Leftist stupidity and mediocrity forced the Communist and socialists to use hormones to win in the past. But tests for drugs, hormones, and sex changes exposed that fraud, espionage, and betrayal behind the iron curtain was the only way the leftists could compete.
Today the USA, Canada, and west Germany are tie with eight Olympic gold medals each. The UN leftist Indian global warming "experts" are noted for destroying the reputation of science by transforming it into a new "Eastern" religion. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth. The number of true American scientists who have now signed petitions recognizing global warming as a natural glacial cycle and not a human related phenomena far out numbers (3 to one) the American corrupt-incompetent-scientists who support the incompetent India environmentalists. See:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p1845.htm
World Outlook
Greek communists caused havoc in the world stock markets again yesterday because the extent of the damage done by incompetent-leftists seems to be unlimited at times. Greek communists now call the German's Nazis and think they deserve more reparations for their invasion three generations ago. In the USA states like California and New York get extra "stimulation" money to offset deficits by quietly paying off teacher and state employee unions for political support of communists, socialists, and other leftists. Obama said he wanted a "revolutionary" guard to act as a new domestic army. Thug organizations such as Acorn are a vehicle to meet his goal. Europe has also been using stimulus funds for leftists and that only raises the specter of a "Greater Depression"
Argentine still has $20 billion (and growing) of defaulted bonds. The incompetent-leftists of the southern American hemisphere are forming a new organization that excludes the Americans and Canadians.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European leaders bail out Greece. Most major Greek banks there have now been downgraded. Leftist Greek unions run by angry, ignorant and stupid people just struck today and paralyzed the Greek economy and tourism.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit. It now appears that European economies are beginning to slump again because socialist spending programs do not work they only deepen the crisis by increasing the debt burden, which is the cause, not the cure for recessions. Leftists are so stupid they think the cause of economic ruin is what leads to great wealth. They max out their credit cards and then want to mug the rest of us because we work hard and save in order to create real wealth.
Greece is smaller than California or New York where government employees are also sucking the blood out of their taxpayers. But the ignorant American leftists used their $800billion stimulation package to protect and stimulate more government job creation while raising taxes on productive people. Is that stupidity or what?
Week of Market Reports:
Housing Prices rose 3.1% indicating further stabilization.
Consumer Confidence "early estimate" declined to 46% from 56.5%. That seems like a fluke.
Commercial property sales increased 70% in December indicating that commercial real estate may not be as fragile as thought.
New Home Sales fell 11% to 309K from last month's unrevised 342K level. But that is not bad considering that we saw housing prices reported yesterday as up 3.1% and the federal $9000 tax incentive for first time home buyers ended last month. Besides new homes only add to the housing inventory. Existing home sales are a better indicator this Friday.
Ben Bernanke said US interest rates would remain low for several more months to lower the risk of a double dip recession as stimulus plans are phased out. About one third of existing stimulation never was spent.
Yesterday
Unemployment Claims rose to the levels seen three months ago. New claims this month rose to 296000 from 274000 reported last month. It’s the economy stupid! Bill Clinton was right and Barack Hussein Obama still does not get it! Obama still thinks the best health care system in the world is killing people and the best way to stimulate the American economy is to give away American wealth to Acorn thugs, indigents and illegal immigrants who are so lazy they won't even learn English before they demand American welfare.
Durable Goods Orders rose 3% compared to rising 1.9% last month.
Leading Economic Indices improved 0.3% showing the recession has not double dipped at this point at least.
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision: Economy in US Expanded at 5.9 Percent Pace in Fourth Quarter.
The Inventory Story
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 26
The markets dropped yesterday on low volume. The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. Inflation has started and health care costs surge and care declines whenever socialists get involved. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -0.3% again, Hong Kong up 1%, India up 1.1%, and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.5% to 1% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are neutral at 9:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a resumption of the up-trend soon.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Forget the "Great Depression." Worldwide the leftists are setting the stage for a "Greater Depression."
World Outlook
Greek communists now call the German's Nazis and think they deserve more reparations for their invasion three generations ago. In the USA states like California and New York get extra "stimulation" money to offset deficits by quietly paying off teacher and state employee unions for political support of communists, socialists, and other leftists. Obama said he wanted a "revolutionary" guard to act as a new domestic army. Thug organizations such as Acorn are a vehicle to meet his goal. Europe has also been using stimulus funds for leftists and that only raises the specter of a "Greater Depression"
Argentine still has $20 billion (and growing) of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European leaders bail out Greece. Most major Greek banks there have now been downgraded. Leftist Greek unions run by angry, ignorant and stupid people just struck today and paralyzed the Greek economy and tourism.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit. It now appears that European economies are beginning to slump again because socialist spending programs do not work they only deepen the crisis by increasing the debt burden, which is the cause, not the cure for recessions. Leftists are so stupid they think the cause of economic ruin is what leads to great wealth. They max out their credit cards and then want to mug the rest of us because we work hard and save in order to create real wealth.
Greece is smaller than California or New York where government employees are also sucking the blood out of their taxpayers. But the ignorant American leftists used their $800billion stimulation package to protect and stimulate more government job creation while raising taxes on productive people. Is that stupidity or what?
Week of Market Reports:
Housing Prices rose 3.1% indicating further stabilization.
Consumer Confidence "early estimate" declined to 46% from 56.5%. That seems like a fluke.
Commercial property sales increased 70% in December indicating that commercial real estate may not be as fragile as thought.
Yesterday
New Home Sales fell 11% to 309K from last month's unrevised 342K level. But that is not bad considering that we saw housing prices reported yesterday as up 3.1% and the federal $9000 tax incentive for first time home buyers ended last month. Besides new homes only add to the housing inventory. Existing home sales are a better indicator this Friday.
Ben Bernanke said US interest rates would remain low for several more months to lower the risk of a double dip recession as stimulus plans are phased out. About one third of existing stimulation never was spent.
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 25
The markets rose yesterday on low volume. The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. Inflation has started and health care costs surge and care declines whenever socialists get involved. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai up 1.3% again, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India unchanged, and Japan down -1%.
European markets are down in the range from -0.1% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.6% at 8:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a resumption of the up-trend soon. It is anticipated that bank failures will be up this year from last year even with low bank borrowing rates.
Greek communists now call the German's Nazis and think they deserve more reparations for their invasion three generations ago. In the USA states like California and New York get extra "stimulation" money to offset deficits by quietly paying off teacher and state employee unions for political support of communists, socialists, and other leftists. Obama said he wanted a "revolutionary" guard to act as a new domestic army. Thug organizations such as Acorn are a vehicle to meet his goal. Europe has also been using stimulus funds for leftists and that only raises the specter of a "Greater Depression"
Argentine still has $20 billion (and growing) of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European leaders bail out Greece. Most major Greek banks there have now been downgraded. Leftist Greek unions run by angry, ignorant and stupid people just struck today and paralyzed the Greek economy and tourism.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit. It now appears that European economies are beginning to slump again because socialist spending programs do not work they only deepen the crisis by increasing the debt burden, which is the cause, not the cure for recessions. Leftists are so stupid they think the cause of economic ruin is what leads to great wealth. They max out their credit cards and then want to mug the rest of us because we work hard and save in order to create real wealth.
Greece is smaller than California or New York where government employees are also sucking the blood out of their taxpayers. But the ignorant American leftists used their $800billion stimulation package to protect and stimulate more government job creation while raising taxes on productive people. Is that stupidity or what?
Week of Market Reports:
Housing Prices rose 3.1% indicating further stabilization.
Consumer Confidence "early estimate" declined to 46% from 56.5%. That seems like a fluke.
Commercial property sales increased 70% in December indicating that commercial real estate may not be as fragile as thought.
Yesterday
New Home Sales fell 11% to 309K from last month's unrevised 342K level. But that is not bad considering that we saw housing prices reported yesterday as up 3.1% and the federal $9000 tax incentive for first time home buyers ended last month. Besides new homes only add to the housing inventory. Existing home sales are a better indicator this Friday.
Ben Bernanke said US interest rates would remain low for several more months to lower the risk of a double dip recession as stimulus plans are phased out. About one third of existing stimulation never was spent.
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 25
The markets rose yesterday on low volume. The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. Inflation has started and health care costs surge and care declines whenever socialists get involved. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai up 1.3% again, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India unchanged, and Japan down -1%.
European markets are down in the range from -0.1% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.6% at 8:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a resumption of the up-trend soon. It is anticipated that bank failures will be up this year from last year even with low bank borrowing rates.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Leftists, those who grew up cheating, stealing, or killing... naturally think all wealth is attained that way.
Envy of others who are successful and produce even a modest living much less great wealth… has been around since men left the caves and began making tents for following herds or began building mud huts and wooden plows to harvest fields of grain. The Bible describes the situation well and envy was sufficiently destructive four thousand years ago for envy to make the list of the ten greatest abominations of mankind along with stealing and murder. Communism cannot survive without envy, stealing and murder.
The leftist liberals, socialists, and communists are groups that have taken the human flaw of envy and turned it into political parties and a state religion. They have institutionalized the breaking the Ten Commandments with envy of productive people, stealing from productive people, and enslaving or murdering productive people who do not conform. The leftists were around four thousand years ago and if given the opportunity they would have killed Abraham and his kin and stolen the tribes' flocks, tents, and sandals in the name of redistribution of wealth.
Leftists have taken the crime of stealing and made it a pillar of their economic system calling it redistribution of wealth. Go and Google "cargo cult phenomena" and see how this primitive religion works and observe how the Obama administration is very similar to a cargo cult. Ignorance and stupidity are why some people just cannot understand that wealth can be earned from hard work. Those leftists who grew up cheating and stealing naturally think that the productive people who benefit all peoples could not have done so using intelligence and hard work to get ahead. No, the leftist think all wealth is gained by cheating and stealing from others or is a gift from their gods. And so they are filled with anger when others succeed in life and they do not.
From Wikipedia:
A cargo cult is a type of religious practice that may appear in traditional tribal societies in the wake of interaction with technologically advanced cultures. The cults are focused on obtaining the material wealth (the "cargo") of the advanced culture through magic and religious rituals and practices, believing that their deities and ancestors intended the wealth for them. Cargo cults developed primarily in remote parts of New Guinea and other Melanesian and Micronesian societies in the southwest Pacific Ocean, beginning with the first significant arrivals of Westerners in the 19th century. Similar behaviors have, however, also appeared elsewhere in the world.
Cargo cult activity in the Pacific region increased significantly during and immediately after World War II, when large amounts of manpower and materials were brought in by the Japanese and American combatants, and this was observed by the residents of these regions. When the war ended, the military bases were closed and the flow of goods and materials ceased. In an attempt to attract further deliveries of goods, followers of the cults engaged in ritualistic practices such as building crude imitation landing strips, aircraft and radio equipment, and mimicking the behavior that they had observed of the military personnel operating them.
Over the last sixty-five years, most cargo cults have disappeared. However, the John Frum cult, one of the most widely reported and longest-lived, is still active on the island of Tanna, Vanuatu. This cult started before the war, and only became a cargo cult afterwards.
