60 Minutes said
American and European countries are cleaning up their green house gasses by outsourcing the dirty and toxic work to developing countries. Communist China was consequently shown worldwide to be the filthiest country with the most toxic air in the world and of course the most socialist country as well with thugs like corrupt ACORN running their the business. The news helped US treasury sales causing interest rates to decline.
Reuters said: Consumer spending is up, but morale sinks. Worries over high unemployment battered U.S. consumer confidence to a four-month trough in August, while spending rose modestly in July, indicating the economy faced a rocky road to recovery. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its final index of confidence for August fell to 65.7, the lowest since April, from 66.0 in July.
"This tells me consumers are still in a rebuilding phase. It's clear to me that we cannot count on growth through next year as long as consumers are still on the ropes," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
Bloomberg said: The bounce from the first August measure indicates consumers turned more optimistic toward the end of the month as data showed home prices settling and as they benefited from the “cash-for-clunkers” plan. At the same time, a jobless rate that’s projected to reach 10 percent by early 2010 and stagnant wages may make the gains difficult to maintain. The bond market rejects Bernanke recovery as 10% jobless rate looms. The bond market isn’t buying all the optimism over the end of the global recession. The Federal Reserve will be unable to prevent the trillions of dollars in government stimulus pumped into the U.S. economy from stoking inflation later in 2010, a survey of business economists showed. Currently the mutual funds, pensions and endowments are unloading U.S. consumer stocks at the fastest pace in at least 14 years.
First on FOX: SEC Chief Mary Schapiro says we need more regulators in plans for reviews and new Wall Street regulations.
Market forces August 31
We hope you took your recent spectacular short term profits and have cash set aside. It is time to be cautious. Japan elects a lunatic leftist socialist government for the first time yesterday,
Asian markets were down sharply last night. Communist China down -6.7%, socialist Japan down 0.5%, India down -1.6%, corrupt Jakarta down -1.6%, and Hong Kong down -1.9%. While the mainland Chinese have the traditional Stalinist government run economy, Hong Kong has Hitler's version of socialism where the government supervises existing private management. Hitler's version is also the type Obama chose for the USA and is set up to allow private capital investment while the government and workers hold control.
China realizes many of their companies are insolvent and that they need to be shut down. This is their first reality check and their market could drop 60% to 80% as happened in Russia when they had their first reality check in the 1990's.
European markets are currently mixed in a range from +0.8% to -1.6% this morning.
US market futures were moving lower at 7AM EST to about -0.6% before the opening today.
Now is the time to finish taking profits to have cash. A sharp decline is now possible as funds are fully invested and have hair-trigger stop sell orders in at about -3%. Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically when they are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession. As markets recover it is necessary to estimate the potential stock price appreciation level. Typically we are now seeing a 5% to 10% rise relative to previous highs and then a rapid fall back as hedge funds unload shares near the price highs.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Recent gains are based on speculation that stagflation is about to begin.
A rally in commodities that started late Thursday continued overnight in both Asia and Europe, helping boost European markets and early trading in U.S. equities as well. As of 7AM EST the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.3%.
Oil futures were up more than 1% to $73.26 a barrel while gold futures were up 0.7% to $953.60. Futures for copper were up 3.6% in early market action. The cause of recent commodity price increases has been weakness in the U.S. dollar due to record deficit spending.
Market forces August 28
It is time to be cautious. Asian markets were mixed last night. Communist China down -2.9%, Japan up 0.6%. The Yen climbed on worries that rally has overtaken recovery. China is beginning to realize many of their companies are insolvent and that they need to be shut down. This will be their first reality check and their market could drop 60% to 80% as happened in Russia when they had their first reality check in the 1990's.
European markets are currently up 1% to +1.4% this morning where rising commodity prices and good bank interest spreads provide the gains.
US market futures were moving slightly higher at 7AM EST to about 0.3% before the opening today.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. But China has many start-up companies that are failing and the government is unable to privatize thus far because they want to keep control of any successful companies. Privatizing cannot be successful then the Chinese only allow failing companies to privatize.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically when they are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession. As markets recover it is necessary to estimate the potential stock price appreciation level. Typically we are now seeing a 5% to 10% rise relative to previous highs and then a rapid fall back as hedge funds unload shares near the price highs. Then near the previous lows the hedge funds get back in causing an initial spike upward. Then Jim Cramer and others tell investors to get back into the stock and the cycle repeats itself. The funds tend to eventually run up a favorable sector until it is well over valued and then when hedge funds bail out they often switch to an undervalued sector. Recently they have rotated frequently between cyclicals (low-end retail stores and food), technology, financials, and commodities.
Oil futures were up more than 1% to $73.26 a barrel while gold futures were up 0.7% to $953.60. Futures for copper were up 3.6% in early market action. The cause of recent commodity price increases has been weakness in the U.S. dollar due to record deficit spending.
Market forces August 28
It is time to be cautious. Asian markets were mixed last night. Communist China down -2.9%, Japan up 0.6%. The Yen climbed on worries that rally has overtaken recovery. China is beginning to realize many of their companies are insolvent and that they need to be shut down. This will be their first reality check and their market could drop 60% to 80% as happened in Russia when they had their first reality check in the 1990's.
European markets are currently up 1% to +1.4% this morning where rising commodity prices and good bank interest spreads provide the gains.
US market futures were moving slightly higher at 7AM EST to about 0.3% before the opening today.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. But China has many start-up companies that are failing and the government is unable to privatize thus far because they want to keep control of any successful companies. Privatizing cannot be successful then the Chinese only allow failing companies to privatize.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically when they are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession. As markets recover it is necessary to estimate the potential stock price appreciation level. Typically we are now seeing a 5% to 10% rise relative to previous highs and then a rapid fall back as hedge funds unload shares near the price highs. Then near the previous lows the hedge funds get back in causing an initial spike upward. Then Jim Cramer and others tell investors to get back into the stock and the cycle repeats itself. The funds tend to eventually run up a favorable sector until it is well over valued and then when hedge funds bail out they often switch to an undervalued sector. Recently they have rotated frequently between cyclicals (low-end retail stores and food), technology, financials, and commodities.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Wall Street and Bank management incompetence is proportional to the bonus check.
The financial, commodity, energy, and wireless sectors of the stock market are now highly overvalued thanks to spin. If the stimulus package ever works then real growth will be in the sectors that create jobs. The federal funds flowing into the banks and Wall Street is being scaled back now because it has created gross excesses and unearned bonuses from all that money Obama is suddenly ashamed he threw at them. Obama plans to cut $250 billion in what had been set aside for future TARP bank aid. After all, the more incompetent the bank and wall street management is... the more likely they attribute the firms profits to themselves rather than from great Fed interest spreads and big American taxpayer bank welfare checks to get the banks re-started. Obama and the taxpayers want Wall Street and the banks to put the money into the economy not their pockets… DUUUHHHHHH.
Jim Cramer was right. Wall Street Journal truth does nothing to help inflate stock prices and bonus checks for incompetent fund managers. Little white lies and half truths (spin) is what gets the US market up 50% and China penny stocks up 80% in just 5 months. For instance if new home sales went up because prices fell 30% from their peaks, forget their peaks. Only report the prices down 12% in the last year. That way Wall Street can falsely spin it like prices have stabilized while sales are increasing. Certainly don't mention that the new homebuilders are hemorrhaging because the new home sales prices are lower than the cost to build the new homes. Yes Cramer is right. Telling the truth about the dismal economy cannot sustain current price levels.
One thing is sure about this current administration. While they burden the nation with debt, wealth redistribution, and corruption they will spare no effort to pay the health care costs of illegal aliens, and will release all dedicated anti-American terrorists and captured combatants and will punish those nasty American CIA intelligence agents for nine successful years of keeping terrorism out of the USA. With the Obama administration no good deed will go unpunished.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist and other lunatic left policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this that dare to criticize waste and fraud. And apparently someone reported us for the crime of anti socialism. For more information use these terms in your web search.
Foreign policy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 27
The following is worth repeating because it explains the recent run-up in the face of continuing world economic decline. Twelve months ago the financial meltdown began. Consequently any economic statistic that is quoted on a 12-month basis will actually look more favorable on a relative basis because 12 months ago it was such a disastrous rate of decline. So while the recession is continuing the changes relative to 12 months ago gives stock hawkers and spin masters leeway for a lot of positive spin. The false appearance of recovery is due to quoting the change in 12-month statistics. When that doesn't work raw month to month changes (rather than seasonally adjusted changes) is sometimes used to distort the reporting to give it the Jim Cramer spin factor. The secret to recent spectacular stock price rises has been Jim Cramer type spin not Wall Street Journal type truthful journalism.
This spin factor could backfire and destroy the year-end rally because last year the sharpest declines were over by the end of the year. So on a relative basis the declines will look worse this November and December unless they switch from a 12-month relative basis to a new spin methodology. What will they dream up next? Whatever it is we can expect a sharp market drop at any time because spin has propped up the market with fiction and false hope. Spin is what got Obama elected too and now we look ahead to several $trillion just in budget deficits not counting the $trillions in on going bank bailouts and job stimulation projects.
Asian markets were down in the range of -0.7% for China to -1.6% for Japan last night. The Yen climbed on worries that rally has overtaken recovery. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan dropped 0.2 percent. It has lost roughly 3 percent since hitting an 11-month high earlier this month amid investor worries that share prices have run too far ahead of economic fundamentals.
European markets are currently flat -1%1 to +0.3% awaiting direction from the American markets. Consumer spending is down.
US market futures are moving lower at 7AM EST to about -0.2% before the opening today.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. That has faded. Jim Cramer thinks the Apple wireless explosion is due to fashion conscious teenage girls who buy electronic gadgets to be color coordinated. We believe those industry sectors had their run. Now the $trillions of stimulation are starting to be directed to the American green industries. Lets hope some of that welfare gets into the economy not just into the bonuses of corporate management.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically when they are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession.
Jim Cramer was right. Wall Street Journal truth does nothing to help inflate stock prices and bonus checks for incompetent fund managers. Little white lies and half truths (spin) is what gets the US market up 50% and China penny stocks up 80% in just 5 months. For instance if new home sales went up because prices fell 30% from their peaks, forget their peaks. Only report the prices down 12% in the last year. That way Wall Street can falsely spin it like prices have stabilized while sales are increasing. Certainly don't mention that the new homebuilders are hemorrhaging because the new home sales prices are lower than the cost to build the new homes. Yes Cramer is right. Telling the truth about the dismal economy cannot sustain current price levels.
One thing is sure about this current administration. While they burden the nation with debt, wealth redistribution, and corruption they will spare no effort to pay the health care costs of illegal aliens, and will release all dedicated anti-American terrorists and captured combatants and will punish those nasty American CIA intelligence agents for nine successful years of keeping terrorism out of the USA. With the Obama administration no good deed will go unpunished.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist and other lunatic left policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this that dare to criticize waste and fraud. And apparently someone reported us for the crime of anti socialism. For more information use these terms in your web search.
Foreign policy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 27
The following is worth repeating because it explains the recent run-up in the face of continuing world economic decline. Twelve months ago the financial meltdown began. Consequently any economic statistic that is quoted on a 12-month basis will actually look more favorable on a relative basis because 12 months ago it was such a disastrous rate of decline. So while the recession is continuing the changes relative to 12 months ago gives stock hawkers and spin masters leeway for a lot of positive spin. The false appearance of recovery is due to quoting the change in 12-month statistics. When that doesn't work raw month to month changes (rather than seasonally adjusted changes) is sometimes used to distort the reporting to give it the Jim Cramer spin factor. The secret to recent spectacular stock price rises has been Jim Cramer type spin not Wall Street Journal type truthful journalism.
This spin factor could backfire and destroy the year-end rally because last year the sharpest declines were over by the end of the year. So on a relative basis the declines will look worse this November and December unless they switch from a 12-month relative basis to a new spin methodology. What will they dream up next? Whatever it is we can expect a sharp market drop at any time because spin has propped up the market with fiction and false hope. Spin is what got Obama elected too and now we look ahead to several $trillion just in budget deficits not counting the $trillions in on going bank bailouts and job stimulation projects.
