Street realized the morons would win the election. The stock market is roughly a six month leading indicator but the morons don’t know that either. If the morons look good this week it would mean the market is ready to collapse again in anticipation of a depression of FDR’s length and depth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence you see is the classic symptom of the Dow theory bull’s trap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.
The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
The VIX is rising? The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The Baltic Dry Index says world trade is now at a depression low. Getting even worse.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Stock market update:
Asian markets were up last night. China up 0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India up 0.2, S.Korea up 0.4%, Taiwan down –0.6%, Japan up 0%.
European markets are up half way through their day in a range of 0.1% to 1.5%.
American market futures are up at about 0.4% in after-hour trading at 8:30 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)