Yes, ignorance, envy, anger, and stupidity are the hallmark of the leftists of the current American administration. Just think how stupid it is for the nation with the greatest health system in the world to want to trade it in for something we had fifty years ago. And think how stupid it is for an American to think we owe an apology to tribal cultures of hate that mistreat women and children and blow themselves up when they get angry.
World Outlook
Argentine still has $20 billion (and growing) of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European leaders bail out Greece. Most major Greek banks there have now been downgraded. Leftist Greek unions run by angry, ignorant and stupid people just struck today and paralyzed the Greek economy and tourism.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit. It now appears that European economies are beginning to slump again because socialist spending programs do not work they only deepen the crisis by increasing the debt burden, which is the cause, not the cure for recessions. Leftists are so stupid they think the cause of economic ruin is what leads to great wealth. They max out their credit cards and then want to mug the rest of us because we work hard and save in order to create real wealth.
Greece is smaller than California or New York where government employees are also sucking the blood out of their taxpayers. But the ignorant American leftists used their $800billion stimulation package to protect and stimulate more government job creation while raising taxes on productive people. Is that stupidity or what??
Week of Market Reports:
Yesterday
Housing Prices rose 3.1% indicating further stabilization.
Consumer Confidence "early estimate" declined to 46% from 56.5%. That seems like a fluke.
Commercial property sales increased 70% in December indicating that commercial real estate may not be as fragile as thought.
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Ben Bernanke speech
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Ben Bernanke speech
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 24
The markets dipped yesterday on low volume. Bank loans in December declined unexpectedly. It is expected that today Bernacke will say the FED will continue low rates for the next few months until it is clear that there is no double dip as Europe may already be seeing.
The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai up 1.3%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -0.2%, and Japan down -1.5%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% at 9:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a resumption of the up-trend soon.
The leftist liberals, socialists, and communists are groups that have taken the human flaw of envy and turned it into political parties and a state religion. They have institutionalized the breaking the Ten Commandments with envy of productive people, stealing from productive people, and enslaving or murdering productive people who do not conform. The leftists were around four thousand years ago and if given the opportunity they would have killed Abraham and his kin and stolen the tribes' flocks, tents, and sandals in the name of redistribution of wealth.
Leftists have taken the crime of stealing and made it a pillar of their economic system calling it redistribution of wealth. Go and Google "cargo cult phenomena" and see how this primitive religion works and observe how the Obama administration is very similar to a cargo cult. Ignorance and stupidity are why some people just cannot understand that wealth can be earned from hard work. Those leftists who grew up cheating and stealing naturally think that the productive people who benefit all peoples could not have done so using intelligence and hard work to get ahead. No, the leftist think all wealth is gained by cheating and stealing from others or is a gift from their gods. And so they are filled with anger when others succeed in life and they do not.
From Wikipedia:
A cargo cult is a type of religious practice that may appear in traditional tribal societies in the wake of interaction with technologically advanced cultures. The cults are focused on obtaining the material wealth (the "cargo") of the advanced culture through magic and religious rituals and practices, believing that their deities and ancestors intended the wealth for them. Cargo cults developed primarily in remote parts of New Guinea and other Melanesian and Micronesian societies in the southwest Pacific Ocean, beginning with the first significant arrivals of Westerners in the 19th century. Similar behaviors have, however, also appeared elsewhere in the world.
Cargo cult activity in the Pacific region increased significantly during and immediately after World War II, when large amounts of manpower and materials were brought in by the Japanese and American combatants, and this was observed by the residents of these regions. When the war ended, the military bases were closed and the flow of goods and materials ceased. In an attempt to attract further deliveries of goods, followers of the cults engaged in ritualistic practices such as building crude imitation landing strips, aircraft and radio equipment, and mimicking the behavior that they had observed of the military personnel operating them.
Over the last sixty-five years, most cargo cults have disappeared. However, the John Frum cult, one of the most widely reported and longest-lived, is still active on the island of Tanna, Vanuatu. This cult started before the war, and only became a cargo cult afterwards.
Yes, ignorance, envy, anger, and stupidity are the hallmark of the leftists of the current American administration. Just think how stupid it is for the nation with the greatest health system in the world to want to trade it in for something we had fifty years ago. And think how stupid it is for an American to think we owe an apology to tribal cultures of hate that mistreat women and children and blow themselves up when they get angry.
World Outlook
Argentine still has $20 billion (and growing) of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European leaders bail out Greece. Most major Greek banks there have now been downgraded. Leftist Greek unions run by angry, ignorant and stupid people just struck today and paralyzed the Greek economy and tourism.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit. It now appears that European economies are beginning to slump again because socialist spending programs do not work they only deepen the crisis by increasing the debt burden, which is the cause, not the cure for recessions. Leftists are so stupid they think the cause of economic ruin is what leads to great wealth. They max out their credit cards and then want to mug the rest of us because we work hard and save in order to create real wealth.
Greece is smaller than California or New York where government employees are also sucking the blood out of their taxpayers. But the ignorant American leftists used their $800billion stimulation package to protect and stimulate more government job creation while raising taxes on productive people. Is that stupidity or what??
Week of Market Reports:
Yesterday
Housing Prices rose 3.1% indicating further stabilization.
Consumer Confidence "early estimate" declined to 46% from 56.5%. That seems like a fluke.
Commercial property sales increased 70% in December indicating that commercial real estate may not be as fragile as thought.
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Ben Bernanke speech
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Ben Bernanke speech
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 24
The markets dipped yesterday on low volume. Bank loans in December declined unexpectedly. It is expected that today Bernacke will say the FED will continue low rates for the next few months until it is clear that there is no double dip as Europe may already be seeing.
The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai up 1.3%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -0.2%, and Japan down -1.5%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% at 9:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a resumption of the up-trend soon.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Senate chamber's newest Republican, Sen. Scott Brown, sided with Proletariat on first vote.
He could be the Democrat-socialist delight as they ram through reparations and other wealth redistribution programs to consolidate gains in their voting block of the proletariat and illegal aliens.
World Outlook
Argentine now has $20 billion of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European Union leaders bail out Greece.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit.
Greece is actually smaller than California or New York where government employees are sucking the blood out of their taxpayers.
Week of Market Reports:
Tuesday, Feb. 23:
Housing Prices
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Ben Bernanke speech
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Ben Bernanke speech
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 23
Home Depot profits exceeded analysts’ estimates and dividends were raised.
It is expected that Bernacke will continue low rates for the next few months until it is clear that there is no double dip.
The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were mixed over night; Shanghai down -0.7%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.3%, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down slightly in the range from 0% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% at 8:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well now.
World Outlook
Argentine now has $20 billion of defaulted bonds.
Derivative traders are signaling that the Euro’s slump to a nine-month low will continue even if European Union leaders bail out Greece.
Mexico will Buy Up to $600 Million a Month as Mexico’s central bank buys as much as $600 million a month in the currency market in a push to boost foreign reserves after last year’s peso tumble led policy makers to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Goldman helped Greece and others hide $billions of debt thereby hiding their high risk and putting them well over their heads and unable to pay fair market interest on their existing debt now that it has been disclosed. Interest payments on new debt have become unaffordable and any country that offers Greece aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms that have helped hide the country’s true deficit.
Greece is actually smaller than California or New York where government employees are sucking the blood out of their taxpayers.
Week of Market Reports:
Tuesday, Feb. 23:
Housing Prices
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Ben Bernanke speech
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Ben Bernanke speech
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 23
Home Depot profits exceeded analysts’ estimates and dividends were raised.
It is expected that Bernacke will continue low rates for the next few months until it is clear that there is no double dip.
The short and interim market direction remains bullish. However, when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were mixed over night; Shanghai down -0.7%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.3%, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down slightly in the range from 0% to -0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% at 8:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well now.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Obama begins reparations to his Black constituents under Pigford v. Glickman with $1.5Billion.
This lawsuit was filed in 1997 under the Clinton administration near the end of his term when Clinton was pardoning criminals who offered him large enough contributions. Timothy Pigford was joined by 400 additional African American farmer plaintiffs. Dan Glickman, Clinton's Secretary of Agriculture for eight years, was the nominal defendant. The allegations were that the USDA treated black farmers unfairly when deciding to allocate taxpayer handouts to farmers in the form of price support loans, disaster payments, "farm ownership" loans, and operating loans, and that the USDA had completely failed to process subsequent complaints about racial discrimination.
All that money was taxpayer money and no farmer actually had any right to any of it. But due to political corruption it was claimed that only the farmers that the Clinton administration favored got these taxpayer handouts. He had the black vote in his pocket so he only had to buy white farmer votes. At first the lawsuit went nowhere but then the Obama administration took up the cause. They claim they did not get their fair share of the Clinton's vote-buying funds for their Clinton votes. This court decree now facilitated by the first black president and the first black US Attorney general amounts to $3.7million for each of the 400 original plaintiffs. It sets a new legal precedence that vote buying and other forms of democrat-socialist corruption. In the future when taxpayers are mugged the stolen wealth must be split equally among the muggers or else the black muggers have the right to mug the taxpayers again to get their fair share.
At this rate, if every black American were to receive this level of corrupt reparation payment for what was (before 1830) worldwide slavery... it would cost every non-black American roughly $370,000 per man woman and child. Obviously this is the largest example of political corruption in world history.
This is just the beginning of Obama's reparations. If congress grants this first $1.5 Billion then a larger 2004 case can reinstated. In 2004, the Black Farmers and Agriculturists Association filed an additional US$20.5 billion class action lawsuit against the USDA for the same practices, alleging racially discriminatory practices between 1997 and 2004. The lawsuit was at first dismissed when the BFAA failed to show it had standing to bring the suit. A farm consists of a minimum of 10 acres in most states but most are in the west where prices are low and these small farms are about 100 acres. Each plaintiff in that case would get about $1million in addition to whatever some of them got in the first lawsuit.
Of course the lawyers will take most of the money for themselves and they are already flooding congress with lobbyists and contributions now to buy congressional approval to pay for all these reparations. Young Bayh just last week decided to retire from Congress after accumulating $13million in lobbyist contributions. Remember this is the administration that said it would not listen to lobbyists.
World Outlook
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Greece and others may already be well over their heads and unable to pay interest on their existing debt if it is disclosed. Of course interest rates on new debt will soon become unaffordable and any country that offers aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms, including some payments from banks that have helped hide the country’s true deficit (Bloomberg).
Argentine now has $20 billion of defaulted bonds.
Greece is actually smaller than California or New York where government employees are already sucking the blood out of their taxpayers.
Week of Market Reports:
Monday, Feb. 22:
Ben Bernanke speech
Tuesday, Feb. 23:
Housing Prices
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 22
Lowe’s Cos. posted fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after sales at established stores fell less than the company forecast.
Treasury yields were near a six-week high as the stock rally (fear of stock market risk decreased) cut demand for the relative safety of government debt as the U.S. prepared to sell a record $126 billion of securities. It could also mean fear of government debt is increasing.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong up 2.4%, India up 0.3%, and Japan up 2.7%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.5% at 8:30 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well now.