Asian markets were down in the range of -0.7% for China to -1.6% for Japan last night. The Yen climbed on worries that rally has overtaken recovery. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan dropped 0.2 percent. It has lost roughly 3 percent since hitting an 11-month high earlier this month amid investor worries that share prices have run too far ahead of economic fundamentals.
European markets are currently flat -1%1 to +0.3% awaiting direction from the American markets. Consumer spending is down.
US market futures are moving lower at 7AM EST to about -0.2% before the opening today.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. That has faded. Jim Cramer thinks the Apple wireless explosion is due to fashion conscious teenage girls who buy electronic gadgets to be color coordinated. We believe those industry sectors had their run. Now the $trillions of stimulation are starting to be directed to the American green industries. Lets hope some of that welfare gets into the economy not just into the bonuses of corporate management.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically when they are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Once again some stock sectors and commodities seem far overpriced.
The copper producer, Antofagasta Plc, said first half profit fell 70 percent as metal prices slumped and output slipped. The China recovery based on infrastructure building apparently is not working any better than the Obama stimulus package. But the economic news on a relative 12-month basis is very good now because twelve months ago is when the economy tanked.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s threat to shun bankers who don’t restrain pay bonuses for their failures… was met with alarm by analysts and investors in the U.S., where Citigroup Inc. and six other bailed-out companies are being grilled by the government on how they compensate incompetent top-paid executives. Why don't they also look at the worm George Soros.
Tuesday’s projection by the CBO of the accumulated US fiscal deficit over the next 10 years has gone from the $4.4 trillion it projected in March to the new $7.1 trillion figure. It is a projection assuming the White House’s tax increases, health care rationing, and death advice for those with no hope are enacted. Some White House policies include questions to returning wounded soldiers to encourage physician-assisted suicide. Economists now say that the huge liabilities the U.S. is taking on to dig its way out of crisis could ultimately undermine faith in the dollar. Claire Dissaux, managing director of global economics and strategy for Millennium Global Investments Ltd. said, "The dollar's loss of influence is a steady and long-term trend."
Health care cost cutting will include end of life euthanasia counciling for seniors and wounded soldiers to eliminate the high cost of sustaining them. Government workers at the VA’s National Center for Ethics in Health Care have produced a 52-page end-of-life planning document, “Your Life, Your Choices.” Unfortunately, under President Obama, the VA is now using “Your Life, Your Choices.” The primary author of this workbook is Dr. Robert Pearlman who in 1996 advocated for physician-assisted suicide in Vacco v. Quill before the U.S. Supreme Court and is who known for his support of Obama's health-care rationing. Your Life, Your Choices” presents end-of-life choices in a way aimed at steering users toward predetermined conclusions. For example it lists various scenarios and asks users to then decide whether their own life would be “not worth living. The circumstances listed include ones common among the elderly and disabled: living in a nursing home, being in a wheelchair and not being able to “shake the blues.” There is a section which provocatively asks, “Have you ever heard anyone say, ‘If I’m a vegetable, pull the plug’?” There also are guilt-inducing scenarios such as “I can no longer contribute to my family’s well being,” “I am a severe financial burden on my family” and that the vet’s situation “causes severe emotional burden for my family.” Oregon has already implemented such policies to reduce state costs.
The Obama administration has little respect for the people who maintain USA national security. Obama also plans to cut veteran benefits and has started a new witch hunt in the CIA like what Clinton did that lead to first the bombing of the NY Trade Center and later the over 3000 American lives being lost on 9-11.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 26
Twelve months ago the financial meltdown began. Consequently any economic statistic that is quoted on a 12-month basis will look very favorable because 12 months ago it was a disaster. So while durable goods and new home sales data out later this morning will show the recession is continuing the changes relative to 12 months ago will give stock hawkers leeway for a lot of positive spin. Oil prices and equities have had a run-up. Labor Day weekend is the last big travel day of the American summer.
Asian markets were up in the range of -1.3% for Taiwan to +1.8% for Communist China last night.
European markets are currently down -0.2 to -1.1% awaiting direction from the American markets. Bank stocks are taking a hit and technology stocks look peaked out.
US market futures are moving lower at 8AM EST to about -0.2% before the opening today.
The financial, commodity, energy, and wireless sectors of the stock market are now highly overvalued. The real growth will soon be the sectors that create jobs. The funds flowing into the banks is being scaled back because it has created gross excesses and unearned bonuses from all the money Obama is now ashamed he threw at them. Obama plans to cut $250 billion in what had been set aside for future bank aid.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. That has faded. The teenagers who just love the colors and the fun secretly texting people have supported the recent wireless boom. That has been overblown. We believe those sectors had their run but now the $trillions are starting to be directed to the American green industries.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall and are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession. Pelosi recently called opponents of alien and indigent entitlements "anti American." But what really is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty and freedom of religion.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s threat to shun bankers who don’t restrain pay bonuses for their failures… was met with alarm by analysts and investors in the U.S., where Citigroup Inc. and six other bailed-out companies are being grilled by the government on how they compensate incompetent top-paid executives. Why don't they also look at the worm George Soros.
Tuesday’s projection by the CBO of the accumulated US fiscal deficit over the next 10 years has gone from the $4.4 trillion it projected in March to the new $7.1 trillion figure. It is a projection assuming the White House’s tax increases, health care rationing, and death advice for those with no hope are enacted. Some White House policies include questions to returning wounded soldiers to encourage physician-assisted suicide. Economists now say that the huge liabilities the U.S. is taking on to dig its way out of crisis could ultimately undermine faith in the dollar. Claire Dissaux, managing director of global economics and strategy for Millennium Global Investments Ltd. said, "The dollar's loss of influence is a steady and long-term trend."
Health care cost cutting will include end of life euthanasia counciling for seniors and wounded soldiers to eliminate the high cost of sustaining them. Government workers at the VA’s National Center for Ethics in Health Care have produced a 52-page end-of-life planning document, “Your Life, Your Choices.” Unfortunately, under President Obama, the VA is now using “Your Life, Your Choices.” The primary author of this workbook is Dr. Robert Pearlman who in 1996 advocated for physician-assisted suicide in Vacco v. Quill before the U.S. Supreme Court and is who known for his support of Obama's health-care rationing. Your Life, Your Choices” presents end-of-life choices in a way aimed at steering users toward predetermined conclusions. For example it lists various scenarios and asks users to then decide whether their own life would be “not worth living. The circumstances listed include ones common among the elderly and disabled: living in a nursing home, being in a wheelchair and not being able to “shake the blues.” There is a section which provocatively asks, “Have you ever heard anyone say, ‘If I’m a vegetable, pull the plug’?” There also are guilt-inducing scenarios such as “I can no longer contribute to my family’s well being,” “I am a severe financial burden on my family” and that the vet’s situation “causes severe emotional burden for my family.” Oregon has already implemented such policies to reduce state costs.
The Obama administration has little respect for the people who maintain USA national security. Obama also plans to cut veteran benefits and has started a new witch hunt in the CIA like what Clinton did that lead to first the bombing of the NY Trade Center and later the over 3000 American lives being lost on 9-11.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 26
Twelve months ago the financial meltdown began. Consequently any economic statistic that is quoted on a 12-month basis will look very favorable because 12 months ago it was a disaster. So while durable goods and new home sales data out later this morning will show the recession is continuing the changes relative to 12 months ago will give stock hawkers leeway for a lot of positive spin. Oil prices and equities have had a run-up. Labor Day weekend is the last big travel day of the American summer.
Asian markets were up in the range of -1.3% for Taiwan to +1.8% for Communist China last night.
European markets are currently down -0.2 to -1.1% awaiting direction from the American markets. Bank stocks are taking a hit and technology stocks look peaked out.
US market futures are moving lower at 8AM EST to about -0.2% before the opening today.
The financial, commodity, energy, and wireless sectors of the stock market are now highly overvalued. The real growth will soon be the sectors that create jobs. The funds flowing into the banks is being scaled back because it has created gross excesses and unearned bonuses from all the money Obama is now ashamed he threw at them. Obama plans to cut $250 billion in what had been set aside for future bank aid.
The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. That has faded. The teenagers who just love the colors and the fun secretly texting people have supported the recent wireless boom. That has been overblown. We believe those sectors had their run but now the $trillions are starting to be directed to the American green industries.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall and are out of favor and to take profits that exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Profits that high and fast are not sustainable in a recession. Pelosi recently called opponents of alien and indigent entitlements "anti American." But what really is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty and freedom of religion.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Apparently George Soros will profit handily from America's financial crisis. New sector leadership.
George Soros who has long funded organizations that hate and try to undermine America has been rewarded again. Soros is heavily invested in Argentina and the bank that was recently awarded a failed American bank. Soros getting some of the spoils of American ruination is but part of his payback for putting socialists and communists in power in the Obama administration. The cash for Clunkers program was the idea of Green Job Czar, Van Jones who is an avowed Communist. It was another $4500 per car taxpayer giveaway program needed to sell uneconomic socialist green ideas that ordinarily people would not buy into. It was also another way to defraud taxpayers and redistribute wealth to thieves who were hauling junk to dealerships. Only in the last few days did the accountability paperwork catch up with the program. You can bet ACORN, the "Indigents and Aliens for Socialism" group was mobilized to get a piece of that quick money too.
President Obama reportedly plans to nominate Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. The FDIC is preparing for another round of failures. Since Obama took office very little money has actually gone to liquidating the toxic waste generated by the socialists giving unqualified borrowers sub prime loans for any house they aspired to own. The socialists in Congress orchestrated this financial crisis and the Obama campaign classified it to be a Great Depression to frighten voters. The socialist strategy has been to blame free enterprise and American liberty for the banking excesses. But now more and more people see that the campaign contributions for the democrat-socialists came from Soros and the bankers that were profiting from the subprime subversion of the banking system and the American banking excesses. Just follow the money trail.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 25
Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman said money-market mutual funds undermine the strength of the U.S. financial system and should be regulated more like banks. Russian bonds fell the most in a week and China led declines in emerging-market stocks as oil prices dropped from a recent high and concern mounted about the strength of a recovery in the world’s biggest economies. Robert Reich, Bill Clinton's Secretary of Labor said that anyone who honestly thinks this recession will end this year is a fool. It is likely going to momentarily hit what looks like a bottom and then subside further.
HSBC Holdings Plc downgraded Southern Copper Corp. to “underweight” from “neutral” on valuation at, which said the “end of Chinese restocking could weaken copper prices.” May commodities including copper and oil were rising on the mistaken belief that China has sustainable growth. Unfortunately China is socialist/communist and honesty and business sense is not something that is important in such societies. In the USA, 50% of new companies go bankrupt within the first five years. Under communism business failure is no problem because government needs the jobs more than useful or affordable products. So the Chinese communist recently had a brainstorm. "Lets privatize our worthless failing enterprises so when they fail China can claim capitalism is what failed." But their workers saw through it and rioted. China is probably now going bust. Since it is more than five years and this is their first "bust" probably more than 50% of communist China's corporation stocks will soon become worthless.
Asian markets were down in the range of -0.6% to -2.6% last night with communist China down the -2.6%. Soon communist China will join Japan on the scrap heap of former contenders for the world's economic engine. Even with a lunatic left, socialist/communist/democrat coalition running the USA today… the USA is still the world engine and the American people are getting ready to throw the leftists out of office at the earliest opportunity.
European markets are currently flat -0.2 to 0.1% awaiting direction from the American markets.
US market futures are up about 0.1% before the opening today. That could fade fast during the day.
New sector leadership
The financial, commodity, energy, and wireless sectors of the stock market are now highly overvalued. The real growth will soon be the sectors that create jobs. The funds flowing into the banks is being scaled back because it has created gross excesses and unearned bonuses from all the money Obama is now ashamed he threw at them. That money will dry up. The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. But China has shot or disgraced every intellectual who supported free enterprise. The teenagers who just love the colors and the fun secretly texting people have supported the recent wireless boom. Soon they will be putting these technical toys in Cracker Jax and cereal boxes to boost sales to the teenyboppers. Therefore we believe those sectors had their run but now the $trillions are starting to be directed to the greening of American green industries.
