The run on Spanish banks is accelerating. Spanish renewable-energy companies once got Europe’s biggest subsidies have been abandoned by the Spanish government, and now must sell and work abroad or perish.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.


The Obama supporting University of Michigan reported Consumer Confidence increased from 76.4 to 79.3 last Friday and this Monday the more objective Conference Board reported Consumer Confidence dropped from 68.7 to 64.9. We can expect the levels to be different but the Conference Board showed it dropped 3.8% which implies UM falsified the data by increasing it 6.7% the way Obama and Putin like to report.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_confidence

Stock buybacks have fallen to a three-year low as U.S. chief executive officers boost spending on plants and equipment to a record dropping profits in lieu of higher Obama tax rates. Then in anticipation of a profit friendly administration with Mitt Romney, the expanded plant production will then boost production, profits, and employment for Mitt Romney.

The Rasmussen reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows President Obama attracting 46% of the vote while Mitt Romney earns 45% support.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content


World market this week

The run on Spanish banks is accelerating. Spanish renewable-energy companies once got Europe’s biggest subsidies have been abandoned by the Spanish government, and now must sell and work abroad or perish.

Poland’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter as exports and fixed investments declined and weaken the case for central bank rate increases.

JPMorgan Chase estimates a 1-percentage point slump in the euro countries’ economy drags down growth elsewhere by 0.7 percentage point. Trade dependent China would be most adversely affected.

European markets climbed into the green on Tuesday on the heels of a strong session in Asia on hopes China will take action to boost its faltering economic expansion. But recent surveys show that China’s rising labor costs and a deteriorating regulatory environment are prompting almost a quarter of European Union companies to consider shifting investments out of China to other countries. That is what happened in Japan before they stagnated in the late 1980’s.

China's markets have declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;


American Economy
May 29 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar –2.6% a drop after –3.5% last month.

May 29 10:00 AM Conference Board Consumer Confidence May down to 64.9 from 69.2 last month, a huge drop that looks like an error of more than +6% optimism with the Obama-Holder UM number last Friday. The divergence could be just more Obama/ USSR style creative falsification of data.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_confidence

Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 05/26 -1.3% plunged again from 3.8%

Pending Home Sales Apr -5.5% collapsed from 4.1%

Today

May 31 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts May

May 31 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change May

May 31 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/26

May 31 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/19

May 31 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI May

May 31 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 05/26

This Week

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Average Workweek May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core April

Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index May

Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Apr


Market outlook May 31, 2012

The most frightening statistc now is the one MSNBC’s Crammer used to say was the best indicator for the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index is collapsing again after collapsing already 90% since the Obama-Holder regime was elected. It is saying world trade by boat has collapsed under Obama.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart


It has been calculated that each job the Obama-Holder created has cost American taxpayers $4.1 million.

The last week was up slightly but buying was very weak during the rise as indicated by the very low volume. The DJI is no longer a safe haven. The NYSE has also continues down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The DJI could not penetrate the head and shoulder neckline to the upside last week and has plunged again. If the downtrend has taken hold these new tests will be lower and the new lows will go lower too. The DOW Industrial’s confirmed the Dow Rails sell signal last week which means there was never a confirmed DOW buy signal since the drop starting on August 2, of 2011. The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

This next chart shows the Dow Rails hit resistance on upward movements and is plunging now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders sell signal. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began a potential depression cycle decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama-Holder regime Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 15% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama-Holder regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market volatility has a long way to go before the market bottoms. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Stock market update:

Asian markets were down again last night. China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down –0.3%, Singapore down -0.4%, Japan down –1.1 %.

European markets are mixed half way through their day in a range of 0.8% to -1.5%

American market futures are up about 0.4% in after hour trading at 7 AM EST.

Facebook is not the problem. The problem was the padding of the pockets of those running the IPO and the looting the investors.

Overpriced Facebook (without a profit) tumbled 26% so far. It will likely the biggest mistake most of its investors ever made. Facebook is not the problem. The problem was the padding of the pockets of those running the IPO and the looting the investors. It is a good product that has had its reputation put at risk and may no longer have credible management. The biggest risk is that the founders are billionaires and can now retire and the company may now sink into oblivion.


Overpriced Apple (without a leader) will likely be down 28% by October after the quarterly report, and down 50% or more by this time next year. That is because MSNBC rip-off commentators did not report revenue and profit this latest quarter compared to the best quarter last year. They compared to a poor quarter last year before a new product release.  We base these levels on resistance areas and gaps in price.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows President Obama attracting 46% of the vote while Mitt Romney earns 45% support.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content

World market this week

Spanish renewable-energy companies once got Europe’s biggest subsidies have been abandoned by the Spanish government, and now must sell and work abroad or perish.

A Greek departure from the currency would inflict “collateral damage,” say economists of Pacific Investment Management Co. a view echoed by economists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase & Co. At worst, it could spur sovereign defaults in Europe as well as bank runs, credit crunches and recessions that may spark more euro exits. Global trade and financial ties mean the pain wouldn’t be confined to the euro area. Yields on Span’s bonds are now approaching an unsustainable 7%.

JPMorgan Chase estimates a 1-percentage point slump in the euro countries’ economy drags down growth elsewhere by 0.7 percentage point. Trade dependent China would be most adversely affected.

European markets climbed into the green on Tuesday on the heels of a strong session in Asia on hopes China will take action to boost its faltering economic expansion. But recent surveys show that China’s rising labor costs and a deteriorating regulatory environment are prompting almost a quarter of European Union companies to consider shifting investments out of China to other countries. That is what happened in Japan before they stagnated in the late 1980’s.

China's markets have declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

American Economy

Yesterday

May 29 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar –2.6% a drop after –3.5% last month.

May 29 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence May down to 64.9 from 69.2 last month, ha huge drop that looks like an error



Today

May 30 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/26

May 30 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Apr


This Week

May 31 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts May

May 31 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change May

May 31 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/26

May 31 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/19

May 31 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI May

May 31 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 05/26

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Average Workweek May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core April

Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index May

Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Apr


Market outlook May 30, 2012
The last week was up slightly but buying was very weak during the rise as indicated by the very low volume. The DJI is no longer a safe haven. The NYSE has also continues down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The DJI could not pernetrate the head and shoulder neckline to the upside last week but may test it again. If the downtrend has taken hold these new tests will be lower and the new lows will go lower too. The DOW Industrial’s confirmed the Dow Rails sell signal last week which means there was never a confirmed DOW buy signal since the drop starting on August 2, of 2011. The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

This next chart shows the Dow Rails are hitting resistance on upward movements.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders sell signal. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began a potential depression cycle decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama-Holden regime Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 15% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama-Holden regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market volatility has a long way to go before the market bottoms. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is collapsing again after collapsing 90% already since the Obama-Holden regime elected. This is saying world trade by boat has collapsed under Obama.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:

Asian markets were down last night. China down -0.2%, Hong Kong down -1.9%, Singapore down -0.6%, Taiwan down -0%, Japan down –1.1 %.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of 0.2% to -1.9%

American market futures are down about -0.9% in after hour trading at 9 AM EST.