All that money was taxpayer money and no farmer actually had any right to any of it. But due to political corruption it was claimed that only the farmers that the Clinton administration favored got these taxpayer handouts. He had the black vote in his pocket so he only had to buy white farmer votes. At first the lawsuit went nowhere but then the Obama administration took up the cause. They claim they did not get their fair share of the Clinton's vote-buying funds for their Clinton votes. This court decree now facilitated by the first black president and the first black US Attorney general amounts to $3.7million for each of the 400 original plaintiffs. It sets a new legal precedence that vote buying and other forms of democrat-socialist corruption. In the future when taxpayers are mugged the stolen wealth must be split equally among the muggers or else the black muggers have the right to mug the taxpayers again to get their fair share.
At this rate, if every black American were to receive this level of corrupt reparation payment for what was (before 1830) worldwide slavery... it would cost every non-black American roughly $370,000 per man woman and child. Obviously this is the largest example of political corruption in world history.
This is just the beginning of Obama's reparations. If congress grants this first $1.5 Billion then a larger 2004 case can reinstated. In 2004, the Black Farmers and Agriculturists Association filed an additional US$20.5 billion class action lawsuit against the USDA for the same practices, alleging racially discriminatory practices between 1997 and 2004. The lawsuit was at first dismissed when the BFAA failed to show it had standing to bring the suit. A farm consists of a minimum of 10 acres in most states but most are in the west where prices are low and these small farms are about 100 acres. Each plaintiff in that case would get about $1million in addition to whatever some of them got in the first lawsuit.
Of course the lawyers will take most of the money for themselves and they are already flooding congress with lobbyists and contributions now to buy congressional approval to pay for all these reparations. Young Bayh just last week decided to retire from Congress after accumulating $13million in lobbyist contributions. Remember this is the administration that said it would not listen to lobbyists.
World Outlook
It is becoming evident that EU nations are hiding much of their national debt with transactions that keep the debt off the books. Greece and others may already be well over their heads and unable to pay interest on their existing debt if it is disclosed. Of course interest rates on new debt will soon become unaffordable and any country that offers aid will lose everything they loan. Greece arranged swap agreements with about 15 securities firms, including some payments from banks that have helped hide the country’s true deficit (Bloomberg).
Argentine now has $20 billion of defaulted bonds.
Greece is actually smaller than California or New York where government employees are already sucking the blood out of their taxpayers.
Week of Market Reports:
Monday, Feb. 22:
Ben Bernanke speech
Tuesday, Feb. 23:
Housing Prices
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Feb. 24:
New Home Sales
Thursday, Feb. 25:
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Leading Economic Indices
Friday, Feb. 26:
GDP Revision
Chicago PM Index
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales 10am
Market Outlook February 22
Lowe’s Cos. posted fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after sales at established stores fell less than the company forecast.
Treasury yields were near a six-week high as the stock rally (fear of stock market risk decreased) cut demand for the relative safety of government debt as the U.S. prepared to sell a record $126 billion of securities. It could also mean fear of government debt is increasing.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai down -0.5%, Hong Kong up 2.4%, India up 0.3%, and Japan up 2.7%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.5% at 8:30 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well now.
Friday, February 19, 2010
We need to throw all the free spending leftists out of office this year and repeal all their wacko legislation.
The Fed begins to take action. Inflation to be ignited by higher rates. Then comes looming loony left Obama tax increase.
The Fed said late Thursday that it raised its discount rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points, to 0.75%. The move is largely symbolic, because banks do little borrowing at the discount window.
The unanimous decision to boost the discount rate has no effect on the more widely watched federal funds rate, which measures the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That rate is expected to remain between 0% and 0.25% for the foreseeable future, given the high Obama unemployment and the fragile state of the economy. The Fed also shortened the term of some discount window loans and raised the minimum bid in the term auction facilities it uses to supply overnight funds to banks.
In its statement the Fed said, "The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy."
But higher rates actually cause businesses to build in the higher costs immediately and that causes anticipatory inflation because costs will be higher by the time goods hit the market.
Also it encourages dangerous inventory build-ups because raw goods inventories appreciate faster by inflation than the interest on the cost of buying them. Inventory build-up gives the false sense of recovery because it is usually mistaken as consumption not as inventory bloat. That gives false hope and a stock market rally like we are now seeing. It becomes contagious at first. Demand of all goods catches fire and the shortages cause rapid price increases that initially reward those who maintain higher inventories. Those inflation demand driven companies are the first to re-hire. But when consumer sales do not live up to the inventory build-up a new wave of layoffs begin and corporate losses mount.
Then add to all this the looming loony left Obama taxes that come into play and crush the small businessmen who fall into Obama's phony "rich person" 200K gross income bracket. Then we potentially have the Obama Great Depression when the small businessmen shut down and retire because it is not worth it to be indentured servants to the loony left indigent, illegal alien, union, government worker, welfare, single Moslem mom (with eight kids), socialist-communist-Democrat majority voting at the poles. We are facing the "tyranny of the majority" that the writers of the constitution warned about. That is why they made America a Republic first and a democracy second so that a majority of indigents, criminals, government workers, politically favored union members, and welfare recipients do not get to reign over honest hard working productive Americans who pay for the above.
World Outlook
Gold plunged from a recent $1128/oz to $1,096 a recent low on an announcement that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will be selling 191.3 metric tonnes of gold. But 191.3 metric tonnes times 2200 lbs/ton times 16 oz/lb times $1096/oz is a piddling $7.38 Billion. If such a piddling sale can drop gold $32/oz what will Obama's $9 Trillion deficit projection do? Will the Obama socialist deficit raise gold to $35,000 per ounce?
Bondholders get cautious as Colombian interest on debt climb toward 9%. Colombia’s peso slump will drive Columbia closer to default.
A poll by Torcuato Di Tella University indicates Argentines expect consumer prices to rise over 31 percent over the next 12 months.
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
New Housing starts were up but building permits were down. Import prices were up 0.4% or at a 4.8% annual rate.
Industrial Production was up 0.9% and utilization rose to 72.6%.
Initial unemployment claims rose 31K from 442K to 473K
Producer Price Index rose from an annual rate of 4.8% to an incredible 16.8%
The Leading Economic Index was still positive but declined to +0.3% from +1.2% last month.
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell (0.1%) for the first time since 1982.
Market forces Feb 19, 2010
The stock markets ready to consolidate gains. We estimate the advance over the last 10 days is about half the total rally we expect over the next two months.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -2.6%%, India down -0.8%, and Japan down -2.1%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% at 9:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well initially.
Yesterday many stocks tried to cover their gaps before advancing but many gaps still remain. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
The Fed said late Thursday that it raised its discount rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points, to 0.75%. The move is largely symbolic, because banks do little borrowing at the discount window.
The unanimous decision to boost the discount rate has no effect on the more widely watched federal funds rate, which measures the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That rate is expected to remain between 0% and 0.25% for the foreseeable future, given the high Obama unemployment and the fragile state of the economy. The Fed also shortened the term of some discount window loans and raised the minimum bid in the term auction facilities it uses to supply overnight funds to banks.
In its statement the Fed said, "The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy."
But higher rates actually cause businesses to build in the higher costs immediately and that causes anticipatory inflation because costs will be higher by the time goods hit the market.
Also it encourages dangerous inventory build-ups because raw goods inventories appreciate faster by inflation than the interest on the cost of buying them. Inventory build-up gives the false sense of recovery because it is usually mistaken as consumption not as inventory bloat. That gives false hope and a stock market rally like we are now seeing. It becomes contagious at first. Demand of all goods catches fire and the shortages cause rapid price increases that initially reward those who maintain higher inventories. Those inflation demand driven companies are the first to re-hire. But when consumer sales do not live up to the inventory build-up a new wave of layoffs begin and corporate losses mount.
Then add to all this the looming loony left Obama taxes that come into play and crush the small businessmen who fall into Obama's phony "rich person" 200K gross income bracket. Then we potentially have the Obama Great Depression when the small businessmen shut down and retire because it is not worth it to be indentured servants to the loony left indigent, illegal alien, union, government worker, welfare, single Moslem mom (with eight kids), socialist-communist-Democrat majority voting at the poles. We are facing the "tyranny of the majority" that the writers of the constitution warned about. That is why they made America a Republic first and a democracy second so that a majority of indigents, criminals, government workers, politically favored union members, and welfare recipients do not get to reign over honest hard working productive Americans who pay for the above.
World Outlook
Gold plunged from a recent $1128/oz to $1,096 a recent low on an announcement that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will be selling 191.3 metric tonnes of gold. But 191.3 metric tonnes times 2200 lbs/ton times 16 oz/lb times $1096/oz is a piddling $7.38 Billion. If such a piddling sale can drop gold $32/oz what will Obama's $9 Trillion deficit projection do? Will the Obama socialist deficit raise gold to $35,000 per ounce?
Bondholders get cautious as Colombian interest on debt climb toward 9%. Colombia’s peso slump will drive Columbia closer to default.
A poll by Torcuato Di Tella University indicates Argentines expect consumer prices to rise over 31 percent over the next 12 months.
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
New Housing starts were up but building permits were down. Import prices were up 0.4% or at a 4.8% annual rate.
Industrial Production was up 0.9% and utilization rose to 72.6%.
Initial unemployment claims rose 31K from 442K to 473K
Producer Price Index rose from an annual rate of 4.8% to an incredible 16.8%
The Leading Economic Index was still positive but declined to +0.3% from +1.2% last month.
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell (0.1%) for the first time since 1982.
Market forces Feb 19, 2010
The stock markets ready to consolidate gains. We estimate the advance over the last 10 days is about half the total rally we expect over the next two months.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be a critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -2.6%%, India down -0.8%, and Japan down -2.1%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% at 9:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen but we are due for a small correction soon. Still inflation will stimulate inventory build-up, which will mean profits for suppliers. Suppliers should do well initially.
Yesterday many stocks tried to cover their gaps before advancing but many gaps still remain. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Socialists continue to use the stimulation package to loot government coffers.
State governments face a trillion-dollar gap between the pension, health-care and other retirement benefits promised to leftist public employees so that socialist politicians can continue to purchase the state worker votes and use of their propaganda machines each election. The left continues to load up government with patronage jobs for their friends and relatives. They love to say, "It is not what you know that gets you a job… it is who you know."
World Outlook
Bondholders get cautious as Colombian interest on debt climb toward 9%. Colombia’s peso slump will drive Columbia closer to default.
A poll by Torcuato Di Tella University indicates Argentines expect consumer prices to rise over 31 percent over the next 12 months.
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
New Housing starts were up but building permits were down. Import prices were up 0.4% or at a 4.8% annual rate.
Industrial Production was up 0.9% and utilization rose to 72.6%.
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 17, 2010
The stock markets consolidate gains.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -0.5%, India down -0.6%, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% at 7:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen.