The Wall Street Journal said yesterday that the former bullish analysts who successfully called the market's March bottom, are now taking a bearish view. The recent gains have passed fair-market value and could retreat in a hurry. Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis and the bottom, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall out of favor and to take profits that recently can exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Rates that high are not sustainable in a recession which the socialists and other anti-Americans could still make into a Great Depression. What is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty.
President Obama reportedly plans to nominate Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for a second term. The FDIC is preparing for another round of failures. Since Obama took office very little money has actually gone to liquidating the toxic waste generated by the socialists giving unqualified borrowers sub prime loans for any house they aspired to own. The socialists in Congress orchestrated this financial crisis and the Obama campaign classified it to be a Great Depression to frighten voters. The socialist strategy has been to blame free enterprise and American liberty for the banking excesses. But now more and more people see that the campaign contributions for the democrat-socialists came from Soros and the bankers that were profiting from the subprime subversion of the banking system and the American banking excesses. Just follow the money trail.
This blog could be removed within two weeks if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
Market forces August 25
Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman said money-market mutual funds undermine the strength of the U.S. financial system and should be regulated more like banks. Russian bonds fell the most in a week and China led declines in emerging-market stocks as oil prices dropped from a recent high and concern mounted about the strength of a recovery in the world’s biggest economies. Robert Reich, Bill Clinton's Secretary of Labor said that anyone who honestly thinks this recession will end this year is a fool. It is likely going to momentarily hit what looks like a bottom and then subside further.
HSBC Holdings Plc downgraded Southern Copper Corp. to “underweight” from “neutral” on valuation at, which said the “end of Chinese restocking could weaken copper prices.” May commodities including copper and oil were rising on the mistaken belief that China has sustainable growth. Unfortunately China is socialist/communist and honesty and business sense is not something that is important in such societies. In the USA, 50% of new companies go bankrupt within the first five years. Under communism business failure is no problem because government needs the jobs more than useful or affordable products. So the Chinese communist recently had a brainstorm. "Lets privatize our worthless failing enterprises so when they fail China can claim capitalism is what failed." But their workers saw through it and rioted. China is probably now going bust. Since it is more than five years and this is their first "bust" probably more than 50% of communist China's corporation stocks will soon become worthless.
Asian markets were down in the range of -0.6% to -2.6% last night with communist China down the -2.6%. Soon communist China will join Japan on the scrap heap of former contenders for the world's economic engine. Even with a lunatic left, socialist/communist/democrat coalition running the USA today… the USA is still the world engine and the American people are getting ready to throw the leftists out of office at the earliest opportunity.
European markets are currently flat -0.2 to 0.1% awaiting direction from the American markets.
US market futures are up about 0.1% before the opening today. That could fade fast during the day.
New sector leadership
The financial, commodity, energy, and wireless sectors of the stock market are now highly overvalued. The real growth will soon be the sectors that create jobs. The funds flowing into the banks is being scaled back because it has created gross excesses and unearned bonuses from all the money Obama is now ashamed he threw at them. That money will dry up. The speculation that caused the run-up in copper, oil, and energy was based on the hope that China's infrastructure buildup would sustain demand. But China has shot or disgraced every intellectual who supported free enterprise. The teenagers who just love the colors and the fun secretly texting people have supported the recent wireless boom. Soon they will be putting these technical toys in Cracker Jax and cereal boxes to boost sales to the teenyboppers. Therefore we believe those sectors had their run but now the $trillions are starting to be directed to the greening of American green industries.
The Wall Street Journal said yesterday that the former bullish analysts who successfully called the market's March bottom, are now taking a bearish view. The recent gains have passed fair-market value and could retreat in a hurry. Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis and the bottom, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall out of favor and to take profits that recently can exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Rates that high are not sustainable in a recession which the socialists and other anti-Americans could still make into a Great Depression. What is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Take profits and invest in sectors left behind
The FED stock market bubble will last until alternative investment gains popularity. After the 2000 housing became the new investment for younger people. About 14% of them are now trapped as are about 75% of stock market investors. Remember a 50% rise after a 50% stock market loss is still a 25% loss which is not far from the housing price decline.
This FED manipulative intervention is bankrupting the American economy with a projected $7 to$13 Trillion in debt and could bring about a Great Depression.
The Black Panthers who intimidated people going to polls at the last November elections were completely let off the hook by the Obama Justice Department. However the Justice Department has now recommended that the attorney general reopen and pursue nearly a dozen CIA terrorist prisoner abuse claims.
They now estimate 50 million, not 40 million indigent and illegal American will get entitlements to health care with the new plan but Obama says it will cost less and we will get faster service and seniors will not be encouraged to die. What a joke. The absurdity of the Obama health plan is hitting home. The Medicare program and Socials security programs run now by Obama are going broke and Obama claims the new 50 million entitlements for health care will save them from bankruptcy. The country needs a vacation from Obama.
Furthermore health care will no longer be insurance against catastrophic medical losses it will cover Aids and all other life style illnesses except smoking. All American medical records will be on computer and smoking related illnesses will not be covered. Late term abortions of course will still be covered but smoking is an Obama administration sin. Last week the congressional reluctance to take up Obama health care was derided by Obama who said congress was getting the, “Wee wees.”
This blog could be removed within fifteen days if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
or
idiotsforobama censoring August 2009
Market forces August 24
Asian markets were up in the range of 1% to 3% last night.
European markets are currently up 0.5 to 0.9% awaiting direction from the American markets.
US market futures are up about 0.3% before the opening today. That could fade fast during the day.
Last week the American markets trounced the communist Chinese markets and retook world market leadership. It is evident that the Asian markets are paper tigers now ready to collapse. In the USA 50% of new businesses go bankrupt within 5 years of incorporation. That is normal but China has not allowed that to happen. China’s losses and failures are being hidden. As Obama said, “The chickens will come home to roost”.
The Wall Street Journal said today that some bullish analysts, after having successfully called the market's March bottom, are now taking a bearish view. The recent gains have passed fair-market value and could retreat in a hurry. One money manager sees "seven lean years" of sluggish returns ahead after the seven years of overpriced stocks. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis and the bottom, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall out of favor and to take profits that recently can exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Rates that high are not sustainable in a recession which the socialists and other anti-Americans could still make into a Great Depression. What is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty.
This FED manipulative intervention is bankrupting the American economy with a projected $7 to$13 Trillion in debt and could bring about a Great Depression.
The Black Panthers who intimidated people going to polls at the last November elections were completely let off the hook by the Obama Justice Department. However the Justice Department has now recommended that the attorney general reopen and pursue nearly a dozen CIA terrorist prisoner abuse claims.
They now estimate 50 million, not 40 million indigent and illegal American will get entitlements to health care with the new plan but Obama says it will cost less and we will get faster service and seniors will not be encouraged to die. What a joke. The absurdity of the Obama health plan is hitting home. The Medicare program and Socials security programs run now by Obama are going broke and Obama claims the new 50 million entitlements for health care will save them from bankruptcy. The country needs a vacation from Obama.
Furthermore health care will no longer be insurance against catastrophic medical losses it will cover Aids and all other life style illnesses except smoking. All American medical records will be on computer and smoking related illnesses will not be covered. Late term abortions of course will still be covered but smoking is an Obama administration sin. Last week the congressional reluctance to take up Obama health care was derided by Obama who said congress was getting the, “Wee wees.”
This blog could be removed within fifteen days if it continues criticisms of socialist policies. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
or
idiotsforobama censoring August 2009
Market forces August 24
Asian markets were up in the range of 1% to 3% last night.
European markets are currently up 0.5 to 0.9% awaiting direction from the American markets.
US market futures are up about 0.3% before the opening today. That could fade fast during the day.
Last week the American markets trounced the communist Chinese markets and retook world market leadership. It is evident that the Asian markets are paper tigers now ready to collapse. In the USA 50% of new businesses go bankrupt within 5 years of incorporation. That is normal but China has not allowed that to happen. China’s losses and failures are being hidden. As Obama said, “The chickens will come home to roost”.
The Wall Street Journal said today that some bullish analysts, after having successfully called the market's March bottom, are now taking a bearish view. The recent gains have passed fair-market value and could retreat in a hurry. One money manager sees "seven lean years" of sluggish returns ahead after the seven years of overpriced stocks. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis and the bottom, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Our strategy now is to continue to invest in stocks in sectors typically after they fall out of favor and to take profits that recently can exceed 5% in a wk and 10% within a month. Rates that high are not sustainable in a recession which the socialists and other anti-Americans could still make into a Great Depression. What is an “anti-America?” An “anti-America” is someone opposed to free enterprise, competition, and the US Constitutional guarantees of liberty.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Take profits while you can, August 21
I am using this opportunity to take profits. Many stocks that were down 10% and great buys during the last two weeks are up 4% today. 14% gains in a few weeks are too good to pass up.
We are going to hear a lot of painted pig sales talks now because now even when nothing changes they say it is going up relative to last year. If something went down 10% at this time last year and this week this year it went nowhere (zero change)... they are reporting that the weekly indicator went up 10%. During the decline last year we pointed out they were making things look worse by comparing to the previous years gain. This time they are making things look better than they are. You just cannot believe anything GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Bernanki say. New home sales are awful but a 9% tax credit is making the foreclosures sell. That is very fine but not the golden ring. The month to month rise in home sales is the best in ten years but look where it is coming from. We had thr worst decline since WWII.
We are going to hear a lot of painted pig sales talks now because now even when nothing changes they say it is going up relative to last year. If something went down 10% at this time last year and this week this year it went nowhere (zero change)... they are reporting that the weekly indicator went up 10%. During the decline last year we pointed out they were making things look worse by comparing to the previous years gain. This time they are making things look better than they are. You just cannot believe anything GE/MSNBC/Pravda and Bernanki say. New home sales are awful but a 9% tax credit is making the foreclosures sell. That is very fine but not the golden ring. The month to month rise in home sales is the best in ten years but look where it is coming from. We had thr worst decline since WWII.
The next week is another critical market juncture
It is apparent now that the USA FED is manipulating the market now with aggressive liquidity and pressure on financial institutions to put it to work. That was done by Greenspan to calm the 1986 25% market panis. Prior to 1999 that liquidity would have gone into the economy but now financial institutions can put the money into the stock market because. The Glass-Segal act, passed in the 1930s, had mandated the separation of lending and investment banking but was repealed in 1999. If it were an old fashioned bubble we would see an enormous cash flow accompanying the bubble. But what we are seeing instead in the USA for the first time is the very controlled price movements that occur when countries regulate their markets.
In the next day or two we could see what will appear to be either another rally forming due to manipulation... or a correction to this bubble beginning. If it is a rally it is highly probable that it will trigger many buy signals. But where will the money for a rally come from when the hedge funds always stay fully invested? If the rally is once again a FED type manipulation on low volume we could soon see people begin to exit the increasingly dangerous stock market en masse for better investments such as real estate. If a rally begins today it will take another week to know whether or not it was a bull trap. Sometimes bears are also panicked and fall into a bull trap.
This FED manipulative intervention is bankrupting the American economy with a projected $13 Trillion in debt and could bring about a Great Depression more like Germany had when they were bankrupted with being forced to pay the cost of World War One. Germany then had hyperinflation followed by economic collapse and finally the rise of National Socialism. Socialism needs victims to grow. Liberty and free enterprise is the only American path of growth without tyranny.
Market forces August 21
This blog has been told it is suspected to be spam which contains random words with links to spam others. That of course is complete nonsense and a ploy to shut down those who resist the headlong march of this administration into a planned and regulated socialist economy.