Overpriced Facebook (without a profit) tumbled 25% the first week. Overpriced Apple (without a leader) will likely be down 28% by October after the quarterly report, which will likely be down more than 25% from the same quarter last year.

Stock buybacks have fallen to a three-year low as U.S. chief executive officers boost spending on plants and equipment to a record dropping profits in lieu of higher Obama tax rates. Then in anticipation of a profit friendly administration with Mitt Romney, the expanded plant production will then boost production, profits, and employment for Mitt Romney.

Most voters continue to support a welcoming immigration policy but still feel the focus of immigration reform should be on gaining control of the border not legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living in the United States.

However: Twenty-nine percent (29%) still feel the focus of immigration reform should be legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living in the United States.

25% are Strongly Opposed to repeal President Obama’s national health care law.

24% are Very Concerned that efforts to identify and deport illegal immigrants violate the civil rights of some U.S. citizens

23% view France Very Unfavorably, and of course

26% strongly support President Obama

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/april_2012/questions_immigration_ii_april_20_21_2012


World market this week

A Greek departure from the currency would inflict “collateral damage,” say economists of Pacific Investment Management Co. a view echoed by economists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase & Co. At worst, it could spur sovereign defaults in Europe as well as bank runs, credit crunches and recessions that may spark more euro exits. Global trade and financial ties mean the pain wouldn’t be confined to the euro area. Yields on Span’s bonds are now approaching an unsustainable 7%.



JPMorgan Chase estimates a 1-percentage point slump in the euro countries’ economy drags down growth elsewhere by 0.7 percentage point. Trade dependent China would be most adversely affected.

European markets climbed into the green on Tuesday on the heels of a strong session in Asia on hopes China will take action to boost its faltering economic expansion. But recent surveys show that China’s rising labor costs and a deteriorating regulatory environment are prompting almost a quarter of European Union companies to consider shifting investments out of China to other countries. That is what happened in Japan before they stagnated in the late 1980’s.

China's markets have declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=1y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Last Week

Existing Home Sales Apr 4.61M up slightly from 4.48M (seasonal)

MBA Mortgage Index 05/19 3.8% sharply down from 9.2% (very bad)

New Home Sales Apr 343K up from 328K (very good)

FHFA Housing Price Index Mar 1.8% up from 0.3% (good)

Crude Inventories 05/19 0.883M contracts from 2.128M (fuel scarcity?)

Initial Claims 05/19 372K up from 370K (adjusted for Obama transfer of bad news) bad news

Continuing Claims 05/12 3284K up from 3265K (adjusted for Obama transfer of bad news) bad news

Durable Orders Apr 0.2% -up from -4.0% (good)

Durable Orders -ex Transportation Apr -0.6% slightly improved from -0.8%

Friday

Michigan Sentiment - Final May 79.3 77.improved from 77.8 as Obama is rejected by more Americans

Today

May 29 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar

May 29 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence May

This Week

May 30 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/26

May 30 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Apr

May 31 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts May

May 31 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change May

May 31 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/26

May 31 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/19

May 31 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1

May 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI May

May 31 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 05/26

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Average Workweek May

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr

Jun 1 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core April

Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index May

Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Apr


Market outlook May 29, 2012

The last week was up slightly but buying was very weak during the rise as indicated by the very low volume. The DJI is no longer a safe haven. The NYSE has also continues down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The DJI could not pernetrate the head and shoulder neckline to the upside last week but may test it again. If the downtrend has taken hold these new tests will be lower and the new lows will go lower too. The DOW Industrial’s confirmed the Dow Rails sell signal last week which means there was never a confirmed DOW buy signal since the drop starting on August 2, of 2011. The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

This next chart shows the Dow Rails are hitting resistance on upward movements.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders sell signal. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began a potential depression cycle decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama-Holder regime Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 15% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama-Holden regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market volatility has a long way to go before the market bottoms. The ugly Obama-Holden regime can get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is collapsing again after collapsing 90% already since the Obama-Holden regime elected. This is saying world trade by boat has collapsed under Obama.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:

Asian markets were up last night. China up 1.2%, Hong Kong up 1.3%, Singapore up 1.3%, Jakarta up 0%, Japan up 0.7 %.

European markets were up half way through their day in a range of -0.2% to 0.9%

American market futures are up about -0.1% in after hour trading at 8:30 AM EST.

Republican Florida Senator Rubio chastised Barack Obama on a number of issues

Not only did the Dow Rails recently fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal… but the Industrials now joined the Rails and both plunged and gave sell signals last week. This was a Dow Jones sell signal confirmation of the sell signal that occurred August 2, 2011.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

A CBS/New York Times panelback poll, in which interviewers call back respondents to a previous survey, showed Romney leading 46 to 43 percent -- and leading among women.

The Rasmussen said “Recent News Could Cause Panic for Obama Campaign.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/recent_news_could_cause_panic_for_obama_campaign


World market this week
China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time as demand for credit falls and stimulation policies fail. Will China lapse as Russia did into economic chaos and begin arresting and imprisoning political dissidents instead of the corrupt officials who are demanding kickbacks and threaten to destroy foreign investment in China?

Euro falls to 2007 levels making Europe a place to visit again. Germany shows more signs of a slowdown as their business climate deteriorates.

Singapore’s industrial production fell for the third time in four months in April as manufacturers cut output of electronics and pharmaceuticals and the Obama Depression spreads abroad.

Spain’s banking system will fail without another bailout.

The world braces for the looming Greek socialist economy’s collapse. European markets are down sharply this week.

China's markets have declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

American Economy

Last Week

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

MBA Mortgage Index 05/12 9.2% up from 1.7% seasonal

Housing Starts Apr 717K up from 699K seasonal

Building Permits Apr 715K up from 769K seasonal

Industrial Production Apr 0.6% up from 0.0% adjusted for manipulation

Capacity Utilization Apr 79.2% up from 78.6% good

Crude Inventories 05/12 2.128M down from 3.652M NG

Initial Claims 05/12 372K up from 367K removing Obama bias- Bad

Continuing Claims 05/05 3283K up from 3229K removing Obama bias- Bad

Philadelphia Fed May -5.8 down sharply from 8.5- very Bad

Leading Indicators Apr -0.1% down from 0.3%- very Bad



This Week
Existing Home Sales Apr 4.61M up slightly from 4.48M (seasonal)

MBA Mortgage Index 05/19 3.8% sharply down from 9.2% (very bad)

New Home Sales Apr 343K up from 328K (very good)

FHFA Housing Price Index Mar 1.8% up from 0.3% (good)

Crude Inventories 05/19 0.883M contracts from 2.128M (fuel scarcity?)