Yesterday many stocks tried to cover their gaps before advancing but many gaps still remain. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
World Outlook
Bondholders get cautious as Colombian interest on debt climb toward 9%. Colombia’s peso slump will drive Columbia closer to default.
A poll by Torcuato Di Tella University indicates Argentines expect consumer prices to rise over 31 percent over the next 12 months.
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
New Housing starts were up but building permits were down. Import prices were up 0.4% or at a 4.8% annual rate.
Industrial Production was up 0.9% and utilization rose to 72.6%.
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 17, 2010
The stock markets consolidate gains.
Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use their own real stock volume.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai closed, Hong Kong down -0.5%, India down -0.6%, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up slightly in the range from 0.3% to +0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% at 7:00 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen.
Yesterday many stocks tried to cover their gaps before advancing but many gaps still remain. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Three strikes against the loony-left and environmentalist stupidity and fraud.
The first strike against environmentalist fraud is the admission in England that the hockey stick rapid increase in global warming was a fraud. Since 1995 there has been no statistically significant warming of earth.
President Obama finally realizes that the cleanest and most abundant source of energy is nuclear energy... strike two. The first new nuclear powerplant since hapless Jimmy Carter who turned out to be almost as smart as Al Gore as environmentalists go. Obama even mentioned natural gas last week the cleanest hydrocarbon fuel that the wacko environmentalists love to hate almost as much as they hate clean abundant nuclear energy. The loony tune environmentalists are basically socialists and communists who want to make the free market private enterprise nations look as dull, incompetent, and hazardous as the communists did before their socialism imploded.
The third big strike is from big business with Caterpillar and three oil companies quitting the human global warming and scientific fraud coalition. Environmentalist morons will hopefully fill the places on the unemployment lines and let more competent and intelligent workers go back to the jobs they lost due to the environmentalist morons. By the way I am an environmentalist of the kind who think scientific work should be truthful not fabricated to substantiate a fantasy. Environmentalist stupidity and fraud has undermined the credibility of all science.
World Outlook
Taliban retreat as US forces drive them out of southern Afghanistan where they have little cover to retreat to. The American drive hit before weather improved to facilitate the escape of the Taliban. The initial forces are there to remove the Taliban.
European Union officials apparently have known that Greece used derivatives to conceal its growing budget deficit. Company bond sales are declining over concern that the inability of European governments to trim their budget deficits will threaten a global recovery.
The shock of China tightening credit is nothing compared to what the US will feel when the FED tightens. China was down slightly but Asian markets advanced over night. The value of mining mergers and acquisitions may more than double this year, snapping a two-year decline, as China seeks to secure supplies of raw materials
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
Wednesday, Feb. 17:
New Housing starts 8:30 AM
Industrial Prod. 9:15 AM
FOMC minutes 2 PM
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 17, 2010
The stock markets had their best day in three months. Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use a real stock volume.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India up 1.3%, and Japan up 2.7%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.9% to +1.9% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are again up about 0.3% at 8:30 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen.
John Deere profit beat estimates as material costs dropped; 2010 forecast raised. Yesterday many stocks gapped upward. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
President Obama finally realizes that the cleanest and most abundant source of energy is nuclear energy... strike two. The first new nuclear powerplant since hapless Jimmy Carter who turned out to be almost as smart as Al Gore as environmentalists go. Obama even mentioned natural gas last week the cleanest hydrocarbon fuel that the wacko environmentalists love to hate almost as much as they hate clean abundant nuclear energy. The loony tune environmentalists are basically socialists and communists who want to make the free market private enterprise nations look as dull, incompetent, and hazardous as the communists did before their socialism imploded.
The third big strike is from big business with Caterpillar and three oil companies quitting the human global warming and scientific fraud coalition. Environmentalist morons will hopefully fill the places on the unemployment lines and let more competent and intelligent workers go back to the jobs they lost due to the environmentalist morons. By the way I am an environmentalist of the kind who think scientific work should be truthful not fabricated to substantiate a fantasy. Environmentalist stupidity and fraud has undermined the credibility of all science.
World Outlook
Taliban retreat as US forces drive them out of southern Afghanistan where they have little cover to retreat to. The American drive hit before weather improved to facilitate the escape of the Taliban. The initial forces are there to remove the Taliban.
European Union officials apparently have known that Greece used derivatives to conceal its growing budget deficit. Company bond sales are declining over concern that the inability of European governments to trim their budget deficits will threaten a global recovery.
The shock of China tightening credit is nothing compared to what the US will feel when the FED tightens. China was down slightly but Asian markets advanced over night. The value of mining mergers and acquisitions may more than double this year, snapping a two-year decline, as China seeks to secure supplies of raw materials
Week of Market Reports:
Faster-than-estimated growth in New York manufacturing spurred optimism the global economic recovery will be sustained. Commodities rallied, with oil jumping the most in four months.
Housing Market Index
The Housing Market Index moved up in February, but chronic mortgage foreclosures suggest tepid gains in home construction in the quarters ahead.
Wednesday, Feb. 17:
New Housing starts 8:30 AM
Industrial Prod. 9:15 AM
FOMC minutes 2 PM
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 17, 2010
The stock markets had their best day in three months. Warning; when the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know what is likely two or three months in advance. The reason we cannot do a Market Cash Flow Analysis (MCFA) of the other exchanges is because they use the NYSE volume; they no longer use a real stock volume.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down -1.3%, India up 1.3%, and Japan up 2.7%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.9% to +1.9% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are again up about 0.3% at 8:30 AM EST. It is seldom a good indicator of what will happen.
John Deere profit beat estimates as material costs dropped; 2010 forecast raised. Yesterday many stocks gapped upward. We expect that will be an excuse some talking heads use to cover their mistakes three months from now when we estimate the market will decline.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Obama Socialists are being paid to obstruct Obama leftists. Obama sends the stimulus money to unions.
Senator Bayh to retire with purported $13 Million in Wall Street contributions. Wall Street is now buying off the key congressional leadership including soon to retire Dodd and the Senate Banking Committee. Obama has not talked lately about creating a domestic military force similar to Iran's guard that puts down riots and murders dissidents. The US Congress is now overflowing with corrupt sycophants stealing from the American people for their own interests.
Bailing out Greece is a moral hazard unless Greece is required to pay back the loans with interest. It is effectively a bailout of overpaid union labor and indigent government pseudo-workers who use their body heat to help keep room temperatures higher in winter and who are frequently absent in the summer to help reduce air conditioning costs. I had a high school friend who became a NY State employee in Albany. He explained to me how they handled NY State citizen problems. He said he put the problem letter in a drawer for two months in case it was traced to him. That never happened because they were so disorganized so he always threw out the letters after two months. He was the most efficient worker in the office and had high ratings because he socialized with other state employees all day to keep morale high.
World Outlook
Taliban retreat as US forces drive them out of southern Afghanistan where they have little cover to retreat to. The American drive hit before weather improved to facilitate the escape of the Taliban. The initial forces are there to remove the Taliban.
European Union officials apparently have known that Greece used derivatives to conceal its growing budget deficit. Company bond sales are declining over concern that the inability of European governments to trim their budget deficits will threaten a global recovery.
The shock of China tightening credit is nothing compared to what the US will feel when the FED tightens. China was down slightly but Asian markets advanced over night. The value of mining mergers and acquisitions may more than double this year, snapping a two-year decline, as China seeks to secure supplies of raw materials
Week of Market Reports:
Tuesday, Feb. 16:
NY State Manufacturing Index 8:30 AM
Housing Market Index 1 PM
Wednesday, Feb. 17:
New Housing starts 8:30 AM
Industrial Prod. 9:15 AM
FOMC minutes 2 PM
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 16, 2010
When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know hat is likely two or three months in advance.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down 0.1%, India up 1.2%, and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.1% to +0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.3% at 7:30 AM EST.
Bailing out Greece is a moral hazard unless Greece is required to pay back the loans with interest. It is effectively a bailout of overpaid union labor and indigent government pseudo-workers who use their body heat to help keep room temperatures higher in winter and who are frequently absent in the summer to help reduce air conditioning costs. I had a high school friend who became a NY State employee in Albany. He explained to me how they handled NY State citizen problems. He said he put the problem letter in a drawer for two months in case it was traced to him. That never happened because they were so disorganized so he always threw out the letters after two months. He was the most efficient worker in the office and had high ratings because he socialized with other state employees all day to keep morale high.
World Outlook
Taliban retreat as US forces drive them out of southern Afghanistan where they have little cover to retreat to. The American drive hit before weather improved to facilitate the escape of the Taliban. The initial forces are there to remove the Taliban.
European Union officials apparently have known that Greece used derivatives to conceal its growing budget deficit. Company bond sales are declining over concern that the inability of European governments to trim their budget deficits will threaten a global recovery.
The shock of China tightening credit is nothing compared to what the US will feel when the FED tightens. China was down slightly but Asian markets advanced over night. The value of mining mergers and acquisitions may more than double this year, snapping a two-year decline, as China seeks to secure supplies of raw materials
Week of Market Reports:
Tuesday, Feb. 16:
NY State Manufacturing Index 8:30 AM
Housing Market Index 1 PM
Wednesday, Feb. 17:
New Housing starts 8:30 AM
Industrial Prod. 9:15 AM
FOMC minutes 2 PM
Thursday, Feb. 18:
Unemployment claims 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM
Leading Economic Index 10 AM
Friday, Feb. 19:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
Market forces Feb 16, 2010
When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring soon after. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know hat is likely two or three months in advance.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down 0.1%, India up 1.2%, and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.1% to +0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.3% at 7:30 AM EST.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Socialist's bailout of the EU State of Greece may be pretext for socialist Obama bailout of California.
Bailing out Greece is a moral hazard unless Greece is required to pay back the loans with interest. It is effectively a bailout of overpaid union labor and indigent government pseudo-workers who use their body heat to help keep room temperatures higher in winter and who are frequently absent in the summer to help reduce air conditioning costs. I had a high school friend who became a NY State employee in Albany. He explained to me how they handled NY State citizen problems. He said he put the problem letter in a drawer for two months in case it was traced to him. That never happened because they were so disorganized so he always threw out the letters after two months. He was the most efficient worker in the office and had high ratings because he socialized with other state employees all day to keep morale high.
World Outlook
China resumes belt tightening to head off a rapid inflation in food prices.
Britain is convincing the US FED to aim for a 4% inflation rate instead of the 2% rate used by Greenspan. Their idea is to give more credit tightening room and thus avoid the Japanese problem of repeated and prolonged recessions.
Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 440K 475k 465k 483k 480k
Initial claims were down this week.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4538K 4550k 4590k 4617k 4602k
Seventy weeks of unemployment compensation may be increased to 99 weeks to ease the contraction but that will raise the recorded unemployment rate because the number will be truthful. Throwing people off of unemployment can make homelessness and credit defaults worse.