This blog could be removed within twenty days if it continues criticisms of socialism. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the Obama government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
or
idiotsforobama censoring August 2009
In the next day or two we could see what will appear to be either another rally forming due to manipulation... or a correction to this bubble beginning. If it is a rally it is highly probable that it will trigger many buy signals. But where will the money for a rally come from when the hedge funds always stay fully invested? If the rally is once again a FED type manipulation on low volume we could soon see people begin to exit the increasingly dangerous stock market en masse for better investments such as real estate. If a rally begins today it will take another week to know whether or not it was a bull trap. Sometimes bears are also panicked and fall into a bull trap.
This FED manipulative intervention is bankrupting the American economy with a projected $13 Trillion in debt and could bring about a Great Depression more like Germany had when they were bankrupted with being forced to pay the cost of World War One. Germany then had hyperinflation followed by economic collapse and finally the rise of National Socialism. Socialism needs victims to grow. Liberty and free enterprise is the only American path of growth without tyranny.
Market forces August 21
This blog has been told it is suspected to be spam which contains random words with links to spam others. That of course is complete nonsense and a ploy to shut down those who resist the headlong march of this administration into a planned and regulated socialist economy.
This blog could be removed within twenty days if it continues criticisms of socialism. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the Obama government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us for anti socialism. For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice America August 2009
or
idiotsforobama censoring August 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Amazing! China is now down 14% in just the last six weeks.
Amazing! China is now down 14% in just the last six weeks.
Last night the world ignored the advance in USA markets. China fell another 4.3% after a small rise during the first half of the session. Within hours all of Asia followed China downward.
We were the first eight months ago to recommend buying emerging market stocks at their lows and we were the first weeks ago to reverse that and warn to get out of the emerging markets when it was near the highs. Jim Cramer followed us months later recommending them but he still has not warned about the emerging markets. The problem with emerging markets is that they were confused by their past growth and their pot of cash and did not realize their world was collapsing around them. And MSNBC/Pravda thinks this current correction of 2% is over? Even Europe is ignoring the USA today and is following China.
Market forces August 19
If you follow the price action over the past month you see it now resembles the manipulated Japanese markets of the late 1980's. The Japanese by exercising control could beat down any speculator who went against the stable trend they established. That resulted in their markets becoming abnormally stable and hence the drop in volatility and the drop in market volume.
We have seen the same now in the USA for the last rally. Volatility and volume have declined and the market price fixers took the USA markets up 50% and the Asian markets up 80% in less than five months. By carefully controlling liquidity behind the scenes Alan Greenspan silenced the 1987 USA October panic in a matter of days. In Japan they have for more than thirty years controlled Yen exchange rates and not one dares to challenge them, not even the USA when we know they were doing to the USA what China now does to the USA. China now follows Japan and fixes the exchange rate to make American products more expensive in China so that they can manipulate a better balance of trade.
Yesterday the US markets rose and the market volume (the shares traded) dropped another 14% from the previous day when the market had declined 2%. Our respiral analysis that uses the MACD and the parabolic SAS say the window of opportunity for buying is shut.
Warren Buffett said `Gusher' of U.S. federal debt poses risks to economy, and dollar. The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system and now pose threats to the world’s largest economy and its currency.
Market Outlook
This blog has been told it will be removed within twenty days if it continues criticisms of marxist-socialism and does not request a review by the censors. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the US government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us as anti socialist.
For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice america
or
idiotsforobama
The Chinese people are beginning to rebel against communist policies aimed at privatizing failing industries so that the suffering people will not attribute it to failed socialist policies but instead attribute it to free enterprise.
In the USA people are beginning to rise up as well against socialist lies claiming a failure of American liberty and free enterprise. It is becoming evident that socialist campaign lied about the coming of another great depression last year to create the market panic that they achieved. Then the socialists used the opportunity to squander America's wealth by redistributing it to themselves and ACORN, unions and their other allies. They nationalize GM and destroyed Chrysler with socialism while blaming it on capitalism. Now the recent market rebound has been orchestrated to make it appear as though socialism works. But Americans are not stupid.
Americans now see that the socialists want to change the US Supreme Court so that it does not give blind justice anymore but is instead sensitive to culture. Not all cultures have a strong work ethic. Americans now know that Obama is on record as saying our forefathers were wrong and our American Constitution needs some changes to facilitate the redistribution of wealth and the disarming of citizens.
Americans initially attributed the rising stock market to the widespread relief that Obama's socialism was failing. The opposite now seems to be true. The American resistance to the socialist railroading through of Obama's Cap N Trade and socialized medicine has necessitated the socialist manipulation of the American stock market to try to quiet the opposition. Now Obama is doing what the Japanese and the communists have always done. But the manipulation of markets as socialists and communists do is built on lies and always ultimately fails. By 1990 the Japanese manipulated themselves into a hole so deep they are only just now emerging again 19 years later. The Chinese manipulation of exchange rates and their markets will ultimately lead to a collapse of their attempt at free enterprise. And likewise the Obama-FED-Treasury manipulation will only lead to a real Great Depression if it continues. Free enterprise had many panics and recessions but it took the rise of worldwide socialism and FDR after World War 1 to cause a Great Depression. Until this recent venture of China into free enterprise there has never been a communist state that did not exist in a continuous Great Depression. And it is a lie to claim that western socialism in Europe has ever been successful. Once the American engine of free enterprise is silenced by Obama socialism Europe will slip back into the dictatorships that characterize all true forms of socialism. Every socialist leader wants to be the dictator for life and systematically eliminates his competition. As long as America bailed out the Western European socialists, all was well and they could live in luxury and mock Americans. Those will all go down the drain when the socialist democrat machinery silences the American engine of liberty and free enterprise.
Last night Asian markets fell: Communist China down -4.3%, socialist Japan down -0.8%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -1.7%, Jakarta is down -2.5% and India down -1.5%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are down in a range of -0.6% to -0.8%
US futures are down 0.8% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning.
Myron Scholes joined Robert Merton, with whom he shared the 1997 Nobel prize for economics, in calling for banks to give investors a clearer picture of their worth by providing fair-value data on their illiquid assets. That would be similar to mark to market values and would show that many banks are insolvent. The financial sector is now on the brink of another collapse,
We must be continually capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly in and out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. Beware of the financial stocks at this time.
Time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. So far this year Jim Cramer is rotated his advice three times from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks. In other times he would have held tight for a year or more. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
Last night the world ignored the advance in USA markets. China fell another 4.3% after a small rise during the first half of the session. Within hours all of Asia followed China downward.
We were the first eight months ago to recommend buying emerging market stocks at their lows and we were the first weeks ago to reverse that and warn to get out of the emerging markets when it was near the highs. Jim Cramer followed us months later recommending them but he still has not warned about the emerging markets. The problem with emerging markets is that they were confused by their past growth and their pot of cash and did not realize their world was collapsing around them. And MSNBC/Pravda thinks this current correction of 2% is over? Even Europe is ignoring the USA today and is following China.
Market forces August 19
If you follow the price action over the past month you see it now resembles the manipulated Japanese markets of the late 1980's. The Japanese by exercising control could beat down any speculator who went against the stable trend they established. That resulted in their markets becoming abnormally stable and hence the drop in volatility and the drop in market volume.
We have seen the same now in the USA for the last rally. Volatility and volume have declined and the market price fixers took the USA markets up 50% and the Asian markets up 80% in less than five months. By carefully controlling liquidity behind the scenes Alan Greenspan silenced the 1987 USA October panic in a matter of days. In Japan they have for more than thirty years controlled Yen exchange rates and not one dares to challenge them, not even the USA when we know they were doing to the USA what China now does to the USA. China now follows Japan and fixes the exchange rate to make American products more expensive in China so that they can manipulate a better balance of trade.
Yesterday the US markets rose and the market volume (the shares traded) dropped another 14% from the previous day when the market had declined 2%. Our respiral analysis that uses the MACD and the parabolic SAS say the window of opportunity for buying is shut.
Warren Buffett said `Gusher' of U.S. federal debt poses risks to economy, and dollar. The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system and now pose threats to the world’s largest economy and its currency.
Market Outlook
This blog has been told it will be removed within twenty days if it continues criticisms of marxist-socialism and does not request a review by the censors. Suppression of the freedom of speech is something new to America and now you can report blogs like this and the US government will "encourage" the blog masters to shut it down. Yes, there is now an official White House blog in which the Obama administration asks supporters to report back sites like this. And apparently someone reported us as anti socialist.
For more information use either of these terms in your search.
Foreignpolicy censoring voice america
or
idiotsforobama
The Chinese people are beginning to rebel against communist policies aimed at privatizing failing industries so that the suffering people will not attribute it to failed socialist policies but instead attribute it to free enterprise.
In the USA people are beginning to rise up as well against socialist lies claiming a failure of American liberty and free enterprise. It is becoming evident that socialist campaign lied about the coming of another great depression last year to create the market panic that they achieved. Then the socialists used the opportunity to squander America's wealth by redistributing it to themselves and ACORN, unions and their other allies. They nationalize GM and destroyed Chrysler with socialism while blaming it on capitalism. Now the recent market rebound has been orchestrated to make it appear as though socialism works. But Americans are not stupid.
Americans now see that the socialists want to change the US Supreme Court so that it does not give blind justice anymore but is instead sensitive to culture. Not all cultures have a strong work ethic. Americans now know that Obama is on record as saying our forefathers were wrong and our American Constitution needs some changes to facilitate the redistribution of wealth and the disarming of citizens.
Americans initially attributed the rising stock market to the widespread relief that Obama's socialism was failing. The opposite now seems to be true. The American resistance to the socialist railroading through of Obama's Cap N Trade and socialized medicine has necessitated the socialist manipulation of the American stock market to try to quiet the opposition. Now Obama is doing what the Japanese and the communists have always done. But the manipulation of markets as socialists and communists do is built on lies and always ultimately fails. By 1990 the Japanese manipulated themselves into a hole so deep they are only just now emerging again 19 years later. The Chinese manipulation of exchange rates and their markets will ultimately lead to a collapse of their attempt at free enterprise. And likewise the Obama-FED-Treasury manipulation will only lead to a real Great Depression if it continues. Free enterprise had many panics and recessions but it took the rise of worldwide socialism and FDR after World War 1 to cause a Great Depression. Until this recent venture of China into free enterprise there has never been a communist state that did not exist in a continuous Great Depression. And it is a lie to claim that western socialism in Europe has ever been successful. Once the American engine of free enterprise is silenced by Obama socialism Europe will slip back into the dictatorships that characterize all true forms of socialism. Every socialist leader wants to be the dictator for life and systematically eliminates his competition. As long as America bailed out the Western European socialists, all was well and they could live in luxury and mock Americans. Those will all go down the drain when the socialist democrat machinery silences the American engine of liberty and free enterprise.
Last night Asian markets fell: Communist China down -4.3%, socialist Japan down -0.8%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -1.7%, Jakarta is down -2.5% and India down -1.5%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are down in a range of -0.6% to -0.8%
US futures are down 0.8% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning.
Myron Scholes joined Robert Merton, with whom he shared the 1997 Nobel prize for economics, in calling for banks to give investors a clearer picture of their worth by providing fair-value data on their illiquid assets. That would be similar to mark to market values and would show that many banks are insolvent. The financial sector is now on the brink of another collapse,
We must be continually capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly in and out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. Beware of the financial stocks at this time.
Time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. So far this year Jim Cramer is rotated his advice three times from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks. In other times he would have held tight for a year or more. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The consumer may be an economic drag for a few more years
Consumer confidence remains low. Home appreciation used to be a major source of borrowing through equity loans. When inflation matured it ultimately helped the debtors but today we have deflation first that first increases the percentage of debt putting consumers underwater.
When inflation starts again it will hurt debtors much more than they hurt today because before it raises home values it will first increase interest rates. Variable rates will double when inflation doubles. And it does not take much inflation to double interest rates from 2% to 4% or to quadruple them from 2% to 8%. The economy will need a different engine to recover for a while. In fact as the recovery increases many consumers will see relentless increases in the variable rate mortgage payments. If inflation jumps from 2% to 4% the variable rate debtor will see the relative value of his debt drop 4% due to the 4% inflation but he will still be under water and the variable rate payment paid on the mortgage will close to double. That is when the variable rate debtor will really feel the pain.