Yesterday
Initial Claims 05/19 372K up from 370K (adjusted for Obama transfer of bad news) bad news

Continuing Claims 05/12 3284K up from 3265K (adjusted for Obama transfer of bad news) bad news

Durable Orders Apr 0.2% -up from -4.0% (good)

Durable Orders -ex Transportation Apr -0.6% slightly improved from -0.8%

Today
May 25 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final May


Market outlook May 25, 2012

We expect that a major market sell-off will continue at least until Americans have hope there will be a change confirmed in November. The Obama-Holder regime has been a veritable socialist disaster of despair and decay.

Anyone with knowledge of history and a brain knows that all forms of socialism are economic and social forms of cannibalism that eat the souls of the people they rule.

Buying was very weak during the recent rise on very low volume. The DJI is no longer a safe haven. The NYSE has also plunged.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=6m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The DOW Industrial’s confirmed the Dow Rails sell signal last week. Confirmation means there was never a confirmed DOW buy signal after the collapse on August 2, of 2011. The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 was confirmed, and therefore it still holds from August 2, of 2011.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

This next chart shows that the US and hence the entire world is about to enter a major depression if Obama is not thrown out in November. The free market has topped out because of the feat of Obama socialization of America; “the world’s only unfettered economic engine”.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders sell signal. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama-Holden regime Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 15% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama-Holden regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market volatility has a long way to go before the market bottoms. The ugly Obama-Holden regime can get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Baltic Dry Index is collapsing again after collapsing 90% already since the Obama-Holden regime elected. This is saying world trade by boat has collapsed under Obama.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart


Stock market update:

Asian markets were mixed last night. China down –0.8%, Hong Kong down –1.3%, Singapore down –0.3%, Jakarta down –2.1%, Taiwan down –0.8% Japan up 0.2 %.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of 0.4% to -0.4%

American market futures are down about -0.1% in after hour trading at 8:00 AM EST.

We expect that a major market sell-off will continue at least until Americans have hope there will be a change confirmed in November.

Rush Limbaugh reported our findings yesterday about how the Obama regime distorts statistics optimistically and then degrades them to closer to actual levels a week after they are reported. Basically the wanna-be socialists prefer to err on the positive side and then correct them downward when no one is looking. The unemployed are ignored by the Obama-Holder regime.


The wanna-be Apple billionaires similarly deceived Apple buns by not telling them that they compared the last quarter with the newest Apple product to the quarter before Apple introduced Steve Jobs new product last year. That means that next Quarter Apple with be shown automatically declining in sales and income because it will be compared to Steve Jobs’ best quarter ever that occurred last year. At that time everyone will realize the wanna-bees have already sold out of Apple at the top… and Apple profits peaked last year before founder Steve Jobs died. That is the same trick the wanna-be Obama socialists use as often as they can. Apple-buns will lose their shirts.

Wanna-be Facebook billionaires will (we predict) make a mad rush to the door when the public realizes that Facebook has not made a profit and no one on Facebook or using hand-held products can stand the advertising much less will be willing to pay for the bandwidth that advertising costs both in time and money. New Facebook buyers will lose their shirts. It is called irrational exuberance, deception, or socialism depending on who is selling you the bill-of-goods.

The Baltic Dry Index is declining again and it is already less than 10% of its 2008 high before Obama came to save America. Not only did the Dow Rails recently fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal… but the Industrials now joined the Rails and both plunged and gave sell signals yesterday. This is a Dow Jones sell signal and you heard it first here.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI+Basic+Chart

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 46% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Rasmussen was within 0.5% accuracy on both candidates in the 2008 election. Wanna-be socialists are getting into panic mode.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/recent_news_could_cause_panic_for_obama_campaign

The socialists are very, very close to turning America into a Welfare State like Greece. Gallup, Rasmussen, and the NY Times found that registered voters are more likely to say Mitt Romney, if elected president, would do a very good or good job of handling the economy than they are to say President Obama would, if re-elected. However if everyone on welfare voted. Obama would win by a landslide and we could become the Obama Socialist Banana Republic of America overnight. See: http://www.staged.com/video?v=x4u



World market this week

Sixteen of Spain’s Banks were downgraded three levels by Moody’s yesterday. Stocks headed for the worst week in six months and Brent fell to this year’s lowest level as China’s economy showed more signs of slowing. Everyone else is afraid to say it but the Dow Jones Industrials and Rails both gave sell signals yesterday just as they did in early August the day the market collapsed last year. This is a world crisis for Socialists in America and abroad.

Greece is starting to have runs on banks as citizens withdraw their Euros before Greece is kicked off the Euro and all the Euro’s are withdrawn and the savings of the Greek people is devalued with worthless Greek currency. The European Central Bank said it stopped lending to some Greek banks to limit its risk as President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB wouldn’t compromise to keep Greece in the euro area. The Greek socialists are predicted to win a ruling majority with the next election. The fear is that people in Italy and Spain will also panic and run on their banks. The government was forced to deny yesterday that clients were also scrambling to withdraw funds from Spain's largest property lender, Bankia.

There are just not enough euro's in circulation in Europe if everyone panics. Even the German banks would have to close. The printing presses would have to spin and the Euro could drop 10%to 20% very rapidly. So people would buy what??? Obama banana republic dollars? It is likely that people will have another chance to unload their gold on India and China.

Risk of multiple crashing world stock markets is very high now. The pall of the Obama 2007-2008 declared worldwide Great Depression grew last month as European exports and consumer demand dropped in March and as the euro region’s spreading fiscal crisis undermined the economy further. Socialists are idiots and will say anything and fraudulently report anything to get the power to steal the wealth of their homeland. Then they take over the news media and shut down the truthful reporters and just have socialist propaganda. The British just took down and discredited the most truthful conglomerate in the world, the one that owns Fox News. Then when the socialists have only the George Soros’ MSNBC/Pravda propaganda machine left they will kill you for reporting what they do.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Wall street is beginning to shake now. Hedgefund managers are running scared, so scared no one dares to admit the sky is indeed falling this time. Anything could rock the boat. We are on the cusp of a market collapse similar to last August. The American economy is going nowhere but the MSNBC hype of Jim Cramer suddenly went cold and Jim was running scared the past two nights.

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

MBA Mortgage Index 05/12 9.2% up from 1.7% seasonal

Housing Starts Apr 717K up from 699K seasonal

Building Permits Apr 715K up from 769K seasonal

Industrial Production Apr 0.6% up from 0.0% adjusted for manipulation

Capacity Utilization Apr 79.2% up from 78.6% good

Crude Inventories 05/12 2.128M down from 3.652M NG

Yesterday

Initial Claims 05/12 372K up from 367K removing Obama bias- Bad

Continuing Claims 05/05 3283K up from 3229K removing Obama bias- Bad

Philadelphia Fed May -5.8 down sharply from 8.5- very Bad

Leading Indicators Apr -0.1% down from 0.3%- very Bad



Market outlook May 18, 2012

A major “Head and Shoulders Sell signal” was give in the NYSE and in both DOW indices. The wave of worldwide investment market crashes is upon us now. Only, news that the American Socialist Regime will be thrown out in November will turn things around because if the American Constitution is changed by the Socialist Regime, there will be no Americans fighting for freedom in the world again. The new Nazis and Communists will start to divide up the world between themselves again and then declare war on each other. Such is the ignorance and stupidity of all socialists. Anyone with knowledge of history and a brain knows that all forms of socialism are economic and social forms of cannibalism that eat the souls of the people they rule.