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% -0.1% -0.3%
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan 0.6% -0.3% 0.5% -0.2%
Feb 12 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec -0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb 75.0 75.0 74.4
Market forces Feb 12, 2010
When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know hat is likely two or three months in advance. It is too early to sell because in two or three months our leading indicator could become positive again. But right now it alerts us to be prepared to sell out at the next high, which is probably going to be close to the 2009 high, and the high for 2010. We expect the coming rally to lift the averages back close to the previous high. That high will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when we intend to be taking profits.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down 0.1%, India closed, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are mixed in the range from -0.2% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.4% at 8:30 AM EST.
World Outlook
China resumes belt tightening to head off a rapid inflation in food prices.
Britain is convincing the US FED to aim for a 4% inflation rate instead of the 2% rate used by Greenspan. Their idea is to give more credit tightening room and thus avoid the Japanese problem of repeated and prolonged recessions.
Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 440K 475k 465k 483k 480k
Initial claims were down this week.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4538K 4550k 4590k 4617k 4602k
Seventy weeks of unemployment compensation may be increased to 99 weeks to ease the contraction but that will raise the recorded unemployment rate because the number will be truthful. Throwing people off of unemployment can make homelessness and credit defaults worse.
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% -0.1% -0.3%
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan 0.6% -0.3% 0.5% -0.2%
Feb 12 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec -0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb 75.0 75.0 74.4
Market forces Feb 12, 2010
When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) it will likely be critical time to take profits because FED tightening will likely be occurring. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. But that signal has a long lead time which allows us to know hat is likely two or three months in advance. It is too early to sell because in two or three months our leading indicator could become positive again. But right now it alerts us to be prepared to sell out at the next high, which is probably going to be close to the 2009 high, and the high for 2010. We expect the coming rally to lift the averages back close to the previous high. That high will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when we intend to be taking profits.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong down 0.1%, India closed, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are mixed in the range from -0.2% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
Today US pre-market futures are down about -0.4% at 8:30 AM EST.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
US markets successfully tested Oct 30 lows and ready to advance again.
Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke laid more groundwork for exiting the US record expansion of credit without saying when it will happen. He did give some clues though.
In written congressional testimony, Bernanke described how the Fed will use tools such as interest it pays on banks’ deposits to tighten credit “at some point.” A potential familiar increase in the Fed’s discount rate would be part of the “normalization” of lending “before long” and wouldn’t signal a change in the outlook for monetary policy. The first major control for bring down expansion will be by raising the interest rate paid on funds deposited by banks at the Fed, as well as so-called reverse repurchase agreements that temporarily drain cash from the banking system.
The Fed, in the near term, will not sell the $1.43 trillion of housing debt being purchased through next month but instead will wait at least until after policy tightening has gotten under way and the economy is clearly in a sustainable recovery. Fed officials may decide in the future to sell securities.
Bernanke said they might first test the tools for draining reserves on a limited basis. That may start a pre-mature stock market decline. But as the time for the removal of policy accommodation draws near, those operations could be scaled up to drain more significant volumes of reserve balances to provide tighter control over short-term interest rates.
Congress granted the Fed this power in October 2008 as part of the law creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to then execute the actual firming of policy by raising the interest rate on bank reserves. The first thing that will happen is that there will be a language change, taking ‘extended period’ out” of the Fed’s public policy statement. The changes in the interest rate will be broadly telegraphed.
Bernanke said the Fed might temporarily replace the federal funds rate as a policy guide with interest it pays on banks’ deposits should fed funds become a “less reliable indicator than usual.” The goal is a 3% economic expansion rate this year.
World Outlook
China charges Australian mining firm with having corrupt salesmen that demand bribes and kickbacks. Lets hope they have filmed the proof of corruption before they take them out and shoot them. That must send a chill down the backs of corrupt individuals. Perhaps they will arrest some of Obama's gang from Chicago when they get a taxpayer-funded tour of China. Perhaps the entire ACORN organization can be sent to China to experience true socialist justice when socialists write their own rules and pass their own version of a Constitution.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas a third time and rebounded again yesterday. Volume dropped slightly as the markets ended about 0.2% lower on Wednesday. The October 30 lows held with a few percent margin and the DOW closed above 10000 again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. They have been trying to panic investors for the last week. The MSNBC Wall Street lineup of experts are about as "expert" as a herd of buffalo.
We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
We expect economic signs will show improvement this week.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 440K 475k 465k 483k 480k
Initial claims were down this week.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4538K 4550k 4590k 4617k 4602k -
Seventy weeks of unemployment compensation may be increased to 99 weeks to ease the contraction but that will raise the recorded unemployment rate because the number will be truthful. Throwing people off of unemployment can make homelessness and credit defaults worse.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 11, 2010
All the American markets are still a few percent above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the unadjusted "lying" market indices stayed above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will still not know it is critical time to take profits… but we will. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. We expect the coming rally to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when we intend to be selling.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 1.9%, India up 1.5, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are mixed in the range from -0.2% to +0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
During the first three days this week the US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Now the US markets appear poised to advance. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.4% at 9 AM EST.
In written congressional testimony, Bernanke described how the Fed will use tools such as interest it pays on banks’ deposits to tighten credit “at some point.” A potential familiar increase in the Fed’s discount rate would be part of the “normalization” of lending “before long” and wouldn’t signal a change in the outlook for monetary policy. The first major control for bring down expansion will be by raising the interest rate paid on funds deposited by banks at the Fed, as well as so-called reverse repurchase agreements that temporarily drain cash from the banking system.
The Fed, in the near term, will not sell the $1.43 trillion of housing debt being purchased through next month but instead will wait at least until after policy tightening has gotten under way and the economy is clearly in a sustainable recovery. Fed officials may decide in the future to sell securities.
Bernanke said they might first test the tools for draining reserves on a limited basis. That may start a pre-mature stock market decline. But as the time for the removal of policy accommodation draws near, those operations could be scaled up to drain more significant volumes of reserve balances to provide tighter control over short-term interest rates.
Congress granted the Fed this power in October 2008 as part of the law creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to then execute the actual firming of policy by raising the interest rate on bank reserves. The first thing that will happen is that there will be a language change, taking ‘extended period’ out” of the Fed’s public policy statement. The changes in the interest rate will be broadly telegraphed.
Bernanke said the Fed might temporarily replace the federal funds rate as a policy guide with interest it pays on banks’ deposits should fed funds become a “less reliable indicator than usual.” The goal is a 3% economic expansion rate this year.
World Outlook
China charges Australian mining firm with having corrupt salesmen that demand bribes and kickbacks. Lets hope they have filmed the proof of corruption before they take them out and shoot them. That must send a chill down the backs of corrupt individuals. Perhaps they will arrest some of Obama's gang from Chicago when they get a taxpayer-funded tour of China. Perhaps the entire ACORN organization can be sent to China to experience true socialist justice when socialists write their own rules and pass their own version of a Constitution.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas a third time and rebounded again yesterday. Volume dropped slightly as the markets ended about 0.2% lower on Wednesday. The October 30 lows held with a few percent margin and the DOW closed above 10000 again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. They have been trying to panic investors for the last week. The MSNBC Wall Street lineup of experts are about as "expert" as a herd of buffalo.
We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
We expect economic signs will show improvement this week.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 440K 475k 465k 483k 480k
Initial claims were down this week.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4538K 4550k 4590k 4617k 4602k -
Seventy weeks of unemployment compensation may be increased to 99 weeks to ease the contraction but that will raise the recorded unemployment rate because the number will be truthful. Throwing people off of unemployment can make homelessness and credit defaults worse.
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 11, 2010
All the American markets are still a few percent above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the unadjusted "lying" market indices stayed above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will still not know it is critical time to take profits… but we will. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 low. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. We expect the coming rally to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when we intend to be selling.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 1.9%, India up 1.5, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are mixed in the range from -0.2% to +0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
During the first three days this week the US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Now the US markets appear poised to advance. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.4% at 9 AM EST.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Dodd, Toyota, and F---ing Global Warming Retards (to use Obama administration language), and other socialists corrupt everything they touch.
Dodd, Toyota, and F---ing Global Warming Retards (to use Obama administration language), and other socialists corrupt everything they touch.
Science, ethics, politics, business: everything is corrupted by the touch of the socialists.
Pseudo science is the result of the pseudo ethics of socialists taking power again in developed nations.
Manipulation of data to cut corners is not just a problem of those who would indite humans for natural global warming; it is now affecting the quality of products and services.
It is becoming increasingly clear that those who blame humanity for nature's glacial cycle that periodically cleanses the world of nature's rejected life forms are also at work in Japanese corporations such as Toyota. If the data deviates from the consensus expectation it is easier and cheaper for pseudo scientists and pseudo-engineers to adjust the data than it is to explain and fix the problem that the raw data is shouting about. Thus problems with Lexus brakes have been hidden by the same techniques F---ing Global Warming Retards use (to use Obama administration language).
World Outlook
Socialism in Greece and Italy causes the same culture of lying and cheating to avoid taxes as Obama and the democrat-socialists encourage by excusing Obama administration tax cheats who pay up when caught. Cheating on taxes in Greece and Italy is apparently the only intelligent thing to do when the socialists redistribute wealth to the indigent and people so lazy that they live in a country and don't even to bother to learn the national language. Can you imagine how lazy a person must be to go to France, Italy, or Greece and get into the welfare system without even learning the national language?
Only F---ing socialist retards allow that and that is one of the reasons the economies of socialist nations become shadow economies and ultimately disappear.
Greece cannot balance their budget because a majority of the people now avoids paying taxes by exchanging goods. The coat maker exchanges coats for the dress makers dresses. Both write it off as the waste in the manufacturing process to reduce marginal profit to close to zero. Their employees get to shop at the office for ten cents on the dollar and that offsets the lower wages that increase profits that the "production "waste" hides.
Connecticut Senator Dodd knows how it works. Countrywide gave him a VIP mortgage deal that saved Dodd a bundle that he did not report as income and has to this day refused to disclose to the public. Another socialist tax evasion trick Senator Dodd employed was buying a house in Ireland at half price to hide a gift from a political contributor who then got a favor from Senator Dodd paid for with taxpayer money. So in effect American taxpayers gave Senator Dodd both his houses in America and Ireland and Senator Dodd was able to cheat the IRS. That is what socialists do. They love to redistribute other people's money because it eases the guilt they feel for lying, cheating, and stealing from honest taxpayers.
Senator Dodd obviously believes, "Honest American English speaking taxpayers are F---ing rich Retards."
There has never been a brilliant socialist leader although some people confuse insanity and recklessness with intelligence. Hitler, Stalin, and Chavez were already known to be quite dull, bigoted, and paranoid when they rose to power. But Obama, all the same, chose to pose with Chavez and denounce America. We know the character of people from the choices they make.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas and rebounded again yesterday. Volume increased 25% as the markets rebounded Tuesday. The October 30 lows held and the DOW closed above 10000 again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
We expect economic signs will show improvement this week.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 10, 2010
All the American markets are above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the unadjusted "lying" market indices stayed above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will not know it is critical time to take profits but we will. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 lows. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. None of the lying raw DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ indices broke through their October lows. We expect the rally to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when they should be selling.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India down -0.8, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.7% to 1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
Monday, US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.1% at 9 AM EST.