Market forces August 18
The media resumed its positive stance today. Yesterday most advisors were negative but today we once again have the Pollyanna spin headlines such as, “Home Depot's Second-Quarter Profit Falls Less Than Estimated; Sales Drop Home Depot Inc., the largest home- improvement retailer, reported second-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated.”
Jim Cramer said it was the duty of the media to use low estimates before the earnings announcement so the estimates are exceeded and then it is the duty of the corporations to give glowing projections for the rest of the year. Any company that always makes honest projections goes on Jim Cramer’s wall of shame. Every time Wall Street or Barron’s tells it like it is, the Jim Cramer MSNBC/Pravda spin doctors take the honest press to task. The spin now is not dangerous but Jim Cramer consistently gets people buying when the stock prices are about to collapse.
Home Depot had miserable results to report just as Lowes did before them. But HD gave an encouraging projection today for the rest of the year so Jim Cramer’s dishonesty paid off again as stock futures rose today.
The stock market is beginning to behave like the socialists declaration that Obama saved us from a great depression was a big farce intended to railroad through socialist legislation. The more people protest now against Obama and the more his presidency fails, the higher the stock market seems to go. So if socialized medicine fails we may not have the expected summer decline. And if cap-n-trade wealth redistribution fails next, this could be a very good year for investors.
Market Outlook
Last night Asian markets were mixed: Communist China up 1.4%, socialist Japan up 0.3%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 0.8%, Jakarta is down -2.1% and Taiwan is also down -2.1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 0.5% to 0.8%
US futures are up 0.6% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning.
Any panic spike down now is now a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. So far this year Jim Cramer is rotated his advice three times from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks. In other times he would have held tight for a year or more. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
When inflation starts again it will hurt debtors much more than they hurt today because before it raises home values it will first increase interest rates. Variable rates will double when inflation doubles. And it does not take much inflation to double interest rates from 2% to 4% or to quadruple them from 2% to 8%. The economy will need a different engine to recover for a while. In fact as the recovery increases many consumers will see relentless increases in the variable rate mortgage payments. If inflation jumps from 2% to 4% the variable rate debtor will see the relative value of his debt drop 4% due to the 4% inflation but he will still be under water and the variable rate payment paid on the mortgage will close to double. That is when the variable rate debtor will really feel the pain.
Market forces August 18
The media resumed its positive stance today. Yesterday most advisors were negative but today we once again have the Pollyanna spin headlines such as, “Home Depot's Second-Quarter Profit Falls Less Than Estimated; Sales Drop Home Depot Inc., the largest home- improvement retailer, reported second-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated.”
Jim Cramer said it was the duty of the media to use low estimates before the earnings announcement so the estimates are exceeded and then it is the duty of the corporations to give glowing projections for the rest of the year. Any company that always makes honest projections goes on Jim Cramer’s wall of shame. Every time Wall Street or Barron’s tells it like it is, the Jim Cramer MSNBC/Pravda spin doctors take the honest press to task. The spin now is not dangerous but Jim Cramer consistently gets people buying when the stock prices are about to collapse.
Home Depot had miserable results to report just as Lowes did before them. But HD gave an encouraging projection today for the rest of the year so Jim Cramer’s dishonesty paid off again as stock futures rose today.
The stock market is beginning to behave like the socialists declaration that Obama saved us from a great depression was a big farce intended to railroad through socialist legislation. The more people protest now against Obama and the more his presidency fails, the higher the stock market seems to go. So if socialized medicine fails we may not have the expected summer decline. And if cap-n-trade wealth redistribution fails next, this could be a very good year for investors.
Market Outlook
Last night Asian markets were mixed: Communist China up 1.4%, socialist Japan up 0.3%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 0.8%, Jakarta is down -2.1% and Taiwan is also down -2.1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 0.5% to 0.8%
US futures are up 0.6% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning.
Any panic spike down now is now a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. So far this year Jim Cramer is rotated his advice three times from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks. In other times he would have held tight for a year or more. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Many banks are now close to the point of no return
Consumer confidence declined due to job concerns. Banks are close to the point of no return as toxic loans exceed 5% of many bank's holdings.
Stocks in U.S. fell as and a consumer Confidence Drop Adds to evidence the recent Rally is unsustainable.
David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist said U.S. stocks are “dramatically overpriced” because the fallout from the financial crisis continues to hurt consumer spending. The Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year. He predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually slump to 400. Tice told Bloomberg TV, “After a big decline like we had, it’s not unexpected to have a big rally.”
Tice said he’s the most confident ever that the stocks will fall beneath their March low and a drop to 400, a 61 percent plunge from yesterday’s close, is likely within a year. Tice said that predictions for an economic recovery led by a rebound in consumer spending are unrealistic because falling real estate prices have destroyed wealth, “The consumer has had a diminution of net worth like we’ve never seen,” he said. “That’s going to impair spending.”
Missed payments by consumers, builders and small businesses so far have pushed 72 lenders into failure this year, the most since 1992. Problem banks stood at 305 in the first quarter. Even excluding the stress-test list, at the end of the first quarter banks with nonperformers above 5 percent had combined deposits of $193 billion, according to Bloomberg data. That is more than 14 times the size of the FDIC’s deposits insurance fund that is supposed to bail out depositors. The FDIC will probably impose an emergency fee on the more than 8,200 banks it insures in the fourth quarter to replenish the insurance fund, the second special assessment this year, Chairman Sheila Bair said last week.
Bloomberg said, More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival. The number of banks exceeding the threshold more than doubled in the year as real estate and credit-card defaults surged. Almost 300 reported 3 percent or more of their loans were nonperforming, a term for commercial and consumer debt that has stopped collecting interest or will no longer be paid in full.
The biggest banks with nonperforming loans of at least 5 percent include Wisconsin’s Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Georgia’s Synovus Financial Corp., according to Bloomberg data. Among those exceeding 10 percent, the biggest in the 50 U.S. states was Michigan’s Flagstar Bancorp. All said in second- quarter filings they’re considered financially sound.
“These numbers are off the charts,” said Blake Howells, an analyst at Becker Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. Banks are losing the “ability to try and earn their way through the cycle.”
Market forces August 17
President Obama has stated that we must be more like the European socialists and he now completely controls the American political machinery. It is going to get a lot worse if Obama succeeds with his legislation. Word at this hour is that socialist democrats are re-thinking these health-care forums. Some want to junk discussing health care and ram it through.
Democrat Dick Durbin all but said they're a waste of time and he'd rather not get sucker-punched for defending the bill. Socialist-democrats would rather arrogantly scrap the democratic forums than the un-democratic health-care proposals they're pushing.
Market Outlook
A panic sell off of 25% in one day similar to 1987 is now a growing risk.
Chinese stocks today plunged to their lowest level in two months, on renewed concerns over the economic outlook, government policy, and the lack of transparency into their communist system that pirates technology, lacks truthfulness, and produces much of the worlds junk and unsafe products.
After running share prices up by more than 90 percent this year by early August, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 176.24 points, or 5.8 percent, to close at 2,870, the lowest since June 18 - while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index sank 6.6 percent to 955. Property shares were among the biggest losers, with China Vanke falling by 9.95 percent and Poly Real Estate slipping 7.4 percent.
Analysts say investors are concerned about a liquidity crisis. But the decline also reflected the broader economic outlook that American consumer confidence is weakening which could mean less demand for Chinese exports. Today's losses even extended the declines that took the Shanghai benchmark 6.6 percent lower last week.
The long rally in share prices had begun to raise worries that loose credit was fueling an unsustainable bubble in a market long prone to gyrations.
We definitely see bubble psychology everywhere again. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct (more than 10%) and offer real buying opportunities. The market is in an extremely overbought and exhausted position again. If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down: Communist China down -7.8%, socialist Japan down -3.1%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -3.6%, and socialist India down -4.1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are down in a range of -1.7% to -2.4%
US futures are down 2% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
Stocks in U.S. fell as and a consumer Confidence Drop Adds to evidence the recent Rally is unsustainable.
David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist said U.S. stocks are “dramatically overpriced” because the fallout from the financial crisis continues to hurt consumer spending. The Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year. He predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually slump to 400. Tice told Bloomberg TV, “After a big decline like we had, it’s not unexpected to have a big rally.”
Tice said he’s the most confident ever that the stocks will fall beneath their March low and a drop to 400, a 61 percent plunge from yesterday’s close, is likely within a year. Tice said that predictions for an economic recovery led by a rebound in consumer spending are unrealistic because falling real estate prices have destroyed wealth, “The consumer has had a diminution of net worth like we’ve never seen,” he said. “That’s going to impair spending.”
Missed payments by consumers, builders and small businesses so far have pushed 72 lenders into failure this year, the most since 1992. Problem banks stood at 305 in the first quarter. Even excluding the stress-test list, at the end of the first quarter banks with nonperformers above 5 percent had combined deposits of $193 billion, according to Bloomberg data. That is more than 14 times the size of the FDIC’s deposits insurance fund that is supposed to bail out depositors. The FDIC will probably impose an emergency fee on the more than 8,200 banks it insures in the fourth quarter to replenish the insurance fund, the second special assessment this year, Chairman Sheila Bair said last week.
Bloomberg said, More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival. The number of banks exceeding the threshold more than doubled in the year as real estate and credit-card defaults surged. Almost 300 reported 3 percent or more of their loans were nonperforming, a term for commercial and consumer debt that has stopped collecting interest or will no longer be paid in full.
The biggest banks with nonperforming loans of at least 5 percent include Wisconsin’s Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Georgia’s Synovus Financial Corp., according to Bloomberg data. Among those exceeding 10 percent, the biggest in the 50 U.S. states was Michigan’s Flagstar Bancorp. All said in second- quarter filings they’re considered financially sound.
“These numbers are off the charts,” said Blake Howells, an analyst at Becker Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. Banks are losing the “ability to try and earn their way through the cycle.”
Market forces August 17
President Obama has stated that we must be more like the European socialists and he now completely controls the American political machinery. It is going to get a lot worse if Obama succeeds with his legislation. Word at this hour is that socialist democrats are re-thinking these health-care forums. Some want to junk discussing health care and ram it through.
Democrat Dick Durbin all but said they're a waste of time and he'd rather not get sucker-punched for defending the bill. Socialist-democrats would rather arrogantly scrap the democratic forums than the un-democratic health-care proposals they're pushing.
Market Outlook
A panic sell off of 25% in one day similar to 1987 is now a growing risk.
Chinese stocks today plunged to their lowest level in two months, on renewed concerns over the economic outlook, government policy, and the lack of transparency into their communist system that pirates technology, lacks truthfulness, and produces much of the worlds junk and unsafe products.
After running share prices up by more than 90 percent this year by early August, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 176.24 points, or 5.8 percent, to close at 2,870, the lowest since June 18 - while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index sank 6.6 percent to 955. Property shares were among the biggest losers, with China Vanke falling by 9.95 percent and Poly Real Estate slipping 7.4 percent.
Analysts say investors are concerned about a liquidity crisis. But the decline also reflected the broader economic outlook that American consumer confidence is weakening which could mean less demand for Chinese exports. Today's losses even extended the declines that took the Shanghai benchmark 6.6 percent lower last week.
The long rally in share prices had begun to raise worries that loose credit was fueling an unsustainable bubble in a market long prone to gyrations.
We definitely see bubble psychology everywhere again. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct (more than 10%) and offer real buying opportunities. The market is in an extremely overbought and exhausted position again. If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down: Communist China down -7.8%, socialist Japan down -3.1%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -3.6%, and socialist India down -4.1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are down in a range of -1.7% to -2.4%
US futures are down 2% now at 7:30 EST before the market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
Friday, August 14, 2009
American technological creativity is now being crushed by Obama
Market churning is what they do at market tops
At market bottoms they scare you into selling. At market tops they tell you that it is a good time to buy even at the peaks after a run-up of 48% in three months. They churn investors at the top.