Selling was broad-based again yesterday on higher volume we have not seen in half a year. We are breaking lows again and a downside even with the safe-haven DOW Industrials and Rails. The DJI is no longer a safe haven. The NYSE begins its plunge too.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=6m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Rails gave a sell signal. The DOW Industrial’s confirming sell signal occurred yesterday. Confirmation means there was never a DOW buy signal since the collapse on August 2, of 2011. The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 was confirmed again yesterday, and therefore it still holds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

We all know that the Obama-Holder regime has destroyed the American economy with his socialist corruption transferring taxpayer money to scam artists, identity thieves, liars, unions and by making many Americans and even our soldiers dependant on food stamps. We are much worse off now with The Obama-Holden regime in 2012 than we were with Bush when The Obama-Holder regime took office. Obama is so simple minded he does not understand that the Robin Hood principle of stealing from the rich to give to the poor only works when there is someone who still makes a profit… an income. If there is no income all Obama can do is spend America into bankruptcy. But once you begin to steal from productive people they refuse to be enslaved so they withdraw from the economy and join John Gault. They live off their cash. Then the socialist system collapses, as did Communism in 1989. If you take their cash and murder the productive people as they did in the USSR, China, and Cambodia the collapse is even faster and there is starvation. America, the wealthiest country in the world could be facing starvation with another four years of simple-minded Obama-Holder regime bumbling. As you can see below, the situation now is very much like it was the first time Obama announced we were in an economic depression so that he could get elected the president of hope and change. Real unemployment more than doubled but the stock market is back up in the stratosphere with the $trillions Obama is handing out to his socialist friends. Do you think we are better off now?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders sell signal. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama-Holden regime Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 15% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama-Holden regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Asian markets were down sharply last night. China down –1.5%, Hong Kong down –1.3%, Singapore down –1.5%, S. Korea down –3.4%, Taiwan down –2.8% Japan down –3 %.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of –2.4% (Sweden) to +0.2% (Germany).

American market futures are up at about 0.4% in after hour trading at 8:30 AM EST as MSNBC is afraid to tell the America this morning that the Obama-Holden regime is a veritable socialist disaster of despair and decay.

We are much worse off now with Obama in 2012 than we were with Bush when Obama took office. If there is no income all Obama can do is spend America into bankruptcy.

The socialists are very close to turning America into a Welfare State like Greece. Gallup reported that registered voters are more likely to say Mitt Romney, if elected president, would do a very good or good job of handling the economy than they are to say President Obama would, if re-elected -- 61% vs. 52%.  However if everyone on welfare voted. Obama would win by a landslide.  See:    http://www.staged.com/video?v=x4u


According to a poll released Tuesday night by E-Poll Market Research, Facebook scored a 5 in terms of trustworthiness, compared with 13 for Google.

The Baltic Dry Index is declining again and it is already less than 10% of its 2008 high. Not only did the Dow Rails fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal but the Industrials now joined the Rails and both are testing their lows together and could break down and both say sell today. The rails are within 0.5% and the Industrials are about 1% away from a Dow sell signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Illegal immigrants from Mexico now spurn fieldwork and take jobs from American construction workers. States in the southern and southwestern U.S. have passed immigration crackdowns, and the Supreme Court signaled last week it might be prepared to support an Arizona law that requires police to check the immigration status of anyone they suspect is in the country illegally during stops, arrests or detentions. See: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-30/immigration-stalls-as-opportunities-wane-on-u-s-mexican-border.html

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 48% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided. Given the chance, 68% would vote to replace the entire Congress and start from scratch.

Rasmussen was within 0.5% accuracy on both candidates in the 2008 election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



World market this week

Greece is starting to have runs on banks as citizens withdraw their Euros before Greece is kicked off the Euro and all the savings of the Greek people is devalued with Greek currency. The European Central Bank said it would temporarily stop lending to some Greek banks to limit its risk as President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB won’t compromise on key principles to keep Greece in the euro area. The Greek socialists are predicted to win a ruling majority with the next election.  The fear is that people in Italy and Spain will also panic and run on their banks.  There are not enough euro's in circulation  if everyone panics.  Even the German banks would have to close.
Risk of multiple crashing world stock markets is at a high now. The pall of the Obama 2007-2008 declared worldwide Great Depression grew last month as European exports and consumer demand dropped in March and as the euro region’s spreading fiscal crisis undermined the economy further.

The spread investors demand to hold benchmark German debt instead of Spanish 10-year bonds widened to a euro-era record of more than 5 percentage points. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain faces being shut out of financial markets as their interest costs rise. Spanish banks may be downgraded again today. Spanish bonds fell after borrowing costs rose at a debt sale. Greece’s 2 percent security maturing in February 2023 declined more than 13.54 percent in the last two weeks.

This week started with Irish two-year yields jumping 55 basis points to 6.84 percent. .55/(6.84-.55) = a 8.7% loss in value in one day. France auctioned two-, three-, four- and five-year securities. The average yield on the September 2014 notes was 0.74 percent, compared with 0.85 percent at the last auction on April 19. On the February 2017 debt, it was 1.72 percent, down from 1.83 percent in the previous sale. Interest rates fall as depression gloom descends. Europe is becoming another failed socialist Japan. Japan has been stuck with low interest and low growth for over twenty years.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Wall street is beginning to shake now. Hedgefund managers are running scared, so scared no one dares to say anything that could rock the boat. We are on the cusp of a market collapse similar to last August. The American economy is going nowhere but the MSNBC hype of Jim Cramer suddenly went cold and Jim was running scared last night.

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 05/12 9.2% up from 1.7% seasonal

Housing Starts Apr 717K up from 699K seasonal

Building Permits Apr 715K up from 769K seasonal

Industrial Production Apr 0.6%% up from 0.0% adjusted for manipulation

Capacity Utilization Apr 79.2% up from 78.6% good

Crude Inventories 05/12 2.128M down from 3.652M

Today

May 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/12

May 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/05

May 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed May

May 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Apr



Market outlook May 17, 2012

A major “Head and Shoulders Sell signal” was give in the NYSE. The risk of world wide market crashes is high now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=6m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

More and more analysts were pointing out that the market is topping and has not been able to break out the top. Selling was broad-based again yesterday on higher volume. We are testing lows again and a downside breakout is again a real threat today even with the safe-haven DOW Industrials and Rails. The DJI has some grossly inflated stock prices and is no longer reflecting the stock market because people go to the DJI when they are afraid and seek safety during uncertainty. Consequently we no longer see the DJI as a safe haven.