Science, ethics, politics, business: everything is corrupted by the touch of the socialists.
Pseudo science is the result of the pseudo ethics of socialists taking power again in developed nations.
Manipulation of data to cut corners is not just a problem of those who would indite humans for natural global warming; it is now affecting the quality of products and services.
It is becoming increasingly clear that those who blame humanity for nature's glacial cycle that periodically cleanses the world of nature's rejected life forms are also at work in Japanese corporations such as Toyota. If the data deviates from the consensus expectation it is easier and cheaper for pseudo scientists and pseudo-engineers to adjust the data than it is to explain and fix the problem that the raw data is shouting about. Thus problems with Lexus brakes have been hidden by the same techniques F---ing Global Warming Retards use (to use Obama administration language).
World Outlook
Socialism in Greece and Italy causes the same culture of lying and cheating to avoid taxes as Obama and the democrat-socialists encourage by excusing Obama administration tax cheats who pay up when caught. Cheating on taxes in Greece and Italy is apparently the only intelligent thing to do when the socialists redistribute wealth to the indigent and people so lazy that they live in a country and don't even to bother to learn the national language. Can you imagine how lazy a person must be to go to France, Italy, or Greece and get into the welfare system without even learning the national language?
Only F---ing socialist retards allow that and that is one of the reasons the economies of socialist nations become shadow economies and ultimately disappear.
Greece cannot balance their budget because a majority of the people now avoids paying taxes by exchanging goods. The coat maker exchanges coats for the dress makers dresses. Both write it off as the waste in the manufacturing process to reduce marginal profit to close to zero. Their employees get to shop at the office for ten cents on the dollar and that offsets the lower wages that increase profits that the "production "waste" hides.
Connecticut Senator Dodd knows how it works. Countrywide gave him a VIP mortgage deal that saved Dodd a bundle that he did not report as income and has to this day refused to disclose to the public. Another socialist tax evasion trick Senator Dodd employed was buying a house in Ireland at half price to hide a gift from a political contributor who then got a favor from Senator Dodd paid for with taxpayer money. So in effect American taxpayers gave Senator Dodd both his houses in America and Ireland and Senator Dodd was able to cheat the IRS. That is what socialists do. They love to redistribute other people's money because it eases the guilt they feel for lying, cheating, and stealing from honest taxpayers.
Senator Dodd obviously believes, "Honest American English speaking taxpayers are F---ing rich Retards."
There has never been a brilliant socialist leader although some people confuse insanity and recklessness with intelligence. Hitler, Stalin, and Chavez were already known to be quite dull, bigoted, and paranoid when they rose to power. But Obama, all the same, chose to pose with Chavez and denounce America. We know the character of people from the choices they make.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas and rebounded again yesterday. Volume increased 25% as the markets rebounded Tuesday. The October 30 lows held and the DOW closed above 10000 again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
We expect economic signs will show improvement this week.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - -0.8 -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%
Wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell in December, prompting analysts to suggest the economy may have grown by more than estimated in the fourth quarter.
Inventories decreased 0.8% to $383.57 billion. Wall Street had expected a 0.5% increase in December wholesale inventories. Wholesale sales climbed by 0.8%.
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$40.2 -$32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in December, reflecting a jump in petroleum imports that swamped an eighth consecutive gain in exports. The gap widened to $40.2 billion during the month, the biggest in a year, from $36.4 billion in November,
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 10, 2010
All the American markets are above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the unadjusted "lying" market indices stayed above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will not know it is critical time to take profits but we will. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 lows. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. None of the lying raw DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ indices broke through their October lows. We expect the rally to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking it is safe to buy stocks just when they should be selling.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India down -0.8, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are up in the range from 0.7% to 1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
Monday, US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.1% at 9 AM EST.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Rahm Emanuel called Obama's left wing extremists f---ing retards.
Rahm got agitated last week when he was told that Obama's left wing extremist supporters were eager to attack the democrat-socialists who had become reluctant to continue to push Soviet Union style national health care through Congress.
Meanwhile Iran tested another potential A-bomb missile delivery system and President Obama said blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah (all with teleprompters of course). America still is recognized throughout the world as the leader in the field of medicine. But Rahm knows Obama's left wing extremists don't know that because they don't read, they are "brown shirts" that like to intimidate people but have to be told what to do. As a gay Jewish person, Rahm has little tolerance for what he calls the f---ing retards that would like to break some windows in Congress. He knows what the brown shirts did in Germany on "crystalnacht."
We think that while Rahm may have correctly assessed the intelligence of Obama's supporters he should watch what he says and he may be on his way out soon.
See Rahm's other quotes at:
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/rahmemanue409199.html
World Outlook
Obama's hero, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, declared a national “emergency” as the country’s water supply for hydroelectric dams dries up. In general, the socialists and communists are the dumbest and least educated who often quit school early. There has never been a brilliant socialist leader although some people confuse insanity and recklessness with intelligence. Hitler, Stalin, and Chavez were already known to be quite dull, bigoted, and paranoid when they rose to power. But Obama, all the same, chose to pose with Chavez and denounce America. We know the character of people from the choices they make.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas and rebounded again yesterday. Selling dried up as the volume of trades dropped over 30% Monday. But the October 30lows held again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and say the market is strong again instead of panicing people. We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - - 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% -
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - - $32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 9, 2010
The DOW still is 2.0% above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The S&P 500 is still 2.9% above its previous low which occurred October 30.The NASDAQ is still 4.4% above its previous low which occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the market indices stay above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will not know it is time to take profits. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 lows. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. Non of the lying raw DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ indices broke through their October lows. We expect a rally to begin soon to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over.
After the probable highs 2 to 4 months from now when we must take our profits we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal and Wall Street pronounces that their charts as technically broken. That will likely be an even better buying opportunity than we have at present. After that we would expect a lateral trading range through November. However the socialists may still wreak havoc and turn this recession into a depression before the voters can throw them all out.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.7, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are flat but with a smaller variance in the range from -0.2% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Monday, US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.4% at 7 AM EST.
Meanwhile Iran tested another potential A-bomb missile delivery system and President Obama said blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah (all with teleprompters of course). America still is recognized throughout the world as the leader in the field of medicine. But Rahm knows Obama's left wing extremists don't know that because they don't read, they are "brown shirts" that like to intimidate people but have to be told what to do. As a gay Jewish person, Rahm has little tolerance for what he calls the f---ing retards that would like to break some windows in Congress. He knows what the brown shirts did in Germany on "crystalnacht."
We think that while Rahm may have correctly assessed the intelligence of Obama's supporters he should watch what he says and he may be on his way out soon.
See Rahm's other quotes at:
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/rahmemanue409199.html
World Outlook
Obama's hero, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, declared a national “emergency” as the country’s water supply for hydroelectric dams dries up. In general, the socialists and communists are the dumbest and least educated who often quit school early. There has never been a brilliant socialist leader although some people confuse insanity and recklessness with intelligence. Hitler, Stalin, and Chavez were already known to be quite dull, bigoted, and paranoid when they rose to power. But Obama, all the same, chose to pose with Chavez and denounce America. We know the character of people from the choices they make.
Markets successfully tested their resistance areas and rebounded again yesterday. Selling dried up as the volume of trades dropped over 30% Monday. But the October 30lows held again. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and say the market is strong again instead of panicing people. We expect the market top for this year is less than four months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict. But if the FED begins to tighten at the end of the year the market will likely fall 6 months earlier.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
We expect more evidence this week that the economic lows are now behind us.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - - 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% -
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - - $32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 9, 2010
The DOW still is 2.0% above its previous 2-4 month cycle low that occurred October 30. The S&P 500 is still 2.9% above its previous low which occurred October 30.The NASDAQ is still 4.4% above its previous low which occurred October 30. The average investor does not know that on a market cash flow basis the market is already technically broken even if the market indices stay above the October 30 low. When the market rises close to the next high (in 2 to 4 months) they will not know it is time to take profits. After the next high point the subsequent decline will likely break the old October 30 lows and challenge even the July 2009 lows. That would occur with FED tightening and rising interest rates.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders formation and it plunged about 3% below. Non of the lying raw DOW, S&P, or NASDAQ indices broke through their October lows. We expect a rally to begin soon to lift the averages back close to previous highs. That will again mislead most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over.
After the probable highs 2 to 4 months from now when we must take our profits we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal and Wall Street pronounces that their charts as technically broken. That will likely be an even better buying opportunity than we have at present. After that we would expect a lateral trading range through November. However the socialists may still wreak havoc and turn this recession into a depression before the voters can throw them all out.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.7, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are flat but with a smaller variance in the range from -0.2% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
Monday, US markets successfully re-tested their lows. Today US pre-market futures are up about 0.4% at 7 AM EST.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Latest Wall Street nonsense reported is about Greece and Gold.
1) Wall Street nonsense attributes last week's stock decline to a country smaller in population or wealth than LA County in California. It cited Greece as the threat of runaway inflation caused by high national debt.
2) Wall Street nonsense told investors to stay away on Friday when the buying opportunity was greatest.
3) Wall Street nonsense #3 contradicts nonsense #1 with Wall Street saying gold prices have peaked just when gold is a buying opportunity. Inflation is expected to rise slowly until the second half of this year.
The best values generally come about six months before the prices move up
World Outlook
Markets stabilized throughout the world as we indicated was highly probable. Heavy hedge fund selling apparently succeeded last Friday to panic investors, smaller funds, and banks and the market closing averages ended above the October 30, 2009 lows as we predicted. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. We expect the market top for this year is less than three months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - - 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% -
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - - $32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 8, 2010
Canada's real estate prices have already recovered and are up 40% from their lows. But US Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. Will a US real estate recovery come quick enough to save commercial RE? We think that is quite possible and that at this moment residential Real Estate and an inflation hedge such as precious metals are bargains. Diamonds can no longer be trusted with corrupt, ignorant, and murderous African Moslems preying on the world. It is said that the average American receives one scam email each day with the majority originating in Moslem Nigeria where they like to burn Christian churches when they are full of people. It is difficult to get all the Nigerian garbage filtered as Spam.
We had an interim report Saturday Feb 6. Friday the market behaved pretty much as we expected. The DOW fell from1002.18 down to 9835.09 and we personally went to 85% invested. Then the DOW rose to close 10.05 points higher than the start; 10012.23.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal and it plunged about 3% below. The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) broke through too on Friday but advisors will not count that because the market ended higher at the close. We however see that as confirmation of our prediction that the next selling opportunity will be a high close to the last high and then a major selloff. We still expect a rally in the coming month bringing the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a cascading lower high. Then we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity than now. After that we would expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline in the averages through November elections and the US economy is drained of its $trillions in inflationary credit expansion. The socialists may still wreak havoc before the voters can throw them all out.
Asian markets were stable over night; Shanghai down -0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1, and Japan down -1%.
European markets are flat but with a high variance with the weaker countries down major countries up and the range from -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day. Friday US markets rebounded as expected after European markets closed.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
2) Wall Street nonsense told investors to stay away on Friday when the buying opportunity was greatest.