No one needs to be told how the con men can twist facts and words to sell someone a lemon or a clunker. We know the same people who said buy-buy-buy all through 2007 and 2008 are out there right now saying buy-buy-buy. That is the only thing they know because they generally invest very poorly themselves and depend on the rest of us for their commissions or their TV entertainment income. They are terrible investors themselves or they would not be working for our commissions or entertaining us. And so they have a clear conflict of interest. They must sell you a bag of goods in order to make a living. And so they also spin everything positive when things are going up and then they scare the pants off of us when things are going down. That is known as churning and that is what it has been called since the panics of the 1800's. Right now they are selling us stocks that in their business they call pigs with lipstick.
Churning refers to moving stocks when there is nothing financially going on that justifies investment activity. Churning is how many get commissions while actually providing a disservice to investors. That is what they have been doing for months now.
Well, folks we have other alternatives. There are bond funds that are doing much better than the bank and there are RE partnerships and direct real estate investment opportunities galore out there right now. Real estate is now down about 30% nationally not 16%. It is down 16% just in the last year not since the real estate market peaked in 2006.
Our record is on the web going back more than four years. You can search for it on the web under "Suite 101" plus "BoltonCT" or also plus "respiral". Our record is pretty good and right now it probably is clear that we have another stock market bubble. Volume is so low that a small amount of buying has driven stock prices up 80% in some sectors since this past March. That happened in the Great Depression too. And then stocks hit an even lower bottom. Get smart and get out with profits while we can.
American technological creativity is now being crushed by Obama's socialist legislation
Creating a depression is no small effort. The USA has had dozens of stock market panics and recessions but just one depression. FDR started out thinking European socialism was great and he took a bad recession and made it into an economic depression just like they had in the other European socialist nations. We now have left wing socialists at the helm of most of the world economies. They live in a make-believe fantasy world.
1) They want to redistribute wealth from the creative, smart, and productive populations to the laid back, ignorant, and corrupt con artist sub cultures. Haven't you gotten dozens of scam emails like the rest of us?
2) They want to use cap and trade to redistribute wealth using the hoax that productive populations are causing a global meltdown when this glacial cycle has happened more than ten times on earth before mankind even evolved.
3) They want to have your personal health and financial records computerized so that the corrupt politicians can have access to it to make sure you follow the rules and give to them and do what they demand.
4) They are willing to destroy the best health care system on planet Earth so that 40million people who already get free health care in America will get it as an entitlement. They will then be entitled to bog down the system because it will be their right, not a gift from the producers and workers of America.
5) Our medical and other research programs are the envy of the world but they intend to shut it down to pay for their redistribution of wealth. They are so stupid that they say that the research only benefits the rich.
6) They plan to put the whole burden on Americans who do the work that has made America the richest nation on the planet. Essentially they want to control and effectively enslave the productive people as the failed Soviet Empire did until the people realized that it was a lunatic make-believe existence where the workers pretended to work, the government pretended to pay them, and the dissidents were sent to the Gulag prison system to be beaten and freeze to death. When the Soviets conquered East Germany they dismantled the factories and rolled fragile sophisticated German machinery into boxcars literally rendering the equipment useless to East Germany and the Soviet Union. America did the opposite and made friends of our enemies. When the iron curtain came down we discovered they had acquired our sophisticate jet engines and could not even copy our technology because they lacked knowledge. We discovered that the jet engines of the Foxbat only lasted the length of the flight when they set records. American military engines that set records lasted 10,000 hrs and our commercial engines last 30,000 hrs.
Bush inherited a recession and a terrorist attack after Clinton who exposed us to attack by substantially dismantling the CIA, FBI, and our military. Bush gave us tax cuts, strengthened the economy and kept us out of a depression. He left Obama a recession and Obama called it a depression to make Bush look bad, to undermine confidence in the banks and to get himself elected. No previous political campaign since the great depression ever endangered America's economic health that way.
President Obama thinks European socialism is the answer and he took a bad recession and is now making it into an economic depression by dismantling the American economic engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. Yes, American creativity is so rapid that before socialist nations can copy what we do we have destroyed yesterday's technology by making it obsolete. That is how we survived Japanese copycats, China's piracy and theft of software etc. Yes American technological creativity is now being crushed by Obama socialist legislation.
Market forces August 14
The Wall Street euphoria had been based on their assumption that the socialist destruction of the worlds best medical system will fail. But the socialists are actually dismantling the American engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. Hover gave RDR a recession and socialism made it into a depression until WWII forced FDR to restore the American engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. President Obama has stated that we must be more like the European socialists and he now completely controls the political machinery.
It is going to get a lot worse when Obama succeeds with his legislation. Those pump and dump stock market "let the good times roll" spinners are setting investors up for another market blood bath because they are not even as smart as the Obama socialists.
Market Outlook
A panic sell off of 25% in one day similar to 1987 is now a growing risk.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing to the sectors of the American population that have the least skill at managing money. It is a bailout of all the folks who defraud credit companies and banks. It is a bail out of all the folks that Senators Rangle and Dodd said should be given houses "no questions asked about affordability." We are seeing many on Wall Street getting multi million dollar bonuses for their part in the corruption of mortgage investment instruments. We are seeing federal tax cheats appointed to oversee the US finances. We see no attempt to monitor the $Trillions being thrown into the black hole of redistribution. They are still allowing mortgages "no questions asked."
If it were not for the incompetence of all the many socialist and communist governments of the world the incompetent American government would be under water today. The socialist world is like a high school where all the lazy, cheaters, and mediocre majority get together and hassle the good students to study less. That way they get the grades lowered and achieve greater equality. That makes the good teacher looks too strict and the lazy get to look like average students. They thus eliminate the inequality of grades caused by good students and achieve the equality of mediocrity. Obama is moving America from the inequality of affluence toward the equality of world poverty. The USA has a long way to fall because the USA used to be the world's best student.
Yesterday had continuing indications of the market topping out. Volume declined another 5% and the high for the day was no higher than the high the previous day. The spiral or parabolic SAR indicated the time to sell on August 11 and the MACD dropped to zero for the last two days. Once both go negative the buying window will be shut based on the methodology "respiral" we have documented since early 2007.
We definitely see bubble psychology everywhere again. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct (more than 10%) and offer real buying opportunities. The recent rally has the market in an extremely overbought and exhausted position again. If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down from the previous day: Communist China down -3%, socialist Japan up 0.7%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 0.2%, theocracy Jakarta down -0.4%, and socialist India down -0.7%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 0.2% to 0.6% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
US stocks are up 47% and emerging markets are up 80% in just five months so be careful.
At market bottoms they scare you into selling. At market tops they tell you that it is a good time to buy even at the peaks after a run-up of 48% in three months. They churn investors at the top.
No one needs to be told how the con men can twist facts and words to sell someone a lemon or a clunker. We know the same people who said buy-buy-buy all through 2007 and 2008 are out there right now saying buy-buy-buy. That is the only thing they know because they generally invest very poorly themselves and depend on the rest of us for their commissions or their TV entertainment income. They are terrible investors themselves or they would not be working for our commissions or entertaining us. And so they have a clear conflict of interest. They must sell you a bag of goods in order to make a living. And so they also spin everything positive when things are going up and then they scare the pants off of us when things are going down. That is known as churning and that is what it has been called since the panics of the 1800's. Right now they are selling us stocks that in their business they call pigs with lipstick.
Churning refers to moving stocks when there is nothing financially going on that justifies investment activity. Churning is how many get commissions while actually providing a disservice to investors. That is what they have been doing for months now.
Well, folks we have other alternatives. There are bond funds that are doing much better than the bank and there are RE partnerships and direct real estate investment opportunities galore out there right now. Real estate is now down about 30% nationally not 16%. It is down 16% just in the last year not since the real estate market peaked in 2006.
Our record is on the web going back more than four years. You can search for it on the web under "Suite 101" plus "BoltonCT" or also plus "respiral". Our record is pretty good and right now it probably is clear that we have another stock market bubble. Volume is so low that a small amount of buying has driven stock prices up 80% in some sectors since this past March. That happened in the Great Depression too. And then stocks hit an even lower bottom. Get smart and get out with profits while we can.
American technological creativity is now being crushed by Obama's socialist legislation
Creating a depression is no small effort. The USA has had dozens of stock market panics and recessions but just one depression. FDR started out thinking European socialism was great and he took a bad recession and made it into an economic depression just like they had in the other European socialist nations. We now have left wing socialists at the helm of most of the world economies. They live in a make-believe fantasy world.
1) They want to redistribute wealth from the creative, smart, and productive populations to the laid back, ignorant, and corrupt con artist sub cultures. Haven't you gotten dozens of scam emails like the rest of us?
2) They want to use cap and trade to redistribute wealth using the hoax that productive populations are causing a global meltdown when this glacial cycle has happened more than ten times on earth before mankind even evolved.
3) They want to have your personal health and financial records computerized so that the corrupt politicians can have access to it to make sure you follow the rules and give to them and do what they demand.
4) They are willing to destroy the best health care system on planet Earth so that 40million people who already get free health care in America will get it as an entitlement. They will then be entitled to bog down the system because it will be their right, not a gift from the producers and workers of America.
5) Our medical and other research programs are the envy of the world but they intend to shut it down to pay for their redistribution of wealth. They are so stupid that they say that the research only benefits the rich.
6) They plan to put the whole burden on Americans who do the work that has made America the richest nation on the planet. Essentially they want to control and effectively enslave the productive people as the failed Soviet Empire did until the people realized that it was a lunatic make-believe existence where the workers pretended to work, the government pretended to pay them, and the dissidents were sent to the Gulag prison system to be beaten and freeze to death. When the Soviets conquered East Germany they dismantled the factories and rolled fragile sophisticated German machinery into boxcars literally rendering the equipment useless to East Germany and the Soviet Union. America did the opposite and made friends of our enemies. When the iron curtain came down we discovered they had acquired our sophisticate jet engines and could not even copy our technology because they lacked knowledge. We discovered that the jet engines of the Foxbat only lasted the length of the flight when they set records. American military engines that set records lasted 10,000 hrs and our commercial engines last 30,000 hrs.
Bush inherited a recession and a terrorist attack after Clinton who exposed us to attack by substantially dismantling the CIA, FBI, and our military. Bush gave us tax cuts, strengthened the economy and kept us out of a depression. He left Obama a recession and Obama called it a depression to make Bush look bad, to undermine confidence in the banks and to get himself elected. No previous political campaign since the great depression ever endangered America's economic health that way.
President Obama thinks European socialism is the answer and he took a bad recession and is now making it into an economic depression by dismantling the American economic engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. Yes, American creativity is so rapid that before socialist nations can copy what we do we have destroyed yesterday's technology by making it obsolete. That is how we survived Japanese copycats, China's piracy and theft of software etc. Yes American technological creativity is now being crushed by Obama socialist legislation.
Market forces August 14
The Wall Street euphoria had been based on their assumption that the socialist destruction of the worlds best medical system will fail. But the socialists are actually dismantling the American engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. Hover gave RDR a recession and socialism made it into a depression until WWII forced FDR to restore the American engine of creative destruction, free enterprise, and liberty. President Obama has stated that we must be more like the European socialists and he now completely controls the political machinery.
It is going to get a lot worse when Obama succeeds with his legislation. Those pump and dump stock market "let the good times roll" spinners are setting investors up for another market blood bath because they are not even as smart as the Obama socialists.
Market Outlook
A panic sell off of 25% in one day similar to 1987 is now a growing risk.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing to the sectors of the American population that have the least skill at managing money. It is a bailout of all the folks who defraud credit companies and banks. It is a bail out of all the folks that Senators Rangle and Dodd said should be given houses "no questions asked about affordability." We are seeing many on Wall Street getting multi million dollar bonuses for their part in the corruption of mortgage investment instruments. We are seeing federal tax cheats appointed to oversee the US finances. We see no attempt to monitor the $Trillions being thrown into the black hole of redistribution. They are still allowing mortgages "no questions asked."