The Rails are about 0.5% away from another mutual sell signal. The DOW Rails needed to break their July 7, 2011 high to give a buy signal but that never happened. No Dow Rails confirmation means there has been no DOW buy signal for the last year since the collapse on August 2, of 2011. The DOW Theory Industrials and Rails confirmed sell signal of August 2, 2011 therefore still holds. It is still looking like a new head and shoulder Dow sell signal confirmation is forming not a buy signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The DJI is about 1% away from its first new sell signal since August 2, 2011. It looks like the collapse of 2008 about to happen again. But we all know in our minds that Obama has destroyed the American economy with his socialist corruption transferring taxpayer money to scam artists, identity thieves, liars, unions and making many Americans dependant on food stamps. We are much worse off now with Obama in 2012 than we were with Bush when Obama took office. Obama is so simple minded he does not understand that the Robin Hood principle of stealing from the rich to give to the poor only works when there is someone who still makes a profit… an income. If there is no income all Obama can do is spend America into bankruptcy. But once you begin to steal from productive people they refuse to be enslaved so they withdraw from the world and join John Gault. They live off their cash. Then the socialist system collapses, as did Communism in 1989. If you take their cash and murder the productive people as they did in the USSR, China, and Cambodia the collapse is even faster and there is starvation. America, the wealthiest country in the world could be facing starvation with another four years of simple-minded Obama bumbling.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Asian markets were up last night. China up 1.4%, Hong Kong down –0.3%, India up 0.2%, Singapore down –0.3%, Japan up 0.9%.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of –1.7% (Britain) to +0.1% (Swiss).

American market futures are down at about –0.4% in after hour trading at 8:00 AM EST

Wall Street is quaking today. The New York Stock exchange second neckline has broken as well as the first. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks. Markets could crash in some countries.

Baltic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. Not only did the Dow Rails fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal but the Rails and Industrials are testing lows again and could break down and both say sell today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Bloomberg reported that Facebook’s early investor, Saverin, joins a growing number of people giving up U.S. citizenship ahead of a possible increase in tax rates for top earners. The Brazilian-born resident of Singapore is one of several people who helped Mark Zuckerberg start Facebook and stand to reap obscene potential billions of dollars after the world’s largest social network holds its IPO. Saverin’s name is on a list of socialists who chose to renounce citizenship as of April 30, published by the Internal Revenue Service. Saverin made that move “around September” of last year, according to his spokesman. He prefers to go back to his own Banana Republic than pay taxes to the Obama Banana Republic. One reason for the Obama Great Depression is… Obama is driving wealth into cash, not investment, and he is driving wealthy people out of the USA. Obama does not understand that when taxes approach socialist Banana Republic levels, then raising taxes actually decreases tax revenue. Obama is not nearly as smart as Ronald Regan who lowered taxes, got more tax revenue, reduced the budget deficit and started America’s greatest growth period in the second half of the 20th century.

Jamie Dimon apparently is a big socialist investment looser who supports of Obama and has visited the White House a reported 16 times since the Obama Depression moved in.  MIT Sloan School professor and former IMF chief economist, Simon Johnson , says Jamie Dimon should also resign for taking such a stupid risk after taking the USA bailout.  Jamie got over $50 Million in salary and bonuses so far and this loss proves he did not earn it. Even Jamie admits it was a major mistake and fired three underlings. Incompetent Obama friends should not be allowed to profit from bankrupting America Companies.

http://compliancesearch.com/wallstreetjobreport/should-jamie-dimon-resign-over-trading-loss/

Governor Walker defeats Obama Union bosses and their attempt recall him for ending union control over the State budget.

Gallup reported that 61% registered voters think business executive Mitt Romney, if elected president, would do a very good or good job of handling the economy compared to 52% for Obama.  Obama is beginning to complain about negative media.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 48% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided. Given the chance, 68% would vote to replace the entire Congress and start from scratch.

Rasmussen was within 0.5% accuracy on both candidates in the 2008 election.  Other polls are usually off by more than 2%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



World market this week

Risk of crashing world stock markets is at a high now. The pall of the Obama 2008 campaign declared worldwide Great Depression grew last month as European exports and consumer demand dropped in March and as the euro region’s spreading fiscal crisis undermined the economy further.

The spread investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German debt widened to a euro-era record of more than 5 percentage points. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain faces being shut out of financial markets.

Greece’s 2 percent security maturing in February 2023 declined for a 12th day, pushing the price down to 13.54 percent.

Irish two-year yields jumped 55 basis points to 6.84 percent. .55/(6.84-.55) = 8.7% loss in value in one day.

France auctioned two-, three-, four- and five-year securities. The average yield on the September 2014 notes was 0.74 percent, compared with 0.85 percent at the last auction on April 19. On the February 2017 debt, it was 1.72 percent, down from 1.83 percent in the previous sale. Interest rates fall as depression gloom descends. Europe is becoming another failed socialist Japan. Japan has been stuck with low interest and low growth for over twenty years.

Singapore Airlines Ltd., flying to Athens since 1972, will halt the service to the Greek capital starting October because of weak demand.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are going lower. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like the head and shoulder sell signal is getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Wall street is beginning to shake now.  Hedgefund managers are running scared, so scared no one dares to say anything that could rock the boat. We are on the cusp of a market collapse similar to last August

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

Today

May 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/12

May 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Apr

May 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr

May 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/12

May 16 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 4/25

This Week

May 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/12

May 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/05

May 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed May

May 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Apr



Market outlook May 16, 2012

A major “Head and Shoulders Sell signal” was give in the NYSE. The risk of world wide market crashes is high now.

More and more analysts were pointing out that the market is topping and has not been able to break out the top. Selling was broad-based again yesterday on higher volume. We are testing lows again and a downside breakout is again a real threat today.

he DJI has some grossly inflated stock prices and is no longer reflecting the stock market because people go to the DJI when they are afraid and seek safety during uncertainty. Consequently we no longer see the DJI as a safe haven.

No Dow Rails confirmation means there is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is still looking like a head and shoulder Dow sell signal forming not a buy signal. The Rails are testing lows again and could break down today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

n a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) sell signal was given. The New York Stock exchange second neckline has broken as well as the first. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

altic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Markets are tumbling today.

Asian markets were down again last night. China down –1.2%, Hong Kong down -3.2%, India down –1.8%, S. Korea down –3.8%, Taiwan down –2.2%, Japan down –1.1%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of –1.5% to +0.3%

American market futures are flat at about –0.1% in after hour trading at 7:00 AM EST

Obama does not understand that when taxes get too high, then raising taxes actually decreases tax revenue. Obama is not nearly as smart as Ronald Regan who lowered taxes, got more tax revenue, reduced the budget deficit and started America’s greatest growth period in the second half of the 20th century.

