We are much worse off now with Obama in 2012 than we were with Bush when Obama took office. If there is no income all Obama can do is spend America into bankruptcy.

The socialists are very close to turning America into a Welfare State like Greece. Gallup reported that registered voters are more likely to say Mitt Romney, if elected president, would do a very good or good job of handling the economy than they are to say President Obama would, if re-elected -- 61% vs. 52%.  However if everyone on welfare voted. Obama would win by a landslide.  See:    http://www.staged.com/video?v=x4u


According to a poll released Tuesday night by E-Poll Market Research, Facebook scored a 5 in terms of trustworthiness, compared with 13 for Google.

The Baltic Dry Index is declining again and it is already less than 10% of its 2008 high. Not only did the Dow Rails fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal but the Industrials now joined the Rails and both are testing their lows together and could break down and both say sell today. The rails are within 0.5% and the Industrials are about 1% away from a Dow sell signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Illegal immigrants from Mexico now spurn fieldwork and take jobs from American construction workers. States in the southern and southwestern U.S. have passed immigration crackdowns, and the Supreme Court signaled last week it might be prepared to support an Arizona law that requires police to check the immigration status of anyone they suspect is in the country illegally during stops, arrests or detentions. See: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-30/immigration-stalls-as-opportunities-wane-on-u-s-mexican-border.html

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 48% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided. Given the chance, 68% would vote to replace the entire Congress and start from scratch.

Rasmussen was within 0.5% accuracy on both candidates in the 2008 election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



World market this week

Greece is starting to have runs on banks as citizens withdraw their Euros before Greece is kicked off the Euro and all the savings of the Greek people is devalued with Greek currency. The European Central Bank said it would temporarily stop lending to some Greek banks to limit its risk as President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB won’t compromise on key principles to keep Greece in the euro area. The Greek socialists are predicted to win a ruling majority with the next election.  The fear is that people in Italy and Spain will also panic and run on their banks.  There are not enough euro's in circulation  if everyone panics.  Even the German banks would have to close.
Risk of multiple crashing world stock markets is at a high now. The pall of the Obama 2007-2008 declared worldwide Great Depression grew last month as European exports and consumer demand dropped in March and as the euro region’s spreading fiscal crisis undermined the economy further.

The spread investors demand to hold benchmark German debt instead of Spanish 10-year bonds widened to a euro-era record of more than 5 percentage points. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain faces being shut out of financial markets as their interest costs rise. Spanish banks may be downgraded again today. Spanish bonds fell after borrowing costs rose at a debt sale. Greece’s 2 percent security maturing in February 2023 declined more than 13.54 percent in the last two weeks.

This week started with Irish two-year yields jumping 55 basis points to 6.84 percent. .55/(6.84-.55) = a 8.7% loss in value in one day. France auctioned two-, three-, four- and five-year securities. The average yield on the September 2014 notes was 0.74 percent, compared with 0.85 percent at the last auction on April 19. On the February 2017 debt, it was 1.72 percent, down from 1.83 percent in the previous sale. Interest rates fall as depression gloom descends. Europe is becoming another failed socialist Japan. Japan has been stuck with low interest and low growth for over twenty years.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are still going lower (not good). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets just gave a head and shoulder sell signal now and are getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Wall street is beginning to shake now. Hedgefund managers are running scared, so scared no one dares to say anything that could rock the boat. We are on the cusp of a market collapse similar to last August. The American economy is going nowhere but the MSNBC hype of Jim Cramer suddenly went cold and Jim was running scared last night.

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 05/12 9.2% up from 1.7% seasonal

Housing Starts Apr 717K up from 699K seasonal

Building Permits Apr 715K up from 769K seasonal

Industrial Production Apr 0.6%% up from 0.0% adjusted for manipulation

Capacity Utilization Apr 79.2% up from 78.6% good

Crude Inventories 05/12 2.128M down from 3.652M

Today

May 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/12

May 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/05

May 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed May

May 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Apr



Market outlook May 17, 2012

A major “Head and Shoulders Sell signal” was give in the NYSE. The risk of world wide market crashes is high now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=6m;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

More and more analysts were pointing out that the market is topping and has not been able to break out the top. Selling was broad-based again yesterday on higher volume. We are testing lows again and a downside breakout is again a real threat today even with the safe-haven DOW Industrials and Rails. The DJI has some grossly inflated stock prices and is no longer reflecting the stock market because people go to the DJI when they are afraid and seek safety during uncertainty. Consequently we no longer see the DJI as a safe haven.

The Rails are about 0.5% away from another mutual sell signal. The DOW Rails needed to break their July 7, 2011 high to give a buy signal but that never happened. No Dow Rails confirmation means there has been no DOW buy signal for the last year since the collapse on August 2, of 2011. The DOW Theory Industrials and Rails confirmed sell signal of August 2, 2011 therefore still holds. It is still looking like a new head and shoulder Dow sell signal confirmation is forming not a buy signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The DJI is about 1% away from its first new sell signal since August 2, 2011. It looks like the collapse of 2008 about to happen again. But we all know in our minds that Obama has destroyed the American economy with his socialist corruption transferring taxpayer money to scam artists, identity thieves, liars, unions and making many Americans dependant on food stamps. We are much worse off now with Obama in 2012 than we were with Bush when Obama took office. Obama is so simple minded he does not understand that the Robin Hood principle of stealing from the rich to give to the poor only works when there is someone who still makes a profit… an income. If there is no income all Obama can do is spend America into bankruptcy. But once you begin to steal from productive people they refuse to be enslaved so they withdraw from the world and join John Gault. They live off their cash. Then the socialist system collapses, as did Communism in 1989. If you take their cash and murder the productive people as they did in the USSR, China, and Cambodia the collapse is even faster and there is starvation. America, the wealthiest country in the world could be facing starvation with another four years of simple-minded Obama bumbling.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

On a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) the NYSE gave a sell signal. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Asian markets were up last night. China up 1.4%, Hong Kong down –0.3%, India up 0.2%, Singapore down –0.3%, Japan up 0.9%.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of –1.7% (Britain) to +0.1% (Swiss).

American market futures are down at about –0.4% in after hour trading at 8:00 AM EST