3) Wall Street nonsense #3 contradicts nonsense #1 with Wall Street saying gold prices have peaked just when gold is a buying opportunity. Inflation is expected to rise slowly until the second half of this year.
The best values generally come about six months before the prices move up
World Outlook
Markets stabilized throughout the world as we indicated was highly probable. Heavy hedge fund selling apparently succeeded last Friday to panic investors, smaller funds, and banks and the market closing averages ended above the October 30, 2009 lows as we predicted. Now the MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make an about face and pretend the market is strong again. We expect the market top for this year is less than three months away. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is still too far off to predict.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Forecast Expect Prior Revised From
Feb 9 10:00 AM Wholesl Inven Dec - - 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% -
Feb 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - - $32.0B -$35.5B -$36.4B -
Feb 10 10:30 AM Crude Invent 2/5 - NA NA 2.32M -
Feb 10 2:00 PM Treas Budg Jan - -$46.0B -$50.0B -$91.9B -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 02/06 - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/06 - 475k 465k 480k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA NA -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Contin Claims 1/30 - 4550k 4590k 4602k -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - - 0.1% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 11 8:30 AM Retal Sal ex-auto Jan - -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Busins Inven Dec - -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
Feb 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 75.0 75.0 74.4 -
Market forces Feb 8, 2010
Canada's real estate prices have already recovered and are up 40% from their lows. But US Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. Will a US real estate recovery come quick enough to save commercial RE? We think that is quite possible and that at this moment residential Real Estate and an inflation hedge such as precious metals are bargains. Diamonds can no longer be trusted with corrupt, ignorant, and murderous African Moslems preying on the world. It is said that the average American receives one scam email each day with the majority originating in Moslem Nigeria where they like to burn Christian churches when they are full of people. It is difficult to get all the Nigerian garbage filtered as Spam.
We had an interim report Saturday Feb 6. Friday the market behaved pretty much as we expected. The DOW fell from1002.18 down to 9835.09 and we personally went to 85% invested. Then the DOW rose to close 10.05 points higher than the start; 10012.23.
Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal and it plunged about 3% below. The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) broke through too on Friday but advisors will not count that because the market ended higher at the close. We however see that as confirmation of our prediction that the next selling opportunity will be a high close to the last high and then a major selloff. We still expect a rally in the coming month bringing the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a cascading lower high. Then we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity than now. After that we would expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline in the averages through November elections and the US economy is drained of its $trillions in inflationary credit expansion. The socialists may still wreak havoc before the voters can throw them all out.
Asian markets were stable over night; Shanghai down -0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1, and Japan down -1%.
European markets are flat but with a high variance with the weaker countries down major countries up and the range from -1% to +1% this morning about half way through their day. Friday US markets rebounded as expected after European markets closed.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Special Saturday Update
Market forces Feb 6, 2010
Friday the market behaved pretty much as we expected. The DOW fell from1002.18 down to 9835.09 and we personally went to 85% invested. Then the DOW rose to close 10.05 points higher than the start; 10012.23.
The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) fell through the neckline but closed still 0.5% above the sell signal threshold of the October 30 low. The uncorrected stock index was deceptively optimistic but the correct index says that after the next high that the market will break down again and likely set a new low… lower than October 30. We still expect that rally in the coming month will bring the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading and luring most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. They will buy high. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show an ominous cascading lower high. That could be a few weeks away and would be the next profit taking opportunity. Then hold on to your hat again!
Friday the market behaved pretty much as we expected. The DOW fell from1002.18 down to 9835.09 and we personally went to 85% invested. Then the DOW rose to close 10.05 points higher than the start; 10012.23.
The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) fell through the neckline but closed still 0.5% above the sell signal threshold of the October 30 low. The uncorrected stock index was deceptively optimistic but the correct index says that after the next high that the market will break down again and likely set a new low… lower than October 30. We still expect that rally in the coming month will bring the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading and luring most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. They will buy high. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show an ominous cascading lower high. That could be a few weeks away and would be the next profit taking opportunity. Then hold on to your hat again!
Friday, February 5, 2010
Socialists continue to persecute former Bank of America Chairman Kenneth Lewis
Socialists continue to persecute former Bank of America Chairman Kenneth Lewis because he exposed the socialist's bungled unconstitutional bank nationalization attempt.
BOA chairman Lewis was driven out by the socialists because he dared to expose that he and other bank chairmen had been coerced to sign agreements giving the FED control and because he claimed they then forced him to complete the Merrill Lynch takeover under threats of being forced out by the Obama administration. Then they forced him out of BOA by harassing BOA with frivolous federal lawsuits. Now the socialists are suing Lewis personally because he succumbed to their Treasury Department pressure and allowed the twisted lunatics of the FED to expose BOA investors to higher risk and potential losses. Attorney General Cuomo of NY is leading the persecution of former BOA chairman Lewis. Americans need to throw these leftist thugs and butt-heads out of government this year.
World Outlook
Markets dropped sharply throughout the world as we warned was highly probable. Transaction volume is a lie detector and it was telling us that the bull market since last September was a lie. This current panic is caused by heavy hedge fund selling apparently intended to panic investors, smaller funds, and banks. We expect an early selloff today but we expect the closing market averages to be above the October 30, 2009 lows.
This decline may panic China's communist leaders and they are likely to ease off soon on their commercial loan policies. In a few weeks we should see Asian stocks begin to advance again. We will then look back and see today as a selling climax. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is too far off to predict.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -30K -61K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 50.5 52.1 51.0 49.8
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 2.32M -3.89M
The service job market improved less than expected and oil inventories have increased putting a downward pressure on commodities.
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 480K 460K 455K 472K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/15 4602K 4550K 4581K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -4.4% -2.0% -3.5% -1.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 5, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) has a potential 1% to fall left before giving a sell signal for the outside world. We expect the markets to close today slightly above the previous October 30, 2009 lows so that the uncorrected stock indices will be optimistic and not give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That low will be a buying opportunity and the uncorrected indices will still likely be over optimistic.
Panic selling got so bad yesterday that we almost got a buy signal for the market being oversold. We started buying in the last half-hour. A Market Cash Flow buy signal could be as close as today. If not, we still expect a rally in the coming month bringing the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a cascading lower high. That could be a few weeks away and would be the next profit taking opportunity.
Then we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity than now. After that we would expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline in the averages through November elections.
This is still a trading and short-term investment market. The socialists can still wreak havoc on the American economy with their short attention span and frenzied approach to destroying free enterprise and traditional American liberties.
Asian markets were down sharply over night; Shanghai down -1.9%, Hong Kong down -3.3%, India down -2.7, and Japan down -2.9%.
European markets are down sharply with the average in a range from -1.2% to -2.4% this morning about half way through their day. We do not expect US markets to rebound until after European markets close.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% today at 9 AM EST.
BOA chairman Lewis was driven out by the socialists because he dared to expose that he and other bank chairmen had been coerced to sign agreements giving the FED control and because he claimed they then forced him to complete the Merrill Lynch takeover under threats of being forced out by the Obama administration. Then they forced him out of BOA by harassing BOA with frivolous federal lawsuits. Now the socialists are suing Lewis personally because he succumbed to their Treasury Department pressure and allowed the twisted lunatics of the FED to expose BOA investors to higher risk and potential losses. Attorney General Cuomo of NY is leading the persecution of former BOA chairman Lewis. Americans need to throw these leftist thugs and butt-heads out of government this year.
World Outlook
Markets dropped sharply throughout the world as we warned was highly probable. Transaction volume is a lie detector and it was telling us that the bull market since last September was a lie. This current panic is caused by heavy hedge fund selling apparently intended to panic investors, smaller funds, and banks. We expect an early selloff today but we expect the closing market averages to be above the October 30, 2009 lows.
This decline may panic China's communist leaders and they are likely to ease off soon on their commercial loan policies. In a few weeks we should see Asian stocks begin to advance again. We will then look back and see today as a selling climax. But be wary. The next decline could bring us close to July 2009 lows. That is too far off to predict.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -30K -61K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 50.5 52.1 51.0 49.8
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 2.32M -3.89M
The service job market improved less than expected and oil inventories have increased putting a downward pressure on commodities.
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 480K 460K 455K 472K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/15 4602K 4550K 4581K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -4.4% -2.0% -3.5% -1.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 5, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. Our corrected NYSE cash flow index already gave its Head & Shoulder neck breakdown sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The lying raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) has a potential 1% to fall left before giving a sell signal for the outside world. We expect the markets to close today slightly above the previous October 30, 2009 lows so that the uncorrected stock indices will be optimistic and not give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That low will be a buying opportunity and the uncorrected indices will still likely be over optimistic.
Panic selling got so bad yesterday that we almost got a buy signal for the market being oversold. We started buying in the last half-hour. A Market Cash Flow buy signal could be as close as today. If not, we still expect a rally in the coming month bringing the averages close to or slightly exceeding previous highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a cascading lower high. That could be a few weeks away and would be the next profit taking opportunity.
Then we might expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity than now. After that we would expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline in the averages through November elections.
This is still a trading and short-term investment market. The socialists can still wreak havoc on the American economy with their short attention span and frenzied approach to destroying free enterprise and traditional American liberties.
Asian markets were down sharply over night; Shanghai down -1.9%, Hong Kong down -3.3%, India down -2.7, and Japan down -2.9%.
European markets are down sharply with the average in a range from -1.2% to -2.4% this morning about half way through their day. We do not expect US markets to rebound until after European markets close.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% today at 9 AM EST.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Bank of England Halts flooding of their money supply via over used Bond Purchase Program
The annual inflation rate in Britain has risen above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Faced with rising inflation the Bank of England announced that it would not extend its massive buying spree of government bonds that was intended as an economic stimulus.
The bank said that their past purchases, together with the current low level of bank rate, would continue to impart a substantial monetary stimulus to the economy for some time to come.
World Outlook
Stocks rose this week on very low volume and declined on lower volume that generally means the investors are not optimistic. China continues to show signs of a fracturing façade. They are acting hostile over The US sales of defensive weapons to Taiwan. A few of their banks were downgraded by rating agencies. Some of their stocks have been tumbling.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected. Asian markets were down sharply last night
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -40K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 50.5 52.1 51.0 49.8
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 2.32M -3.89M -3.89M
The service job market improved less than expected and oil inventories have increased putting a downward pressure on commodities.
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 4, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. The Wall Street Journal ran a story this week showing an example of how investors lost everything in a commercial real estate investment.
We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. Our corrected NYSE index already gave its sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has a potential 4.3% to fall before giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market to decline soon but not by the full 4.3% so that the uncorrected stock indices will be optimistic and not give a sell signal in the next week. That low will be a buying opportunity and the uncorrected indices will still likely be optimistic.
Then we expect a rally close to or slightly exceeding previous index highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a lower cascading high. That would be in a few weeks and would be the next profit taking opportunity. Then we expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity. And then we expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline for the year through November elections. This is still a trading and short-term investors market. The socialists can still wreak havoc on the American economy with their short attention span and frenzied approach to destroying free enterprise and traditional American liberties.