One reason for the Obama Great Depression is Obama is driving wealth into cash, not investment, and he is driving wealthy people out of the USA. Bloomberg reported that Saverin joins a growing number of people giving up U.S. citizenship ahead of a possible increase in tax rates for top earners. The Brazilian-born resident of Singapore is one of several people who helped Mark Zuckerberg start Facebook in a Harvard University dormitory and stand to reap billions of dollars after the world’s largest social network holds its IPO. Saverin’s name is on a list of people who chose to renounce citizenship as of April 30, published by the Internal Revenue Service. Saverin made that move “around September” of last year, according to his spokesman. As a non-US Citizen, Saverin’s estimated gain, and subsequent tax bill, would be based on an appraisal by his tax advisers when he gave up his US Citizenship. They could have valued his Facebook stake at less than it will be worth once shares trade publicly, reducing his liability. For tax purposes, Saverin could justify that the value of his stake should be discounted because of the potential difficulty of selling the shares while the company remains private.


Scott Thompson was fired by Yahoo Sunday as its chief executive and chairman following a scandal over falsifying his CEO resume to say he had an advanced degree in Computer Science. It is a matter of having no integrity and lying, two character issues symptomatic of dishonesty and corruption.

California’s Jerry Brown is running a state budget deficit as bad as Greece’s deficit.

Three top executives involved with a failed hedging strategy that cost JPMorgan Chase & Co at least a $2 billion loss and tarnished its reputation are expected to leave the bank. Simon Johnson, MIT Sloan School professor and former IMF chief economist, says Jamie Dimon should also resign for taking too much risk after taking the USA bailout. Jamie got over $50 Million in salary and bonuses and this loss proves he did not earn it. The regulations need to be written to retroactively claw back the salaries and bonuses of all the JP Morgan executives involved in the loss decisions.



World market this week

Spanish borrowing costs are at euro-era high. The reaction to Madrid’s banking sector reforms remains strained.

BRUSSELS EU reported today that output at factories in the euro zone unexpectedly fell in March, the latest in a series of disappointing numbers. Industrial production in the 17 countries sharing the euro fell 0.3 percent in March from February, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Monday. Stock market advisors had expected a 0.4 percent increase in the month.



Italian market watchdog Consob chairman Giuseppe Vegas said on Monday, days after JP Morgan (JPM) unveiled a $2 billion trading loss due to a failed hedging strategy that MILAN authorities must regulate and even ban financial products that can wipe out people's savings. He cited high frequency trading and exchange traded funds as potentially dangerous products and practices whose risks need to be monitored because they can have systemic repercussions.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like the head and shoulder sell signal is getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Last week Sy Harding discovered what we have been saying for months now. Most of the world markets look like head and shoulder bear markets. They have been stopped where they were stopped in the past. Today an analyst on Squawk Box showed the same problem with the market plus the low volume on advances that shows the weakness. We are waiting only for the final shoe to fall when the second neckline of the like head and shoulder is broken.

This week Sy Harding is showing what we have told investors since gold hit its high mid way through last year. Silver is doing even worse. They are hedges for inflation but Obama is setting the world up for a depression where cash is king just like when J.P. Morgan became the richest man in the world by investing his cash pile when cash was king. Spain and Latin America always have inflation but they have little effect on the world economy. President Obama’s declared World Depression remains the world’s current fear. That is why America needs to throw Obama and his Congressional liberals out in November.

Last Week
Corrected and uncorrected data still being mixed allowing Obama to report anything he wants and the to change it the next week. So he can report a better number this week to make the economy look good relative to last week and then raise this weeks number next week to make next week look better. If it was just a random error it would not make the economy look good most of the time.

Initial Claims 05/05 370K up from 365K likely got worse

Continuing Claims 04/28 3243K down from 3276K likely improved less

Trade Balance Mar -$51.8B worsened from -$45.4B

Export Prices ex-erg. Apr 0.2% down from 0.5% deflation

Import Prices ex-oil Apr 0.1% down from 0.5% deflation

Treasury Budget Apr $59.1B increased from -$40.4B due to April tax collection.

Friday

PPI Apr -0.2% declined from 0.0% indicates dangerous deflation.

Core PPI Apr 0.2% down slightly from 0.3% still reasonable.

Mich. Sentiment May 77.8 up from 76.4, a good sign.

This Week

May 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Apr

May 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Apr

May 15 8:30 AM CPI Apr

May 15 8:30 AM Core CPI Apr

May 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing May

May 15 9:00 AM Net long-term TIC Flows Mar

May 15 10:00 AM Business Inventories Mar

May 15 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index May

May 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/12

May 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Apr

May 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr

May 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/12

May 16 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 4/25

May 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/12

May 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/05

May 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed May

May 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Apr



Market outlook May 14, 2012

More and more analysts are pointing out that the market is topping and has not been able to break out. The DJI has some grossly inflated stock prices and is no longer reflecting the stock market because people go to the DJI when they are afraid and seek safety during uncertainty. Consequently we no longer see the DJI as a safe haven.

No Dow Rails confirmation means there is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is still looking like a head and shoulder Dow sell signal forming not a buy signal. The DJI looks overpriced.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months), the New York Stock exchange second neckline was confirmed having broken below the first neckline and now the second neckline is being tested. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For a Dumbama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Dumbama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

We expect the VIX to soar and be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Dumbama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index has just peaked this past month at only at 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:

Markets are tumbling today.

Asian markets were down last night. China down –0.6%, Hong Kong down –1.2%, India down –0.5%, S. Korea down –0.2%, Japan up 0.2%.

European markets were down sharply half way through their day in a range of –1.5% to-2.8% with Greece an outlier down -5.8%

American market futures are down about -0.8% in after hour trading at 7:30 AM EST

The new-Republican House votes to cut food stamps to avoid defense reduction but the Obama Senate thinks food stamps will buy them the votes they need to stay in power.

The only hope for world free enterprise now is to vote the entire socialist establishment out in November and cut federal salaries and pensions as much as it takes to get spending back under control.

The Road to Serfdom (airs tonight at 9PM on FBN)

AGENDA: Grinding America Down, see

http://agendadocumentary.com/trailer/


John Gault has been sitting on a pile of cash because he sees no point in working and creating jobs so that the Obama socialists can just confiscate his earnings with higher taxes. American taxes have become legal extortion for socialists that use voter fraud so that the viscous and idle can get elected and rob the treasuries of Democratic Republics like the USA and our allies. So John Gault takes his money, closes his shop and moves out of the USA to his safe haven.

Yet, Oboma can’t understand why GE (which is run by his chief economic advisor) pays no taxes and there are no jobs being created. It is because the real wealth creators can only avoid extortion by shutting down and staying in cash. Cash is king today because we use credit and there is very little cash in circulation. That is why no one who is smart buys gold any more. Cash is king because socialists ultimately confiscate gold from the rich and the banks when they nationalize everything if they are not thrown out of office or engaged in another world war. Socialism fails because the people pretend to work because the viscous and idle get everything at first and the government pretends they pay a middle class. Ultimately socialism leads to bare shelves in stores and abject poverty for all.