If it were not for the incompetence of all the many socialist and communist governments of the world the incompetent American government would be under water today. The socialist world is like a high school where all the lazy, cheaters, and mediocre majority get together and hassle the good students to study less. That way they get the grades lowered and achieve greater equality. That makes the good teacher looks too strict and the lazy get to look like average students. They thus eliminate the inequality of grades caused by good students and achieve the equality of mediocrity. Obama is moving America from the inequality of affluence toward the equality of world poverty. The USA has a long way to fall because the USA used to be the world's best student.
Yesterday had continuing indications of the market topping out. Volume declined another 5% and the high for the day was no higher than the high the previous day. The spiral or parabolic SAR indicated the time to sell on August 11 and the MACD dropped to zero for the last two days. Once both go negative the buying window will be shut based on the methodology "respiral" we have documented since early 2007.
We definitely see bubble psychology everywhere again. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct (more than 10%) and offer real buying opportunities. The recent rally has the market in an extremely overbought and exhausted position again. If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down from the previous day: Communist China down -3%, socialist Japan up 0.7%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 0.2%, theocracy Jakarta down -0.4%, and socialist India down -0.7%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 0.2% to 0.6% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a potential buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
US stocks are up 47% and emerging markets are up 80% in just five months so be careful.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Wall Street is betting on Obama failing
The crisis is not the economy it is the socialist administration in office. But Wall Street is now counting on Obama failing.
Yesterday started with fraudulently spun reporting to all investors saying housing prices rose for the first time this year and the recession bottom was past history. Later the false information was corrected and in fact home prices dropped again on a month to month as well as a year to year basis. Indeed an international bank calculated that more than 25% of American mortgages were now underwater and it would rise to 40% underwater before the recession ended. Later all the news outlets issued corrections similar to the following.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Set Third Record-High in Five Months
By Dan Levy, Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed to a record for the third time in five months in July as falling home prices and the recession left more homeowners unable to keep up payments or refinance. A total of 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data seller RealtyTrac Inc. One in 355 households got a filing, the highest monthly rate in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005, the Irvine, California-based company said in a statement.
“We’re in a deep hole,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said in an interview. “There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy.”
The median price of an existing single-family house to $174,100 in the second quarter, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders are underwater, property data firm Zillow.com said Aug. 11.
“There are a slew of factors showing fundamental weakness on the demand side: tighter underwriting, job loss, investors who’ve been badly burned,” said Stuart Gabriel, director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate in Los Angeles. “We have not seen the bottom of the housing market.”
Market forces August 13
The Wall Street euphoria has been based on their assumption that the socialist destruction of the worlds best medical system will fail. Health care stocks have surged including the insurance companies that ultimately will be forced out of business when the bill passes. Stocks like insolvent profitless Hartford Insurance have tripled in price as investors wish and bet on an Obama failure. Recent public protests against the new entitlements and redistribution of wealth to the indigent have encouraged investors as well, but the socialists have majorities in both houses and the weak Republicans in congress want to compromise again. The socialists cannot lose until the 2010 election.
Sales continue to be flat except for the temporary car clunker $2Billion stimulus program. And that is flat even though the stimulus package is projected to put us at a $13Trillion dollar national debt. People on welfare are the primary recipients of the stimulus program as of reports yesterday. The new socialist system will cut checks to the "don't worry be-happy life" life stile voting block as working Americans pay higher taxes. Isn't that the definition of slavery? Yes, but in past slavery the slave owners were producers not of the "don't worry be-happy" folks. It seems like this administration is creating a new kind of Banana Republic.
Market Outlook
Yesterday was somewhat inconclusive so we will have to see what today brings us. Yesterday had all the indications of the market topping out. Volume was lackluster on early positive misinformation and then lost 30% of its gains in the last hour on high volume. The spiral or parabolic SAR said sell on August 11 and the MACD dropped to zero yesterday; not quite negative territory yet. It looked like a failed attempt to panic more investors into the market. That being said we concluded it was a failed retest of the market high. We definitely see bubble psychology under way. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct and offer buying opportunities.
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stock buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that are times to take profits. This may very well be a positive consolidation period not a negative distribution period. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall are usually times when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were rebounded slightly from sharp losses the previous day: Communist China up 2.1%, socialist Japan up 0.8%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 2.1%, and socialist India up 3.3$%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 1.2% to 1.9% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a higher USA market opening again this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
US stocks are up 47% and emerging markets are up 80% in just five months so be careful.
Yesterday started with fraudulently spun reporting to all investors saying housing prices rose for the first time this year and the recession bottom was past history. Later the false information was corrected and in fact home prices dropped again on a month to month as well as a year to year basis. Indeed an international bank calculated that more than 25% of American mortgages were now underwater and it would rise to 40% underwater before the recession ended. Later all the news outlets issued corrections similar to the following.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Set Third Record-High in Five Months
By Dan Levy, Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed to a record for the third time in five months in July as falling home prices and the recession left more homeowners unable to keep up payments or refinance. A total of 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data seller RealtyTrac Inc. One in 355 households got a filing, the highest monthly rate in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005, the Irvine, California-based company said in a statement.
“We’re in a deep hole,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said in an interview. “There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy.”
The median price of an existing single-family house to $174,100 in the second quarter, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders are underwater, property data firm Zillow.com said Aug. 11.
“There are a slew of factors showing fundamental weakness on the demand side: tighter underwriting, job loss, investors who’ve been badly burned,” said Stuart Gabriel, director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate in Los Angeles. “We have not seen the bottom of the housing market.”
Market forces August 13
The Wall Street euphoria has been based on their assumption that the socialist destruction of the worlds best medical system will fail. Health care stocks have surged including the insurance companies that ultimately will be forced out of business when the bill passes. Stocks like insolvent profitless Hartford Insurance have tripled in price as investors wish and bet on an Obama failure. Recent public protests against the new entitlements and redistribution of wealth to the indigent have encouraged investors as well, but the socialists have majorities in both houses and the weak Republicans in congress want to compromise again. The socialists cannot lose until the 2010 election.
Sales continue to be flat except for the temporary car clunker $2Billion stimulus program. And that is flat even though the stimulus package is projected to put us at a $13Trillion dollar national debt. People on welfare are the primary recipients of the stimulus program as of reports yesterday. The new socialist system will cut checks to the "don't worry be-happy life" life stile voting block as working Americans pay higher taxes. Isn't that the definition of slavery? Yes, but in past slavery the slave owners were producers not of the "don't worry be-happy" folks. It seems like this administration is creating a new kind of Banana Republic.
Market Outlook
Yesterday was somewhat inconclusive so we will have to see what today brings us. Yesterday had all the indications of the market topping out. Volume was lackluster on early positive misinformation and then lost 30% of its gains in the last hour on high volume. The spiral or parabolic SAR said sell on August 11 and the MACD dropped to zero yesterday; not quite negative territory yet. It looked like a failed attempt to panic more investors into the market. That being said we concluded it was a failed retest of the market high. We definitely see bubble psychology under way. We would not buy at these elevated prices but instead seek alternative investments such as corporate bonds except when individual stocks correct and offer buying opportunities.
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stock buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that are times to take profits. This may very well be a positive consolidation period not a negative distribution period. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall are usually times when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were rebounded slightly from sharp losses the previous day: Communist China up 2.1%, socialist Japan up 0.8%, oligarchy Hong Kong up 2.1%, and socialist India up 3.3$%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are up in a range of 1.2% to 1.9% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a higher USA market opening again this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
We anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market. Buy after they deflate a sector when there are bargains. The hedge funds move quickly in and out so after they move in it is usually too late.
US stocks are up 47% and emerging markets are up 80% in just five months so be careful.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Today the market is at a critical juncture
T minus zero.
We believe another 10%+ pullback is desirable at this point for the longer-term health of the market.
This year has seen an 80% surge in communist/socialist emerging market stocks, while the dollar has posted a decline. A declining dollar and surging emerging markets were the hallmarks of the credit-fueled stock bubble earlier this decade. Recent weeks have brought huge rallies in some of the lowest-quality American stocks such as AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are being propped up by the government and are unlikely to return to health any time soon. The market recently has behaved as though the FED has inflated a stock market bubble. It can consolidate now or it can be bid up to a panic collapse this fall.
When the Federal Reserve announces results of its policymaking meeting today, it is all but certain to leave its target for short-term interest rates near zero, and likely will indicate that it intends to keep rates there longer. The question is will the Fed offer a plan for how the central bank will unwind its inflationary interventions that prop up the economy while allowing the overhang of the impending avalanche of commercial and residential debt to unwind next. Financial crises usually come in unpredictable waves, and the Fed leaders still must deal with considerable risks that the economic decline could easily tip into a double-dip recession or stagflation as seen under the "malaise" of Jimmy Carter.
The breadth of the market advance to date has been very narrow and manipulated by the funds. That is why few people are feeling the worst is over. The stock market tipped negatively under increasing volume these past two days. Today we are at a decision point.
Stocks have surged even as employment continues to fall and unemployment exceeds 16 % when those who have given up or have exhausted their benefits are included. The rate of layoffs is still five times higher than the highest the Bush administration experienced. President Obama is recently seen as already a failed president whose main focus is on switching 40million of his supporters from the worlds most successful and charitable regulated private health care system to the standard slow and inept socialized system where his mostly 40million indigent but formally grateful supporters will take the funds from the aging population of workers who actually paid for the health system. Obama's 40million special interest supporters now outnumber the aging people who built the system. The new system modeled on that of Middle Eastern socialist theocracies believes wealth is a gift from Allah just like oil. It is an unearned gift, an entitlement that should be distributed just like unemployment insurance to the masses. The new America under the Obama dream will have 30% unemployment hidden by the fact that work is the least popular life style of the third world. Relax, be happy is the most popular life style of socialism in the world. Entitlements are undermining free enterprise and human rights throughout the world and are dependent on a vast bureaucracy of generally incompetent and dangerous leaders who usually are elected by vast majorities as Lenin, Hitler, Stalin, and Saddam Hussein were. That is because electorates typically prefer handouts not productive work.
The Federal Reserve has spent the past year cleaning up after a housing bubble it and the Senate Banking Commission had created. But along the way it may have pumped up another bubble, the stock market. The central bank has slashed interest rates while funneling money to banks. Stocks have bounced back with startling speed as distressed corporate takeovers have more than doubled pumping money into the stock market.
Economist David Rosenberg, who notes that consumer credit has dropped an unprecedented five straight months, said it's far from clear the recession is over. He says the risk of a market relapse later this year is high. He wrote in a note to clients Monday,
"This is the most speculative momentum-driven equity market since the early 1930s. We see this as the Fed has been financing the speculative mania that could end in another damaging rout."
Given free money, investors' appetite for risk shoots higher and they gobble up stocks. Unfortunately economic growth doesn't seem to support the higher stock values. That is a bubble that pops when the excesses of band loans and bad investments come home.
Short-term interest rates could soon head higher, judging by action in futures markets. That could raise companies' borrowing costs and the weight of the overburden of bad debt.
Market forces August 12
The market is at a nexus. Today it decides if a new equities bubble gets out of control and pops, or if the market can consolidate into a stronger value based portfolio.
Market Outlook
For more than a month now we have advised taking profits and getting out of the emerging markets. We were first to say they would lead us out of the recession and now we say they have become mine fields for investor losses.
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stock buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that are times to take profits. This may very well be a positive consolidation period not a negative distribution period. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall is usually a time when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
The communist/socialist economies of the third world are driven by American imports. Communist China's bureaucracy with an 8% growth rate is wasting its money on car production while embarrassing corporate executives are beaten to death by their masses or shot by the government! We recommended emerging markets more than six months ago and have warned readers to get out of emerging markets now for over a month. Last night Asian markets were down sharply: communist China down -4.7%, socialist Japan down -1.4%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -3%, theocratic Jakarta down -2.2%, and socialist India down -0.4%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are presently flat in a range of -0.1% to +0.5% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly higher USA market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
The new socialist indigent entitlement proponents seemingly destroy every free market sector that they touch as they strive to make America into a laid back don't worry be happy third world country. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama entitlement bills fail. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word. Mediocrity reigns greatest where inept and corrupt socialist governments rule. Look primarily at Africa and the Middle East for this administration's vision not Europe.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
We believe another 10%+ pullback is desirable at this point for the longer-term health of the market.