Asian markets were down sharply over night; Shanghai down -0.3%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -1.6, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down sharply with the average in a range from -0.7% to -1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.6% today at 8:45 AM EST.
The bank said that their past purchases, together with the current low level of bank rate, would continue to impart a substantial monetary stimulus to the economy for some time to come.
World Outlook
Stocks rose this week on very low volume and declined on lower volume that generally means the investors are not optimistic. China continues to show signs of a fracturing façade. They are acting hostile over The US sales of defensive weapons to Taiwan. A few of their banks were downgraded by rating agencies. Some of their stocks have been tumbling.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected. Asian markets were down sharply last night
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -40K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 50.5 52.1 51.0 49.8
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 2.32M -3.89M -3.89M
The service job market improved less than expected and oil inventories have increased putting a downward pressure on commodities.
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 4, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. The Wall Street Journal ran a story this week showing an example of how investors lost everything in a commercial real estate investment.
We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. Our corrected NYSE index already gave its sell signal on Jan 29 when the NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has a potential 4.3% to fall before giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market to decline soon but not by the full 4.3% so that the uncorrected stock indices will be optimistic and not give a sell signal in the next week. That low will be a buying opportunity and the uncorrected indices will still likely be optimistic.
Then we expect a rally close to or slightly exceeding previous index highs and thus again misleading most investors into thinking that the selling pressure is over. At those levels our volume-corrected index will likely show a lower cascading high. That would be in a few weeks and would be the next profit taking opportunity. Then we expect a deeper decline where all the US indices give a head-and-shoulders sell signal. That will likely be a better buying opportunity. And then we expect a lateral trading range with a small net decline for the year through November elections. This is still a trading and short-term investors market. The socialists can still wreak havoc on the American economy with their short attention span and frenzied approach to destroying free enterprise and traditional American liberties.
Asian markets were down sharply over night; Shanghai down -0.3%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -1.6, and Japan down -0.5%.
European markets are down sharply with the average in a range from -0.7% to -1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.6% today at 8:45 AM EST.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
It could take ten years to recover from Obama's socialist and communist brainwashing
Mediocre students do not challenge their teacher's beliefs when they are bombarded with the lunacy of the left. They lack the ability of critical thinking. Of course the smart students are smart enough not to let their professor know they think their professor is a raving lunatic. Smart students leave rabid dogs lie but privately apply critical thinking skills to deflect detection and to produce cogent intelligent reports that the lunatic professors either grade highly (fairly) or grade poorly at their own risk. There are honest intelligent faculty members at most universities who will stand up for smart students who the lunatic intellectually corrupt leftists have unfairly graded. But smart students only report the lunatic left professors confidentially and let the faculty give the lunatic leftists the boot in due time. President Obama apparently was a mediocre student and swallowed the leftist lunacy hook, line, and sinker. Like the ancient Mayan's, the leftists believe human sacrifices are needed to appease the climate gods.
World Outlook
Stocks rose this week on very low volume that generally means the investors are not optimistic. China continues to show signs of a fracturing façade. They are acting hostile over The US sales of defensive weapons to Taiwan. A few of their banks were downgraded by rating agencies. Some of their stocks have been tumbling over night.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -40K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 3, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. The Wall Street Journal ran a story this morning where the investors lost everything in commercial real estate investment. We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has 5.2% to fall yet before giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market can decline and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect another decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 2.3%, Hong Kong up 2.2%, India up 2.1, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% today at 9 AM EST.
World Outlook
Stocks rose this week on very low volume that generally means the investors are not optimistic. China continues to show signs of a fracturing façade. They are acting hostile over The US sales of defensive weapons to Taiwan. A few of their banks were downgraded by rating agencies. Some of their stocks have been tumbling over night.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec 1.0% -3.2% 1.1% -16.4% -16.0%
Half the small improvement in pending home sales was accomplished by revising the last report down 0.4%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan -70.9% 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -22K -60K -40K -84K
Good news- Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 22,000 jobs in January, in line with forecasts, according to data from a private report based on payrolls.
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 3, 2010
Commercial real estate failures seem to be about ready to surge. The Wall Street Journal ran a story this morning where the investors lost everything in commercial real estate investment. We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has 5.2% to fall yet before giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market can decline and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect another decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
Asian markets were up over night; Shanghai up 2.3%, Hong Kong up 2.2%, India up 2.1, and Japan up 0.3%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% today at 9 AM EST.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Obama plans to hurt American Businesses that already pay the highest corporate taxes in the world.
Obama's Budget Proposes $1.9 Trillion Tax Increase over the next decade and wants to take in an additional $400 billion from businesses as they propose a crackdown on international business outsourcing and higher taxes on American international companies. Bank of America Corp., GE, UTX, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Microsoft Corp. would be among the companies paying $400 billion in additional taxes under President Barack Obama’s $3.8 trillion budget.
World Outlook
US stocks logged their worst month since February of 2009 as investors shrugged off some mixed economic data and technology stocks took another hit.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec -3.2% 1.1% -16.0%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -60K -40K -84K
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 2, 2010
We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has 3.8% to fall to the neckline and the raw NASDAQ has 6% yet that it could fall without giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market will decline up to another 3% to 6% (the raw measured neckline) and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect a final decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
The longer Obama continues stimulating his non-productive voter base rather than giving tax relief to productive Americans the longer the depression can last. The longer the FED waits to take action to slow inflation the more difficult it will be to control and the longer and more severe the FED contraction will ultimately be. Obama thinks giving taxpayer money to ACORN and other indigents that have no job skills puts more money into circulation… Duhhh? Needless to say… only 8% of Obama's staff ever held an honest private industry job.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Asian markets were mixed over night; Shanghai down -0.2% to another 4 month low, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India down -1.2%, Taiwan down -1,3%, and Japan up 1.6%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up again about 0.3% today at 7 AM EST.
American morning futures and European markets are not reliable predictors when market volume is so low. But they do tell which way speculators are leaning.
World Outlook
US stocks logged their worst month since February of 2009 as investors shrugged off some mixed economic data and technology stocks took another hit.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last RevisedFrom
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -1.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%- -0.6%
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 58.4 56.1 55.5 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec -3.2% 1.1% -16.0%
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -60K -40K -84K
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B -
Market forces Feb 2, 2010
We remain 65% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE (not corrected for trading volume) still has 3.8% to fall to the neckline and the raw NASDAQ has 6% yet that it could fall without giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market will decline up to another 3% to 6% (the raw measured neckline) and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect a final decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
The longer Obama continues stimulating his non-productive voter base rather than giving tax relief to productive Americans the longer the depression can last. The longer the FED waits to take action to slow inflation the more difficult it will be to control and the longer and more severe the FED contraction will ultimately be. Obama thinks giving taxpayer money to ACORN and other indigents that have no job skills puts more money into circulation… Duhhh? Needless to say… only 8% of Obama's staff ever held an honest private industry job.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Asian markets were mixed over night; Shanghai down -0.2% to another 4 month low, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India down -1.2%, Taiwan down -1,3%, and Japan up 1.6%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up again about 0.3% today at 7 AM EST.
American morning futures and European markets are not reliable predictors when market volume is so low. But they do tell which way speculators are leaning.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Obama chooses the Japanese solution for deflation: high debt by quadrupling the deficit and 20 years stagnation.
President Barack Obama proposes a $3.8 trillion annual spending program today that gives trillions to stimulate welfare, government job expansion, community activism, illegal voter registration and funding for union pensions and health care. That is all his administration can do because that is all they know. Most in his administration have never had an honest job in private industry and think that the profit motive is something evil.
World Outlook
US stocks logged their worst month since February of 2009 as investors shrugged off some mixed economic data and technology stocks took another hit.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec - 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.0% 0.3% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%-
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 56.1 55.2 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec -3.2% 1.1% -16.0%
Feb 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jan 4.14M
Feb 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jan - 4.49M
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -60K -40K -84K
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B
Market forces Feb 1, 2010
We remain 70% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE index (not corrected for trading volume) still has 3% to fall to the neckline and the raw NASDAQ has 5% yet that it could fall without giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market will decline another 3% to 5% (the raw measured necklines) and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect a final decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
The longer Obama continues stimulating his non-productive voter base rather than giving tax relief to productive Americans the longer the depression can last. The longer the FED waits to take action to slow inflation the more difficult it will be to control and the longer and more severe the FED contraction will ultimately be.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -1.6% to a 4 month low, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.1%, and Japan down -0.1%.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up again about 0.3% today at 6:30 AM EST.
American morning futures and European markets are not reliable predictors when market volume is so low. But they do tell which way speculators are leaning.
World Outlook
US stocks logged their worst month since February of 2009 as investors shrugged off some mixed economic data and technology stocks took another hit.
Coming Week of Market Reports:
Date Time (ET) Statistic When Actual Forecast MktExpects Last
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec - 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Feb 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec 0.0% 0.3% 0.5%
Feb 1 10:00 AM Constr Spend Dec -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%-
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan 56.1 55.2 55.9
Feb 2 10:00 AM Pend Hm Sales Dec -3.2% 1.1% -16.0%
Feb 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jan 4.14M
Feb 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jan - 4.49M
Feb 3 7:30 AM Challeng Job Cuts Jan 72.9%
Feb 3 8:15 AM ADP Employ Cng Jan -60K -40K -84K
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan 51.2 50.9 50.1
Feb 3 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 1/29 -3.89M
Feb 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/30 460K 454K 470K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/30 4550K 4600K 4602K
Feb 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 6.2% 6.0% 8.1%
Feb 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Q4 -2.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan -40K 13K -85K
Feb 5 8:30 AM Unemploy Rate Jan 10.1% 10.0% 10.0%
Feb 5 8:30 AM Avg Workweek Jan 33.2 33.2 33.2
Feb 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec -$12.3B -$9.5B -$17.5B
Market forces Feb 1, 2010
We remain 70% out of the market but are setting price targets for buying. The NYSE (corrected for trading volume) broke through the neckline of a head and shoulders sell signal. The raw NYSE index (not corrected for trading volume) still has 3% to fall to the neckline and the raw NASDAQ has 5% yet that it could fall without giving a sell signal. For that reason we expect the market will decline another 3% to 5% (the raw measured necklines) and then rally close to previous highs and thus mislead most investors into thinking that the selling is over. Then we expect a final decline followed by a lateral market movement and a net decline through November elections.
The longer Obama continues stimulating his non-productive voter base rather than giving tax relief to productive Americans the longer the depression can last. The longer the FED waits to take action to slow inflation the more difficult it will be to control and the longer and more severe the FED contraction will ultimately be.
All US stocks dependent on China will likely be much more adversely affected by China's cooling off period than China itself will be effected.
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -1.6% to a 4 month low, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.1%, and Japan down -0.1%.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up again about 0.3% today at 6:30 AM EST.
American morning futures and European markets are not reliable predictors when market volume is so low. But they do tell which way speculators are leaning.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)