Remember the Nazi, Fascists, and international socialists (communists) are all just atheist variations on the original “Christian Socialism” which is the only “compassionate” socialism. Moron leftists still think socialism is compassionate. That is only true of Christian Socialism. Unfortunately for the compassionate but moronic liberals, 99% of the socialism in this world is atheistic, Moslem, Hindu, or Buddhist where individual lives and compassion have no place. And the compassionate “Christian Socialists” of Europe are going bankrupt now and the fascist and communist socialists are on the rise again in Europe.

ACORN, Black Panthers, Puerto Rican terrorists…all the friends of the socialist Obama-Holden Administration, are the examples of the petty greed of socialists and their viscous and idle following. They are why John Gault sold and took his cash and moved to a safe hideout. That is how the story ends. The economy collapses when the movers and shakers abandon the socialists. It would collapse anyway because if you help a socialist you end up with a new Hitler or a new Stalin and that means you likely end up dead anyway. Even when they win you still end up dead. The socialists get power and then become the killer socialists. They are beginning to get the votes in Greece and France now. It is better for John Gault to retire long before the national socialists or international socialists take power. At least that was John Galt’s theory. Once the socialist economy fails… all the government jobs are lost in one fell swoop and the movers and shakers re-enter and support the new free enterprise political leadership and it all starts over as it did in Germany, or slowly transitions as it has been recently in Russia and China.

Read just how ignorant, moronic, and insane socialists really can be when moronic liberals give them cradle to grave control of their lives. People who were deemed to have been the lazy elite, (in other words the educated and the skilled), were brutally murdered. Every vestige of the former free way of life had to be destroyed. Many people tried to conceal their identity or former occupation, but were eventually found out or betrayed. Whole families were executed. Babies were killed by smashing their skulls against trees. Hitler did the same with gas and bullets. Stalin and Mao used mainly bullets.

http://www.cambcomm.org.uk/holocaust.html

http://david.shortens.net/tag/north-korean-genocide/

http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.CHAP10.HTM


James Madison in the Federalist Papers, Feb 5, 1788 warned the Massachusetts Convention, "but as a just government protects all alike, it is necessary that the sober and industrious part of the community should be defended from the rapacity and violence of the vicious and idle. A bill of rights, therefore, ought to set forth the purposes for which the compact is made, and serves to secure the minority against the usurpation and tyranny of the majority."

The American Bill of Rights gives Americans the right to have guns, not just to hunt. Jefferson said, “The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government”. That is correct, our Founding Fathers protected the rights of all Americans to bear arms against any socialist dictator who tries to take away our Constitutional Rights and impose their version of socialist tyranny.

We need to get Obama and his entire following out of our American government. If we do not clean up America, there will be a WW III between the raging Nationalist and International Atheistic Socialists and a world-wide Holocaust of intelligent humans everywhere who do not fit the socialist cradle to grave care routine (which intelligent people recognize as the definition of universal slavery). And if America does not have its act together there will be no one left to rescue the world this time.

Socialist cradle to grave care = universal slavery

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 45% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another two percent (2%) are undecided. During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point

.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


World market this week

World markets plummet as investors get out before the weekend analysis of the damages. Hedge funds, which had pushed the markets higher on recent Fridays, are returning to the shot side to be safe.

Investors are concerned and anticipating Greek exit from the euro region will roil markets anew. This comes on top of JP Morgan complicating a trade by hedging a risk with equally bad risks. Japan and other countries promise to provide liquidity for what could be a day when investors begin shorting the market.

Emerging-market stocks headed for the biggest weekly loss since November as disappointing Chinese and Indian production data and a $2 billion trading loss at JPMorgan Chase & Co. spurred concern that global growth will falter. There is a high risk that Obama will attack with his new Volker rule.

Danske’s Realkredit Danmark A/S, in the Denmark has fired Moody’s, arguing the Moody’s assessments are based too much on truthful models not socialist hype. Jyske Bank A/S (JYSK), Denmark’s second-biggest listed lender, said last month it’s reviewing its relations with Moody’s as fear of Moody downgrades grows among the socialist country’s lenders. This only fuels the concern that incompetence pervades the increasingly socialist world banking system to its very core. To socialists data is not for management use but for feel-good propaganda use.

UBS is still dealing with the fallout from unauthorized trades by London-based UBS employee Kweku Adoboli, which the bank said led to a $2.3 billion loss.

Recently Ramon Braga, a trader on the corporate-credit desk, colluded in the alteration of “marked-to-market” valuations of assets by Denis Minayev who “re-marked ” Braga’s trading book on 66 occasions to falsify market values to hide speculation losses,

Spain and Italy have re-entered their recession’s joining the UK and Greece, which are slumping deeper. The net Euro economy to Shrink with Greece GDP likely shrinking 4.7 percent, while the economies of Spain and Italy are seen falling 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. The lights go out in Spain as cuts plunge highways into darkness

Moody’s Investors Service will this month start cutting the credit ratings of more than 100 banks. BNP Paribas SA, France’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest, and New York-based Morgan Stanley face having their short- and long-term debt downgraded to their lowest-ever levels by February. The cuts, which follow downgrades by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings last year, would erode profits, trigger margin calls and leave some firms unable to borrow from money- market funds that have strict rules on who they can lend to.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like the head and shoulder sell signal is getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Today Sy Harding discovered what we have been saying for months now. Most of the world markets look like head and shoulder bear markets. We are waiting only for the final shoe to fall when the second neckline of the like head and shoulder is broken.
http://www.streetsmartpost.com/


Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported last month that revenue from trading stocks, bonds and other securities dropped 14 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. That followed a 21 percent decline in trading revenue for 2011, the worst performance since 2008.

There are three risks to worry about: the upcoming "fiscal cliff" at year-end 2012 and a worsening of the eurozone debt crisis. “Operation Twist” currently ends in June, Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, automatic spending cuts are set to be triggered and the aforementioned stimulus programs are winding down. Cuts to stimulus alone, even with an extension of tax cuts, will be a drag on the US economy in the short term. On Europe:



MBA Mortgage Index 05/05 1.7% improved from 0.1% due to seasonal effects

Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.9% not as bad a build up

Crude Inventories 05/05 3.652M increased from 2.840M as commodities fall.

Yesterday there was extensive data manipulation by shifting bad news backwards after reporting it. These are the potential maximum levels of mis-reporting by Dumbama.



Initial Claims 05/05 367K down from 368K 365K reported

Initial Claims 05/05 370K up from 365K likely got worse



Continuing Claims 04/28 3229K down from 3290K reported

Continuing Claims 04/28 3243K down from 3276K likely improved less



Trade Balance Mar -$51.8B worsened from -$45.4B

Export Prices ex-erg. Apr 0.2% down from 0.5% deflation

Import Prices ex-oil Apr 0.1% down from 0.5% deflation

Treasury Budget Apr $59.1B increased from -$40.4B due to April tax collection.