This year has seen an 80% surge in communist/socialist emerging market stocks, while the dollar has posted a decline. A declining dollar and surging emerging markets were the hallmarks of the credit-fueled stock bubble earlier this decade. Recent weeks have brought huge rallies in some of the lowest-quality American stocks such as AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are being propped up by the government and are unlikely to return to health any time soon. The market recently has behaved as though the FED has inflated a stock market bubble. It can consolidate now or it can be bid up to a panic collapse this fall.
When the Federal Reserve announces results of its policymaking meeting today, it is all but certain to leave its target for short-term interest rates near zero, and likely will indicate that it intends to keep rates there longer. The question is will the Fed offer a plan for how the central bank will unwind its inflationary interventions that prop up the economy while allowing the overhang of the impending avalanche of commercial and residential debt to unwind next. Financial crises usually come in unpredictable waves, and the Fed leaders still must deal with considerable risks that the economic decline could easily tip into a double-dip recession or stagflation as seen under the "malaise" of Jimmy Carter.
The breadth of the market advance to date has been very narrow and manipulated by the funds. That is why few people are feeling the worst is over. The stock market tipped negatively under increasing volume these past two days. Today we are at a decision point.
Stocks have surged even as employment continues to fall and unemployment exceeds 16 % when those who have given up or have exhausted their benefits are included. The rate of layoffs is still five times higher than the highest the Bush administration experienced. President Obama is recently seen as already a failed president whose main focus is on switching 40million of his supporters from the worlds most successful and charitable regulated private health care system to the standard slow and inept socialized system where his mostly 40million indigent but formally grateful supporters will take the funds from the aging population of workers who actually paid for the health system. Obama's 40million special interest supporters now outnumber the aging people who built the system. The new system modeled on that of Middle Eastern socialist theocracies believes wealth is a gift from Allah just like oil. It is an unearned gift, an entitlement that should be distributed just like unemployment insurance to the masses. The new America under the Obama dream will have 30% unemployment hidden by the fact that work is the least popular life style of the third world. Relax, be happy is the most popular life style of socialism in the world. Entitlements are undermining free enterprise and human rights throughout the world and are dependent on a vast bureaucracy of generally incompetent and dangerous leaders who usually are elected by vast majorities as Lenin, Hitler, Stalin, and Saddam Hussein were. That is because electorates typically prefer handouts not productive work.
The Federal Reserve has spent the past year cleaning up after a housing bubble it and the Senate Banking Commission had created. But along the way it may have pumped up another bubble, the stock market. The central bank has slashed interest rates while funneling money to banks. Stocks have bounced back with startling speed as distressed corporate takeovers have more than doubled pumping money into the stock market.
Economist David Rosenberg, who notes that consumer credit has dropped an unprecedented five straight months, said it's far from clear the recession is over. He says the risk of a market relapse later this year is high. He wrote in a note to clients Monday,
"This is the most speculative momentum-driven equity market since the early 1930s. We see this as the Fed has been financing the speculative mania that could end in another damaging rout."
Given free money, investors' appetite for risk shoots higher and they gobble up stocks. Unfortunately economic growth doesn't seem to support the higher stock values. That is a bubble that pops when the excesses of band loans and bad investments come home.
Short-term interest rates could soon head higher, judging by action in futures markets. That could raise companies' borrowing costs and the weight of the overburden of bad debt.
Market forces August 12
The market is at a nexus. Today it decides if a new equities bubble gets out of control and pops, or if the market can consolidate into a stronger value based portfolio.
Market Outlook
For more than a month now we have advised taking profits and getting out of the emerging markets. We were first to say they would lead us out of the recession and now we say they have become mine fields for investor losses.
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stock buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that are times to take profits. This may very well be a positive consolidation period not a negative distribution period. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall is usually a time when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
The communist/socialist economies of the third world are driven by American imports. Communist China's bureaucracy with an 8% growth rate is wasting its money on car production while embarrassing corporate executives are beaten to death by their masses or shot by the government! We recommended emerging markets more than six months ago and have warned readers to get out of emerging markets now for over a month. Last night Asian markets were down sharply: communist China down -4.7%, socialist Japan down -1.4%, oligarchy Hong Kong down -3%, theocratic Jakarta down -2.2%, and socialist India down -0.4%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are presently flat in a range of -0.1% to +0.5% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly higher USA market opening this morning. The financial sector is particularly overbought with commercial debt about to crash through the roofs.
The new socialist indigent entitlement proponents seemingly destroy every free market sector that they touch as they strive to make America into a laid back don't worry be happy third world country. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama entitlement bills fail. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word. Mediocrity reigns greatest where inept and corrupt socialist governments rule. Look primarily at Africa and the Middle East for this administration's vision not Europe.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. We must be capturing profits on the rallies and then finding better buys on the declines. That is called cherry picking the best buys. We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite.
Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Countdown at X minus one
There will be a correction very soon or prices will get so overbought that there will be a stock market panic again.
No one in the current administration knows what is going on as they throw money at everything hand over fist. See this example of lack of oversight.
http://dailybail.com/home/there-are-no-words-to-describe-the-following-part-ii.html
Lack of oversight goes with corruption. Corruption of government leads to economic failure.
Market forces August 11
The communist and socialist nations support the looting of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without the need for a war. Inflation is the way the socialist loot productive workers. It creates capital gains to push people into higher tax brackets and to create fictitious income.
600,000 unemployed to have unemployment benefits expire this month unless its term is extended again.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it that is true it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall is usually a time when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were up slightly: communist China up 0.7%, socialist Japan up 0.6%, and socialist India up 0.4%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of 0% to 0.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instance, stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day and has not yet been covered by a subsequent decline.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word. Mediocrity reigns greatest where inept and corrupt socialist governments rule.
No one in the current administration knows what is going on as they throw money at everything hand over fist. See this example of lack of oversight.
http://dailybail.com/home/there-are-no-words-to-describe-the-following-part-ii.html
Lack of oversight goes with corruption. Corruption of government leads to economic failure.
Market forces August 11
The communist and socialist nations support the looting of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without the need for a war. Inflation is the way the socialist loot productive workers. It creates capital gains to push people into higher tax brackets and to create fictitious income.
600,000 unemployed to have unemployment benefits expire this month unless its term is extended again.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it that is true it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time. Summer and early fall is usually a time when markets decline.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were up slightly: communist China up 0.7%, socialist Japan up 0.6%, and socialist India up 0.4%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of 0% to 0.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instance, stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day and has not yet been covered by a subsequent decline.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word. Mediocrity reigns greatest where inept and corrupt socialist governments rule.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Countdown is at X minus two
GE leaped 10.4% while we were away five business days. It appears that GE's financial sector will now survive intact. GE-Wal-Mart working together could be a very profitable partnership.
We're back and we think this market has at best two more days of life. Why? Because this eighteen-day rally seems too good to be true given the oversold condition and the history of major market lows occurring in September and October.
Does the market have to go down now? Certainly not! It could first explode upwards in a massive bull market trap and then collapse in a wild panic as it has done so many times especially in the 1930's and 1970's. In the later part of the 1970's many new investors bought in after Lyndon Johnson's massive "guns and butter" spending spree were so confident that they were far out on the limb on margin driving stock prices higher when in two late summer panic years they lost everything.
No if the market does not begin a correction before August 13 we expect another run-up and then a panic. GE is also in a particularly lucrative position as the owner of GE/MSNBC/Pravda which gives corrupt American politicians $billions in free continuous lobbing support and well as campaign attacks on anyone interested in American free enterprise or government fiscal responsibility.
Lately the Democrat-Socialist Congressman have come up with conspiracy theories saying that people who do not like their slow communist takeover are not middle class working taxpayers but the decadent conspiring bourgeois instead. They are true Marxists-Leninists when it comes to suppressing the minority of thinking American people.
Here is Obama's response when he backed off from his decision to let the military pay for their own medical expenses... what an empty headed person he must be... send this to everyone you know to show them just what he thinks of our military who fight for our country and get hurt and killed protecting our freedom!
Check out Snopes.com's response to this message at:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/veteranshealth.asp
"Bad press led to President Obama abandoning his proposal to require veterans carry private health insurance to cover the estimated $540 million annual cost to the federal government of treatment for injuries to military personnel received during their tours on active duty.
The President admitted that he was puzzled by the magnitude of the opposition to his proposal."Look, it's an all volunteer force," Obama complained… "Nobody made these guys go to war. They had to have known and accepted the risks. Now they whine about bearing the costs of their choice? It doesn't compute...”
"I thought these were people who were proud to sacrifice for their country," Obama continued. "I wasn't asking for blood, just money. With the country facing the worst financial crisis in its history, I'd have thought that the patriotic thing to do would be to try to help reduce the nation's deficit. I guess I underestimated the selfishness of some of my fellow Americans.""
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.
-Churchill
Market forces August 10
The communist and socialist nations support the looting of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without a war. Inflation is the way the socialist loot productive workers. It creates capital gains to push people into higher tax brackets and to create fictitious income.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it that is true it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down: communist China down - 0.4%, socialist Japan up +1.1%, and socialist India down -1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of -0.6% to -1.2% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instance, stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word.
We're back and we think this market has at best two more days of life. Why? Because this eighteen-day rally seems too good to be true given the oversold condition and the history of major market lows occurring in September and October.
Does the market have to go down now? Certainly not! It could first explode upwards in a massive bull market trap and then collapse in a wild panic as it has done so many times especially in the 1930's and 1970's. In the later part of the 1970's many new investors bought in after Lyndon Johnson's massive "guns and butter" spending spree were so confident that they were far out on the limb on margin driving stock prices higher when in two late summer panic years they lost everything.
No if the market does not begin a correction before August 13 we expect another run-up and then a panic. GE is also in a particularly lucrative position as the owner of GE/MSNBC/Pravda which gives corrupt American politicians $billions in free continuous lobbing support and well as campaign attacks on anyone interested in American free enterprise or government fiscal responsibility.
Lately the Democrat-Socialist Congressman have come up with conspiracy theories saying that people who do not like their slow communist takeover are not middle class working taxpayers but the decadent conspiring bourgeois instead. They are true Marxists-Leninists when it comes to suppressing the minority of thinking American people.
Here is Obama's response when he backed off from his decision to let the military pay for their own medical expenses... what an empty headed person he must be... send this to everyone you know to show them just what he thinks of our military who fight for our country and get hurt and killed protecting our freedom!
Check out Snopes.com's response to this message at:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/veteranshealth.asp
"Bad press led to President Obama abandoning his proposal to require veterans carry private health insurance to cover the estimated $540 million annual cost to the federal government of treatment for injuries to military personnel received during their tours on active duty.
The President admitted that he was puzzled by the magnitude of the opposition to his proposal."Look, it's an all volunteer force," Obama complained… "Nobody made these guys go to war. They had to have known and accepted the risks. Now they whine about bearing the costs of their choice? It doesn't compute...”
"I thought these were people who were proud to sacrifice for their country," Obama continued. "I wasn't asking for blood, just money. With the country facing the worst financial crisis in its history, I'd have thought that the patriotic thing to do would be to try to help reduce the nation's deficit. I guess I underestimated the selfishness of some of my fellow Americans.""
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.
-Churchill
Market forces August 10
The communist and socialist nations support the looting of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without a war. Inflation is the way the socialist loot productive workers. It creates capital gains to push people into higher tax brackets and to create fictitious income.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have now) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it that is true it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time.
If you have been buying stocks when they were low you are finding you have some large profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were down: communist China down - 0.4%, socialist Japan up +1.1%, and socialist India down -1%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of -0.6% to -1.2% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a slightly lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instance, stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan. Communists and socialists think "profit" is a dirty word.
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