This Week

May 11 8:30 AM PPI Apr

May 11 8:30 AM Core PPI Apr

May 11 9:55 AM Mich. Sentiment May



Market outlook May 11, 2012

Markets have been tumbling over night. Banking speculation and fraud contagion remains a fear as banks fire Moody’s because they do not want the world to know just how badly they have misappropriated investor wealth with their continuing Ponzi derivative schemes.

No Dow Rails confirmation means there is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is still looking like a head and shoulder Dow sell signal forming not a buy signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months), the New York Stock exchange second neckline was confirmed having broken below the first neckline and now the second neckline is being tested. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For a Dumbama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Dumbama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

We expect the VIX to soar and be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Dumbama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index has just peaked this past month at only at 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Markets are tumbling today.

Asian markets were down sharply last night. China down –0.6%, Hong Kong down –1.3%, India down –0.8%, S. Korea down –1.4%, Japan down –0.6%.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of +0.4% to-1.1%

American market futures are down about -0.4% in after hour trading at 8:30 AM EST

John Gault has been sitting on a pile of cash because he sees no point in working and creating jobs so that the Obama atheistic socialists can just confiscate his earnings with higher taxes.

American taxes have become legal extortion for socialists that use voter fraud so that the viscous and idle can get elected and rob the treasuries of Democratic Republics like the USA and our allies. So John Gault takes his money, closes shop and moves out of the USA to his safe haven.

We need to get Obama and his entire socialist following out of our American government. If we do not clean up America, there will be a WW III between the raging Nationalist and International Atheistic Socialists and a world-wide Holocaust of intelligent humans everywhere who do not fit the socialist cradle to grave care routine (which intelligent people recognize as the definition of universal slavery).  And if America does not have its act together there will be no one left to rescue the world this time.

socialist cradle to grave care = universal slavery


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided. During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point

.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



World market this week

Moody’s Investors Service will this month start cutting the credit ratings of more than 100 banks. BNP Paribas SA, France’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest, and New York-based Morgan Stanley face having their short- and long-term debt downgraded to their lowest-ever levels by February. The cuts, which follow downgrades by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings last year, would erode profits, trigger margin calls and leave some firms unable to borrow from money- market funds that have strict rules on who they can lend to. Without access to funding from private sources, banks have had to sell assets and reduce lending Greek stock index hits near 20-year low Fascist (nationalist) socialism and Communist (international socialism) grows in France and Greece again as it did in Europe before the last two world wars. Today in Europe stocks fell, sending Europe’s benchmark gauge to the lowest level in four months, while the euro weakened and Spanish default risk climbed to a record as investors awaited resolution to Greece’s political impasse. U.S. stock-index futures and precious metals also declined.

The election in Greece has led to the rise of extreme nationalist and communist socialists and a completely dysfunctional government. They will try soon to elect an equal or worse dysfunctional government, as it is a clever way to blame Angela Merkel for the failure of Christian Socialism (the only socialism in the world besides the ELCA) that claims it tries to be compassionate.

“Greece has got some strong cards to persuade them to go easy on austerity,” said John Whittaker, an economist at Lancaster University Management School in England. Everyone fears a Greek departure from the euro because they’ll lose money and lose political capital because the world will see that compassionate Christian Socialism is no more viable than Nationalist Socialism, International Socialism, or Napoleonic Slavery. Napoleonic National Socialism introduced slavery in France to rebuild many of the Roman landmarks such as ruined aqueducts and coliseums in France.

Bombardier Inc, the world’s third- biggest maker of commercial jets, said first-quarter sales declined 25 percent and profit fell 16 percent as the company delivered fewer aircraft.

Sony Corp is cutting 10,000 jobs after four straight years of losses, forecast a profit that was less than half of what analysts estimated.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sold all its Irish and Portuguese government bonds and reduced debt holdings in Italy and Spain amid a broader strategy to cut investments in Europe. They warned that Europe faces considerable challenges.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like the head and shoulder sell signal is getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported last month that revenue from trading stocks, bonds and other securities dropped 14 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. That followed a 21 percent decline in trading revenue for 2011, the worst performance since 2008.

There are three risks to worry about: the upcoming "fiscal cliff" at year-end 2012 and a worsening of the eurozone debt crisis. “Operation Twist” currently ends in June, Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, automatic spending cuts are set to be triggered and the aforementioned stimulus programs are winding down. Cuts to stimulus alone, even with an extension of tax cuts, will be a drag on the US economy in the short term. On Europe:

The Obama Regime will have created $6 Trillion new debt in its four years or $1.5 Trillion debt per year. The highest deficit of the George W Bush presidency was $half-a-trillion or one third the Dumboma debt rate and President Bush handled the Bill Clinton Dot Com bubble crash, the 911 attack and two big spending Congresses controlled by the Democrat-socialists.

Obama’s tax rebate for his voting welfare constituency is so corrupt there are actually thousands of identity thefts even of “dead people” getting income tax money back from Obama. This is money back for Obama supporters who paid no income taxes at all. That cash flow was already baked into the USA economy in the first quarter. Now the world’s real economic crunch is starting. We need to get Obama out of office or we are headed for the “Dumbama Depression.”



Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 05/05 1.7% improved from 0.1% due to seasonal effects

Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.9% not as bad a build up

Crude Inventories 05/05 3.652M increased from 2.840M as commodities fall.


This Week

May 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/05

May 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 04/28

May 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Mar

May 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Apr

May 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Apr

May 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Apr

May 11 8:30 AM PPI Apr

May 11 8:30 AM Core PPI Apr

May 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment May



Market outlook May 10, 2012

The world flight to American stocks is almost over as American stocks have been made vulnerable by Obama spending on his growing unemployable voting block. Instead of welfare, the unemployable should be required to attend reading, language lessons, character lessons, and math classes in order to receive their welfare checks.

This shift from US Treasuries to American Stocks probably is why we are not already at a new stock market low. This has been the entire stock market support since the fall of 2011. Cramer wonders when it will start to kick in, but in reality just over. Once the stock market drops 10%, bond investors will realize they made a bad move into the US stock market. They may decide to join John Galt too.

No Dow Rails confirmation means there is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is still looking like a head and shoulder Dow sell signal forming not a buy signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months), the New York Stock exchange second neckline was confirmed having broken below the first neckline and now the second neckline is being tested. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Dumbama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;



We expect the VIX to soar and be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index has just peaked this past month at only at 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Asian markets were down slightly last night. China flat, Hong Kong down –0.5%, India down –0.3%, S. Korea down -0.3%, Japan down –0.4%.

European markets were up half way through their day in a range of +0.8% to-0.2%

American market futures are up about 0.4% in after hour trading at 8:30 AM EST